Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing renewed focus following a price surge above $63 per ounce, indicating strong upward momentum and potential for further increases [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Analysts note a significant increase in bullish sentiment as the gold-silver ratio briefly surpassed 80 but could not hold, leading to renewed interest from buyers [1][2]. - The recent price increase has prompted market participants to adjust their stop-loss levels, reflecting high confidence in the silver market's future performance [3][4]. Supply and Demand Factors - The ongoing global electrification and expansion of AI infrastructure are driving industrial demand for silver, while supply constraints remain unaddressed [4]. - The supply-demand gap is becoming a crucial factor in driving silver prices, reinforcing the market's belief in a long-term upward trend [4]. Valuation Perspective - Despite silver prices stabilizing above $63, they remain relatively low compared to gold prices, with historical gold-silver ratios typically ranging between 50 and 60 [4]. - Analysts predict the gold-silver ratio may decline to around 40, which could accelerate silver price increases, indicating that its relative value has not been fully realized [4]. Future Outlook - There are expectations that silver prices could reach $75 per ounce by 2026, with potential price adjustments providing attractive buying opportunities [2][5]. - Factors such as anticipated loose monetary policy, balance sheet expansion, and ongoing fiscal stimulus are expected to boost demand for hard assets, including precious metals [2][5]. - A recent 25 basis point interest rate cut has lowered policy rates to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, enhancing expectations for further monetary easing [2][5]. Long-term Investment Logic - The combination of multiple driving forces suggests a solid upward logic for precious metals, with silver offering a more attractive value proposition compared to gold [5]. - The potential for silver prices to rise further remains significant, with long-term investment value still worthy of attention in the current macroeconomic environment [5].

Group 1 - The silver price has surpassed $63 per ounce, attracting significant attention in the precious metals market, with potential for further increases [1] - The recent trend indicates a shift in capital back into the silver market, with $48 per ounce seen as a re-entry point for many investors, laying the groundwork for future price increases [1] - The core driver of rising prices is the expanding real demand, particularly due to the acceleration of global electrification and increased metal material needs in AI infrastructure [3] Group 2 - The silver market is characterized by a long-term tight supply and increasing demand, which is a key reason for the strong price performance [3] - Despite silver prices reaching $63, it remains undervalued compared to gold, with historical gold-silver ratios typically between 50 and 60, and some forecasts suggesting a potential drop to around 40 [3] - Retail investment demand remains resilient, providing additional support to the market, while recent policy rate cuts have contributed to a more accommodative monetary environment [3] Group 3 - Multiple factors, including potential declines in real yields and resistance in the dollar, contribute to a long-term bullish outlook for silver prices [4] - The silver market is currently in a phase of value reappraisal, indicating that the upward trend in silver prices may not be over and warrants ongoing attention [4]

12月12日，周五，亚市早盘，现货黄金在经历前一夜大涨之后，目前在开盘价稍低点位开始横盘震荡。 昨天黄金的走势也如我们预期的一样，白盘一直在4215美元附近横盘震荡，最低点位在4205美元附近， 美盘强势拉升至4285美元。昨天文章给到的就是黄金回踩4200-4205多进场，不过目标只给到4250附 近，没想到晚间的涨势如此凶猛，还好利润也比较可观。 在全球经济不确定性笼罩下，黄金作为传统避险资产再次闪耀光芒。周四（12月11日），随着美联储连 续第三次降息25个基点，黄金价格强势反弹，现货黄金上涨约1.2%，触及每盎司4285美元的逾一个月 高点，而白银更是创下每盎司64.30美元的历史新高。这一轮贵金属行情的爆发，不仅源于美元走软和 通胀压力持续，还受到了即将公布的非农就业报告以及全球地缘政治动荡的推动。投资者们应密切关注 这些因素如何交织影响黄金的未来走势。 基本消息面： 美联储的货币政策调整无疑是此次黄金价格上涨的核心催化剂，尽管市场对此已有广泛预期，但美联储 决策者的措辞和预测显示出鸽派倾向，他们强调将监测劳动力市场趋势，并承认通胀"仍然偏高"，这种 表态让投资者解读为进一步降息的可能性并未完全关闭 ...

美联储召开本年度最后一次联邦公开市场委员会会议后，公布了两项引发市场广泛关注的重大决策。一是将联邦基金利率下调25个基点，即实施0.25%的降 息操作。该决策没啥好多说的，市场早已知晓。 二是美联储重启美国国债购买计划，初始规模为每月400亿美元，并保留未来进一步扩大购买规模的可能性。 首先需要明确一个基本事实：美联储确实是美国国债的最大持有者。 当前美国国债总规模已突破36万亿美元，这一数字令全球瞩目。在外国投资者中，日本、英国和中国是最大的持有国，三者合计持有2.75万亿美元，尽管数 额庞大，但与美联储的持仓规模相比仍相形见绌。 | Reserve Bank credit, related items, and | | | Averages of daily figures | | Wednesd | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | reserve balances of depository institutions at | | Week ended | | Change from week ended | Dec 10, 2 | | Federal R ...

周四随着美联储连续第三次降息25个基点，黄金日内震荡来回洗盘，美盘后强势反弹，凌晨直接触及4286，白银也是跟着黄金继续创下新高。我们昨日实时 公开给出的4232多和4210多都大赚，实战更是在4206接近日内最低点的多！ 美联储宣布从12月12日起购买约400亿$短期国债，管理市场流动性，进一步扩大了资产负债表，结束了2022年以来量化紧缩的进程。这种流动性注入对风险 资产构成利好，但对美元等避险资产形成压力，所以就对黄金形成了支撑。美指疲软、通胀持续、美债收益率下滑以及地缘政治风险，共同驱动黄金上涨。 黄金如果能顶破4300关口，或许预示着新一轮牛市的开启，今日短线顺势回落多为主。下方支撑4265，接近不破多。下方强支撑4250，假设黄金继续震荡关 注4235支撑。上方阻力关注4308，这里如果强势突破上方可以看向4330，甚至4350。 本轮预测在12月21日，也就是冬至附近，黄金可能会有新的转折! 【汇金趋势掌乾坤，每日思路见真章】 【操作思路】 回落4265附近短多，进一步关注4250支撑 反弹4308不破轻仓短空，强势冲高关注4330压制 更多实时关注李槿后续 昨日一路做多一路胜！成功五连胜收尾！ ...

Jerry Chen说，由于美联储过去三年实行量化紧缩，资产负债表规模已经从峰值的9万亿美元回落至6.6 万亿美元，银行准备金降至2.9万亿美元的警戒线，且回购市场过去两个月始终处于不稳定状态（融资 利率一度超过利率区间上限），种种迹象说明市场流动性已经收紧至可能影响货币政策传导的程度。因 此，美联储重启扩表已经迫在眉睫，只是时间点比预期来的更早。 Jerry Chen表示，虽然美联储仅为购买短期国债，但在12月刚结束量化紧缩（QT）后马上开始扩表，还 是给投资者带来一定的想象空间。过去两个月，美联储已经通过公开市场操作在向市场进行流动性呵 护，在年底的流动性投放对市场来说相当于是一份圣诞大礼。 美国劳工部当日公布的数据显示，美国上周首次申领失业救济的人数为23.6万，高于市场预期的21.9万 和前一周修订后的19.2万。 个股方面，由于甲骨文公司在10日晚些时候发布的财报显示，在截至11月30日的一个季度，该公司实现 160.6亿美元营业收入，低于市场预期的162.1亿美元。同时，甲骨文公司上调资本支出预期，引发投资 者担忧。甲骨文公司股价当日显著下跌。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经纽约12月11日电（ ...

另外，上周末，伯里还对美国AI巨头发出警告称，OpenAI将是下一个网景，注定要失败。伯里的言 论，剑指美国股市当下最受追捧的科技交易，暗示这类交易风险巨大。在发表上述言论之前，伯里近期 还披露了做空头寸并抨击了AI芯片巨头英伟达。 当地时间周三，电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）在社交媒体上发帖称，美联储 重启购买短期国债的举动，凸显美国银行体系的脆弱。伯里还对美联储与美国财政部行动的一致性表示 担忧。 "大空头"伯里，发出多个警告！ 伯里认为，美联储现在似乎在每次危机后都会扩大其资产负债表，以避免银行系统的资金压力，他说这 种动态有助于解释股市的强势。 "这种做法实际上的极限，可能是美国债券市场的完全国有化——即美联储持有所有40万亿美元的美国 债务。所以，继续狂欢吧，我猜。"伯里写道。 美联储本月早些时候正式结束了量化紧缩政策。自2022年以来，其资产负债表已缩减了约2.4万亿美 元。这一举措出台之际，融资市场，特别是规模达12万亿美元的回购市场，正显示出日益增长的波动 性。 短期回购利率已多次突破美联储的目标区间，引发了市场对流动性的担忧。Evercore ISI、美国银 ...

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry, the figure behind "The Big Short," warns that the Federal Reserve's resumption of short-term Treasury purchases highlights the fragility of the U.S. banking system and expresses concerns about the alignment of actions between the Fed and the U.S. Treasury [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Burry indicates that the Fed's decision to restart purchasing short-term Treasury bonds, estimated at $35 billion to $45 billion monthly, signals increasing dependency of the banking system on Fed support [3]. - He emphasizes that without the Fed's support of over $3 trillion in reserves, the U.S. banking system would struggle to operate, marking a rapid decline in the system's strength compared to previous years [3]. - The Fed's recent end to quantitative tightening, which saw a reduction of approximately $2.4 trillion in its balance sheet since 2022, coincides with rising volatility in the $12 trillion repo market [4]. Group 2: Concerns Over AI Sector - Burry warns that the most popular trades in the U.S. stock market, particularly in the AI sector, are brewing a crisis, specifically targeting OpenAI, which he believes is destined to fail [6]. - He compares OpenAI to Netscape, suggesting that the company is burning cash rapidly and will not meet its financial needs despite raising $60 billion [6]. - Burry has also criticized Nvidia, indicating concerns over its GPU inventory and the sustainability of its AI infrastructure spending [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Recent market movements show a significant drop in tech stocks, with Oracle falling over 11% and Nvidia nearly 2%, amid fears of an AI valuation bubble [2]. - British pension funds are reducing their exposure to U.S. stocks due to concerns over the AI sector's inflated valuations, managing over £200 billion in assets [8]. - The European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund have echoed warnings about the high valuations of U.S. tech stocks, suggesting that a shift in market sentiment could pose significant risks [9].

伯里还对美联储提出这一操作的时机提出了质疑，指出财政部一直在发行更多的短期票据，以避免推高 10年期美债收益率。他暗示，美联储决定集中购买这些短期票据看起来"极其巧合"。 伯里认为，美联储现在似乎在每次危机后都会扩大资产负债表，以避免银行系统的融资压力，他说这种 动态有助于解释股市的强劲表现。他写道： "这种做法的实际极限可能是美国债券市场的全面国有化，即美联储拥有全部40万亿美元的 美国债务。所以我猜，继续狂欢吧。" 美联储在本月早些时候正式结束了量化紧缩（QT），该央行自2022年以来已减持约2.4万亿美元资产。 此举正值融资市场，特别是规模达12万亿美元的回购市场显示出日益剧烈的波动之际。 周三，因电影《大空头》而闻名的投资者迈克尔·伯里警告称，美联储重启国债购买的举动与其说是为 了稳定，不如说是金融系统对美联储支持的依赖日益增加。 伯里引用《金融时报》的一篇博客文章称，美联储开始"储备管理购买"（RMPs）的计划表明美国银行 系统的脆弱性日益增加。 美联储本月决定停止缩减资产负债表，并在周四宣布准备每月购买约350亿至450亿美元的国债，分析师 预计这一举措将于明年1月开始。伯里对此说道，"我想补充的 ...

SHMET 网讯：北京时间周四（11日）凌晨，美联储公布12月利率决议。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以9-3的方式决定 下调利率区间25个基点至3.50%-3.75%，这也是今年连续第三次降息，米兰倾向于下调50个基点，堪萨斯联储主席施密德再次 投下反对票，倾向于维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变，这一次他获得了芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比的支持。 美联储同时宣布，将启动短期国债购买计划，以此调节市场流动性水平，确保央行对自身利率目标体系保持稳定控制。 美联储在季度经济展望（SEP）中上修经济预测，通胀预测小幅下修，就业市场基本稳定，备受关注的点阵图预测明年或 仅降息1次，与9月一致。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，目前联邦基金利率已处于中性利率的大致预估区间内，完全 有条件静观经济走势的变化。货币政策并非遵循预设路径，我们将在每次会议上根据实际情况作出决策。 经济前景稳定 美联储决议声明显示，经济活动正以温和步伐扩张。今年以来，就业岗位增长有所放缓，失业率截至9月已小幅上升。近 期公布的更多指标也与上述趋势相符。通胀水平自年初以来有所抬头，目前仍处于偏高区间。 鲍威尔在发布会上透露，降息决定绝非一项轻而易举的决策 ...