Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and characteristics of money, emphasizing the enduring value of gold as a form of hard currency in the context of economic changes and currency wars [1][4][11]. Group 1: Characteristics of Money - Money solves the problem of transferring economic value across time and space [1]. - Traditional barter systems fail due to mismatches in value, time, and space, necessitating a universally accepted medium of exchange [1]. - Any item can theoretically serve as money, but it must possess salability, meaning it should maintain value over time and be easily divisible and transportable [1]. - Successful currencies historically have mechanisms to limit their supply to preserve value [4]. Group 2: Hard vs. Soft Currency - Hard currency is defined by its difficulty to increase supply, while soft currency is easier to produce [2]. - The stock-to-flow ratio is a clear indicator of a currency's hardness, with soft currencies leading to wealth transfer to those holding hard currencies [2]. Group 3: Gold as a Hard Currency - Gold's total reserve is approximately 4.8 billion tons, with 99% located in hard-to-extract areas, making its supply growth limited [4]. - Gold is not artificially producible, and the cost to synthesize it is extremely high, further restricting supply [4]. - Gold's annual production growth is minimal, averaging 1-2%, with a maximum of 3% in peak years [4][5]. Group 4: Historical Price Trends and Comparisons - Recent gold prices surged from around $2000/oz to approximately $3400, reflecting a steeper increase compared to previous cycles [8]. - Silver has failed in the currency competition due to its higher availability and industrial demand, leading to a significant price disparity with gold [8]. Group 5: Current Economic Context and Gold Demand - Gold prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors, including trade wars, stock market fluctuations, and central bank policies [12]. - Major consumers of gold, such as China and India, have seen a decline in consumption, which may affect future demand [12]. - Central banks are increasing gold reserves while reducing dollar holdings, indicating a shift in currency strategy [12]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to allocate 5-10% of an investment portfolio to gold, either in physical form or ETFs, while avoiding impulsive buying during price surges [12].

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 破晓笔记 来源：雪球 最近许多朋友问我疯王和关税的事 ， 按说 " 格系价投 " 是不考虑这种因素的 。 但作为经济学 爱好者 ， 我对此类话题也颇感兴趣 。 请注意 ， 这与投资没任何关系 ！ 格系价投 ， 是以 " 安全边际 " 为基石 ， 而非 " 政经分析 " 。 下面开始谈贸易 。 我发现许多朋友尚未搞清楚 " 贸易 " 的基本原理 ， 先简单念叨几句 。 初学经济 ， 总会被 " 贸易顺差 、 贸易逆差 " 等概念搞得一头雾水 。 删繁就简 ， 只说一个基 本的结论 ： 顺差是手段 ， 逆差是目的 。 翻译成人话 —— 赚钱 ， 是为了花 。 （ 这个应该没争议吧 ？ 你可能想把钱留给孩子 ， 那也 是为了花 。 ） 人们往往觉得 ， 顺差 、 逆差之类玄之又玄的东西 ， 离自己很远 。 其实恰恰相反 ， 当你发现 这就是你的生活 ， 经济问题就好理解了 。 1 、 你对 沃尔玛 ， 永远是逆差 。 你给它纸 ， 它给你货 。 2 、 你对你老板 ， 永远是顺差 。 他给你纸 ， 让你干活 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the current macroeconomic environment characterized by high interest rates, high inflation, and low growth, the value of gold as a hedge against dollar risk is strengthening, highlighting an important marginal change for gold prices [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold - The establishment and eventual collapse of the gold standard were influenced by the scarcity of gold and its perception as a symbol of wealth, leading to its natural monetary attributes [2]. - The collapse of the gold standard was accelerated by World War I, which resulted in high deficits and inflation, causing countries to restrict gold convertibility [2]. - The transition from the gold standard to the Bretton Woods system marked a significant shift, where the U.S. emerged as the primary beneficiary, but the system faced challenges due to the over-issuance of dollars and insufficient gold reserves [3][6]. Group 2: Evolution of the Global Monetary System - The formation of the Jamaica system in 1976 transitioned the international monetary system from a gold anchor to a credit anchor, allowing for floating exchange rates and decoupling currencies from gold [8]. - The U.S. remains the core of the global monetary system, with the Jamaica system creating a dollar circulation system contrary to the Bretton Woods framework [8]. Group 3: Current Macroeconomic Environment - The U.S. economy is currently facing challenges that affect the global monetary system, including high interest rates, high inflation, and low growth, leading to a complex interplay between fiscal, economic, and monetary policies [12]. - The demand for digital currencies and gold is increasing among global central banks as they navigate these challenges [12]. Group 4: Gold's Value in the Current Monetary System - While gold cannot replace the dollar, it serves as an important asset for hedging against dollar risks, particularly in light of long-term inflation risks and concerns over U.S. policy [15]. - The attributes of gold, including its anti-inflation, safe-haven, and credit properties, are becoming increasingly influential on gold prices, alongside the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [15].

以下文章来源于财经杂志 ，作者陈汐 刘建中 财经杂志 . 《财经》杂志官方微信。《财经》杂志由中国证券市场研究中心主办，1998年创刊，秉承"独立、独家、独到"的新闻理念，以权威性、公正 性、专业性报道见长，是政经学界决策者、研究者、管理者的必读刊物。 本文来自微信公众号： 财经杂志 ，作者：陈汐、刘建中（《财经》产业研究中心研究员），编辑：刘建中，责编：张生婷，题图来自：视觉中国 对于黄金，有些人执着地喜欢，有些人执着地抵触，更多的人是中间派。在黄金持续上涨后，中间派就深信"黄金保值""乱世黄金"；而持续下跌后， 他们就觉得黄金缺乏实用价值，没有未来。 2022年11月1日开盘，伦敦现货黄金价格为1632美元/盎司，随后黄金价格快速上涨。2025年2月24日，价格涨到2956美元/盎司，涨幅81.1%。28个月 增值超80%，黄金成了全球范围内最受关注的投资品之一。不少中国投资者计划投资黄金，但是普通人并不了解黄金。我们希望通过一系列文章，帮 助普通人了解黄金，建立起对黄金的基本认知。 投资黄金，第一个需要确认的问题是：黄金真的保值吗？如果从秦朝开始直到现在，黄金还保值吗？知道的历史越长，我们会越了解黄金。 ...