美联储的印钞机还未停，美国佛罗里达州已经要给美元制造新的法币对手、成为"去美元化"的一支力 量。 当地时间5月27日周二，佛罗里达州州长德桑蒂斯（Ron DeSantis）签署一项法案，要建立完整的贵金 属货币法律框架，正式承认黄金和白银为该州法定货币，声称要让佛州民众免受美元贬值的冲击。 该法案明确要求支票兑现机构或PayPal等支付服务商必须接受金银支付，还免除了符合条件且被归类 为"法定货币"的金币和银币在佛罗里达州缴纳销售税。 根据该法案，从2025年7月1日起，所有金银硬币必须标注重量、纯度和铸造来源。企业如要接受贵金属 支付需获得许可，政府机构也可通过电子转账或借记卡方式接受金银硬币缴税。 德桑蒂斯强调： 政治算盘：DOGE失利后的"金本位"牌 议员指1971年后美元购买力暴跌90% HB 999法案的发起人、共和党州众议员Doug Bankson用数据展示美元贬值的残酷现实：自1971年尼克 松总统宣布美元与黄金脱钩以来，美元的购买力已暴跌超过90%。 Bankson举例称，1979年购买一套平均价格7.5万美元的住房需要268盎司黄金。如今同样的房产价值53.1 万美元，但仍只需268盎司黄金 ...

美国人现在慌得连底裤都不要了。国会老爷们一边往俄乌战场砸钱，一边偷偷摸摸往提案里塞"恢复金本位"的私货，这操作比赌徒输红眼押上祖传金表还魔 幻。看看美联储的骚操作就更离谱：嘴上喊着"美元地位不可撼动"，背地里却让纽约联储官网挂出警告——"美元无法永久称王"。这波左右互搏的功夫，连 马保国看了都直呼内行！ 纽约曼哈顿街头的美国国债时钟疯了！每秒钟跳动3.8万美元的债务增量，把37万亿的赤字数字顶得比帝国大厦还高。就在五角大楼忙着往全球撒战争账单 时，中东油轮正满载人民币结算的原油驶向中国——今年前四个月，沙特对华石油出口的20%已经甩开美元，人民币直接拿下数千万吨原油订单。这场持续 了半个世纪的石油美元霸权，终于被撕开了第一道裂缝！ 为啥急着搬出金本位这块遮羞布？ 美国的债务窟窿已经大到能吞下整个日本GDP，光是去年利息就烧掉1.2万亿美元，比五角大楼军费开支还吓人。更绝的是借钱速度——今年一季度狂发6.9 万亿国债，三个月顶过去三年，这印钞机开得比双十一快递分拣线还忙活。国会预算办公室的预测更刺激：2031年就要掉进"财政悬崖"，社保基金2033年彻 底见底，到时候别说航母维护费，连退休金都得打白条。 二、石 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical performance of gold, its long-term returns, and factors influencing its price fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of understanding these elements for investment decisions [1][38]. Long-term Returns of Gold - Gold's long-term annualized return, adjusted for inflation, is approximately 0.6% from 1802 to 2021, indicating it has outperformed inflation over time [3][4]. - From 1971 to April 2025, gold's long-term annualized return is significantly higher at 8.6% [6]. Historical Bull and Bear Markets - The first bull and bear market occurred from 1971 to 2000, where gold surged from $37/oz to $850/oz, a 22-fold increase, followed by a 70% decline over the next 20 years [11]. - The second cycle from 2001 to 2016 saw gold rise to $1921/oz during the financial crises, followed by a 44% drop over six years [13]. - Post-2016, gold prices have been on an upward trend due to global uncertainties, including the pandemic and regional conflicts [15]. Volatility and Risk - Gold's volatility is around 28.93%, with a maximum drawdown of approximately 44%, comparable to a mixed fund with 60-70% equity exposure [17]. - Historical bear markets in A-shares have seen declines of up to 71%, indicating gold's risk level is slightly lower than equities but higher than bonds [17]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The primary factors affecting gold prices include: 1. **U.S. Dollar**: The real interest rate (nominal rate minus inflation) significantly impacts gold prices. A decrease in real rates typically leads to higher gold prices [21]. 2. **Mining Costs**: Current mining costs are around $1500/oz, and prices below this level may indicate a buying opportunity [24]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events like regional conflicts and financial crises often drive investors towards gold as a safe haven, increasing its price [25]. Investment Strategies and Considerations - Investment in gold can be categorized into three purposes: 1. **Decorative**: Jewelry, which has high premiums and is not primarily for investment [32]. 2. **Short-term Investment**: Gold funds, which are convenient for trading but may have management fees [33]. 3. **Long-term Hedge**: Physical gold, which serves as a hedge against extreme risks and is typically held long-term [35]. Conclusion - Gold remains a significant asset class for investment, with a long-term return that has improved since the end of the gold standard in 1971 [38]. - Key factors influencing gold prices include real interest rates, mining costs, and geopolitical risks, while its volatility is comparable to a mixed equity fund [39][40].

1969年7月20日，当全美民众围坐在黑白电视机前为阿波罗登月欢呼时，白宫地下掩体里，尼克松正对着一张泛黄的世界地图喃喃自语："黄金， 该死的黄金..." 两年后，这位以"终结越战"为竞选口号的总统，却在马里兰州森林深处的戴维营别墅里，悄然发动了一场比登月更震撼的金融政变 ——1971年8月15日那个闷热的夏夜，当尼克松在镜头前抹掉额头的冷汗，宣布"美元与黄金永久脱钩"时，华尔街的交易员们突然发现，自己手中 的证券代码正化作流沙，而远在东京的主妇们尚不知晓，她们存折上的数字即将开始一场长达半个世纪的慢性蒸发。 脱钩后的美元像脱缰野马般狂奔。1973年石油危机中，洛杉矶的加油站前排起三英里长队，主妇们攥着配给券在超市争抢最后罐装玉米；1980年 当金价飙升至800美元时，华尔街的交易员们发明了"恐慌指数"，而普通人的养老金却在14%的通胀中缩水成皱巴巴的废纸。更致命的是，挣脱黄 金枷锁的美国政府开启了疯狂印钞模式——1971年3980亿美元的国债如今已膨胀成36万亿的金融肿瘤，相当于每个新生儿降临美国时就背负着22 万美元的债务。 这场货币叛变的真正赢家悄然浮出水面。当硅谷新贵们在纳斯达克的电子屏前开香槟时，底 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 一、【直播回放】 有朋友问，历史上，黄金经历了哪些涨跌波动，收益率如何？ 连续上涨后，黄金目前估值如何？需要止盈吗？ 在今晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0429 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. 过去200多年里，黄金跑赢了通货膨胀 《股市长线法宝》最新版中，统计了黄金从1802年到2021年的年化收益率数据。 在剔除了通货膨胀之后，黄金长期年化收益率在0.6%上下。 这个数字是正的，说明黄金长期也跑赢了通货膨胀。 2. 黄金1971年之后，收益率大幅提升 不过黄金的长期收益有些特殊。 3. 黄金收益提升的原因：从金本位到纸币本位 在一百多年前，大多数国家，是处于金本位时代。 货币的发行会挂钩黄金。这种制度有利有弊。 好处是，金本位下，通货膨胀的数字是可控的，物价上涨比较慢。 缺点是限制了货币的供给，不利于社会经济发展。 从美国1929年大萧条之后，一直到二战，很多国家开始尝试废除金本位，改为纸币本位。 好处是货币供给大大增加，社会经济发展不再受 ...

Group 1 - The core event discussed is the stock market crash on October 24, 1929, known as "Black Thursday," which led to a significant economic downturn in the United States [1] - The stock index dropped from a peak of 363 to an average decline of 40%, resulting in massive financial losses for many Americans [1] - The Great Depression caused severe social issues, including a high dropout rate among students and a significant increase in unemployment, with 8.3 million unemployed in the U.S. and 5 to 7 million in the U.K. [1] Group 2 - President Roosevelt's initial response to the Great Depression involved addressing the banking crisis by ensuring banks could reopen and providing liquidity through the Federal Reserve [3] - Roosevelt abandoned the gold standard, which allowed the Federal Reserve to print more money without the constraint of gold reserves, thus injecting liquidity into the banking system [3][4] - Following the abandonment of the gold standard, public confidence returned, leading to a significant deposit of $1 billion into banks, which helped stabilize the financial system [4] Group 3 - Roosevelt's government spending initiatives aimed to stimulate the economy by providing wages to workers, which in turn increased consumer spending and economic activity [6] - The analogy of digging and filling holes illustrates how government spending can create jobs and stimulate demand across various sectors [6] - Some analysts argue that World War II played a crucial role in fully reviving the U.S. economy by creating demand for military supplies and industrial production [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and characteristics of money, emphasizing the enduring value of gold as a form of hard currency in the context of economic changes and currency wars [1][4][11]. Group 1: Characteristics of Money - Money solves the problem of transferring economic value across time and space [1]. - Traditional barter systems fail due to mismatches in value, time, and space, necessitating a universally accepted medium of exchange [1]. - Any item can theoretically serve as money, but it must possess salability, meaning it should maintain value over time and be easily divisible and transportable [1]. - Successful currencies historically have mechanisms to limit their supply to preserve value [4]. Group 2: Hard vs. Soft Currency - Hard currency is defined by its difficulty to increase supply, while soft currency is easier to produce [2]. - The stock-to-flow ratio is a clear indicator of a currency's hardness, with soft currencies leading to wealth transfer to those holding hard currencies [2]. Group 3: Gold as a Hard Currency - Gold's total reserve is approximately 4.8 billion tons, with 99% located in hard-to-extract areas, making its supply growth limited [4]. - Gold is not artificially producible, and the cost to synthesize it is extremely high, further restricting supply [4]. - Gold's annual production growth is minimal, averaging 1-2%, with a maximum of 3% in peak years [4][5]. Group 4: Historical Price Trends and Comparisons - Recent gold prices surged from around $2000/oz to approximately $3400, reflecting a steeper increase compared to previous cycles [8]. - Silver has failed in the currency competition due to its higher availability and industrial demand, leading to a significant price disparity with gold [8]. Group 5: Current Economic Context and Gold Demand - Gold prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors, including trade wars, stock market fluctuations, and central bank policies [12]. - Major consumers of gold, such as China and India, have seen a decline in consumption, which may affect future demand [12]. - Central banks are increasing gold reserves while reducing dollar holdings, indicating a shift in currency strategy [12]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to allocate 5-10% of an investment portfolio to gold, either in physical form or ETFs, while avoiding impulsive buying during price surges [12].

"谁拥有黄金，谁就制定规则"特朗普这句有关谈判的感悟，又让金本位记忆重现。 当前美国经历"股汇债"三杀，美元资产的避险属性陡然下降，特朗普对鲍威尔坚持不降息颇为不满，美 国经济的走向也破朔迷离。而4月22日，特朗普的一句黄金规则言论，直接拉爆黄金，一度突破3500 元，各个投行也紧急修订目标价，不过今日黄金就跌回3300区间。 作为第一黄金储备国的美国，同样拥有操控黄金市场的能力吗？这会是一轮国际金融规则主导权争夺战 吗？谁又能争夺到定价权？我们会回归金本位吗？ 避免投资风险，在乱局中看见本质，搜狐号财经投向预言家栏目推出【十问黄金分析师】系列专栏，本 期第二谈邀请三位重磅分析师为我们解读谁掌握了黄金： @李生论金（国家注册黄金分析师、《黄金操盘高手》作者、《理财周刊》十大金融名师） @金市大鲤（国家注册黄金分析师，杨家强） @ATFX（全球领先的差价合约在线交易平台）资深分析师Dean ＠ATFX-分析师Dean：不会，金本位可以保证物价稳定，但是，对于黄金匮乏的国家来说，经济的增 长潜力将遭受严重削弱。纸币本位制度虽然存在超额投放流动性，导致纸币信用降低的问题，但只要中 央银行具有独立性和专业性，就能够减 ...

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 破晓笔记 来源：雪球 最近许多朋友问我疯王和关税的事 ， 按说 " 格系价投 " 是不考虑这种因素的 。 但作为经济学 爱好者 ， 我对此类话题也颇感兴趣 。 请注意 ， 这与投资没任何关系 ！ 格系价投 ， 是以 " 安全边际 " 为基石 ， 而非 " 政经分析 " 。 下面开始谈贸易 。 我发现许多朋友尚未搞清楚 " 贸易 " 的基本原理 ， 先简单念叨几句 。 初学经济 ， 总会被 " 贸易顺差 、 贸易逆差 " 等概念搞得一头雾水 。 删繁就简 ， 只说一个基 本的结论 ： 顺差是手段 ， 逆差是目的 。 翻译成人话 —— 赚钱 ， 是为了花 。 （ 这个应该没争议吧 ？ 你可能想把钱留给孩子 ， 那也 是为了花 。 ） 人们往往觉得 ， 顺差 、 逆差之类玄之又玄的东西 ， 离自己很远 。 其实恰恰相反 ， 当你发现 这就是你的生活 ， 经济问题就好理解了 。 1 、 你对 沃尔玛 ， 永远是逆差 。 你给它纸 ， 它给你货 。 2 、 你对你老板 ， 永远是顺差 。 他给你纸 ， 让你干活 ...

Core Viewpoint - The value of gold as a hedge against dollar risk is strengthening in the context of high interest rates, high inflation, and low growth, despite the dollar remaining the center of the global monetary system [1][5]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold - The establishment and eventual collapse of the gold standard were influenced by historical events, particularly World War I, which led to high deficits and inflation, causing countries to restrict gold convertibility [1][2]. - The Bretton Woods system emerged as a beneficiary of the gold standard's collapse, but it faced challenges due to the over-reliance on the U.S. economy and the "Triffin dilemma," which ultimately led to its end [2]. - The formation of the Jamaica system in 1976 marked a shift from a gold anchor to a credit anchor, establishing a floating exchange rate system and decoupling currencies from gold [3]. Group 2: Current Global Monetary Environment - The current macroeconomic environment in the U.S. is characterized by high interest rates, high inflation, and low growth, creating tensions between fiscal, economic, and monetary policies [5]. - There is an increasing demand for digital currencies and gold among global central banks, reflecting systemic changes in the global economy post-pandemic [5][6]. Group 3: Gold's Role in the Current Monetary System - Gold cannot replace the dollar but serves as an important asset for hedging against dollar risks, particularly for non-U.S. economies facing domestic inflation and concerns over the dollar's credit system [6][7]. - The influence of gold's anti-inflation, safe-haven, and credit attributes on its price is becoming more pronounced, even as U.S. Federal Reserve policies remain a significant factor [7].