Core Viewpoint - The zinc market has been experiencing low-level fluctuations for nearly two months, with a focus on whether the supply from mines can meet demand in the future [2][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since early April, zinc has faced widespread selling due to escalating international trade tensions, remaining below 22,500 points [2]. - Recent maintenance at zinc smelting plants has been higher than usual, despite stable processing fees for zinc ore [3][4]. - A significant zinc smelting plant in southern China extended its maintenance period, impacting production by an estimated 20,000 to 40,000 tons, which led to a price increase [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The decline in social zinc inventory continues, although the demand from downstream sectors remains resilient [5]. - The real estate sector's weakness has slowed the destocking of galvanized inventory, with new construction area starting in the first four months of 2025 down 23.8% year-on-year [5]. - Domestic zinc imports have reached historical highs, contributing to a stable supply environment for smelting plants [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The mid-term outlook suggests increasing pressure on zinc supply due to the resumption of production at smelting plants and the seasonal slowdown in demand [7]. - Analysts predict that the zinc market may experience a shift towards a bearish trend as supply begins to outpace demand, with expectations of inventory accumulation starting in mid-June [7][8]. - The processing fees for zinc ore are expected to remain strong in the third quarter due to high demand, despite an anticipated oversupply of zinc ingots [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US economy is expected to slow down this year but not enter a recession, and there may be a rate cut in 2025, with growth projected between 0.5% and 1%. In China, since April, multiple sectors like consumption, investment, and industrial production have shown positive trends under the coordinated action of macro - policies. [3] - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly. Refineries' profits have further recovered, production enthusiasm has increased, and overall production will continue to grow. Although the import window is currently closed, previously imported zinc is gradually flowing in. [3] - On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually warming up. However, the recent rise in zinc prices has weakened downstream bargain - hunting purchases, leading to a decline in spot premiums. Domestic social inventories have slightly increased, while overseas inventories continue to decline. The real estate sector at the end - user level has marginally improved but still drags down demand. [3] - Technically, the position has decreased. The price of zinc is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,455 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 06 - 07 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 210 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,691.5 dollars/ton, down 33 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai zinc is 222,642 lots, up 22 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 5,863 lots, down 3,884 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 1,701 tons, down 474 tons. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 46,351 tons (weekly), down 751 tons; the LME inventory is 164,200 tons, down 975 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,650 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,410 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 195 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the LME zinc forward premium (0 - 3) is - 20.95 dollars/ton, up 1.43 dollars. - The factory - delivered price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,680 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), an increase of 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons (monthly), up 18,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons. - The social inventory of zinc is 67,700 tons (weekly), up 700 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production value of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons (monthly), down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons (monthly), down 120,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters (monthly), up 63.8246 million square meters; the housing completion area is 130.6027 million square meters (monthly), up 42.9606 million square meters. - The automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles (monthly), down 454,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units (monthly), up 3.4764 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money call option is 16.28% (daily), down 0.56%; the implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money put option is 16.28% (daily), down 0.56%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 11.86% (daily), down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 16.75% (daily), down 0.02%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - In April, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, 0.5 percentage points faster than the previous month, and increased by 0.24% month - on - month. The "trade - in" policy drove the continuous improvement of products such as automobiles and home appliances. The retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment of units above the designated size increased by 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% respectively. The national online retail sales increased by 7.7% compared with the previous year. - From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 1.47024 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. Excluding real estate development investment, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 8.0%. Infrastructure investment increased by 5.8% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 8.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.3%. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that he expects the US economy to slow down this year but not enter a recession, and reiterated that there may be a rate cut in 2025. He said that the US economic growth this year may be between 0.5% and 1%. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The overall zinc production will continue to increase due to rising zinc ore imports, rising zinc ore processing fees, a significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, improved smelter profits, increased production enthusiasm, and the resumption of some maintenance and shutdown capacities [3]. - The subsequent refined zinc imports are expected to decline as the import window is closed and the import loss is expanding [3]. - The demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually warming up. The recent decline in zinc prices has improved the downstream's bargain - hunting purchasing atmosphere, with high spot premiums and a significant decline in domestic inventories, entering the traditional destocking cycle, while overseas destocking continues [3]. - The terminal real estate market has marginally improved but still drags down demand, and attention should be paid to subsequent favorable policy guidance [3]. - Technically, with a decrease in positions, attention should be paid to the MA10 support, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or go long on dips [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,590 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the 06 - 07 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,765 dollars/ton, up 60 dollars; the total position of Shanghai Zinc is 222,896 hands, down 3,156 hands [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 2,784 hands, down 736 hands; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 2,571 tons, up 971 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 47,102 tons (weekly), down 1,375 tons; the LME inventory is 167,050 tons (daily), down 900 tons [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 310 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 22.27 dollars/ton, up 5.07 dollars [3]. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,780 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons [3]. - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons (monthly), up 18,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 67,000 tons (weekly), up 800 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 130.6027 million square meters, up 42.9606 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money call option is 17.13% (daily), up 0.01%; the implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money put option is 17.14% (daily), up 0.02% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 11.75% (daily), up 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 16.86% (daily), down 0.22% [3]. Industry News - At the end of April, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. The stock of social financing scale was 424 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. In the first four months, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61 trillion yuan year - on - year; the RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 9.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 339.7 billion yuan year - on - year [3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that trade between China and the United States will increase significantly in the next 90 days. Enterprises will compete to increase inventory reserves, especially US importers may launch a new wave of buying, and China's exports will boom [3]. Viewpoint Summary - The overall zinc production will increase due to factors such as rising imports, processing fees, and sulfuric acid prices, as well as the resumption of some capacities [3]. - The refined zinc imports are expected to decline as the import window is closed and the loss is expanding [3]. - The downstream demand is warming up, with improved purchasing and falling inventories, but the real estate market still drags down demand [3]. - Technically, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are rising, and zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing. Coupled with a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits are further repaired, production enthusiasm increases, and overall production will continue to rise. Currently, the import window is closed, and import losses are expanding, so subsequent refined zinc imports are expected to decline. On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually picking up. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, the atmosphere of downstream bargain - hunting purchases has improved, the spot premium is high, domestic inventories have decreased significantly, entering the traditional destocking cycle, and overseas destocking continues. Terminal real estate has marginally improved but still drags on demand. Attention should be paid to subsequent favorable policy guidance. [3] - Technically, the price stands above the MA10 with support below, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or go long on dips. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,710 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan; the price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of Shanghai zinc is 130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,705 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars. [3] - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 226,052 lots, down 3,743 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,520 lots, up 11,528 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 1,600 tons, unchanged. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 47,102 tons, down 1,375 tons; the LME inventory is 167,950 tons, down 1,900 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,840 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,970 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan. [3] - The basis of the main ZN contract is 130 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 27.34 US dollars/ton, up 0.03 US dollars. [3] - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,600 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. [3] - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons, up 18,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. [3] - The zinc social inventory is 67,000 tons, up 800 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production value of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. [3] - The newly started housing area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the completed housing area is 130.6027 million square meters, up 42.9606 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 17.12%, down 0.1%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 17.12%, down 0.1%. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 11.67%, up 0.6%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 17.07%, up 0.41%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - Internationally, the unadjusted CPI in the US in April increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected for the third consecutive month, the lowest level since February 2021; the core CPI was flat at 2.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. US President Trump pressured the Fed Chairman to cut interest rates as soon as possible. Traders continued to bet that the Fed would cut interest rates for the first time in September and for the second time in October. [3] - The European Central Bank Governing Council member Villeroy said that since trade tensions have not intensified inflation in the region, the central bank may cut interest rates again by summer. Governing Council member Rehn pointed out that increased defense spending does not necessarily push up inflation. [3] - Domestically, China adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the US from 34% to 10% and suspended the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for 90 days. [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - After the May Day holiday, SHFE zinc opened higher and then fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2506 closed at 22,355 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan or 0.67%, with shrinking volume and increasing positions. The zinc concentrate TC continued to rise in May, and the high price of by - product sulfuric acid improved the refinery's comprehensive profit. However, after the holiday, acid plants faced inventory accumulation, and the by - product price might weaken at high levels. Some refinery overhauls were postponed to May, but considering new production from Henan refineries and continuous supply from imports, zinc ingot supply was relatively abundant. On the demand side, the effect of export rush converged, and terminal enterprises were worried about overseas export orders, leading to inventory accumulation of raw materials and costs. In the future, post - holiday restocking and low social inventory levels will support zinc prices, but the medium - term supply - demand surplus will increase the expectation of inventory accumulation, and the upside space for SHFE zinc is limited, with a rebound on the short side [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: - For SHFE zinc 2505, the opening price was 22,600 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,765 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,810 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,600 yuan/ton, the change was +5 yuan, the change rate was 0.02%, the open interest was 11,055, and the change in open interest was - 1,267. - For SHFE zinc 2506, the opening price was 22,390 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,355 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,580 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,300 yuan/ton, the change was - 150 yuan, the change rate was - 0.67%, the open interest was 111,715, and the change in open interest was +5,719. - For SHFE zinc 2507, the opening price was 22,150 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,075 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,340 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,045 yuan/ton, the change was - 195 yuan, the change rate was - 0.88%, the open interest was 64,671, and the change in open interest was +5,515 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data led to a rebound in base metals. LME zinc first declined and then rose during the May Day holiday. After the holiday, SHFE zinc opened higher and then fluctuated weakly. The zinc concentrate TC continued to rise in May, with the domestic monthly TC rising by 50 to 3,500 yuan/metal ton and the imported monthly TC rising by 5 to 45 US dollars/dry ton. The upward repair speed of TC in the second quarter slowed down. The high price of by - product sulfuric acid improved the refinery's comprehensive profit, but after the holiday, acid plants faced inventory accumulation, and the by - product price might weaken at high levels. Some refinery overhauls were postponed to May, and if the overhauls were implemented, there would be concerns about supply reduction. However, considering new production from Henan refineries and continuous supply from imports, zinc ingot supply was relatively abundant. On the demand side, the effect of export rush converged, and terminal enterprises were worried about overseas export orders, leading to inventory accumulation of raw materials and costs [7]. 2. Industry News - **Shanghai Market**: On May 6, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,780 - 22,975 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was between 22,960 - 23,135 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 22,710 - 22,905 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 50 - 60 yuan/ton to the average price, and there were few quotes to the market. In the second trading session, the common domestic brands quoted a premium of 210 - 220 yuan/ton to the 2505 contract, Honglu - v quoted a premium of 220 yuan/ton to the 2505 contract, Huize quoted a premium of 600 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, the high - end brand Shuangyan quoted a premium of 330 - 380 yuan/ton to the 2505 contract, and Hazinc quoted a premium of 100 - 130 yuan/ton to the 2505 contract [8]. - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream brands of 0 zinc in the Ningbo market were traded at around 22,835 - 23,030 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo switched to quoting a premium of 460 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, with a flat price to the Shanghai spot. In the first period, Yongchang quoted a premium of 450 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, Qilin quoted a premium of 450 - 470 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, and Huize quoted a premium of 500 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract [8]. - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Guangdong was between 22,935 - 23,065 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a premium of 500 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract and a premium of 50 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened. Although there was a small amount of arrival in Guangdong during the holiday, the overall inventory was still at a low level, and the quoted spot premiums were relatively high [8][9]. - **Tianjin Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots in the Tianjin market was between 22,850 - 23,160 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was between 22,900 - 23,180 yuan/ton. The transaction price of 1 zinc ingots was around 22,230 - 22,470 yuan/ton, and Huludao was quoted at 26,220 yuan/ton. The common 0 zinc quoted a premium of 500 - 580 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, Zijin quoted a premium of 550 - 600 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, and the Tianjin market quoted a premium of about 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures such as the price trends of zinc in the two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory, but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [10][12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall zinc production will increase due to the rise in zinc ore imports, continuous increase in zinc ore processing fees, significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, further repair of smelter profits, increased production enthusiasm, and the recovery of some overhauled and shut - down capacities. The import of refined zinc is expected to decline significantly as the import window closes and import losses widen. On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season is gradually picking up, the downstream purchasing atmosphere at low prices has improved, the domestic inventory has decreased significantly and entered the traditional destocking cycle, and overseas destocking continues. The terminal real estate has marginally improved but still drags on demand. Technically, with an increase in positions and a break below the MA10 support, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,355 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the 06 - 07 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 280 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,607.5 dollars/ton, up 30 dollars; the total position of Shanghai Zinc is 215,039 lots, up 12,602 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 1,830 lots, down 2,385 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 2,252 tons, down 102 tons; the SHFE inventory is 48,477 tons, down 2,901 tons; the LME inventory is 172,925 tons, down 975 tons; the spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,860 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,710 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [3] 现货市场 - The basis of the ZN main contract is 505 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 37.09 dollars/ton, down 0.2 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,780 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons, up 18,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the social zinc inventory is 71,000 tons, down 1,900 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 130.6027 million square meters, up 42.9606 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 18.84%, up 1.06%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 18.84%, up 1.05%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 18.19%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 16.89%, down 0.37% [3] Industry News - In April, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 177,000, with an expected increase of 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. The final value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in April was 49, higher than the expected 48.7 and the initial value of 48.7; the final value of the French manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7, the highest since January 2023; the final value of the German manufacturing PMI in April was 48.4, the highest since August 2022. In April, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI and the composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Suggests going long with a light position on dips [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, and the Politburo meeting emphasizes support for the real economy. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports increase, refinery profits improve, and production will rise. The import window for refined zinc is closed, and imports are expected to decline. On the demand side, traditional peak - season demand is warming up, domestic and overseas inventories are decreasing, but the real - estate sector still drags down demand. Technically, positions are decreasing, and MACD forms a golden cross at a low level. It is recommended to focus on the MA10 support and go long on dips [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,520 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the 06 - 07 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 265 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,645.5 dollars/ton, down 42 dollars. The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 220,135 lots, down 5,844 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 2,459 lots, down 7,267 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 2,856 tons, down 329 tons. The SHFE inventory is 51,378 tons, down 7,207 tons; the LME inventory is 180,050 tons, down 2,250 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,880 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,540 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 360 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 33.73 dollars/ton, down 0.3 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,040 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - WBMS: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; LIZSG: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. ILZSG: The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons, up 18,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The social zinc inventory is 72,900 tons, down 5,300 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 130.6027 million square meters, up 42.9606 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money call option is 17.66%, down 0.19%; the implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money put option is 17.66%, down 0.2%. The 20 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 18.28%, down 0.3%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 17.38%, down 0.18% [3] Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell emphasizes the Fed's independence from political intervention, and the Fed enters a quiet period with an expected unchanged interest rate. The final value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April is 52.2, a new low since July 2022, and the one - year inflation rate expectation is 6.5%, a new high since January 1980. The Politburo meeting emphasizes timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to support the real economy [3] View Summary - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports and processing fees rise, refinery profits improve, and production increases. The import window is closed, and refined zinc imports are expected to decline. On the demand side, traditional peak - season demand is warming up, domestic and overseas inventories are decreasing, but the real - estate sector still drags down demand. Technically, positions are decreasing, and MACD forms a golden cross at a low level [3] 提示关注 - There is no news today [3]