Summary of Nickel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The nickel industry is significantly influenced by Indonesia's export ban and quota policies, which were implemented in 2019 to restrict raw material exports and promote domestic processing [1][4] - Indonesia holds approximately 48% of the world's nickel reserves, with a total global reserve of about 130 million metric tons [2] - The nickel market is expected to experience an oversupply in 2026, leading to price pressure, despite some short-term price support from changes in Indonesia's tax rates [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - The nickel market is projected to face a supply-demand imbalance in 2027 due to Indonesia's plans to tighten mining quotas, potentially leading to a supply shortage and price increases [1][2][3] - The demand for nickel is cyclical, with traditional peaks during the fourth quarter driven by stainless steel and electric vehicle (EV) tax policy adjustments [1][6] - **Impact of Indonesian Policies**: - Indonesia's mining policies have reshaped the global supply chain, pushing countries like China to establish smelting operations in Indonesia [4] - Recent announcements from the Indonesian Nickel Mining Association (APNI) regarding reduced mining quotas have significantly affected market sentiment, causing price fluctuations [8][12] - **Market Sentiment and Price Fluctuations**: - Market sentiment plays a crucial role in nickel price movements, with recent government statements causing sharp price declines despite unchanged fundamentals [12][29] - The government aims to maintain nickel prices at moderate levels to prevent excessive production from other countries while ensuring tax revenue [14] Additional Important Insights - **Production and Consumption**: - The nickel industry chain consists of four main segments: mining, intermediate products, refined products, and downstream applications [5][7] - The largest consumption of nickel is in stainless steel production, accounting for about two-thirds of total demand, while the electric vehicle sector represents around 14% [17][18] - **Future Projections**: - By 2027, China's refined nickel production capacity is expected to reach 470,000 tons, with ongoing enthusiasm for production despite limited domestic demand [19] - The global nickel market is anticipated to face a surplus of approximately 420,000 tons in 2025 and 430,000 tons in 2026, although actual surplus may be lower due to significant stockpiling actions in China [16] - **Challenges in the Nickel Market**: - The nickel market faces challenges from high raw material prices and historical inventory levels in stainless steel, which may lead to production cuts in response to supply-demand imbalances [25][29] - **Regulatory Changes**: - Indonesia has implemented new policies allowing mining companies to carry over unused quotas from previous years, which may alleviate some supply concerns [13][10] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the nickel industry, highlighting the critical influence of Indonesian policies, market dynamics, and future projections.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for nickel is "neutral", while the core view is "bullish". Specific aspects have different ratings: nickel ore price is "neutral", Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore is "bullish", freight is "neutral", refined nickel production is "bearish", refined nickel inventory (SMM) is "bearish", domestic NPI price is "bullish", nickel iron production is "bullish", nickel sulfate production is "bullish", stainless steel production schedule is "bullish", stainless steel social inventory is "bullish", and stainless steel cost is "bullish" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The current market focus has shifted to the RKAB quota approval in 2026, and the Indonesian Mining Association expects the relevant process to be completed within the next three months. Given the flexibility in policy implementation, there is a need to be vigilant about the deviation between the actual implementation of the quota and market expectations. Currently, nickel prices are supported by supply - side policy constraints and are expected to temporarily break away from the current pressure. However, as speculative funds drive the price to an overly optimistic range, nickel prices may be verified by the fundamentals [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News Update - Jilin Jien Nickel Industry Co., Ltd.'s 60,000 - ton nickel sulfate project was officially put into operation on December 31, 2025 [7] - Due to the non - approval of the 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota, PT Vale Indonesia Tbk has suspended its nickel ore mining activities [7] - On December 26, 2025, Shengtun Mining Group Co., Ltd. announced the termination of its investment in the 40,000 - ton high - grade nickel matte project in Indonesia [7] - The Indonesian Forest Law Enforcement Task Force (PKH) will fine 71 palm oil plantations and mining companies that violated forest area use as of December 8, 2025, including PT Weda Bay Nickel [7] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and the revised version will be announced in January or February [7] - The Indonesian government plans to cut the nickel ore mining quota in 2026, with the target set at about 250 million tons [7] 3.2 Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of SHFE nickel 2602 opened at 126,700 yuan/ton, closed at 132,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 135,570 yuan/ton and a low of 124,180 yuan/ton, up 4.81% for the week [9] - The main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,955 yuan/ton, closed at 13,125 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 13,200 yuan/ton and a low of 12,840 yuan/ton, up 1.31% for the week [78] 3.3 Price Changes - As of January 5, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 30 yuan/nickel point to 930 yuan/nickel point, a week - on - week increase of 3.33% [3][30] - As of January 5, the price of electrolytic nickel spot increased by 8,450 yuan/ton to 138,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.52% [16] - As of January 5, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 8,450 yuan/ton to 141,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.34%, and the premium increased by 300 to 7,400 yuan/ton [17] - As of January 5, the price of imported nickel increased by 8,150 yuan/ton to 134,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.44%, and the premium remained flat at 400 yuan/ton [17] - As of January 5, the LME nickel price increased by 1,530 US dollars/ton to 17,290 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71% [21] - As of January 6, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore remained flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [36] - As of January 2, the ex - works prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia remained flat at 22.5 and 51.9 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [36] - As of January 6, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased by 233 yuan/ton to 13,086 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.81% [88] 3.4 Supply and Demand - According to the monthly balance sheet of primary nickel in China, from May 2025 to May 2026, the total supply and demand of nickel are in a state of balance, with a supply surplus [4] - As of December 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.56 million tons to 3.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.37% [3][48] - As of December 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly output decreased by 1,640 tons to 29,200 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.47% [3][62] - As of December 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 226,000 tons to 3.2671 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.09% [3][81] - As of January 2, stainless steel social inventory decreased by 27,800 tons to 977,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.76% [3][84] 3.5 Inventory - As of January 6, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 878 tons to 39,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28%, and LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 360 tons to 255,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [52] - Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including SHFE) increased by 556 tons to 58,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.95% [3][52] - As of December 31, nickel ore port inventory decreased by 120,000 tons to 8.69 million wet tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.36% [39] 3.6 Production Cost - As of December 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel increased by 143 US dollars/ton to 13,351 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.08% [58] - As of December 2025, the production costs of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel were 111,026 yuan/ton and 124,817 yuan/ton respectively [58] - As of January 6, the production cash cost of RKEF in Fujian decreased by 0.57 yuan/nickel point to 940.34 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin increased by 3.31 percentage points to - 0.49% [74]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 印尼镍矿商协会透露，2026年工作计划和预算中提出的镍矿石产量或将约为 2.5 亿吨，较 2025 年 RKAB 中 3.79 亿吨的产量目标大幅下降；节日期间消息，淡水河谷印尼公司暂停镍矿开采因2026年生 产计划未获政府批准；据印尼镍矿商协会最新发布，2026年1月第一期镍矿内贸基准价较2025年12月第 二期呈现微涨态势。在消息面提振的背景下，周二夜盘沪镍触及涨停，周三日盘虽开板，但日内仍维持 高位震荡。 基本面来看，镍矿内贸价格和升水基本平稳运行。周度镍铁成交价格上涨，不锈钢供给收缩叠加价格走 强带动库存加速去化。原料价格强于成品，硫酸镍理论利润转亏，镍钴锂价格均有走强，需求走弱，终 端面临成本压力。一级镍来看，上周国内社会库存小幅增加，沪镍及LME库存有所去库。综合来看， 短期印尼政策刺激镍价走强，但基本面好转程度有限，继续关注政策实际落地情况和市场情绪走向。 资料来源：Wind、光大期货研究所 撰稿：史玥明 从业资格：F03097365 责任编辑：朱赫楠 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 印尼镍矿商协 ...

产业链呈现"上紧下弱"格局，矿端成本支撑强劲。龙头企业动态强化行业景气预期： 华友钴业：成本优势显著，2026年业绩预期亮眼，并与特斯拉、宁德时代等头部客户锁定数百亿长单， 反映下游需求韧性。 淡水河谷印尼：停产事件直接加剧市场对即时供应的担忧，是今日情绪催化关键。 ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍横盘后小涨，沪期镍主力月2602合约开盘报135000元/吨，盘中最高 报136120元/吨，最低价报133000元/吨，收盘报134100元/吨，上涨760元/吨，涨幅为0.57%，沪镍主力 月2602主力合约成交量366893手。 据长江有色属网统计：1月5日ccmn长江综合1#镍价134800元/吨-144100元/吨，均价报139450元/吨，较 前一日价格上涨1450元，长江现货1#镍报134600元/吨-145000元/吨，均价报139800元/吨，较前一日价 格上涨1800元，广东现货镍报142600元/吨-143000元/吨，均价报142800元/吨，较前一日价格上涨100。 ccmn镍市分析：宏观面，2026年开年首个交易日，镍价高开高走，沪镍主力合约高位震荡。核心驱动 源自供应端强烈收缩预期： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oversupply pressure of nickel remains significant, but due to the Indonesian government's plan to impose taxes on cobalt elements, the market's bearish sentiment has exhausted, and the short - term bottom of nickel prices may have emerged. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of SHFE nickel is expected to be between 110,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME 3M nickel contracts is expected to be between 13,000 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In December, nickel ore prices remained stable. In the Philippines, it was the rainy season, supply was low, domestic nickel - iron smelters had sufficient inventory, and procurement willingness was weak. In Indonesia, there was no clear news on RKAB approval progress, mines were cautious in shipping, and smelters' procurement demand was relatively weak, resulting in a cold market [12]. - **Nickel - iron**: In the supply side, nickel - iron plant profits were under pressure in December, and production scheduling decreased slightly. In the demand side, stainless - steel prices rose significantly due to macro - sentiment, steel mills' replenishment demand was released, and traders' inventory - building sentiment increased, so nickel - iron demand rebounded slightly. In general, with the rise of stainless - steel prices, the nickel - iron market became more active, and short - term prices may be strong [12]. - **Intermediate products**: This week, the coefficient of intermediate products remained high. Supply was high, but the market's tradable volume was insufficient. Demand for nickel sulfate weakened, and only some enterprises were preparing for raw material procurement in the first quarter of next year, resulting in a cold overall market. The current intermediate product market is more of a situation with prices but no transactions. As production increases, the coefficient price of intermediate products may decline [12]. - **Refined nickel**: In December, nickel rebounded from the bottom. On one hand, Indonesia announced that the nickel ore quota in 2026 would be tightened significantly and then proposed to tax cobalt and iron elements in nickel ore, which reignited market concerns about next year's nickel ore supply and exhausted short - selling power. On the other hand, the macro - environment was positive, and the non - ferrous metal sector was strong, enhancing the upward elasticity of nickel prices. In the spot market, overall transactions were still light, and premiums and discounts were stable [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price trends**: The report presents the price trends of nickel futures contracts [15]. - **Nickel spot premiums and discounts**: The report shows the premiums and discounts of domestic and LME nickel spot [18][19]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The report includes the prices of nickel - iron and the premium of nickel sulfate relative to nickel beans [22][23]. 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: It includes the export volume, port - departure statistics, import volume, port inventory, and prices in the Philippines and Indonesia [27][28][29][30][31][32]. - **Nickel - iron**: It shows the monthly production and production profits in Indonesia and China [33][34][35][36]. - **Intermediate products**: It presents the production in Indonesia, import volume in China, and prices and transaction coefficients [37][38][39][40][41][42]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In November 2025, the national refined nickel production was 28,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared with October. The report also shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rates [45][46][47]. - **Demand**: It includes the monthly production and social inventory of domestic stainless steel, as well as the terminal demand and real - estate demand in the manufacturing industry [48][49][50][51]. - **Import and export**: It shows the import volume and import profit - and - loss of domestic refined nickel [52][53]. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 1,435 tons to 311,421 tons. The report also shows the domestic and LME regional inventories [54][55][56]. - **Cost**: It presents the production cost by raw materials and the production profit rate by processes [57][58]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: It shows the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China [60][61][62]. - **Demand**: It includes the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China [63][64][65]. - **Cost and price**: It presents the production cost and price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, as well as the production profit rate of main raw materials [66][67][68]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The report shows the supply - demand balance of nickel from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including the production, consumption, supply - demand gap, and visible inventory of various nickel products in different regions [70][71].

隔夜LME镍大涨，沪镍继续走高，今日盘初延续偏强震荡格局，主力合约涨超3%。目前镍过剩压力依 旧较大，但印尼能源与矿产资源部大幅下调2026年工作计划和预算中的镍矿产量目标，下调幅度约为 34%，同时拟对伴生金属计税。短期受消息影响，市场投机氛围较浓， 镍价增仓上行。后续重点关注 印尼政策实际落地情况。 ...

受全球最大生产国印尼计划削减供应的提振，镍价触及九个月以来的最高水平。截至发稿，LME镍期货涨超5%，报16600.88美元/吨。据报道，印尼 能源和矿产资源部长Bahlil Lahadalia表示，为更好地匹配供需，2026年将减少镍产量。 印尼的镍产量在过去十年迅速增长，目前该国的镍产量已接近全球总产量的70%，成为全球最大的产镍国。印尼计划将于2026年进行的减产主要是对 镍价下跌作出的回应。12月早些时候的报道称，根据印尼政府为明年制定的工作计划和预算，2026年的镍矿产量目标约为2.5亿吨，较2025年3.79亿吨 的目标低了近三分之一。 镍广泛用于不锈钢和电动汽车电池。但由于替代化学成分的出现，以及欧美电动汽车政策退坡导致电动汽车需求疲软，镍是今年表现最差的工业金属 之一。尽管今年大部分时间里镍价低迷，但印尼的供应持续增加，导致伦敦金属交易所(LME)跟踪的仓库库存迅速增加。 印尼的镍产量是决定明年镍价走势的关键。印尼政府预计将通过收紧采矿配额(RKAB)的发放来控制供应。除了收紧采矿配额以控制供应之外，据此 前报道，印尼能源与矿产资源部还计划在2026年初修订镍矿基准定价公式。印尼镍矿商协会(A ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottom space of nickel price is expected to shift from pyrometallurgy to hydrometallurgy in 2026, with the front - end smelting entering a second peak of low - cost replacement of high - cost. The combined low - cost and surplus volume is over 360,000 tons, while the nickel - iron to nickel - matte production in 2025 was about 270,000 tons [3][68]. - The price difference between nickel - iron and nickel sulfate/refined nickel is expected to converge in the long - term, with the industry chain forming a parallel pattern of hydrometallurgy - nickel sulfate/refined nickel and nickel - iron - stainless steel. If the Indonesian nickel ore quota is implemented, nickel - iron will rise more than pure nickel; otherwise, pure nickel will decline [4][69]. - The path of price difference regression may be bumpy. In 2026, domestic enterprises may consider selling MHP and squeezing MHP profits [4][69]. - The upper limit of nickel price depends on the uncertainty of Indonesian policies. The long - term nickel price is still promising, especially in 2027 due to the demand from solid - state batteries and other emerging sectors [4][69]. - From a static balance perspective, a surplus of about 220,000 - 230,000 tons is expected in 2026, mainly due to the over - supply in the smelting end [5][70]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply: Shift to Hydrometallurgy in the Production Cycle - In 2025, intermediate products and nickel sulfate were in short supply, while refined nickel had significant inventory accumulation. The industry mode and resource integration led to more flexible conversion between standard and non - standard products [10][12]. - In 2026, Indonesia's hydrometallurgical MHP will be the largest source of supply. The planned production capacity from 2026 - 2027 is close to 550,000 tons, with an expected increase of 350,000 tons in production capacity by the end of 2026. The actual increase in supply is mainly from three projects, with an expected year - on - year increase of 160,000 tons to 620,000 tons in 2026 [13]. - The total capacity of the key oxygen - rich side - blowing incremental projects from 2026 - 2027 is about 80,000 tons. The output of Indonesian oxygen - rich side - blown nickel matte is expected to increase by 30,000 tons to 70,000 tons in 2026 [15]. - The trend of RKEF converting to nickel matte is decreasing. The traditional pyrometallurgy is facing challenges, with the bottom space of nickel price shifting from pyrometallurgy to hydrometallurgy [21]. - The global nickel - iron supply is expected to increase by 60,000 tons to 2.26 million tons in 2026. However, due to the squeeze of hydrometallurgy on pyrometallurgy, the supply elasticity of nickel - iron will increase [25]. Risk: Uncertainty of Indonesian Policies - Indonesia has the ability and motivation to support prices. It can resolve the surplus contradiction by cutting 9% of nickel supply. Currently, it is taking a moderate approach to support prices, with the full cost of pyrometallurgical nickel - iron rising by 5% year - on - year [30]. - The cost of MHP has increased, but the high cobalt price offsets part of it. In the long - term, Indonesia may cut the quota to control the surplus, but an immediate "one - size - fits - all" policy is still challenging [34]. Demand: Contradiction May Not Be Prominent, Focus on Ternary in the Long - Term - In 2026, the growth rate of global electric vehicle demand will be moderate, with the increase in market penetration as the core logic. The total global electric vehicle sales are expected to increase by 13% to 23.75 million units [37]. - The growth of the Chinese electric vehicle market may slow down, but the structural market has bright spots, with an expected increase of about 1.5 million units in domestic demand [39]. - The overseas market growth mainly comes from Europe and emerging regions, while the US market may have a negative impact [42]. - The growth rate of global ternary battery installation is not expected to be high in 2026. The proportion of ternary battery installation may decline by 6% to 36%. The long - term demand depends on emerging sectors such as solid - state batteries [43]. - The alloy demand growth is expected to be limited, with marginal attention on high - temperature and corrosion - resistant alloys. The demand for stainless steel is less elastic and may not have outstanding performance [50][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, nickel prices rose significantly due to concerns about raw material supply caused by Indonesia's quota issue. Some production capacities have recently cut production, reducing supply pressure [8]. - In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices partially dropped slightly, shipping freight decreased, and ore inventory was at a high level. With the arrival of the rainy season, ore supply decreased, and mines held firm on prices. Nickel iron prices rebounded, and the cost line increased. Stainless steel inventory declined and was short - term affected by nickel prices. Refined nickel inventory remained at a high level, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - The nickel market is expected to maintain a supply - surplus pattern dominated by Indonesia's low - cost production capacity in the long - term. Traditional demand such as stainless steel has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. The industry will accelerate the elimination of high - cost production capacity at low prices, and the bottom of nickel prices will be anchored to the cost line of Indonesian nickel pig iron [26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel**: The price of nickel is strong. Short - sellers should wait and try short - selling again when the price returns to the previous box range [8][9]. - **Stainless steel**: The stainless steel market will operate with a slight upward trend. Short - sellers should wait for the moment [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes | Product | This Week | Last Week | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% | 54 | 54 | 0.00% | | Red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% | 47 | 48 | - 2.08% | | Battery - grade nickel sulfate | 26350 | 26350 | 0.00% | | Electro - plating grade nickel sulfate | 29750 | 29750 | 0.00% | | Low - nickel iron (Shandong) | 3300 | 3300 | 0.00% | | High - nickel iron (Shandong) (yuan/nickel point) | 910 | 895 | 1.68% | | Shanghai electrolytic nickel | 134550 | 123850 | 8.64% | | Shanghai Russian nickel | 127400 | 117600 | 8.33% | | Jinchuan ex - factory price | 133200 | 123600 | 7.77% | | 304 stainless steel | 13600 | 13437.5 | 1.21% | [13][14] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market - Some nickel ore prices dropped by 1 US dollar/wet ton this week, and shipping freight decreased by 1.5 US dollars/wet ton. - As of December 25, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 13.7647 million wet tons, a decrease of 626,700 wet tons or 4.35% from the previous period. - In November 2025, nickel ore imports were 3.3395 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3434 million tons or 28.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 94,600 tons or 2.92%. From January to November 2025, the total nickel ore imports were 40.2704 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.10%. - Nickel ore transactions were fair this week. With the arrival of the rainy season, mine shipments decreased significantly, and there was an expectation of rising ore prices. The rebound in downstream nickel iron prices eased the pressure on ore price reduction [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market - Nickel prices rose significantly this week, and downstream buyers were highly cautious. Some producers cut production, and imported supplies were tight, causing the spot premium to rise. The import window opened this week, and traders locked in prices. - In the long - and medium - term, the global nickel market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide support. - In November 2025, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.27%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative production was 381,727 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 27.34%. - In November 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 12,670.512 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,929 tons or 30.07%, and a year - on - year increase of 3,676 tons or 40.86%. Exports were 10,926.086 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,741 tons or 20.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 87 tons or 0.80%. - LME nickel inventory increased by 1,146 tons to 255,696 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 826 tons to 44,454 tons [22][25][26][29][32][38]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market - According to MySteel data, low - nickel iron prices remained flat at 3,300 yuan/ton, and high - nickel iron prices rose by 15 yuan/nickel to 910 yuan/nickel. - In November 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production was 22,100 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.37%. - In November 2025, China's nickel iron imports were 895,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons or 1.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 13,000 tons or 1.4%. From January to November 2025, the total imports were 10.153 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.171 million tons or 27.2%. - In November, the negotiable nickel iron inventory was 218,500 physical tons, equivalent to 22,500 tons of nickel [43][44][46][49][52]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market - The price of 304 stainless steel (average price of four regions) rose by 162.5 yuan/ton this week. - In November, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4931 million tons, of which the production of 200 - series was 1.042 million tons, 400 - series was 689,400 tons, and 300 - series was 1.7617 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. - The latest data shows that stainless steel imports were 112,100 tons, and exports were 405,300 tons. - As of December 26, the inventory in Wuxi was 570,900 tons, in Foshan was 283,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1.0051 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37,000 tons. The inventory of 300 - series was 631,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,800 tons [57][58][61][64][68]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.78 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2%. In November, the production and sales were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively, and the market share of new energy vehicles in total new vehicle sales reached 53.2%. - In November 2025, the production of power + energy - storage batteries in Chinese battery factories was 193 GWh. The total production of power + energy - storage + consumer - type batteries in the Chinese market was 209 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 64.6% [73][76]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price rose significantly and moved away from the 20 - day moving average. In terms of positions, the long - side force was strong, and the position - increasing force was large, indicating a short - term strong trend. Indicators such as MACD were also in an upward trend. Short - sellers should wait and see if the previous top provides effective support. If the price falls back to the previous box range, they can consider short - selling [79]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - **Nickel ore**: Neutral to strong. Transactions were fair, and concerns about reduced raw material supply due to Indonesia's quota issue [82]. - **Nickel iron**: Neutral. Nickel iron prices rebounded, and the cost line moved up [82]. - **Refined nickel**: Neutral. Short - term production cuts reduced supply pressure, but the long - term oversupply pattern remained, and inventory was at a high level [82]. - **Stainless steel**: Neutral. Inventory declined, and costs increased [82]. - **New energy**: Neutral. Production data was good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continued [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai nickel rebounded sharply with wide - range fluctuations at a low level. New policy disturbance risks remain, such as the reduction of new policy quotas in Indonesia's 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB). The release of Indonesia's MHP capacity suppresses prices. After the high - level of imported nickel shows some improvement, nickel inventories continue to increase. Downstream stainless - steel production and inventory are at high levels. It is expected that nickel prices will experience more intense low - level fluctuations overall [7]. - In terms of strategy, short - term long - position trading is recommended for the main contract of Shanghai nickel. For options, lightly buy out - of - the - money call and put options. Later, attention should be paid to changes in the mine end, stainless - steel production, and Indonesia's nickel element exports [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Week - long Viewpoints and Strategies - **Market Situation**: Shanghai nickel had a sharp and volatile rebound at a low level last week. The RMB exchange rate is approaching the "7" mark. In November, the total social electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, with the electricity consumption of the charging and swapping service industry increasing by 60.2% year - on - year. Indonesia may change its mining policy [7]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the RKAB approval quota provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but there are still risks of new policy quota reduction in Indonesia's 2026 RKAB. China's nickel imports are large, remaining at a high level in November. In November, domestic ferronickel production was at a low level, while Indonesia's remained high. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and the output in November increased slightly month - on - month. In November 2025, the total domestic refined nickel output was 28,192 tons, a month - on - month decline from the high level [7]. - **Demand**: In November, stainless - steel production declined slightly month - on - month, and it is expected to be restricted in December. Domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high, but the absolute value has decreased. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials has increased significantly in recent months [7]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, SHFE inventory increased month - on - month, and refined nickel social inventory increased slightly compared with last week [7]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industrial chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, ferronickel, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [9]. 3.3. Spot and Futures Markets - The report presents charts of LME nickel premium/discount (spot/3 months, in US dollars per ton) and SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis (in yuan per ton) [11]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore**: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly, with an import volume of 36.5763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%. In October - November 2025, imports were 468,280 tons and 333,940 tons respectively, showing a continued month - on - month decline [19]. - **Ferronickel**: In 2024, Indonesia's ferronickel output was 1.5138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In November 2025, the output was 157,400 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase and still at a high level. In 2024, domestic ferronickel output was 296,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.9%. In November 2025, the output was 22,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease and still at a low level. In November 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 895,000 tons, showing a month - on - month decline, and the inventory was 22,500 tons, remaining stable [24][28]. - **Refined Nickel**: In 2025, with the continuous release of electrowinning nickel capacity, the supply of pure nickel continued to expand. In November 2025, the total domestic refined nickel output was 28,192 tons, a month - on - month decline from the high level. In September - October 2025, the apparent consumption was 33,051.88 tons and 22,949.39 tons respectively. In November 2025, China's nickel imports were 233,000 tons, remaining at a high level, and exports were 13,300 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [31][35]. 3.5. Intermediates - **Wet - process Intermediates**: In November 2025, Indonesia's MHP output was 40,100 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [42]. - **High - grade Nickel Matte**: Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte output growth was relatively pressured this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. In October - November 2025, the output was 29,800 tons and 31,200 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are many planned intermediate - product production capacities from 2025 - 2027 [47]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: In November 2025, the output was 30,735.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease. In October - November 2025, nickel sulfate imports were 22,055 tons and 31,817.9 tons respectively [51]. 3.6. Demand Side - **Stainless - steel Demand**: In November 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4931 million tons, showing a slight decline from the high level. The latest total social stainless - steel inventory was 992,960 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [57]. - **Cathode Material Demand**: From the perspective of power - battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. It is expected that in 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the growth of total terminal demand will still have inertia. In November 2025, the output of ternary cathode materials was 83,200 tons, continuing to rebound [62]. 3.7. Inventory Side - **Social and Bonded - area Inventory**: As of December 19, 2025, the refined nickel social inventory was 55,988 tons, showing a slight increase compared with last week [69]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of December 23, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 254,388 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. As of December 24, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 38,428 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [75].