增量需求有限 今年以来，镍价整体呈震荡偏弱运行态势。11月 21日，沪镍主力2601合约最低价下探至113980元/吨， 创下近5年历史新低。这一低点的出现，主要源于美联储降息预期下修、精炼镍库存加速累积以及供需 矛盾持续凸显。展望2026年，沪镍探底进程预计将延续。 利润层面，据SMM数据，截至2025年10月底，印尼MHP与高冰镍一体化工艺的盈利表现分化显著：生 产硫酸镍时，二者利润率分别为26.2%、6.9%；生产精炼镍时，利润率分别为9.5%、-6.3%，高冰镍工 艺已陷入亏损。 产量端数据同样印证这一趋势。 探底之路漫漫 2025年1—10月，在整个镍产业需求结构中，不锈钢、动力电池、合金、电镀的耗镍量占比分别为 78.2%、13.4%、5.6%、1.6%，合计98.6%。 不锈钢需求具备显著的地产后周期属性。当前国内房地产市场尚未出现实质性改善，对不锈钢需求的拖 累效应持续显现；而新兴产业对不锈钢的消费量级相对有限，这使得不锈钢市场仍需以存量需求为主。 在动力电池领域，受磷酸铁锂材料成本优势突出、热稳定性优异影响，三元材料的市场份额已持续缩减 至20%左右。固态电池能够同时破解安全性与续航里程两大 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Currently, the surplus pressure on nickel remains significant. However, with the stabilization of ferronickel prices and the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may shift to a volatile pattern in the short term. Future focus should be on the trends of ferronickel and ore prices. In terms of operations, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and make judgments after the ferronickel prices stabilize. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel is expected to be between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M nickel contract is expected to be between 13,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: This week, nickel ore prices remained stable. In the Philippines, the cost inversion of domestic ferronickel smelters intensified, leading to a significant weakening of ore demand. However, miners still tried to support prices in the short term, so ore prices did not decline significantly. In the future, ore prices may face downward pressure due to weakening terminal demand. In Indonesia, some areas in Sulawesi entered the rainy season, reducing the production efficiency of some mines. With weakening demand and a lower HMM benchmark price, ore prices have a downward impetus. The wet - process ore market remained relatively dull, with prices mainly stable [11]. - **Ferronickel**: This week, terminal consumption was weak, and the negative feedback effect drove ferronickel prices to decline continuously. As the downstream entered the traditional off - season, stainless - steel terminal consumption was weak, and industry inventories were high. Many stainless - steel enterprises planned to cut production at the end of the year, reducing the procurement demand for ferronickel. Some traders sold at lower prices, and the market quotation and transaction center further declined. In the future, the ferronickel production profit level is at an absolute low, and there is downstream procurement demand when the ferronickel price is around 880 yuan/nickel. It is expected that ferronickel prices will gradually stabilize [11]. - **Intermediate products**: This week, the overall transaction of intermediate products was average, but the coefficient price remained high under cost support. In terms of supply, sulfur prices remained strong, and sellers were more willing to support prices. However, the demand for nickel sulfate weakened, and only some enterprises were preparing for raw material procurement in the first quarter of next year. The overall market transaction was rather cold [11]. - **Refined nickel**: After hitting a new phased low this week, nickel prices rebounded in the short term as the macro - atmosphere improved. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract on Friday was 117,080 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from last week, and the LME nickel price on Friday was 14,820 US dollars/ton, up 1.37% from last week. In terms of the macro - aspect, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut continued to rise this week, and market risk appetite gradually recovered. In the spot market, prices fluctuated with the futures market, and the premium and discount remained generally stable [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures nickel price trend**: Nickel prices rebounded this week. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract on Friday was 117,080 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from last week, and the LME nickel price on Friday was 14,820 US dollars/ton, up 1.37% from last week [17]. - **Nickel spot premium and discount**: The spot premium and discount were stable with a slight upward trend. As of November 28, the average spot premium of Russian nickel against the nearby contract was 400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the spot premium of Jinchuan nickel was reported at 4,700 - 4,800 yuan/ton, with the average price up 550 yuan/ton from last week [21]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: Ferronickel prices continued to be weak. As of November 28, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 879 - 887 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 8 yuan/nickel point from the same period last week. Nickel sulfate prices gradually weakened. As of November 28, the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was reported at 27,660 - 27,800 yuan/ton, with the average price down 350 yuan/ton from the same period last week [24]. 3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: Nickel ore prices remained stable. On November 28, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 52.02 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week, the delivered price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week, and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines was reported at 57 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week [33]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic refined nickel monthly output was 33,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared with September [48]. - **Demand**: The report shows relevant data on stainless - steel production, inventory, and terminal demand in the manufacturing and real - estate sectors, but no specific demand summary is provided [50][52]. - **Import and export**: Not specifically summarized in the text, only relevant data charts are presented [54]. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 2,382 tons to 308,476 tons [57]. - **Cost**: The report presents relevant data on the production cost and profit rate of different refined - nickel production processes, but no specific cost summary is provided [59]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows data on the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China, but no specific supply summary is provided [63]. - **Demand**: The report shows data on the production volume of ternary power batteries and ternary precursors, but no specific demand summary is provided [66]. - **Cost and price**: The report presents data on the production cost, price, and profit rate of battery - grade nickel sulfate from different raw materials, but no specific summary is provided [68]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides data on global nickel supply outlook and quarterly supply - demand balance forecasts from 2023 to 2025. Overall, the supply exceeded demand from 2023 - 2025, with the surplus increasing year by year [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel price is technically rebounding but remains under short - term pressure. Due to high inventory and oversupply, the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation. The stainless steel market is also facing weak demand and high inventory, and is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation as well [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 114,500 yuan/ton and closed at 115,530 yuan/ton, a 0.64% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 148,534 (+10,331) lots, and the open interest was 147,554 (-13,106) lots. The rise was a technical repair rather than a trend reversal. The dovish Fed statement increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, driving up metal futures. However, weak consumption and high global nickel inventory will suppress the nickel price in the long term [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, northern mines' shipments were unstable, and the latest tender prices declined slightly but remained high. The downstream nickel - iron transaction price dropped to 880 yuan/(ex - ship, tax included), and iron plants' production enthusiasm was low. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price decreased by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/ton, and the mainstream premium was +26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 120,200 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan/ton from the previous day. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, and traders were cautious. The premiums of refined nickel brands were stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,785 (-294) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (-468) tons [2]. Strategy - Due to high inventory and unchanged oversupply, the nickel price is expected to maintain low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,280 yuan/ton and closed at 12,335 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 147,594 (-31,040) lots, and the open interest was 162,927 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a narrow - range weakening trend, with the price fluctuating between 12,265 - 12,385 yuan/ton. The short - side was dominant, and the market was bearish [3]. - **Spot**: In the off - season, stainless steel demand was weak, the market was pessimistic, prices were lowered, but transactions remained light. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 12,675 (+0) yuan/ton and 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton respectively, and the 304/2B premium was 335 - 585 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 889.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventory, and a downward - moving cost center, the stainless steel price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Report Overview - Report Title: Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [4] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold a wait - and - see stance, with an expected price range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][125] Core Views - Nickel: Under macro - level pressure, the supply - demand fundamentals are loose and inventory is rising, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs will keep stainless steel prices running weakly [6][125] Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel declined by 2.16% weekly, with trading volume dropping to 450,600 lots (- 95,900) and open interest falling to 112,200 lots (- 9,700). LME nickel fell 1.20% weekly, with trading volume rising to 41,100 lots (+ 3,600) [11] - The basis premium was 1,950 yuan/ton [13] 1.2 Supply Side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged [21] - In September, the Philippines' nickel ore exports decreased. China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase [26] - Last week, the nickel ore arrival volume decreased by 90,200 tons week - on - week, and port inventory decreased by 50,000 wet tons [28] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped by 12 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel narrowed, and the premium to scrap stainless steel widened [34] - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month increase and a 47.2% year - on - year increase. Imports are expected to decline in October [39] - In November, domestic nickel pig iron production and capacity utilization declined, while those in Indonesia increased. Nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [47][49] Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the production and capacity utilization of refined nickel declined, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [53][57] - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased and exports decreased [61] 1.3 Demand Side Stainless Steel - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [66][114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, while imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [70][117] New Energy - The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely low [75] - In November, the production of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month - on - month but increased by 20.4% year - on - year, while the production of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month - on - month and 39.8% year - on - year [79] - In November, the production of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 23.4% year - on - year [81] - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [87] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory and LME nickel inventory both increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social inventory increased by 3,981 tons [88][93] 1.5 Cost and Outlook - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP decreased. MHP - integrated production of electrowon nickel has a significant cost advantage over nickel matte - integrated production [98] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to macro - level pressure, loose fundamentals, and rising inventory [99] 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures declined by 1.51% weekly, with the basis widening to 1,080 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 490,300 lots (unchanged), and open interest increased to 167,700 lots (+ 110,600) [102] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased, weakening cost support [105] - The profitability of 200 - series stainless steel improved, the losses of 300 - series widened, and 400 - series turned from loss to profit [110] 2.3 Fundamental Analysis - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased, and imports increased. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [117] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory increased, with inventory of all series (200, 300, and 400) rising [123] 2.5 Outlook - Due to weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs, stainless steel prices are expected to continue to run weakly [125]

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to an oversupply situation, with both domestic and Indonesian refined nickel production on the rise, leading to increased supply pressure [1][2][4]. Group 1: Nickel Price Trends - As of November 12, the Shanghai nickel index closed at 118,870 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 0.55%, while London nickel prices fell below 15,000 USD/ton, marking a new low for the period [1]. - The overall nickel supply remains high, with domestic refined nickel production in October reaching 35,900 tons, an increase of 300 tons month-on-month [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Cumulative refined nickel production from January to October reached 335,200 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.37% [2]. - Global nickel inventory as of October 31 stood at 303,400 tons, an increase of approximately 95,000 tons compared to the beginning of the year, and up 120,000 tons year-on-year, reaching a five-year high [2]. Group 3: Nickel Ore Supply - Indonesia's nickel ore supply is projected to be around 300 million wet tons by 2025, with demand estimated at 260 million wet tons, indicating a shift from a tight to a loose supply situation [3]. - Domestic nickel ore imports in September totaled 6.11 million tons, a slight decrease of 3.6% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 33% [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The supply-demand imbalance is expected to drive nickel prices lower, but the downward potential may be limited due to support from nickel ore prices and seasonal factors affecting mining capacity in the Philippines [4]. - The Indonesian government has adjusted its mining approval process from a three-year to a one-year system, which may introduce uncertainties in nickel ore supply [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the nickel price will fluctuate weakly. Technically, the increase in positions and the decline in price have led to a rise in the short - selling atmosphere, testing the lower edge of the range. It is recommended to wait and see for now or take short - term and light - position short - selling, and pay attention to the MA5 pressure [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 118,710 yuan/ton, down 670 yuan; the spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai Nickel is - 180 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,025 dollars/ton, down 75 dollars. The main contract holding volume of Shanghai Nickel is 116,829 lots, an increase of 1,929 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel is - 34,023 lots, an increase of 1,175 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,308 tons, down 96 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 37,187 tons, an increase of 436 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 14,970 tons, an increase of 24 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 31,824 tons, down 468 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 120,450 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 120,350 yuan/ton, down 1,050 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,740 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 200.63 dollars/ton, down 4.13 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, down 23.22 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,481.66 million tons, an increase of 2.56 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 56.72 dollars/ton, down 4.61 dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 217,000 metal tons, down 3,000 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0853 billion tons, an increase of 0.2112 billion tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 billion tons, an increase of 0.0248 billion tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 570,800 tons, down 10,000 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Q3 monetary policy report of the People's Bank of China states that it is natural for the growth rate of financial aggregates to decline in the future, and a reasonable interest - rate ratio relationship should be maintained. ADP data shows that in the four weeks ending October 25, the number of private - sector compensation jobs in the US decreased by an average of 11,250 per week, with a total reduction of 45,000 jobs in that month (excluding government employees), the largest monthly decline in employment since March 2023. The macro - level shows that the number of private - sector jobs in the US ADP in October decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic - trade nickel ore remains stable. The supply of Philippine nickel ore is at a high level, but the grade of nickel ore has declined, and the domestic nickel ore inventory is lower than the same period last year [2] 3.7 View Summary - Newly - invested electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly. Due to low nickel prices and cost - side pressure, some smelters are making losses and reducing production, so the growth of refined nickel output is expected to be limited. On the demand side, stainless - steel mills show the characteristic of a weak peak season, but the decline in the cost of nickel - iron has improved the profit of steel mills, and the planned output is expected to increase. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory continues to grow, the market mainly purchases on demand, and the spot premium rises; the overseas LME inventory also shows an increase [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and an oversupply situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, a significant reduction in Philippine nickel ore production is expected in the fourth quarter, so the rebound of nickel prices should be monitored [3]. - In the stainless - steel market, as demand rebounds less than expected, inventory accumulates, and cost support weakens, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 6, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 119,280 yuan/ton and closed at 119,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 110,740 (-12,708) lots, and the open interest was 118,664 (+3,500) lots. The night session showed a weak oscillation, but the day session rebounded due to mine - end disturbances. Indonesia is strengthening control over illegal nickel ore mining, and the typhoon in the Philippines is affecting local nickel ore mining and transportation [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market had a calm trading atmosphere with stable prices. In the Philippines, rainfall and typhoons affected shipping efficiency. Downstream nickel - iron prices were under pressure, and iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 27 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,900 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot transactions were fair, and the spot premiums of each brand were stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,850 yuan/ton, and imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,689 (-240) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,104 (-24) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 6, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2511 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,590 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 106,468 (+16,088) lots, and the open interest was 68,420 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the nickel price trend, it showed a similar trend, with a weak oscillation at night and a slight rebound during the day [3][4]. - **Spot**: The spot market sentiment was still pessimistic, with prices continuing to decline and poor transactions. In the afternoon, driven by the futures market, the quotes rebounded, and inquiries increased, but actual transactions were limited. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market, it was 12,850 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 320 - 620 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 917.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Nickel Market**: On October 30, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened high and closed low. The spot market had decent trading volume, and the basis premium widened. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: On October 30, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The fundamentals are loose, and cost support is weakening, so the upside potential of stainless - steel prices is expected to be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Trading Volume Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased on October 30 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel futures active contract was 99,113 hands (-10,149), and the open interest was 107,897 hands (-1,789). LME nickel prices also declined, with the LME 3 - month nickel official price down by $105 [2]. - **Supply - side Situation**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened. In October, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased, and nickel - iron inventories decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in October, and export profits expanded [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: Ternary production increased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: SHFE nickel inventories increased, LME nickel inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased on October 30 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai stainless - steel futures active contract was 105,051 hands (+11,210), and the open interest was 89,093 hands (-9,130) [2]. - **Supply - side Situation**: In October, stainless - steel production increased, but the production of the 300 - series decreased [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost - side Situation**: The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: SHFE stainless - steel inventories remained flat. Last week, the social inventory of the 300 - series was 61,270 tons (-9,000) [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel market's oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate and adjust, with attention paid to the range of 120,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Technically, with an increase in positions and a decline in prices, it will maintain range - bound operation. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or conduct range - bound operations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai nickel is 120,560 yuan/ton, down 1,840 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts for Shanghai nickel is - 260 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,335 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 115,046 lots, up 6,057 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai nickel is - 38,140 lots, down 4,457 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 251,238 tons, up 384 tons. The SHFE nickel inventory is 36,075 tons, up 1,656 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 6,408 tons, down 24 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 31,385 tons, up 1,605 tons [3]. b. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,150 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate from Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 122,250 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,590 yuan/ton, up 940 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 205.18 US dollars/ton, down 11.06 US dollars [3]. c. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, down 23.22 million tons; the average monthly import price of nickel ore is 56.72 US dollars/ton. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,497.91 million tons, down 30.93 million tons. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 21,700 metal tons, down 300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, up 0.2112 million tons [3]. e. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, up 0.0248 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 0.5767 million tons, down 0.0069 million tons [3]. f. Industry News - Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, hoping that both sides would work towards each other to prepare for high - level Sino - US interactions. From January to September, the profits of above - scale equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.4% year - on - year, 6.2 percentage points higher than the average level of all above - scale industries, driving the profit growth of all above - scale industrial enterprises by 3.4 percentage points. The high - tech manufacturing industry played an obvious leading role, with the profits of above - scale high - tech manufacturing industry increasing by 8.7% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points faster than from January to August. According to IMF forecasts, by 2030, the ratio of the US government's total debt to GDP will soar by more than 20 percentage points from the current level to 143.4%, breaking the post - pandemic historical record [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Electrolytic nickel: Hold [4][91] - Stainless steel: Sell on rallies [5][117] 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic nickel, the supply - side shows rising nickel ore prices, decreased port arrivals and inventory, reduced domestic ferronickel production and increased Indonesian production, and rising domestic refined nickel production and export profits. The demand - side has increasing production of ternary materials and precursors, rising stainless - steel mill production, and stable alloy plating demand. With increasing social inventory and decreasing bonded - area inventory, the fundamentals are loose, inventory pressure is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][91]. - For stainless steel, the production of stainless - steel mills is rising while the 300 - series production is falling, and the terminal demand is weak. The cost support is weakening with falling nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices. With inventory reduction, the upward driving force is expected to be insufficient [5][117]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated at a low level with a weekly increase of 0.67%. The trading volume decreased to 442,200 lots (- 44,100), and the open interest increased to 121,400 lots (+ 60,900). LME nickel rose 1.32% weekly, and the trading volume decreased to 27,100 lots (- 7,500). The basis premium was 750 yuan/ton [10][12] 1.2 Supply - side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores rose by 1 dollar/wet ton each, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China remained flat. In September, Philippine nickel ore exports decreased, and China's imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase. Last week, the arrival volume decreased by 818,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 290,000 wet tons [16][23][25] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 9 yuan/nickel point, and that of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron fell by 200 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and the premium to scrap stainless steel remained flat. In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month and 47.2% year - on - year increase, and the imports in October are expected to decline. In October, domestic production and operation rates decreased, while those in Indonesia increased, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased [30][33][41] Electrolytic Nickel - In October, the production and operation rates of refined nickel increased. The export profit of electrolytic nickel expanded. In September, imports increased and exports decreased [47][51][55] 1.3 Demand - side Stainless Steel - In October, stainless - steel production increased while 300 - series production decreased. In September, exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, and imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year, and the imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [60][64] New Energy - The premium between nickel sulfate and pure nickel shrank, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was very small. In October, the production schedules of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and nickel sulfate increased, with month - on - month increases of 16.2%, 4.3%, and 5.1% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 2.8%, 33.7%, and 24.3% respectively. In September, new - energy vehicle production was 1.617 million units, a 16.3% month - on - month and 23.7% year - on - year increase, and sales were 1.604 million units, a 15.0% month - on - month and 24.6% year - on - year increase [70][73][81] 1.4 Inventory - Last week, SHFE and LME nickel inventories increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory decreased by 300 tons, and the six - region social inventory increased by 1,094 tons [82][87] 1.5 Electrolytic Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate remained unchanged, while the costs from high - grade nickel matte and MHP increased. MHP integrated production has a significant cost advantage over high - grade nickel matte integrated production [90] 2.2 Cost and Profit - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices fell, weakening cost support. The 200 - series turned profitable, and the losses of the 300 - series and 400 - series narrowed [97][102] 2.3 Fundamental - In October, stainless - steel production increased while 300 - series production decreased. In September, exports decreased and imports increased, and the imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [106][109] 2.4 Inventory - The domestic stainless - steel social inventory decreased. The 200 - series inventory remained flat, while the 300 - series and 400 - series inventories decreased [115]