报告行业投资评级 - No investment rating provided in the report 报告的核心观点 - Philippine nickel ore supply has rebounded, but domestic nickel ore port inventories have declined, leading to a tight raw material situation [2] - High raw material prices and a downward trend in nickel prices have caused profit losses for some non - integrated smelters, leading to production cuts [2] - Stainless steel mills' profit margins have been compressed, resulting in production cuts for the 300 - series; new energy vehicle production and sales continue to rise, but ternary battery demand has declined [2] - Recently, nickel prices have fallen, leading to increased spot premiums and decreased domestic social inventories, while overseas LME inventories have increased [2] - Technically, with declining positions and rising prices, there is a divergence between bulls and bears. Attention should be paid to the MA60 pressure level, and short - term fluctuations and adjustments are expected. It is recommended to wait and see [2] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 期货市场 - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai nickel is 120,910 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is - 110 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 1,5105 dollars/ton, up 85 dollars; the position volume of the main contract for Shanghai nickel is 90,543 lots, down 4,924 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai nickel is - 21,786 lots, up 1,182 lots; LME nickel inventories are 211,254 tons, up 2,172 tons [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventories are 25,750 tons, up 299 tons; LME nickel cancelled warrants total 15,870 tons, up 3,558 tons [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity for Shanghai nickel is 20,923 tons, down 247 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,900 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plates from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 122,000 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price for Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price for Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 990 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan [2] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 200.74 dollars/ton, down 7.95 dollars [2] 上游情况 - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, up 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 994.36 million tons, up 6.49 million tons [2] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 65.84 dollars/ton, down 7.57 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 产业情况 - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly production of ferronickel is 2.26 million metal tons, down 0.13 million metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 billion tons, up 193.2 million tons [2] 下游情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 174.4 million tons, down 4.07 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 60.8 million tons, up 0.23 million tons [2] 行业消息 - Former New York Fed President Dudley wrote that Fed Chair Powell plans to serve until May 2026 and may continue as a governor after that [2] - The EU Commission spokesperson said that the EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months, and the extension will take effect this week [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Short - term nickel and stainless - steel prices are weakened by market sentiment. The overall fundamentals change little. There is support from nickel - iron and intermediate product prices at the lower end and demand suppression at the upper end, so they still show a volatile trend [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Monthly changes:沪镍 fell 1.2%, LME nickel fell 2.1%, nickel - iron prices rose, and nickel sulfate prices fell slightly. Stainless - steel spot prices generally increased, and the spot premium rose 220 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton [5][57] - Specific price data: For example,沪镍 dropped from 121,220 yuan/ton to 119,770 yuan/ton; LME nickel decreased from 15,340 dollars/ton to 15,020 dollars/ton [6] 3.2 Supply - **Nickel - related supply** - Nickel ore: The price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore 1.2% decreased by 0.2 dollars/wet ton to 24.8 dollars/wet ton, 1.6% remained at 52.1 dollars/wet ton. Indonesian nickel ore premium dropped 1 dollar/wet ton to 24 dollars/wet ton, and Philippine nickel ore 1.5% stayed at 7 dollars/wet ton [4][5][18] - Refined nickel: In August, the production is expected to increase 2% month - on - month to 33,000 tons [4][5] - Nickel - iron: The market was inactive, and the transaction price center shifted slightly upward [4][5][21] - Intermediate products: Spot prices declined slightly, and market activity remained stable [4][5][24] - Nickel sulfate: In August, the production is expected to drop 3% month - on - month to 28,349 nickel tons [4][5][29] - **Stainless - steel supply** - In July 2025, the estimated crude - steel output of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants was 3.2302 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 61,400 tons (1.87%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. In August, the planned output is 3.3041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.64% [4][57][71] 3.3 Demand - **Stainless - steel demand** - Inventory: The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased 429 tons to 103,000 tons month - on - month. The total social inventory of 89 warehouses in the national mainstream stainless - steel market decreased 7,000 tons to 1.111 million tons week - on - week, with the 300 - series increasing 7,000 tons to 677,000 tons [4][57][64] - Consumption: According to the production schedule report of three major white goods released by Industrial Online, the total planned production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August 2025 is 26.97 million units, a 4.9% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [4][57][82] - **New - energy demand** - Ternary precursor: In August, the production is expected to increase 5% month - on - month to 76,160 tons [4][5][41] - Ternary material: In August, the production is expected to increase 3% month - on - month to 70,750 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased 53 tons to 16,499 tons [4][5][43] - Power cells: The weekly cell production decreased 0.5% to 22.57 Wh, with lithium - iron increasing 0.5% to 15.66 GWh and ternary decreasing 2.7% to 6.91 GWh [4][5][46] - New - energy vehicles: From July 1st to 20th, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 514,000 units, a 25% year - on - year increase and a 12% decrease compared to the previous month; the retail volume was 537,000 units, a 23% year - on - year increase and a 12% decrease compared to the previous month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 54.9%, and the wholesale penetration rate of new - energy manufacturers was 53.6% [4][5][51] 3.4 Inventory - Nickel inventory: During the week, LME inventory increased 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons;沪镍 inventory decreased 331 tons to 21,374 tons, social inventory decreased 795 tons to 39,486 tons, and bonded - area inventory increased 500 tons to 5,200 tons [5][12][16] - Stainless - steel inventory: As mentioned above, the warehouse - receipt and social inventory of stainless - steel changed as described in the demand section [4][57][64] 3.5 Cost - profit - Stainless - steel: Raw material prices were stable, while finished - product prices fluctuated greatly. The profit margins of stainless - steel smelting, cold - rolling 304, and hot - rolling 304 were also presented in relevant charts [57][80] 3.6 Supply - demand Balance - Nickel: There are charts showing the supply - demand balance of primary nickel and nickel sulfate [53][54][56] - Stainless - steel: There is a chart presenting the supply - demand balance of Chinese stainless - steel [91][92]

Macro Perspective - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during the July meeting, which had a limited impact on nickel prices [2] - Indonesia's government raised nickel ore production quotas from 298.5 million wet tons to 364 million tons, but actual production was only 120 million tons, significantly below the quota [2] - Nickel ore imports in June were 4.35 million tons, down 9% year-on-year, but up 11% month-on-month, leading to an increase in nickel concentrate port inventory to 9.3146 million wet tons, returning to the median level of the past five years [2] Stainless Steel Industry - Both Indonesia and China's stainless steel industries are in a consumption lull, with profits for 200 and 400 series hot-rolled and cold-rolled stainless steel remaining negative, while only the 300 series maintained positive margins [3] - In June, production of hot-rolled stainless steel decreased by 5.5% month-on-month, and cold-rolled stainless steel production fell by 2% [3] - Nickel pig iron (NPI) production profits in China have declined, leading to the lowest operating rates and production levels in nearly four years, with imports of NPI rising by 50% year-on-year in June [3] Battery and Alloy Demand - Domestic sales of new energy vehicles increased by 35% year-on-year in the first half of the year, significantly boosting nickel demand for batteries [4] - Nickel demand for alloys also rose, with refined nickel production reaching 210,000 tons in the first half of the year, a 41% increase year-on-year, marking a four-year high [4] - Nickel inventory levels are at their highest in four years, with LME nickel inventory at 208,000 tons, a 98% year-on-year increase [4] Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices have been fluctuating within a range since June, with a peak of 125,370 yuan/ton in July due to stimulus measures in key industries [5] - The outlook suggests that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate, especially if Indonesia increases its nickel concentrate production in response to raised quotas [6] - The overall supply-demand balance for refined nickel remains loose, with high inventory levels at LME and SHFE, indicating limited upward price momentum in the short term [6]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year, driven by supply constraints and macroeconomic factors, but ultimately fell due to oversupply conditions [1][2][9] Nickel Price Trends - In Q1, nickel prices rose to a high of 136,000 yuan/ton due to tight supply and favorable macro conditions, but in Q2, prices declined as oversupply became a concern [1] - Specific events influencing prices included Indonesia's RKAB quota reduction in January, trade tensions affecting demand in April, and subsequent policy changes in Indonesia and the Philippines [1][2] Policy Impact - Indonesian and Philippine nickel mining policies significantly affect nickel prices, with both countries accounting for nearly 70% of global nickel production by 2024 [2][3] - Policies can be categorized into "quantity" (e.g., RKAB quotas, export bans) and "price" (e.g., HMA price adjustments, increased resource usage fees), with quantity controls having a more immediate market impact [3] Supply Dynamics - Nickel production capacity is expected to continue growing, particularly in Indonesia, despite a slowdown in new project launches due to declining nickel prices [4][5] - The MHP production capacity is expanding, while the high-nickel battery market is facing challenges, leading to a subdued performance in the nickel sulfate market [4][5] Demand Outlook - Stainless steel, which accounts for over 60% of nickel demand, is facing pressure due to high nickel iron costs and weak downstream consumption [7] - The electric vehicle sector, a key growth area for nickel demand, is experiencing increased competition, leading to a decline in the market share of ternary batteries [8] Market Forecast - The overall nickel market is expected to remain oversupplied, with prices likely to fluctuate between 110,000 and 128,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, stainless steel prices have stabilized, and some traders have started speculative stocking. However, with high stainless - steel inventories, the impact of speculative demand is expected to be limited, and the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse. In the context of weak demand, although the ore price has fallen, downstream smelters lack the motivation to expand production. It is expected that the ore price will continue to decline, driving the price center of the industrial chain to move down further. It is recommended to sell high in the operation. The short - term price range of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is expected to be 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11] Group 3: Summaries According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: The nickel ore price has generally declined. The supply of wet - process ore is stable with a stable price, while the price of pyrometallurgical ore is under pressure. It is expected that the nickel ore price will continue to decline due to weak demand [11] - **Ferronickel**: The market sentiment has slightly improved, and the supplier's quotation has increased. The market price of scattered orders has risen to 920 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom). The ferronickel price is running steadily and strongly, but there is still an oversupply pressure [11] - **Intermediate products**: The supply of intermediate products is expected to loosen. The supply of high - grade nickel matte in July is expected to increase significantly compared with the previous month, and the output of MHP is expected to remain at a high level [11] - **Refined nickel**: The nickel price is running strongly driven by the rise of ferronickel price. The spot trading has turned cold, and the global nickel visible inventory has decreased by 1.43% to 243,000 tons, with inventory accumulation in China and inventory reduction in LME [11] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot market**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel have decreased, with a decline of 0.52% and 0.58% respectively. The LME closing price has increased slightly by 0.07%, and the SHFE closing price has decreased by 0.73%. The import loss has decreased [15] - **Futures market**: The LME nickel open interest has decreased by 3.73%, and the SHFE open interest has increased by 7.71%. The LME inventory has increased by 0.68%, and the SHFE inventory has increased by 0.92% [15] - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has increased by 3.71%, the nickel plate spot inventory has increased by 4.97%, and the nickel bean spot inventory has increased by 0.34% [15] - **Nickel spot premium**: The domestic refined nickel spot premium is relatively strong. The Russian nickel spot premium is 350 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The LME nickel Cash/3M discount is 204.70 US dollars/ton, slightly lower than last week [22] - **Secondary nickel price**: The ferronickel price is running steadily and strongly, and the market price of scattered orders has risen to 920 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom) [25] 3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The domestic port inventory has increased significantly, reaching 9.8787 million tons as of July 25, an increase of 4.2% compared with the same period last week. The nickel ore price is under pressure, and the prices of some grades of nickel ore in Indonesia and the Philippines are unchanged from last week [32][35] - **Ferronickel**: Not further elaborated in this part - **Intermediate products**: In June, the output of MHP in Indonesia was 39,000 nickel tons, basically unchanged from the previous month, and the output of high - grade nickel matte was 25,000 nickel tons, a significant increase from the previous month. As of July 25, the FOB prices of Indonesian MHP and high - grade nickel matte and their coefficients to LME nickel are unchanged from last week [42][47] 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In June 2025, the national refined nickel output reached 34,500 tons, maintaining a historically high level [52] - **Demand**: Not further elaborated in this part - **Import and export**: Not further elaborated in this part - **Inventory**: The global refined nickel inventory has decreased slightly. The global nickel visible inventory has decreased by 1.43% to 243,000 tons, with inventory accumulation in China and inventory reduction in LME. The LME nickel inventory has decreased by 3,654 tons to 204,000 tons, a decline of 1.76% [61] - **Cost**: Not further elaborated in this part 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: Not further elaborated in this part - **Demand**: Not further elaborated in this part - **Cost and price**: Not further elaborated in this part 6. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2023 to 2025, the total supply of nickel is generally greater than the total demand, and the supply - demand gap shows an increasing trend year by year. In 2025, the supply - demand gap is expected to reach 166,400 tons [77]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, with nickel ore prices slightly decreasing, intermediate product supply slightly increasing, recent resurgence of tariff issues, and general market demand, it is expected that nickel prices will be under pressure in the near - term, seeking support downward. The medium - to - long - term strategy remains to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For the stainless steel market, due to steel mill production cuts, nickel iron production cuts, a slight decline in nickel ore prices, and the market being in the off - season with general spot transactions, it is expected that stainless steel will oscillate weakly within a range in the near - term, and the medium - to - long - term strategy also remains to sell on rallies for hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Nickel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 8, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,860 yuan/ton and closed at 120,370 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.67% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 88,116 lots, and the open interest was 67,223 lots. The main contract had a small gap - up opening at night, rebounded but was blocked, then oscillated and declined. During the day session, it continued to decline, found support, and then oscillated sideways, closing with a negative line. The trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: - **Supply**: In the Philippines, rainfall in the Surigao mining area and seasonal typhoons affected shipping efficiency. In Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply was alleviated due to production cuts at local smelters. In June 2025, Indonesia's ferronickel metal production was 24,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.28%. The estimated production in July was 26,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.31%. In June, Indonesia's nickel hydrometallurgical intermediate product nickel metal production was 38,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14% and a year - on - year increase of 42.98%. The estimated production in July was 40,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.98% and a year - on - year increase of 48.41% [2]. - **Demand**: In the spot market, Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation was about 900 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day, and the prices of mainstream brands also decreased accordingly. With the decline in nickel prices on the disk, refined nickel was in sufficient supply, demand did not show significant growth, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed. Spot transactions were average [2]. - **Inventory**: The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 20,833 (1.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 202,620 (150) tons [2]. - **Strategy**: - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range - bound operations. - **Others**: No suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options operations [3]. Stainless Steel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 8, 2025, the main contract 2508 of stainless steel opened at 12,660 yuan/ton and closed at 12,700 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 103,281 lots, and the open interest was 90,238 lots. The main contract had a small gap - up opening at night, rebounded but was blocked, then oscillated sideways. During the day session, it continued to decline, found support, and then rebounded slightly, but declined in the afternoon, closing with a hanging - man positive line. The trading volume increased slightly, and the open interest increased compared to the previous trading day [4]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: - **Supply**: In the Philippines, rainfall in the Surigao mining area and seasonal typhoons affected shipping efficiency. In Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply was alleviated due to production cuts at local smelters. Indonesian nickel iron production lines were converted to produce ferronickel, and some small smelters cut production. Some domestic smelters also stopped production. On the 8th, a major steel mill in South China inquired at a price of 900 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hold), and several thousand tons of nickel iron were traded. The overall negotiation range of nickel iron prices shifted downward [4]. - **Demand**: In the spot market, stainless steel prices on the disk first rose and then fell. Market inquiry activity was low, and it was difficult to make transactions even with price concessions. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi market was 12,725 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was also 12,725 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 105 - 255 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Others**: No suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options operations [5].

Group 1 - The current spot price of electrolytic nickel in Shanghai is 122,250.00 CNY/ton, with a premium of 1,420.00 CNY/ton over the futures main price of 120,830.00 CNY/ton as of June 30 [1] - The national nickel price overview on June 30 shows various market prices for 1 nickel (Ni9990) ranging from 122,300 CNY/ton to 124,300 CNY/ton across different locations in Shanghai and Guangdong [2] - On June 30, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's main nickel futures contract closed at 120,830.00 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.17%, and trading volume reached 86,158 contracts [2] Group 2 - As of June 30, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported nickel registered warrants at 192,996 tons and cancelled warrants at 11,010 tons, with total nickel inventory at 204,006 tons, a decrease of 288 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a nickel futures warehouse receipt of 21,221 tons, a decrease of 36 tons from the previous trading day, with a cumulative reduction of 257 tons over the past week, representing a 1.2% decrease [3] - The analysis indicates that the nickel market is experiencing a medium to long-term oversupply, with traditional demand in a seasonal decline, although current inventory levels do not show significant increases [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - **L利多因素**: Inventory is continuously decreasing, with both Shanghai Nickel and LME Nickel inventories reducing, alleviating short - term supply pressure; Nickel ore in Indonesia is in short supply, and prices are firm, providing cost support for nickel prices [3]. - **利空因素**: The long - term supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the bearish fundamental pattern persists; The demand for downstream stainless steel is weak, and the improvement in terminal orders is insufficient, dragging down nickel prices [3]. - **交易咨询观点**: The market is intertwined with long and short factors, lacking new drivers, and overall maintaining a volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **镍期货价格**: The latest price of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 119,920 yuan/ton, down 1,470 yuan (-1.21%); the price of LME Nickel 3M is 15,105 dollars/ton, down 385 dollars (-2.28%) [4]. - **不锈钢期货 price**: The latest price of stainless steel main contract is 12,550 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan (1%) [4]. - **镍现货 price**: The latest price of Jinchuan Nickel is 122,650 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan (-0.22%); the price of imported nickel is 120,650 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan (-0.29%) [4]. - **库存情况**: Domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,383 tons, an increase of 8 tons; LME Nickel inventory is 197,538 tons, a decrease of 96 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 998.8 thousand tons, an increase of 15.5 thousand tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons, an increase of 1,907.5 tons [4][6]. 3.2 Charts - **盘面信息**: There are charts showing the trends of domestic and foreign nickel futures, stainless steel futures, nickel spot average prices, etc., as well as seasonal charts of supply, production, and inventory in various aspects of the nickel - stainless steel industry chain, including China's refined nickel monthly production, primary nickel total supply, domestic and LME nickel inventories, nickel ore prices and inventories, nickel iron production, downstream battery - grade nickel sulfate prices and production, and stainless steel production and inventory [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that US inflation data is weakening, labor market is stable, and there are certain results in Sino - US trade negotiations. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the US - Iran conflict may push up the US dollar index and put pressure on nickel prices. [2] - Fundamentally, the risk of resource disturbances has decreased as the Philippines cancels the nickel ore export ban. Indonesia's resource supply is tight, and the high ore price provides cost support. The demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak, and the supply side has also weakened, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. [2] - In the later stage, macro factors may cause periodic disturbances, and the weak fundamental expectation will continue. Nickel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - SHFE nickel price dropped from 122,710 yuan/ton on June 9, 2025, to 119,920 yuan/ton on June 13, 2025, a decrease of 2,790 yuan/ton. LME nickel price decreased from 15,421 US dollars/ton to 15,128 US dollars/ton, a decline of 293 US dollars/ton. [4] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,568 tons to 197,538 tons, while SHFE nickel inventory increased by 573 tons to 21,765 tons. [4] - The average price of high - nickel pig iron dropped from 960 yuan/nickel point to 947 yuan/nickel point. [4] - Stainless steel inventory increased from 893,000 tons to 917,000 tons, an increase of 23,500 tons. [4] 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Nickel Ore - The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines rose from 50 US dollars/wet ton to 51.55 US dollars/wet ton. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia remained at 41.3 US dollars/wet ton. The resource disturbance risk has been eliminated, but the supply in Indonesia is still tight, and the cost side is supported. [5] 3.2.2 Ferronickel - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 951.5 yuan/nickel point to 934.5 yuan/nickel point. In May, China's nickel pig iron production was expected to be about 26,260 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. In April, domestic ferronickel imports totaled about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. In May, Indonesia's ferronickel production was expected to be 142,600 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase/decrease of 16.9%/ - 0.47%. The cost pressure on ferronickel plants is prominent. [6] 3.2.3 Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained at 27,815 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 30,000 yuan/ton. In June, the expected production of nickel sulfate metal was about 25,425 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 16.61%/ - 2.27%. The production of ternary materials increased slightly, but the demand is expected to have no increment. [7] 3.2.4 Macro and Fundamental Aspects - In the macro - aspect, US economic data is generally good, inflation is in a downward channel, and there are certain results in Sino - US trade negotiations. [7][8] - In the fundamental aspect, on the supply side, the smelting start - up rate has decreased, but the export window is still open. In terms of terminal consumption, the new - energy vehicle market had good sales at the beginning of June, but it is in the off - season, and consumption is difficult to boost significantly. [8][9] 3.3 Industry News - The Philippines' Senate and House of Representatives decided to cancel the nickel ore export ban clause in the final law, and the PNIA welcomed this decision. [12] - ITSS nickel - iron plant's No. 14 furnace was successfully restarted after maintenance. [12] - Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved new progress, and the two sides reached a consensus on the measures framework to implement the important consensus of the leaders' phone call and consolidate the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks. [12] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides 10 charts, including the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless steel prices, and stainless steel inventory. [14][16]

Core Viewpoint - Recent nickel price declines are influenced by various factors, including supply pressures and changes in mining policies in Indonesia and the Philippines [2][3][4]. Supply Factors - Nickel prices are under pressure due to significant oversupply, with Indonesian and Philippine mining policies contributing to this situation. The removal of export bans in the Philippines and high supply growth from Chinese nickel companies have exacerbated the oversupply [3][4]. - Nickel inventory levels have increased significantly, with nickel pig iron inventory rising to 31,500 tons and refined nickel inventory increasing nearly eightfold to 39,000 tons [3]. Demand Factors - Domestic demand for refined nickel is expected to grow faster than supply in the first half of the year, with a 60.82% year-on-year increase in apparent consumption [6]. - However, demand from stainless steel and ternary precursor sectors remains weak, limiting the growth potential for refined nickel consumption [6][7]. Global Inventory Trends - Global refined nickel inventory accumulation is slowing down due to supply-side disruptions and the impact of low nickel prices on high-cost producers, leading to production cuts [5][6]. - The LME inventory has shown a decline since April, particularly in Russian-origin stocks, indicating a potential tightening in supply [5]. Price Outlook - Short-term nickel price declines may be limited due to high nickel ore prices and ongoing inventory depletion [7]. - However, there remains potential for further price declines as raw material prices may still adjust downward, and demand from stainless steel production is not expected to improve significantly [7]. Market Focus - Future market attention should be directed towards changes in Indonesian mining policies, the impact of price declines on high-cost supply, and the ability of pure nickel inventories to deplete effectively [7].