Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The A - share major indices closed generally higher. The market is in the macro - data verification stage during the performance and policy vacuum period. Although the economic data in August was still under pressure, the previous financial data showed that residents were shifting from excess savings to increased consumption. With the expected reflection of this in subsequent economic data and the Fed's potential interest - rate cut providing room for domestic policy easing, stock indices still have long - term upward potential. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Quotes - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) closed at 4553.2, up 36.2; IH (2509) at 2956.2, up 5.8; IC (2509) at 7252.4, up 90.4; IM (2509) at 7547.0, up 93.0. The prices of the corresponding next - main contracts also showed increases or decreases [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - **Seasonal - to - Current Spreads**: The spreads between current - season and current - month contracts, and next - season and current - month contracts also had different trends [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The spot prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased, and the basis of the corresponding futures contracts also changed [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume was 24,029.24 billion yuan, up 358.55 billion yuan; margin trading balance was 23,926.52 billion yuan, up 226.53 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume was 2876.22 billion yuan, up 3.16 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks decreased, Shibor increased, and the closing prices and implied volatilities of call and put options of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index showed different trends [2]. 3.4 Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall strength - weakness analysis of the A - share market showed that the technical aspect weakened, while the capital aspect strengthened [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The nine - department policy on expanding service consumption proposed 19 measures in five aspects, including promoting service - consumption seasons and expanding opening - up in certain fields [2]. - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, with real retail sales growing by 2.1% year - on - year after inflation adjustment [2]. 3.6 Key Events - The Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will announce their interest - rate decisions on September 18 and 19 [3].

Group 1: Report Core View - The lead price is fluctuating without an obvious driving force [1] Group 2: Industry Data Summary Futures Price - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 17,055 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day; the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 2,001.5 dollars/ton, down 0.87% [1] Trading Volume - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 54,978 lots, a decrease of 3,688 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 5,516 lots, a decrease of 964 lots [1] Open Interest - The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 45,095 lots, a decrease of 1,961 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 165,625 lots, a decrease of 277 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -48 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.5 dollars/ton [1] Import Profit and Loss - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -363.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.07 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three was -472.56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 94.45 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 59,417 tons, unchanged; the LME lead inventory was 227,850 tons, an increase of 2,225 tons [1] Other Prices - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [1] Other Data - The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan/ton; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 29,350 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons [1] Group 3: News Summary - The US Treasury Secretary said that the Fed has been lagging in response, and the market is digesting the expectation of a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut from now to the end of the year [2] - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, and real retail sales have increased for 11 consecutive months [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations, indicating strong consumer demand [1] - Year-on-year, retail sales rose by 5%, while the month-on-month growth remained consistent with July's figure of 0.6% [1] - Excluding automotive and parts sales, retail sales increased by 0.7% month-on-month in August [1] Group 2 - Specific categories showed varied performance: automotive and parts sales grew by 0.5%, clothing sales increased by 1%, and online sales rose by 2% [1] - However, furniture and home goods sales experienced a decline of 0.3% month-on-month [1] - Analysts suggest that the growth in retail sales may be influenced by rising prices, as indicated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which rose by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in August [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. Treasury yields are mostly declining as investors digest strong retail sales data and anticipate a nearly certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1][2] - The U.S. retail sales in August showed a robust growth of 0.6%, marking the third consecutive month of strong performance, surpassing the Dow Jones forecast of 0.3% [2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (BPs), with market expectations indicating a cumulative rate cut of 75 BPs by the end of the year [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue two bonds totaling $98 billion, including $85 billion in 6-week short-term debt and $13 billion in 20-year bonds [3] - In the European market, bond yields are generally rising, with the 10-year German bond yield increasing by 1 BP to 2.705% [3] - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields are mostly declining, with the 20-year bond yield rising by 3.3 BPs to 2.678% [3]

Core Insights - US consumer spending showed unexpectedly strong momentum in August, with retail sales data increasing for the third consecutive month. Real retail sales adjusted for inflation grew by 2.1% year-over-year, marking the 11th consecutive month of positive growth [1][5]. Retail Sales Performance - August retail sales increased by 0.6% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0.5% [1]. - Retail sales excluding automobiles rose by 0.7%, exceeding the forecast of 0.4% and matching the prior month's growth [1]. - Retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline also increased by 0.7%, again above the expected 0.4% [1]. Sector Contributions - The retail growth in August was broad-based, with 9 out of 13 major categories reporting increases. Online retailers, clothing stores, and sporting goods stores were the primary drivers, likely reflecting back-to-school shopping [3]. - The restaurant sector rebounded with a 0.7% increase after a decline in the previous month [3]. - Despite expectations that auto sales would drag down overall data, this category continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace [3]. Key Indicators - A critical indicator known as the "control group" sales rose by 0.7% in August, significantly above the estimated 0.4%. This metric excludes food services, auto dealers, building material stores, and gas stations, serving as a core reference for calculating GDP [7]. Economic Context - Consumer spending capacity appears supported by several factors, including wage growth that outpaces inflation for many workers. Additionally, rising stock markets have contributed to a wealth effect, particularly benefiting higher-income groups [8]. - This strong performance contrasts with market concerns about economic slowdown and may influence Federal Reserve decision-making regarding interest rates [8].

Group 1 - Retail sales showed a stronger than expected increase of 0.6% in August, following a 0.5% increase in July, surpassing the forecast of 0.2% [1][2] - Retail sales excluding automobiles rose by 0.7%, and when excluding both autos and gas, the increase remained at 0.7% [2] - The control group, which impacts GDP calculations, increased by 0.7% after a 0.3% gain in July, indicating robust consumer spending [2][3] Group 2 - The back-to-school shopping season appears to have been strong, with consumers seemingly unaffected by tariffs during August [3] - Import prices increased by 0.3%, which is a decrease from the previous month's increase of 0.4%, contrary to expectations of a decline [3][4] - The data suggests that exporters are not absorbing tariff costs but are passing them on to importers, wholesalers, and retailers, impacting consumer prices [4]

Core Insights - The U.S. retail sales increased for the third consecutive month in August, with a broad range of growth, indicating robust consumer spending throughout the summer [1][5] - Retail sales rose by 0.6% in August, surpassing all expectations from Bloomberg economists, while sales excluding automobiles increased by 0.7% [1][7] - Nine out of thirteen retail categories experienced growth, particularly online retailers, clothing stores, and sporting goods stores, driven by back-to-school shopping demand [5] Economic Context - Despite pressures such as tariffs raising costs, low consumer confidence, and signs of a weakening labor market, consumer spending remains strong [5] - Wage growth has slowed, but most workers still see wage increases above inflation levels, with high-income groups benefiting from stock market gains [5] - Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, making it a critical focus for Federal Reserve officials in their interest rate policy decisions [5] Market Reaction - Following the report, U.S. stock futures continued to rise, and U.S. Treasury yields also increased [6] Retail Sales Metrics - The "core retail sales" metric, which excludes food services, auto dealers, building material stores, and gas stations, grew by 0.7% in August, indicating a solid start for the U.S. economy in Q3 [7] - The retail sales data reflects goods purchasing, which constitutes about one-third of overall consumer spending, and the growth may also include inflation-driven price increases [7] Price Trends - Consumer prices for various categories, including clothing and automobiles, rose in August, with a report on actual consumption of goods and services expected later this month [8] - Sales in food services, the only service category included in the retail report, rebounded by 0.7% in August after a decline in July [8]

Group 1 - The August industrial production data showed an unexpected increase of 0.1%, reversing the previous month's decline of 0.1% [1] - Utilization rates remained stable at 77.4%, which is the second weakest level of the year, with the weakest recorded in January [2] - There have been downward revisions in import prices, indicating potential challenges in the manufacturing sector [2]

Core Insights - U.S. consumer spending showed unexpectedly strong momentum in August, with retail sales data increasing for the third consecutive month [1][2] - Real retail sales adjusted for inflation increased by 2.1% year-over-year, marking the 11th consecutive month of positive growth [1][4] Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales in August rose by 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 0.2%, and the previous month's increase of 0.5% [3] - Retail sales excluding automobiles increased by 0.7%, surpassing the expected 0.4% [3] - Retail sales excluding both automobiles and gasoline also rose by 0.7%, against an expectation of 0.4% [3] Sector Contributions - The growth in August was broad-based, with 9 out of 13 major categories reporting increases [1] - Online retailers, clothing stores, and sporting goods stores led the growth, likely reflecting back-to-school shopping [1] - Restaurant spending rebounded by 0.7% after a decline in the previous month [1] Economic Implications - The strong retail performance contrasts with market concerns about an economic slowdown and may influence Federal Reserve decision-making [7] - The "control group" sales, which exclude food services, auto dealers, building materials, and gas stations, rose by 0.7%, serving as a key indicator for consumer demand [7]

Core Insights - US retail sales increased by 0.6% in August, surpassing economists' expectations of a 0.2% rise, indicating strong consumer spending despite broader economic weaknesses [1] Retail Sales Performance - The Census Bureau's report highlights a significant growth in retail sales, reflecting consumer resilience [1]