Market Overview - The bond market is expected to continue fluctuating, while A-shares remain optimistic, emphasizing the support from risk appetite and liquidity [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is also anticipated to rise in the short term, with oil prices expected to remain weak and a positive outlook for gold prices [1] Economic Indicators - In the U.S., the July employment data fell short of expectations, leading to increased recession trading and rising expectations for a rate cut in September [1] - In China, the manufacturing PMI for July was below expectations, with weak new and export orders, while the construction PMI slowed due to adverse weather conditions [1][2] Market Strategy - Following the Politburo meeting, the sentiment around "anti-involution" trading has cooled, leading to a decline in risk appetite in the capital markets [1] - The bond market showed signs of stabilization with a recovery in long-term yields, while short-term fluctuations are expected to continue due to ongoing policy expectations [1] A-share Market - Since July, the A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3600 points for the first time this year [2] - Despite a weakening macro environment, the market is expected to maintain a strong position, with a focus on performance during the mid-year reporting period and market rotation characteristics [2] Hong Kong Stock Market - At the end of July, sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market began to decline, with limited value for investment [2] - However, the recent decline in U.S. employment data may temporarily benefit the funding conditions for non-U.S. markets [2] Commodity Outlook - Oil demand is expected to remain weak, with ongoing supply releases putting downward pressure on prices [3] - Gold is likely to perform well in the short term due to recession and rate cut expectations, alongside uncertainties from tariffs and doubts about the dollar's credibility [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.66% to close at 3583.31 points, with an intraday high of 3583.31 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.46% to close at 11041.56 points, reaching a high of 11041.56 points [1] - The ChiNext Index gained 0.5%, closing at 2334.32 points, with a peak of 2334.43 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return for stock ETFs was 0.43%, with the highest return from the China Securities 500 ETF at 2.6% [2] - The top-performing industry ETF was the China Securities Satellite Industry ETF, yielding 3.88% [2] - The China Securities Gold Industry Stock ETF had the highest return among thematic ETFs at 5.04% [2] ETF Gain and Loss Rankings - The top three ETFs by gain were: - Guotai China Securities Gold Industry Stock ETF (5.04%) - Huaxia China Securities Gold Industry Stock ETF (4.49%) - ICBC Credit Suisse China Securities Gold Industry Stock ETF (4.34%) [6] - The top three ETFs by loss were: - Guolian An China Securities A500 Enhanced Strategy ETF (-1.14%) - E Fund China Securities A100 ETF (-1.01%) - Shenwan Hongyuan Shanghai G60 Strategic Emerging Industry Component ETF (-0.93%) [6] ETF Fund Flow - The top three ETFs by fund inflow were: - Guotai China Securities Company ETF (inflow of 542 million) - Southern China Securities 1000 ETF (inflow of 422 million) - E Fund ChiNext ETF (inflow of 363 million) [9] - The top three ETFs by fund outflow were: - Huaxia China Securities Animation Game ETF (outflow of 437 million) - Harvest Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip ETF (outflow of 431 million) - Guolian An China Securities All Index Semiconductor Products and Equipment ETF (outflow of 348 million) [9] ETF Margin Trading Overview - The top three ETFs by margin buying were: - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Component ETF (582 million) - E Fund ChiNext ETF (303 million) - Guotai China Securities Company ETF (267 million) [12] - The top three ETFs by margin selling were: - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (18.05 million) - Southern China Securities 500 ETF (17.06 million) - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF (14.67 million) [12] Institutional Insights - Huaxia Fund noted that gold stocks tend to move in tandem with gold prices but exhibit higher elasticity, being referred to as "gold price amplifiers" [14] - The SSH Gold Stock Index has risen by 32.4% year-to-date, outperforming the London gold price increase of 26.27% [14] - Galaxy Futures indicated that short-term risk aversion is driving gold prices up, supported by factors such as high U.S. debt and increased gold purchases by central banks [15]

Group 1 - The article discusses the unpredictability of historical and market trends, emphasizing that understanding the current position is crucial for making informed decisions [10][11][15] - It highlights the importance of public sentiment in shaping macroeconomic trends, suggesting that the emotional responses of the populace can significantly influence political and economic outcomes [12][13] - The text reflects on past geopolitical events, particularly during the Cold War, to illustrate how misjudgments can lead to unexpected outcomes, drawing parallels to current market conditions [4][5][6] Group 2 - The author expresses skepticism about the return to a rational and reconciliatory era, indicating that the current climate is more complex and fraught with challenges [14] - There is a comparison made between historical valuations in the stock market and current economic indicators, suggesting that while future movements are uncertain, understanding relative value is essential [11][15] - The article concludes with a reflection on the nature of modernity and historical interpretation, questioning the assumptions made about past events and their implications for the future [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that ongoing central bank gold purchases amid global geopolitical instability will support the gold market in the medium to long term [1] - Geopolitical uncertainty and central bank demand for gold are expected to continue to bolster the gold market [1] - The gold ETF (518800) tracks the spot gold index (AU0004), reflecting the trading price changes of high-purity gold bars in the Shanghai Gold Exchange [1] Group 2 - The index captures real-time trading data of 99.99% pure gold, showcasing the commodity and financial attributes of gold [1] - Price fluctuations of the index are purely based on global supply and demand dynamics, unaffected by industry or style factors [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Gold ETF Link A (000218) and Guotai Gold ETF Link C (004253) [1]

Group 1 - The gold market is maintaining a critical support level at $3,300 per ounce, reflecting uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy direction amid a weakening economic outlook [1][3] - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, slightly downgrading its economic assessment compared to previous statements [3] - There is an emerging division within the Federal Reserve, with two members voting in favor of a rate cut, indicating a widening gap in opinions on future policy direction [3] Group 2 - Market analysts generally believe that the Federal Reserve's policy path may be more hawkish than current market expectations, with a potential rate cut of 25 basis points possibly occurring in December [5] - Current market expectations suggest that investors anticipate two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, with the earliest cut potentially in September, although this expectation lacks sufficient support from policy levels [6]

来源：智昇财论 黄金市场遭遇了"黑色星期三"，现货黄金价格单日下跌超过1.5%，盘中最低触及3268.02美元/盎司，创下6月30日以来新低。美联储维持利率不 变、鲍威尔鹰派讲话打压降息预期，以及美国公布的超预期经济数据，共同构成了金价下挫的"完美风暴"。与此同时，美元指数强势上涨约1%， 达到5月29日以来最高点99.99，进一步加剧了黄金的压力。周四（7月31日）亚市早盘，现货黄金小幅反弹，目前交投于3281.76美元/盎司附近， 投资者还将关注国际贸易局势和美国6月份PCE等数据，周五还将公布非农就业报告。 美联储"鹰爪"撕裂黄金多头 美联储在7月30日的会议中以9:2的投票结果，决定将联邦基金利率维持在4.25%-4.50%的区间不变，这是连续第五次维持利率稳定。然而，会议结 果中两位理事的反对票成为市场焦点。特朗普任命的金融监管副主席鲍曼和理事沃勒明确表示支持降息25个基点，这不仅是30多年来反对票最多 的一次，也反映出美联储内部对政策路径的分歧。美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上进一步浇灭了市场对9月降息的期待。他明确表示，美 联储尚未就9月会议做出任何决定，并强调将根据未来经济数据谨慎行事。鲍 ...

Group 1 - China's gold production in the first half of the year was 179.083 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.31%, while gold consumption was 505.205 tons, down 3.54% [1] - Gold production sources included 139.413 tons from gold mines and 39.670 tons from non-ferrous by-products, with imported raw gold reaching 76.678 tons, an increase of 2.29% [1] - Gold jewelry consumption fell significantly by 26% to 199.826 tons, while demand for gold bars and coins rose by 23.69% to 264.242 tons, and industrial gold usage increased by 2.59% to 41.137 tons [1] Group 2 - The average gold price in China rose significantly, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's AU99.99 gold closing at 764.43 yuan per gram at the end of June, a 24.5% increase since the beginning of the year [2] - The weighted average price for gold in the first half of the year was 725.28 yuan per gram, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41.07% [2] - Gold ETF holdings in China grew by 84.771 tons in the first half of the year, bringing the total to 199.505 tons by the end of June [2]

格隆汇7月30日｜联储证券研报指出，赤峰黄金主要在全球范围内从事黄金的采选和销售业务，是我国 最大的民营黄金生产商。境内管理并运营四座贵金属矿山，是公司黄金供应体系基石。五龙金矿和吉隆 撰山子金矿是公司国内金矿产出的核心，矿区黄金年产量稳定，勘探增储成果显著，重点工程建设持续 推进。境外管理并运营两座贵金属矿山，是公司国际化路线的战略尝试。长期来看，《大而美法案》进 一步加剧美国原本沉重的债务负担，对于黄金市场有望接力关税，为金价的长线趋势上行带来潜在机 遇。参考可比公司，结合公司未来发展前景，对其进行首次覆盖，同时给予公司"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent easing of global trade tensions has significantly reduced the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a decline in gold prices [1][3] - Gold prices fell for two consecutive days, with a notable drop of approximately 0.55%, closing at $3368.35 per ounce, and approaching the psychological level of $3350 [1][2] - Optimistic market sentiment regarding trade agreements between the US and Japan, as well as potential agreements with the EU, has contributed to a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields, further pressuring gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - The upcoming US durable goods orders data is expected to provide critical insights into the future trajectory of gold prices, with strong data likely to reinforce economic recovery expectations and exert downward pressure on gold [4] - Geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchasing trends, and fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate are anticipated to have a long-term impact on gold prices [4] - Key dates to watch include the Federal Reserve's meeting on July 30, which may influence inflation outlooks, and the finalization of US-EU trade agreement details before the August 1 tariff deadline [4] Group 3 - Current market conditions suggest a bullish trend for gold, with potential upward movement towards the $3400 mark, despite recent price corrections [5] - The recent dip to $3350 was viewed as a mid-term adjustment, with expectations for a rebound and new upward opportunities following this correction [5] - Investors are advised to monitor resistance levels around $3395/$3400, with a possibility of breaking through to $3410 if market momentum remains strong [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing increased interest, raising questions about whether the upward trend will lead to a larger breakout and the extent of potential pullback risks [1] Group 1 - Recent interest in the gold market has intensified, prompting analysis on the sustainability of its upward movement [1] - There are concerns regarding the potential for a pullback in gold prices, which could impact the overall market dynamics [1]