（USMCA),因此虽然明面上加拿大和墨西哥都面对着至少30%的高税率，且墨西哥还处于暂停状态，但 由于USMCA中覆盖的大量货品都处于豁免状态，因此加墨并非处于绝对不利地位，欧盟同美国之间的 协议也不会有太大变动，亟需谈成协议的包括印度等大型经济体，目前"更要关注的是针对行业的232关 税。" 特朗普表示，他将在未来24小时内"大幅提高"对印度的关税。 距离所谓"对等关税"生效仅剩1天时间，美国总统特朗普再次发动关税新攻势。 当地时间5日，特朗普表示，他将在未来24小时内"大幅提高"对印度的关税，对半导体和制药产品进口 的关税则将在"未来一周左右"宣布。 他还表示，如果欧盟不履行义务，将对欧盟征收35%的关税。 目前，仍有贸易伙伴在尝试与特朗普政府达成协议。此前关税税率被定为39%的瑞士就是其中之一。据 报道，瑞士联邦主席凯勒-祖特尔紧急前往美国华盛顿，试图在最后期限前与美国政府达成协议。 道岳法律咨询反倾销财务专家严光普对第一财经记者表示，目前美墨加之间存在《美墨加协定》 据央视报道，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫5日在接受电话采访时表示，美国试图迫使各国终止与俄罗 斯的贸易，这一行为是"不合法的"。 央视转 ...

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) faces a 15% tariff on goods entering the United States, which is all-inclusive and includes the most-favored-nation rate, differing from some countries with agreements with the U.S. [1] - The 15% tariff applies to all goods except for steel and aluminum, with current tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors being zero [1] - If the tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are raised due to the U.S. Section 232 investigation, they will not exceed 15% [1] Group 2 - The 15% tariff cap also applies to automobiles and auto parts, which have no quotas or restrictions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has imposed a 50% tariff on all semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1, 2023, citing national security concerns [1][2][4]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The tariff applies to semi-finished copper materials such as copper pipes, wires, rods, and sheets, as well as copper-intensive derivatives like fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components [1][5]. - Copper raw materials (e.g., copper ore, concentrates, blister copper, cathodes, and anodes) and copper scrap are exempt from this tariff [1][7]. - The tariff will not be cumulative with existing tariffs, such as the 25% tariff on automobiles, meaning if a copper product is subject to both, only the higher tariff will apply [5][10]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement, copper prices in New York dropped approximately 18% to $4.60 per pound, contrasting with a previous spike to nearly $6 per pound earlier in the month [1][7]. - Analysts noted that the focus on semi-finished products was a significant market surprise, leading to a widening price gap between U.S. and London copper prices [7][9]. - The U.S. relies on imports for about half of its refined copper, with only two domestic smelters, indicating a potential supply challenge [7][9]. Group 3: Domestic Industry Implications - The U.S. government aims to bolster domestic refining capacity by requiring that a portion of high-quality copper scrap remains in the domestic market, starting with 25% by 2027 and increasing to 40% by 2029 [9][10]. - The new regulations may lead to higher prices for various products, from construction materials to electronics, due to increased costs associated with the tariffs [11].

Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, discussed the semiconductor content in the trade agreement with the European Union, indicating that results regarding the Section 232 investigation will be reached within the next two weeks [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US has initiated 232 investigations on aluminum and copper, and imposed tariffs on these two metals, which have had significant impacts on their prices, trade volumes, and industrial chains [3][26]. - For aluminum, tariffs have led to an increase in the premium of US local aluminum prices over LME aluminum prices, and a change in the import pattern, with a decrease in the import of aluminum products and a potential return of the aluminum processing industry [3][18][21]. - For copper, the implementation of 232 tariffs is expected to cause the Comex - LME copper price spread to widen, and there may be a situation of supply mismatch between the US and non - US regions. The return of the copper smelting industry faces many difficulties, while the copper products manufacturing industry may experience a return [27][34][40]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 US 232 Tariff Impact on Aluminum Analysis 3.1.1 US 232 Aluminum Tariff and Premium Review - In 2017, the US launched 232 investigations on imported steel and aluminum products. In 2018, it imposed a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum products, which increased the premium of US local aluminum prices over LME aluminum prices from 10% to 20% [3]. - In 2020, the scope of aluminum import tariffs was expanded. In 2025, the aluminum tariff was raised from 10% to 25%, and then to 50%, causing the premium of US aluminum prices over LME aluminum prices to rise from 20% to 60% [6][8]. 3.1.2 US Aluminum Production and Imports and Exports - In 2024, US electrolytic aluminum production was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from 2023. The main sources of imported aluminum ingots were Canada, South Africa, Argentina, and the UAE, with imports from Canada accounting for 78.8% [11]. - After the exemption for all importing countries was cancelled in March 2025, there was a short - term rush to import, but the annual import volume of aluminum ingots may remain stable [11][12]. 3.1.3 Increase in US Primary Aluminum Imports and Decrease in Aluminum Product Imports - After the Trump tariff policies in 2018 and 2020, the import volume of aluminum and aluminum products showed a short - term decline and then recovered. From 2023 to 2024, the total import volume of aluminum ingots remained stable, but the total import volume of all aluminum products decreased significantly, while exports remained relatively stable [18]. - After 2017, the import volume of aluminum products decreased significantly, while the import volume of un - wrought aluminum and alloys increased. The import volume of aluminum containers decreased, and the export volume increased, indicating a potential return of the US aluminum processing and manufacturing industries [21]. 3.2 US 232 Tariff Impact on Copper Analysis 3.2.1 US 232 Copper Tariff Review - In February 2025, Trump signed an executive order to initiate a 232 investigation on copper. On July 9, it was announced that a 50% tariff on copper would be imposed starting from August 1, 2025, due to the US's increasing dependence on foreign copper and insufficient smelting and refining capabilities [26][27]. 3.2.2 Widening of Comex - LME Spread - Before the copper tariff rate was determined, the Comex - LME spread gradually expanded from 0 to 10%. After the 25% aluminum tariff took effect in March 2025, the market's expectation of the copper tariff increased, and the spread reached a premium level of 16.8% [27]. - After July 8, 2025, when the 50% copper tariff was announced, the Comex copper price rose rapidly, and the Comex - LME spread exceeded $3000/ton. However, the premium of Comex over LME has been lower than the tariff level, and if there is no exemption, the spread is expected to rebound to over 40% [29][30]. 3.2.3 Transfer of Refined Copper and Supply Mismatch - The rush to import copper started in April 2025. In April and May, the US imported 200,000 tons and 210,000 tons of refined copper respectively, far exceeding the historical average. This led to a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions and a decline in LME inventory [34]. - Due to the supply shortage in non - US regions from April to June, the market was in a back structure, and the inventory of the entire industrial chain was cleared. Even if supply increases after the implementation of the 232 tariff, the inventory increase may be lower than expected [35]. 3.2.4 Setback in Copper Smelting Return and Potential Breakthrough in Processing - The return of the US aluminum smelting industry has faced difficulties due to high electricity costs and old equipment. In contrast, the aluminum processing industry has shown signs of return [38]. - The return of the copper smelting industry also faces problems such as high restart costs of old equipment, high environmental protection costs, complex approvals, and low copper processing fees. The copper products manufacturing industry may experience a return, and Canada may be the most affected country [39][40]. 3.3 Summary - If there is no exemption for the 232 copper tariff, the Comex - LME spread will rebound to over 40%. If major importing countries are exempted, Comex copper may plummet, and the spread may fall to 0 - 10%. If non - major importing countries are exempted, the spread may remain at 30 - 40% [42]. - Limiting the export of copper concentrates and scrap copper while exempting refined copper from major importing countries may lead to a decline in the Comex - LME spread and a new round of copper price increases due to a shortage of global raw material supply [42]. - The copper smelting return has a long cycle and many difficulties, while the copper products manufacturing industry has a shorter construction cycle and is more likely to return, with an expected production cycle of about 2 years [44].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent initiation of two Section 232 investigations by the U.S. government concerning "drone systems and their components" and "polysilicon and its derivatives," highlighting the potential implications for national security and domestic industry protection [1][2]. Group 1: Investigations Overview - The investigations began on July 1 and are currently in the public comment phase, with stakeholders able to submit opinions until August 4 [2][7]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce is focusing on the domestic production capabilities of drone systems and polysilicon, assessing whether they can meet current and future demands [7][8]. - The investigations aim to evaluate the risks associated with foreign supply chains and the concentration of imports from a limited number of suppliers [7][8]. Group 2: Implications for Domestic Industry - The investigations indicate a shift in U.S. policy from upstream basic materials to downstream high-tech applications, which may signal a broader trend of protectionism [3][4]. - The products under investigation lack comparative advantages for the U.S., suggesting that any tariffs imposed could harm domestic supply chains [4][8]. - The article notes that previous Section 232 investigations, such as those on steel and aluminum, followed a similar logic, where tariffs were used to protect domestic markets and stimulate local production [9][10]. Group 3: Broader Context of Section 232 Investigations - A total of 11 products are currently under Section 232 investigations, including steel, aluminum, automotive products, semiconductors, and more [12]. - The U.S. has already implemented significant tariffs, such as a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum and a 25% tariff on automotive products valued at $153 billion [13]. - The investigations are framed within a national security context, where economic security is equated with national security, reflecting concerns over industrial decline and its socio-political ramifications [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The recent 232 investigations by the U.S. extend from upstream basic materials to downstream high-tech applications and derivatives, indicating a need for vigilance in the industry [1] Group 1: Investigations Overview - The U.S. has initiated two new 232 investigations concerning "drone systems and their components" and "polysilicon and its derivatives," which began on July 1 and are currently in the public comment phase [2][3] - The investigations aim to assess the impact of these products on national security, focusing on domestic production capabilities and foreign supply chain roles [3] Group 2: Industry Implications - The products under investigation lack comparative advantages in the U.S. market, suggesting that imposing tariffs could harm domestic supply chains [1][3] - The investigations are seen as a pretext for implementing protective tariffs to promote domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign imports [3][5] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Previous 232 investigations, such as those on steel and aluminum, followed a similar logic, where the U.S. established strategic importance for certain products and quantified the national security threats posed by imports [5][6] - The U.S. is likely to continue favoring tariff measures as a means of addressing perceived national security threats in various industries [4][5]

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, 2025, following a national security assessment [1][2] - This tariff is expected to significantly impact global copper trade flows and may lead to increased costs for U.S. industries reliant on copper, such as automotive and electrical sectors [6][11] - The COMEX copper futures price surged by 10% to a record high of $5.89 per pound after the announcement, while LME copper prices fell over 2% [2][10] Group 2 - The COMEX-LME copper futures price spread has reached a historical high of $2,677 per ton, indicating a significant divergence in market pricing [2][4] - U.S. copper imports have surged, with 685,000 tons imported in the first half of the year, nearly matching the total expected for 2024 [10] - The anticipated tariff could lead to a 5% to 8% reduction in U.S. copper demand, as higher costs may deter consumption [15] Group 3 - The tariff is part of a broader strategy to reshape U.S. copper industry dynamics and reduce reliance on imports from 45% to 30% by 2035 [11] - The U.S. is leveraging the tariff to gain political capital ahead of the Republican National Convention, showcasing a decisive stance on trade [9] - The potential for increased copper prices and volatility in the market is heightened, with expectations of a significant impact on global supply chains [11][15] Group 4 - China's copper imports are heavily reliant on the U.S., with over 80% of copper concentrate imports coming from abroad, raising concerns about supply chain disruptions [13] - The copper market is experiencing a seasonal slowdown in China, which could exacerbate inventory pressures if U.S. tariffs redirect copper flows to Asia [13] - The long-term outlook for copper remains positive, driven by increasing demand in renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors [16][17]

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper and a potential 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals starting August 1, 2023, as part of ongoing trade negotiations[2] - The 232 investigation allows the U.S. to impose tariffs under the guise of national security, with a high certainty of implementation compared to other tariff measures[3] - Current 232 tariffs include 25% on steel and aluminum, which were raised to 50% in June 2023, and 25% on automobiles and parts[3] Group 2: Upcoming Tariff Developments - The copper tariff will take effect on August 1, while the pharmaceutical tariff will be delayed by one to one and a half years[4] - The semiconductor 232 investigation is expected to conclude by the end of July 2023, with tariffs likely to be announced shortly thereafter[4] - Investigations into critical minerals, wood, and aircraft are ongoing, with results expected in October 2023, December 2023, and February 2026, respectively[4] Group 3: Implications of Tariff Policies - The 232 tariffs are designed to increase government revenue, with rates ranging from 25% to 200% on key products, potentially alleviating fiscal pressures[19] - The U.S. tariff system will consist of a global baseline tariff of 10%, reciprocal tariffs of 30%-50%, and 50% tariffs on critical industries[19] - The tariffs aim to encourage the return of key industries to the U.S. and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains[19]

Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - On July 7, Trump extended the suspension of reciprocal tariffs originally set to expire on July 9, notifying 21 countries of tariffs ranging from 20% to 40% effective August 1[3] - The tariffs primarily target Asian and African countries, with Japan and South Korea facing a 25% tariff, while Laos and Myanmar face a 40% tariff[3] - Compared to the April 2 tariff list, the new tariffs show minimal changes, with Cambodia and Sri Lanka receiving lower tariffs by 13% and 14% respectively[4] Group 2: Trade Negotiation Objectives - The main goal of U.S. trade negotiations is to reduce tariffs imposed by other countries on U.S. goods, particularly in agriculture, energy, and automotive sectors[5] - The U.S. has made progress with countries like the UK, which agreed to increase beef imports from 1,000 tons to 13,000 tons, while the U.S. will reduce auto tariffs to 10-25%[5] - Ongoing negotiations with Japan have stalled due to strict agricultural protection policies, particularly regarding rice imports[5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the issuance of tariff letters, the U.S. stock market reacted mildly, with a less than 1% drop on July 7 and a subsequent recovery on July 9[9] - The market's sensitivity to tariff negotiations has decreased since the easing of U.S. tariff policies from April to June, indicating a shift towards fundamental trading[9] - Future developments in tariff policies and their impact on the U.S. economy and corporate sectors will be closely monitored, especially with upcoming CPI data releases[9]