Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached a new record, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4083.67 points, marking a 1.50% increase and breaking a ten-year high since July 2015, supported by a strong performance across various sectors and increased trading volume [1][2]. Market Performance - The A-share market exhibited a comprehensive upward trend, with significant contributions from the financial, materials, and technology sectors, driven by ongoing policy benefits and accelerated industrial trends [2]. - The financial sector, particularly securities and insurance, played a crucial role in supporting the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points, with companies like New China Life Insurance and China Pacific Insurance reaching new highs [2]. - The cyclical sector saw notable gains due to improved supply-demand dynamics, with the metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, experiencing significant price increases [2]. Emerging Trends - The technology and emerging industries continued to show structural growth, particularly in the brain-computer interface sector, which has become a hot topic, with companies like Beiyikang and Weisi Medical seeing substantial stock price increases [3]. - The brain-computer interface market in China is projected to exceed 120 billion yuan by 2040, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 26%, indicating its potential as a key growth area in the global market [3]. Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The recent market rally is characterized by a significant increase in both trading volume and price, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 7% since December 17, 2025, and total market turnover increasing from 1.8 trillion yuan to 2.8 trillion yuan [4]. - Various funding sources, including foreign capital and margin trading, have contributed to this volume increase, with margin trading balances reaching a historical high of 25,606.48 billion yuan [4]. Institutional Outlook - Institutions are generally optimistic about the A-share market's future performance, attributing the current rally to a confluence of favorable policies, capital influx, and strong fundamentals [6]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing "spring rally" has room for further development, with a focus on sectors benefiting from AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, such as industrial resources and equipment exports [7].

12月28日，由创业黑马主办的"第17届创业家年会"在北京举办，年会主题为"智业革命 —— 跨越断层，成为新物种 "。峰瑞资本创始合伙人李丰以《AI投 资的逻辑与展望》为主题做了演讲。 李丰在演讲中表示，从2022年11月份到今天，我们走过了三年AI投资热潮。除了技术创新、大模型非常热之外，本轮AI投资热潮也是历史上钱最多的一 次。2026年谁能创造新的投资叙事和想象空间，谁就能给这些钱更多的理由让钱过来。2026年，当下的AI技术周期已经到了第三阶段，最终要看谁能用 上技术，而不是谁会技术。谁能用技术赚到钱，而不是谁能讲一个不同的技术路线。 以下内容为创业家&i黑马编辑过的演讲节选： 01 本轮AI热潮，是历史上钱最多的一次 下面用不同的视角，看看当下的AI投资。现在AI非常热，中美竞争非常激烈。从2022年11月份ChatGPT出现到今天，我们走过了三年AI投资热潮。 这次特别热，我们不妨换个角度理解"特别热"，除了技术创新、大模型外，还有什么？还有一件事，或许不容易被考虑到，这次是历史上钱最多的一次。 这有一点点宏观的问题，2020年，全球排名前五的主要央行，扩表了12万亿美金。用老百姓的话说，就是这些 ...

展望2026年，机构普遍认为，全球对于资源安全的诉求将成为新主线，AI投资等带来的新需求也将成 为新一轮商品周期的驱动力量。中金公司在大宗商品2026年展望报告中，总结了有望贯穿全年市场的三 条投资主线： 1月5日，能源类期货走势分化。沥青期货增仓上行，主力合约BU2602收盘报3133.0元/吨，涨幅3.95%， 所有合约日内增仓38946手，增仓幅度近10%；原油期货则明显走弱，主力合约SC2602收盘报421.7元/ 桶，跌幅3.39%。 元旦假期，海外地缘冲突升级，美国于1月3日对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，成为引发能源期货价格 波动的重要原因。多家机构表示，委内瑞拉原油是沥青型炼厂的重要原料，此次供应中断可能引发沥青 原料短缺。 广发期货研报表示，OPEC数据显示，委内瑞拉石油储量达3032亿桶，占全球的17%，是全球石油储量 最高的国家。其中，马瑞原油（Merey）是委内瑞拉核心出口原油品种，该品种属于典型高硫超重质原 油，沥青收率达60%（中东地区常规原油的沥青收率多在30%），是沥青型炼厂的重要原料，其短期供 应中断将直接引发沥青原料短缺，推高沥青价格。 有色金属期货昨日也整体走强。工业金属领 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market in December 2025 shows a significant characteristic of "sector concentration and stock differentiation," with high elasticity opportunities concentrated in policy-sensitive sectors and clearly defined industrial trends [1][7]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The strongest structural directions are from non-ferrous metals, military industry, and price increases, driven by supply-demand gaps and policy-driven market rallies [1][7]. - The National Space Administration's release of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Commercial Aerospace" and the establishment of the Human Robot Standardization Committee by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have directly boosted the aerospace, defense, and robotics sectors [1][7]. - Looking ahead to January 2026, the market may refocus on performance and liquidity improvements, with expectations for a stable start to the domestic economy despite current weak demand [1][7]. Group 2: Key Upcoming Events - The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on January 23 is crucial, as the previous meeting raised the benchmark rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, indicating a clear policy direction [2][8]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on January 28 is anticipated to maintain the current rate, with expectations for a new chairperson to emerge, potentially influencing global capital markets [3][8]. - By January 31, A-share listed companies must release performance forecasts for 2025, which may impact market pricing based on industry performance [3][8]. Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - In January, the importance of performance realization increases, with a focus on core technology and manufacturing sectors, particularly in overseas computing power, storage, consumer electronics, and wind energy storage [4][8]. - There is potential for rotation into low-position innovative drugs and gaming sectors, which may see fundamental improvements in Q1 [4][8]. - The global manufacturing sector is expected to resonate in 2026, benefiting from fiscal and monetary easing, with a focus on manufacturing in the export chain and related sectors such as real estate and automotive [9].

时光如梭，已入新年。 过去一年，中国私募行业内部，许多变化完成了从显性波动到隐性定型的过渡。 这些迹象并不集中体现在短期业绩表现上，而是发生在结构、位置与角色的重新分配之中。 有的机构进入稳态区间，另有机构被迫加速调整，更有机构在失稳中逐步退场，这些变化并非单纯的周 期轮动。 资事堂团队通过走访证券类私募管理人、主要销售与服务渠道以及第三方研究人士，结合长期跟踪与一 线观察，尝试勾勒出未来一年行业可能呈现的轮廓。 这些判断并不追求即时显性化，而是指向正在形成的新秩序，也是对这一领域未来走向的冷静记录。 资事堂将其整理为2026年中国私募行业的十大预测。 过去两年时间里，私募资管舞台里出现了两个新的身影，一个是大型险资携政策红利而设立的私募投资 机构，一个是外资私募机构凭借业绩快速做强，两者在2026年可能继续高速成长，规模和影响力都持续 扩展。 险资私募方面，随着鸿鹄基金（由中国人寿与新华保险合资成立）在成立仅一年内即突破千亿规模后， 这条通道已经完全跑通。而外资机构方面，桥水中国规模的不断增大，也凸显了后者的竞争力。资事堂 预计，相关机构会不断成长，并实质性影响当下私募市场的供需结构。 03 基金业绩持续复 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-05 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-05 所长 早读 委内瑞拉总统被拘至美国 观点分享： 据新华社和央视新闻报道，当地时间 1 月 3 日凌晨，美国对委内瑞拉境内发动空袭，美 国总统特朗普随后证实，美方已成功实施大规模打击，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人已被抓 获并带离该国，随后（北京时间 4 日零时），在海湖庄园举行新闻发布会，公布对委内瑞拉 行动细节。美国总统特朗普 3 日称，美国将"管理"委内瑞拉直至实施"安全"过渡。如需 要美国将发动第二波更大规模的袭击，并已做好了发动第二波攻击的准备。现在可能没必要 针对委内瑞拉发动第二波袭击。他还表示，美国大型石油公司将前往委内瑞拉。特朗普再次 上台后，以打击"毒品恐怖主义"为由试图推翻马杜罗政府，旨在昭示南美是其势力范围甚 至后花园。之后美国可能扶植亲美政权，掌控或重新布局委内瑞拉能源和关键矿产等资源。 悍然掳走一国总统，强权越来越草莽，世界越来越动荡。 | 所 长 | 首 | 推 | | --- | --- | --- | | 关注指数 | | 板块 | | 原油 ★★★★ ...

2026年01月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：避险情绪回升 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位盘整 | 3 | | 铜：市场谨慎，价格震荡 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：假期间震荡平稳 | 10 | | 铝：大幅上涨 | 12 | | 氧化铝：趁势反弹 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：宽幅震荡等待进一步的方向 | 14 | | 钯：宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：高位震荡，关注正极实际减产情况 | 18 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂减产 | 20 | | 多晶硅：关注市场信息发酵 | 20 | | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 23 | | 硅铁：钢招定价落地，警惕盘面情绪 | 25 | | 锰硅：节后询价情绪 ...

2026年开年之际，投资者对于新一年市场行情的关注度显著提升，纷纷将目光聚焦于潜在的投资机会与市场动态。在此背 景下，券商密集发布1月份的金股推荐名单，去重后已覆盖212只个股。同时，对于开年首月A股市场走势，券商分析师普遍锚 定"春季躁动"行情，认为政策发力、资金流入等多重积极因素将为市场提供支撑，后续行情值得期待。 市场走势判断方面，"春季躁动"成为券商开年策略的关键词，分析师整体对1月份A股行情持乐观预期。 "政策有望持续发力，叠加各类资金有望积极流入，市场或震荡上行。"光大证券策略首席分析师张宇生表示，一方面，从 历史来看，A股市场几乎每年都存在"春季躁动"行情；另一方面，政策有望持续发力，经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一步 夯实资本市场繁荣发展的基础。此外，政策红利释放，有望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类资金积极流入。 对于春季行情的持续性，多家券商给出了更为明确的乐观判断。财通证券研究所总量研究团队策略研究组负责人徐陈翼表 示，随着2025年年底观望调整期结束，叠加2026年险资等新增资金流入、海外降息周期明确等多重积极因素共振，行情大概率 将启动"春季躁动"，整体趋势向上。 本报记者 周尚伃 春季 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Global risk assets have maintained a steady upward trend in a low volatility environment, while commodity prices have risen with increased volatility [1][7] - The Hong Kong stock market has shown particularly strong performance, leading among major global indices, driven by the spillover of US dollar liquidity and industrial catalysts [1][7] - High volatility in asset prices has been observed in the commodity market, indicating a fragile low inventory environment [1][7] Group 2: Long-term Perspective - Industrial metal values relative to US financial assets and broad money supply are at a 20-year low, indicating that physical assets are undervalued [8] - Future demand shocks from industrial changes and supply-side trade policy shifts, combined with low inventory and monetary easing, may amplify asset price volatility [8] - AI investment and the global manufacturing cycle recovery are key drivers for commodity markets in the medium term [8] Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - The latest manufacturing PMI for December exceeded expectations, indicating positive changes in the economic fundamentals [9] - Production has shown an unseasonal increase, with improvements in production, procurement, and business expectations, alongside a rise in inventory indices [9] - New domestic demand expansion policies are being implemented, including a "trade-in" policy for consumer goods and a significant investment plan of approximately 295 billion yuan to stabilize investment [9] Group 4: Seasonal Market Trends - Historical data shows a clear seasonal effect in market performance at year-end, with December typically favoring large-cap value stocks [11] - The current market rebound began in late November, coinciding with a downward trend in the US dollar index, aligning with the recovery of global risk assets [11] - The "spring rally" may already be underway, with high trading volumes in popular sectors reflecting increased risk appetite [11] Group 5: Changing Market Dynamics - The internal driving logic of the market is changing, with domestic economic data and early policy implementations acting as new catalysts [12] - The reliance on marginal improvements in overseas liquidity may not be sustainable, leading to a focus on assets with clearer fundamental signals and lower volatility [12] - Recommended investment areas include industrial resource products aligned with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic consumption recovery [12][5]

Group 1 - The report highlights that global risk assets have maintained a steady upward trend in a low volatility environment, while commodity prices have risen alongside increased volatility. The Hong Kong stock market has shown particularly strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.76% and 4% respectively on the first trading day of 2026, driven by a rebound from previous stagnation and industry catalysts [2][12] - The report notes that the current value of industrial metals relative to US financial assets and broad money supply is at a 20-year low, indicating that physical assets are undervalued. The report anticipates that low inventory levels combined with monetary easing will amplify asset price fluctuations in the future [2][16] - The report suggests that the investment strategy should focus on maintaining a long position in the medium to long term, with opportunities arising after the volatility of popular commodities decreases [2][16] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI for December exceeded market expectations, rising to 50.1%, indicating a positive shift in the economic fundamentals. Key highlights include a seasonal rebound in production, procurement, and business expectations, along with a rise in inventory indices [3][31] - The report discusses the implementation of new policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, including a "trade-in" policy for consumer goods and an investment plan totaling approximately 295 billion yuan to stabilize investment. These measures are expected to smooth out fluctuations in domestic demand in 2026 [3][31] - Export orders have shown signs of recovery, with significant increases in container throughput at ports and improved export growth rates in South Korea and Vietnam, indicating that exports remain a crucial component of the economic recovery [3][35] Group 3 - The report indicates that the "spring rally" may have already begun, with historical data suggesting a correlation between December and January market performances. The current market sentiment is optimistic, with a focus on the recovery of global manufacturing activities and their impact on Chinese assets [4][41] - The report emphasizes that the internal driving logic of the market is changing, with domestic economic data exceeding expectations and early policy implementations acting as new catalysts. It recommends focusing on assets with clearer fundamental signals and lower volatility for better investment outcomes [5][54] - The report identifies several sectors for investment, including industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic consumption recovery and capital market expansion [5][54]