Core Insights - The recent global market decline is attributed to a combination of factors leading to a systemic sell-off, including the Fed's unexpected hawkish stance, internal divisions within the AI sector, a crash in the cryptocurrency market, and concentrated selling pressure from quantitative funds [1][5][8] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact - The Fed's subtle shift towards a hawkish stance has surprised analysts, especially given the mixed employment data showing a rise in unemployment to 4.44% despite steady job growth [5] - The market's expectations for a rate cut in December have diminished significantly, with the probability now considered "basically zero" [5] Group 2: AI Sector Dynamics - The focus of AI investment has shifted from Nvidia to Google's Gemini-3 model, which is seen as a game-changer in the AI landscape, causing delays in product cycles and increasing capital expenditure [1][6] - The market is witnessing a "winner-takes-all" dynamic, with significant differentiation between companies based on their AI capabilities [7] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market Influence - The recent decline in the cryptocurrency market has led to a shift in retail investor behavior from "diamond hands" to active selling, impacting non-profitable tech stocks and AI-related equities [8][9] - The cryptocurrency market is now viewed as a barometer for retail risk appetite, with significant sell-offs triggering broader market declines [8][10] Group 4: Systematic Selling Pressure - Trend-following funds and systematic trading strategies have held over $500 billion in long positions since August, which, once key levels were breached, triggered a wave of selling [9][10] - The market's previously stable low-volatility structure collapsed under the pressure of systematic selling, leading to rapid declines without specific news events [10][11] Group 5: Capital Constraints in AI Expansion - The rising cost of capital is becoming a critical factor for AI investments, with concerns about the corporate debt market and the implications for AI data center financing [12] - The potential slowdown in AI expansion due to increased capital costs is a risk that the market has not fully priced in [12] Group 6: Market Stabilization Conditions - For the market to stabilize, three conditions must be met: clearing of CTA positions, reduction of excessive retail bullishness, and at least two triggers from cryptocurrency stabilization, a clear dovish shift from the Fed, or supportive policies for AI capital expenditure [14]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed slight recovery on November 20, with the non-ferrous sector opening high and fluctuating, as evidenced by the significant trading volume of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) which rose by 0.52% and reached a trading volume of over 90 million yuan [1] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF index components mostly surged, with Zhongkuang Resources rising over 5%, while other stocks like Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt also saw gains exceeding 1% [3] Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - On November 19, lithium carbonate futures prices broke through 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a clear recovery in spot lithium carbonate prices. Ganfeng Lithium's chairman stated that if demand growth exceeds 30% to 40% next year, prices could potentially exceed 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton due to supply constraints [2] Group 3: Supply Chain and Pricing Trends - The supply chain for non-ferrous metals is facing disruptions, with several large mines experiencing operational issues, which highlights the vulnerability of global non-ferrous resource supply [6] - The copper market is expected to see average prices reach 4.55 USD per pound by 2026 due to supply concerns stemming from accidents at major mines [5] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other industries this year, with a year-to-date increase of 79% for the CITIC non-ferrous metals index, significantly leading other sectors [5] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high "gold-copper content" of 46%, making it a leading choice among similar investment products [12] Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - The geopolitical landscape and resource security concerns are expected to drive demand for strategic commodities, with a notable increase in green demand for copper and aluminum anticipated by 2030 [8] - The ongoing industrialization in emerging economies and the reshaping of trade patterns are likely to provide new growth opportunities for commodity demand, particularly in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [9]

2026 年大宗商品分析与展望 20251119 摘要 预计 2026 年内需品种乐观程度将提高，电解铝和钢铁配置价值上升， 受益于中美贸易战缓解及"十五五"规划政策支持，提升大宗商品风险 偏好和经济乐观预期。 中美贸易战缓解后，黄金避险需求或减退，但金价仍可能上行，黄金相 关股票吸引力增加，因高位持续时间越长，对企业盈利和估值修正越有 利，2026 年黄金股票投资吸引力或超黄金本身。 资源民族主义持续，镍、锡、钴等供应链脆弱的战略性金属仍被看好， 尽管 2025 年表现不佳，但 2026 年价格空间依然巨大。 美国 AI 投资支撑铜价，但铝因供给控制宽松表现不如铜。高利率环境不 利于传统行业，结构性需求支撑的铜前景乐观，供给侧控制严格的铝也 值得关注。 美国铜库存占全球 40%-50%，导致其他地区供应紧张，COMEX 铜价 高于 LME，跨市套利成为可能。若美国远月价格显著下降，可能改变此 局面，但目前尚未看到。 Q&A 对于 2026 年大宗商品市场的整体看法是什么？ 2026 年大宗商品市场的前景总体乐观，尤其是内需品种。2025 年无论外需还 是内需表现都较为一般，除了铜和黄金价格表现较好外，其他商 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the debate surrounding the economic lifespan of GPUs, which is crucial for understanding the profitability of major tech companies and the validity of current AI valuations. Bernstein's report suggests a depreciation period of 6 years for GPUs, arguing that this is economically reasonable, while critics like Michael Burry claim the actual lifespan is only 2-3 years, warning of potential accounting manipulation to inflate profits [1][11]. Group 1: Economic Viability of GPU Depreciation - Bernstein analysts argue that a 6-year depreciation period for GPUs is justified, as the cash costs of operating older GPUs are significantly lower than their rental prices [2][4]. - The report highlights that even 5-year-old NVIDIA A100 chips can still yield "comfortable profits," indicating that the depreciation policies of major cloud service providers are fair and not merely for financial embellishment [2][4]. - The analysis shows that the contribution profit margin for A100 chips can reach up to 70%, with operational costs being substantially lower than rental income, providing strong economic incentives for extending GPU usage [4][5]. Group 2: Market Demand and Old GPUs - The current market environment supports the value of older GPUs, as there is overwhelming demand for computing power, with AI labs willing to pay for any available capacity, even for outdated models [6][7]. - Industry analysts note that the A100's computing capacity remains nearly fully booked, suggesting that as long as demand stays strong, older hardware will continue to hold value [8]. Group 3: Depreciation Policies of Tech Giants - Google has a depreciation period of six years for its servers and network equipment, while Microsoft ranges from two to six years, and Meta plans to extend some assets to 5.5 years starting January 2025 [9][10]. - Notably, Amazon has reduced the expected lifespan of some servers and network equipment from six years to five years, reflecting differing views within the industry on hardware iteration speed [10]. Group 4: Criticism and Concerns - Michael Burry warns that tech giants are artificially inflating profits by extending the effective lifespan of assets, predicting that this accounting practice could lead to a profit inflation of $176 billion from 2026 to 2028 [11][12]. - Burry specifically points out that companies like Oracle and Meta could see their profits overstated by 26.9% and 20.8%, respectively, due to these practices [12]. - Previous warnings from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley indicate that the market may be underestimating the true scale of AI investments and the potential surge in future depreciation costs, which could reveal a lower actual profitability for tech giants than expected [14][15].

全球市场正陷入一场危险的集体焦虑，而唯一能打破这种僵局的恐怕只有英伟达。这家市值4.5万亿美元的芯片巨头将于美东时间周三 （北京时间周四凌晨）美股盘后公布三季度财报，这份财报将决定全球市场在今年最后几周的走向。 眼下，市场的紧张情绪正在蔓延：从比特币到科技股，从黄金到国债，从私募市场到企业债券，几乎所有资产类别都遭遇抛售压力。在 这样的背景下，投资者将目光聚焦在英伟达身上，这既是希望也是无奈。这家公司的业绩将直接反映科技巨头们数千亿美元AI投资的真 实回报。 目前，华尔街分析师普遍看好英伟达即将公布的财报，预计净利润和营收将双双增长超过50%。 分析人士指出，如果投资者满意英伟达的三季度业绩和四季度指引，多头将推动市场迎来乐观收官；如果不满意，市场可能面临更深的 调整。正如华尔街人士所言，"这是一份英伟达走向如何，市场就走向如何的报告。" 值得注意的是，在市场高度集中风险下，英伟达作为标普500指数最大权重股和AI交易的中心，其业绩表现的重要性前所未有。但是有 市场人士指出，集中度风险在市场上行时令人兴奋，但在下行时可能变成噩梦。 英伟达：当前市场唯一的救赎者？ 一种更为阴郁的情绪正在市场蔓延，而只有英伟达能 ...

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3940 | -0.81 | 2.61 | -1.57 | | 深证综指 | 2486 | -1.04 | 3.71 | -1.26 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | -0.53 | 1.15 | 17.53 | | 中盘指数 | -1.16 | 1.45 | 26.1 | | 小盘指数 | -0.94 | 4.27 | 23.91 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 广告营销 | 3.99 | 15.01 | 16.32 | | 数字媒体 | 3.41 | 5.75 | 10.21 | | 互联网电商 | 2.28 | -0.02 | 7.06 | | 渔业 | 2.02 | 20.85 | 26.74 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that the OBBBA tax reform, effective from 2026, will significantly boost economic growth, alongside the temporary inflation effects from Trump's tariffs dissipating, leading to a "Goldilocks" economic environment in the U.S. by 2026 [1][3] Economic Growth Projections - The macro analysis team at Morgan Stanley forecasts U.S. real GDP growth of 1.6% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, suggesting a gradual return to a "Goldilocks" scenario where growth is moderate and inflation is stable [1][2][3] Consumer Spending and Inflation - Consumer spending is expected to slow down in 2026 but not collapse, with inflation gradually receding and interest rates declining, which will support spending among lower-income groups [5][8] - The anticipated inflation effects from tariffs are expected to fade in the second half of 2026, allowing for increased consumer spending as the Federal Reserve implements preventive rate cuts [8][11] Investment Trends - AI-related investments are projected to contribute positively to GDP growth, while non-AI investments are expected to recover slowly from a previous drag on growth [11][12] - Significant AI investments by major tech companies like Microsoft and Google are expected to contribute approximately 0.4 percentage points to U.S. GDP growth annually from 2026 to 2027 [11][12] Stock Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley defines 2026 as the "Year of Risk Reboot," with a focus on strong corporate earnings driven by fiscal and monetary stimulus, projecting the S&P 500 index to rise to 7800 points [4] Trade and Net Exports - The role of net exports in GDP growth is expected to be minimal, with a slight increase in export growth projected at around 2% in 2026, influenced by ongoing trade uncertainties and the gradual fading of tariff impacts [17]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that the OBBBA tax reform, effective from 2026, combined with the temporary inflation effects from Trump's tariffs and the ongoing AI infrastructure investments by tech giants like Microsoft and Google, will lead to a "Goldilocks" economic environment in the U.S. by 2026, characterized by moderate growth and stable inflation [1][2][3] Economic Growth Projections - The U.S. real GDP is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 2% in 2027, suggesting a gradual transition to a "Goldilocks" scenario [1][3] - The economic data from early 2025 shows a combination of rising consumer spending and adjusted GDP forecasts, enhancing the probability of a "Goldilocks" macroeconomic environment [2] Policy Impact - 2025 will be a pivotal year for the implementation of Trump's tax and fiscal policies, with a shift in focus from policy disruptions to how businesses and households adjust their spending under the OBBBA framework [3] - Morgan Stanley anticipates a series of interest rate cuts in 2025 and 2026, with the federal funds rate expected to stabilize around 3.0–3.25% [3] Stock Market Outlook - 2026 is defined as the "Year of Risk Reboot," where the focus will shift from macroeconomic factors to microeconomic fundamentals, driven by fiscal and monetary stimuli alongside an unprecedented AI investment cycle [4] - The S&P 500 index is projected to rise to 7800 points, up from 6672.41 points, due to strong corporate earnings growth [4] Consumer Spending Dynamics - Consumer spending is expected to slow in the first half of 2026 due to tariff impacts but will begin to recover in the latter half, supported by the OBBBA tax cuts and fiscal spending [5][8] - The inflation effects from tariffs are predicted to dissipate, allowing for increased consumer spending, particularly among lower-income groups [8] AI Investment Contributions - AI-related investments are expected to contribute approximately 0.4 percentage points to U.S. GDP growth annually from 2026 to 2027, accounting for about 20% of overall GDP growth [12] - Non-AI investments are projected to transition from being a drag on GDP growth to making a slow recovery contribution by 2026-2027 [11] Public Investment Support - The OBBBA and previous infrastructure legislation are expected to provide stable support for public investment, contributing positively to overall investment growth in 2026 [13] Net Exports Outlook - Net exports are not expected to significantly contribute to GDP growth, with an anticipated growth rate of around 2% in 2026, influenced by ongoing trade uncertainties and the gradual decline of tariff impacts [17]

01 华泰张继强：新开局下的叙事与主线【把握2026投资机会】 15:00-16:00 核心看点： AI投资热潮会否迎来关键验证？全球"财政扩张+货币配合"将如何搅动市场？国内新旧 动能转换能否进入"右侧开花结果"？明年我们能否等来企业盈利的实质性改善？ 嘉宾： 张继强丨华泰证券研究所所长，总量研究负责人，固收首席分析师 扫码预约 02 中金陈健恒：中美新老经济分化加剧，债牛趋势更为确定 16:00-17:00 核心看点 ： 聚焦三大核心驱动力：出口放量，核电资本开支加速与技术升级，以及AI数据中心用电 结构变革。 嘉宾： 廖启华丨瑞银大中华区能源转型及新能源行业研究主管 严亦舒丨瑞银证券中国公共事业及新能源行业分析师 利林海丨瑞银证券中国公共事业及新能源行业分析师 徐宾丨瑞银证券中国研究部总监 核心看点： 中美新老经济分化加剧，股牛和债牛并不对立。全球财政政策持续宽松后，面临制约的 情况下，货币政策有望接力放松，且全球货币政策空间依然较为充足。中国今年在贸易顺差和财政 赤字创新高的情况下，经济和股市有支撑，明年这两个因素的同比拉动减弱，债券利率将重新加快 回落速度。在全球贸易和地缘和各国政策摩擦性增加的情况 ...

摩根士丹利发布2026年全球战略展望，预计政策三重刺激与AI投资周期共振，将推动风险资产迎来强势年份，叠加强劲的企业盈利增长，美股有望领 跑全球市场。 11月17日，据追风交易台消息，大摩在最新发布的全球经济展望报告中将2026年定义为"风险重启之年"（The Year of Risk Reboot），认为市场焦点将 从宏观不确定性转向微观基本面，为风险资产创造了强劲的上涨环境。 大摩认为，财政政策、货币政策和放松监管的"政策三重奏"将在2026年形成罕见的顺周期组合，为风险资产营造有利环境。与此同时，AI相关资本支出 周期仍处于早期阶段，预计将为企业盈利提供持续动力。 该行首席美国股票策略师Michael Wilson将2026年标普500指数年末目标价上调至7800点，较当前水平上涨约15%，成为华尔街最乐观的声音之一，主要 得益于强劲的盈利增长、AI驱动的效率提升以及有利的政策环境支撑。 | | As of Nov | | Q4 2026 Forecast | | | Q4 2026 Return Forecast | | Volatility | Base Case | | --- | --- | - ...