Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing opportunities in cyclical industries from price expectations to performance realization, with a focus on the relationship between commodities and US Treasury yields [5][7][8] - In the week ending January 30, 2026, global stock markets showed mixed results, with Hong Kong and UK markets leading gains, while major commodity futures saw significant fluctuations, particularly in crude oil prices [5][6] - The report highlights that the manufacturing PMI for January 2026 fell to 49.3%, down from 50.1% in December, influenced by the upcoming Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous month [10][11] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the decline in the manufacturing PMI is not solely due to seasonal factors but also reflects a high base from the previous month, which saw an unusual improvement [10][11] - The report notes that the production index decreased to 50.6%, while the new orders index fell below the threshold to 49.2%, indicating a slowdown in demand [11][12] - The non-manufacturing PMI also showed weakness, dropping to 49.5%, primarily due to a decline in the construction sector, which was affected by seasonal factors and a high base from the previous month [12][13] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of various sectors in the domestic equity market, with financials, cyclical, and consumer sectors leading in trading volume, while 10 sectors saw gains and 21 sectors experienced declines [6][18] - The report highlights that the energy sector, particularly crude oil, saw significant price increases due to geopolitical tensions, while precious metals experienced a sharp decline following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair [5][7] - The report also mentions that the A-share market is currently facing downward pressure, with major indices showing significant declines, and emphasizes the need to monitor support levels in the coming weeks [18][19]

汉堡商业银行一位经济学家指出，目前仍不宜将PMI回升解读为制造业进入可持续复苏阶段，真正的复 苏有赖于"更为明显的需求改善"。 法国工业迎短期回暖 制造业复苏基础仍脆弱 中新网巴黎2月3日电 (李洋 孙羽婷)当地时间2日发布的经济数据显示，由于欧洲防务和军事开支增加， 法国工业活动在今年1月出现明显回暖，但复苏基础仍显脆弱。 标普全球(S&P Global)与汉堡商业银行(HCOB)当天发布的数据显示，法国制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)1 月终值升至51.2，高于去年12月的50.7，为近四年来最高水平。50为PMI枯荣线，大于50表示制造业扩 张，反之则表示收缩。 报告指出，这一回升主要得益于欧洲多国计划提高国防和军事支出，相关项目对法国工业形成支撑，改 善了企业对生产前景的预期。然而，调查显示整体需求依然疲弱。1月新订单总量小幅下降，销售表现 不佳，不少企业在成本上升的情况下通过下调产品价格来刺激需求。 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 从欧洲范围看，制造业复苏呈现明显分化 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to trade in a narrow range [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to trade weakly in resonance with market sentiment [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to trade weakly as cost expectations loosen, and silicomanganese is expected to trade weakly in resonance with commodity sentiment [2][12]. - Coke is expected to trade at high levels, and coking coal is expected to trade at high levels as events unfold [2][18][19]. - Thermal coal supply and demand are in a weak balance, and prices are expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][23]. - Logs are expected to see a slight price increase [2][25]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 783.0 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.07%. The open interest decreased by 20,544 to 520,684 lots. Spot prices of various iron ore types decreased, and some basis and price spreads changed [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar - **Fundamental Data**: In the week of January 29, rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.8 million tons. Rebar inventory increased by 23.43 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 9.12 million tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.45 million tons [8][10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were various production, inventory, and price data from the China Iron and Steel Association, and an accident at Baotou Steel's plate plant. Also, BHP's iron ore production hit a record high, and China implemented export license management for some steel products [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Various price spreads changed [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The proportion of fixed - cost recovery of coal - fired power units through capacity prices will be increased. There were price quotes and production data of ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and manganese ore from different sources. River Steel's 75B ferrosilicon tender price decreased, and manganese ore inventory increased [12][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coking coal (JM2605) and coke (J2605) decreased. Spot prices of most coking coal and coke types remained stable. Some basis and price spreads changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index decreased, and the coking coal online auction had a higher failure rate and mixed price changes [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [22]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: There were price data of thermal coal from different regions, including origin, port, and overseas prices. The February long - term contract prices of thermal coal in some regions decreased [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The port market was stable with weak trading. Some Indonesian coal mines may have a significant production cut. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on improving the power - generation - side capacity price mechanism [23][24]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: There were price, trading volume, and open - interest data of log futures contracts. Spot prices of various log types in different markets had different fluctuations [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [28].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market started February on a negative note, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 611 points or 2.23%, settling at 26,775 points, after a drop that saw it fall below the 27,000 mark [3] - The technology index faced significant losses, dropping over 4% and closing down 191 points or 3.36% at 5,526 points [3] - The overall market turnover was approximately 34.79 billion HKD [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.3 in January, marking a three-month high and exceeding market expectations of 50, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [7] - New orders, including overseas orders, contributed to the growth, with a slight acceleration in output growth [7] - Despite the positive indicators, business confidence fell to a nine-month low due to cost concerns, with companies reporting the strongest increase in costs in four months [7][8] Group 3: Company News - Xtep International (01368) proposed to issue 500 million HKD zero-coupon convertible bonds due in 2029, with a conversion price of 6.37 HKD per share, representing a 23.93% premium over the last closing price [11] - Western Cement (02233) plans to issue 300 million USD senior notes due in 2029, with proceeds intended for debt refinancing and working capital [12] - Ruipu Lanjun (00666) expects to turn a profit in the fiscal year ending December 2025, projecting a net profit between 630 million and 730 million RMB, driven by increased sales of power and energy storage battery products [13]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The RatingDog manufacturing PMI for January rose to 50.3%, marking a three-month high, while the official manufacturing PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics fell to 49.3% [2][3] - The divergence between the RatingDog and official PMI indicates an uneven economic recovery, with some provinces lowering their growth targets and emphasizing high-quality development [3] Group 2: Local Government Land Sales - Local government land sales revenue is projected to decline by 14.7% in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of double-digit declines, with a total decrease of 52.3% compared to the peak in 2021 [4] - The disparity in land sales revenue across provinces highlights the challenges faced by local governments, with some regions experiencing growth while most continue to struggle [4] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - International gold prices fell sharply, dropping over 6% to below $4,550 per ounce, while silver prices also saw significant declines [5][6] - The recent downturn in gold and silver prices reflects a broader market correction, influenced by speculative capital and the potential nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair [5][7] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Market Performance - In January, the AITO brand led the new energy vehicle market with over 40,000 units delivered, while competitors like Xiaomi and Li Auto faced declines in their sales figures [8][9] - The overall market for new energy vehicles is under pressure, with rising costs for raw materials and a stabilization in market penetration rates [9] Group 5: AI Application Investments - Alibaba has committed 30 billion yuan to promote its AI application, joining other tech giants in a competitive "red envelope war" during the Spring Festival [10][11] - The shift towards AI applications among major internet companies indicates a strategic pivot, although the effectiveness of such promotional tactics remains uncertain [11] Group 6: SpaceX Satellite Deployment Plans - SpaceX has applied to launch up to 1 million satellites, aiming to create a revolutionary "orbital data center system" to support advanced AI applications [12] - The financial projections for SpaceX suggest a potential revenue of $15-16 billion by 2025, with plans for a significant IPO that could surpass previous records [12] Group 7: Stock Market Overview - The stock market experienced a significant downturn, with major indices dropping over 2% amid a broader sell-off in commodities and concerns over global market risk [13][14] - The market's volatility is attributed to external factors and a shift in investor sentiment as the Chinese New Year approaches [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in manufacturing PMI and highlights the positive signals in factory prices, indicating potential recovery in the midstream sector due to improved supply-demand dynamics and resilient overseas exports [2][3][4]. Group 1: PMI Data - The manufacturing PMI for January is reported at 49.3%, down from 50.1% in the previous month. Key sub-indices include: - Production index at 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points from 51.7% - New orders index at 49.2%, down from 50.8% - New export orders index at 47.8%, down from 49.0% - Employment index at 48.1%, slightly down from 48.2% - Supplier delivery time index at 50.1%, down from 50.2% - Raw material inventory index at 47.4%, down from 47.8% [2][17][18]. Group 2: Price Indicators - Positive signals in price indicators are noted, including: - The PMI factory price index at 50.6%, marking the first rise above the critical point in nearly 20 months. Industries such as non-ferrous metal smelting and electrical machinery show significant increases in both raw material purchase prices and factory prices, exceeding 55.0% [5][14]. - The BCI consumer price expectations index surged to 51.5%, the first rise above the critical point in 28 months, while the profit expectations index reached 52.66%, the first rise above the critical point in 11 months [5][14]. - Micro-level price increases are observed in various sectors, including semiconductors, photovoltaic, and home appliances, with notable price hikes reported by companies like Zhongwei Semiconductor and Midea [6][15]. Group 3: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The article highlights a decrease in the proportion of companies reporting insufficient demand, with the manufacturing sector's percentage dropping to 54.9% in January from 64.3% in the previous month. This suggests an improvement in supply-demand dynamics [4][11]. - The midstream growth rate difference reached 10.4%, up from 8.1%, indicating a positive trend in demand relative to investment growth [4][11].

Report Investment Rating for the Industry - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke sector in the black industry is "oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Core View of the Report - The market shows strong expectations for demand improvement. Although the first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, there is unlikely to be a second - round increase before the Spring Festival. There may be some restocking demand for coking coal after the Spring Festival. The coking coal主力合约 is trying to break through the upper pressure level of 1,200, and it is considered to be oscillating with an upward bias in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On Friday, the coking coal主力 contract Jm2605 closed at 1,155.5 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decline compared to the daytime session opening. The coke主力 contract J2605 closed at 1,721.5 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decline compared to the daytime session opening. On Friday night, the coking coal主力 contract closed at 1,194.0 yuan/ton, a 3.33% increase compared to the daytime session closing, and the coke主力 contract closed at 1,746.0 yuan/ton, a 1.42% increase compared to the daytime session closing [1] Important News - In 2025, the national fiscal revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease, and fiscal expenditure was 28.74 trillion yuan, a 1% year - on - year increase [1] - In January 2026, the national steel industry PMI was 47.4, up 2.2 percentage points from 45.2 in December 2025. It remained in the contraction range for the third consecutive month, but the recovery amplitude was significantly larger [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised the trading margin requirements for COMEX gold and silver futures. For non - high - risk accounts, the gold futures margin will be increased from 6% to 8% of the current contract value, and for high - risk accounts, it will be raised from 6.6% to 8.8%. For silver, the non - high - risk account margin will be increased from 11% to 15%, and the high - risk account margin will be raised from 12.1% to 16.5% [1] - According to Mysteel's research, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79%, a 0.32 - percentage - point increase compared to last week and a 1.02 - percentage - point increase compared to last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.47%, a 0.04 - percentage - point decrease compared to last week and a 0.83 - percentage - point increase compared to last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, a 1.30 - percentage - point decrease compared to last week and a 9.53 - percentage - point decrease compared to last year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.2798 million tons, a 0.12 - million - ton decrease compared to last week and a 2.53 - million - ton increase compared to last year [1] Market Logic - Last week, macroscopically, many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, which is beneficial to the real - estate and its upstream industrial chains. Fundamentally, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the downstream demand is expected to decline, and the auction transaction situation is average [1] - Although the first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented today, there is unlikely to be a second - round increase before the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, the supply side will cut production, and coking enterprises need to maintain basic daily consumption. There may be some restocking demand for coking coal after the Spring Festival [1] Trading Strategy - The coking coal主力 contract has increased long positions and is trying to break through the upper pressure level of 1,200. It should be viewed as oscillating with an upward bias in the short term [1]

海外市场方面，美联储1月维持利率不变符合预期，美国总统特朗普确定下任美联储主席人选引发市场对后续货币政策走向猜测，美债 收益率曲线趋向陡峭。 行情回顾 2026年1月30日，中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期较1月23日分别变动 1.8BP、-1.94BP、-2.09BP、-2.04BP、-1.82BP、-1.86BP、0.19BP、1.5BP。 新华财经北京2月2日电（王柘）上周（2026年1月26日至1月30日）资金跨月，偏紧格局在央行流动性呵护下缓解。债券市场在商品和权 益市场走弱以及年初配置盘推动下多数走强，收益率下行约2BP。超长端或受供给担忧因素影响表现偏弱，收益率上行约1BP。 | | | 中债国债收益率曲线(到期)* | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 1月23日 | 1月30日 | 变动(BP) | | 0 | 1.088 | 1.112 | 2.4 | | 0.08 | 1.2608 | 1.2641 | 0. 33 | | 0. 17 | 1.3228 | 1. 3443 | 2. 15 ...

【国海银行&资产配置】1月PMI点评：景气度有所回落，非制造业持续扩张 【国海银行&资产配置】1月PMI点评：景气度有所回落，非制造业持续扩张 总体概况：综合PMI产出指数49.8%（↓0.9pp）；制造业PMI49.3%（↓0.8pp），不及彭博预期（50.1%）；非制 造业PMI49.4%（↓0.8pp）不及彭博预期（50.3%），我国经济景气水平有所回落。 受春节假日临近等因素影响，建筑业回落至收缩区间。 制造业 供需指数均有所下降：生产指数50.6%（↓1.1pp），高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张。 总体概况：综合PMI产出指数49.8%（↓0.9pp）；制造业PMI49.3%（↓0.8pp），不及彭博预期（50.1%）；非制 造业PMI49.4%（↓0.8pp）不及彭博预期（50.3%），我国经济景气水平有所回落。 受春节假日临近等因素影响，建筑业回落至收缩区间。 制造业 供需指数均有所 市场预期总体向好：生产经营活动预期指数52.6%（↓2.9pp），继续高于临界点，企业预期保持乐观。 从行业看，受节前备货等因素带动，农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数连续两个 月位于56. ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but some senators oppose the nomination unless the investigation against Powell is dropped. Warsh's policy stance may combine rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction [2] - In 2025, China's national fiscal revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, down 1.7% year - on - year, with securities transaction stamp duty revenue up 57.8% to 203.5 billion yuan. Fiscal expenditure was 28.74 trillion yuan, up 1% year - on - year, and about 10 billion yuan in child - rearing subsidies were issued [2] - China's official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points month - on - month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points; and the composite PMI output index was 49.8%, down 0.9 percentage points [3] - Trump declares a national emergency, threatening to impose ad - valorem tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba, and warns of potential 50% tariffs on Canadian planes [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the daily price limit of silver futures contracts from 2605 to 2701 to 17% and the margin ratios for hedging and general positions to 18% and 19% respectively from the close of February 3 [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: urea, lithium carbonate, coking coal, silver, PVC [4] - Night session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 1.85%, precious metals rose 38.07%, oilseeds rose 7.90%, soft commodities rose 2.17%, non - ferrous metals rose 26.49%, coal - coking - steel - ore rose 8.22%, energy rose 2.59%, chemicals rose 9.23%, grains rose 1.00%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.48% [4] 3. Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days from January 26 to January 30, 2026 [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.96% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 3.76% year - to - date; S&P 500 fell 0.43% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 1.37% year - to - date; Hang Seng Index fell 2.08% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 6.85% year - to - date, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.06%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01%, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures were flat [6] - Commodities: CRB commodity index fell 1.12% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 7.13% year - to - date; WTI crude oil rose 0.37% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 14.19% year - to - date; London spot gold fell 9.25% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 13.01% year - to - date [6] - Others: US dollar index rose 0.99% daily, 0% monthly, and fell 1.17% year - to - date; CBOE volatility index rose 3.32% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 16.66% year - to - date [6] 5. Stock Market Risk Appetite and Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, etc., as well as the risk premium of the stock market [7]