分析师 张伟 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060002 zhangwei04@ctsec.com 联系人 连桐杉 liants@ctsec.com 相关报告 证券研究报告 宏观点评 / 2025.08.01 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ "反内卷"后的首个 PMI 核心观点 1. 《中共中央政治局会议点评——聚焦结 构性改革》 2025-07-31 《政策保持克制——7 月政治局会议解 读 》 2025-07-31 3. 《美国内需延续转弱——美国 2025 年二 季度 GDP 数据解读》 2025-07-31 ❖ 7 月，价格是 PMI 最超预期的分项：7 月主要原材料购进价格指数和出 厂价格指数分别为 51.5%和 48.3%，分别较上月上升 3.1 和 2.1 个百分点， 价格分项超预期变化的背后是"反内卷"下企业预期的加速反应，我们把价格 指标抽丝剥茧，进一步分行业研究发现：上游加工业景气度靠前主因在原材 料价格大幅上行→企业为了维系利润→提高出厂价格，因此景气程度环比有 较多提升，中游制造业景气度提升次之可能是由于关税摩擦下，企业加大出 海力度，带动了对机械设备的需求。 ❖ "反内卷"第一个月， ...

2025 年 08 月 01 日 极端天气与反内卷致量价反向波动 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn 事件 受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害 等因素影响，7 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3，环比下降 0.4，连续 4 个月低于枯荣线，7 月为 4 个月以来最低；非制造业 PMI 为 50.1，环比下跌 0.4；综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2，环比下降 0.5 个百分点。 7 月份中国战略性新兴产业 EPMI 为 46.8，比上月回落 1.1 个 百分点。服务业健康医疗服务业、新材料产业表现最好。 投资要点 ▌ 制造业：极端天气影响生产 极端天气与反内卷共同作用下，供需两端边际回调，生产指 数扩张幅度下降 0.5 至 50.5，新订单指数大幅下降 0.8，重 回荣枯线以下（49.4），其中新出口订单指数下降 0.6 至 47.1，一定程度受前期抢出口的影响，内需下滑或有 618 的 影响。企业生产经营活动更趋谨慎：进口指标保持 47.8；原 材料库存下降 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Manufacturing - Overall: In July, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 25.4%, with a change of - 18.6%. Seven industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, an increase of 1 month - on - month and 5 year - on - year [4]. - Supply: It slightly rebounded. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in July was 50.7, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined [4]. - Demand: It slightly improved. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 49.8, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined [4]. - Inventory: De - stocking slowed down. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in July remained unchanged at 47.3, with 7 industries seeing inventory increases and 8 seeing decreases. The raw - material inventory in March increased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7, with 6 industries seeing inventory increases and 8 seeing decreases [4]. Non - manufacturing - Overall: In July, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 15.2%, with a change of - 15.3%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 1 year - on - year [5]. - Supply: Employment slowed down. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in July remained unchanged at 45.5. The service industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points, while the construction industry increased by 1 percentage point [5]. - Demand: It recovered. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 46.1, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The service industry's new orders increased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry's increased by 1 percentage point [5]. - Inventory: De - stocking slowed down. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in July remained unchanged at 45.4. The service industry remained unchanged, and the construction industry increased by 0.2 percentage points [5]. Summary by Directory Overview - Manufacturing PMI: In July, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 25.4%, with a change of - 18.6%. Seven industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, an increase of 1 month - on - month and 5 year - on - year [10]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: In July, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 15.2%, with a change of - 15.3%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 1 year - on - year [10]. Demand: Focus on the Improvement of General Equipment and Construction Installation and Decoration - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 49.8, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined [17]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 46.1, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The service industry's new orders increased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry's increased by 1 percentage point. By industry, 8 industries improved month - on - month, while 7 declined [17]. Supply: Focus on the Contraction of Non - ferrous Metals, Automobiles, and Textiles - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in July was 50.7, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined. The manufacturing PMI employee index in March remained unchanged at 48.0. Six industries improved month - on - month, while 9 declined [24]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in July remained unchanged at 45.5. The service industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry increased by 1 percentage point. By industry, 4 industries improved month - on - month, while 11 declined [24]. Price: Focus on the Pressure of Non - ferrous Metals and Textiles - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI ex - factory price index in July was 46.4, a 1.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries saw price improvements, while 6 declined. In terms of profit, the profit trend in March decreased by 1.4 percentage points, and the overall profit continued to converge [31]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing charge price index in July was 48.0, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The service industry increased by 0.4 percentage points, and the construction industry increased by 0.7 percentage points. By industry, 8 industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined. In terms of profit, the profit in March decreased by 0.6 percentage points. The service industry decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the construction industry decreased by 1.3 percentage points [31]. Inventory: Focus on the Low Levels of Postal Services and Textile and Apparel - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in July remained unchanged at 47.3. Seven industries saw inventory increases, and 8 saw decreases. The raw - material inventory in March increased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7. Six industries saw inventory increases, and 8 saw decreases [40]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in July remained unchanged at 45.4. The service industry remained unchanged, and the construction industry increased by 0.2 percentage points. By industry, 6 industries saw inventory increases, and 9 saw decreases [40]. Main Manufacturing Industry PMI Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing data such as the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI in July, new orders, production, prices, and inventory, along with their changes and five - year percentiles [8]. - Tables present detailed PMI data for various manufacturing industries, including general equipment, automobiles, computers, and others, covering aspects like new orders, production, employment, prices, and inventory [51][56][60].

标普全球东盟制造业PMI报告显示，该地区对未来制造业产出的信心降至2020年7月以来的最低水平，远低于长期平均水平。🗒️东盟经济高度依赖工业生产和出口，尤其是对美国的出口，是全球贸易活动和需求的晴雨表之一。 https://t.co/3N6CArgxmB ...

Group 1: National Fertility Subsidy - The national fertility subsidy covers a wider range, with a total subsidy of 10,800 CNY per newborn over three years, compared to a median of 6,600 CNY and an average of 8,700 CNY for local subsidies[3][16] - The first-year budget for the national fertility subsidy is approximately 100 billion CNY, expected to promote the birth of about 330,000 newborns[4][16] - The short-term leverage effect of the subsidy is estimated at 0.9 times, potentially increasing to about 1.4 times in the medium to long term, with a GDP increase of 926 billion CNY in 2025[4][19] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity[5][13] - The production PMI decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, while new orders, new export orders, and imports fell to 49.4%, 47.1%, and 44.7% respectively[5][22] - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to boost commodity prices, with July PPI projected to improve slightly to -3.0% year-on-year[5][29] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction PMI fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, indicating a potential continuation of the slowdown in infrastructure investment[6][35] - The service sector remains relatively stable, with a service PMI of 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points, and new orders declining to 46.3%[6][42] - Infrastructure investment may be affected by high base effects in Q3 and Q4, requiring policy measures to mitigate the impact[6][35] Group 4: Risks and Economic Outlook - Risks include unexpected policy changes and a potential recession in the U.S. economy[7][45] - The overall economic impact of the fertility subsidy includes direct boosts to consumer spending and indirect effects on child-rearing and housing demand[4][18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the domestic stock index futures market showed a continuous upward trend, with IC and IM performing stronger than IF and IH. In August, the stock index may maintain a structural market. One can focus on short - term oversold rebound opportunities catalyzed by policies, but be vigilant against fluctuations caused by economic data falling short of expectations. It is recommended to participate with a light position and closely follow the central bank's medium - term lending facility operations and real estate policy trends [5][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - In July, the domestic stock index futures market continued to strengthen. The month - on - month increases of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 4.14%, 3.27%, 6.16%, and 6.33% respectively [5]. - Last month, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures rose, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bond futures fell [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month but still above the critical point. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and business activities of Chinese enterprises remained in an expansion state [8][9][13]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of July 31, the PE, percentile, and PB of the CSI 300 Index were 13.39 times, 72.8%, and 1.41 times respectively; those of the SSE 50 Index were 11.48 times, 85.13%, and 1.27 times respectively; those of the CSI 500 Index were 30.78 times, 73.39%, and 2.06 times respectively; and those of the CSI 1000 Index were 41.3 times, 66.34%, and 2.29 times respectively [14]. 3.4 Other Data - The "total market value/GDP" quantile in historical data was 77.08%. On July 30, 2025, the "total market value/GDP" quantiles in the recent 10 - year data were 81.07% and 76.31% [25]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - In July, the stock index futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, but the upward foundation was still unstable. The market contradiction lies in the game between policy expectations and fundamental reality. In August, the stock index may maintain a structural market. One can focus on short - term opportunities but be cautious about risks [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index showed a downward trend with fluctuations, while the TMT sector remained strong. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the market faced adjustment pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3][4]. - Due to the decline in PMI and the fall of risk assets, the bond futures market continued to rise. It is recommended to allocate more in the short - term and pay attention to high - frequency economic data [6]. - The impact of US tariffs on inflation continued to emerge. Gold prices rose and then fell, and silver prices were under pressure. It is recommended to buy gold at low levels and pay attention to the changes in silver's industrial demand [9][10]. - The main contract of container shipping futures declined. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12]. - Most non - ferrous metals were under pressure. Copper prices were affected by the disappointment of US copper tariff expectations; aluminum prices were affected by the off - season and macro factors; other non - ferrous metals also faced different supply - demand and macro challenges [17][22][28]. - Black metals showed different trends. Steel prices turned to a volatile state; iron ore prices fluctuated with steel prices; coking coal and coke prices fluctuated sharply, and there were concerns about short - term peaks [42][45][49]. - In the agricultural products sector, the price of soybean meal was supported by import concerns; the price of live pigs was expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate; the price of corn was in a range - bound state [57][59][62]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the main indexes opened lower and declined with fluctuations. The TMT sector rose against the trend, while the pro - cyclical sectors fell collectively. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and most of the basis of the main contracts was at a discount [2][3]. - **News**: China's July official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activity index declined, and the comprehensive PMI output index also decreased. Overseas, Trump announced new tariff policies [3]. - **Funding**: On July 31, the trading volume of the A - share market reached a new high, and the net capital withdrawal by the central bank was 4.78 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the adjustment pressure caused by the difference between market expectations and policies, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 28.32 billion yuan on July 31, with a net capital withdrawal of 4.78 billion yuan. After the cross - month period, the funding is expected to return to a loose state [5][6]. - **Fundamentals**: China's July official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI declined, but still remained above the critical point, indicating that the overall production and business activities of enterprises maintained an expansion [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to allocate more in the short - term to play the wave - repair market of bond futures and pay attention to high - frequency economic data [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **News**: Trump reached a 90 - day short - term agreement with Mexico, maintaining the current tariffs. The US 6 - month core PCE price index increased year - on - year [7][8]. - **Market Performance**: Gold prices rose and then fell, and silver prices were affected by the decline in the non - ferrous sector [9]. - **Funding**: Some funds continued to flow into ETFs, supporting the price [10]. - **Outlook**: The price of gold is expected to be under pressure in the short term and test the support of the 100 - day moving average. Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 36 - 37 US dollars [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy gold at low levels and pay attention to the changes in silver's industrial demand [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Price**: As of July 31, the spot prices of major shipping companies continued to decline [11]. - **Index**: As of July 28, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index declined [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of July 31, the global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [11]. - **Logic**: The futures price declined, and the main contract price was driven down by the falling spot price [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12]. Financial Derivatives - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of July 31, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the trading sentiment was average [13]. - **Macro**: Multiple important meetings were held, and the US 50% electrolytic copper tariff expectation was disappointed [14]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate was restricted, and the production of electrolytic copper was expected to increase in July [15]. - **Demand**: The short - term domestic demand was resilient, but there was marginal pressure in Q3 [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories all increased [16]. - **Logic**: The US copper tariff expectation was disappointed, and the non - US electrolytic copper market showed a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak demand", and the price was under pressure in the short term [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 77,000 to 79,000 yuan [17]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: On July 31, the spot prices of aluminum oxide in different regions remained unchanged [17]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased year - on - year, and the operating capacity increased [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of aluminum oxide increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts decreased [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price of aluminum oxide declined, and the basis decreased. There was a risk of short - squeeze due to the low warehouse receipts [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 3,000 to 3,400 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On July 31, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [19]. - **Supply**: In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum was expected to decline in July [20]. - **Demand**: The downstream was in the traditional off - season, and the starting rates of various industries were generally stable or slightly decreased [20]. - **Inventory**: The domestic mainstream consumption area inventory increased, and the LME inventory increased slightly [21]. - **Logic**: The aluminum price declined, and the off - season inventory accumulation expectation was strong. The price was under pressure in the short term [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 20,200 to 21,000 yuan [22]. Zinc - **Spot**: On July 31, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the trading was average [25]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore was expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc was expected to increase in July [26]. - **Demand**: The starting rates of the three primary processing industries were differentiated, and the demand was affected by the price increase [27]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [27]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore was expected to be loose, but the production growth rate was lower than expected. The demand was affected by the price increase, and the price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 22,000 to 23,000 yuan [28]. Tin - **Spot**: On July 31, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the trading was dull [28]. - **Supply**: In June, the import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased and increased respectively [29]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In June, the starting rate of solder decreased, and the demand showed a weak trend. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the domestic social inventory increased [29][30]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a wide - range shock [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the changes in Sino - US negotiations and Myanmar's post - resumption inventory [31]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of July 31, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [31]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of refined nickel decreased slightly, and the production in July was expected to increase slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating was stable, the alloy demand was good, the stainless steel demand was general, and the production of nickel sulfate decreased [32]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remained high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded area inventory remained stable [32]. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment was weak, and the nickel price was under pressure. The supply of nickel ore was relatively loose, and the stainless steel demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a range adjustment in the short term [33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of July 31, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased [34]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was loose, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the price of ferrochrome was weakly stable [34]. - **Supply**: In July, the estimated production of stainless steel decreased, and the production of 300 - series decreased [34][35]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [35]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel price declined, and the terminal demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a range shock in the short term [36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan [36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of July 31, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the price of lithium hydroxide increased slightly [37]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production in July was expected to continue to increase. The recent supply was disturbed, and the production decreased last week [38]. - **Demand**: The demand was relatively stable, and the seasonal performance was weakened [38]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory began to decrease, the upstream inventory decreased significantly, and the downstream inventory increased [39]. - **Logic**: The lithium carbonate price was weak, and the trading core shifted to the ore end. The short - term supply uncertainty increased, and the price was expected to be in a wide - range shock [40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and pay attention to the macro - expectation changes and supply adjustment [41]. Financial Derivatives - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price decreased significantly, and the basis strengthened [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost increased, but the steel price also increased, and the steel mill's profit increased [41]. - **Supply**: The molten iron production was stable at a high level, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly. The production of rebar decreased seasonally, and the production of hot - rolled coil remained high [41]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products was stable at a high level, and the seasonal decline was not significant [42]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of mainstream steel products was stable at a low level, and the off - season inventory accumulation was less than expected [42]. - **Viewpoint**: The market expectation cooled down, and the steel price turned to a volatile state. It is recommended to go long on dips [42]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders remained unchanged [43]. - **Futures**: The 09 and far - month contracts of iron ore decreased [43]. - **Basis**: The optimal deliverable product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different varieties was different [44]. - **Demand**: The molten iron production decreased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged, and the steel mill's profit rate increased [44]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased [44]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased slightly, the daily average unloading volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [44]. - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore price was expected to follow the steel price. It is recommended to go long cautiously on a single - side and long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil in an arbitrage [45]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price decreased significantly, and the spot auction price fluctuated. The Mongolian coal price decreased [46][49]. - **Supply**: The coal mine operating rate decreased slightly, and the domestic coking coal auction was good. The Mongolian coal price followed the futures price down [46][49]. - **Demand**: The coking operating rate was stable, the downstream blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly at a high level, and the downstream replenishment increased [47][49]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory decreased rapidly, the port inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased at a low level [48][49]. - **Viewpoint**: The coking coal price fluctuated sharply. The spot market was relatively stable, and the futures price had over - expected increase. It is recommended to wait and see for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [49]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price decreased, and the spot factory price increased, while the port trade price decreased. The mainstream coking enterprises initiated the fifth - round price increase [50][53]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke was - 45 yuan, and different regions had different profit situations [50]. - **Supply**: The coke production was stable, and the coal mine production recovery was less than expected [50][53]. - **Demand**: The blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly at a high level, and the downstream demand provided support [51][53]. - **Inventory**: The coking plant inventory continued to decrease, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased [52][53]. - **Viewpoint**: The coke price had a short - term price increase expectation, but there was a risk of peaking and falling back. It is recommended to wait and see for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [53]. Financial Derivatives - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume increased. The price of rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the trading volume was small [55]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's soybean export volume in July was estimated, and China and the US held trade talks [55][56]. - **Market Outlook**: The US soybean price was weak, and the domestic soybean meal price was supported by import concerns. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs rebounded, and the prices in different regions increased [58]. - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchased piglet fattening decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased [58][59]. - **Market Outlook**: The live pig price was expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate. The near - month 09 contract had strong upward pressure, and the far - month contract was affected by policies [59][60]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in different regions were stable or decreased slightly, and the trading was light [61]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventories of different links decreased, and the feed enterprise's inventory days decreased slightly [62]. - **Market Outlook**: The import corn auction continued, and the impact was weakened. The short - term market was range - bound, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand situation was different [62].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：8月1日关税大限临近，今日重要事件和数据集中，金价震荡回升；美国 三大股指全线收跌，欧洲主要股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美 债收益率跌0.20个基点报4.366%；美元指数跌0.02%报100.04，离岸人民币对美元小 幅贬值报7.2085；COMEX黄金期货跌0.31%报3342.30美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货770.28，现货766.53，基差-3.75，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单35643千克，增加2199千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线 ...

7月31日（周四），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价因需求低迷下跌。而美国铜价创下史上最大单日跌 幅，之前美国总统特朗普意外宣布将广泛交易的精炼铜排除在50%的进口关税之外，导致投资者纷纷调 整仓位。 伦敦时间7月31日17:00(北京时间8月1日00:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌87.5美元，或0.9%，收报每吨 9,611.0美元。 | | 7月31日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金属 | 收盘价 | 系跌 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9,611.00 - | -87.50 -0.90% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,565.00 ↓ | -36.00 -1.38% | | 三个月期锌 | 2.760.50 | -25.00 -0.90% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,970.50 | -21.50 -1.08% | | 三个月期镇 | 14,936.00 ↓ | -85.00 ↓ -0.57% | | 三个月期锡 | | 32,710.00 - - 650.00 - 1.95% | Marex分析师Ed Meir表示："特朗普声明的影响……是巨大的 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - In July, China's manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3, while medium and small enterprises recorded PMIs of 49.5 and 46.4, respectively, with small enterprises showing a significant contraction [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1, also down by 0.4 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating overall expansion in business activities [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes [3] - There is internal division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with two officials supporting a reduction [4] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that the timing of any future rate cuts is under evaluation, particularly in light of potential weaknesses in the job market and consumer spending [4] Group 3: Company Earnings Reports - Meta reported Q2 revenue of $47.516 billion, a 22% increase year-over-year, with net profit rising 36% to $18.337 billion [5] - Microsoft achieved Q4 revenue of $76.4 billion, an 18% year-over-year growth, with net profit increasing by 24% to $27.2 billion [7] - Luckin Coffee's Q2 net income reached 1.251 billion yuan, a 43.6% increase, with total revenue of 12.359 billion yuan, up 47.1% year-over-year [9] Group 4: Industry Trends and Challenges - Ningde Times reported a 33.33% increase in net profit for the first half of the year, with total revenue of 178.886 billion yuan, but faced challenges from price competition in the domestic market [11][12] - The AI sector is driving significant revenue growth for companies like Meta and Microsoft, with both firms investing heavily in AI capabilities [6][8] - Luckin Coffee's aggressive pricing strategy to gain market share has led to increased delivery costs, raising concerns about long-term profitability [10] Group 5: Market Performance - On July 31, the Chinese stock market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.18% [15] - The market showed mixed performance with over 4,200 stocks declining, while sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and AI applications remained active [15][16] - The overall market sentiment was affected by expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy and trade negotiations [15]