本周铁矿石期货呈"先强后弱"态势，主力合约I2601周初反弹至810.5元/吨高位后逐步回落，最终周涨 3.76%收于800元/吨，未能突破前期震荡区间。市场情绪偏向谨慎。 供给端，全球发运高位，国内供应稳健。国际层面，本周全球铁矿石发运总量3388.4万吨，环比增加 54.9万吨；其中澳巴发运量2844.5万吨，环比增3.8%，巴西发运量单周大增100.8万吨至925.1万吨，淡 水河谷等四大矿山发运量同比处于近三年同期高位，供应压力显著。 （原标题：铁矿石供需转弱维持震荡，棕榈油连续下跌｜期货周报） 南方财经记者 翁榕涛 实习生 胡剑铭 周内（10月27日至10月31日），大宗商品市场涨跌不一，能源化工领跌，黑色系领涨，基本金属板块分 化不一。 就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周下跌2.45%、原油下跌1.33%；黑色系板块，铁矿石 周上涨3.76%、焦煤上涨3.00%、焦炭上涨1.11%；基本金属板块，碳酸锂周上涨1.58%、沪铜下跌 0.81%、沪镍下跌1.28%；贵金属板块，沪金周下跌1.72%、沪银上涨0.96%；农产品板块，豆粕周上涨 3.00%、棕榈油下跌3.92%、生猪下跌2.96 ...

从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.9%、48.7%和47.1%，比上月下降1.1个、0.1个和1.1个 百分点，景气水平不同程度回落。其中，大型企业生产指数和新订单指数分别为50.9%和50.1%，均连 续6个月位于扩张区间，制造业大型企业产需持续释放。 文韬表示，10月份，随着"反内卷"相关政策稳步推进，制造业中的市场价格积极变化继续累积。装备制 造业购进价格指数和出厂价格指数均连续3个月环比上升，其中10月出厂价格指数创2024年6月以来新 高；高技术制造业购进价格指数和出厂价格指数较上月均有所上升，其中出厂价格指数创今年以来新 高。结合来看，当前新动能原材料和产成品价格联动向好运行。 10月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.1%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，升至扩张区间。其中，服务业商务 活动指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，服务业景气水平有所回升。建筑业商务活动指数为 49.1%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，建筑业景气水平有所回落。 中国物流与采购联合会副会长何辉认为，10月份商务活动指数较上月微幅上升，今年以来保持在50%及 以上的水平，新订单指数与上月持平，显示非制造业经营活动继 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the decline of manufacturing PMI, weaker than the seasonal level and with weakening supply and demand, may indicate certain downward pressure on the Q4 economy [2][7]. - Both domestic and external demands declined, and price indicators did not continue the improvement trend of last month. The differentiated structure of "strong raw material prices and weak finished - product prices" may restrict the repair of corporate profits [2][7]. - The business climate of large enterprises fell below the boom - bust line, and the business climates of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries significantly declined [2][7]. - The business climate of the non - manufacturing industry is mainly driven by holiday service consumption, and the overall expansion strength is still weak [2][7]. - The trading logic of the bond market in Q4 focuses on the weakening economic fundamentals and the expectation of monetary easing, and a repair market may be welcomed. It is expected that the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond (tax - exempt) may decline to 1.65% - 1.7%, and the yield of the taxable bond may decline to 1.7% - 1.75% [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 pct from the previous month, lower than the Wind consensus forecast of 50.0%. The non - manufacturing business activity index slightly increased by 0.1 pct to 50.1%, slightly higher than the boom - bust line and lower than the Wind consensus forecast of 50.3%. Among them, the service industry business activity index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.1 pct, and the construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, a decrease of 0.2 pct [5]. 3.2 Event Comment - **Manufacturing PMI and economic pressure**: The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 fell back to a nearly two - year low. The production index and new order index decreased by 2.2 pct and 0.9 pct respectively to 49.7% and 48.8%. The procurement volume index decreased significantly by 2.6 pct to 49.0%, and the difference between the "finished - product inventory - on - hand orders" index widened by 0.6 pct to 3.6 pct. The weak pattern of production and demand was partly due to the pre - release of some demand before the National Day holiday and partly reflected the lack of endogenous momentum, indicating certain downward pressure on the Q4 economy [7]. - **Demand and price situation**: In October, external demand did not continue its resilience, and the new export order index significantly declined by 1.9 pct to 45.9%. The new order index for domestic demand also turned from rising to falling. The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index both decreased by 0.7 pct, recording 52.5% and 47.5% respectively. The difference between them remained at 5.0 pct, and the main raw material purchase price index was still in the expansion range. The "strong raw material prices and weak finished - product prices" structure may restrict the repair of corporate profits [7]. - **Enterprise and industry changes**: Among enterprises, the PMIs of large and small enterprises both fell by 1.1 pct to 49.9% and 47.1% respectively, and the PMI of medium - sized enterprises slightly fell by 0.1 pct to 48.7%. In terms of industries, the PMIs of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries were 50.5% and 50.2% respectively, a decline of 1.1 pct and 1.7 pct from the previous month. The consumer goods industry remained in the expansion range, slightly falling by 0.5 pct to 50.1%, while the PMI of the basic raw material industry further dropped to 47.3%. The overall market expectation was optimistic, with the production and business activity expectation index at 52.8%, and the expectation indexes of industries such as non - ferrous metals and transportation equipment rising to the high - level boom range above 60% [7]. - **Non - manufacturing industry situation**: In October, the non - manufacturing PMI slightly increased by 0.1 pct to 50.1%, and the service industry PMI rose to 50.2%. The on - hand order index fell by 0.8 pct while the new order index remained flat, indicating that the holiday effect was the main driver. The business activity indexes of industries such as transportation, accommodation, and culture and entertainment were all in the high - level boom range above 60%, but industries such as real estate continued to be sluggish. The construction industry business activity index turned from rising to falling, decreasing by 0.2 pct to 49.1%, possibly dragged down by the slowdown of holiday construction and the decline of post - holiday real estate sales [7]. - **Bond market outlook**: Currently, the endogenous momentum for the repair of production and demand may be limited. On the day when the PMI data was released, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond decreased by 0.95 BP. The economic fundamentals still face a pattern of weak supply and demand, the pressure on enterprises for passive inventory replenishment continues, and the ex - factory - raw material price gap still restricts the repair of corporate profits. Although 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been put in place and local governments have an additional 200 billion yuan of special bond quotas, the sustainability of the recovery of real estate sales and the transmission effect of policy funds on infrastructure investment still need to be observed. The trading logic of the bond market in Q4 focuses on the weakening economic fundamentals and the expectation of monetary easing, and a repair market may be welcomed. It is expected that the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond (tax - exempt) may decline to 1.65% - 1.7%, and the yield of the taxable bond may decline to 1.7% - 1.75% [7].

Group 1: PMI Analysis - October manufacturing PMI declined to 49% from 49.8%, reaching the level of April 2025[6] - The production sector showed significant decline, with production and procurement PMI components experiencing large month-on-month drops[6] - Service sector PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, driven by holiday effects, particularly in transportation and hospitality sectors[6] Group 2: External Demand and Policy Impact - New export orders PMI fell to 45.9%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points, indicating persistent external demand pressure[6] - Despite a 10% reduction in tariffs on certain goods, the short-term improvement in foreign trade orders is expected to be limited due to prior over-expectation[6] - New government policies are beginning to show effects on domestic demand, with consumer goods PMI at 50.1%, indicating resilience compared to high-tech sectors[6] Group 3: Investment and Future Outlook - A total of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools has been fully allocated, targeting sectors like digital economy and infrastructure[6] - Although construction PMI slightly decreased to 49.1%, new orders and business activity expectations PMI rose significantly, suggesting upcoming demand growth[6] - The overall economic stabilization is anticipated as external shocks are gradually absorbed and domestic demand expands[6]

October 31, 2025 05:01 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Oct PMI: Payback, But Some Greenshoots Key Takeaways Manufacturing PMI held up better than it appears: The sharp drop in Oct manufacturing PMI was mainly due to the timing shift of the Mid-Autumn Festival to October this year, which led to front-loaded production in September. Removing the distortion, Sep-Oct combined manufacturing PMI was at 49.4, the same as the Aug reading. Signs of fiscal pass-through: Both construction and service PMIs underp ...

Meanwhile, Dow's up about 40. We're getting Chicago PMI for that. We'll turn to Rick Santelli.Happy Friday, Rick. Happy Friday. Happy Halloween.And yes, we are getting some of the PMIs. We get confidence numbers. They don't go through the government.Chicago's October read on PMI comes in better than expected. 43.8%. We're expecting a number closer to 42 and a half.There's good and there's bad. This is the best since well, July of this year, but that's still an improvement. sequentially higher than our final ...

Group 1: PMI Overview - In October, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49% from 49.8%, while the non-manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 50.1% from 50%[6][1] - The decline in October PMI is attributed to weak demand and high inventory levels impacting production indices significantly[1][7] - The production index fell to 49.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points, marking a return to contraction territory for the first time in six months[1][7] Group 2: Key Issues Affecting PMI - The production index's significant drop is linked to the end of a "production rush" and high inventory levels, which constrained the PMI's upward movement in October[2][10] - New export orders saw a notable decline of 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, the second-lowest point this year, influenced by fluctuating tariff policies[2][13] - Domestic demand remains resilient, but investment demand has weakened due to accelerated debt reduction, impacting high-energy industries and construction PMI[3][17] Group 3: Sector Performance - The high-energy sector's PMI fell to 47.3%, reflecting strong pressure on real estate and infrastructure investment due to debt reduction measures[3][17] - The construction PMI decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.1%, although the new orders index increased by 3.7 percentage points to 45.9%[4][40] - Service sector PMI improved slightly to 50.2%, driven by holiday travel and pre-"Double Eleven" promotional activities[4][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The yield of treasury bonds has reached a short - term peak, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield at 1.85% may be the top in the future. Treasury bond futures are likely to fluctuate with a slight upward bias in the short term [6][37]. - The overall economic situation in October shows that the manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line, the non - manufacturing business activity index is slightly above the boom - bust line, and the real estate market is still at the bottom, which is generally favorable for the bond market [9][24][32]. 3. Summary by Related Content Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, treasury bond futures rose continuously throughout the week. After the central bank governor announced the resumption of open - market treasury bond trading on October 27, treasury bond futures jumped significantly higher on Tuesday. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 1.43%, the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.62%, the 5 - year treasury bond rose 0.43%, and the 2 - year treasury bond rose 0.21% [4]. - The yield curve of treasury bond cash bonds shifted downward in parallel. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields decreased by 9BP, 5BP, 5BP, and 7BP respectively from October 24 to October 31 [6]. Manufacturing PMI - In October, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the seventh consecutive month. Affected by the double - holiday and external factors, the decline was larger than the seasonal factor. The PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises showed different trends, with large enterprises slightly below the boom - bust line, medium - sized enterprises remaining stable, and small enterprises facing greater pressure [9]. - The production index in October was 49.7%, and the new order index was 48.8%, indicating a slowdown in production and a decline in market demand. However, new - energy - related industries such as equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing remained in the expansion range [12]. - The new export order index in October was 45.9%, and the import index was 46.8%, both showing a decline. It is expected that the new export order index will rebound significantly in November due to the Sino - US summit [14]. - The purchase price index of major raw materials in October was 52.5%, and the ex - factory price index was 47.5%. It is expected that the PPI in October will decline by about 2.3% year - on - year, the same as in September [17]. - The raw material inventory index in October was 47.3%, and the finished product inventory index was 48.1%. Manufacturing enterprises continued to be cautious about increasing inventory [20]. - The manufacturing employment index in October was 48.3%, and the production and business activity expectation index was 52.8%, showing a slight decline in the expectation of future prosperity [22]. Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index - In October, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%. The construction business activity index was 49.1%, and the service business activity index was 50.2%, showing a mild expansion [24]. - The new order index of the construction industry in October was 45.9%, and the employment index was 39.9%. The business activity expectation index was 56.0%, indicating a slight decline in the construction industry's prosperity [27]. - The new order index of the service industry in October was 46.0%, and the employment index was 46.1%. The business activity expectation index was 56.1%. Some industries such as railway transportation and aviation transportation were in a high - level prosperity range, while industries such as insurance and real estate were below the critical point [29]. Real Estate Market - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in October decreased by 25% year - on - year, and the decline widened. The national commercial housing sales are still at the bottom, and it is expected that the real estate development investment in October will still contract significantly, dragging down the construction industry [32]. Capital Market - This week, the short - term capital interest rate first rose and then fell, and the one - year AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate also declined [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the PMI data showed a combination of "manufacturing decline and non - manufacturing slight increase." The manufacturing PMI declined more than seasonally, presenting a "weak supply and demand" pattern. Due to factors such as pre - holiday demand release, international environment complexity, and global economic slowdown, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter may slow down marginally [3][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 10 - Month PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous value and below the seasonal level. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous value, entering the expansion range. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the previous value, at the critical point [3][9]. 10 - Month Manufacturing Situation Supply and Demand - The production index in October was 49.7%, a 2.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, below the boom - bust line and weaker than the seasonal performance. The new order index was 48.8%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in demand. The new export order index was 45.9%, a 1.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, the second - lowest of the year, due to global economic slowdown and trade uncertainties [4][10]. Price - The main raw material purchase price index was 52.5%, a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and it has been in the expansion range for 4 consecutive months. The ex - factory price index was 47.5%, a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The gap between raw material prices and ex - factory prices widened to 5 percentage points, indicating continued pressure on the profits of mid - and downstream processing industries [4][10]. 10 - Month Non - Manufacturing Situation Services - The services PMI was 50.2%, remaining in the expansion range. Driven by holiday effects, industries related to travel and consumption had high business activity indices. The postal industry also saw accelerated growth due to promotional activities. The business activity expectation index was 56.1%, indicating strong confidence among service enterprises [5][11]. Construction - The construction PMI in October was 49.1%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, still below the boom - bust line. However, the business activity expectation index was 56.0%, a 3.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, showing continued improvement in the market development expectations of construction enterprises [6][12].

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In October, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.0%, down from 49.8% in September[1] - The non-manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 50.1, compared to the previous value of 50.0[1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI decline is attributed to intensified trade frictions, with both supply and demand indices showing significant drops[2] - The production index fell to 49.7% (-2.2 percentage points), while the new orders index decreased to 48.8% (-0.9 percentage points)[2] - New export orders index dropped to 45.9% (-1.9 percentage points), indicating weakened external demand[2] Group 3: Economic Stimulus and Construction Sector - A total of 500 billion yuan has been allocated to specific projects, contributing to an overall investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, including both new and old infrastructure and high-end manufacturing[2] - The construction sector's business activity expectation index rose to 56.0%, the highest since January, reflecting improved expectations due to policy support[3] Group 4: Price Indices and Industry Performance - The main raw material purchase price index was at 52.5% (-0.7 percentage points), while the factory price index was at 47.5% (-0.7 percentage points), both showing a decline for two consecutive months[2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.2% (-1.7 percentage points), and the consumer goods industry PMI at 50.1% (-0.5 percentage points), indicating a general downturn across major industries[2]