Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, meaning a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] Core Viewpoints - The short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited unless conflicts materialize, and the supply surplus remains the main factor restricting the upside space of oil prices [3] - Geopolitical risks will continue to support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and the high-sulfur cracking spread may remain strong, while the fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continue to be weak [4] - The impact of the Iranian situation on crude oil is significantly stronger than that on asphalt, and the upward driving force of asphalt is limited after the cost increase has been priced in [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - EIA's latest weekly data shows a surprising increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories [3] - Oil prices rebounded under the influence of concerns about the U.S. attack on Iran but then plunged after Trump's statement, and the short-term upside space is limited [3] - In Q1 2026, the global crude oil supply-demand structure shows significant inventory pressure, and the supply surplus restricts the upside space of oil prices [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight, fuel oil prices rose sharply due to the escalation of the Iranian situation, and the gains were partially reversed today [4] - Geopolitical risks continue to disrupt the market, and the export disruption of Iran and the slowdown of Russian shipments may tighten the Asian supply [4] - Geopolitical risk premiums are expected to support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and the high-sulfur cracking spread may remain strong, while the fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continue to be weak [4] Asphalt - The Iranian geopolitical situation has a stronger impact on crude oil than on asphalt, and the BU cracking spread has declined from its high [5] - Kpler data predicts that the arrivals in January will still be sufficient, and the upward driving force is limited after the cost increase has been priced in [5] - Attention should be paid to the arrivals of Venezuelan crude oil in the future [5]

1月15日，昨日周三我们认为，美国非农数据显示就业市场疲软，CPI数据显示通胀环境温和，加强了 市场对美联储年内降息2次的预期，以及地缘风险集中发酵，刺激黄金避险买盘，共同推动金价刷新历 史新高，短期技术面也显示黄金多方占据优势，有机会继续冲高，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注 4600和4570美元，上方压力关注4640美元的突破情况，若向上突破，上方空间可以关注4700美元。 从之后的走势看，周三欧盘盘中，黄金保持高位震荡，金价多次试探亚盘创造的历史高点4640美元遇 阻，美盘开盘后，黄金短线回落，跌至4600美元企稳，反弹4626美元遇阻后，再次回落试探4600美元企 稳，此后金价再度上涨，刷新历史新高至4642美元，遇阻后黄金震荡回落，周四开盘后延续下行，金价 两度试探4580美元企稳，目前交投于4605美元。总体来看，黄金再度冲高，符合我们的整体看涨预期。 1月15日，昨日周三我们认为，美国非农数据显示就业市场疲软，CPI数据显示通胀环境温和，加强了 市场对美联储年内降息2次的预期，以及地缘风险集中发酵，刺激黄金避险买盘，共同推动金价刷新历 史新高，短期技术面也显示黄金多方占据优势，有机会继续冲高， ...

昨日周三我们认为，美国非农数据显示就业市场疲软，CPI数据显示通胀环境温和，加强了市场对美联储年内 降息2次的预期，以及地缘风险集中发酵，刺激黄金避险买盘，共同推动金价刷新历史新高，短期技术面也显 示黄金多方占据优势，有机会继续冲高，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注4600和4570美元，上方压力关注 4640美元的突破情况，若向上突破，上方空间可以关注4700美元。 日线图上，黄金周三再创历史新高后，涨势虽然遇阻，但日内回落有限，走势保持高位震荡。黄金下方支撑， 可以关注日内低点附近4580美元，金价两度回落试探这里企稳，其次前历史高点位置4550美元；黄金上方压 力，可以关注周三创造的历史高点位置4642美元，金价多次试探4640美元附近遇阻，若向上突破，上方空间关 注4700美元整数位置。5日均线与MACD指标金叉向上，KDJ与RSI指标金叉下拐，短期技术面显示黄金多方占 优，不过连续冲高后存在调整需求。 黄金日内参考：市场对美联储降息的预期，以及地缘风险集中发酵刺激避险买盘，继续对黄金走势形成支撑。 操作上建议震荡思路对待，下方支撑关注4580美元，其次4550美元，上方压力关注4642美元，若向上突 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - With the escalation of the geopolitical situation in Iran, the energy sector has risen as a whole. The PG market has continued to fluctuate strongly, with a firm performance in the external market and continued increases in domestic spot prices. The previously weak ether - post carbon four has also been driven up by the crude oil end. Recently, the LPG market shows a pattern of "strong outside and weak inside", with a marginal tightening of overseas supply and an intensifying geopolitical situation. However, the price inversion between ether - post carbon four and civil gas exerts additional pressure on the PG market. In addition, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery has brought disturbances to the market. In the medium term, the global balance sheet still anticipates an oversupply, with limited internal drivers in the market. Potential upward risks come from the geopolitical level. If the conflict in the Middle East further escalates and Iran's LPG supply declines, it will lead to a significant tightening of domestic supplies, so continuous attention to the situation development is needed [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 14, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4430 - 4470 yuan; Northeast market, 3910 - 4150 yuan; North China market, 4200 - 4430 yuan; East China market, 4350 - 4550 yuan; Yangtze River market, 4750 - 5080 yuan; Northwest market, 4200 - 4400 yuan; South China market, 4990 - 5100 yuan [1]. - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 607 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 602 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4686 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and butane was 4647 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China, China was 599 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 594 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4624 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and butane was 4585 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, the market fluctuates strongly. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].

Group 1 - Paper gold is currently trading around 1030.09 CNY per gram, with a decline of 0.49%, reaching a high of 1040.58 CNY and a low of 1027.12 CNY during the session, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] - The latest paper gold price from ICBC is approximately 1035.58 CNY per gram, showing a strong upward trend and remaining above the upper Bollinger band, with a clear bullish trend on the daily chart [3] - Key support for paper gold is identified at 1025-1028 CNY per gram, while resistance has shifted to 1035-1040 CNY per gram, with a potential breakthrough aiming for the psychological level of 1050 CNY per gram [3] Group 2 - The investigation into the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation project has revealed a cost overrun of 2.5 billion USD, with Powell denying any wrongdoing and suggesting that this is an excuse to pressure for interest rate cuts [2] - Trump has expressed that he believes the president should have a voice in Federal Reserve policy, asserting confidence in his economic understanding compared to Powell [2]

金老虎：黄金冲顶4642后跳水！是狂欢反转，还是回调冷静？ 昨天，黄金市场绝对上演了一出惊心动魄的"大戏"。看着K线在午夜三点冲上4642美元的巅峰，那种心 跳加速的感觉，相信咱们做黄金的人都懂。仿佛所有人都在欢呼，新的时代来了！然而，市场永远不缺 意外。今天开盘后的回落，特别是从4632掉头向下的这一波，又让不少人心头一紧。 这上蹿下跳的行情，到底在搞什么名堂？是上车的机会，还是离场的信号？ 抛开那些冷冰冰的数据，咱们好好唠唠这背后的门道。 一、 昨天的疯狂：为什么能冲上4642？ 昨天那波从4589到4642的拉升，不是无缘无故的，是几股力量拧成了一股绳： 1：首先是凌晨美国CPI数据给了多头底气，12月核心CPI环比仅涨0.2%，低于预期的0.3%，虽然整体 通胀仍稳在2.7%，但核心指标降温让市场押注美联储降息节奏不会滞后，美元指数承压走软，以美元 计价的黄金自然获得支撑反弹； 来源：金老虎首席分析师 今天的下跌，说实话，我并不觉得意外。这就像是人跑得太快了，总要停下来喘口气。 1："落袋为安"的收割潮： 这是最直接的原因。4642是一个历史性的高位，对于很多在低位（比如 4000、4200）就埋伏进 ...

Oil Market - The latest EIA weekly data shows an unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, indicating significant inventory pressure and a supply surplus that limits the short-term upward potential of oil prices [1] - Oil prices initially rebounded to nearly $67 per barrel due to concerns over US-Iran tensions, but retreated after President Trump indicated a wait-and-see approach regarding the situation in Iran [1] - The global crude oil supply-demand structure for Q1 2026 suggests that unless conflicts escalate, the short-term upside for oil prices is expected to be limited [1] Precious Metals - The US reported a 3% increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for November, the highest since July, and retail sales rose by 0.6%, slightly above expectations, indicating a strong economic backdrop for precious metals [2] - The geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran continue to support the overall strength of precious metals [2] Copper Market - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on geopolitical risks and the impact of tariffs on trade [3] - The current spot premium for copper has narrowed to $44, indicating market adjustments as traders await inventory updates [3] Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is seeing high volatility, with prices testing historical highs but facing challenges from speculative trading and high inventory levels [4] - The profit margin for aluminum production remains above 8000 yuan per ton, prompting producers to consider hedging strategies [4] Zinc Market - The zinc market is witnessing increased capital inflow, leading to heightened bullish sentiment, although high prices are negatively impacting consumption [7] - Zinc prices have recovered all losses from 2025, but there is growing pressure for a price correction, with a focus on support levels around 23,000 yuan per ton [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing active trading, with upstream lithium salt producers shifting sales strategies towards more spot sales [11] - Total market inventory has increased by 300 tons to 110,000 tons, while downstream inventory has decreased, indicating a mixed supply-demand dynamic [11] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is facing weak supply and demand dynamics, with production cuts in northern regions and reduced demand from the organic silicon sector [12] - Current prices for industrial silicon are stable, but the market outlook remains cautious due to ongoing production adjustments [12] Steel Market - The steel market is showing slight price increases, but demand remains weak, particularly in the real estate sector, leading to cautious market sentiment [14] - Steel production is gradually recovering, but overall demand from downstream industries continues to decline [14] Iron Ore Market - The iron ore market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with increased domestic port inventories and a seasonal decline in demand [15] - The market sentiment is mixed, with structural imbalances persisting and expectations for continued price volatility [15] Fertilizer Market - The urea market is seeing strong price increases driven by improved factory orders and seasonal demand ahead of spring [23] - The methanol market is also showing strength due to geopolitical tensions, although signs of weakening demand are emerging [24] Agricultural Products - The soybean market is under pressure from high import volumes and increased domestic processing rates, with expectations for continued weak price movements [35] - The corn market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with low overall inventory levels and increased demand from downstream users as the Spring Festival approaches [39] Livestock Market - The live pig market is seeing upward price movements, with expectations for continued pressure on supply as the Spring Festival approaches [40] - The egg market is showing signs of strength due to reduced supply and increased demand ahead of the holiday season [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. Over the weekend, the unstable situation in Iran continued. Trump received a briefing on military strike options against Iran but hasn't made a final decision on authorizing a strike. Israel is on high alert for the possibility of U.S. intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that it will strike Israel and the U.S. if attacked. The Iranian president expressed willingness to meet with protest groups, showing a conciliatory tendency. If the U.S. launches a strike on Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high in the short - term [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From January 8th to 14th, 2026, WTI crude oil rose from $57.76 to $62.02, an increase of $0.87; BRENT crude oil rose from $61.99 to $66.52, an increase of $1.05; DUBAI crude oil rose from $60.08 to $62.58, an increase of $0.80. Other related products also showed corresponding price changes [3] - From January 8th to 14th, 2026, SC crude oil decreased by $0.10, OMAN crude oil increased by $0.19, and the domestic gasoline price increased by 40 yuan. Other related domestic products also had price changes [3] - From January 8th to 14th, 2026, the price of Japanese naphtha CFR was not fully updated, the Singapore fuel oil 380CST had incomplete data, the main contract of SHFE FU increased by 125, the main contract of SHFE BU increased by 28, HH natural gas increased by $0.110, and BFO increased by $1.75 [3] 3.2 Daily News - Flightradar24 reported that Iran issued a navigation notice, restricting flights from entering its airspace without permission, with an effective period of slightly over two hours [3] - Trump said that Iran's "killing" has stopped, hinting at a possible suspension of military action against Iran. International oil prices dropped by 4% in the short - term. Trump also said that he will observe the situation before making a decision on military action against Iran [4] 3.3 Inventory - According to the EIA report, in the week ending January 9th, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.81% increase [4] - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease compared to the same period last year; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 413.7 million barrels, a 0.05% increase [4][5] - In the week ending January 9th, U.S. commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 753,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week; EIA gasoline inventory was 8.977 million barrels (expected 3.565 million barrels, previous value 7.702 million barrels); EIA refined oil inventory was - 29,000 barrels (expected 512,000 barrels, previous value 5.594 million barrels) [5][6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-15 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 弱势运行 | 地缘风险弱化，原油震荡走弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：弱势运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛墨西哥或成为美国下一个夺取和 打击的目标。同时美国威胁或对伊朗展开新一轮军事打击，中东地缘风险再度加剧。随着昨日美国 总统特朗普释放可能暂缓打击伊朗的信 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a core logic of weakening geopolitical risks leading to a weak - oscillating trend [1] - The short - term and mid - term views of methanol are oscillating, while the intraday view is weak. The reference view is a weak operation. The weakening of geopolitical risks may cause domestic methanol futures to continue the weak trend on Thursday [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price Trend and View - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillating, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1] - The intraday view of methanol (MA) is weak, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is weak operation [5] Driving Logic - The strongest support for the recent upward movement of methanol prices is the "hard contraction" of overseas supply before the festival. Iran, as the main source of imports, is facing serious supply disruptions. At the same time, the inventory of methanol at domestic ports has decreased, driving the recovery of port spot prices and strengthening the basis. The firmness of the spot end has enhanced the confidence of long - positions in the futures market [5] - After the US President Trump signaled a possible suspension of strikes against Iran, geopolitical risks have weakened, and international crude oil futures prices have significantly corrected. Although domestic methanol futures maintained a relatively strong trend on Wednesday night, there is a lack of momentum for further upward movement [5]