乌克兰债券受和平进程拖累表现低迷 东欧邻国市场飙升 金十数据5月25日讯，由于特朗普促成和平协议的前景暗淡，乌克兰美元债券在2025年迄今给投资者带 来了超过10%的损失，为新兴和前沿市场中表现最差。而年初时由于对停火的押注，一些乌克兰债券价 格自去年8月重组以来几乎翻了一番，并提振了整个东欧市场。伦敦对冲基金Frontier Road转向企业债 券以规避地缘风险，美银虽维持超配建议但警告战事持续带来的"下行风险"，摩根士丹利预计冲突将延 续至2025年。"市场已回落至特朗普当选前水平，"安本投资董事Viktor Szabo指出。华沙、布拉格和布 达佩斯主要股指年内美元计价回报率均超30%，匈牙利福林、捷克克朗和波兰兹罗提领跑新兴市场货币 涨幅。但乌克兰2035年到期零息债券价格已从2月的70美分跌至50美分。 ...

国内到岸价整体回落，5月上半月集中到岸导致华东阵容率继续走高,码头降价出货。进口成本支撑松动盈加烧 厂外放有所增加,炼厂气价整体下调。上周PDH开工率随装置降负仍有回落,但月末有装置开始重启,关注化工 需求回升的节奏。现货端承压延续,盘面震荡偏弱为主。 | 《》 国技期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月23日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价走弱, SG07合约日内跌2.1%%。昨日有消息称OPEC+正在讨论6月1日是否继续以41.1万桶/天速度 快速增产,市场对原油供需宽松 ...

理性预期回归挤出情绪溢价，PX、PTA估值存回调修复压力 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 05月21日，PX 主力合约收6766.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.47%，基差 为-1.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4788.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.18%，基 差为112.0元/吨。 成本端，05月21日，布油主力合约收盘65.6美元/桶。WTI收62.25美元/ 桶。 市场继续关注俄乌、美伊局势，油价短期震荡格局对成本端支撑有限。涤 丝库存压力缓解，未来关注下游纱厂备货节奏。 1/8 二、产业链价格监测 | | 数据指标 | 2025-05-21 | 2025-05-20 | 変化 | 近日涨跌幅 | 走勢 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX期货 | 主力合约价格 | 6,766 | 6,668 | 98 | 1.47% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market features "weak reality, strong expectation." In the short - term, the price is under pressure, with WTI and Brent continuing weak oscillations. In the medium - term, the price center may gradually rise from a low level. In the long - term, the upward space is restricted. Overall, the oil price may maintain a pattern of "low - level oscillation with a slowly rising center," and the fluctuation range may break through if the Iran - US nuclear negotiation fails or geopolitical conflicts escalate [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Data Change Analysis - SC crude oil rose slightly to 470.1 yuan/barrel on May 21, up 1.01% from the previous day, indicating a marginal improvement in the market's demand expectation for the Asian region. WTI and Brent continued to decline, with WTI closing at $61.34/barrel (down 1.46%) and Brent at $64.58/barrel (down 1.55%), affected by inventory pressure and demand concerns in the European and American markets. - The SC - Brent spread strengthened significantly, rising from -$1.15/barrel to $0.65/barrel. The spread of SC near - month contracts (continuous - continuous 3) changed from backwardation to flat price (-0.9→0.0 yuan/barrel), indicating a short - term alleviation of supply - demand contradictions [3] 3.1.2 Supply, Demand and Inventory Dynamics - **Supply side**: OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, but the increase may be weaker than expected. The supply increase has uncertainties due to Iraq's reservation on the energy agreement in the Kurdish region. EIA data shows that the US crude oil imports dropped to 110,000 barrels (previous value: 422,000 barrels), and the commissioned crude oil volume decreased to 89,000 barrels/day (previous value: 330,000 barrels/day), indicating a short - term supply contraction [4] - **Demand side**: The implied demand for US crude oil production rose to 19.291 million barrels/day (previous value: 18.735 million barrels/day), but the distillate fuel oil demand fell to 4.7703 million barrels/day (previous value: 5.2107 million barrels/day). The gasoline inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels, showing a structural differentiation in demand. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory increased by 843,000 barrels (previous value: 528,000 barrels), which may imply the government's concern about the medium - and long - term supply [4] - **Inventory**: The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.328 million barrels unexpectedly (expected: -1.277 million barrels). High inventories in Cushing and globally suppress the upward space of oil prices [4] 3.1.3 Industry Chain and Price Trend Judgment - The current crude oil market shows the characteristics of "weak reality, strong expectation." In the short - term, the rising US commercial inventory, the decline in distillate fuel oil demand and the OPEC+ production increase expectation suppress the near - end price, and WTI and Brent continue weak oscillations. In the medium - term, the strengthening of SC crude oil and the repair of the near - month spread reflect the increasing restocking demand of Asian refineries. Coupled with the weakening expectation of the US economic recession and geopolitical risks, the oil price center may gradually rise from a low level. In the long - term, the accelerating energy transition and the slowing demand growth rate limit the upward space, and the pattern of oversupply has not reversed [5] 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures prices**: SC rose, WTI and Brent fell. The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI strengthened, while the Brent - WTI spread narrowed slightly. The spread of SC continuous - continuous 3 changed from backwardation to flat price [6] - **Spot prices**: Most spot prices showed an upward trend, with different increases [6] - **Inventory**: The US commercial crude oil inventory increased, the Cushing inventory decreased, and the US Strategic Reserve inventory increased [6] - **开工**: The US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased slightly [6] 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures prices**: FU and LU rose slightly, while NYMEX fuel oil fell slightly [7] - **Spot prices**: Most spot prices showed an upward trend, with different increases. The spreads between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuels in Singapore and China narrowed [7] - **Inventory**: The Singapore inventory decreased, while the US distillate inventories showed different changes [7] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - The US EIA crude oil imports and commissioned crude oil volume decreased in the week ending May 16. Iraq's oil minister has reservations about the energy agreement in the Kurdish region. Turkey's shale oil reserves are estimated to be 6.1 billion barrels. OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, but the increase may be weaker [8][9] 3.3.2 Demand - The implied demand for US crude oil production increased, while the distillate fuel oil demand decreased. The渣油 market is under pressure [10] 3.3.3 Inventory - The US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased, the new - formula gasoline inventory decreased, the heating oil inventory decreased, and the crude oil inventory increased unexpectedly [11] 3.3.4 Market Information - The prices of Shanghai gold and silver futures rose, and the SC crude oil futures price showed different trends. The EU is discussing the oil price cap on Russia, and South Africa plans to increase fuel taxes. The shipping and wholesale markets of fuel oil are not operating well [12] 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil, US and OPEC crude oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventories, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, etc. [13][15][17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly. Shanghai rubber 2509 and synthetic rubber 2507 are likely to maintain a slightly stronger and oscillating trend on Thursday, May 22, 2025 [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall view: running strongly [1]. - **Core Logic**: Macro factors have improved, boosting the confidence of rubber market bulls. However, new rubber supply is gradually increasing as the new rubber tapping season begins in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas. Meanwhile, the procurement demand is expected to increase as the operating rate of the downstream tire industry returns to normal. Against the backdrop of improved supply - demand structure, Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend. On the night of Wednesday, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures slightly rose 0.61% to 14,945 yuan/ton [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall view: running strongly [1]. - **Core Logic**: Although Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and macro factors have turned optimistic, the US debt crisis in June is approaching, which may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating production, and the crude oil demand is expected to be weak. However, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has become chaotic again, increasing geopolitical risks. With the recovery of crude oil premium, the 2507 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly rose 0.62% to 12,145 yuan/ton on the night of Wednesday. It may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend on Thursday [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have led to an increase in oil prices at the cost - end, providing short - term support for PX and PTA. PX and PTA are in the maintenance season, with a significant reduction in supply. The resonance of cost and supply - demand factors drives the market to run strongly. However, attention should be paid to terminal orders, production and sales, and transaction situations. The short - term volatile pattern of oil prices has limited support for the cost - end of polyester. The inventory pressure of polyester yarn has been relieved, and future attention should be paid to the stocking rhythm of downstream yarn mills [2][4][5] - The future price of PX may fluctuate or rebound slightly due to the large basis and possible cost impact of oil prices. PTA may face the dual pressure of weakening cost support and insufficient demand, and its price may continue to decline [34] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On May 20, the PX main contract closed at 6,668.0 yuan/ton, down 1.24% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 204.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,732.0 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 268.0 yuan/ton. The closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 65.48 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 62.15 US dollars/barrel. The total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 748.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction volume was 987.53 million meters [3] - Regarding supply, many PX and PTA plants have maintenance plans or have been restarted. The domestic PX plant operating rate is 73%, and the Asian operating rate is 67.9%. The PTA operating rate is around 75.6%, and the polyester operating rate is around 94.2%. Geopolitical risks may cause a rapid increase in crude oil prices [4] Polyester - On May 20, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,506.0 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,585.0 yuan/ton, down 50.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 79.0 yuan/ton. The 15 - day average trading volume of the Light Textile City showed a slight downward trend. The inventory of polyester yarn decreased, and the inventory pressure was not large [5] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The prices of PX, PTA, and short - fiber futures and spot, as well as their trading volume, open interest, basis, and price differences, are presented in detail in the report. The prices of some products such as Brent crude oil, US crude oil, and ethylene glycol remained unchanged on May 20 compared with the previous day. The prices of some polyester products such as polyester bottle chips decreased [6] - The processing spreads of some products such as PTA decreased slightly, and the trading volume of the Light Textile City decreased. The inventory days of polyester yarn decreased [7] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macro Dynamics - On May 20, Atlanta Fed President Bostic reiterated his preference for only one interest rate cut this year; New York Fed President Williams said the recent economic data was very good but the economy was full of uncertainties; Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson treated Moody's downgrade of the US rating as general data for policy - making; Dallas Fed President Logan said the Fed should consider strengthening mechanisms to prevent money - market rate spikes more effectively when the market is under pressure [8] - On May 19, the US one - year inflation expectation in May reached the highest level since 1981; consumer confidence slightly declined to the second - lowest in history but ended four consecutive months of sharp decline. Fed Bostic expected one interest rate cut this year and that the US would not fall into a recession. It was reported that the Fed planned to lay off 10% of its staff in the next few years [8] Supply - Demand (Demand) - On May 20, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 748.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 8.56%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 588.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 160.0 million meters. On November 6, the 15 - day average production and sales rate of polyester factories was 53.56% [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts such as PX and PTA futures and basis, spot prices, capacity utilization rates, and processing profits, as well as charts related to short - fiber futures and basis, and industrial chain load rates [10][12][14]

Report Summary of Crude Oil 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The domestic crude oil futures contract 2507 is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend on Wednesday, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of upward movement [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information - **Price and Movement** - On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract slightly rose 0.69% to 467.8 yuan/barrel [5]. - News that Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities caused international oil prices to jump 3% on Wednesday morning [5]. - **Driving Factors** - Positive factors: The "gray rhino" effect of the approaching US debt crisis in June may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, and the expected demand for crude oil is weak. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased again due to the decreasing expectation of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and the news of Israel's potential attack on Iranian nuclear facilities [5]. - Negative factors: Although Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and the macro - factors have turned optimistic [5].

俄罗斯准备和乌克兰谈判，地缘风险并未消退，黄金多头能否进场？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分析 相关链接 ...

期货热点追踪 美联储政策迷雾叠加地缘风险缓和，黄金白银方向选择或进入倒计时？ 相关链接 ...

GMA直播聚焦美伊核协议谈判，地缘风险延续，黄金关键转换位在哪？点击观看GMA指标直播分析 相关链接 ...