Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented strength, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increasing geopolitical risks [1][3] - On September 26, silver prices surpassed $46 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high, with a six-month increase of over 30% [1][3] - Platinum prices surged by 11.5% in one week, breaking through $1500 per ounce, marking a 12-year high [1][3] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver's recent price surge is attributed to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, benefiting from economic conditions such as rising inflation and loose liquidity [4][5] - The average price of silver is projected to be $28.27 per ounce in 2024, up from $23.35 in 2023 [4] - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 82 domestically and 85 internationally, indicating that silver is still undervalued and has significant price recovery potential [5] Group 3: Platinum and Gold Performance - Platinum prices have increased significantly, with a year-to-date rise of over 73%, driven by demand in automotive catalysts and electric vehicle batteries [7] - Gold remains strong near historical highs, with a current price of $3783 per ounce, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [7][8] - In September, global gold ETF inflows reached a record $10.5 billion, with total inflows exceeding $50 billion year-to-date [7] Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that while silver has strong upward momentum, caution is advised due to potential price volatility at high levels [10][11] - The macroeconomic environment, including expectations of continued monetary easing and geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to support silver prices [10][11] - Central bank gold purchases are anticipated to remain a long-term strategic behavior, aimed at optimizing foreign exchange reserves and hedging against global uncertainties [8]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented strength due to factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increasing geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Silver Market Performance - On September 26, silver prices surpassed $46 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high, with a six-month increase of over 30% and a year-to-date rise of 59%, outperforming most commodities [2][3] - The average silver price for 2024 is projected at $28.27 per ounce, compared to $23.35 per ounce in 2023 [4] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, benefiting from economic conditions such as rising inflation and liquidity [4][5] Group 2: Platinum and Gold Market Trends - Platinum prices also surged, with a 2.5% increase on September 27, reaching $1584 per ounce, marking an 11.5% weekly rise [7] - Gold remains strong near historical highs, with a current price of $3783 per ounce, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [8] - In September, global gold ETF inflows reached a record $10.5 billion, with total inflows exceeding $50 billion year-to-date [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 82 domestically and 85 internationally, significantly higher than historical averages, indicating potential for silver price recovery [5] - Analysts suggest that while silver has strong upward momentum, caution is advised due to potential price volatility and the impact of changing economic conditions [9][10] - The outlook for gold remains optimistic due to ongoing central bank purchases and a trend towards de-dollarization, with expectations of a gradual price increase [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Affected by the divergence in Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and changes in gold ETF holdings, the medium - to long - term outlook for gold is supported by the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and declining real interest rates [3]. - **Copper**: The impact of the Freeport copper mine incident exceeded expectations, causing short - term over - appreciation of copper prices [19]. - **Aluminum**: After the September interest rate cut, the macro - driving force subsided. The trading of Shanghai aluminum may focus on fundamentals, and short - term prices may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is in a surplus state, and the demand side shows no signs of a peak season. In the short term, zinc prices will likely move in a range, and the current trading strategy is mainly based on the long - domestic and short - overseas logic [67]. - **Nickel**: Concerns about the stability of nickel ore supply have increased, and prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to rise. Nickel iron prices are restricted by stainless steel demand, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [82]. - **Tin**: With the Fed's interest rate decision settled, the macro impact on tin prices has diminished. In the short term, due to tight supply and weak demand, tin prices are likely to move in a range [97]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As the National Day approaches, the market's expectation of a shutdown on September 30 has decreased significantly. Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [108]. - **Silicon**: Before the National Day, the willingness to stock up has declined. The industrial silicon market will continue the pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality." Polysilicon prices fluctuate sharply, and investors are advised to be cautious [117]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influence Factors**: Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and changes in gold ETF holdings affect gold prices. The upward revision of the US Q2 GDP restrains short - term interest rate cut expectations, while geopolitical risks and increased domestic gold ETF holdings provide support [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates [4][9]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The impact of the Freeport copper mine incident was longer than expected, leading to short - term over - appreciation of copper prices [19]. - **Price Data**: Spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper decreased by 0.02%, while Guangdong Southern Storage increased by 0.22%. In the futures market, the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.29% [22][23]. - **Inventory and Import Data**: Copper inventories in various regions changed, and copper imports showed a significant increase in losses [34][28]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and peak - season fundamentals. After the September interest rate cut, the focus shifted to fundamentals, and short - term prices may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [37]. - **Alumina**: The contradiction in bauxite lies in the tight domestic supply and low shipments from Guinea, while the inventory is at a high level. Alumina supply is in surplus, and short - term prices are likely to be weak [38]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: After the macro - driving force subsided, the market focused on fundamentals. With mixed long and short factors, short - term prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [39]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Provided prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, as well as various spreads and basis data [40][44][52]. - **Inventory Data**: Aluminum and alumina inventories in different regions changed, and the impact on prices needs to be monitored [61]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: The supply side is in a surplus state, and the demand side shows no signs of a peak season. LME inventories are decreasing, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Short - term prices are likely to move in a range [67]. - **Price Data**: Zinc futures and spot prices showed different changes, and various spreads and basis data were provided [68][73]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc inventories changed, and the impact on prices needs to be observed [78]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Concerns about the stability of nickel ore supply have increased, and prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to rise. Nickel iron prices are restricted by stainless steel demand, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [82]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided prices of nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel, as well as inventory data [83]. Tin - **Market Situation**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, the macro impact on tin prices has diminished. In the short term, due to tight supply and weak demand, tin prices are likely to move in a range [97]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided tin futures and spot prices, as well as inventory data [98][104]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: As the National Day approaches, the market's expectation of a shutdown on September 30 has decreased significantly. Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [108]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, as well as inventory data [109][111][115]. Silicon - **Market Situation**: Before the National Day, the willingness to stock up has declined. The industrial silicon market will continue the pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality." Polysilicon prices fluctuate sharply, and investors are advised to be cautious [117]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided prices of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and other products, as well as inventory data [118][119][146].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower. With the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term positive factors are exhausted. The rubber market has shifted to a weak supply - demand structure, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the future [6]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower. Suppressed by the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the future [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, strengthening in oscillation, and slightly rising. Due to the continuous attacks on Russian oil production facilities by Ukraine and the US President's statement on imposing strong tariff sanctions on Russia, the geopolitical risks have increased. It is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the future [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 461,200 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons or 0.76% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 5.07%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.04%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.40 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.30 percentage points [10]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The China Logistics Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. In August 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. The cumulative sales in the first 8 months of 2025 reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [11]. Methanol - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.8132 million tons, a significant week - on - week decrease of 106,100 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 84,200 tons, and a slight decrease of 30,200 tons compared with the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.33 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.58 percentage points. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures profit was - 183 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 62,500 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 395,600 tons, and a significant increase of 487,200 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory was 340,500 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 94,200 tons compared with the same period last year [13][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 418, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 70 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [15]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 415 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a significant decrease of 2.152 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [15]. - As of September 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 98,709 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 16,865 contracts and a significant decrease of 23,354 contracts or 19.13% compared with the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 220,410 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 14,635 contracts and a 8.94% increase compared with the August average. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market increased significantly [16]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,470 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | - 770 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,270 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,355 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | - 85 yuan/ton | +1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 454.6 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 491.3 yuan/barrel | +0.7 yuan/barrel | - 36.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.7 yuan/barrel | [18] 3. Related Charts - Rubber - related charts include rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [19][21][27] - Methanol - related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [35][37][42] - Crude oil - related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [49][51][57]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of crude oil futures is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile, and an intraday bias towards a volatile and strong trend [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2511 is volatile [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2511 is volatile [1]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2511 is volatile and strong, and it is expected to run strongly [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - Geopolitical factors support the price of crude oil. Recently, Ukraine has continuously attacked Russian oil production facilities, Russia has stated that it may extend the ban on refined oil exports if necessary, and Trump has said that the US will impose strong tariff sanctions on Russia. These actions by Western countries and Ukraine aim to strike at Russia's oil exports, enhancing geopolitical risks and causing a phased rebound in crude oil futures prices [5]. 3.3 Price Performance - On Thursday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a volatile and strong trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract slightly rose 0.45% to 491.1 yuan per barrel, and it is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price on Friday will maintain a volatile and strong trend [5].

安如泰山 信守承诺 具体来看，本周油市的偏强表现受到俄乌局势、伊朗核谈、委内瑞拉出口限制多方因素的共振推动，那么 这些因素的利多影响是否可持续? 十一前后油市地缘风险升温,核心聚焦俄乌演绎 能源评论 本周地缘风险的升温再次引领原油系品种上行，从相对强弱来看，近两个交易日布伦特涨3.8%、WTI涨 4%，截至周四上午收盘内盘SC涨3.6%、FU涨4.6%、LU涨2.7%、BU涨1.9%，即对外部地缘犹动更为敏感的 原油、燃料油期货涨幅居前。 在8月15日美俄元首的阿拉斯加会谈未取得明确成果后，近期特朗普言论再次倒向支持乌克兰，不仅反复要 求欧盟国家停止购买俄罗斯所有能源产品，还称乌方可能"赢回全部乌克兰，恢复原状" Polvmarket对年内 小ツ 血档/水江 郑大邱 今 竹 吊 称 ￣q ， 梁 今 Ｊ 昭 厕 王 จ 为 一 ， 权 报 不 ， ヤ ym Kr 铁 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中持续对俄罗斯施压，8月俄罗斯炼厂遇袭受影响的产能在120万桶/天左右，在俄罗斯占比17％，9月以来全国 炼厂加工量494万桶/天，较8月水平进一步下降15万桶/天，目最新周度数据显示开工率仍在环比 ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 十一前后油市地缘风险升温,核心聚焦俄乌演绎 能源评论 本周地缘风险的升温再次引领原油系品种上行，从相对强弱来看，近两个交易日布伦特涨3.8%、WTI涨 4%，截至周四上午收盘内盘SC涨3.6%、FU涨4.6%、LU涨2.7%、BU涨1.9%，即对外部地缘犹动更为敏感的 原油、燃料油期货涨幅居前。 具体来看，本周油市的偏强表现受到俄乌局势、伊朗核谈、委内瑞拉出口限制多方因素的共振推动，那么 这些因素的利多影响是否可持续? 在8月15日美俄元首的阿拉斯加会谈未取得明确成果后，近期特朗普言论再次倒向支持乌克兰，不仅反复要 求欧盟国家停止购买俄罗斯所有能源产品，还称乌方可能"赢回全部乌克兰，恢复原状" Polvmarket对年内 小ツ 血档/水江 郑大邱 今 竹 吊 称 ￣q ， 梁 今 Ｊ 昭 厕 王 จ 为 一 ， 权 报 不 ， ヤ ym Kr 铁 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中持续对俄罗斯施压，8月俄罗斯炼厂遇袭受影响的产能在120万桶/天左右，在俄罗斯占比17％，9月以来全国 炼厂加工量494万桶/天，较8月水平进一步下降15万桶/天，目最新周度数据显示开工率仍在环比 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. federal debt reached the statutory limit of $31.4 trillion on January 19, 2023, triggering a debt ceiling crisis that required urgent action from Congress [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary warned that failure to raise the debt ceiling could lead to delayed payments for social security and military salaries, highlighting the urgency of the situation [2] - The Fiscal Responsibility Act was passed on June 3, 2023, suspending the debt ceiling until January 1, 2025, effectively increasing the borrowing capacity by several trillion dollars [2] Group 2 - The U.S. has been facing repeated debt ceiling crises due to excessive spending, including pandemic stimulus plans and military expenditures, which have significantly increased the national debt [2] - Credit rating agencies, such as Moody's and S&P, have downgraded the U.S. credit outlook, reflecting concerns about the country's fiscal health and its impact on international confidence [3] Group 3 - China is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, with holdings around $800 billion in early 2023, accounting for over 10% of total foreign ownership [4] - During the 2023 debt crisis, the U.S. sought to encourage China to increase its purchases of U.S. debt to stabilize the market, as a reduction in Chinese holdings could lead to increased volatility in bond yields [4] Group 4 - Contrary to U.S. expectations, China began to reduce its holdings of U.S. debt, decreasing from $800 billion to $770 billion in the first half of 2023, and further down to $750 billion by the end of the year [6] - By March 2024, China had sold a total of $400 billion in U.S. debt, indicating a strategic shift towards diversifying its reserves amid geopolitical tensions and reduced trade surpluses [6] Group 5 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary publicly emphasized the importance of the U.S. debt market for global stability, urging China not to withdraw its investments [7] - Despite the U.S. government's concerns, China's response has been to maintain a market-driven approach to its foreign reserves, leading to a gradual reduction in U.S. debt holdings [7] Group 6 - The U.S. military has increased its presence in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, coinciding with the debt ceiling crisis, indicating a dual strategy of economic stability and military pressure [9][10] - The frequency of U.S. military aircraft operations in the Taiwan Strait has increased, reflecting ongoing tensions and the U.S. commitment to monitoring Chinese military activities [10] Group 7 - The U.S. faces a challenging situation where rising debt interest payments are projected to exceed 3% of GDP by 2025, while military spending continues to escalate, exceeding $900 billion in the fiscal year 2025 [14] - Analysts suggest that if China continues to sell off U.S. debt, bond yields could rise above 5%, complicating the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rate cuts [14] Group 8 - The ongoing military pressure from the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region is seen as a way to balance China's influence while simultaneously seeking to stabilize the U.S. debt market [12][15] - The dual approach of seeking Chinese investment in U.S. debt while increasing military presence in sensitive regions reflects the complexities of U.S. foreign policy amid economic challenges [15]

化工日报 | 2025-09-25 地缘升温，PTA跟随成本减仓反弹 市场要闻与数据 1、隔夜原油反弹较明显，亚盘时间偏强震荡。乌克兰对两处俄罗斯石油配送设施发动袭击，特朗普对俄罗斯态度 变强硬，威胁若不愿达成停火协议，将准备大幅加征关税，地缘风险升温，隔夜原油在关键支撑位附近短暂调整 后再度反弹。 2、终端订单有所好转，节前备货及原料价格反弹下长丝产销好转，江浙涤丝昨日产销部分放量，至下午3点半附 近平均产销估算在7-8成 市场分析 成本端，近期油价震荡运行，关注俄乌动态。隔夜原油反弹较明显，亚盘时间偏强震荡。乌克兰对两处俄罗斯石 油配送设施发动袭击，特朗普对俄罗斯态度变强硬，威胁若不愿达成停火协议，将准备大幅加征关税，地缘风险 升温，隔夜原油在关键支撑位附近短暂调整后再度反弹。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN206美元/吨(环比变动-6.88美元/吨）。近期PX四季度供需面转弱，PXN走弱。中国PX 负荷陆续恢复至偏高负荷运行，同时短期内海外开工将进一步走高。由于综合生产效益较好，国内部分PX装置四 季度检修推迟至明年，以及个别装置四季度扩能，PX供应较预期继续增加。而下游PTA工厂在效益大幅压缩后， 新装 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The economic situation in the third quarter is complex, with a slowdown in economic growth, policy counter - cyclical adjustments, and structural interactions between the financial market and the macro - fundamentals. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed may restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and future policies will depend on employment and inflation data [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 - 7.15 against the US dollar this week. Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy at the 7.10 mark [4]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile. It is advisable to buy long positions at intervals and control positions [7]. - The shipping index (European line) futures may fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, and low - buying opportunities can be considered [9]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and may be adjusted in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips and hold light positions during the National Day holiday [12]. - The supply - side shortage has significantly pushed up the copper price. It is recommended to hold cash and wait and see [14]. - The aluminum price may fluctuate strongly after a short - term correction. The alumina price may be weak in the short term, and the cast - aluminum alloy price may fluctuate strongly [15][16][17]. - The zinc price is expected to move downward slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [19]. - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are expected to fluctuate narrowly [19]. - The tin price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [22]. - The lithium - carbonate futures price is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday [23]. - It is recommended that investors be cautious when participating in the industrial - silicon and poly - silicon markets during the National Day holiday [25]. - The lead price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [27]. - The steel price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the downward resistance is smaller than the upward resistance [28]. - The iron - ore price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday [31]. - It is not recommended to short coal and coke in the black - commodity market. Arbitrage can focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coal and coke [33]. - It is recommended to try to go long on the silicon - iron 11 - contract at 5550 and the silicon - manganese 01 - contract at 5800 [35]. - The crude - oil price is expected to continue the pattern of weak rebound and then decline. The core contradiction lies in the game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risk support [39]. - The LPG price is expected to fluctuate weakly [41]. - The PTA - PX price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to try to go long cautiously or expand the TA - SC spread [44]. - The MEG - bottle - chip price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [47]. - It is recommended to reduce long positions in methanol and continue to hold short - put options [49]. - The PP price has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to device changes and opportunities to go long on dips [52]. - The PE price is expected to continue to fluctuate [55]. - The pure - benzene price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to expand the pure - benzene - styrene spread on dips [57][59]. - The low - sulfur fuel - oil price has few short - term contradictions and will follow cost fluctuations [60]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It may have the last chance to rise this year [62]. - The rubber price is expected to be bullish in the short term and neutral in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to go long on RU2601 and pay attention to the spread [66][67]. - The soda - ash price is expected to be volatile, with a long - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [69]. - The glass price is expected to be volatile, with a short - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [71]. - The caustic - soda price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the spot rhythm and downstream inventory - building enthusiasm [73]. - The pulp price is expected to stop falling. It is recommended to go long on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options on the far - month contract [74]. - The log price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and a covered - put strategy [75][77]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Pay attention to US economic data. The Fed may restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and future policies will depend on employment and inflation data [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 - 7.15 against the US dollar this week. It is recommended that export enterprises lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy at the 7.10 mark [4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6]. - **Bond**: The bond market is expected to be volatile. It is advisable to buy long positions at intervals and control positions [7]. - **Shipping Index (European Line) Futures**: The shipping index (European line) futures may fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, and low - buying opportunities can be considered [9]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and may be adjusted in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips and hold light positions during the National Day holiday. London gold should pay attention to the support around 3700 and the resistance at 3800; London silver has resistance in the 44.5 - 45 area and support at 43.5 and 43 [12]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The supply - side shortage has significantly pushed up the copper price. It is recommended to hold cash and wait and see [14]. - **Aluminum & Alumina & Cast - Aluminum Alloy**: The aluminum price may fluctuate strongly after a short - term correction. The alumina price may be weak in the short term, and the cast - aluminum alloy price may fluctuate strongly [15][16][17]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is expected to move downward slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [19]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel and stainless - steel markets are expected to fluctuate narrowly [19]. - **Tin**: The tin price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [22]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [27]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude - oil price is expected to continue the pattern of weak rebound and then decline. The core contradiction lies in the game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risk support [39]. - **LPG**: The LPG price is expected to fluctuate weakly [41]. - **PTA - PX**: The PTA - PX price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to try to go long cautiously or expand the TA - SC spread [44]. - **MEG - Bottle - Chip**: The MEG - bottle - chip price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [47]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to reduce long positions in methanol and continue to hold short - put options [49]. - **PP**: The PP price has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to device changes and opportunities to go long on dips [52]. - **PE**: The PE price is expected to continue to fluctuate [55]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The pure - benzene price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to expand the pure - benzene - styrene spread on dips [57][59]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel - oil price has few short - term contradictions and will follow cost fluctuations [60]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It may have the last chance to rise this year [62]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The rubber price is expected to be bullish in the short term and neutral in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to go long on RU2601 and pay attention to the spread [66][67]. Building Materials - **Soda - Ash**: The soda - ash price is expected to be volatile, with a long - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [69]. - **Glass**: The glass price is expected to be volatile, with a short - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [71]. - **Caustic - Soda**: The caustic - soda price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the spot rhythm and downstream inventory - building enthusiasm [73]. Others - **Pulp**: The pulp price is expected to stop falling. It is recommended to go long on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options on the far - month contract [74]. - **Log**: The log price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and a covered - put strategy [75][77].