陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 2025 年 6 月 13 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 原油、燃料油期货将震荡偏强 黄金 期货将偏强震荡 纯碱期货再创上市以来新低 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2506 阻力位 3895 和 3905 点，支撑位 3850 和 3841 点；IH2506 阻力位 2689 和 2699 点，支撑位 2664 和 2660 点；IC2506 阻力位 5801 和 5817 点，支撑位 5729 和 5700 点；IM2506 阻力位 6200 和 ...

Group 1 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. reached 248,000 for the week ending June 7, marking the highest level since October 5, 2024, and exceeding the expected 240,000 [2] - Continuing jobless claims have risen to the highest level since the end of 2021, indicating that it is taking longer for unemployed individuals to find new jobs, which suggests a cooling labor market [2] - Following the release of these data, the U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest level in over three years, while spot gold prices surged to $3,390 per ounce [2] Group 2 - In May, non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000, lower than the 193,000 added in the same month last year, indicating a gradual loss of momentum in the labor market [4] - The May Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%, while the year-on-year PPI was recorded at 2.6%, matching expectations [5] - Core PPI for May also showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, below the expected 0.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 3%, slightly below the expected 3.1% [5] Group 3 - Analysts are particularly focused on the PPI report as it includes components used to calculate the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure (PCE data) [6] - Areas of weakness in May included declines in airfare prices, investment management fees, and moderate healthcare costs [6]

北京时间6月12日晚间， 美元指数周四一路走低跌近1%，为三年来最低水平。整体来看，美元正面临多重压力叠加：经济数据疲软、地缘局势紧张以及 技术面破位，市场对其短期反弹空间持谨慎态度。而避险货币的强势表现，进一步凸显出全球投资者对前景不确定性的担忧。 | 全球商品 中国商品 原油 | | 黄金白银 | | --- | --- | --- | | 贵金属 已 | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 COMEX黄金 | | | 3391.020 36.352 | | 3411.7 | | +36.120 +1.08% +0.132 +0.36% | | +68.0 +2.03% | | COMEX日银 SHFE黄金 | | SHFE自银 | | 36.460 787.44 | | 8832 | | +0.199 +0.55% +6.48 +0.83% | | -2 -0.02% | | 能源化工 c | | | | NYMEX WTI原 | ICE布油 ICE轻质低硫原 | | | 67.18 68.83 | | 64.81 | | -0.97 -1.42% -0.94 -1.35% -0.91 -1.38% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The May PPI data in the U.S. showed a mild impact from costs of goods and services, with core PPI figures falling short of expectations, indicating potential price pressures in the second half of the year due to high tariffs and corporate profit margin concerns [1] Group 1: PPI Data Insights - The May PPI data revealed an expansion in profit margins for wholesalers and retailers, particularly in the automotive and machinery sectors, following a decline in April [1] - Year-to-date profit margins have shown fluctuations, highlighting the uncertainty of trade policies on prices and demand [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Analysts are closely monitoring the PPI report as certain components are used to calculate the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE data [1] - Areas of weakness in May included declines in airfare prices, investment management fees, and moderate healthcare costs [1] - The PCE report is expected to be released later this month, which will provide further insights into inflation trends [1]

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. increased by 2.6% year-on-year in May, aligning with expectations, while the previous value was a 2.4% increase [1] - The core PPI rose by 3% year-on-year in May, which was below the expected 3.1%, and the previous value was also 3.1% [1] - The data indicates that producer price inflation remains moderate due to suppressed costs of goods and services [1] Industry Implications - Economists believe that price pressures will intensify in the second half of the year as companies seek to protect profit margins amid rising costs [1] - The PPI data shows an increase in profit margins for wholesalers and retailers in May, particularly in the automotive and machinery wholesale sectors, following a decline in April [1] - Profit margins have fluctuated monthly this year, highlighting the uncertainty of trade policies on prices and demand [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock index futures are generally flat, with S&P futures turning positive while Nasdaq futures decline by 0.1% [1] - President Trump announced plans to send trade letters to various countries within 1-2 weeks [1] - There is a willingness to extend the trade deadline, but it is deemed unnecessary [1] - A unilateral tariff rate will be established within two weeks [1]

Group 1 - The CPI data is significantly better than market expectations, with both overall and core inflation unexpectedly declining [1] - Core commodity prices are weaker than anticipated, particularly in clothing, while core services also show weakness, with notable declines in rent and owner's equivalent rent [1] - This situation is likely to lead to a cautious steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve as investors begin to factor in more rate cut expectations [1] Group 2 - Trade policies are expected to continue pushing inflation higher, creating significant uncertainty for investors in the coming months [1] - The fixed income market is currently experiencing a brief respite due to the favorable CPI data [1]

Group 1 - Investors are shifting focus from headline-driven tariff risks to macroeconomic data [1] - There is anticipation for concrete evidence that recent trade policies may impact inflation [1]

Market Performance - The US stock market continues its strong upward trend, with all three major indices reaching new highs [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 443.13 points, an increase of 1.05%, closing at 42,762.87 points [3] - The Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 1.20%, closing at 19,529.95 points, while the S&P 500 Index rose by 1.03%, closing above the key 6,000-point mark at 6,000.36 points [3] - For the week, the S&P 500 Index gained 1.5%, the Dow Jones Index rose by 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Index saw a 2.2% increase [3] Employment Data - The employment report for May exceeded market expectations, with 139,000 new jobs added, surpassing the forecast of 125,000 [4] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, alleviating concerns about economic slowdown amid trade policy uncertainties [4] Trade Negotiations - The progress of US-China trade negotiations is a focal point for the market, with investors cautiously optimistic about reaching a trade agreement [4] - Technology stocks performed well, with Apple shares rising by 1.6% and Tesla shares rebounding by 3.8% [4] Technology Stocks - Other major tech stocks also showed strong performance, with Google up by 3.2%, Amazon by 2.7%, Meta by 1.9%, Nvidia by 1.2%, and Microsoft by 0.6%, continuing to set closing historical highs [5] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight decline of 0.1%, indicating relatively stable performance for Chinese concept stocks [5] Commodity Market - In the international commodity market, oil prices rebounded due to ongoing wildfires in Alberta, Canada, affecting energy prices [5] - WTI crude oil for the nearest month rose by 1.91%, closing at $64.58 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 1.13%, closing at $66.47 per barrel [5] Gold Prices - International gold prices faced downward pressure, with three-month gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange dropping by 1.3% to $3,330.70 per ounce [6] - A stronger US dollar has exerted pressure on precious metal prices [6]

Group 1 - The core event indicates that the May CPI may see a rebound due to tariff impacts [2] - Tariffs are identified as the main reason for the inflation rebound, with the Federal Reserve adopting a cautious policy stance [3] - The trade policy direction is a key variable influencing future economic conditions [3] Group 2 - The April CPI review shows a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, raising expectations for interest rate cuts [4] - The May CPI is expected to accelerate to a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, primarily driven by tariffs raising prices of goods such as clothing, furniture, and auto parts [4] - Core CPI is projected to grow at a month-on-month rate of 0.3%, with year-on-year growth remaining at 2.8%, despite some service sector inflation easing [4] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley warns that the cost pressures from tariffs will become evident in May and peak in June [4] - Walmart executives have indicated that consumers will start feeling price increases from the end of May, with more noticeable effects in June [4] - If tariffs persist, Wells Fargo anticipates that core CPI growth will accelerate in the second half of the year, potentially reaching 3.3% year-on-year in Q4 [4] Group 4 - Other policy factors such as tightened immigration policies, deregulation, and tax cuts may also contribute to rising prices [4] - Federal Reserve officials believe the impact of tariffs has not fully manifested, necessitating more data to assess economic direction [4] - The current policy focus is more on inflation risks rather than economic growth slowdown, as the job market remains robust [4] Group 5 - Market expectations suggest that investors anticipate two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, in September and December, contingent on CPI data and trade policy developments [4] - If the U.S. government reaches agreements with trade partners to ease tariff conflicts, inflationary pressures may alleviate, creating conditions for rate cuts [4] - Conversely, if tariffs continue, inflation may rise further, compelling the Federal Reserve to adjust its policy [4] Group 6 - The May CPI data is set to be released on June 11, which will validate whether inflation rebounds as expected [4] - The Federal Reserve's meeting on June 12 will be crucial for observing the interest rate dot plot and economic outlook to determine the policy path [4]