现货黄金失守3260美元/盎司，日内跌幅0.82%，纳指期货涨幅扩大至1.7%。美国联邦法院叫停特朗 普"解放日"贸易政策。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, prioritizing inflation control amid persistent inflation, slowing growth, and policy uncertainty [1][7]. Inflation - Despite a noticeable easing since 2022, as of March 2025, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index year-on-year increase is still at 2.6%, with overall inflation at 2.3%, slightly above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [2]. - Recent tariff increases have significantly impacted the prices of goods and services, with companies planning to pass on cost increases to consumers, further exacerbating inflationary pressures [2]. - The Fed staff analysis indicates that inflation may be more persistent than previously expected, with projections suggesting inflation rates will remain above target until 2027 [2]. Labor Market - The labor market remains robust, with an unemployment rate stable at 4.2% as of April, close to the average level for the second half of 2024 [3]. - However, increasing trade policy uncertainty has led some companies, particularly in manufacturing, agriculture, and retail, to limit or pause hiring plans [3]. - While the current labor market is strong, there are concerns about potential signs of weakness in the coming months due to slowing economic activity and declining export demand [3]. Economic Growth - The first quarter saw a slight decline in actual GDP, attributed to fluctuations in net exports, with a surge in imports ahead of anticipated tariff increases and weak export growth [4]. - The Fed staff predicts that newly announced trade policies will have a more severe impact on economic activity than previously anticipated, potentially dragging down the potential growth rate in the coming years [4]. Financial Markets - Recent financial market volatility has been notable, with long-term Treasury yields rising and the dollar depreciating against most major currencies, attributed to concerns over the adverse effects of trade policies on the U.S. economy [5]. - Although the overall functioning of financial markets remains orderly, liquidity indicators in the Treasury market have deteriorated, reflecting investor uncertainty regarding policy direction [5]. Monetary Policy Stance - The committee members agree that maintaining the current interest rate is appropriate given the robust economic activity and labor market, while emphasizing the need for flexibility in policy adjustments based on new economic information [6][7]. - The Fed is committed to gradually normalizing its balance sheet by reducing holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [7]. Future Outlook - The FOMC signals a clear stance that, despite downward pressure on economic growth, the Fed will not easily shift to a loose monetary policy until inflation clearly returns to target levels [9]. - The Fed is closely monitoring global trade policy developments and their potential ripple effects on the U.S. economy, remaining vigilant and ready to respond flexibly to changes in economic data and risks [9].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that the impact of trade policies on economic activity is greater than previously expected [1] Economic Growth Projections - The staff's forecasts for real GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward compared to the predictions made in March [1] - The announced trade policies are expected to result in a more significant drag on actual economic activity than previously assumed [1] Productivity and Potential GDP - Trade policies are anticipated to lead to a slowdown in productivity growth, which will reduce potential GDP growth in the coming years [1] Output Gap and Labor Market - The output gap is expected to widen significantly during the forecast period due to earlier and larger-than-expected demand drag compared to supply responses [1] - The labor market is projected to weaken considerably, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed the staff's estimate of the natural rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [1]

兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚全世界都在等待美股盘后英伟达公布的最新财报，以及美联储的最新会议纪要！ 一起看看海外市场的表现！ Main Street Research的首席投资官詹姆斯·德默特表示："英伟达的财报不仅对公司本身至关重要，也可能对整个股市起到提振作用，能让投资者重 新聚焦人工智能的潜力，而非华盛顿方面关于关税和税收的消息。" 投资者将关注基于英伟达最新Blackwell芯片的计算系统供应情况及其利润率表现。美国对中国出口先进半导体的限制可能使英伟达的财报发布变得 更复杂。此外，英伟达也正面临质疑，即对人工智能的巨额投资是否合理，同时其产品已成为中美贸易摩擦的焦点之一。 德默特补充说："我们认为，人工智能的故事和发展仍在持续，但受到了贸易担忧和美国政策的干扰。人工智能已被证明可以提升全球经济及企业 的生产力，而我们目前仅处于这个周期的早期阶段。在我们看来，贸易政策可能会减缓经济增长，但人工智能带来的生产力提升应能抵消部分阻 力。" 美股下跌 5月28日晚间，美股开盘之后，三大指数震荡，持续下跌。 英伟达是本季度"七巨头"中最后一家公布财报的公司，作为全球市值最高的芯片制造商，它的表现将成为本轮财报季行情的终 ...

今日周三（5月28日）欧市盘中，黄金期货价格维持下跌走势，目前最新沪金主力价格报771.64元/克， 跌幅0.67%，今日开盘价为769.10元/克，截至目前最高上探773.80元/克，最低触及767.20元/克。 新西兰联储在政策声明中明确指出，当前2.5%的通胀率完全处于1%-3%的目标区间内，这为货币政策 调整提供了充足空间。委员会强调，他们有充分能力应对国内外形势变化，确保中期物价稳定。这种表 态显示出央行在通胀控制和经济增长之间的精准拿捏。 特别值得注意的是，央行特别点明"美国贸易政策的急剧转变"是本次加大宽松力度的关键原因。特朗普 政府近期对中国商品加征关税的举措，已经对全球贸易体系造成冲击。新西兰作为高度依赖出口的国 家，其经济前景与全球贸易环境息息相关。央行警告称，美国关税政策可能导致亚洲地区对新西兰产品 的需求下降，进而拖累国内经济增长。 【黄金期货走势分析】 短线来看黄金期货下跌，截至发稿暂报771.64元/克，跌幅0.67%，最高上探773.80元/克，最低触及 767.20元/克。今日上方阻力位为796-806，下方支撑位为733-743. 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【宏观消息 ...

Core Insights - Despite concerns about tariffs announced by Trump potentially increasing U.S. inflation, market indicators suggest that investor worries about future price surges are not strong [1][2] - The announcement of large tariffs on April 2 did not significantly impact the one-year U.S. inflation swap rate, which remained stable at 3.4% compared to 3.36% the previous week [1][2] - The upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data is crucial for assessing inflation trends, as it is a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve [2] Inflation Indicators - Recent inflation indicators show an upward trend, with the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicating the fastest increase in input costs and output prices since 2022 [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year ending in April shows an inflation rate of 2.3%, with the core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) higher at 2.8% [6] Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcement, initial market volatility was observed, but as trade negotiations progressed, market fluctuations began to stabilize [2] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which measures market fear, spiked in early April but has since returned to around 20, close to its long-term average [2] - The ICE BofA Merrill Lynch MOVE Index, which tracks bond market volatility, has also seen a significant decline since early April [2] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that tariffs will lead to a one-time increase in prices, with core PCE inflation expected to rebound to 3.6% later this year before declining next year [8] - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with a recent survey indicating a jump from 6.5% in April to 7.3% in May [9] - Despite inflation concerns, the U.S. economy is expected to remain weak, with growth below potential and a moderate rise in unemployment [9] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment improved significantly following Trump's announcement to delay high tariffs on the EU, leading to substantial gains in U.S. stock markets [9] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.8%, the S&P 500 increased by 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged by 2.5% on the day following the tariff delay announcement [9] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 7.6 basis points to 4.432%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 24 [9]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are declining due to the dual impact of Trump's trade policies and OPEC+ production decisions, with the market awaiting further signals [1] Group 1: Oil Prices - Recent trends indicate a significant drop in oil prices, influenced by geopolitical factors and production strategies [1] - The market is closely monitoring the implications of OPEC+ decisions on future oil supply and pricing [1] Group 2: Trade Policies - Trump's trade policies are contributing to market volatility, affecting investor sentiment and oil demand forecasts [1] - The interplay between trade policies and oil production decisions is critical for understanding market dynamics [1]

Macroeconomic and Policy Aspects - European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde indicated that the ECB will announce its latest interest rate decision on June 5, following seven rate cuts in the past year, with expectations for continued easing to boost economic growth [1] - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintained a stance of not rushing to cut rates during a commencement speech at Princeton University [2] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda noted increased uncertainty from trade policies and indicated that future rate hikes will depend significantly on the impact of tariffs on the economy [1][2] Economic Data Releases - U.S. April durable goods orders are expected to drop sharply from 9.2% to -8.2%, while core capital goods orders are projected to rise slightly from 0.1% to 0.2% [2] - U.S. April PCE price index is anticipated to slow down by 0.1 percentage points to 2.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [3] Industry Events - OPEC+ announced plans to gradually increase production to 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026, with a significant increase of 411,000 barrels per day planned for July [4] - Huawei held a launch event for its new product, the Respect S800 [5] Company-Specific Events - Meituan is expected to report Q1 2026 revenue of 86.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.07%, with a focus on its delivery and local services [6] - Pinduoduo is projected to achieve Q1 2025 revenue of 103.368 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.07%, while expected earnings per share will decline by 9.77% [6] - Xiaomi is forecasted to report Q1 revenue of 106.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 41.6%, driven by recovery in the smartphone market and government subsidies [7]

金十数据5月22日讯，美国初请失业金降至四周低点，进一步证明，面对与贸易政策相关的不确定性日 益增加，就业市场仍保持健康。美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至5月17日当周初请失业金人数减 少2,000人，至22.7万人，与预期基本一致。初请失业金人数表明，尽管对关税的担忧加剧，以及特朗普 政府缩减联邦政府的行动带来的连锁反应，但企业对员工配备水平相对满意。尽管特朗普政府在部分关 税问题上做出了让步，但美联储穆萨勒姆仍认为，贸易政策可能会给就业市场带来压力。他表示："总 的来说，关税可能会抑制经济活动，导致劳动力市场进一步疲软。"包括耐克和亚马逊在内的多家大公 司最近都表示正在裁员。失去联邦政府资助的学校和企业也宣布裁员，其中包括哥伦比亚大学。 美国初请数据降至四周以来最低水平 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the implementation of the "two new" policies. Shanghai has introduced a special action plan to boost consumption, including measures to promote the replacement of old consumer goods, support automobile and home appliance consumption, and offer subsidies for purchasing new digital products [1]. - In the service industry, attention should be paid to the export - related policy restrictions in the logistics industry. The EU plans to charge fees on small parcels entering the EU, most of which are from China [1]. - The prices of some upstream products are fluctuating. Egg prices are oscillating, aluminum prices are rising, while glass and rubber prices are falling in the short - term [2]. - In the mid - stream, the PTA and asphalt开工率 have increased, while the PX开工率 has decreased [3]. - In the downstream, the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined to a near - three - year low, and the number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [4]. - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have slightly declined recently [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Upstream - **Agriculture**: Egg prices have been oscillating recently [2]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Aluminum prices have been rising continuously [2]. - **Black metals**: Glass and rubber prices have declined in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Mid - stream - **Chemical industry**: The PTA开工率 has increased, while the PX开工率 has decreased recently [3]. - **Infrastructure**: The asphalt开工率 has been increasing continuously recently [3]. 3.3 Downstream - **Real estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a near - three - year low [4]. - **Service industry**: The number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [4]. 3.4 Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have slightly declined recently [5]. 3.5 Industry Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of multiple industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and chemical industry have changed. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry has decreased from 78.86 last week to 63.16 this week [52]. 3.6 Key Industry Price Indicators - The prices of various products in different industries have changed. For example, the spot price of PTA has increased by 1.48% to 4986.3 yuan/ton on May 21, while the spot price of WTI crude oil has decreased by 2.58% to 62.0 dollars/barrel [53].