美联储博斯蒂克：进一步降息会将货币政策推向或进入宽松领域，从而使通胀和通胀预期面临风险。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of Kevin Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair has significant implications for monetary policy, with a focus on a non-traditional approach of simultaneous interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, contingent on regulatory reforms [2][3]. Group 1: Personnel Changes and Market Reactions - Kevin Hassett, previously seen as the frontrunner for the position of National Economic Council Director, has seen his odds drop from over 80% to 51% following Trump's endorsement of Kevin Walsh [2]. - Walsh's odds surged from 11% to 44% after Trump's comments, indicating a shift in market sentiment regarding the leadership of the Federal Reserve [2]. Group 2: Walsh's Monetary Philosophy - Walsh's monetary philosophy is characterized by three main oppositions: against quantitative easing (QE), against forward guidance, and against the expansion of the Fed's mission [3]. - He criticizes the Fed's past actions that led to an eightfold increase in its balance sheet over the last fifteen years, arguing that low interest rates have fueled excessive debt in the U.S. [3]. Group 3: Potential Policy Changes - If appointed, Walsh may reduce the focus on QE, reform the Fed's modeling teams, and push Congress to redefine the Fed's dual mandate [3]. - His recent statements suggest a "structurally non-dovish" stance on interest rates, advocating for rate cuts to counteract fiscal tightening and real estate downturns, while insisting that rate cuts must accompany balance sheet reductions [3][4]. Group 4: Regulatory and Legislative Challenges - Deutsche Bank estimates that if reserve requirements decrease by $200 billion to $300 billion, the Fed could reduce its balance sheet to $6.5 trillion without restarting repurchase agreements, allowing for a potential interest rate cut of 100 to 125 basis points [4]. - However, proposed regulatory relaxations by Vice Chair Bowman and Governor Milan require bipartisan legislative support, with a less than 30% chance of implementation before summer 2025 [4]. Group 5: Broader Implications for the Federal Reserve Framework - Walsh's rise could trigger a fundamental overhaul of the Federal Reserve's framework, shifting from a focus on QE and multiple objectives back to a singular focus on price stability [4]. - The ongoing "Kevin" battle highlights the potential for significant changes in monetary policy direction under Trump's renewed influence [4].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and short-term Treasury bond purchases have led to cautious investor sentiment regarding the high valuations in the AI sector, while optimism remains about the rate cut's potential to boost the real economy [1] - Funds have been flowing out of high-valuation tech stocks into interest rate-sensitive sectors such as financials and industrials, resulting in a mixed performance among the three major U.S. stock indices last week [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 1% for the week, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell approximately 0.6% and over 1.6%, respectively [1] Group 2 - In the precious metals market, the combination of the Fed's rate cut and balance sheet expansion has driven down U.S. Treasury yields and weakened the dollar, resulting in an approximate 2% increase in international gold prices last week [3] - Silver prices reached new highs last week, supported by supply shortages, tight inventories, and surging industrial demand, despite a significant drop of about 4% on Friday [3] - Overall, silver prices increased by 5% for the week [3] Group 3 - In the crude oil futures market, investor focus was on the progress of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with some investors reducing positions in anticipation of Russian oil returning to the international market, leading to a significant decline in international oil prices last week [5] - The price of the main NYMEX crude oil futures contract fell by 4.39%, while the main Brent crude oil futures contract dropped by 4.13% [5] Group 4 - This week, central banks in several developed economies, including the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, are expected to announce their latest interest rate decisions, with the Bank of England likely to cut rates by 25 basis points due to weaker-than-expected economic growth [7] - In the Eurozone, persistent service sector inflation above the ECB's target is leading traders to expect the ECB to maintain its current policy stance, with some institutions predicting no rate cuts next year and even a possibility of rate hikes [7] - The market anticipates a divergence in monetary policy paths among developed economies, with the Fed potentially cutting rates one to two times next year, while other central banks may tighten their policies [7] Group 5 - The U.S. is set to release its first non-farm payroll report and November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data since the end of the government shutdown, with expectations of increased job numbers due to the end of the shutdown [9] - The CPI is projected to rebound to a year-on-year increase of 3.1% due to tariff policies, which may influence the Fed's monetary policy path for the coming year [9]

Economic Growth Targets - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to balance qualitative improvements and quantitative growth in setting economic growth targets, suggesting a target range of 4.5% to 5% for next year [2] - The economic growth rate is crucial as it determines the overall economic output, while price levels affect the sustainability of this growth [2] Price Level and Inflation - Current price levels in China are low, but there has been a marginal improvement, with consumer prices rising by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [3] - The central economic work conference indicates that promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery will be key considerations for monetary policy, with expectations for consumer price growth to be set around 2% for next year [3] Employment Goals - The relationship between GDP growth and urban employment is strong, with estimates suggesting that a 1% increase in economic growth can create over 2 million jobs [4] - The target for urban employment in the coming year is expected to exceed 12 million, considering the increase in college graduates and the emphasis on employment stability in the central economic work conference [4] Overall Economic Strategy - The conference outlines the importance of setting reasonable targets for economic growth, price levels, and employment as a means to guide economic work and manage market expectations effectively [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market focused on the Fed's December FOMC meeting overseas and the Central Economic Work Conference in China last week. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the market strengthened its easing expectations. In China, the Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for continued easing in 2026 [5]. - Global stock markets and commodities mostly declined, and A - shares showed a differentiated trend. Commodities were more differentiated, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals rising strongly, while the energy and chemical sectors were dragged down by weak oil prices, and the black series tumbled [5]. - The domestic bond market showed mixed performance, with short - term bonds stronger than long - term bonds, and the stock index fluctuated and differentiated. Most domestic commodity categories closed down [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Overseas, the December FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25bp, and the dot - plot showed differences among Fed officials. The market strengthened its easing expectations, with U.S. bond yields showing a pattern of short - term weakness and long - term strength, and the U.S. dollar index under pressure. In China, the Central Economic Work Conference affirmed 2025 and set the tone for 2026. The November macro - economic data was mediocre, with industrial production weakening, investment slowing down, consumption decreasing, exports being strong, prices differentiating, and credit being weak. Capital market investors were cautious, and the VIX index fluctuated narrowly. Global stock markets and commodities mostly declined, and A - shares showed a differentiated trend. The BDI index dropped significantly. Commodities were more differentiated, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals rising strongly, the energy and chemical sectors being dragged down by weak oil prices, and the black series tumbling due to the deterioration of the real estate market and relatively stable policies [5]. Domestic Market Performance - The domestic bond market showed mixed performance, with short - term bonds stronger than long - term bonds, and the stock index fluctuated and differentiated. The growth - style stocks performed better than value - style stocks, and the CSI 500 rebounded significantly. Most domestic commodity categories closed down, with the Wind Commodity Index having a weekly change of 4.4%. Among the 10 commodity category indices, 3 rose and 7 fell. Precious metals soared by more than 4%, non - ferrous metals were strong, and soft commodities were resistant to decline. Other sectors all declined, with the energy and chemical sectors being weak, and the black series and non - metallic building materials having large declines [6]. - In terms of the futures market capital flow, funds in the commodity futures market flowed out significantly overall. The precious metals and soft commodities sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the energy, grain, and agricultural and sideline products sectors had significant capital outflows [6][18]. - Regarding commodity volatility, the volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index decreased slightly, while the volatility of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index increased. The volatility of commodity futures categories showed mixed performance, with the chemical and oil and fat sectors having obvious volatility declines, and the non - ferrous and energy sectors having notable volatility increases [6]. Fed's Situation - The CME's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January changed little, with the probability of maintaining the interest rate at 3.5 - 3.75% at 72.7%, similar to last week's 61.6%, and the probability of a 25bp cut to 3.25 - 3.5% remaining at less than 30%. The market expects 1 - 3 more interest rate cuts in 2026 [7]. - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range from 3.75% - 4.00% to 3.50% - 3.75% at the December FOMC meeting, with a total of 75bp cuts this year. The Fed also announced the start of reserve management to rebuild liquidity buffers in the money market [77][78]. - The Fed raised the GDP growth expectations for this year and the next three years, with the largest increase of 0.5 percentage points for next year. It slightly lowered the unemployment rate expectation for 2027 by 0.1 percentage points and slightly lowered the PCE inflation and core PCE inflation expectations for this year and next year by 0.1 percentage points each [84]. - The dot - plot shows that the Fed still expects one 25bp interest rate cut next year, and the interest rate path prediction is consistent with three months ago. There are still differences among Fed officials, with three members voting against the 25bp interest rate cut at the December meeting [90][96]. China's Economic Situation - In November, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the core CPI increasing by 1.2% year - on - year, remaining the same as last month. PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with a 0.1% month - on - month increase. The inflation data showed differentiation, and more efforts are needed to promote the recovery of prices [109][110]. - The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that the core contradiction in the current economic operation is the strong supply and weak demand in China, and there are three intertwined challenges. The conference emphasized that these are "problems in development and transformation" and aimed to manage expectations and boost confidence [113]. - In November, China's industrial production weakened, investment slowed down, consumption decreased, exports were strong, prices differentiated, and credit was weak [117]. This Week's Focus - The market is concerned about a series of postponed U.S. economic data, including the November non - farm payroll report and CPI, as well as the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. It is expected that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, and the Bank of England may cut interest rates by 25bp [7]. - A series of economic data and central bank interest rate decisions from various countries will be announced this week, including China's November economic data, U.S. inflation and employment data, and the interest rate decisions of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Russian Central Bank [121].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货国债年报 短端宽松托底 长端博弈政策预期 从业资格号：F03117664 交易咨询号：Z0022772 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 20251215 作者：石舒宇 0769-22116880 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 • 2025年货币政策基调延续"适度宽松" ，但更强调精准施策与预期管理，货币政策从总量刺激转向结构性支持与存量效能 释放，重点支持科技创新、普惠小微与消费领域，同时重申防范资金空转与汇率超调 ...

格隆汇12月15日｜欧洲央行观察家Anatoli Annenkov在一份报告中表示，考虑到数据的弹性和通胀预期 的下行风险降低，法国兴业银行不再预计欧洲央行将在2026年3月降息。然而，近期通胀下行风险依然 存在。尤其是美国关税造成的利润率压缩、劳动力市场状况缓和以及能源价格下跌，可能导致明年薪资 增长和通胀预期放缓，这可能促使欧洲央行采取行动。与市场一致，法国兴业银行也预计欧洲央行将在 本周的会议上维持利率不变。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and initiated the purchase of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to cautious investor sentiment regarding the high valuations in the AI sector while maintaining optimism about the potential boost to the real economy from lower rates [1] - As a result of sector rotation, funds have flowed from high-valuation tech stocks into rate-sensitive financial and industrial sectors, causing a divergence in the performance of the three major U.S. stock indices [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Market - The combination of the Federal Reserve's rate cut and balance sheet expansion has driven down U.S. Treasury yields and weakened the dollar, resulting in an approximate 2% increase in international gold prices last week [4] - Silver prices reached new highs due to supply shortages, tight inventories, and surging industrial demand, despite a significant drop of about 4% on Friday; overall, silver prices rose by 5% for the week [4] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices experienced a significant decline as investors focused on the progress of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with some anticipating a peace agreement that could lead to the return of Russian oil to the international market [5] - For the week, the price of the main contract for New York crude oil futures fell by 4.39%, while Brent crude oil futures dropped by 4.13% [5] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Indicators - This week, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are expected to announce their latest interest rate decisions, with the Bank of England likely to cut rates by 25 basis points due to worse-than-expected economic growth [8] - The European Central Bank is anticipated to maintain its current policy, with traders expecting no rate cuts in the near future, and some analysts suggesting a potential for rate hikes next year [8] - The U.S. is set to release its first non-farm payroll report and November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data since the end of the government shutdown, with expectations of increased job numbers and a potential rebound in CPI growth to 3.1% [11]

12月15日，经济学家预测，欧洲央行的下一步利率行动将是加息，这与投资者和具有影响力的执行委员 会成员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔的观点一致，因为通胀率正稳定在2%左右。一项调查中，超过60%的受访者 表示，官员们更有可能上调而非降低借贷成本——这是一个显著的变化，因为在10月份，只有三分之一 的受访者持这种看法。然而，他们并不认为这种情况会很快发生：预计存款利率将在12月18日及未来两 年内维持在2%不变。在通胀趋稳且欧元区经济经受住全球贸易紧张局势和地缘政治动荡的考验（表现 好于预期）之后，分析师们正在修正他们的预测。施纳贝尔在一次采访中列举了这种韧性——以及政府 大量支出所助力的更光明前景——作为她对市场押注下次利率行动是加息感到"相当安心"的理由之一。 一项指标指向首次加息可能发生在2027年下半年。 另外，英国10月GDP意外收缩0.1%，加之通胀预期从两年高位回落，为英国央行下周重启降息周期提 供有力支撑。疲弱的增长数据及缓和的价格压力正推动市场将降息概率推升至90%。 英国国家统计局 周五公布的数据显示，10月GDP环比下滑0.1%，低于路透调查经济学家预期的0.1%增长。这是英国经 济过去七个月中实现增 ...

与瑞士央行的维稳立场形成鲜明对比的是，美联储此前如期实施25个基点降息，并释放出更为鸽派的政 策信号。美联储主席鲍威尔淡化通胀担忧，明确排除加息可能性，市场普遍预期2026年美联储将继续推 进货币宽松进程，直接导致美元指数承受下行压力，进一步放大了美元兑瑞郎的跌幅。这种政策周期的 错位成为当前汇价走势的核心结构性驱动因素——美联储已进入明确的降息通道，而瑞士央行因利率已 处于0%水平，政策宽松空间受到显著约束，这种不对称格局持续影响着两种货币的相对强弱关系。 通胀层面，瑞士物价形势持续低迷，11月消费者物价指数(CPI)同比涨幅降至0%，较8月的0.2%进一步 回落，主要受酒店住宿、房租及服装等领域价格下行拖累。基于此，瑞士央行下调了中期通胀预期，将 2026年通胀预期从0.5%下调至0.3%，2027年预期从0.7%下调至0.6%，反映出该行对未来物价压力的判 断更趋谨慎。尽管通胀低迷引发市场对瑞士央行进一步宽松的猜测，但结合其对负利率的谨慎态度，短 期政策调整概率较低。 经济增长方面，瑞士第三季度GDP因制药行业出口回调出现收缩，但其他制造业和服务业的温和增长部 分抵消了这一拖累；瑞士央行预计2025年G ...