Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant drop in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield falling by 5.6 basis points to 4.16%, marking the largest decline since disappointing non-farm payroll data in August [1] - The market is anxiously awaiting the upcoming non-farm payroll data, with a 99.4% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, leading to concerns that poor data might prompt the Fed to act sooner than expected [3] - Recent actions by the U.S. Treasury, including a Q3 refinancing plan that reduced long-term debt issuance by $50 billion, have provided temporary relief to the market, although future debt issuance could increase by $2 trillion due to Trump's fiscal plans [3] Group 2 - Foreign investments are increasing in the U.S. Treasury market, with net inflows of $12.7 billion in August, particularly from China and Japan, indicating that institutional investors see value in the current yield environment [3] - September is expected to be a volatile month for the bond market, with $310 billion in corporate bonds set to be issued, potentially diverting significant capital [4] - The article warns that upcoming changes in tariff policies could elevate inflation expectations, reminiscent of last October's spike in Treasury yields, which caused substantial losses for investors [4]

近期特朗普试图加强对美联储的控制，包括推动罢免理事Lisa Cook，这一举动引发市场对央行独立性的担忧。欧洲央行行长拉加德警告称，美联储失 去独立性将对全球构成"严重危险"。 高盛最新警告称，如果美联储公信力受损，投资者仅需将极小部分美债持仓转向黄金，金价就可能飙升至每盎司近5000美元的惊人水平。高盛基线预测 为2026年中金价升至4000美元，尾部风险情境下达到4500美元，极端情况下逼近5000美元关口。 高盛最新警告称，如果美联储公信力受损，投资者仅需将极小部分美债持仓转向黄金，金价就可能飙升至每盎司近5000美元的惊人水平。 周四，高盛分析师团队在最新报告中表示，美联储独立性受损的情形下，市场将面临通胀上升、股债双跌以及美元储备货币地位削弱的多重冲击。相比 之下，黄金作为不依赖机构信任的价值储存工具，将成为投资者的避风港。 高盛在报告中提出三种金价情景：基线预测为2026年中升至4000美元，尾部风险情境下达到4500美元，而极端情况下若仅1%私人持有美债资金流入 黄金市场，金价将逼近5000美元关口。 黄金今年已成为表现最强劲的主要大宗商品之一，涨幅超过30%并于本周初创出历史新高。央行增持、美 ...

Group 1 - The conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook marks a significant political event, as it is unprecedented for a sitting president to attempt to dismiss a Federal Reserve official [1][3] - The legal basis for Trump's action hinges on allegations of "mortgage fraud," which raises questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the legitimacy of political interference in its operations [3][6] - The market is reacting to these political tensions, with a notable inversion in the yield curve indicating concerns over short-term interest rate cuts versus long-term inflation risks [4][9] Group 2 - The independence of central banks is crucial for macroeconomic stability, and any perceived erosion of this independence could have severe implications for both the U.S. and global economies [6] - The legal proceedings initiated by Cook could set a precedent regarding what constitutes "just cause" for dismissing Federal Reserve officials, potentially impacting future political interactions with the central bank [6][7] - Trump's dual strategy of applying pressure both domestically on the Federal Reserve and internationally on the EU reflects a broader approach to economic management, aiming for favorable outcomes in trade and monetary policy [9]

高盛最新警告称，如果美联储公信力受损，投资者仅需将极小部分美债持仓转向黄金，金价就可能飙升至每盎司 近5000美元的惊人水平。 高盛在报告中提出三种金价情景：基线预测为2026年中升至4000美元，尾部风险情境下达到4500美元，而极端情 况下若仅1%私人持有美债资金流入黄金市场，金价将逼近5000美元关口。 近期特朗普试图加强对美联储的控制，包括推动罢免理事Lisa Cook，这一举动引发市场对央行独立性的担忧。欧 洲央行行长拉加德警告称，美联储失去独立性将对全球构成"严重危险"。 美联储独立性风险引发市场担忧 高盛在题为"分散投资大宗商品，尤其是黄金"的报告中详细分析了推动金价达到5000美元的机制。分析师包括 Samantha Dart在内的团队估算，"如果私人持有的美国国债市场中仅有1%的资金流入黄金，在其他条件不变的情 况下，金价将升至每盎司近5000美元"。 该投行将黄金描述为"不依赖机构信任的价值储存工具"，这一特性在央行独立性面临质疑时显得尤为重要。报告 指出，美联储独立性受损将导致一系列连锁反应，包括通胀预期上升、传统金融资产吸引力下降，以及美元国际 地位的潜在动摇。 黄金今年已成为表现最强 ...

Macroeconomic and Industry News - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity in most U.S. districts has shown little to no change, with consumer spending remaining flat or declining due to wages not keeping pace with rising prices [1] - Price increases were reported across all districts, with 10 districts noting "moderate or subdued" inflation and two districts experiencing "strong input price growth" [1] - Employment levels remained stable or showed no net change in 11 districts, while one district reported a slight decline [1] Commodity Analysis - The main copper futures contract closed at 80,260 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.10% and a trading volume of 27,000 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,530 lots to 190,600 lots [2] - The processing fee for imported copper ore recorded at -41.25 USD/dry ton, indicating a significant drop and potential losses for smelters, necessitating clarity on whether smelting output has increased or if there is a tightening at the mining end [2] - Codelco's reduction in annual production guidance has led to expectations of decreased mineral output, although current inventory levels suggest otherwise, indicating a higher likelihood of reduced output from the mining side [2] - In terms of demand, only copper rod production remains at historically high levels, while other sectors like copper pipes, cables, and copper plates are declining [2] - Overall market logic is shifting towards macro trading, with rising inflation expectations and cooling employment forecasts potentially increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could benefit the non-ferrous sector [2] Inventory and Structure - Domestic copper social inventory has continued to decline slightly, remaining above last year's levels but still lower compared to historical averages for this time of year [3] - Total inventory across major exchanges has increased, indicating weak demand fundamentals and aligning with the seasonal consumption slowdown [2] Investment Recommendations - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book suggests stagnant economic activity but rising prices, which, combined with the recent ruling on U.S. tariffs, may increase the likelihood of the government failing in its appeal to the Supreme Court [4] - The supply side still has speculative support due to tight mining conditions and significantly negative processing fees [4] - A strategy of light long positions is recommended [4]

Group 1 - European financial markets are expected to enter a cautious stabilization phase after significant declines, influenced by inflation expectations, central bank policies, fiscal pressures, and political uncertainties [1] - Eurozone member states plan to issue over €100 billion in new bonds in September, raising concerns about supply excess and higher required yields from investors [1][2] - Political risks in specific countries, such as France's government facing a confidence vote, have exacerbated fiscal concerns and widened the yield spread between French and German bonds [1][2] Group 2 - The European bond market experienced significant turbulence, with the 30-year German bond yield rising to 3.41%, the highest since 2011, and the 30-year French bond yield reaching 4.52%, the highest since 2009 [2] - Rising government bond yields are seen as a warning signal for financial markets, indicating concerns over current policy paths and leading to higher term premiums [2] - The DAX index fell by 2.29%, and major U.S. stock indices also faced pressure, reflecting the impact of rising bond yields on equity markets [2] Group 3 - U.S.-EU trade tensions have escalated, with the Trump administration imposing higher tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products, potentially leading to a trade conflict [3] - The inflation data released for the Eurozone showed a 2.1% year-on-year increase in consumer prices for August, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3][4] Group 4 - European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Isabel Schnabel reinforced hawkish expectations, suggesting current rates should remain unchanged and warning of potential inflation risks from tariffs and fiscal expansion [4] - Market expectations indicate that the ECB is unlikely to take further action this year, contributing to rising long-term bond yields [4] Group 5 - The market anticipates an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with internal divisions within the Fed regarding the timing of such cuts [5] - Upcoming economic data, particularly related to the U.S. labor market, is expected to significantly impact market conditions and Fed decision-making [5][6] Group 6 - The focus of the market has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "the pace and frequency of rate cuts," with any comments from ECB President Lagarde potentially influencing the Eurozone bond market [6] - Investor sentiment remains fragile, with concerns that buying on dips may be replaced by selling on highs, leading to negative market effects [6]

Group 1 - European financial markets are expected to enter a cautious stabilization phase after significant declines, influenced by inflation expectations, central bank policies, fiscal pressures, and political uncertainties [1] - Eurozone member countries plan to issue over €100 billion in new debt in September, raising concerns about short-term "oversupply" in the market, leading investors to demand higher yields [1][2] - Political risks in specific countries, such as France facing a confidence vote due to budget cuts, have widened the yield spread between French and German bonds, reflecting market risk aversion towards economies with poor fiscal discipline [1][2] Group 2 - The European bond market experienced significant turbulence, with the 30-year German bond yield rising to 3.41%, the highest since 2011, and the 30-year French bond yield reaching 4.52%, the highest since 2009 [2] - Rising government bond yields are seen as a warning signal for financial markets, indicating concerns over current policy paths, which could lead to higher term premiums [2] - The DAX index fell by 2.29%, and major U.S. stock indices also faced pressure, with the Dow Jones down 0.55% and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.79% [2] Group 3 - U.S.-EU trade tensions have escalated, with the Trump administration imposing higher tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products, potentially leading to a trade conflict and affecting market confidence [3] - Eurozone inflation data for August showed a 2.1% year-on-year increase, slightly above previous values and market expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3][4] Group 4 - European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Isabel Schnabel reinforced hawkish expectations, suggesting current rates should remain unchanged and warning that tariffs and fiscal expansion could increase future inflation risks [4] - Market expectations for the ECB to refrain from further rate cuts this year have led to rising long-term bond yields [4] Group 5 - The market anticipates an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with internal divisions within the Fed regarding the timing of such cuts [5] - Upcoming economic data, particularly U.S. labor market reports, are expected to significantly impact market conditions and Fed decision-making [5][6] Group 6 - The focus of the market has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "the pace and frequency of rate cuts," with any comments from ECB President Lagarde potentially influencing the Eurozone bond market [6] - Investor sentiment remains fragile, with concerns that buying on dips could be replaced by selling on highs, leading to negative market effects [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly, with an increase in open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. The cost - support logic for copper prices remains strong due to rising raw material prices and negative TC fees in the mining end. The supply of domestic refined copper may decline slightly as domestic copper concentrate port inventories are low and raw material supply is relatively tight. The downstream export demand may decline due to high tariffs on copper semi - products imposed by the US, while domestic demand is expected to recover due to macro - policy support and the approaching traditional consumption season. The overall inventory will remain at a medium - low level and gradually decrease with the recovery of consumption. The industry outlook is positive. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows red bars converging with both lines above the 0 - axis. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile market and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper main futures contract is 80,110 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,015 dollars/ton, up 34.5 dollars. The main contract inter - month spread is 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 192,109 lots, up 12,044 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 5,870 lots, down 778 lots. The LME copper inventory is 158,875 tons, down 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) cathode copper inventory is 79,748 tons, down 1,950 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 19,501 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,520 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,455 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 56.5 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is 410 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 69.58 dollars/ton, up 16.69 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The TC fee for domestic copper smelters is - 41.48 dollars/kiloton, down 0.33 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 70,440 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,140 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan. The processing fee for crude copper in the South is 700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the North, it is 700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, down 3.2 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,740 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.5 billion yuan, up 40.434 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 53,579.77 billion yuan, up 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.25%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.18%, down 0.82%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 11.08%, down 0.0017. The call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.35, up 0.0006 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US ISM manufacturing index in August rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7, below the market expectation of 49, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new order index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, but the output index fell back into the contraction range. The employment index rose, and the price - paid index declined. After the data release, the probability of a September interest - rate cut rose above 90%, and the US dollar index rebounded. - The central bank's liquidity injection in August showed a net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan, a net PSL withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan, and a net outright reverse - repurchase injection of 300 billion yuan, with no open - market treasury bond trading. - US President Trump said he would appeal to the US Supreme Court regarding the global tariff case and warned of a "perhaps unprecedented shock" if he loses the appeal. - The eurozone CPI in August rose 2.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2%. The core CPI declined slightly, and the service - price increase slowed down. An ECB hawkish official said the ECB should suspend interest - rate cuts due to upward inflation risks. - On September 2, Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two sides signed more than 20 bilateral cooperation documents in various fields [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Insights of the Report - The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle. Powell's dovish stance at the global central bank meeting paves the way for a September rate cut, making the path of overseas inflation more straightforward [2]. - The current commodity fundamentals are still weak, and caution should be exercised regarding the implementation of policy expectations. Commodity price volatility may remain high [2]. - With the continuous increase in risk aversion and rate - cut expectations, the prices of gold and silver have reached record highs [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In August, there were initial signs of rising overseas inflation. Global economic data in July remained resilient. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, while non - manufacturing remained in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, higher than expected [1]. - The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, and the government plans to expand service consumption and investment. China's official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4, and non - manufacturing accelerated its expansion [1]. - On September 2, A - shares fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, with the three major indices closing down. The basis of IC and IM futures of stock indices has widened, and subsequent basis changes and risks should be monitored [1]. - In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, with the contraction rate of manufacturing activities slightly slowing down. The "Big Beautiful" Act may support subsequent consumption, and attention should be paid to the further transmission and verification of overseas inflation [1]. Fed and Global Central Banks - Powell's dovish speech at the global central bank meeting on August 22 increased the downward risk of employment, which may lead to a policy adjustment. He also abandoned the 2020 flexible average inflation target framework [2]. - The New York Fed President Williams believes that if the neutral interest rate is 1% or slightly lower, the current situation is in a restrictive area. Trump threatened to remove Fed Governor Cook, and the Fed stated that the removal needs "just cause" [2]. - The European Central Bank's July meeting minutes showed that officials considered inflation risks to be "generally balanced." The preliminary annual CPI rate in the eurozone in August was 2.1%, slightly higher than the previous month, supporting the ECB to maintain the status quo [2]. Commodity Market - Domestically, the black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas inflation expectations can focus on precious metals and agricultural products [2]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation. The supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector have not been alleviated, and the government will regulate the photovoltaic industry [2]. - In the medium - term, the supply of energy is expected to be relatively loose, with OPEC+ accelerating production increases. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worthy of attention [2]. - Agricultural products are currently driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, but they still need fundamental signals and attention should be paid to Sino - US negotiations [2]. Key News - The central bank's liquidity injection in August included a net MLF injection of 30 billion yuan, a net PSL withdrawal of 16.08 billion yuan, and a net injection of 30 billion yuan through repurchase agreements [4]. - The ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War will be held on September 3, with the parade lasting about 70 minutes [4]. - The overall market fluctuated and adjusted, with more stocks falling than rising. The trading volume exceeded 2.91 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.14%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.85% [4]. - The US ISM manufacturing index in August was 48.7, with new orders and other sub - indices showing different trends [4]. - The preliminary annual CPI rate in the eurozone in August was 2.1%, and the core CPI also showed certain changes [4]. - The yield of UK long - term government bonds reached the highest level since 1998, putting pressure on the government. US stocks before the market opened saw a decline in European and US stocks, a surge in long - term bond yields, and a rise in gold prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump has sparked significant market and public reaction, indicating a potential power struggle over monetary policy control [1][3] Group 1: Political Implications - Trump's actions are perceived as a deliberate attempt to exert control over the Federal Reserve, aiming to shift monetary policy decision-making to the White House [1] - The independence of central banks is under threat, as highlighted by Lagarde's warning that any erosion of this independence poses serious risks to both the U.S. and global economies [3] - The legal framework surrounding the Federal Reserve allows for political maneuvering, as the term "for cause" for dismissal is not clearly defined, creating a space for political battles [1][3] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market is responding to potential interest rate cuts, with futures indicating a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, aligning with Trump's demands but driven by different motivations [5] - The current economic context includes a significant national debt of $37 trillion, increasing interest burdens, and a struggling housing market under high rates, prompting calls for quicker monetary easing [5] Group 3: Financial Stability Concerns - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for financial stability, as any perceived political interference could undermine trust in U.S. debt and the dollar as a global reserve currency [7] - Historical examples from other countries, such as Turkey, illustrate the dangers of politicizing central banks, leading to inflation and currency depreciation [3][7] - The ongoing situation raises concerns about the long-term credibility of U.S. monetary policy, as any shift in perception could lead to increased market volatility and a loss of investor confidence [5][7]