交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年5月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美互加大额关税。3月纺织业景气指数回升至52.47%荣枯线上方。 USDA:4月消费调低，库存增加，略偏空。ICAC:4月报预测环比上月增加产量，消费不 变，期末库存略增，略偏空。海关：3月纺织品服装出口同比增12.4%。3月份我国棉花 进口7万吨，同比减少81.4%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比减少31%。农村部4月24/25年度： 产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14183，基差1433（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to enter a recovery phase after the holiday, with a positive outlook for the consumer sector due to strong consumption data during the holiday period [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index showed relative weakness in the last three trading days before the holiday, while the Shenzhen Composite and ChiNext indices demonstrated resilience, particularly with a mild increase in the Shenzhen index on the last trading day [1]. - Despite some panic selling in individual stocks following earnings disclosures, the overall market performance aligned with expectations [1]. Consumer Sector Insights - Strong consumption data during the holiday, including record highs in tourism-related metrics, indicates that consumers remain willing to spend, which is favorable for the consumer sector [2]. - Investors are advised to differentiate between long-term overhyped sectors and individual stocks to avoid chasing high prices [2]. Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged not to overly worry about the current market conditions but to focus on individual stock performance, as a broad market rally is unlikely to be sustained [2]. - It is recommended to observe the market on the first trading day after the holiday and wait for clearer signals before making investment decisions [2]. Risk Awareness - There is a growing concern regarding delisting risks, with approximately 60 stocks facing such risks this year, surpassing the total from the previous year [1]. - Investors should avoid stocks with poor performance or delisting risks, particularly those categorized as "black five categories" [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent back-and-forth between China and the U.S. regarding tariffs highlights a complex negotiation strategy, where the U.S. appears to extend an olive branch while simultaneously implementing punitive measures, creating confusion about the sincerity of their negotiation intentions [1][3][5]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy Changes - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced the cancellation of the tax exemption policy for cross-border packages valued under $800, affecting a significant volume of Chinese goods entering the U.S. daily [5][7]. - This policy change is expected to impact numerous Chinese e-commerce platforms, such as TEMU and SHEIN, which handle millions of packages daily, leading to increased costs for consumers and businesses alike [12][14]. Group 2: Implications for E-commerce - The cancellation of the $800 exemption is particularly targeted at the fast-moving consumer goods sector, which has seen a 34% increase in exports from China to the U.S. in 2023, with 70% of these goods valued under $800 [25][27]. - The new policy could raise the end prices of goods by 20-30%, significantly affecting the business models of platforms like SHEIN, which relies heavily on low-cost, high-volume sales [14][16]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - The timing of the U.S. policy change, occurring shortly after China's diplomatic overtures, suggests a calculated strategy to test China's response while maintaining a façade of negotiation [16][19]. - China's response has been measured, focusing on maintaining dialogue without committing to specific timelines, indicating a strategic approach to avoid escalating tensions [19][21]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The ongoing tariff battle reflects a shift in focus from traditional goods to the burgeoning cross-border e-commerce sector, indicating a new battleground in U.S.-China trade relations [23][29]. - The complexities of the current trade dynamics suggest that both nations are navigating a delicate balance of cooperation and competition, with potential implications for global trade patterns [31][33].

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、中美谈判有重要进展? 如何影响A股、港股和美股? 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙妙子微信huxiuvip302，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 2、美国关税战本周有结果? 如何影响大类资产? 3、巴菲特如何看待美股波动、科技颠覆和美国国运? 1、中美谈判有重要进展? 如何影响A股、港股和美股? 这个五一长假，我们看到金融市场出现了几个异常变化。一起来梳理一下。 首先，新兴市场国家的货币出现了大幅升值。其中，人民币升值了大约1%，韩元升值了3%，而中国台 湾地区的新台币升值幅度更大，达到了5%。汇率是一个非常敏感的指标，那么这背后反映出的是什么 呢？其实就两个字——关税。 在五一期间，关于关税的谈判，美国和其他国家以及中国都出现了一些转机。我们说，与中国相关的谈 判其实得到了官方的间接认证。我们来看一下商务部这两天的发言。在答记者问时，商务部谈到美国方 面高层已经多次表态，愿意就关税问题与中国方面进行谈判。所以中国方面正在评估。这两个字其实透 露出了很多含义。现在并不是铁板一块拒之门外，而是仍有契机。 ...

5月伊始，人民币汇率表现强劲。5月5日，离岸人民币对美元汇率持续走高，盘中升穿7.19关口，一度上涨超200基点，最高升值至7.189，为2024年11月 以来首次。同期美元指数跌至100关口下方，日内小幅走贬。 延续前一交易日的升值走势，5月5日，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中强势上行，从7.21关口上方升破7.19，最高升值至7.189。在触及升值高点后，离岸人民 币对美元汇率有所回落，围绕7.2关口波动。截至当日17时25分，离岸人民币对美元报7.2036，日内涨幅为0.11%。 美元指数方面，在4月21日失守98美元后，美元指数止住下跌势头，小幅波动回升至100美元附近。截至5月5日17时25分，美元指数日内下跌0.32%，报 99.7174。消息面上，美国总统特朗普最新表示，授权商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程序，对所有在国外制作的进入美国的电影征收100%的关税。消息 发布后，美元指数走低。 回顾4月外汇市场整体表现，受"对等关税"等外围因素影响，4月全球经济与金融市场动荡加剧，人民币汇率、美元指数一度齐跌。相较其他主流货币，人 民币对美元的走势较为稳定。在岸人民币对美元汇率、离岸人民币对美元汇率在波动中 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market experienced a rapid bull run in early April, followed by a period of stabilization, with the 10-year treasury yield fluctuating between 1.62% and 1.67% during this consolidation phase [1][11][12] - In May, the funding environment is expected to remain supportive for the bond market, with a historical trend showing that funding rates typically ease further in May compared to April, aided by a reduction in tax payment pressures [2][20][28] - The report highlights three key factors influencing the bond market in May: tariffs, economic fundamentals, and policy responses, with a focus on the ongoing US-China tariff negotiations and their potential impact on market sentiment [3][35][52] Group 2 - The report notes that the central bank's stance has softened since April, leading to a return of funding rates to a "reasonable state," which is expected to support the bond market [2][28][31] - It is projected that government bond supply will significantly increase in May, with net issuance expected to reach 1.53 trillion yuan, nearly doubling from April, which may create short-term fluctuations in funding costs [2][31][32] - The report outlines three scenarios for investment strategies in May, emphasizing the importance of selecting short-term bonds as the most favorable option, while also considering longer-duration positions to capitalize on potential rate cuts [5][54][56]

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has strengthened significantly, surpassing the 7.20 mark against the USD for the first time since November of the previous year, with an intraday increase of over 100 points [2] - The FTSE China A50 index futures surged, reporting a rise of 0.84% [2] - The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, reaching a low of 99.673 [2] Group 2 - The US Treasury bonds faced significant selling pressure due to the "reciprocal tariff" policy, which raised concerns about stagflation and increased financing costs, leading investors to seek refuge in gold and non-USD currencies [2] - The recent historical sell-off of US Treasuries was attributed to multiple factors, including fears stemming from the US government's tariff policies and the collapse of high-leverage trading strategies among hedge funds [2] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rebounded by 1.74% to 22,504.68 points during the holiday period, reflecting the strength of the offshore RMB [2] Group 3 - The Central Political Bureau's meeting indicated a positive overall tone, stabilizing market sentiment and emphasizing the need for more proactive macro policies, which are expected to be implemented by the end of June [3] - In the short term, the Hang Seng Index is expected to fluctuate around 22,000 points, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a range trading strategy [3] - Investors are advised to focus on defensive dividend sectors while closely monitoring developments in US-China tariff negotiations and changes in non-tariff barriers [3]

"美国赢了。"特朗普在4月30日的内阁会议上高调宣布，似乎关税战的战果已然属于白宫。脸上挂着胜利者的微笑，他宣称中方大量工厂倒闭，资本逃离中 国奔赴美国。场面很热闹，语气很笃定，只是，镜头外的真实，和他说的，似乎不是同一个世界。 美国街头抗议不断，失业率阴影再度升腾。通胀迟迟压不下去，中产苦不堪言。美联储连环加息的背后，是一场被掩盖的金融焦虑。可这些，特朗普没提。 他只挑自己想说的。媒体镜头一转，谈判桌前，美国代表团却频频向中方示好，希望重启对话。这不是矛盾，而是选票逻辑。 从2018年起，美国对华加征关税，金额超过5500亿美元。中方也不示弱，迅速反制。按照美国财政部自己的数据，这场"胜利"的代价是：美国企业额外承担 的关税成本超过1300亿美元。农产品出口大幅下滑，制造业多地空转，波音的订单一减再减。那一年，艾奥瓦的玉米没卖出去，密歇根的工厂裁了一半工 人。他们也喊过"胜利"，可喊得不大声，因为没人信。 一边是自说自话的"胜利"，一边是实打实的体系重建。中美的博弈不只在关税，更在格局。美国擅长打碎旧规则，重组秩序。中国擅长在废墟上搭建新舞 台。而这场"重构"，远比嘴仗更重要。 我们没必要炫耀，也无需喊口号 ...

特朗普强行掀了桌子，美巨头出手，把桌子摆正了！日前，美国三家零售巨头放出重量级信号，发生了什么事呢？ 日前，美国以沃尔玛为代表的零售巨头已经向中国供应商发出通知，要求恢复因中美关税战而暂停的货物运输，并明确表示对华关税将全由美国人买单。此 事的发生，标志着以沃尔玛为代表的美国零售巨头正式放弃挣扎，不再陪美国总统特朗普的关税政策玩命了！此事的发生，表明特朗普对华挑起关税战争， 再失一城。为什么它们都不支持特朗普呢？ 其实像沃尔玛这类零售巨头，最大的优势，不在于营销，不在于装修，也不在于科技和制造业企业才重视的核心技术等，而是在于对供应链的管控。只有建 立起足够完善的供应链，才可以确保它们能够以最低的成本在最快的时间内拿到最多品类的商品，只要做到这个份上，它们货架上的商品才足够多，而且在 定价较低的情况下，依然确保足够的利益，这就是零售巨头的经营逻辑。 正因如此，特朗普对华挑起关税战争的行径，简直等同于在这些零售巨头大动脉上划了一刀，给它们放血。作为全球最大的制造业国家，中国出口的商品， 很多就是供应到这些零售商身上，现在特朗普对中国商品加征那么多关税，直接威胁到的就是这些零售商的供应链。商品不会从货架上自己长出 ...