2026/01/06PX-PTA-MEG周报：地缘事件频发，关注成本扰动 大地期货研究院 观点小结 PX/PTA 核心观点：偏多 当前聚酯市场主要交易PX与PTA2026年上半年供应偏紧的预期，且PX和PTA主力合约距离到期时间较 长，预期逻辑暂时无法证伪。成本端，受中东地缘政治事件升级的影响，原油存在筑底走强的迹象，对 化工品存在支撑，因此中长期PX、PTA多配仍然成立。 短期聚酯产业链对PX、PTA原料价格的走强开始出现负反馈，做多的时机及位置都需要调整。第一重 反馈，PX期货升水现货，仓单开始增加，PTA近期由于加工费的改善，负荷提升。第二重反馈，由于 下游聚酯产品跟涨原料幅度较小，利润受到严重挤压。需求淡季，下游纺织企业订单天数持续减少，原 料备货积极性下降，聚酯工厂库存也开始累积，在库存与利润双重压力下，聚酯工厂提前进入检修季的 概率增加。 因此我们认为，在成本端不出现大幅下跌的前提下，PX和PTA中长期偏多配思路不变，但短期上下游 的负反馈开始显现，PX、PTA价格上方压力开始增加，因此需要注意入场时机。套利方面，PTA负荷提 升后，PX基本面存在转紧张预期，关注PX5-9月差正套。 估值：偏空 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply-demand dynamics, and industry trends, indicating a strong market sentiment and geopolitical risk premium [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - The Shanghai tin contract 2602 experienced a significant increase, opening at 348,300 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 364,240 CNY/ton, and closing at 359,050 CNY/ton, marking an increase of 18,180 CNY or 5.33% [1]. - The average price of 1 tin in the Changjiang market rose by 15,200 CNY from the previous day, with current prices ranging from 356,500 CNY/ton to 358,500 CNY/ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is characterized by a significant decline in Myanmar's tin production, which has dropped by 87% from its peak in 2018, and a projected 85% decrease in exports to China from January to October 2025 [2]. - Global tin inventories are at historical lows, with LME stocks at only 5,420 tons, creating a challenging supply gap [2]. - On the demand side, while traditional electronics are in a seasonal downturn, the explosive growth in AI server construction and photovoltaic installations is driving a surge in demand for high-grade tin solder and welding materials [2]. Group 3: Industry Performance - Leading companies in the tin industry are showing strong performance, with Tin Industry Co. reporting a 35.99% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, entering the top 500 listed companies in China [2]. - Other companies like Huaxi Nonferrous and Zijin Mining are also experiencing significant stock price increases and strategic resource collaborations, reflecting the industry's high growth potential [2]. Group 4: Market Characteristics - The current spot market is exhibiting characteristics of "high price with low trading volume," where high prices are significantly suppressing downstream purchasing intentions, leading to transactions primarily driven by rigid demand [3]. Group 5: Short-term Price Forecast - Short-term tin prices are expected to maintain a high oscillation range of 350,000 to 359,000 CNY/ton, with potential corrections if Myanmar's production exceeds expectations or macroeconomic policies change [4].

在美联储货币政策转向宽松、全球地缘政治风险加剧以及央行持续购金的多重驱动下，摩根士丹利大幅上调金价预期，预计这一传统避险资产将 在2026年继续刷新历史高点，直至冲刺每盎司4800美元大关。 摩根士丹利在1月5日发布的研究报告中指出，黄金价格正受到宏观经济和政策转变的强力支撑。这些因素包括美联储预期的宽松周期、美联储领 导层的变动，以及各国央行和投资基金持续买入。此前，现货黄金已在2025年创下历史性涨幅，年终收涨64%，创下自1979年以来的最强年度表 现。 但在1月7日，贵金属市场遭遇重挫，现货黄金一度失守4450美元/盎司关口。据华尔街见闻，彭博商品指数（BCOM）即将于1月8日至14日启动年 度权重再平衡，市场正面临被动基金"技术性抛售"带来的流动性冲击压力，黄金面临短期看跌反转风险。 长期方面，地缘政治的不确定性进一步点燃了市场对避险资产的需求。据央视新闻报道，当地时间1月3日中午（北京时间1月4日凌晨），美国总 统特朗普、国防部长赫格塞思在佛罗里达州海湖庄园就美军对委内瑞拉动武、将委内瑞拉总统马杜罗控制并移送出境举行记者会。 随着委内瑞拉局势升级，包括美国军事力量介入及该国领导人被捕的消息传出，不 ...

在当前的市场环境下，国际金价大概率将保持高位震荡。若全球经济出现明显放缓，美联储以更大的幅 度降息，或者地缘政治风险加剧，国际金价或将迎来更强的上行动力。如果在特朗普政府关税政策影响 下，通胀再度走高，作为抗通胀资产的黄金有望迎来助力。但与此同时，需要注意的是，通胀走高可能 会促使美联储收紧货币政策，伴随着美元走强，这将在一定程度上打压国际金价。 总体而言，当前的地缘政治环境以及利率环境对国际黄金市场的影响是积极的。摩根士丹利预计，到今 年第四季度，黄金价格将达到4800美元/盎司的新高。不过，由于全球经济金融环境瞬息万变，未来国 际金价是否还能维持上扬走势，还需要谨慎观察，根据具体情况而定。 在2025年12月的货币政策会议上，美联储理事米兰投下反对票，反对降息25个基点。他认为美联储应该 一次性降息50个基点。进入2026年，一直坚持要更大幅度降息的美联储理事米兰，继续保持其"鸽"派态 度。米兰日前表示，数据趋势可能支持进一步降息。美联储2026年的降息幅度累计应该超过100个基 点。美联储目前的货币政策是限制性的，正在拖累美国经济。不过，根据早前的计划，作为临时理事的 米兰，其任期将在今年1月结束。 相 ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期镍周二一度飙升逾10%，触及18785美元/吨的高位，创下三年多来最大盘中涨幅，到收盘，涨近9%，报18524美 元/吨。过去两周内，镍价已累计上涨超过20%，自12月中以来三周内涨近30%。 特朗普政府潜在关税政策持续发酵。据一些报道，美国总统特朗普考虑2027年对进口铜征收约15%的关税，2028年提高至30%。投资者对美国提高关 税的预期导致大量铜库存涌入美国。据CME数据，美国铜库存自2025年4月以来增长超过四倍，截至1月2日达到45.345万吨，而全球其他地区供应告 急。 地缘政治风险推升避险需求。据新华社报道，美国1月3日上周六凌晨对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，突袭委首都加拉加斯等地，强行控制委总统 马杜罗及其夫人，并将二人带至美国。美国强行控制马杜罗引发全球紧张局势加剧，支撑贵金属价格上涨。彭博贵金属分类指数过去一个月涨逾 13%，年初以来涨约5%。 伦镍领涨：中国买盘推动三年最大涨幅 本周二，金属市场延续周一涨势全面爆发。伦镍领衔工业金属大涨，盘中一度涨超10%，纽约期银盘中涨超6%，逼近一周前所创的盘中最高纪录， 伦铜在周一史上首次突破1.3万美元关口后进一 ...

Core Viewpoint - Asian currencies remained stable against the US dollar in early trading, but geopolitical risks may exert pressure on the market [1] Currency Movements - USD/JPY showed slight fluctuations, trading at 156.58 [1] - USD/KRW increased by 0.2% to 1448.60 [1] - AUD/USD decreased by 0.1% to 0.6731 [1] Geopolitical Concerns - Analysts from OCBC Group highlighted concerns regarding the situation in Greenland following US military intervention in Venezuela [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices in China, effective from January 6, 2026, has led to an increase in gasoline and diesel prices, with 92 octane gasoline rising by approximately 0.05 yuan per liter and 95 octane gasoline by about 0.06 yuan per liter [1][3]. Price Adjustments - The new prices for 92 octane gasoline in major cities are as follows: Beijing increased from 6.70 yuan to 6.75 yuan, Shanghai from 6.67 yuan to 6.72 yuan, and Guangzhou from 6.72 yuan to 6.77 yuan [3][4]. - For 95 octane gasoline, the adjusted prices are: Beijing at approximately 7.20 yuan, Shanghai at about 7.16 yuan, and Guangzhou at around 7.26 yuan [3][4]. - Diesel prices also saw an increase, with 0 diesel rising by about 0.05 yuan per liter [1][3]. Pricing Mechanism - The domestic fuel price adjustment follows a "ten working days" rule, where prices are reviewed and potentially adjusted if the average international crude oil price changes by more than 50 yuan per ton [3]. - The recent fluctuations in international crude oil prices were influenced by geopolitical risks and expectations of global supply surplus, leading to price volatility [3]. Historical Context - In 2025, domestic fuel prices underwent 25 adjustments, concluding with a "three consecutive declines," resulting in a total reduction of 915 yuan per ton for gasoline and 880 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the end of 2024 [6][7]. - The last two price reductions in December 2025 led to a cumulative decrease of 225 yuan per ton, bringing prices to a four-year low, with some regions seeing 95 octane gasoline drop below 7 yuan per liter [7]. Future Outlook - The next price adjustment window is set to open on January 20, 2026, at 24:00 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: Go long on the spread of FU2603/2605 at low prices (positive spread trading) [2] - Futures-cash: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The current real fundamentals of the fuel oil market have limited contradictions, and potential geopolitical risks should be noted [1] - During the New Year's Day holiday, the situation in Venezuela escalated, but it had limited direct impact on the crude oil market. Oil prices maintained a volatile trend, providing limited driving force for FU and LU [1] - The current fuel oil market has a mix of long and short factors, with limited overall driving force [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.73% at 2,479 yuan/ton in the daytime session, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.27% at 2,925 yuan/ton [1] - After the crack spread and premium of high-sulfur fuel oil declined, the marginal demand from refineries improved, and China's high-sulfur fuel oil imports have rebounded recently [1] - Potential upside risks come from the geopolitical level. If the supply disruption problem of Venezuelan oil persists, domestic refineries may increase their procurement demand for fuel oil. In addition, the Middle East also faces risks. If the supply in the Iranian region is disturbed by the geopolitical situation, it will have a more direct impact on the high-sulfur fuel oil market [1] - Regarding low-sulfur fuel oil, due to changes in the maintenance status of facilities (Azur and Dangote), there is an expectation of increased supply in Kuwait and Nigeria. However, the premium of gasoline and diesel will divert low-sulfur oil components through the RFCC unit, and the market pressure is currently limited [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: Go long on the spread of FU2603/2605 at low prices (positive spread trading) [2] - Futures-cash: None [2] - Options: None [2]

FICC日报 | 2026-01-07 沪指录得13连阳，金属普涨共振 市场分析 政策预期回摆。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行动；强调深入整治"内卷式" 竞争制定和实施；会议确认，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。后续继续提振消费， 以及推进"反内卷"的大方向并未发生变化，未来物价回升路径仍需关注供给侧的政策方向。2026年中国人民银行 工作会议1月5日-6日召开，会议强调，把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效 运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。随着国内系列重要会议的召开，以及美联储12月宣布重回"限制性"立场，后 续内外的政策预期存在回摆的风险，资产情绪和宏观有所背离。后续：一、关注国内具体政策出台情况；二、特 朗普宣布的美联储主席候选人。此外，元旦假期期间，地缘局势骤紧，在民粹主义和贸易保护主义思潮下，未来 全球局势动荡仍将是常态，商品的供给端风险以及宽松货币政策仍将是商品价格持续走高的决定性因素。1月6日， 沪指全天震荡上扬，录得13连阳走势，刷新十年多以来新高。 内外景气存在一定分化。10月以来，海外景气度持续回落， ...

| 日度美容 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 品种 | 股指进一步放量上涨,收日内最高点,预计延续偏强走势。拉长 | 周期来看,2026年股指有望在2025年基础上继续上行:宏观政策 | | | 持续发力、通胀温和回升或有助于改善企业盈利预期;资本市场 | 改革政策的引导有望为A股带来增量资金;同时中央汇金发挥"类 | 宏观金融。必 | 平准基金"作用,也将对市场形成支撑。策略上看,建议投资者 | | | | | 仍以择机布局多头仓位为主。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,近期关注 | 震荡 | 国 债 | 日本央行利率决策。 | | | | 近期矿端供应扰动升温,叠加宏观情绪好转,铜价进一步走高。 | 원미 | 近期国内电解铝有所累库,产业驱动有限,但宏观情绪向好,叠 | 加铝锭供应趋紧预期提前发酵,铝价有望维持偏强运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝供应端仍有较大释放空间,产业面偏弱施压价格,但当前 | 价格基本处于成本线附近,预计价格震荡运行。 ...