消息面上，中东局势持续紧张。据报道，特朗普倾向于在未来几天对伊朗发动首轮打击。若首轮打击效 果不佳，特朗普将考虑对伊朗发动更大规模袭击。卫星图像显示，美国在中东的战斗机数量激增。黄金 白银今日盘中同步拉升。现货黄金一度突破5150美元，涨1.20%；现货白银日内涨幅扩大至2.86%。 此外，多家大行上调黄金目标价。澳新银行预计，金价将在今年第二季度触及5800美元/盎司；杰富瑞 已将2026年黄金价格预测从4200美元上调至5000美元；瑞银则认为年中金价最高或触及6200美元/盎 司，主要支撑来自央行与投资需求、财政赤字扩大、美国实际利率下行以及地缘政治风险。 紫金矿业 紫金矿业 招金矿业 中国黄金国际 万国黄金集团 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 39.32 1.54 4.08% 4.66% 3.10% 1.56% 0.00% 1.56% 3.10% 4.66% 36.02 36.61 37.19 37.78 38.37 38.95 39.54 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 0 400万 800万 1201万 黄金股早盘集体高开，截至发稿，中国黄金（600916） ...

转自：新华财经 •Comerica Bank：美联储有可能在鲍威尔任期结束前一直维持利率不变 【机构分析】 •Comerica Bank首席经济学家比尔·亚当斯表示，美联储将在鲍威尔的任期于5月结束前保持短期利率不 变。美国经济增长面临的最大下行风险来自劳动力供应瓶颈，这可能会引发通货膨胀的反弹。 •英国投资者正等待英国央行货币政策委员会成员格林、泰勒、皮尔以及行长贝利今晚向议会财政委员 会发表证词。加拿大皇家银行资本市场策略师表示，市场将密切关注贝利的言论，以寻找英国央行降息 路径的线索，因为他是委员会中关键的摇摆票。 •市场调查显示，经济学家预测韩国央行将在2月26日会议上维持指标利率在2.50%不变，并预计2026年 全年将保持这一水平。政策制定者正面临韩元贬值压力与房地产市场持续过热的双重挑战。分析师指 出，韩国央行日益关注外汇与房地产风险，且经济复苏基础更为稳固，今年降息的可能性极低。若资产 价格持续走高并传导至房地产市场，央行或需考虑在2027年收紧政策以防范通胀风险。 •日本国债收益率周二跌至数周低点，跟随隔夜美国国债走势；在美国总统特朗普关税政策的不确定性 下，投资者买入避险债券。三井住友信托 ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 2月24日，当前的贵金属市场正处于多重利好因素的交汇点，尽管金价近期表现相对稳健，但 Mhmarkets迈汇认为，市场尚未完全消化地缘政治风险升级所带来的深远影响。随着中东局势的持续紧 绷，军事部署的规模已达到近年来罕见的正态分布，这种潜在的不确定性为黄金提供了坚实的底部支 撑。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，若将美联储明确的货币宽松路径与全球范围内激增的实物需求相结合，金价 在今年6月前有望在当前基础上再录得1000美元/盎司的涨幅，目标直指6200美元。 宏观层面的流动性转向是支撑金价上涨的另一核心支柱。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，尽管部分经济数据表现 出韧性，但通胀压力的整体放缓以及美联储内部立场向鸽派的倾斜，预示着降息周期仍有下半场。预计 到9月底，市场将迎来两次25个基点的利率下调。实际利率的走低与美元购买力的相对弱化，共同营造 了有利于硬资产估值扩张的环境。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，地缘政治震荡虽常引发短期波动，但在美联储 宽松周期的加持下，黄金作为投资组合对冲工具的需求将展现出更强的持续性。 从供需基本面来看，黄金市场的结构性失衡正在加剧。Mhmarkets ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Sentiment - The situation in Iran is escalating, leading to increased market anxiety and a rise in risk aversion among investors [2][12] - The U.S. has been deploying military forces in the Middle East and Europe, interpreted as a preemptive measure against potential conflict [2] - Diplomatic channels remain open, with U.S. and Iranian officials expected to continue talks in Geneva, although investor sentiment remains cautious [2][12] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil prices have surged to $71 per barrel, marking a six-month high due to geopolitical tensions [3][12] - The primary concern is not a decrease in Iranian oil production but the potential disruption of oil transport routes in the Persian Gulf, particularly the Strait of Hormuz [3] - The risk premium in oil prices is rising due to fears of systemic disruptions in global energy supply chains [3] Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - Gold and silver prices have risen significantly, with gold surpassing $5,170 per ounce and silver above $87 per ounce [5][13] - The strong demand for safe-haven assets is reflected in gold's nearly 8% increase over the past week, supported by geopolitical risks and uncertain interest rate paths [5][13] Group 4: Cryptocurrency Market Challenges - The cryptocurrency market is underperforming, with Bitcoin dropping to around $64,000, negatively impacting other major cryptocurrencies [6][14] - Contributing factors to this decline include a 15% increase in mining difficulty and reduced profitability for miners, leading some to sell Bitcoin reserves [7][14] - Bitdeer Technologies sold approximately 940 Bitcoins to cover operational costs, indicating supply-side pressure in the market [8][14] Group 5: Regulatory Developments - Despite weak price performance in cryptocurrencies, there are signs of marginal improvement in regulatory conditions, with discussions between U.S. banks and crypto firms nearing consensus [10][18] - The long-delayed Clarity Act may see substantial progress, potentially providing a clearer regulatory framework for the industry [18] Group 6: Market Outlook - The current market is characterized by geopolitical risks, with oil prices expected to remain strong due to transport risk premiums [11][18] - Precious metals are likely to maintain an upward trend supported by risk aversion [11][18] - Cryptocurrencies face short-term pressure from supply challenges and weakened sentiment [11][18] - Key variables to monitor include U.S.-Iran negotiations, safety of Persian Gulf transport, cryptocurrency mining activities, and U.S. regulatory developments [11][18]

Core Insights - Iran's crude oil loadings have reached multi-year highs this month, indicating a significant increase in oil exports amid rising geopolitical tensions [1] Industry Summary - The surge in Iran's crude loadings comes as geopolitical risks escalate, particularly in the context of ongoing nuclear negotiations with Washington [1]

2月24日，日本央行前政策委员会审议委员樱井诚表示，如果在定于本月举行的日美峰会前日元重新开 始下跌，日本央行最早可能在3月份加息。樱井诚周五在接受采访时称，高市早苗可能会寻求日本央行 帮助抑制日元贬值，因为上月华盛顿进行利率检查以支撑日元这一事实表明，美国倾向于日元兑美元走 强。"货币干预在对抗日元抛售压力方面只有暂时效果。应对日元疲软的最佳方式是日本央行加息，"樱 井诚表示。他与现任政策制定者保持着密切联系。樱井诚称，日元再次下滑将通过更高的进口成本推高 通胀，并部分抵消政府燃料补贴带来的下行压力。他补充说，如果需要应对日元急剧下跌，日本央行可 以通过指出企业与工会年度春季工资谈判中薪资强劲增长的前景，来为最快于3月加息提供理由。 另外，上个月金价一度突破每盎司5，500美元的历史新高，投资市场的需求肯定是推手之一，但最大的 买家无疑是各国央行。近年来，各国央行的购买行为直接推高了黄金价格，但近期金价的剧烈波动，可 能令这种需求暂时减缓。高盛大宗商品分析师Lina Thomas及Daan Struyven在上周的一份报告中指 出，"在与市场人士讨论的过程中，央行储备的管理人仍然愿意购买黄金来对冲地缘政治和 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Gold Exchange has adjusted the margin levels and price fluctuation limits for certain contracts to enhance market stability and risk management [1][2]. Group 1: Margin Adjustments - The margin ratio for Au (T+D), mAu (T+D), Au (T+N1), Au (T+N2), NYAuTN06, and NYAuTN12 contracts has been reduced from 21% to 18%, with the price fluctuation limit changing from 20% to 17% starting February 24 [1]. - The margin ratio for Ag (T+D) contracts has been decreased from 27% to 24%, and the fluctuation limit has been adjusted from 26% to 23% [1]. - The margin for CAu99.99 contracts has been modified from 200,000 yuan to 180,000 yuan per contract [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions - As of February 24, the spot gold price is at 5169 USD/ounce, and the spot silver price is at 88.07 USD/ounce, both remaining at recent high levels [2]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a 3.59% increase in gold T+D and a 13.97% increase in silver T+D as of the same date [2]. - The market is influenced by U.S. monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve indicating a cautious approach to new easing cycles until inflation trends stabilize [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, are contributing to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [4]. - UBS has maintained a positive outlook on gold, projecting a target price of 6200 USD/ounce in the coming months, driven by strong investment flows and central bank purchases [4].

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas sector has shown strong performance, with multiple oil ETFs leading the market on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, reflecting a significant increase in investor interest and market activity [1][4][10]. ETF Performance Summary - On February 24, a total of 919 ETFs rose, with the highest increase reaching 9.73%. The leading oil ETFs included: - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF (513350) increased by 9.73%, with a trading volume of 1.117 billion and a turnover rate of 152.76% [2][8]. - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF by Harvest Fund (159518) rose by 9.66%, with a trading volume of 1.546 billion and a turnover rate of 99.88% [2][8]. - Other notable increases included the Silverhua Oil & Gas ETF (563150) at 9.53% and the Bosera Oil & Gas ETF (561760) at 8.42% [6][7]. Market Trends - The oil and gas sector's strong performance is attributed to geopolitical risks and a tight supply-demand situation, leading to a significant rise in related stock prices and indices [10]. - The market is currently driven by geopolitical factors rather than supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of high volatility in oil prices in the near term [10]. ETF Index Tracking - There are four main oil and gas indices tracked by ETFs in the domestic market: - CSI Oil and Gas Resource Index (931248) - CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index (H30198) - National Oil and Gas Index (399439) - S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Select Industry Index (SPSIOP) [5][17]. - The ETFs tracking these indices have shown similar performance, with the same fee structure and relatively close year-to-date returns [19]. Investor Considerations - Investors are advised to be cautious as the S&P Oil & Gas ETF has issued a premium risk warning, indicating that its market price is significantly higher than its indicative net asset value (IOPV), which could lead to potential losses if investments are made blindly [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - During the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic copper market was closed, while the overseas copper market saw slight increases, with LME copper rising 0.33% and COMEX copper rising 1.29% [1]. - Market sentiment is affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical risks from the repeated Iran - US negotiations, the US plan to impose a 15% general tariff on the world after the Supreme Court's ruling, and the uncertainty of the Fed's policy path, which intensify the market's wait - and - see attitude [1]. - On the supply side, the long - term narrative of tight mine supply provides bottom support, and domestic refined copper production in December increased 11.9% year - on - year, with overall stable supply [1]. - On the demand side, post - holiday spot demand is expected to gradually improve as downstream processing enterprises resume work, but the actual demand recovery intensity needs time to be verified [1]. - Domestic social inventories increased significantly before the holiday, and LME copper inventories also rose sharply after the holiday, with continuous accumulation in COMEX copper inventories, increasing the pressure of visible inventories [1]. - In the short term, copper prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and the substantial recovery of post - holiday peak - season demand will be the key driving variable in the next stage, with attention needed on domestic inventory destocking rhythm and downstream resumption of work [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - During the Spring Festival, domestic copper market was closed, and overseas copper prices rose slightly (LME copper +0.33%, COMEX copper +1.29%). Market sentiment is affected by geopolitical risks, US tariff policy, and Fed policy uncertainty. Supply is stable with long - term mine supply tightness, and December refined copper production increased 11.9% year - on - year. Post - holiday demand is expected to improve, but actual recovery needs verification. Visible inventories have increased, and short - term copper prices are expected to be volatile, with post - holiday demand recovery as a key factor [1]. 3.2 Factors to Watch - US tariff policy changes and post - holiday demand recovery are important factors. Weekly data shows that the price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai increased 0.65% (from 99,625 to 100,275 yuan/ton), the electrolytic copper premium in Shanghai decreased 120% (from 25 to - 5 yuan/ton), the clean copper concentrate forward spot comprehensive index (TC) decreased 0.08% (- 0.04 to - 51.17 dollars/dry ton), the oxygen - free copper rod price increased 0.03% (from 101,240 to 101,270 yuan/ton), LME copper inventories increased 31.95% (from 183,275 to 241,825 tons), SHFE copper inventories increased 9.47% (from 248,911 to 272,475 tons), and COMEX copper inventories increased 1.93% (from 589,081 to 600,436 short tons) [1][2]. 3.3 This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - No detailed content provided other than the title [3] 3.4 Futures Market Review - Figures of the Shanghai copper market trend, London copper market trend, and the Shanghai - London ratio (without excluding exchange rate) are provided, but no specific analysis content [4][5][7] 3.5 Supply Situation Analysis - Figures related to copper concentrate forward spot prices, rough copper spot processing average prices, copper concentrate port inventories, domestic electrolytic copper production, electrolytic copper and scrap copper price change trends, and main market refined - scrap price differences are presented, but no specific analysis [11][13] 3.6 Demand Situation Analysis - Figures of 1 electrolytic copper premium in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rates, refined copper rod trading volumes, Yangshan copper bonded premiums, and electrolytic copper warehouse receipt bill of lading premiums are provided, but no specific analysis [14][15][17] 3.7 Inventory Situation Analysis - Figures of electrolytic copper spot inventories and inventories of three major futures exchanges are presented, but no specific analysis [22][23]

记者今天从国家发展改革委了解到，2月24日24时国内成品油零售调价将开启上调窗口。据国家发展改革委价格监测中心监测，本轮成品油调价周期内（2 月3日—2月23日）国际油价震荡上行。 2月24日24时起，国内汽、柴油零售限价每吨分别上调175元、170元。全国平均来看：92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油分别上调0.14元、0.15元、0.14元。 央视财经记者给您算了笔账，用92号汽油加满50升油箱将多花7元。 本轮成品油调价周期国际油价震荡上行 调价周期内，地缘政治风险上升主导国际油价震荡上行。一是美伊紧张局势骤然升级。伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡开展军事演习，一度关闭部分海域，而美方持 续在中东地区增派军事力量，加剧市场恐慌情绪。二是俄乌会谈进展缓慢。俄乌在日内瓦举行的最新和平会谈仅持续两小时便结束，未取得任何突破性进 展，相互军事打击仍在持续，和谈前景艰难且不确定。此外，美国冬季风暴导致原油产量下滑，加之美国原油库存超预期大幅下降，进一步提振油价。调 价周期内，布伦特原油期货价格一度升至72美元，为2025年7月以来高位。 国家发展改革委价格监测中心预计，地缘局势变化仍是加剧当前国际油价波动的主要因素。美伊局势面临高 ...