热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/4/29 | 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,210 | -27↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1332134 | -28759↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 110,790 | -13756↓ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -21 | +7↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 347020 | -2653↓ HC2505-RB2505合约价差(元/吨) | 110 | +2↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,280.00 | -40.00↓ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,290.00 | -10.00↓ | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,320.00 | -20.00↓ 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,220.00 | -20.00↓ | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 70. ...

华夏时报记者刘诗萌北京报道 近日，美国向全球多国推出一系列规模大、范围广、破坏性强的关税政策，对全球经济秩序稳定造成严 重冲击。面对不确定性加剧的外部环境，中国在一季度经济开门红的基础上，将采取哪些措施继续保持 经济平稳运行、实现今年5%的发展目标，更是全世界关注的焦点。 4月25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议要求统筹国内经济工作 和国际经贸斗争，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变 化的不确定性。不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱，既定政策早出台早见效，根据形势变化及时推出 增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节，全力巩固经济发展和社会稳定的基本面。 28日，国新办举行新闻发布会，发改委、商务部、央行、人力资源部等部门在会上发布了稳就业稳经济 推动高质量发展的若干举措，主要包括支持就业、稳定外贸发展、促进消费、积极扩大有效投资和营造 稳定发展的良好环境五个方面。其中明确提出，将陆续下达1400亿元左右消费品以旧换新资金、实施育 儿补贴制度、定向增发购车指标、支持城区常住人口300万以上的城市特别是超大特大城市建设停车位 等等。 另外，在扩大投 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow consolidation with individual stocks being relatively active, as the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% to 3287.45 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.09% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.05% [1][2] - The total trading volume for A-shares reached 657.55 billion yuan during the half-day session [1] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 340.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.50%, with a net injection of 120 billion yuan for the day after 220.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [2] Regulatory Actions - The National Development and Reform Commission, in collaboration with the Ministry of Commerce and the State Administration for Market Regulation, announced a campaign to eliminate unreasonable market access barriers, aiming to create a fair market environment and support the construction of a unified national market [3] Sector Performance - PEEK materials concept stocks saw significant gains, with companies like Juhua and Xinhang New Materials hitting the daily limit [3] - The chemical and environmental protection sector also performed well, with United Chemical reaching a historical high [3] - The computing power industry chain continued its rebound, with Hongbo shares achieving three consecutive limits [3] Notable Companies - **Water Co., Ltd.**: The company has overcome raw material constraints for its key product LCP, benefiting from growth in sectors such as new energy vehicles and AI computing [7] - **Plit**: As a leading player in the modified plastics industry, the company has made rapid advancements in semi-solid battery technology [7] - **Zhongjian Technology**: Recognized as a leader in high-end carbon fiber for aerospace, the company has broken through production capacity bottlenecks [8] - **Everbright Tongchuang**: Initially focused on laptop casing applications, the company is now expanding into the foldable smartphone market [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 5.9% to 8.449 billion yuan for 2024, but a significant decline in net profit of 242.0% to -151 million yuan, aligning with previous performance forecasts [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 reached 8.449 billion yuan, with a net profit decline to -151 million yuan, primarily due to a 390 million yuan credit impairment loss and increased marketing expenses for brand promotion [1] - The gross profit margin decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 36.9%, attributed to a shift in business structure with a higher proportion of lower-margin exports [3] - The operating expense ratio increased by 0.7 percentage points to 35.0%, driven by a rise in sales expenses due to enhanced marketing efforts for the company's own brand [3] Group 2: Market and Product Insights - The company achieved a 6.7% increase in overseas revenue to 6.75 billion yuan, with European revenue growing by 20.35% to 1.96 billion yuan, while North American revenue saw a slight decline of 1.14% to 4.33 billion yuan [2] - Domestic revenue increased by 3.55% to 1.482 billion yuan, with steady progress in online and offline channel development [2] - In terms of product performance, mattress revenue rose by 11.0% to 4.415 billion yuan, while sofa revenue increased by 1.2% to 1.155 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Valuation - The company is expected to see improvements in revenue and profit by 2025, supported by a leading global production capacity and a focus on brand and channel development in the domestic market [1] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 271 million yuan, 375 million yuan, and 482 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.47, 0.66, and 0.85 yuan [4] - The target price for the company is set at 8.93 yuan, based on a 19 times PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's strong global production capabilities and potential demand recovery [4]

Group 1 - The State Council is implementing policies to stabilize employment and promote high-quality economic development, including support for industrial software and investment in consumer infrastructure [1] - A total of over 160 billion yuan has been allocated for the consumption upgrade program, with an additional 140 billion yuan expected to be distributed, resulting in over 720 billion yuan in sales driven by the program [1] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to expand and enhance the consumption upgrade program and will initiate pilot reforms in automotive circulation [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security is implementing a "combination punch" of employment policies, including subsidies and training programs, with 66.7 billion yuan in central employment support funds already allocated [2] - The government aims to reduce unemployment and work injury insurance rates while enhancing public employment services [2]

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-04-28 工企利润回暖 ——中国盈利系列十 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 宏观事件 4 月 27 日周日，国家统计局公布数据显示，1—3 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利 润总额 15093.6 亿元，同比增长 0.8%。 核心观点 ■ 营收压力仍存 总量：利润增速回升，需求端压力仍存。2025年 1-3月，全国规模以上工业企业利润总 额同比增长 0.8%，扭转了 2024 年三季度以来的持续下滑趋势，其中 3 月单月利润增速 回升至 2.6%，较 1-2 月的-0.3%显著改善。这一回升一方面得益于政策驱动效应逐步释 放，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策（"两新"政策）推动装备制造业利润同比 增长 7.6%，对工业利润增长的贡献率达 40%以上，成为核心拉动力量。另一方面海外 订单回升带动出口依赖型行业（如电子设备、船舶制造）利润增长，1-3 月电子行业利 润增长 3.2%，铁路船舶运输设备增长 14.2%；同时，消费品制造业利润增长 7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing various measures to stabilize employment and boost economic growth, with a focus on enhancing consumer spending and addressing external risks. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumer Spending - In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous year. March saw a growth of 5.9%, the fastest monthly increase since last year. The contribution rate of consumption reached 51.7%, up by 7.2 percentage points from the previous year [1][3]. Group 2: Policy Measures to Enhance Consumption - The Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce detailed measures to enhance consumption's role in economic growth, focusing on four key areas: 1. **Trade-in Programs**: The budget for trade-in programs has doubled to 300 billion yuan, expanding support categories from 8 to 12, including new subsidies for digital products. As of April 27, over 281.4 million vehicles and 49.4 million home appliances have been traded in, generating over 720 billion yuan in sales [3][4]. 2. **Automobile Consumption Reform**: The Ministry will support pilot programs for automobile consumption reform, encouraging innovation in new and used car markets, and optimizing purchase restrictions to meet consumer demand [4]. 3. **Service Consumption Improvement**: Initiatives to enhance service consumption include a 2025 action plan and various programs aimed at promoting health and tourism services, with a notable increase in senior tourism train services [5]. 4. **"Buy in China" Campaign**: Launched on April 13, this campaign aims to promote local shopping and tourism, targeting both domestic and international consumers [5].

Group 1 - The transportation industry in Guangzhou shows steady growth in Q1 2025, driven by Spring Festival travel and growth stabilization policies, with airport passenger throughput exceeding 20 million [2] - Guangzhou Baiyun Airport, now the only four-runway airport in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, achieved a passenger throughput of 20.06 million and cargo throughput of 560,000 tons, with international passenger volume increasing by 26.1% [3] - The port's foreign trade cargo throughput reached 46.48 million tons, a significant increase of 16.9%, with foreign trade container throughput growing by 22.5%, marking it as a key growth driver [4] Group 2 - The logistics efficiency in Guangzhou has improved, with total freight volume reaching 212 million tons and freight turnover increasing by 6.9% to 5.525 trillion ton-kilometers [5] - The express delivery business saw a robust growth of 16.2%, completing 3.527 billion packages in Q1 2025, supported by rapid production recovery and increased online consumption [5] - The passenger transport network is undergoing a transformation, with total passenger volume at 80.45 million, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, while rail and air travel saw increases [6] Group 3 - Guangzhou's urban public transport structure is evolving, with the metro system facilitating 782 million trips, accounting for 73.7% of the city's public transport volume, marking a 3.2% increase [7]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to implement measures to stabilize employment and promote high-quality economic development, including targeted issuance of car purchase quotas for key groups and the establishment of a childcare subsidy system [1] - The People's Bank of China will consider timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, and create new structural monetary policy tools, while maintaining that single market fluctuations have a limited impact on foreign exchange reserves [1] - The Ministry of Commerce reports that the implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy has stimulated consumption by over 720 billion yuan [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security indicates that 3.08 million new urban jobs were created in the first quarter, with plans to accelerate policies supporting job expansion for enterprises [1]

创新：技术储备构筑长期壁垒 具体来看，报告期内，格力电器产品品类不断丰富，多个品类家电深受市场青睐，零售额和零售量位居 行业前列。欧睿国际（Euromonitor）发布数据显示，格力位列 2024 年全球分体式空调零售量第一。奥 维云网数据显示，2024 年格力品牌家用空调线上零售额份额为25.40%，位居行业第一；电风扇线上零 售额份额为13.01%，位居行业第二；电暖器线上零售额份额为9.66%，位居行业第三；空气能热水器线 上零售额份额为17.45%，位居行业第三。 格力电器表示，2025年一季度以稳健业绩实现"开门红"，离不开核心技术的突破与产品的迭代创新。 4月27日，格力电器发布2024年年度报告及2025年第一季度报告。数据显示，公司2024年全年实现营业 总收入1900.38亿元，同比下降7.31%；归母净利润321.85亿元，同比增长10.91%，盈利能力持续提升。 2025年一季度营业总收入达416.39亿元，归母净利润达59.04亿元，同比分别增长13.78%和26.29%，以 稳健业绩实现"开门红"。 此外，2024年度，格力电器拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利20元（含税），再加上去 ...