财政政策

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政治局会议后货币政策走向:适度宽松不变,降准降息表述淡出
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 10:37
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meeting emphasizes the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, with a focus on implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [1][2] - The monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose orientation, with an emphasis on ensuring ample liquidity and promoting a decline in the comprehensive financing costs for society [1][2] - The meeting did not directly mention "timely interest rate cuts," but introduced a new expression regarding the goal of "promoting the decline of social comprehensive financing costs" [1][2] Group 2 - The focus on utilizing existing structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade is highlighted [2] - Analysts suggest that the necessity for new large-scale incremental policies, including interest rate cuts, has decreased due to the stable external economic environment and the observation period following previous rate cuts [2][3] - There is an expectation that the central bank may consider further interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions if necessary, to create a favorable financial environment for large-scale government bond issuance and credit allocation [3]
学习7月政治局会议精神:增强政策灵活性预见性
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-30 10:26
Economic Overview - The political bureau meeting on July 30, 2025, acknowledged the economic growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5%[1] - The meeting highlighted ongoing risks and challenges in the economy, necessitating continued macro policy support and effectiveness[1] Policy Directions - Macro policies are to "continue to exert force and timely increase strength," maintaining the focus on "stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations" as key objectives[1] - The meeting emphasized the need for policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight[1] Demand Expansion - Policies to expand domestic demand will focus on two growth points in service consumption: general consumption and elderly/childcare consumption[1] - For general consumption, service consumption subsidies may replace "old-for-new" subsidies, potentially driving an additional 70 billion yuan in consumption annually, accounting for approximately 0.15% of social retail sales[1] Industrial Policy - The meeting stressed the importance of optimizing market competition order and addressing disorderly competition among enterprises[2] - The approach to capacity reduction will be guided rather than enforced, focusing on market-driven methods to minimize economic shocks[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will prioritize structural support rather than broad easing, with a focus on supporting technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade[2] - The potential introduction of policy financial tools is anticipated, with a timeline similar to previous years, aiming to support various sectors including traditional infrastructure and technology[2] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal measures in the first half of the year showed a 3.4% increase in expenditures, indicating a proactive fiscal stance[2] - The actual deficit rate for the first half reached 3.9%, suggesting significant fiscal effort, although further total policy increases may not be necessary unless economic pressures escalate in the latter half[2] Financial Market - The meeting called for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to sustain its recovery momentum[2] - This involves institutional innovation and market opening to better allocate resources and support various enterprises[2] Real Estate Policy - While not a primary focus, the meeting underscored the importance of implementing urban renewal and improving the real estate development model[2] - Future policies may include optimizing existing regulations and promoting urban renewal projects to stimulate housing demand[2] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential downturns in the real estate market, trade tensions, and the effectiveness of consumption stimulus measures[2]
宏观政策和产业政策应协同推进房地产止跌走稳|宏观晚6点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 10:15
国家发改委就《政府投资基金布局规划和投向工作指引(公开征求意见稿)》向社会公开征求意见。意见稿提出,设立政府投资基金要落实建设全国统一大 市场部署要求,不以招商引资为目的,鼓励降低或取消返投比例。政府投资基金投向要符合国家生产力布局宏观调控要求,避免投资于存在结构性矛盾的产 业,在新兴产业领域防止盲目跟风、一哄而上,支持有关行业企业实施兼并重组,加快技术更新换代,推动产业提质升级。 政治局会议强调培育服务消费新增长点 宏观要闻 政治局会议要求宏观政策持续发力 据新华社消息,中共中央政治局周三召开会议,分析研究当前经济形势,部署下半年经济工作。对于接下来的政策走向,会议指出,宏观政策要持续发力、 适时加力。具体来看,会议提到,要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用,提高资金使用效 率。兜牢基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保持流动性充裕,促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策工具,加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微 企业、稳定外贸等。 发改委将加强政府投资基金投向调控 中共中央政治局会议强调,要有效释放内需潜力。深入实施提振消费专项行动,在扩大商品消费的同时, ...
中共中央政治局会议:货币政策要保持流动性充裕,促进社会综合融资成本下行
news flash· 2025-07-30 06:08
Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasizes the need for sustained and timely macroeconomic policy support, focusing on more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy - The government aims to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve the efficiency of fund usage [1] - There is a commitment to ensure the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level, which likely refers to ensuring basic living standards, employment, and education [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will maintain ample liquidity to promote a decline in the overall financing costs for society [1] - The use of various structural monetary policy tools will be enhanced to support technological innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [1] Group 3: Economic Strategy - The meeting highlights the importance of major economic provinces playing a significant role in driving economic growth [1] - There is a call for strengthening the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation to ensure effective implementation [1]
IMF:大幅调高中国今年经济增速预期
天天基金网· 2025-07-30 05:12
Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) describes the global economic situation as "maintaining fragile resilience amid ongoing uncertainty," with projected growth rates for 2025 and 2026 slightly increased compared to previous forecasts [1][3]. Economic Growth Projections - The IMF forecasts global economic growth rates of 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, reflecting an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from earlier predictions [1]. - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow at rates of 4.1% and 4.0% in 2025 and 2026, with China's growth rate for 2025 adjusted up by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% [7]. Inflation Expectations - Global inflation is projected to decline, with rates expected to reach 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, although significant disparities exist among different economies [1][10]. - The IMF anticipates that U.S. inflation will remain above the 2% target level, while inflation in the Eurozone is expected to be more moderate [10]. Trade Volume Adjustments - The IMF has raised its 2025 global trade volume forecast by 0.9 percentage points but lowered the 2026 forecast by 0.6 percentage points, citing increased uncertainty in trade policies [4]. - A weaker dollar is expected to amplify tariff impacts rather than mitigate them, with U.S. fiscal policies potentially offsetting some negative effects on the current account balance [4][5]. Fiscal Vulnerabilities - The IMF warns of increasing global fiscal vulnerabilities, with some economies, including Brazil, France, and the U.S., projected to face significant fiscal deficits amid historically high public debt levels [5]. - Concerns over fiscal sustainability may lead to increased term premiums, particularly in the U.S., tightening global financial conditions and potentially causing market volatility [5].
宁证期货: 美印关税悬而未决 金价震荡待指引
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-30 04:15
美联储理事阿德里亚娜·库格勒早些时候表示,美国央行不应在"一段时间内"降息,因为特朗普政府关 税的影响开始在消费者价格中显现。库格勒补充说,限制性货币政策对于保持通胀心理是至关重要的。 随着全球贸易局势的不断变化,加拿大与美国之间的贸易关系再次成为焦点。尽管两国正在努力达成一 项新的贸易协议,以缓解当前的关税争端,但经济学家们警告,加拿大的经济前景依然笼罩在不确定性 的阴云之下。即使短期内能够达成协议,未来的挑战——尤其是《美墨加协定》(USMCA)的审议 ——仍可能对加拿大经济造成深远影响。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示,美国和中国将在两周内的最后期限前继续就维持关税休战进行谈 判,特朗普将对任何延期做出最终决定。贝森特淡化了特朗普拒绝延期的任何预期。 中国财政部长蓝佛安周二表示,中国将加大财政支持力度,以提振国内消费,缓解日益加剧的经济逆 风。他强调,中国发展环境的不确定性正在增加,北京将采取更加积极的财政政策来帮助稳定增长。 美国和欧盟周日达成了一项框架贸易协议,对大多数欧洲商品征收15%的关税,并将于8月1日生效。据 彭博称,这笔交易结束了长达数月的僵局。 【黄金期货行情表现】 7月30日,沪金主力 ...
基建投资增速放缓系短期扰动 四季度有望显著加速
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-07-29 21:59
今年上半年,国家统计局统计口径下的狭义基础设施建设投资(不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应 业)同比增长4.6%,较前5个月回落1个百分点。6月基建投资增速的放缓成为拉低上半年增速的主因, 多个基建高频指标同步走弱。 专项债支持传统基建比例下降 基建投资由政府主导。上半年,全国发行新增地方政府专项债券2.16万亿元,同比增长45%,发行使用 进度明显加快。为何较大规模的新增专项债券未能支撑6月基建投资增速走稳?浙商证券(601878)宏 观联席首席分析师廖博向记者指出,6月基建投资增速回落主要系置换债券发行高峰已过,叠加城投债 净融资偏低和天气因素扰动,导致基建分项中公共设施管理业(市政工程)增速继续回落,拖累狭义基 建增速。 实际上,前4个月地方政府债券发行主要以置换债券为主,5月新增专项债券发行虽然开始提速,但廖博 指出,专项债券资金拨付到项目开工环节、项目申报发行环节,均有可能出现暂时性的堵点,对实物工 作量的产出造成影响。 在受访专家看来,极端天气与价格因素阶段性影响基建投资增速,上半年财政对基建投资的支持力度相 对近年偏弱。随着下半年财政加大稳增长力度,新一批的重大项目开工,叠加新型政策性金融工具等 ...
财政专题分析报告:财政数据背后的宏观线索
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-29 15:17
Group 1: Tax Revenue Insights - Personal income tax (PIT) increased by 8% year-on-year in the first half of the year, despite overall tax revenue declining by 1.2%[3] - Value-added tax (VAT) grew by 2.8%, while corporate income tax (CIT) saw a decline of 1.9%[7] - Non-tax revenue turned negative, with a 3.7% year-on-year decrease in June, primarily due to reduced contributions from state-owned assets and improved business environment leading to lower fees and penalties[28] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure and Investment Trends - General fiscal expenditure rose by 17.6% year-on-year in June, significantly up from 5.3% for infrastructure investment, which fell by 3.9% compared to the previous month[4] - The acceleration in fiscal spending is largely attributed to a one-time injection of special bonds into commercial banks, with actual growth being slower when excluding this factor[34] - Special bonds are increasingly being used for debt repayment, with 46.7% of newly issued bonds in July allocated for this purpose, compared to only 41.7% for project construction[51] Group 3: Future Fiscal Outlook - The fiscal revenue and expenditure are expected to face pressure in the second half, with projected year-on-year growth rates of -4.5% for revenue and 1.5% for expenditure[5] - The anticipated budget gap for the year is estimated at 516.6 billion yuan for revenue and 547.2 billion yuan for expenditure, with limited necessity for additional deficits[5] - The government plans to utilize fiscal reserves, including the budget stabilization fund and profits from central financial enterprises, to cover a projected 120 billion yuan shortfall due to new subsidies[69]
CF40财政政策正在成为影响内需的关键
2025-07-29 02:10
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The analysis focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its **fiscal policy** impacts on domestic demand, particularly in the context of the post-pandemic recovery period. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fiscal Policy and Economic Performance Correlation**: Since 2023, there has been a significant positive correlation between the intensity of China's fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance, a trend not observed before the pandemic [1][4][27]. 2. **Three Key Periods of Fiscal Impact**: - **First Period (2023-2024)**: Initial fiscal stimulus led to a temporary economic recovery, but as fiscal spending slowed, economic momentum weakened [4][5]. - **Second Period (2024)**: Following a strong start to fiscal spending, a decline in fiscal outlays led to a synchronized downturn in economic indicators, with consumption and non-real estate investment both declining [5][6]. - **Third Period (2024-2025)**: A shift to more aggressive fiscal policies stabilized economic indicators, with fiscal spending growth rebounding significantly, leading to a recovery in consumption and non-real estate investment [6][27]. 3. **Post-Pandemic Economic Cycle**: China has entered its first economic cycle since joining the WTO that does not rely on real estate as a growth driver, marking the end of the traditional growth model [2][29]. 4. **Increased Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy**: The impact coefficient of fiscal spending on domestic demand has more than doubled post-2023 compared to pre-2020, indicating a stronger direct effect on consumption [1][17][20]. 5. **Decline of Fiscal Crowding-Out Effect**: The weakening of the fiscal crowding-out effect has enhanced the stimulative role of fiscal spending on domestic demand, especially in a low nominal interest rate environment [2][30]. 6. **Real Estate Market Adjustments**: The deep adjustment in the real estate market has diminished the traditional transmission mechanism of monetary policy, although monetary policy remains crucial for creating a conducive environment for fiscal policy [2][31][32]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Methodology for Analysis**: The study utilized a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to analyze the transmission mechanisms of fiscal policy on domestic demand, confirming the findings from linear regression analyses [23][24]. 2. **Data Handling Techniques**: The analysis involved seasonal adjustments and standardization of data to ensure comparability across different periods [12][13][14]. 3. **Future Implications**: The findings suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating domestic demand will depend on the continuity and stability of fiscal expansion, as well as the evolving economic environment post-pandemic [30][32]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the evolving role of fiscal policy in shaping China's economic landscape, particularly in the context of a shifting growth paradigm away from real estate dependency.
年中经济观察|充分释放财政政策推动高质量发展的效能
Xin Hua She· 2025-07-29 01:36
积极发挥财政政策推动发展"进"的关键作用。持续强化对教育和科技的支持,上半年教育、科学技术支 出同比增长5.9%、9.1%;完善各项惠企助企政策;进一步完善横向生态保护补偿机制……今年以来, 财政更加着力"增后劲",推动高质量发展"成色"更足。当前,"十五五"规划正在谋划,要更加聚焦经济 社会发展的薄弱领域和关键环节,更加注重提升未来潜在增长率,优化财政政策供给,加强财政政策储 备,为高质量发展提供更加给力的"真金白银"和政策保障。 推动财政政策效能充分释放,还要加强政策协同、形成工作合力。加强财政政策与货币、就业、产业、 区域等政策的协同联动,这样才能"五指成拳"形成合力,放大政策叠加效应。要统筹财政政策与其他政 策制定和执行的全过程,提升政策目标、工具、时机、力度、节奏的匹配度,确保同向发力。各级相关 部门应加强沟通对接,确保把准政策意图,靶向精准施策,让政策落实"最后一公里"和政策制定"最先 一公里"更好贯通起来。 财政政策是宏观调控的关键工具。近年来,在世界经济复苏乏力的大背景下,财政政策在很多国家宏观 调控工具箱中的主体地位日益凸显,成为推动经济行稳致远的关键手段。 积极发挥财政政策护航经济"稳"的 ...