财报季歇歇脚，险资转头继续扫货！ 港交所披露易最新信息显示，平安人寿于5月9日、12日分别增持2329万股邮储银行H股、1.47亿股农业银行H 股股份后，分别达到两家银行H股股本的10%，根据港交所规则，触发举牌。 此前，平安人寿曾在1月8日、2月17日分别举牌邮储银行H股、农行H股，持股数量占两家银行H股总数突破 5%。这意味着，平安人寿分别在4个月内、3个月内分别二度举牌两家大行。 截至目前，2025年已有13家上市公司被险资举牌，包括5家银行。其中，招商银行、邮储银行、农业银行均被 二度举牌。 值得注意的是，近期银行股行情火热，昨日（5月14日）各大银行股全线上涨，A股银行板块总市值突破10万 亿元大关。 再度举牌两家大行 据披露易信息，早在1月8日，平安人寿就举牌过邮储银行H股，所持该行H股数量当时就达到该行H股股本的 5%。 到5月9日，平安人寿又耗资约1.12亿港元，在场内增持2329万股邮储银行H股，持股占比突破该行H股总数的 10%，构成二度举牌。 以此计算，1月8日至5月9日，平安人寿合计增持近10.08亿股邮储银行H股。以区间成交均价计，其间合计耗资 近50亿港元。 截至5月9日，平安人寿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Alumina, Aluminium, Tin, PTA, Short - fiber [1] - **Bearish**: Zinc, Manganese Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand, Crude Oil [1] - **Oscillating**: Equity Index, Gold, Copper, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Silicon Iron, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Printing, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Cotton, Bean Meal, Pulp, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, BR Rubber, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The results of the Sino - US trade talks exceeded market expectations, which improved market risk appetite and had a positive impact on multiple varieties, but short - term operations still need to be cautious [1]. - The weak economy and asset shortage are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged, while silver may be more resilient in the short term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Equity Index**: Yesterday, large - cap stocks led the rise. Observe whether small and medium - cap stocks can achieve resonance and make up for the rise. In a structural market, long - position investors should be cautious [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: The short - term gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - **Silver**: Generally follows gold. Unexpected tariff results will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term silver price may be more resilient than gold [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The joint statement of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, which is positive for copper prices. However, the copper price has rebounded significantly recently, so be cautious about chasing high in the short term [1]. - **Aluminium and Alumina**: Aluminium prices continue to rebound. Alumina supply has increased, the supply - demand pattern has improved, and the short - term price may further rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and the inflow of imported goods has weakened the fundamentals. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The US inflation cooled more than expected, and the Sino - US talks results exceeded expectations. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and there are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines. Nickel prices will oscillate in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel. Stainless steel futures will oscillate and rebound in the short term, but there is still supply pressure in the long term [1]. - **Tin**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, tin prices are expected to rebound. Continuously pay attention to the resumption of production in low - grade mines [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strengthening, demand is weakening, it has entered a low - valuation range, and the demand and inventory pressure have not been alleviated [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low due to the futures discounting the spot [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, inventory has continued to accumulate, and downstream buyers still maintain rigid demand purchases [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in the window period of switching from the peak season to the off - season. The cost is loose, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the driving force for price rebound is insufficient [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation that pig iron production will peak, and pay attention to the pressure on steel products [1]. - **Manganese Ore**: There is still an expectation of decline due to the expected excess of manganese ore, and the pressure of warehouse receipts is heavy [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand has become tight [1]. - **Printing**: The supply - demand is weak, and with the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price will continue to be weak [1]. - **Soda Ash**: There are many maintenance operations in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is excess supply in the medium term, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand is relatively excessive, and they are short - allocated in the sector. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 positive spread [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: The rise of crude oil and US biodiesel news drove the rise of palm oil. The Sino - US talks may drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. After the crude oil price falls, consider short - selling palm oil. The Sino - US talks are expected to be negative for soybean oil in terms of sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side operations [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit. The Sino - Canadian relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it may lead to a large decline. Consider buying volatility [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro - uncertainty is still strong. The domestic cotton textile industry has entered the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak oscillating trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar production [1]. - **Corn**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the import corn auction has a negative impact on sentiment. The port inventory has decreased but is still at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the CO7 - C01 positive spread [1]. - **Bean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market is still digesting the pressure of spot and Brazilian selling, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the Sino - US trade negotiations on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand**: The shipping volume from New Zealand has decreased, the terminal demand is still weak, and the overall bearish pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to short after a rebound [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The pig inventory is continuously recovering, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is generally good. The futures price is at a large discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the pace of future production capacity release and wait for spot price guidance [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil**: The results of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. There is a demand for rebound and repair after the previous sharp decline [1]. - **Bitumen**: The cost is dragging down, the inventory accumulation slope has decreased, and the demand is slowly recovering [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The tariff negotiation is beneficial, and the cost is strongly supported. It will be strong in the short term, but there is a risk of price decline in the long term due to loose fundamentals and weak demand [1]. - **PTA**: The PX device is under intensive maintenance, the procurement demand for PX has increased, and the high load of polyester has supported the demand for PTA [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol device is under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, the basis has dropped rapidly, and market sentiment has subsided [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The slightly tight situation of PTA strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high - basis situation [1]. - **Styrene**: The improvement of Sino - US tariff policies has stimulated market speculative demand, the pure benzene price has gradually strengthened, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1]. - **Urea**: There are still positive expectations in the market, the downstream follow - up is okay, and the market negotiation focus has risen. However, due to price stability policies, the upward price space is limited [1]. - **Methanol**: The basis is strengthening, and the short - term price will oscillate strongly. The medium - long - term spot market may change from strong to weak oscillation [1]. - **PE, PP, PVC**: Macro - factors are positive, and they will oscillate strongly. PVC has a weak fundamental but may rebound in the short term [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, but the macro - positive factors support the futures price, which will oscillate [1]. - **Propane and Butane**: The CP has decreased, the MB has increased, and the regional price difference of propane has narrowed. Butane is in the seasonal off - season [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Insurance institutions have been reducing their holdings of bank capital bonds since Q2 2024, and this behavior is not the decisive factor for the trend of bank capital bonds. Instead, fund and other trading - type institutions play a key role in determining the credit spread trend of bank capital bonds [1][3][49] - 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness and can be bought during price adjustments, as there is potential for spread compression and they can provide good coupon income [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Recent Reasons for Insurance's Net Selling of Bank Capital Bonds 3.1.1 Changes in Insurance Allocation Behavior Since Q2 2024 - From 2021 - 2023, insurance institutions significantly increased their holdings of bank capital bonds, with secondary - market net purchases of about 148.1 billion, 222.3 billion, and 396.5 billion yuan respectively. However, since Q2 2024, they have shifted to net selling, with quarterly net sales of 5 - 7.5 billion yuan from Q2 - Q4 2024. In 2025, they had a small net purchase of 1.12 billion yuan in Q1 and a net sale of 5.57 billion yuan in April [11] - Insurance institutions, as typical allocation - based investors, usually buy when prices are down and sell when prices are up. Generally, the scale of their daily net purchases of other types of bonds (mainly bank capital bonds) is positively correlated with the credit spread of 5Y AAA - second - tier capital bonds. But since Q4 2023, this correlation has been negative in some periods [12] - The reasons for continuous reduction and reverse operations may be: the decreasing yield of bank capital bonds in recent years, making their relative cost - effectiveness low; sufficient supply of local government bonds, leading insurance institutions to prefer them; and under the new accounting standards, insurance institutions are more cautious about bank capital bonds due to high valuation volatility [18][22][33] 3.1.2 Insurance's Reduction in April May Be Due to a Combination of Cost - effectiveness and Valuation Stability Considerations - Since March, insurance has had a weak willingness to allocate bank capital bonds, especially with continuous large - scale reductions since mid - to late March. However, the recovery of bank capital bonds was not strong, and it was abnormal to sell on the basis of cost - effectiveness alone [2][39] - In April, there were many uncertainties such as tariff, fundamentals, and policies. To avoid account valuation fluctuations, insurance reduced bank capital bonds and increased the allocation of interest - rate bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit [2][40] - In April, the issuance scale of state - owned and joint - stock bank capital bonds increased significantly, and some insurance institutions may have "sold short - term bonds and bought long - term bonds" [43] 3.2 Insurance Allocation Behavior Does Not Determine the Trend of Bank Capital Bonds - The motives for insurance institutions to reduce bank capital bonds still exist: the spread center of long - term large - bank capital bonds is unlikely to rise systematically; local government bond supply is unlikely to shrink; and all insurance companies will implement new accounting standards in early 2026 [3][47] - The impact of insurance institutions' reduction on the bank capital bond market may be limited. Currently, their holding scale is small, and they usually adopt a passive allocation strategy of buying more when prices fall, which can play a "stabilizer" role but has little impact on the market trend. Fund and other trading - type institutions are the decisive factors for the credit spread trend of bank capital bonds [47][49] 3.3 4 - 5 - Year Large - Bank Capital Bonds Should Be Bought During Price Adjustments - There is no need to overly worry about insurance institutions' reduction of bank capital bonds. Their holding scale is limited, and they are not the main price - setters. In the medium - to long - term, the reduction in insurance demand and the rectification of bank wealth management's net - value smoothing methods will affect the spread center of bank capital bonds [53] - Comparing the credit spread quantiles of bank second - tier capital bonds in 2025 (January - April) and 2024, the spread centers of 1 - 3Y large - bank capital bonds and 1Y small - and medium - bank capital bonds are similar, while those of 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds and medium - to long - term small - and medium - bank capital bonds have increased to varying degrees [54] - 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds have cost - effectiveness. With the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts and the progress of Sino - US negotiations, fundamentals may become the focus of market speculation. Currently, with stable funding rates, compressing spreads may be a dominant strategy. As of May 13, 2025, the yield of 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds is around 1.95%, and there is still about 8 - 16bp of spread compression space compared with the 1/4 quantile in 2024 [5][56]

Core Viewpoint - Insurance capital has been actively increasing stakes in bank stocks, particularly state-owned banks, due to their stable performance, low valuations, and high dividend yields, amidst a backdrop of asset scarcity and increasing investment pressure [1][2]. Group 1: Insurance Capital Activity - As of May 9, insurance capital has made 13 stake increases this year, with 6 of these involving bank stocks, including significant investments by Ping An Life in Agricultural Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and China Merchants Bank [1]. - Ping An Life has notably increased its holdings in China Merchants Bank, surpassing the 5% threshold and reaching a 12% stake by May 9, with an average share price of 44.7757 HKD [1]. - The total book value of stocks held by Ping An is reported at 437.379 billion CNY, reflecting a nearly 50% year-on-year increase [1]. Group 2: Investment Preferences and Strategies - The preference for state-owned banks is attributed to their strong operational fundamentals, low volatility, and attractive dividend yields, with major banks offering average dividend yields above 5% [2]. - Ping An's management has indicated that the average dividend yield of over 5% provides a significant spread compared to the current insurance product guarantee rates of 2%-2.5%, making core bank stocks ideal investment targets [2]. - Insurance companies face challenges in investment decisions due to new financial instrument regulations, leading to a focus on long-term stock investments and high-dividend strategies to mitigate profit volatility [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Current statistics show that listed insurance companies have a low allocation to FVOCI equity assets, with only about 11% in equity allocation and 5% in OCI equity assets, indicating substantial room for growth [3]. - Recent government policies aimed at encouraging long-term insurance capital market participation are expected to inject significant funds into the market, with estimates suggesting an additional 1.66 trillion CNY could enter the market if equity asset limits are fully utilized [3]. - Projections indicate that insurance capital could contribute an incremental 600-800 billion CNY to the market over the next three years, with high-dividend stocks being a key focus area for future allocations [3].

Group 1 - Insurance capital has frequently increased stakes in bank stocks, with 13 instances of stake increases this year, 6 of which are in bank stocks [1] - Ping An Life has notably increased its holdings in China Merchants Bank, with its stake rising to 12% as of May 9, 2023, after multiple purchases [1] - As of the end of 2024, the book value of stocks invested by Ping An is reported to be 437.379 billion yuan, reflecting a nearly 50% increase from 2023 [1] Group 2 - The trend of insurance capital increasing stakes in bank stocks is driven by the "asset shortage" context, with banks, especially state-owned banks, being favored for their stable performance, low valuations, and high dividends [2] - The average dividend yield of the six major state-owned banks' H-shares is above 5%, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China at 6.05% [2] - Ping An's CEO highlighted the advantages of investing in state-owned banks due to their stable fundamentals and attractive dividend yields compared to current insurance product guaranteed rates [2] Group 3 - Current listed insurance companies have a low proportion of FVOCI equity assets, with only about 11% in equity allocation and 5% in OCI equity assets, indicating significant room for increase [3] - Recent policies encouraging long-term insurance capital investment are expected to boost market participation, including a proposed 600 billion yuan injection into the market [3] - If insurance companies fully utilize the upper limit of equity asset allocation, it could lead to an additional 1.66 trillion yuan in market funds, with high dividends being a key focus for future allocations [3]

南方财经全媒体记者 孙诗卉 实习生 吕广龙 上海报道 近年来，我国基础设施公募REITs市场稳步发展，发行数量和募集资金规模持续增长，REITs市场受益 于常态化发行提速及前期限售份额逐渐解禁，提质扩容取得成效。截至目前，我国REITs累计上市超50 只，发行规模（含扩募）超千亿元。与此同时，公募REITs也吸引了大量机构投资者的目光，其中保险 资金参与度显著提升。 据21世纪经济报道记者不完全统计，今年上市的7只公募REITs中，险资均参与配售且占总份额比例靠 前，其中招商基金招商蛇口租赁住房封闭式基础设施证券投资基金险资配额占比达7.43%，另外南方顺 丰仓储物流封闭式基础设施证券投资基金和博时招商蛇口产业园封闭式基础设施证券投资基金的险资配 额比例也达到了6%以上。 2025年上市公募REITs统计表 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 险资配额占比(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 180305. OF | 南方顺丰仓储物流封闭式基础设施证券投资基金 | 6. 27 | | 2 | 508002. OF | 华安百联消费封闭式基础设施证券投资基金 | 3.09 | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The REITs market is expected to continue to provide good investment opportunities due to the downward pressure on bond market interest rates and the expectation of increased allocations from social security and pension funds [3][5] - The market performance of various REITs sectors shows a mixed trend, with housing REITs performing particularly well [5][37] Market Overview - As of the 19th week of 2025, the CSI REITs closing index was 848.41, up 5.59% year-on-year and up 0.28% month-on-month; the CSI REITs total return index was 1062.05, up 11.94% year-on-year and up 0.39% month-on-month [3][19] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs closing index has increased by 12.16%, slightly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has increased by 12.1% [14] - The trading volume in the REITs market reached 418 million shares, a year-on-year decrease of 12.37%, with a total transaction value of 1.773 billion yuan, down 8.56% year-on-year [26][29] Sector Performance - Weekly and monthly performance of various REITs sectors includes: - Housing REITs: +2.35% weekly, +2.68% monthly - Environmental REITs: -0.11% weekly, -2.76% monthly - Highway REITs: -0.39% weekly, -4.44% monthly - Industrial park REITs: +0.46% weekly, +4.28% monthly - Warehousing and logistics REITs: +1.57% weekly, -1.34% monthly - Energy REITs: +0.23% weekly, +3.96% monthly - Consumer REITs: +0.84% weekly [5][37] Upcoming Developments - There are currently 14 REITs funds awaiting listing, indicating a sustained active issuance market [6][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday opening, avoid chasing high prices and focus on the opportunity for small and medium - cap stocks to release elasticity. Consider long positions mainly in CSI 1000 (IM) [1]. - Factors such as asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upside space [1]. - Gold will oscillate in the short - term high - level range, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - Many commodities in different sectors are expected to oscillate due to various factors such as trade frictions, policy uncertainties, and supply - demand imbalances. Some commodities are expected to decline or rise based on specific supply and demand situations [1]. Summary by Industry Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: It is expected to oscillate. After the holiday opening, avoid chasing high prices and focus on the opportunity for small and medium - cap stocks to release elasticity. Consider long positions mainly in CSI 1000 (IM) [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillating. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upside space [1]. - **Gold**: Oscillating. It will oscillate in the short - term high - level range, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Oscillating. Sino - US talks will start, and the market sentiment has improved in the short - term, but the copper price has clearly rebounded, so the price may oscillate. Focus on the positive arbitrage opportunity of Shanghai copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating. Global trade frictions are still uncertain, and with the arrival of the domestic wet season, the domestic inventory reduction speed may slow down, so the aluminum price will oscillate [1]. - **Alumina**: The supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved, and the short - term price may rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating. Under the favorable domestic policies, the market sentiment has improved, but the result of Sino - US tariff negotiations is unknown, and the risk - aversion sentiment still exists. The low inventory in the near - term supports the zinc price, but the fundamental upside pressure is large. Focus on short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Oscillating. The domestic pro - growth policies boost the market sentiment. Sino - US talks will be held, and pay attention to the progress of relevant news. Indonesia's resource tax policy has been implemented, the premium of nickel ore is high, and the nickel price will oscillate. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowinning nickel. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and operate within the range. Be vigilant about changes in domestic and foreign macro and resource - country policies [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating. The domestic pro - growth policies boost the market sentiment. Sino - US talks will be held, and pay attention to the progress of relevant news. Indonesia's resource tax policy has been implemented, the supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, the price of nickel iron has slightly corrected, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the demand expectation is weak under the background of trade frictions. In the short - term, the stainless - steel futures will oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see and operate within the range. The industrial sector should pay attention to policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Oscillating. Supply is strengthening, demand is weakening, it has entered the low - valuation range, and the demand has not improved and the inventory pressure has not been relieved [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Oscillating. The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, and the futures are at a discount to the spot, so the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish. Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, and downstream raw - material inventory is at a high level. At the low price, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases [1]. Black Metals Sector - **Rebar**: Oscillating. Trade disputes intensify the pressure on the export chain, the short - term risk preference is slightly poor, and the opening price will dive [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillating. Trade disputes intensify the pressure on the export chain. Plates may bear the brunt, the short - term risk preference is slightly poor, and the opening price will dive [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating. Tariff policies affect the market sentiment, and iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Oscillating. The inventory is high, but the cost has support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Oscillating. The cost has loosened, but the production area has reduced production, and the social inventory is neutral [1]. - **Glass**: Oscillating. The demand is released in a pulsed manner. Pay attention to the demand performance. The near - term positions are gradually decreasing, and the long - short game is weakening [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Oscillating. Alkali plants are resuming production, and the demand has increased, but the medium - term supply is in excess, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Oscillating. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus, and they are short - allocated in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunity of positive arbitrage in the futures - cash market and selling hedging after the price rebounds to a premium [1]. - **Coke**: Oscillating. Similar to coking coal [1]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Oscillating. The rebound of crude oil prices may make it difficult for oils and fats to decline smoothly. The fundamentals are bearish. Wait for the opportunity to short after the price rebounds. It is recommended to do long in the YP spread [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating. There is currently a lack of weather themes for US soybeans. The large volume of soybean arrivals and the intention of Sino - US talks may be bearish risks, and the price is in a unilateral oscillation [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Oscillating. The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting period. There may be an anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed recently, which is expected to bring large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and consider doing long in the volatility [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating. If crude oil continues to search for the bottom, the cotton - spinning demand may be weak, and the substitution between chemical fiber and cotton will also put pressure on the cotton price. Recently, the prices of overseas agricultural products have fallen from high levels, the cotton - grain price ratio has repaired upwards, and the substitution effect of US cotton planting has weakened marginally, which is bearish for the long - term US cotton price [1]. - **Sugar**: Oscillating. Overseas, the production reduction in Brazil and the lower - than - expected production increase in India have raised concerns about international supply shortages, and the price of raw sugar has risen strongly recently. Domestically, the sugar - making season is approaching the end, the production has increased significantly year - on - year, and the industrial inventory has reached a historical high, which suppresses the upside space of the domestic market [1]. - **Corn**: Oscillating. In the short - term, affected by the impact of new wheat listing and the expectation of policy - based grain release, the corn futures price faces certain pressure. The expected trend is oscillating, and the bullish expectation remains unchanged under the tightening medium - term supply and demand. It is recommended to wait for the callback to do long [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Bearish. The dry weather in the US soybean - producing areas recently is conducive to sowing, the Brazilian discount is generally oscillating weakly, there is no obvious bullish driver in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to continue the weakly oscillating trend. Wait for the further release of spot pressure [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating. The decline in the overseas offer of paper pulp weakens the cost support, and the domestic demand has entered the off - season. The inventory has slightly decreased recently. It is recommended to hold the position and wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Oscillating. The volume of log arrivals remains high, the inventory is generally at a high level, the price of terminal products has fallen, and there is no short - term bullish factor. The current valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - **Pigs**: Oscillating. With the continuous restoration of pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase, the futures price has an obvious expectation, the discount to the spot is large, and there is no bright spot in the downstream [1]. Energy and Chemicals Sector - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating. Affected by the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the accelerated production increase of OPEC +, and the weakening global demand [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Oscillating. Affected by the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the accelerated production increase of OPEC +, and the weakening global demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Oscillating. The cost is dragging down, the inventory is still low but continuously accumulating, the demand is slowly recovering, and the end of the 14th Five - Year Plan is worth looking forward to this year [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating. The expectation of production release is increasing, the domestic inventory is continuously accumulating, and affected by the purchase - storage policy [1]. - **BR Rubber**: Bearish. The cost is suppressing, the fundamentals are loose, the spread between high - and low - end butadiene rubber continues to widen, and it is expected to run weakly [1]. - **PTA**: The intensive maintenance of upstream PX plants has significantly repaired the internal - external spread of PX. Due to the profit repair of PTA, the procurement demand for PX has significantly strengthened, the floating price has started to strengthen, and domestic PTA and reforming plants plan to overhaul more plants in May. The high load of polyester has supported the demand for PTA [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Oscillating. Ethylene glycol plants are under maintenance, large - scale plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based plants have started to be overhauled [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Bullish. The slightly tight situation of PTA has strengthened the cost support for short - fiber, and in the case of a high basis, short - fiber has shown strong performance [1]. - **Styrene**: The weak demand for pure benzene has caused the price to continue to decline. The decline in the profit of reforming plants has clearly affected the plant load. After the sharp decline of pure benzene, the downstream demand for pure benzene has continued to weaken [1]. - **Urea**: Bullish. The market expectation is favorable, the sentiment is strong, and the urea market is likely to rise firmly in the short - term [1]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating. The basis is high, and the replenishment is active. In the short - term, the methanol price will oscillate within the range. In the long - term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weakly oscillating [1]. - **PE**: Oscillating. The macro - risk is large, crude oil is oscillating weakly, the orders are insufficient, the market sentiment is weak, and PE will oscillate weakly [1]. - **PP**: Oscillating. Some previously overhauled plants have resumed operation, the demand is stable, the trade war has intensified, the market sentiment is weak, and PP will oscillate [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillating. The fundamentals are weak, the macro - risk has intensified, and it is difficult to form a trend - upward movement [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillating. The demand during the May Day holiday was average, the driving force for the increase in spot prices was insufficient, and the futures price oscillated weakly [1]. Other Sector - **Container Shipping European Line**: The market has strong expectations but weak reality. In the short - term, be cautious when short - selling at the price - support point due to the price reduction. As the futures price begins to show a safety margin, you can try to go long in the peak - season contracts with a light position. Continuously pay attention to the 6 - 8 reverse spread for arbitrage [1].

随着债市波动可能加剧，投资收益的可持续性面临挑战。 2025年一季度，在营收整体承压的背景下，银行业投资收益却实现显著增长，成为支撑业绩的重要引擎。企业预警通 数据显示，已披露财报信息的100家银行（含非上市银行，下同）一季度投资收益合计为1762.91亿元，同比大幅增 长。对营业收入的贡献率从去年的9.2%增加至11.86%。 增长主要得益于在"资产荒"及净息差持续收窄的背景下，银行加大债券市场配置力度。虽然今年一季度债市有所回 调，但部分银行通过兑现2024年"债牛"行情积累的浮盈，实现了一次性收益增长。 值得关注的是，随着债市波动可能加剧，投资收益的可持续性面临挑战。业内人士建议，银行业应当着力优化久期管 理、提升投研能力，以更好地应对市场变化。 近七成银行一季度投资收益增增长 第一财经记者据企业预警通梳理，2025年第一季度，已披露信息的100家银行营业收入合计为1.485万亿元，较去年同 期的1.511万亿元略有下滑。 营收下滑的同时，投资收益却逆势增长。据统计，上述银行合计投资收益为1762.91亿元，占营业收入的比重达到 11.86%。去年同期的投资收益仅为1404亿元，占营业收入的比例为9.2 ...