| 日度美容 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 品种 | 股指进一步放量上涨,收日内最高点,预计延续偏强走势。拉长 | 周期来看,2026年股指有望在2025年基础上继续上行:宏观政策 | | | 持续发力、通胀温和回升或有助于改善企业盈利预期;资本市场 | 改革政策的引导有望为A股带来增量资金;同时中央汇金发挥"类 | 宏观金融。必 | 平准基金"作用,也将对市场形成支撑。策略上看,建议投资者 | | | | | 仍以择机布局多头仓位为主。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,近期关注 | 震荡 | 国 债 | 日本央行利率决策。 | | | | 近期矿端供应扰动升温,叠加宏观情绪好转,铜价进一步走高。 | 원미 | 近期国内电解铝有所累库,产业驱动有限,但宏观情绪向好,叠 | 加铝锭供应趋紧预期提前发酵,铝价有望维持偏强运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝供应端仍有较大释放空间,产业面偏弱施压价格,但当前 | 价格基本处于成本线附近,预计价格震荡运行。 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On January 6, platinum and palladium futures prices generally rose. The PT2606 contract closed up 6.02% to 616.8 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 5.16% to 471.9 yuan/gram. Affected by geopolitical risks, precious metal prices collectively rose, driving platinum and palladium prices to strengthen significantly. Due to market concerns about the spillover of the Venezuelan situation to South America, mineral resources were favored by funds, which also boosted platinum and palladium prices. [5] - Recently, the premium of domestic platinum and palladium futures prices over spot prices and the external premium have continued to narrow, indicating that platinum and palladium prices are returning to a relatively reasonable range. [5] - Looking ahead, under the macro - favorable conditions and relatively stable performance of gold and silver, platinum and palladium are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. However, in the short - term, the volatility of platinum and palladium may still remain at a relatively high level, and investors are advised to control their positions. In the long - term, with the supply gap of platinum still existing and the supply of palladium tending to be loose, the strategy can focus on buying platinum at low prices or adopting a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy. [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Prices (yuan/gram) - Platinum futures main contract closing price: The current value is 616.8, the previous value is 583.95, with a rise of 5.63%. [5] - Spot: Gold Exchange - Pt9995 closing price: The current value is 605.53, the previous value is 573.65, with a rise of 5.56%. [5] - Spot platinum (99.95%): The current value is 600, the previous value is 566, with a rise of 6.01%. [5] - Platinum basis (spot - futures): The current value is - 16.8, the previous value is - 17.95, with a decline of 6.41%. [5] - Palladium futures main contract closing price: The current value is 471.9, the previous value is 452.85, with a rise of 4.21%. [5] - Spot palladium (99.95%): The current value is 445, the previous value is 436, with a rise of 2.06%. [5] - Palladium basis (spot - futures): The current value is - 26.9, the previous value is - 16.85, with a rise of 59.64%. [5] International Prices (15:00, US dollars/ounce) - London spot platinum: The current value is 2318.782, the previous value is 2211.121, with a rise of 4.87%. [5] - London spot palladium: The current value is 1742.095, the previous value is 1671.588, with a rise of 4.22%. [5] - NYMEX platinum: The current value is 2327.6, the previous value is 2218, with a rise of 4.94%. [5] - NYMEX palladium: The current value is 1791.5, the previous value is 1719.5, with a rise of 4.19%. [5] Internal - External 15:00 - US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate: The current value is 7.0173, the previous value is 7.023, with a decline of 0.08%. [5] Price Spreads (yuan/gram) - Guangdong platinum - London platinum: The current value is 25.65, the previous value is 19.79, with a rise of 29.62%. [5] - Guangdong platinum - NYMEX platinum: The current value is 23.40, the previous value is 18.03, with a rise of 29.77%. [5] - Guangdong palladium - London palladium: The current value is 27.77, the previous value is 26.35, with a rise of 5.39%. [5] - Guangdong palladium - NYMEX palladium: The current value is 15.17, the previous value is 14.12, with a rise of 7.44%. [5] Platinum - Palladium Price Ratio - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium price ratio: The current value is 1.3071, the previous value is 1.2895, with a change of 0.0176. [5] - London spot platinum/palladium price ratio: The current value is 1.3310, the previous value is 1.3228, with a change of 0.0083. [5] Inventory (ounces) - NYMEX platinum inventory: The current value is 652841, the previous value is 652841, with a change of 0.00%. [5] - NYMEX palladium inventory: The current value is 210029, the previous value is 650012 (data may be lagged), with a change of 0.00%. [5] Positions - NYMEX total platinum position: The current value is 82836, the previous value is 90330, with a decline of 8.30%. [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long platinum position: The current value is 18042, the previous value is 19343, with a decline of 6.73%. [5] - NYMEX total palladium position: The current value is 20593, the previous value is 22709, with a decline of 9.32%. [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long palladium position: The current value is - 571, the previous value is 122, with a decline of 568.03%. [5]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/1/7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX日银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2026/1/6 | 4466. 61 | 78.96 | 4476. 70 | 78. 76 | 1004. 98 | 19457.00 | 1002. 30 | 19468. 00 | | (本 ...

Summary of Cobalt Market Outlook and Key Insights Industry Overview - The cobalt market is experiencing significant changes due to supply constraints and increasing demand driven by technology sectors such as 3C products and AR glasses. [1][3] Supply and Demand Projections - **Global Supply**: In 2025, global refined cobalt supply is expected to decrease by 11% to 228,000 tons, but is projected to recover to 239,000 tons in 2026. [1][2] - **Global Demand**: Demand for cobalt is anticipated to grow by 9.4% in 2025 to 242,000 tons, reaching 251,000 tons in 2026, although the growth rate is expected to slow. [1][3] - **China's Supply**: China's refined cobalt supply is expected to decrease by 8.6% to 151,800 tons in 2025, with a recovery to 193,500 tons in 2026. [1][4] - **China's Demand**: China's demand for refined cobalt is projected to grow by 20% in 2025 to 193,000 tons, reaching 202,600 tons in 2026, driven by the aging population and health economy. [1][4] Impact of Congo's Export Policies - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has implemented strict export controls, leading to a 31% decline in global raw material supply in 2025. [5][11] - The DRC's policies have resulted in a significant reduction in imports of wet intermediate products and a notable increase in MHP imports, while imports of products like cobalt tetroxide have decreased. [6][11] - The DRC's export quota for 2026-2027 is limited to 96,600 tons, exacerbating supply constraints. [5][11] Price Trends - Prices for cobalt salts have seen significant increases, with intermediate prices rising by 112% from 2024 to 2025. [9] - Cobalt sulfate prices increased from 29,900 CNY/ton to 55,900 CNY/ton, while cobalt chloride rose from 36,800 CNY/ton to 67,800 CNY/ton. [9] - The price of refined cobalt is expected to reach new highs, with projections of 350,000 to 600,000 CNY/ton. [8] Market Dynamics - The cobalt market is expected to face a supply shortage of approximately 12,000 tons in 2026, with global refined cobalt supply at 249,000 tons and demand at 251,000 tons. [2][12] - MHP projects and recycling materials are anticipated to be the main sources of supply growth, contributing over 20% to the market. [13] Regional Insights - Indonesia's share in raw material supply is expected to increase to around 27% in 2026, with new projects expected to come online. [2][14] - The Chinese market is projected to maintain strong demand, particularly in the battery sector, driven by the growth of 3C products. [4][32] Challenges and Opportunities - The cobalt industry faces challenges from geopolitical risks and policy changes, which may lead to price volatility. [8][11] - Despite the challenges, the demand for cobalt in aerospace and military applications remains stable, providing a buffer against market fluctuations. [8] Conclusion - The cobalt market is navigating a complex landscape of supply constraints, rising demand, and significant price fluctuations, with the DRC's export policies playing a crucial role in shaping future dynamics. [1][5][11]

汇通财经APP讯——在全球地缘政治紧张局势急剧升温的背景下，黄金作为传统避险资产的表现异常亮 眼。周二，现货黄金价格延续了前一交易日的涨势，进一步上涨约1%，收盘于4494美元每盎司。周三 （1月7日）亚市早盘，现货黄金高位震荡，截止07:30，一度触及4500.27美元/盎司，这一价格水平已经 非常接近去年12月24日创下的4549.71美元每盎司的历史最高纪录。与此同时，2月交割的美国黄金期货 也上涨1%，收报4496.10美元每盎司。黄金价格的这一波上涨，主要源于投资者对全球不确定性的担忧 大幅增加，特别是周末美国对委内瑞拉的军事行动引发了广泛的避险情绪，推动资金大量流入贵金属市 场。 KitcoMetals公司高级分析师Jim Wyckoff指出，当前贵金属交易者比股票和债券市场的参与者更敏锐地 感知到风险的存在。他强调，美国周末对委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的突袭行动，进一步刺激了对黄金和白银 的持续避险需求。这反映出市场对地缘政治事件的敏感反应，正在直接转化为对黄金的强劲买入力量。 上周末，美国军方在委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯展开突袭行动，成功逮捕了该国总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗，并 将其押送至纽约。周一，马杜罗在法庭 ...

近期委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被美军抓捕并押送至美国受审，为全球市场增添新的地缘政治风险。思博瑞投 资管理指，总括而言，尽管委内瑞拉政治动荡带来新的不确定性，其对全球市场的实时影响仍属有限。 然而，任何局势升级皆可能加剧投资者不安情绪，增加市场波动性。目前市场焦点仍较集中于核心驱动 因素，包括美国货币政策、通胀走势与科技创新进程。 委内瑞拉政治动荡对拉丁美洲及全球地缘政治具有更广泛的影响。特朗普政府的迅速行动可能提升美国 在区内的政治话语权。随着拉丁美洲多国关键选举定于2026年举行，委内瑞拉过渡进程的成败，将决定 邻国政治右倾格局会否加速发展。整体而言，近期事件并未改变对区内主要国家的观点，但特朗普对哥 伦比亚政权的相关言论确实值得关注。 对投资者而言，委内瑞拉局势凸显了保持投资组合多元化及持续监察地缘政治风险的重要性。受AI等 乐观情绪及稳健的企业盈利推动，股票等增长资产需求依然旺盛，而由于市场尚未对重大军事升级或国 防支出增长进行定价，债券收益率预计将保持稳定。 虽然目前直接影响主要集中在黄金及美元等特定资产类别，但对大宗商品、区域政治及全球权力格局的 更广泛影响值得持续关注。 委内瑞拉的政治剧变推动金价上涨近 ...

1月7日，国际油价大幅走低，纽约原油跌2.12%，报55.916美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌2.06%，报 60.49美元/桶。 此前据央视新闻报道，多家欧洲市场机构日前认为，美国对委内瑞拉实施军事打击并强行控制委内瑞拉 总统马杜罗夫妇可能加剧投资者对地缘政治不确定性的担忧，对石油市场供应和风险预期造成影响。 市场影响取决于委内瑞拉石油产量能得到多大程度的提升。 英国盐沼经济咨询公司分析师马谢尔·亚历山德罗维奇说，从贸易摩擦到中东局势，再到近期委内瑞拉 袭击事件，当前市场面临的地缘政治风险较高，正在影响市场心理和投资决策。 英国福德姆全球展望公司创始人蒂娜·福德姆认为，美国袭击委内瑞拉增加了市场不确定性，短期内市 场情绪将受到扰动。 受美国袭击委内瑞拉引发的地缘政治冲击影响，国际原油价格5日收盘上涨，黄金和白银价格当天大幅 上涨。 荷兰国际集团5日发布分析报告指出，石油市场供应将出现更多不确定性。短期影响在很大程度上取决 于委内瑞拉将出现何种权力过渡。如果过渡期漫长且混乱，短期内供应中断风险会上升。若出现平稳过 渡，且委政府更愿意与美国合作，市场可能面临更大下行压力。 多名能源分析师指出，尽管委内瑞拉拥有全 ...

前言： 这个市场从来不缺投资者，因为它本身的利润会不断地吸引一批又一批的有钱人进来。市场的法则就是 胜者为王，败者为寇。它在不断淘汰那些投机的人、那些不把规则当回事、不严格律已、不止损止盈、 不适仓操作、不风险控制、不调整心态的人。这个世界永远只有百分之二十的人起到关键作用，剩余的 百分之八十就是衬托和服务于这百分之二十的人。你的投资生活前半生我没有参与，后半生我不会缺席 这边提供最优惠的福利，最稳定的平台，最优秀的服务指导，陪您走过这投资道路。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 市场参与者密切关注即将公布的美国经济数据，特别是周五的非农就业报告，预计12月份新增就业岗位 约6万个，略低于前月水平。这将为美联储的利率路径提供重要线索。目前，交易商普遍预期美联储今 年将实施两次降息。里奇蒙联储主席巴尔金表示，货币政策需要根据数据进行精细调整，以平衡失业和 通胀风险。摩根士丹利则预测，到今年第四季度，黄金价格可能升至4800美元每盎司，主要原因是利率 下降、美联储领导层变动以及央行和基金的强劲购买需求。瑞银财富管理专家指出，中央银行购买、财 政赤字增加、更低利率以及持续地缘风险，将推动黄 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks are escalating globally, leading to an upward trend in resource prices. Precious metals, copper, and other commodities are showing strong performance. The market is influenced by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed's monetary policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][5]. - In the short term, most commodity prices are expected to maintain a volatile or upward - trending pattern, but there are also risks such as capital outflows and weak demand in some sectors [6][10][15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks from events like the US' strategic intervention in Greenland and the situation in Venezuela are driving up precious metal prices. Silver has set a new high. The long - term outlook for precious metals remains positive, but short - term price fluctuations will be intense [3][4]. - On Tuesday, COMEX gold futures rose 1.22% to $4505.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 5.95% to $81.22 per ounce [3]. Copper - Dovish voices suggest that the Fed may cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. The copper price is oscillating upwards. Although the spot market trading is sluggish and inventories are rising, supply disruptions from strikes in Chile and a tight supply - demand balance are expected to keep the copper price at a high level in the short term [5][6]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai copper main contract continued its strong upward trend, and LME copper broke through $13,000 without showing signs of adjustment [5]. Aluminum - The aluminum price is strongly influenced by short - term capital and sentiment. Although the supply - demand fundamentals show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, in the context of the Fed's expected interest - rate cut cycle, capital continues to flow into the aluminum market, leading to a strong performance of the aluminum price [7]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,395 yuan/ton, up 3.26% [7]. Alumina - The alumina spot price is still weak, but due to the expectation of maintenance and production cuts by loss - making enterprises after the execution of long - term contracts in January and the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector, the alumina futures have rebounded. However, the rebound may limit the scale of production cuts [8]. - On Tuesday, the alumina futures main contract closed at 2,818 yuan/ton, up 0.9% [8]. Cast Aluminum - The continuous sharp rise in copper and aluminum prices has pushed up the cost of recycled aluminum raw materials, driving up the spot price of cast aluminum. Although the demand is weak, the inflow of capital has supported the cast aluminum price to be strong recently [9]. - On Tuesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 22,995 yuan/ton, up 2.29% [9]. Zinc - Driven by capital, the zinc price has continued to rise. The geopolitical conflict has brought resource premiums, and the price hitting a nearly 10 - year high in China has boosted capital's enthusiasm for long - positions. However, the fundamentals are mixed, and chasing the rise requires caution [10]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc main contract 2602 continued its strong intraday trend and oscillated at a high level at night [10]. Lead - With the market maintaining a bullish atmosphere, the rise of LME lead has driven up the Shanghai lead price. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, but the low inventory provides support. The lead price is expected to continue to rise slowly in the short term [11]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead main contract 2602 moved up during the day and continued to rise at night [11]. Tin - In the context of resource risk premiums, capital enthusiasm has pushed the tin price back to a strong level. Although the raw material supply disturbances have eased, the seasonal decline in Indonesian refined tin exports and the reduction in domestic supply in January support the price. However, the downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [13]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai tin main contract 2602 rose strongly during the day and continued to rise at night [12]. Industrial Silicon - The market sentiment is high, and the industrial silicon price has rebounded. The supply is marginally shrinking, and the demand is also weak. The overall inventory has slightly decreased, and the futures price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term [14][15]. - On Tuesday, the industrial silicon main contract rebounded slightly [14]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The supply - demand of steel is in a weak balance. The off - season demand suppresses the price, while inventory reduction provides support. With positive macro - expectations, the steel price is expected to oscillate and rise in the short term [16]. - On Tuesday, steel futures rose. The trading volume of steel in the spot market was 96,000 tons [16]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is supported by the expectation of pre - holiday restocking. Although the supply is abundant due to the year - end shipping rush by overseas miners, the change in the South American situation has worried the market about supply, leading to an oscillating rebound of the futures price [17][18]. - On Tuesday, iron ore futures rose. The trading volume of iron ore in the spot market was 1.33 million tons [17]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - The fundamentals lack strong drivers. The decline in raw coal prices has narrowed, supporting the coke price, and the downstream procurement demand has recovered. After the holiday, coal mine production has increased slightly. The steel mills' procurement is still cautious, and the double - coking price is expected to oscillate and rebound [19]. - On Tuesday, double - coking futures rebounded [19]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - South American weather is favorable for crop growth, maintaining the expectation of a bumper harvest. The US soybean export sales progress is slow, and the external market is under pressure. The trading volume of soybean meal has increased, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [20][21]. - On Tuesday, the soybean meal 05 contract rose 1.09% to 2,776 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 1.06% to 2,390 yuan/ton [20]. Palm Oil - The palm oil price is waiting for the guidance of the MPOB report. The production in Malaysia in early January decreased significantly, while exports improved moderately. With positive macro - sentiment and weak oil prices, the palm oil price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [22][23]. - On Tuesday, the palm oil 05 contract rose 0.09% to 8,500 yuan/ton [22].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 委内瑞拉事件影响深远，部分国家局势紧张，地缘溢价交易继续，流动性风险偏好 | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战 | | ★★ | | 略配置价值不变。 | | | | COMEX 近月合约再现多头交割拿货、资源紧张预期等因素影响白银大涨，长期降息 | | 白银 | 长期持有 | 持续、供需缺口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，另外资源交易也是 | | ★★ | | 2026 年一大主题，长期做多逻辑不变。关注海外市场调仓风险 | | | | 全球地缘剧变，南美铜资源或成为地缘博弈筹码，加剧全球铜供应扭曲和紊乱，宏 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 观情绪叠加海外铜矿扰动，铜短期强势运行，但也要警惕情绪消退后铜高位回落风 | | ★ | | 险，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | 锌 | | 宏观和板块情绪积极叠加供应预期收缩，支撑锌价走高。短期宏观情绪占据主导， | | | 反弹 | 需警惕宏观情绪消退后，锌高位回落风险。建议多单及时 ...