今天分享的是：开源证券-宏观经济2025年中期投资策略：关税冲击与应对 报告共计：39页 该文档是开源证券2025年5月发布的宏观经济中期投资策略报告，核心聚焦关税冲击及其应对策略，主要内容如下： 1. 对等关税的影响 - 对中国的影响评估：加征关税对中国经济有冲击，加征54%关税预计拖累中国GDP 1.2个百分点左右；54%-145%的情形下，冲击在1 - 2个百分点区间。4月 制造业PMI分项走弱，5 - 6月、7 - 8月是关税扰动的关键阶段。 2. 经济数据的隐忧 - 加征关税目的：通过加征关税减少贸易逆差，推动制造业回流，以改变美国长期贸易逆差和制造业占GDP比重低的局面。 - 关税谈判展望：虽然关税谈判前景不明，但美国经济下行、通胀预期升温以及债券市场压力，可能促使其选择谈判。 - 美联储政策倾向：4月美国新增非农就业超预期，劳动力市场有韧性，美联储或在5月会议观望，三季度可能首次降息。 - 出口形势严峻：4月出口同比或大幅回落，全年出口同比可能降至-8%左右。 - 地产市场遇冷：4月30城商品房成交同比下降，二手房成交增速放缓，房价修复可能暂缓，中国偿债比率虽有改善但仍需下行。 - 价格水平低迷 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a bullish trend, nearing the psychological level of $3400 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market sentiment favoring safe-haven assets [1][4] - The recent U.S. economic data, including a March core PCE price index of 2.6% year-on-year and resilient April non-farm employment figures, alleviates concerns over "re-inflation" risks, providing support for gold bulls [1] - Technical analysis shows a strong bullish pattern in the gold market, with a "stair-step" breakout characteristic and a high probability of continued upward movement [4] Group 2 - The operational strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips around $3375, with a stop loss at $3365 and a target range of $3400-$3430 [4] - Key resistance levels are identified at $3388 and $3398, with a breakout target of $3410, while support levels are noted at $3374 and a stronger support zone between $3370-$3366 [4] - The market is expected to remain in a strong bullish trend, with a low probability of reversal in the near term [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a rebound in the dollar, gold prices have shown resilience, with a nearly 3% increase on Monday, closing at $3333.73, up nearly $100 from the previous Friday's close. The current gold trend is driven by global geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policy rather than solely relying on the dollar [1] - Short-term factors supporting gold prices include the unpredictable nature of Trump's trade policies, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and a prevailing risk-averse sentiment in the market. The Federal Reserve's dovish stance is expected to make gold a safe haven for funds [1] - The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later this week, with gold's daily chart showing a significant upward movement, indicating potential for further gains, with resistance levels noted at $3385-$3400 [1] Group 2 - In the silver market, silver prices rebounded on Monday, ending a streak of declines with a bullish candlestick formation. The current support level is around $32, with upward targets set at $33 and $34 [3] - The strategy for silver trading suggests waiting for a pullback to around $32 to enter long positions, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook for silver prices [3]

期货热点追踪 现货黄金价格创两周新高！3500美元大关能否再破？本周美联储如何出牌？ 相关链接 ...

2025 年 5 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 (15) (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 失业率(左轴) 非农就业增速(右轴) (%) (%) (1,000) (800) (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 政府 服务 商品 月均新增就业(千人) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a technical pullback against the US dollar (USD), with a daily decline of 0.19% to 0.6455, following a previous close of 0.6467 [1] - Despite the pullback, the recent rally has left significant technical marks, with the AUD/USD breaking the key psychological level of 0.6488, reaching a five-month high [1][3] - The strength of the AUD is supported by three main factors: expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, collective appreciation of Asian currencies, and positive signals from Australia's domestic political landscape [3] Group 2 - The AUD/USD has broken through the critical resistance level of 0.6490, with short-term technical indicators showing signs of overheating, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62.97 and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at 259.86 [4] - The breakthrough of 0.6490, which coincides with the 200-day moving average and last December's high, requires further validation through subsequent trading volume [4] - Upcoming Australian employment data, with expectations of 35,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.7%, could strengthen the Reserve Bank of Australia's normalization policy expectations, providing new upward momentum for the AUD [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's dot plot serves as a crucial tool for market participants to gauge future interest rate movements, despite its non-committal nature [1][2] - The dot plot records anonymous interest rate forecasts from the 19 core members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), reflecting their assessments of economic conditions [2] - The dot plot has been released quarterly since 2012 as part of a policy transparency initiative, included in the Economic Projections Summary [2] Group 2 - A dense cluster of dots in the plot indicates strong consensus among policymakers regarding the interest rate path, while a dispersed distribution suggests internal disagreements and a higher likelihood of policy shifts [4] - The median value of the dot plot is often viewed as the "baseline scenario," but extreme values can signal potential black swan risks [4] - The dot plot's predictive accuracy was notably off in 2022, where the median forecast for the end of 2023 was 4.6%, while the actual peak reached 5.25%-5.5%, highlighting its dynamic nature [4] Group 3 - Supporters of the dot plot, including former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, argue that it effectively conveys policymakers' risk assessment thinking [4] - Critics, such as economist Nouriel Roubini, contend that the dispersed predictions can exacerbate market volatility, referencing the "hawkish dot plot panic" of 2018 [4]

摘要5月5日，COMEX黄金库存录得1271.78吨，较上一交易日减持12.03吨；COMEX黄金周一（5月5 日）收报3343.50美元/盎司，上涨2.96%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至3346.70美元/盎司，最低触及 3243.10美元... 【要闻回顾】 瑞士宝盛银行经济学家David Kohl表示，美国经济几乎没有显示出疲软的迹象。在4月份的非农就业报 告发布后，他表示："美国不稳定和限制性的经济政策，包括引入高关税，到目前为止还没有对劳动力 市场数据产生预期的负面影响。"这位经济学家指出，好于预期的新增就业人数和低失业率推动了私人 消费的持续强劲增长。Kohl补充说，数据非常稳固，预计美联储本周不会降息。Kohl说，美联储可能会 忽略调查指标的负面数据，等到经济数据显示疲软时再采取行动。 5月5日，COMEX黄金库存录得1271.78吨，较上一交易日减持12.03吨；COMEX黄金周一（5月5日）收 报3343.50美元/盎司，上涨2.96%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至3346.70美元/盎司，最低触及3243.10 美元/盎司。 最新comex黄金库存数据： 日期 COMEX黄金库存 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing upward momentum, driven by a weaker dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with significant fluctuations observed in recent trading sessions [4][5]. Group 1: Current Market Performance - As of May 6, international gold is trading at $3,356.65 per ounce, reflecting a 0.67% increase from the previous session [3]. - The trading session opened at $3,335.94 per ounce, with a high of $3,386.59 and a low of $3,323.14 [3][4]. Group 2: Recent Trends and Influences - On May 5, gold prices surged nearly 3%, closing at $3,333.73 per ounce, which is an increase of nearly $100 compared to the previous Friday's closing price [4]. - The market is currently awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week, which may further influence gold prices [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market showed strong upward movement, with the price initially opening at $3,242.70, then experiencing a low of $3,237.10 before rallying to a high of $3,337.80 [5]. - The weekly chart indicates a bullish outlook, with the price recovering from previous losses and suggesting potential targets of $3,418, while support is seen at the 5-week moving average [6]. - The daily chart reflects increased bullish momentum, with expectations of further upward movement towards the $3,500 mark, contingent on maintaining support from short-term moving averages [6].