Group 1 - Allianz Global Investors' Chief Investment Officer Michael Krautzberger anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the FOMC during the meeting on October 28-29, continuing its "insurance-style rate cut cycle" [1] - The policy rate is expected to decline to a more neutral level of 3.375% by mid-2026, with discussions on ending quantitative tightening expected to intensify [1] - The Fed's recent shift towards a more employment-focused policy response is influenced by unprecedented political pressure, with Powell describing the recent rate cut as a "risk management-style cut" [1][2] Group 2 - Powell indicated that the economic outlook has not changed significantly since the September meeting, but emphasized increasing downside risks to employment [2] - The upcoming inflation and labor market data will heavily influence the FOMC's decisions, with a potential for further rate cuts if significant surprises occur [2][3] - The Fed may end its balance sheet reduction by the first quarter of next year, with a possible announcement in October or December [3] Group 3 - The market has largely priced in the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut, and maintaining rates could lead to significant market volatility [3] - Any easing policy's impact will depend on market interpretation of the Fed's motivations, with a preference for a scenario where rate cuts are seen as preventative rather than politically driven [3][4] - There is a high risk of significant policy missteps, particularly if the Fed misjudges inflation driven by tariffs as merely a temporary supply shock [4]

2025.10. 28 本文字数：2960，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间10月28日（周二），为期两天的美联储议息会议在美国华盛顿特区正式召开。 外界普遍预计，美联储将再次降息25个基点，市场将关注美联储主席鲍威尔是否会释放未来进一步 宽松的信号。今年以来，特朗普政府多次公开施压希望降低利率，这使得鲍威尔面临巨大的政治压 力。与此同时，他还需应对美联储政策制定层内部的严重分歧。自9月美联储重启宽松以来，已有多 位政策制定者呼吁在宽松政策上保持谨慎。 两大职责面临数据迷雾 美国政府停摆进入第四周，这导致多项关键经济数据无法及时公布，美联储政策会议陷入信息迷雾。 目前政策制定者对 "哪些风险应优先关注" 存在分歧，而数据缺位无疑使这一局面雪上加霜。 当前宏观形势存在多重矛盾信号：通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标，企业纷纷预警未来物价将上涨； 招聘不温不火，就业市场面临需求考验；随着企业投资规模逐渐明晰，整体经济增长预期正被上调； 此外，明年新税法（包括小费和加班费收入免税条款）将增加家庭退税，可能为经济注入意外动力。 在物价问题上，关税依然是重大变量。美联储锚定的通胀指标 —— 个人消费支 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points during its two-day meeting, with market attention on Chairman Powell's signals for future easing amid political pressure and internal disagreements within the Fed [1][5]. Economic Data and Market Conditions - The U.S. government shutdown has led to delays in key economic data releases, creating uncertainty for the Fed's policy decisions. There are conflicting signals in the macroeconomic landscape, including inflation above the 2% target, weak hiring, and rising corporate investment expectations [2][3]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a key inflation measure for the Fed, has risen from 2.3% in April to 2.7% in August, indicating potential inflation risks [2]. Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Fed Governor Barr predicts core inflation will exceed 3% by year-end, with a return to the 2% target not expected until 2027, raising concerns about the adequacy of current monetary policy [3]. - Kansas City Fed President Schmid expresses hesitance towards further rate cuts due to inflation concerns, while the absence of non-farm payroll reports complicates labor market assessments [3][4]. Labor Market Insights - San Francisco Fed President Daly emphasizes the importance of monitoring the labor market, suggesting that without risk management measures, labor market weaknesses could worsen [4]. - Despite a slowdown in hiring, there are no widespread layoffs reported, and consumer spending remains resilient, although the government shutdown poses additional uncertainties [4]. Future Monetary Policy Outlook - While a rate cut is anticipated, internal divisions within the Fed may create uncertainty regarding future policy directions [5]. - Market expectations indicate a 90% probability of consecutive rate cuts in the remaining meetings of the year, with potential for 2-3 additional cuts next year [6]. Quantitative Tightening and Asset Purchases - The Fed may signal an end to its quantitative tightening (QT) policy, with discussions around halting the reduction of its balance sheet, which has decreased from over $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed could fully stop QT in the upcoming meeting, although the pace of reducing mortgage-backed securities may remain slow due to complex market conditions [10].

特朗普政府一直高调表达其希望降低利率的愿望，这让鲍威尔在应对美联储决策层内部的深度分歧的同 时，也承受着巨大的政治压力。 市场普遍预计，美联储将在本周继续降息25个基点，这旨在防止劳动力市场进一步放缓，且可能不是一 系列降息的终点。 持续攀升的初请失业金人数表明，劳动力市场需求持续降温。尽管政府关门导致了大多数官方经济数据 的发布延迟，包括失业率（8月份的最后估算值为4.3%）。 弱于预期的通胀数据，包括上周报告的消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨3%，已经让人们对关税驱动的 价格压力的担忧暂时搁置一旁。或许更重要的是，美联储在上月降息25个基点后，经由共识达成的会后 声明中包含了对政策利率进行"额外调整"的措辞。 摩根大通首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli写道："虽然委员会中的相当一部分成员可能希望暗示，不应 将12月份的宽松政策视为理所当然，但我们认为这种替代措辞的选择可能对领导层来说过于鹰派。" 当然，美联储主席鲍威尔不会在周四的会后新闻发布会上暗示12月的另一次降息已经是板上钉钉的事。 因为变数太多，全球贸易谈判仍在变化之中，这可能会重塑对物价乃至更广泛经济增长的前景预期。 而且，若政府关门结 ...

Market Overview - The market sentiment is optimistic, driven by potential trade deal announcements between the US and China, which has positively impacted both equity and commodity markets [2][4] - The S&P 500 may reach the 7,000 level by the end of the week, supported by the current market backdrop and upcoming earnings reports [3][6] Sector Performance - There is a noticeable rotation from defensive sectors to more risk-on segments, including communication services, technology, and financials, as the market anticipates a Federal Reserve meeting [7][8] - Small-cap stocks are also gaining traction, indicating a broader market rally [8] Trade Relations - Upcoming trade discussions between the US and China are crucial, with expectations of delayed tariff increases and potential increases in soybean purchases from China [12][13] - There are indications that China may delay export restrictions on critical minerals for at least one year, which could ease trade tensions [14][17] M&A Activity - Novartis is acquiring Avidity Biosciences for $12 billion, offering a 46% premium to shareholders, which will enhance Novartis's portfolio in rare diseases [18][19] - This acquisition reflects Novartis's commitment to investing in the US market amidst concerns over potential tariffs on the pharmaceutical sector [21]

Market Overview - The A-share market has seen a significant surge, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, peaking at 3999.07 points, just shy of the 4000-point mark [1] - The Asia-Pacific markets have collectively strengthened, with the Nikkei 225 index breaking the 50,000-point barrier for the first time in history, driven by optimism regarding the new Prime Minister's stimulus policies and positive trade negotiations involving the U.S. [3] Currency and Capital Flows - Recent data indicates a notable return of cross-border capital, with the State Administration of Foreign Exchange reporting a bank settlement and sales surplus of $51 billion (approximately 362.7 billion RMB) in September, the highest monthly level since December 2020 [4] - The surplus reflects a growing demand for converting foreign exchange into RMB, with September's bank settlement reaching $264.7 billion and sales at $213.6 billion, resulting in a significant surplus [4] - The shift in corporate behavior, with companies accelerating the sale of U.S. dollars in response to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, has contributed to this trend [6] Foreign Investment Sentiment - There is an increasing willingness among both domestic and foreign entities to hold RMB-denominated assets, as evidenced by a net inflow of $93.1 billion in foreign securities investment into China over the first three quarters, marking four consecutive quarters of net inflows [7][5] - The strong settlement surplus of $51 billion indicates rising optimism towards the RMB, with offshore RMB reaching its strongest level since November of the previous year [7][9] Upcoming Economic Events - The upcoming week is critical for global markets, with the Federal Reserve's meeting on October 30 expected to result in another 25 basis point rate cut [13] - The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank will also announce their interest rate decisions on the same day, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate hike from Japan and a hold from Europe [14] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's communications for signals regarding future rate adjustments and the potential end of quantitative tightening [16][17] Earnings Reports - The end of October will see a concentrated wave of earnings reports from major tech companies, including Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet, with Apple and Amazon following shortly after [18] - Analysts expect a profit growth of 16.6% for the "Tech Seven" this quarter, compared to 8.1% for other S&P 500 companies, indicating strong performance in the tech sector [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the oil price will show a volatile and slightly stronger performance in the short - term, rated as "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Sanctions have raised concerns about supply, causing international oil prices to rebound strongly. OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, and the geopolitical situation cools down. Supply and demand maintain a bearish performance. However, the easing of the US attitude towards Chinese tariffs and the disturbances of European and American sanctions on supply concerns lead to a short - term volatile and slightly stronger performance of oil prices [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - long - term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production in 2025. OPEC+ plans to increase production moderately, and the overall supply situation is bearish [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - long - term)**: Different institutions have different predictions on demand, with EIA increasing the forecast, OPEC remaining unchanged, and IEA slightly reducing the growth rate forecast. Overall, it is rated as neutral [3] - **Inventory (Short - term)**: US commercial crude oil and refined product inventories have decreased, which is bullish for the market [3] - **Industrial Policy (Medium - to - long - term)**: OPEC+ continues to increase production moderately, and the IEA believes that the market may shift from tight balance to slight oversupply, which is bearish [3] - **Geopolitical (Short - term)**: Sanctions on Russia by the EU, the UK, and the US may lead to a tightening of Russian oil supply and push up oil prices, which is bullish [3] - **Macro - finance (Short - term)**: The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and China and the US will hold new economic and trade consultations, which is bullish [3] - **Investment View**: Oil prices will show a volatile and slightly stronger performance in the short - term [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Sanctions have raised supply concerns, and international oil prices have rebounded strongly. As of October 24, WTI crude oil rose 7.32% week - on - week, Brent crude oil rose 5.84% week - on - week, and SC crude oil rose 7.47% week - on - week [6] - **Month - to - month Spread and Internal - External Spread**: Near - month spreads have strengthened, and internal - external spreads have rebounded and expanded [9] - **Forward Curve**: Near - month spreads have strengthened [21] - **Crack Spread**: Gasoline and diesel crack spreads have declined [24] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: Global crude oil production increased in September 2025. The US weekly crude oil production was 1362.9 million barrels per day, and the number of active drilling rigs increased [55][79] - **Inventory**: US commercial inventories decreased, Cushing inventories decreased, Northwest European crude oil inventories increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased [80][90] - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand increased, and refinery operating rates rose. In China, refinery capacity utilization decreased slightly [101][110] - **Refinery Profit**: The gross profit of Chinese main - refineries declined, and gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined [119] - **Macro - finance**: US Treasury yields declined slightly, and the US dollar index oscillated [131] - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [140]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the Federal Reserve's approach, with expectations that quantitative tightening (QT) will end soon, particularly at the upcoming October FOMC meeting [12][18][27]. Core Insights - Major banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, anticipate that the Fed will halt its QT process due to declining bank reserves, which have fallen below $3 trillion [7][13][21]. - The liquidity situation in the market is deteriorating, with increased borrowing costs and reduced balances in overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ON RRP), indicating greater friction in funding markets [19][22][23]. - The Fed's low tolerance for rate volatility and political pressures are contributing factors for an earlier end to QT, as the central bank aims to avoid past liquidity crises [19][24][25]. Summary by Sections - **Liquidity Conditions**: The report highlights that while overall liquidity remains ample, funding markets are experiencing significant frictions as ON RRP balances have dropped to nearly zero, leading to elevated funding rates [19][22]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet Management**: Analysts expect the Fed to initiate temporary open market operations (TOMO) to alleviate stress in funding markets, followed by reserve management purchases of approximately $8 billion per month starting January 2026 [20][21]. - **Market Reactions and Predictions**: Following recent market turbulence, several banks have revised their forecasts for the end of QT, with many now predicting it will conclude at the October meeting rather than later in the year [27][29][30].

Group 1 - The Chinese assets are becoming increasingly attractive, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rising by 1.66%, driven by significant gains in Alibaba (3.64%), Baidu (2.9%), and JD.com (2.1%) [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 30% increase in the Chinese stock market over the next three years, citing an 80% rebound in the MSCI China Index since its 2022 low and expected corporate earnings growth of 12% [1][2] - Morgan Stanley highlights that global capital allocation to Chinese stocks remains "pitifully low," indicating potential for further investment [1] Group 2 - Intel reported a third-quarter revenue of $13.65 billion, marking a significant turnaround from a loss of $0.46 per share last year, with a gross margin of 40% exceeding expectations [2] - The Federal Reserve may halt quantitative tightening (QT) as early as next week, which could lead to increased liquidity in the market, reversing the previous trend of withdrawing liquidity [2] - The WTI crude oil price surged by 5.62% to $61.79 per barrel, signaling a potential shift in global capital allocation as liquidity conditions change [4] Group 3 - Gold prices rose by 1.62% to $4,131 per ounce, with analysts suggesting that central banks and wealthy investors are accumulating gold, anticipating a new era of liquidity [4] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, projecting a target price of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, emphasizing the potential for upward price movement [4] - The current market dynamics suggest that the upcoming FOMC meeting in October could lead to significant shifts in global capital markets, particularly if the Fed stops its tightening measures [6]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank strategists expect the Federal Reserve to announce a halt to the reduction of its balance sheet in the upcoming policy meeting, rather than in December, to avoid a significant impact on its policy credibility following unexpectedly high repurchase rates this week [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to make a policy announcement next week [1] - The decision to halt balance sheet reduction is aimed at maintaining policy credibility [1] - High repurchase rates this week have influenced the timing of the Fed's announcement [1]