"关税风暴"席卷全球，A股遇"黑色星期一"。4月7日，A股三大股指均低开，截至当日收盘，上证综指、深证成指、创业板指分别下跌7.34%、9.66%、 12.5%，超5000家上市公司下跌。盘后，中央汇金宣布出手，充分认可当前A股配置价值，已再次增持了交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）。据了解，4月7日A 股下跌是受到美国总统特朗普"对等关税"、外围市场巨震影响，上述背景下，多家公募、券商认为，中国资本市场抗跌韧性仍存，展望后市，内需、红利、 农业板块投资价值可能进一步凸显。 三大股指跌超7% 4月7日，包含A股在内的全球股市遭遇大跌，"全球股市巨震"相关词条登顶微博热搜，同时，"上证指数"词条也登上热搜。截至4月7日收盘，沪指跌破3100 点，报收3096.58点，下跌7.34%。同期，深证成指跌幅达9.66%，报收9364.5点；创业板指跌幅达12.5%，报收1807.21点。 方正证券首席经济学家燕翔表示，在此关税阴霾导致全球市场动荡之际，A股市场或走出独立性行情，整体好于全球其他市场表现。具体来看，燕翔表示， A股整体受关税的影响，不必过于悲观。虽然我国作为出口大国难免受到关税影响，但应注意到，当前我国对美 ...

受美国关税政策影响，全球股市动荡加剧，A股、港股4月7日也出现大幅回调。4月7日，A股、港股集体下挫，其中沪指收跌7.34%，报3096.58点，超2900 股跌停。港股市场方面，恒生指数盘中一度跌超13%。虽然A股、港股受外围恐慌情绪影响出现大跌，但不少机构认为中国资产在这一轮的博弈中显示出一 定韧性，可能短期内会看到一轮风险偏好的收缩，但从中长期维度，A股估值处于历史低位，耐心资本持续流入将支撑其走出独立行情。另外，4月7日，中 央汇金公司发布公告称，充分认可当前A股配置价值，坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。 | 行情列表 | | 多股同列 | 股票开户就选东方财富证券>> | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序 代码 | | 名称 | *● 最新 涨幅% | 涨跌 | 最高 | 最低 | 开 | | 4 NDX100 | | 纳斯达克100 | 17397.70 | -6.07 -1123.78 | 18089.25 | 17387.83 | 18022.1 | | 5 SPX | | 标普500 | 5074.08 | ...

今天亚太市场早盘，遭遇"黑色星期一"，日经N225指数触发熔断， 韩国KOSPI指数跌跌超4%，A股沪指跌超一度失守3100点关口。 此外，美股市场期货跌幅继续， 继美股上周跌近10%后，美股股指期货开盘后跌幅迅速扩大，截止发稿，标普、纳指期货分别跌近3%和4%。 VIX期货飙涨34.4%。 美国关税风暴对全球金融市场的冲击还在继续。 一起来看最新的情况。 01 亚太股市遭遇重挫，日股触发熔断！ 日经225指数开盘即现断崖式下跌，盘中一度狂泻近3000点，跌幅逼近9%，创2023年10月以来最低水平；东证金融股指数更惨跌逾12%，金融 板块成为重灾区，截止发稿，日股有所回升。 $$\mathbb{E}\{\mathbb{E}\}\mathbb{E}\{\mathbb{E}\}\mathbb{E}\{\mathbb{E}\}$$ 此外，据日本共同社报道，日本大阪交易所启动"熔断机制"，暂时暂停日经平均指数(225种)期货交易，以应对市场的大幅下跌。该交易所还启动 了"动态熔断机制"，暂时限制10年期日本国债期货主合约6月期货的交易，以遏制价格的快速波动。 韩国股市同样大幅下挫 。截至发稿，韩国Kospi指数和K ...

Group 1 - The Morgan CSI 300 Free Cash Flow ETF has commenced its fundraising period from April 7 to April 18, 2025, allowing investors to participate through online cash subscriptions, offline cash subscriptions, and offline stock subscriptions [1] - The fund aims to closely track the CSI 300 Free Cash Flow Index, which selects 50 listed companies with high free cash flow rates from the CSI 300 Index sample, ensuring companies have positive operating cash flow for five consecutive years and rank in the top 80% for earnings quality [3] - The CSI 300 Free Cash Flow Index reflects the overall performance of listed companies with strong cash flow generation capabilities within the CSI 300 Index [3] Group 2 - Recent attention on free cash flow ETFs is attributed to their focus on real profitability and financial health, distinguishing them from traditional dividend ETFs by excluding high-debt or financially manipulated companies [4] - The CSI 300 Free Cash Flow Index emphasizes large-cap blue-chip stocks, offering lower volatility, higher dividend yields, and stronger dividend stability [4] - Morgan Asset Management has launched a series of dividend-focused funds, including the largest Hong Kong dividend index ETF and others, providing diversified investment solutions across A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and Asian markets [4]

4月2日，上海财经大学校长刘元春在江苏扬州的一场公开活动上表示，以DeepSeek事件为标志，中 国科创崛起正在重塑中国资产的估值，中国科创企业正在技术突破、成本控制和商业化应用方面展现独 特优势。在中美科技竞争加剧、全球资本流动格局变化的背景下，中国科创的全面崛起不仅是技术进步 的体现，更是中国叙事逻辑的一次深刻重塑。 刘元春也强调，中国市场结构与市场秩序的治理是中国叙事和中国估值在中期全面持续的一个重要决定因 素，必须上升到新的高度。他还谈道，美国经济是否加速步入衰退期是美国叙事逻辑变化的关键，假如在 4月披露的美国一季度国内生产总值（GDP）增速为负，美国消费者价格指数（CPI）上升突破3%。美联 储很可能在4月下旬或5月份开启新的降息阶段。一旦美国降息，我国货币政策空间将更加充足。 中国资产重估不是短期事件 今年农历新年前后，以DeepSeek事件触发，国际社会出现对于中国发展叙事逻辑的逆转。刘元春表示， DeepSeek在一周之内获得了全世界的热捧，在资本市场只要与DeepSeek相关的股票都快速上升。在这 一轮中国资产的上涨潮里，与新质生产力相关的、战略性新兴产业相关的中国公司股票实现全面引领。但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The revaluation of Chinese assets is driven by technological innovation, macroeconomic policies, industrial environment, and valuation levels, with a particular focus on AI technology as a significant catalyst for change [2][3][4]. Group 1: Drivers of Asset Revaluation - Technological innovation, exemplified by DeepSeek in the AI sector, is a key factor driving the revaluation of Chinese assets, showcasing China's capabilities in manufacturing and technology [2]. - The macroeconomic policy environment is improving, with the government signaling a shift to a "dual easing" cycle, which is expected to stabilize the economy and improve corporate profitability [3]. - Industrial policies are revitalizing market confidence, particularly in the private sector, which is crucial for economic growth and investment [3]. Group 2: Valuation Characteristics - Current asset valuations in China are at historical lows, with broad indices and major industries undervalued compared to international peers, creating an attractive investment opportunity [4]. - The combination of low valuations and improving fundamentals is drawing global investors to reassess the investment value of the Chinese market [4]. Group 3: International Market Context - The global market's adjustments, including a weakening dollar and volatility in U.S. stocks, are enhancing the comparative advantages of Chinese equities [5][6]. - The current economic uncertainty in the U.S. is prompting capital to flow out of American markets, potentially benefiting emerging markets like China [6][7]. Group 4: AI Sector Potential - The AI sector in China is characterized by low-cost advantages, an open-source ecosystem, and ongoing application innovations, indicating significant growth potential [8][9]. - The transition from concept validation to commercial realization in AI is expected to drive performance in the next 1-3 years, marking a shift towards earnings-driven investment [9]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Three categories of industries are identified for potential investment: those driven by policy stimulus, those with cleared supply-side issues, and those with clear demand-side support [10][11][12]. - A phased investment strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors with immediate policy impacts, followed by those with supply-side adjustments, and finally, long-term growth sectors in technology [12].

本文作者：刘晨明/许向真/陈振威 报告摘要 扫描下图二维码 ， 可进入周一早8:00的路演链接 市场表现：中资科技行情波澜壮阔 1. 港股核心指数领跑全球，科技核心资产重估进行时： 截止2025年3月28日，恒生指数、恒生科技分别上涨16.8%、23.2%，在全球主要权益市场中涨幅靠前。 本轮快速上涨过后，2024年以来港股科技龙头累计涨幅已经超过美股科技龙头。 2. 如何看待抬估值行情后续&预期改善的结构性： （1）ERP：已来到过去几次高点的压力位附近，市场博弈和波动加剧。（2）市盈率与分位数：今年以来市 场涨幅主要由估值贡献。（3）PB/ROE：港股市场绝对估值水平仍不高，但全球截面来看与盈利水平匹配。恒生指数预测估值抬升、但盈利预测小幅下滑；恒 生科技盈利预测进一步上修。 基本面走到哪了：港股24年报初步统计。 截止2025年3月28日，我们统计港股初步公告的披露进度约达84%： 1. 整体法下，基本面企稳得到进一步确认。 可比口径下，24年年报全部港股、港股通（按当前成分、不追溯）、仅H股上市整体法净利润同比分别为12.0%、 4.9%、33.5%。 3. 海外资金过去半年节奏为： 特朗普胜选后主动 ...

作 者丨杨坪 编 辑丨朱益民 2 0 2 5年3月，由中国资产重估叙事引发的二级市场行情大好，一幕资本市场的"双雄会"拉开序 幕。 3月11日，王传福"闪电"完成了比亚迪股份4 3 5 . 0 9亿港元（约合人民币4 0 8亿元）的H股配售 融资。 3月2 5日，小米集团创始人雷军在交出"史上最强"年报后平地起惊雷，计划以每股5 3 . 2 5港元 的价格配售8亿股股份，筹资4 2 5亿港元（约合人民币3 9 7亿元）。 两场融资均发生在两家企业市值突破万亿大关之后 ，集齐"天时" "地利"与"人和"三要素，合 计在港股市场融资8 6 0亿港元（约合8 0 5亿元人民币）。 而这背后，两位高阶资本玩家对市场脉搏的精准拿捏，堪为后来者提供完美"教科书"。 相较于传统发行新股动辄数周甚至数月的审批， 先旧后新发行股票，可以在保障控制权稳定 的同时，有效提升流程效率。因为发售的是现有股票，只涉及移交所有权，理论上隔日就能 发售。 为何"求快"？无非是为了抢占"时机"。 今年以来，全球资金因中国科技创新突破、美股估值高企、地缘风险加剧而东移，恒生指数 年内涨幅超2 5%，日均成交额逼近2 0 2 1年牛市水平。 "天 ...

Core Viewpoint - The technology-driven bull market is the main theme of the current revaluation of Chinese assets, emphasizing the importance of technological breakthroughs [1][16]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The current market is expected to enter a phase of oscillation and adjustment after the initial stage of the bull market, which is seen as a short-term cooling period [1][35]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index is anticipated to lead the revaluation of Chinese assets, outperforming both the S&P 500 and the Hang Seng Index in 2025 and 2026 [1][35]. - Investors should focus on high-quality companies with strong fundamentals to achieve growth during the bull market [1][49]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The key variables for the macroeconomic outlook in 2025 are not extreme fluctuations but rather reform and technological innovation [2][17]. - The recovery of the real estate sector and the stabilization of rental yields in major cities indicate a potential stabilization of property prices by 2025 [19][20]. - The rise of AI technology is expected to enhance efficiency across various industries, contributing to a structural shift in the economy [21][30]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a long-term perspective and rebuild valuation frameworks in light of AI advancements, moving away from traditional static metrics [24][28]. - The focus should be on the penetration rate of AI technology, capital expenditure, and the application prospects in various industries [28][29]. - The bull market is characterized by a need to identify the most promising companies within the AI ecosystem, which may yield significant returns [46][48]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Companies in the technology sector, particularly those represented by "ATM" (Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi), are expected to benefit from the AI wave and should be prioritized for investment [3][44]. - The integration of AI into various sectors, including biomedicine, education, and finance, presents new opportunities for growth [46][47]. - The new generation of consumers, particularly those born in the 90s and 00s, will drive rapid growth in emerging consumption sectors [23].

过去一段时间，港股市场这种剧烈的上下起伏已经不是第一次出现。2月底以来，虽然市场多次由短期情绪和资金涌入催化快 速上冲，但始终无法"有效突破"我们早前给出的点位。我们在2月16日与2月24日连续发布《 中国资产的重估？ 》与《 再论中 国资产的重估前景 》两篇专题报告， 测算恒指中枢23,000-24,000点，乐观情形25,000点，建议在这一区间附近观望不必追 高，如果不选择获利可以适度调仓至红利。 回过头来看，这一观点是有效的。实际上，尽管活跃的市场给人一种持续火热的感觉， 但如果投资者是选择从2月底以来加仓 龙头个股或者恒指与恒生科技的话，过去一个月大概率持平甚至是亏损的。 那么，走到这一步，中国资产的重估到哪里了？ 接下来走向如何，该如何配置？有哪些节点需要重点关注？ 一、重估到哪一步了？叙事驱动的极致"结构市"，当前估值相对合理 图表：上周MSCI中国指数下跌1.7%，电信服务与房地产领跌，而公用事业与能源逆势上涨 点击小程序查看报告原文 资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部 过去一周港股市场大幅波动，周初恒指一度逼近我们给出的乐观情形25,000点，随即再度大幅回撤，恒生科技周四周五连续两 ...