Market Review - Global stock indices continued the "strong East, weak West" pattern, with US stocks declining due to concerns over Trump's tariff policies and economic recession, while A-shares rose, driven by the consumer and financial sectors, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3400-point mark on Friday [1] - In the primary sectors, beauty care, food and beverage, and coal sectors led the gains, while computer, machinery, and electronics sectors saw declines [1] - In commodities, concerns over US tariffs drove precious metal prices higher, with gold prices reaching a new historical high this week [1] Market Outlook - Large consumer spending is expected to receive policy support, with the current bull market likely transitioning from a technology-driven rally to a broad-based increase, benefiting from consumption policies and related resource sectors [2] - The focus is on domestic demand sectors benefiting from consumption policies and resource sectors related to price increases; the medium-term outlook remains positive for technology trends under the "new quality bull" asset line, particularly in AI applications, low-altitude economy, and domestic substitution [2] - The current bull market in Chinese technology stocks reflects confidence in the sector and is expected to improve consumer expectations, with the market likely transitioning from a technology theme to a broad-based rally [2] - The valuation of the Chinese technology index remains reasonable, with the AI+ industry trend expected to drive long-term growth; the current AI investment phase is shifting from overseas mapping to domestic industry chain investments, indicating a longer and broader market duration [2]

以下文章来源于天天IPO ，作者周佳丽 天天IPO . 投资界（PEdaily.cn）旗下，专注IPO动态 赴港上市潮。 作者 I 周佳丽 报道 I 投资界PEdaily 又一个超级IPO要来了。 投资界-天天IPO获悉，蓝思科技本周发布公告称，拟发行境外上市外资股（H股）股票， 并申请在香港联交所主板挂牌上市。这意味着，已在A股上市、最新市值超1 3 0 0亿元 的"果链"龙头正式赴港IPO。 总部落于湖南长沙，蓝思科技背后站着一位女湘商——周群飞。1 9 70年出生的她，凭借 一片玻璃书写创业逆袭的传奇，从普通打工妹成功蜕变成执掌千亿市值的"玻璃女王"。 现在，她要带领蓝思科技去港股IPO敲钟了。此时正值中国资产重估之际，年初以来港股 强势反弹，盛况久违。 "我的创业历程，就是一部心酸血泪史。"周群飞曾这样总结自己的创业生涯。 1 9 7 0年出生在湖南湘乡一个贫困家庭，为了生计，周群飞十几岁便辍学打工。那个年 代，一批湖南人南下深圳闯荡，周群飞便是其中一员，成为一名流水线女工。打工之余， 她还在深圳大学参加技能培训班，还学会了说粤语。 人生的转折点发生在1 99 0年，周群飞所在的玻璃厂扩建，但因为时任 ...

Strategy - The recent AI boom has significantly shifted investor sentiment and macro narratives, driving the Hong Kong stock market's continuous rise, primarily through valuation-driven growth. The market's optimistic outlook is reflected in the risk premium (ERP) [2] - Currently, Hong Kong stock valuations are still at historical low to mid-levels. The dynamic sentiment-driven recovery appears to be nearly complete, with dividend sectors showing a 5% relative space compared to A-shares, while tech sectors are aligned with ROE. The essence of this rebound is based on optimism regarding technology trends [2] - The short-term target for the Hang Seng Index is set between 23,000 and 24,000, with an optimistic scenario reaching 25,000. This static assessment does not imply an inevitable decline upon reaching these levels, but rather indicates potential market divergence if long-term expectations are not met [2] Macro Economy - China's consumption-to-GDP ratio is relatively low compared to international standards. While absolute price levels for goods align with China's economic development stage, service prices are comparatively low. The relative price levels indicate that the perception of low consumption in China is not supported by data [12] - There is significant potential for future consumption growth in China, particularly in the service sector, which has more room for expansion than goods consumption. Areas such as health insurance and entertainment are highlighted as having substantial growth potential. Upgrading goods consumption focuses on quality, while service consumption may require an increase in quantity [12]

基于两会中提出促进科技创新、提振消费，以及支持民营经济发展等政策重心，汇丰环球私人银行及财富 管理中国首席投资总监匡正日前与媒体分享有关中国投资市场的观点。 匡正指出，市场密切关注的政策规模与发力重点在两会期间进一步明晰。两会强调促进科技创新、提振消费， 以及支持民营经济发展等，聚焦增强内需，发掘新的增长引擎。 "我们认为，两会政策重心有望延续科技引领下的中国资产重估的动能，支持我们近期从资产配置角度调升中 国相关资产的观点。"匡正表示。 三大政策重心 在最新的报告中，匡正总结了三大政策重心，即科技创新、提振消费和支持民营经济。 "政策支持范围还有望从消费品扩大至健康、养老、托幼、家政等多种服务。此外，政策强调改善民生，表示 将多渠道促进居民收入增长，推动中低收入群体增收减负，并且适当提高退休人员基本养老金、发放育儿补贴 等措施，通过社会福利改革提升居民消费信心。"匡正表示。 另外，2月17日召开的民营经济座谈会，释放了促进民营经济健康发展、高质量发展的重要信号。《民营经济 促进法》或加速推出，依法保护民营企业和企业家的合法权益。 中国资产重估有望延续 匡正也谈到，近期，DeepSeek的横空出世触发了对中国 ...

东升西落。 作者 I 杨继云 报道 I 投资界PEdaily 段永平似乎迎来投资生涯首次空仓—— 3月11日，他的社交账号"大道无形我有型"发言："哈，终于来了！很少享受到空仓的快 感，投资以来第一次。" 彼时恰逢美股经历惊魂之夜，一夜之间美股市值蒸发了1.7 5万亿美元。其中特斯拉单日暴 跌15%，消失了1 30 0亿美元，创下20 20年9月以来最大单日跌幅，包括英伟达、苹果、 Me t a等在内的七家科技巨头市值单日缩水7 50 0亿美元，可谓震撼。 正如不少人在社交平台大吐苦水："这两天美股大崩盘，我只能认输。"更有甚者，一晚 亏了2 3 0万，美股一片哀鸿遍野。 隐约中，一种已流淌多时的微妙情绪愈发强烈起来：逃离美股泡沫，奔向中国资产。 美股开启暴跌 段永平：空仓的快感 严谨地说，段永平口中的空仓并非完全清仓，"而是作为一个满仓主义者，有了（一部 分）空仓的意思。其实一月份我就在这里说过了，美股有点贵。"在这之前的几天，他明 确说过50%的现金就算是空仓。 他的做法被认为是一种避险。此前，段永平行使大量期权，释放不少美元现金，仓位从高 位降至更灵活状态。 当然，无须纠结他是否真的清仓了，泡沫不破，投 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is currently undervalued, particularly in sectors such as retail, media entertainment, and consumer services, with a static valuation at historical lows [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent market rebound is primarily driven by risk premiums and optimistic expectations stemming from the AI industry's impact on technology sector revaluation [1][3]. - It notes a trend of global capital flow shifting towards Asia, benefiting Hong Kong stocks from southbound capital inflows and enhanced technology sector trends [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions and policy changes for the sustainability of this trend in the long term [4]. Summary by Sections Market Valuation - The static valuation of the Hong Kong market is relatively low, with the Hang Seng Index at the 61st percentile historically, while the Hang Seng Technology Index is around 20 times earnings, significantly lower than its peak in 2021 [2][7]. - The report suggests that while static valuations are low, dynamic valuations appear elevated, indicating a potential for emotional market overextension [7]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has been significantly influenced by AI narratives and capital sources, with southbound capital inflows leading to a rapid decline in AH premiums, indicating a strong impact on valuation and pricing power [5][6]. - The report identifies that the current market sentiment is relatively exuberant, with the Hang Seng Index's equity risk premium at approximately 5.7%, close to historical lows since 2021 [3][5]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy focusing on technology sector trends while incorporating stable dividend returns [10]. - It suggests a bottom-up stock selection approach, targeting new consumption and overseas markets to optimize investment outcomes [10]. Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report anticipates a significant increase in fiscal debt issuance in 2025, with a focus on new growth drivers and livelihood sectors, which is expected to enhance monetary circulation and reduce risk premiums [16][19]. - It highlights that the fiscal execution pace in 2025 is expected to be front-loaded, with a proactive approach to address potential economic challenges [21]. Global Capital Flows - The report discusses the "East rises, West falls" trend in global capital flows, indicating that Hong Kong and European markets are performing well while U.S. markets remain weak [11][12]. - It notes that this trend is driven by factors such as AI developments, fiscal policies, and geopolitical relationships, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics [11][12]. Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is highlighted as having absolute valuations that remain attractive, although profitability differences among companies should be considered [7][8]. - The report suggests that if technology stocks return to their 2021 highs, the Hang Seng Index could reach approximately 25,000 points, although this does not guarantee a correction or inability to break through that level [7].

Group 1 - The market is expected to regain upward momentum in late March, entering a phase of comprehensive rebound after a period of consolidation [2][3] - Investors are advised to adjust their portfolio structure, focusing on sectors that have not seen significant gains, such as large financials and dividend stocks, while making adjustments within the technology sector [3] Group 2 - Historical data shows that the probability of A-share market rising in the second half of March is higher than in the first half, with a 60.0% chance compared to 46.7% [4] - The core factors influencing the A-share market in March include policies and external events in the first half, while fundamentals play a more significant role in the second half [4] Group 3 - The technology sector is identified as the main structural theme for the market, with a strong emphasis on supporting technological innovation as a consensus among various ministries [5][6] - The short-term momentum in technology growth is expected to continue, with a focus on investment opportunities in AI computing, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy [6] Group 4 - The outlook for Hong Kong stocks is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on domestic demand as a countermeasure against external uncertainties [7] - The strategy suggests maintaining a "barbell" approach in investment, focusing on technology revaluation, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-dividend communication sectors [7]

来源｜财经下午茶 "今年两会，会场上科技的含量越来越高。今天的经济主题记者会，快变成科技主题记者会了。""这两天，谁要是不说说DeepSeek，好像就不太时髦似 的。"3月6日，在十四届全国人大三次会议原本以经济为主题的记者会上，证监会主席吴清在回应记者提问时，幽默地提到了这一现象。 同时，吴清还指出，DeepSeek脱颖而出，不仅仅使人工智能领域行业深受震动，也让世界、让财经界对中国科技创新的能力有了新的认识，某种程度上 带动了对A股、港股，和其他市场上中国资产价值的重估。 作为一款全球爆火的杀手级AI工具，DeepSeek大火之后，对于中国资产估值的提升显而易见。 DeepSeek引爆中国资产重估狂潮 AH 股市值暴增9万亿 据统计，在DeepSeek春节爆火之后，以节后第一个交易日为分水岭，截至今天收盘，A股总市值增长了5.57万亿元，约5.8%。 而且，不仅仅是A股，之前与美股走势贴合密切的港股市场也走出独立行情。 根据香港联交所披露的数据，恒生指数成份股总市值从2025年1月底的35.4万亿港元增长到2025年2月底的39.1万亿港元，增幅10.45%。而进入3月后， 涨势依然没有停下来的意思，恒生 ...

Abstract 摘要 投资价值："固收+港股"策略正当其时 2025年以来，港股市场表现亮眼，截至2025年2月27日，恒生指数和恒生科技指数年初至今涨幅分别为18.2%和31.6%，相比之下，同期沪深300指数 （+0.8%）、MSCI全球指数（+1.9%）和新兴市场指数（+4.5%）涨幅相对落后。本轮港股市场上涨集中在科技领域，结构性特征更加明显，展望未来， 市场期待来自产业层面的增量催化因素，以及后续总量政策是否有推动顺周期板块补涨的可能；当然也需关注市场情绪透支以及科技股估值水位隐忧。 "固收+港股"策略正当其时。一方面，"纯债资产打底"+"港股红利防御"+"科技龙头增厚"的配置方案满足了广泛的个人投资者"进可攻退可守"的风险收益 预期，适合作为一站式投资工具持有。另一方面，低利率时代下债券票息普遍摊薄，高息资产依然稀缺，纯债组合收益承压，市场更加关注权益端增强手 段，加之"固收+港股"策略产品近一年以来的收益弹性与韧性已逐步得到市场认可，"固收+港股"策略及其相关产品尚有广泛的发展空间。 点击小程序查看报告原文 "固收+港股"策略产品市场格局：规模数量齐创新高，近期收益优势突显 规模数量：突破新高 ...

Core Viewpoint - After a significant rise in Chinese tech stocks, a recent pullback has raised concerns among investors about the sustainability of the upward trend driven by the "DeepSeek" narrative for Chinese assets [2][5]. Market Performance - On February 25, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.60%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.32%. Major stocks like Alibaba and Tencent saw declines of 3.76% and 2.49%, respectively [1]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index has accumulated a 24% increase since the beginning of February, entering a technical "bull market" [5]. - The market has shown signs of fatigue since February 17, with notable declines in indices such as the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index [6]. Investor Sentiment - There is a growing call for rational trading as tech stock valuations continue to rise, with concerns that the current market sentiment and technical indicators are overstretched [5][11]. - Analysts suggest that the market's upward movement requires continuous catalysts, especially given the current macro narrative that remains to be validated [2][11]. Earnings Reports Impact - The upcoming earnings reports from major Chinese internet companies are expected to significantly influence the tech sector's performance [11]. - Alibaba's recent earnings report indicated a 11% growth in its cloud business, which exceeded market expectations and temporarily boosted market sentiment [6]. Future Outlook - International investment banks like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have expressed optimism about the Chinese stock market, predicting sustainable recovery and potential for long-term growth driven by AI and tech innovations [13][14]. - Analysts believe that the current market may be entering a new cycle of valuation reassessment, supported by favorable macro policies and strong corporate performance [15].