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瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250709
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 09:46
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **菜粕**: The current stage of Canadian rapeseed growth has entered the "weather - dominated" stage. Weekend rainfall in western Canada and expected heavy rainfall this week have alleviated the previous drought. In the US, the soybean good - rate is relatively high and the domestic soybean supply is increasing, which suppresses the meal market. Domestically, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is rising, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is waiting for Sino - US trade negotiation news. The rapeseed meal closed up in a volatile manner today and may maintain volatility in the short term [2] - **菜油**: Internationally, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to decrease, and international biodiesel policies support the palm oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, which restricts the market price. However, the decline in the mill's operating rate reduces the output pressure, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter and potential tensions in Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future rapeseed exports to China. The rapeseed oil closed down with reduced positions, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9510 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal was 2586 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract was 704.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.6 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed was 5079 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 60 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was 273 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil were 15732 lots, down 2370 lots; the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal were - 11828 lots, up 2352 lots. The positions of the main contracts of rapeseed oil were 281867 lots, down 712 lots; the positions of the main contracts of rapeseed meal were 567429 lots, down 12874 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3021, up 301; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 15663, down 136 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9630 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2480 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9670 yuan/ton, down 62.5 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5041.46 yuan/ton, up 52.97 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio was 3.77, unchanged [2] - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8140 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8700 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1080 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 320 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - **Imports and Processing**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit was 155 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, up 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 12.53%, up 1.07 percentage points [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Imports**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2] - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.01 million tons, down 1.14 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.46 million tons, down 0.64 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 59.95 million tons, down 1.64 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 35.58 million tons, down 1.32 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 6.9 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 29.3 million tons, down 0.8 million tons [2] - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 2.11 million tons, down 0.89 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 2.32 million tons, down 1.16 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2] - **Consumption**: The monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail was 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.25%, down 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 13.34%, down 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 17%, up 0.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 17.01%, up 0.3 percentage points [2] - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14.54%, up 0.4 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 13.52%, up 0.07 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal and other related data were not fully provided [2] 3.7 Industry News - On July 8, ICE rapeseed futures rebounded, with the most active November contract up 7.30 Canadian dollars to 704.10 Canadian dollars/ton [2] - As of July 6, 2025, the good - rate of US soybeans was 66%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than the same period last year [2] - The average forecast of analysts before the MPOB report was that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in June would drop to 1.99 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% from May [2]
FICC日报:市场活跃度增加,指数回升-20250709
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 05:15
FICC日报 | 2025-07-09 市场活跃度增加,指数回升 市场分析 关税政策前景不明。国内方面,国家主席在山西考察时强调,转型发展必须牢牢守住安全稳定底线。要着力稳就 业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期,强化"一老一小"等重点民生保障服务。要强化社会治安整体防控,常态化开展扫 黑除恶,依法打击各类违法犯罪活动。海外方面,特朗普表示,关税将于2025年8月1日开始实施,可能未来两天 向欧盟发征税函。此外,特朗普在内阁会议上表示,他仍在计划对包括药品、半导体和金属在内的特定行业征收 关税,其中将对铜征收50%的关税,对药品征收高达200%的关税。美国商务部长卢特尼克称,铜关税将于7月稍晚 或8月1日到位。多国回应特朗普最新关税措施。巴西总统态度强硬,批评美方做法"错误且不负责任"。德国财长 警告称,若不能与美国达成公平的贸易协议,欧盟准备采取反制措施。 指数上涨。现货市场,A股三大指数走势分化,上证指数涨0.70%收于3497.48点,创业板指涨2.39%。行业方面, 板块指数涨多跌少,通信、电力设备、电力、建筑行业涨幅超2%,仅公用事业、银行行业小幅收跌。当日沪深两 市成交金额回升至1.45万亿元。海外市场,美 ...
南美大豆的丰产预期,大豆价格震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 05:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is affected by factors such as South American soybean harvest expectations, import volume, demand, and policies, with prices expected to remain range - bound [1][3][4] - The peanut market is influenced by inventory, supply, demand, and weather, with prices expected to face challenges in the future [5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2509 contract yesterday was 4104.00 yuan/ton, up 25.00 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 196, down 25 or 32.14% from the previous day [1] Market News - On Monday, CBOT soybean futures closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 2.7%, hitting a two - week low. The decline was due to improved weather in the US Midwest and disappointment over the progress of China - US trade negotiations. As of the close, soybean futures fell between 21 and 28.50 cents. The July contract fell 24.50 cents to 1031.75 cents per bushel; the August contract fell 24 cents to 1031.50 cents per bushel; the November contract fell 28.50 cents to 1020.75 cents per bushel [2] - On July 8, the prices of national standard first - grade 39% protein medium - grain tower - loaded soybeans in Heilongjiang remained stable [2] Price Outlook - In the short term, the shortage of domestic soybeans supports prices, but the increase in imported soybeans and weak demand for soybean meal limit the upside. In the long term, good weather in new - season soybean production areas, stable global production, and weak domestic demand make it difficult for soybean prices to rise significantly. Policy factors such as provincial reserve auctions in July and the rotation rhythm of Sinograin need attention [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance, with the purchase price of Sinograin providing some support, so the price is expected to remain range - bound [4] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 8120.00 yuan/ton, up 22.00 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8900.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 180.00, down 22.00 or 10.89% from the previous day [5] Market News - Current peanut prices in different regions are as follows: Henan Zhengyang Baisha general - quality peanuts are priced at 4.50 - 4.60 yuan per catty; Shandong Linyi Junan Haohua general - quality peanuts are priced at 4.10 yuan per catty; Liaoning Changtu 308 general - quality peanuts are priced at 4.50 - 4.60 yuan per catty; Xingcheng Huayu 23 general - quality peanuts are priced at 4.50 - 4.55 yuan per catty; Jilin 308 general - quality peanuts are priced at 4.50 - 4.60 yuan per catty [5] Price Outlook - In the short term, low old - crop inventories and high - quality peanut shortages support prices, but imported peanuts and new - crop peanuts are expected to create supply pressure in September. If terminal consumption does not improve in July, inventory pressure will become apparent. In the long term, if there is no extreme weather in 2025, the new - season peanut supply - demand pattern will remain loose, and the likely decline in planting costs will lower the support level [6] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance [6]
外强内弱,粕类区间震荡等待指引
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 03:10
Report Title - "外强内弱,粕类区间震荡等待指引" [1][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The meal market shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal performance, with meal prices oscillating within a range and awaiting further guidance [1][47] Summary by Section I. China-US Trade Negotiations and US Soybean Growing Weather - China-US trade negotiations have made some progress, with China relaxing rare earth export controls to the US in June and the US canceling export controls on semiconductor software and jet engines to China in July, but future negotiations remain uncertain [8][9] - Trump's global tariff war is bound to be full of twists and turns. The US reached trade agreements with Vietnam and Cambodia in July, and the tariff agreements with Japan, South Korea, and the EU are more important. July 9 is the deadline for the US to suspend the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" [10] - The growing weather for US soybeans is currently favorable, with the new - season yield per unit area remaining at a relatively high level, but there is still a possibility of weather - related speculation in the future [11] II. Analysis of the Supply and Demand Fundamentals of Meal - The concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China is suppressing the futures and spot prices of beans. The peak of imported soybean arrivals has been postponed to June, with an overall increase. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the output of soybean meal in June has increased significantly year - on - year. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills has continued to rise, while the downstream procurement has slightly recovered at low levels and the提货量 has declined from high levels [15][16][17] - With the listing of domestic rapeseed, the short - term supply of rapeseed meal has become abundant. The expected increase in imported rapeseed, the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed, and the concentrated release of aquaculture demand have contributed to this situation. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed in July was lower than expected and the import cost fluctuated slightly, the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills decreased slightly, and the rapeseed inventory of oil mills rebounded from a low level while the rapeseed meal inventory remained low [31][32][34] - Rapeseed meal is in the peak season of supply and demand, showing relative stability and balance. Imported Brazilian soybeans will lead to inventory accumulation from June to July and inventory reduction from August to September. The 2509 contract will mainly oscillate within a range as the futures and spot prices converge, and the soybean meal 2601 contract will generally oscillate strongly while rapeseed meal is relatively weak [46] III. Short - Term Range Oscillation of Meal Awaiting Guidance - Uncertainties in China - US trade negotiations and US soybean growing weather, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans leading to a weak current situation and strong expectations in China, and the relatively stable supply and demand of rapeseed meal, which acts as a price stabilizer [47] - The key future variables include weather - related speculation on the new - season US soybeans, the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations, and changes in domestic demand [47] - The bullish factors are the speculation on the new - season US soybean weather and the uncertainty of China - US tariff negotiations, while the bearish factors are the short - term inventory accumulation pressure due to the concentrated arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the expected abundant short - term supply of domestic rapeseed meal after the listing of domestic rapeseed, and the current spot pressure on soybean meal during the off - season of demand [49]
豆粕:贸易忧虑、美豆下跌,连粕或偏弱震荡,豆一:周边市场氛围偏弱,盘面偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 02:58
商 品 研 2025 年 07 月 08 日 豆粕:贸易忧虑、美豆下跌,连粕或偏弱震荡 豆一:周边市场氛围偏弱,盘面偏弱震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 期货研究 | | | 收盘价 (日盘) | 涨 跌 收盘价 (夜盘) | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 (元/吨) | 4079 | -54(-1.31%) 4073 | -18(-0.44%) | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 (元/吨) | 2937 | -25(-0.84%) 2933 | -15(-0.51%) | | | CBOT大豆11 (美分/蒲) | 1020.75 | -27.5(-2.62%) | | | | CBOT豆粕12 (美元/短吨) | 286.4 | -6.0(-2.05%) | n a | | | | | 豆粕 (43%) | | | | 山东 (元/吨) | 2840~2880, M2601+60/+80/+100/+110, | 较昨-60至-2 ...
大越期货棉花早报-20250708
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 02:20
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询证号: Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花: 1、基本面:ICAC7月报:25/26年度产量2590万吨,消费2560万吨。USDA6月报:25/26年 度产量2547.2万吨,消费2563.8万吨,期末库存1672.1万吨。海关:5月纺织品服装出口 262.1亿美元,同比0.6%。5月份我国棉花进口3.45万吨,同比减少86.74%;棉纱进口10万 吨,同比减少14.55%。农村部6月25/26年度:产量625万吨,进口140万吨,消费740万吨, 期末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差:现货3128b全国均价15201,基差1441(09合约),升水期货; ...
A股市场大势研判:沪指尾盘翻红
Dongguan Securities· 2025-07-07 23:39
Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3473.13, with a slight increase of 0.02% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10435.51, down by 0.70% [2] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3965.17, decreasing by 0.43% [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2130.19, down by 1.21% [2] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 978.29, with a decline of 0.66% [2] - The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index closed at 1401.92, down by 0.93% [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Comprehensive (+2.57%), Utilities (+1.87%), Real Estate (+1.68%), Light Industry Manufacturing (+1.52%), and Environmental Protection (+1.10%) [3] - The worst-performing sectors were Coal (-2.04%), Pharmaceutical Biology (-0.97%), Communication (-0.77%), Home Appliances (-0.70%), and Electronics (-0.67%) [3] Concept Index Performance - The leading concept indices were Shipbuilding System (+5.23%), Biomass Power Generation (+2.83%), Virtual Power Plant (+2.62%), Cross-Border Payment (+2.36%), and Pumped Storage (+2.26%) [3] - The lagging concept indices included Recombinant Protein (-1.42%), Weight Loss Drugs (-1.10%), CRO Concept (-1.07%), AI PC (-1.02%), and AI Mobile Phones (-0.99%) [3] Market Outlook - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index managing to close slightly positive while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices closed lower [5] - The report suggests that as the mid-year earnings forecasts and reports are released, the impact of earnings on individual stock performance will become significant [5] - Attention is expected to shift towards domestic policies, US-China tariffs, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the upcoming Political Bureau meeting being a key observation point [5] - Recommended sectors for attention include Non-ferrous Metals, Banking, Transportation, and Utilities [5]
风物长宜放眼量——铜行业2025年度中期投资策略
2025-07-07 16:32
Summary of the Copper Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The copper industry is currently experiencing price fluctuations between $8,700 and $10,000 due to weak supply and demand constraints, with 90% of total costs distributed around $8,000, and market sentiment bottoming at $8,700 [1][2][4] - Global manufacturing has been at a low since mid-2022, with expectations for recovery driven by potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][2] Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper mine growth expectations for 2025 have decreased from 700,000 tons to over 300,000 tons, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance [1][4][5] - Supply-side challenges include aging mines and political/economic constraints, leading to actual production falling short of expectations [1][5] - Global copper inventories have been declining since Q2, currently at the second-lowest level in five years, influenced by the U.S. 232 security investigation [1][5][6] Impact of U.S. 232 Security Investigation - The U.S. 232 investigation has raised expectations for tariffs on imported copper, increasing U.S. product premiums by approximately 14% [1][7] - U.S. imports of copper surged by 200% year-on-year in the first four months, leading to a depletion of non-U.S. inventories and a strengthening of LME prices [1][7] Investment Strategy - The copper industry is viewed as having good mid-term allocation value, with low current valuations and potential for significant returns as interest rates decline and manufacturing cycles recover [2][3] - Key factors influencing copper price volatility in the short term include U.S. economic performance, Federal Reserve rate cut timing, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and Chinese stimulus policies [3][8] Company-Specific Insights - Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum's PE valuations are at their lowest in three years, with potential for recovery as risk appetite increases [3][10] - Zijin Mining is expected to increase production by over 40% in the coming years, with potential returns exceeding 50% post-Fed rate cuts [3][12] - Luoyang Molybdenum is projected to improve operational performance significantly, with plans to reduce costs by 5% while other companies face rising costs [13] Long-Term Outlook - The copper price is expected to trend upwards in the long term due to stable demand driven by increased electricity consumption and constrained supply [16][17] - Factors such as copper's steep cost curve and resource distribution contribute to its long-term price resilience [17][18] Conclusion - The copper industry presents a compelling investment opportunity, with significant potential for growth driven by supply constraints and recovering demand, particularly in the context of macroeconomic developments and company-specific performance metrics [10][12][13]
大越期货棉花早报-20250707
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 03:37
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询证号: Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 1、基本面:ICAC7月报:25/26年度产量2590万吨,消费2560万吨。USDA6月报:25/26年 度产量2547.2万吨,消费2563.8万吨,期末库存1672.1万吨。海关:5月纺织品服装出口 262.1亿美元,同比0.6%。5月份我国棉花进口3.45万吨,同比减少86.74%;棉纱进口10万 吨,同比减少14.55%。农村部6月25/26年度:产量625万吨,进口140万吨,消费740万吨, 期末库存823万吨。中性。 6:预期:中美贸易谈判有所进展,维持当前税率现状的概率增加。郑棉震荡反弹,关注 14000附近压力。 2、基差:现货3128b全国均价15200,基差1420(09合约),升水期货;偏多 ...
股指期货早报2025.7.4:美联储降息预期回落,A股结构性行情持续-20250704
Chuang Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 08:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The better-than-expected US non-farm data has significantly reduced the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut, while US stocks have shown an independent upward trend. Attention should be paid to the possible tariff agreements the US may reach with other countries before July 9. For China, the second-phase trade negotiation between China and the US has been implemented, with the restrictions on chip design EDA and ethane lifted, and the tariff negotiation related to China may be postponed to August. The domestic A-share market remains in a structural stock game. Although the index rebounded on Thursday, the trading volume shrank, and the index may face divergence in the short term. The index will generally fluctuate between 3400 - 3500, and the dumbbell strategy remains unchanged [2][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis Overseas Market - US non-farm employment in June was 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 144,000; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%, indicating the resilience of the US labor market and significantly reducing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. The probability of a 25BP rate cut in July dropped to 4.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25BP rate cut in September dropped to 64%. Affected by the decline in rate cut expectations, the US dollar index rose, the yields of short - and long - term US bonds increased, gold prices fell, crude oil prices closed down, but the three major US stock indexes rose independently, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated. Attention should be paid to US tariff news as the July 9 tariff suspension deadline approaches [1][6]. Domestic Market - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened higher, fluctuated, and rose 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.9%. The market showed a volatile recovery trend. Blue - chip stocks such as banks dragged down the market, showing a pattern of stronger Shenzhen and weaker Shanghai. Ningde Times had the greatest contribution to the rise of the ChiNext Index. Sector rotation continued, and the sustainability of the marine economy and anti - involution sectors was poor. The consumer electronics sector strengthened, mainly stimulated by the easing of Sino - US trade relations. Although the technology sector remained active, the lack of incremental funds in the market made it difficult to drive up. In terms of sectors, electronics, power equipment, medicine and biology, communication, and building materials led the gains, while coal, transportation, steel, and petroleum and petrochemicals led the losses. There were 3,270 rising stocks and 1,863 falling stocks in the whole market [1][7]. 2. Important Information - US Treasury Secretary Besent warned countries not to delay trade negotiations, stating that tariffs could return to the level of April 2, and about 100 countries are expected to receive at least 10% reciprocal tariffs. Trump will decide whether to extend the July 9 deadline. - Trump will send letters to trade partners as early as Friday local time to inform them of unilateral tariff rates. - EU aims to reach a "principled agreement" with the Trump administration before July 9; Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said Trump may be misled on tariff issues; Indonesia will sign a $34 billion trade and investment memorandum of understanding with the US; Canadian Finance Minister said Canada can reach an optimal trade agreement with the US and there will be no more digital tax. - The US "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed in the House of Representatives with two Republican lawmakers defecting, and Trump will sign it early on Saturday. - Trump had a phone call with Putin to discuss the Middle East situation and Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and also plans to have a phone call with Zelensky on Friday to discuss military aid issues. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that rare earths will not be a problem between China and the EU. - The US - Vietnam trade agreement will impose a 40% tariff on transshipment goods, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that relevant agreements should not harm third - parties. - The State Council issued a document to replicate and promote 77 pilot measures of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone [8][9][10]. 3. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and position changes [15][16]. 4. Spot Market Tracking - The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuations of major domestic stock indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as the performance of various sectors and the impact of market styles on different indexes [39][40][41]. 5. Liquidity Tracking - The report shows the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection, as well as the interest rates of different tenors of Shibor [54][55][56].