登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：熊园观察 我们定期对每半月重大政策进行跟踪：1）中央、部委重要会议与政策；2）地方政策；3）行业与产业 政策。本期为近半月（1.19-2.1）综述。 核心观点：总体看，近半月政策推动2026年"开门红"多聚焦扩内需，具体有6大焦点，包括英国首相访 华，多举措支持服务消费，启动"2026年全国春节文化和旅游消费月"，财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策 发布，证监会修改《上市公司证券发行注册管理办法》相关法律适用意见、旨在引入"耐心资本"，地方 进入两会期。其他可关注：1.30政治局第二十四次集体学习聚焦未来产业，人社部将发布《新就业形态 劳动者基本权益保障办法》等。继续提示：开年以来，"两新"政策提前下达、财政金融一揽子政策、延 续松地产等，均指向政策将主动靠前发力、力争经济"开门红"，短期仍有4大关注：1）地方两会，重点 关注各地GDP、CPI等目标，扩内需、强产业等细化部署，尤其是地方继续松地产；2）财政发力节奏 大概率前置，首批"国补"额度已下达、关注落地效果；3）央行一季度可能的降 ...

中国发展网讯 李揽月 记者朱波报道 1月30日上午，天津市政府新闻办举行《天津市国民经济和社会发 展第十五个五年规划纲要》新闻发布会。市发展改革委党组书记梁军，市科技局局长崔振平，市工业和 信息化局局长夏青林，市规划和自然资源局局长、市海洋局局长陈勇，市卫生健康委主任王栩冬出席， 介绍"十五五"规划纲要情况，并回答媒体关心的问题。新闻发布会由市委宣传部副部长、市政府新闻办 主任马波主持。 梁军指出，昨天闭幕的天津市第十八届人大四次会议，审查通过了《天津市国民经济和社会发展第十五 个五年规划纲要》。《规划纲要》谋划了"十五五"时期全市发展蓝图，系统安排了经济社会发展目标任 务。下面，向大家简要介绍《规划纲要》的有关情况。 一、编制过程 "十五五"时期是天津基本建成社会主义现代化大都市、奋力谱写中国式现代化天津篇章的关键时期。天 津会同各方面深入贯彻落实习近平总书记对规划编制工作的重要指示精神，按照市委、市政府工作部 署，高质量推进"十五五"规划编制工作。编制过程主要有以下特点： 一是高位统筹推动。市委、市政府高度重视"十五五"规划编制工作，成立市"十五五"规划工作领导小 组、规划编制工作领导小组，市委、市政府主 ...

培训旨在加强会员单位从业人员全面准确深入学习领会党的二十届四中全会战略部署，进一步提升政治 站位，增强对国情国策和发展大势的把握能力，切实强化从业人员作为直接融资"服务商"、资本市 场"看门人"、社会财富"管理者" 的责任担当，助力金融强国建设和资本市场高质量发展。 本次培训特邀长江资管固定收益研究部宏观策略分析师杨秀昶担任主讲嘉宾。他聚焦"十五五规划的宏 观视角"，结合大量权威数据与前沿政策，深入剖析了"十五五"规划的核心要义，系统阐释了我国经济 展现出的韧性、深化改革的方向以及资本市场的长期价值。培训高屋建瓴、见解独到、为学员打开新思 路。 期货日报网讯（记者 杨美）为帮助会员学习领会二十届四中全会精神和准确把握"十五五"转型升级机 遇期，谨记金融工作的政治性和人民性，奋力谱写中国式现代化河北金融篇章，2026年1月27日下午， 河北省证券期货业协会举办"资本赋能 冀往开来"系列培训第2期——"二十届四中全会精神及十五五规 划解读 "专题培训。各会员单位近300人通过线上方式参加本次视频培训。 ...

太平人寿党委书记、总经理(拟任)王旭泽作《抢抓行业黄金发展期 全面深化改革 以高质量发展谱写"十 五五"开局新篇》年度工作报告，全面回顾2025年转型攻坚成效，分析"十五五"开局阶段发展机遇与挑 战，部署2026年工作任务。 会议指出，"十四五"期间，太平人寿肩负职责与担当，以清晰的决策部署紧跟行业大势，各渠道发展稳 中有进，生态圈建设提质扩面，权威评价表现亮眼，连续保持法人机构经营A类和惠誉评级A及以上评 级。2025年，公司紧扣"防风险、强管理、促发展、保安全"工作主线，深化转型、攻坚克难，高质量发 展取得了显著成效：持续强化政治建设，擦亮金融为民底色，养老金融、普惠金融发展提质提效；核心 经营指标全面突破，调结构、降成本取得实效，个险、银保、服拓、网电多元、团险五大渠道深化转 型，实现量质齐升；客户服务体系持续升级，医康养生态圈不断完善，居家养老加快布局，科技赋能与 数智化转型再上新台阶；风险管理、资产负债管理水平持续提升，构筑扎实稳健的经营底盘，助力公司 发展行稳致远。 会议分析研判了"十五五"开局之年面临的宏观环境。一方面，当前人身险行业已全面迈入深化高质量发 展的"黄金发展期"，面对国家有需要、政 ...

策略研究 · 策略专题 2025 年业绩预告有哪些线索值得关注？ 2026 年 02 月 02 日 核心观点 分析师 杨超 ：010-80927696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 王雪莹 ：（010）80927721 ：wangxueying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060003 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 周美丽 ：zhoumeili_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525070002 相关研究 2026-01-23，公募基金 2025 年四季度持仓有哪些 看点？ 2026-01-06，如何理解"非理性繁荣"下的"理性 泡沫" ？——AI 泡沫系列研究之总量篇 2025-12-28，节奏看"水"，集中靠"质"——2026 年港股市场投资展望 2025-12-11，2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议对投 资的启示：向新向优 2025-12-08，12 月中央政 ...

Core Insights - The meeting emphasized the importance of aligning the company's strategies with national goals and industry transformations to seize opportunities during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [2][4][6] Group 1: Company Achievements and Goals - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," the company achieved significant high-quality development, maintaining strong ratings and improving its operational performance across various channels [3] - The company aims to enhance its internal capabilities and efficiency in 2026, focusing on six key tasks: leadership in party building, professional sales transformation, asset-liability coordination, digital empowerment, comprehensive risk management, and talent development [2][5] Group 2: Industry Environment and Challenges - The current macro environment presents a "golden development period" for the life insurance industry, with favorable national policies and market demands [4] - The company recognizes the need to address existing challenges and shortcomings while leveraging opportunities for sustainable high-quality development [4][6] Group 3: Strategic Focus for 2026 - The company will implement a comprehensive reform strategy in 2026, focusing on six areas: party building, corporate culture, professional development, talent management, technological empowerment, and innovation [5] - The overarching theme for 2026 will be to mitigate risks, strengthen management, promote development, and ensure safety, aligning with national and industry directives [5][6]

Market Overview - The current market is in a phase of upward trend with periodic fluctuations, emphasizing a balanced allocation between technology and value sectors, focusing on structural aspects rather than short-term index movements [1] - The market is expected to stabilize and rise before the Spring Festival, driven by fundamental and liquidity factors, with significant political and economic catalysts anticipated [1] Investment Strategy - Focus on sectors benefiting from the Spring Festival effect and macroeconomic catalysts in February, particularly in technology and value assets [1][3] - Maintain value assets as a core holding while increasing exposure to cyclical industry leaders showing improved sentiment [3] Sector Highlights - AI applications are gaining traction, with major tech companies competing for market share during the Spring Festival, including initiatives from Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba [2] - High-performing technology manufacturing sectors include AI hardware, energy storage, and pharmaceuticals [2] - Future industries of interest include defense, domestic computing power, and controlled nuclear fusion [2] Liquidity and Market Data - The dollar index experienced significant fluctuations, impacting market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies [5] - A notable outflow of approximately 370 billion yuan from broad-based ETFs, while sector-specific ETFs saw inflows, particularly in metals and semiconductors [5] - In the Hong Kong market, short-selling activity has returned to historical averages, with net inflows from southbound funds decreasing [6] ETF Holdings Summary - Significant reductions in holdings of major ETFs, with the CSI 300 seeing a decrease of 5,644 million yuan, leaving a remaining share of 42% [7] - Other ETFs also experienced notable reductions, indicating a shift in investment strategies among institutional investors [7]

Economic Performance - The GDP of Guangxi has grown by 5.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and outperforming the previous year and the national average [1] - The region has shown a positive trend in economic development, characterized by stability and quality improvement [1] Innovation and Technology - The establishment of the China-ASEAN Artificial Intelligence Application Cooperation Center has attracted numerous leading enterprises [2] - The successful launch of the 1000th industrial humanoid robot by Liuzhou Youbixuan marks a significant milestone in local manufacturing [1] - The Fangchenggang International Medical Open Test Zone has achieved a historic breakthrough with the development of the region's first class I new drug [1] Open Economy - The 22nd China-ASEAN Expo and Summit were successfully held, enhancing the region's international engagement [2] - The container throughput at Beibu Gulf Port has surpassed 10 million TEUs, positioning it among the world's major ports [2] - The Changzhou Water Conservancy Hub has maintained the highest annual cargo volume in the country [2] Business Environment - The "Efficient Handling of Affairs" reform has been implemented across the region, improving the business environment [2] - Financial policies like "Guihui Loan" have been effectively supporting the real economy [2] - There is a growing consensus among entrepreneurs that "making money in Guangxi" is increasingly feasible [2] Social Welfare - Direct payments of maternity allowances to individuals have been initiated, enhancing social welfare [2] - The process for cross-provincial medical treatment settlements has been made more convenient [2] - Ongoing efforts in pollution prevention and ecological system optimization are contributing to improved quality of life for residents [2] Legislative Support - The local legislature has passed regulations to protect and manage the Pinglu Canal, providing legal support for major national projects [3] - Research on artificial intelligence governance legislation is being strengthened to prepare for emerging fields [3] - The Six Fort Tea Development Regulation has been established as the first local law for a specialty tea variety in the country [3] Future Outlook - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," with significant implications for future development [4] - The upcoming conference will review the government work report and approve the "15th Five-Year Plan" outline, highlighting its importance [4] - There is a call for representatives to contribute wisdom and practical strategies for advancing Guangxi's modernization [4]

权益市场方面，祝松认为，积极的政策取向将为宏观经济合理增长保驾护航，进而为权益市场提供坚实 支撑。结构上，受益于政策支持的周期、内需等方向，有望迎来较好机会。 2026年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，宏观经济与市场走势备受关注。鹏华基金债券投资一部总经理、 拥有18年公募投资经验的基金经理祝松，基于宏观研判与实战积累，对新年市场及"固收+"策略作出深 入分析。他指出，2026年"固收+"领域机遇整体大于挑战，关键在于把握权益资产的结构性机会，重点 关注下行风险有限、上行弹性较足的板块，例如周期领域的金融、建筑、建材、化工，部分消费细分赛 道，以及受益于"反内卷"政策支持的新能源等方向。 债券市场方面，祝松判断，货币政策仍将保持适度宽松，债券利率大幅上行的可能性较低；但政策利率 下调空间有限，叠加"反内卷"等政策可能抬升通胀中枢，债市整体或呈现小幅震荡格局。 "固收+"机遇占优，三维策略把握机会 消费与投资双轮驱动，关注外部与地产风险 祝松认为，2026年国内宏观经济增长的核心支撑将来自消费增长与投资企稳。消费端，自2024年以来国 家通过"两新"、"国补"等政策持续刺激内需，2025年中央经济工作会议进一步明 ...

如今，科创中心回归城市中心已经成为全球趋势。市政协常委娄永琪呼吁要把握重要契机。"上海 每个区都有各自特点，每所高校也各有所长。如果我们把区域与学校进行不同排列组合，那么上海有望 出现更多创新范式。"娄永琪建议，复兴岛可以作为试点，在这里推出更多应用系列场景，构建出未来 城市实验区、创新创业和人才集聚区、时空智能创新先行区。 本次市人代会的一大亮点，是"十五五"规划草案将提交代表审查和大会表决。此前，人大代表们已 围绕"十五五"民生改善主题深入社区，与居民面对面交流，收集意见建议5400余条。记者获悉，不少代 表将继续就规划的具体内容与实施路径建言献策，推动"十五五"蓝图更贴近民意、更符合实际。 "医疗人工智能的精准性与专业性，离不开海量、高质量健康医疗数据。"今年两会，市人大代表姚 海嵩准备就"以智慧医学赋能民生健康"领域建言，他认为，要加大大健康医疗数据的开放共享力度，同 时加快推进相关立法进程，建立健全数据安全与保护的规范体系，让健康保障更有力、更贴心。 去年，46岁的单身女性蒋女士因病离世，掀起社会对意定监护及遗产管理问题的讨论。市政协委员 张玉霞认为，这一案例突出体现了临时监护落地难的问题。"在法定 ...