Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic use of energy by the U.S. government under Trump to manipulate international trade relationships, particularly with India and China, by leveraging tariffs and energy supply agreements as tools for geopolitical influence [5][10][20]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Strategy - In July 2025, the Trump administration imposed a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods due to indirect imports of Russian oil, which was lifted in February 2026 in exchange for India's commitment to purchase U.S. energy products [3]. - The U.S. is using tariffs as a means to enforce compliance with its energy procurement strategies, creating a system where cooperation leads to benefits while non-compliance results in penalties [5][9]. - The U.S. aims to establish a "global energy camp" where countries aligning with U.S. energy policies can receive favorable trade terms, while those maintaining existing partnerships may face sanctions [7][10]. Group 2: Energy as a Political Tool - The U.S. military's actions in Venezuela, including controlling oil resources, are part of a broader strategy to reshape global energy supply chains and assert dominance over key geopolitical regions [12][20]. - The Trump administration's approach marks a shift from traditional pressure tactics to direct control over energy resources, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains and enhance domestic manufacturing [13][16]. - The U.S. plans to re-establish Venezuelan oil exports in U.S. dollars to counteract global de-dollarization trends and weaken OPEC+ influence, thereby creating a new energy landscape dominated by U.S. interests [20][23]. Group 3: China's Response - China is focusing on maintaining strategic stability and autonomy in its energy procurement, diversifying supply sources, and enhancing the use of the yuan in energy trade to mitigate risks associated with U.S. policies [25][27]. - The Chinese strategy emphasizes self-reliance and industrial upgrades, aiming to reduce dependency on U.S. energy supplies and counteract the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions [27][29]. - The ongoing geopolitical energy competition will ultimately depend on which nation can provide stability and certainty in the global market, with China positioning itself as a counterbalance to U.S. hegemony [29].

中国央行连续15个月增持黄金。 2月7日，国家外汇管理局发布的最新统计数据显示，截至2026年1月末，我国外汇储备规模为33991亿美元，较2025年12月末上升 412亿美元，升幅为1.23%，续创十年以来新高。 同日公布的官方储备资产数据还显示，2026年1月末，中国官方黄金储备为7419万盎司，较2025年12月末增加4万盎司，为连续15 个月增持黄金。 尽管连续增持，但在国际金价持续刷新历史高点的背景下，单月增持量上显得谨慎，近期增量继续处于低位，整体以微量增持、 小步慢跑节奏平滑市场波动。 这一举措是统筹发展与安全、平衡短期波动与长期布局的理性选择。 持续增持行为并非孤立现象，而是全球央行"购金潮"的缩影。 为什么会选择连续增持？ 世界黄金协会数据披露，据统计，全球各国央行已连续15年净购入黄金，去年购金总量863吨黄金，购金需求依然保持高位。 虽然短期内金价波动可能影响央行的购金节奏，不过展望未来，全球央行增持黄金的趋势大概率延续。 有超过95%的受访央行计划在未来12个月内增加黄金储备，创下该调查开始八年来的历史最高比例。 但增持节奏将继续受金价水平、国际收支状况、全球流动性环境等多重因素影响。 ...

图 过去一周，贵金属价格剧烈波动，获利回吐和过热仓位交织导致价格从历史高位回落。美联储领导层可 能更迭，引发美国货币政策不确定性，也加剧了市场波动。 然而，支撑多年上涨行情的诸多因素—— 地缘政治风险加剧、央行加大购入力度以及投资者抛售主权债券和货币——依然存在。 ATFX：在经历了上周的历史性暴跌之后，金价连续两天上涨，周一，受美元走软至一周低位的提振， 金价上涨2%，不过今早的涨势暂缓，因为投资者在震荡的市场中获利了结，等待美国关键就业报告。 今日金价早盘一度下跌1.4%，短暂跌破每盎司5000美元，随后收复部分失地。自1月29日创下历史新高 以来，金价已下跌约10%，但今年以来仍保持较高水平。 3. 主权信用与货币价值的深层忧虑：全球范围内高企的政府债务水平，以及对主要储备货币长期购买力 的担忧，驱使全球投资者将黄金视为重要的价值储存工具和对冲资产。 本周投资者密切关注美国非农就业数据、消费者价格和首次申请失业救济人数的公布，以寻找货币政策 的新信号。市场已经预期2026年至少会降息两次，每次降息25个基点。 包括德意志银行和高盛集团在内的许多银行和资产管理公司都看好黄金价格，认为其将因这些长期需求 驱 ...

Group 1 - Recent geopolitical risk easing and profit-taking have led to a significant short-term pullback in gold prices, but this adjustment is viewed as a technical correction within an overall upward trend, not altering the medium-term bullish outlook for gold [1][3] - The recent rapid decline in gold prices was primarily driven by profit-taking and a reduction in geopolitical premiums due to the resumption of US-Iran nuclear talks, resulting in a temporary liquidity gap [3] - Central bank gold purchases have been a solid foundation for gold's price increase, with global central banks net buying over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, indicating strong demand and a supportive supply-demand dynamic [5] Group 2 - The market is currently in a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower rates twice in 2026, which supports the relative value of zero-yield assets like gold [4] - The ongoing process of de-dollarization and uncertainty in the credit system are expected to sustain gold's long-term premium, as geopolitical tensions and changes in the global monetary system enhance gold's status as a sovereign asset [5] - Technically, gold's weekly divergence has been corrected, indicating a continued upward trend, with key support at $4,630 and resistance at $5,010 [5]

2 2019 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 贵金属数据日报 用值 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | 2026/2/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2026/2/9 | 5027. 67 | 81.98 | 5050. 40 | 81. 57 | 1128. 78 | 20175.00 | 1123.00 | 19750.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Index (IH, IF, IC, IM), Rubber, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Gold, Silver, Aluminum, Lithium Carbonate, Corn [5] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude Oil, Methanol, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Apple [5] Core Views - Geopolitical and policy factors are influencing the oil price, which shows a strong upward trend. The negotiation between Iran and the US on the nuclear issue is in progress, and the Fed's interest - rate stance affects market expectations. The global grain consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase, and the domestic futures market has mixed performance [1]. - Precious metals are in a rebound phase. Although affected by short - term factors, long - term support factors remain. Silver's high volatility suggests investors to wait and see. Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical negotiations and supply changes in Kazakhstan. Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase due to supply and demand factors [2][3]. - In the financial market, the stock index is expected to continue the phased upward trend in February, but there are potential overseas risks during the Spring Festival. The bond market is affected by factors such as the Fed's policy and domestic economic data, and the bond price is expected to stabilize [10][11]. - In the energy and chemical market, the supply and demand of various products such as crude oil, methanol, and rubber are affected by different factors, and their prices show different trends. In the metal market, precious metals, copper, zinc, aluminum, and lithium carbonate have different price trends and influencing factors. In the black market, the supply and demand of steel, iron ore, and coking coal are affected by the approaching Spring Festival and other factors. In the agricultural product market, the prices of protein meal, oil, sugar, cotton, and pork are affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies. In the shipping market, the container shipping European line is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival and will face verification after the festival [13][19][25][28][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Main News Focus International News - Elon Musk said that SpaceX has shifted its focus to building a "self - developing" city on the moon, which is expected to be achieved in less than 10 years. The plan to build a city on Mars will start in 5 - 7 years and is expected to take more than 20 years [6]. Domestic News - On the morning of February 9, President Xi Jinping inspected the National Information Technology Application Innovation Park in Beijing, emphasizing the importance of scientific and technological self - reliance in building a modern socialist country [7]. Industry News - Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security conducted administrative guidance on 16 platform companies to protect the rights and interests of new - form workers [8]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all rose. The US dollar index fell. ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, LME aluminum, LME copper, and LME nickel all rose, while LME zinc fell. CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, and CBOT corn fell, while CBOT soybean oil rose [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose, and the domestic stock index rebounded. In February, the market is expected to continue the upward trend, but there are potential overseas risks during the Spring Festival [10]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's open - market operations keep the money market loose. The Fed's policy and domestic economic data affect the bond market, and it is recommended to operate cautiously before the Spring Festival [11][12]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session price rose. The negotiation between Iran and the US is in progress, and Kazakhstan's oil export may decline [13]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night - session price fell. The domestic coal - to - olefin device's operating rate increased, and the methanol inventory in coastal areas decreased slightly [14]. - **Natural Rubber**: The natural rubber price rebounded. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand supports the stable operation of all - steel tires. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival [15]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin futures fell slightly. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro - factors [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly, and soda ash futures mainly fell. The supply and demand of glass and soda ash are gradually being repaired, and the market focuses on the real - estate and photovoltaic industries [17]. Metal - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals continued to rebound. Although affected by short - term factors, long - term support factors remain. It is recommended to wait and see for silver [19]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the copper price may enter an adjustment phase [20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [21]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rose at night. The domestic aluminum price is high, but the downstream demand is weak before the Spring Festival. However, long - term factors support the price [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to trading opportunities after the volatility decreases [23][24]. Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke were weak at night. The demand for coking coal and coke is limited, but the downstream's pre - festival replenishment provides support [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply decreased slightly, and the demand weakened. The inventory increased, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate weakly [26]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore shipping and arrival increased, and the port inventory increased. The steel mill's replenishment is coming to an end, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fell at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is in progress, and the domestic supply is expected to be sufficient, which may put pressure on the price [28]. - **Oil**: The oil prices were weak at night. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the inventory is expected to decline, but the crude oil price affects the palm oil price. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [29]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar price was slightly stronger at night. The global sugar supply is in an over - supply situation, and the domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price fluctuated within a range. The textile factory's replenishment is coming to an end, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the direct subsidy policy [31]. - **Pork**: The pork price fell. The supply pressure increased, and the demand could not fully digest it. The pig price is expected to be weakly stable [32]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping European Line**: The EC price fell. The spot freight rate is relatively stable before the Spring Festival, and it is expected to be volatile. After the Spring Festival, it will face the verification of the photovoltaic export rush and the implementation of the price increase letter [33][34].

2025年初贵金属市场经历"断崖式暴跌"，芝加哥商业交易所突然上调保证金比例，特朗普提名鹰派人物执掌美联储，双重压力抽干市场流动性。 美国财长 贝森特却将锅甩给"中国交易员无序投机"。 但对比道琼斯指数冲破5万点被称"价值投资"，黄金上涨却被指"投机"，暴露了双重标准。 更深层的原因在于， 黄金涨势本质是全球资本对美元信用投出的"不信任票"。 而中国金库里2300吨实实在在的黄金，成了最硬的底气。 第二，上海黄金交易所香港国际板仓库启用，香港机场金库从200吨扩容到2000吨，打造出从交易到交割的完整链路。 第三，以低于市价20-50美元/盎司的 价格收购俄罗斯黄金，既帮俄方变现，又用折扣价夯实储备。 伊朗、委内瑞拉等被美元边缘化的国家，也开始探索"黄金换货币"的路径。 美国一边指责中国金融行为，一边不得不承认稀土供应中断导致高端制造业停摆。 特朗普访华前急着重启贸易谈判，寻求稀土合作。 这种"嘴上骂得凶，私 底下求和"的矛盾，暴露了美国产业链空心化的短板。 与此同时，沙特原油交易提升人民币结算比例，巴西推动央行对接人民币清算机制。 去美元化不是口 号，而是各国在贸易、储备、结算层面的真实行动。 西方依然掌握 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses a significant drop in international gold prices, which fell sharply after nearing a historical high of $5,600, resulting in the evaporation of trillions of dollars in market value within hours [1][4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant blamed China for the market turmoil, claiming that disorderly trading by Chinese investors disrupted the global precious metals market [8][10] - The article suggests that the extreme volatility in gold and silver prices is not merely a market reaction but rather a politically motivated intervention by the U.S. to maintain dollar hegemony [10][12] Group 2 - Data from the World Gold Council indicates that global central banks have net purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, with China's central bank increasing its reserves to over 2,300 tons [14][34] - The article highlights a broader trend of countries repatriating gold reserves, with nations like Germany and Poland also participating in this "gold repatriation movement" [25] - The narrative emphasizes that the U.S. is losing its absolute pricing power over gold, as evidenced by the need for administrative measures to stabilize the market [12][36] Group 3 - The article posits that the current financial landscape is characterized by a separation of pricing power and ownership, where the prices set by Wall Street are increasingly disconnected from the physical assets held by global central banks [36][41] - It argues that the ongoing volatility in gold prices serves as a warning signal about the weakening of the once-mythologized dollar system, indicating a shift towards a new financial order based on tangible assets [39][43] - The conclusion suggests that the rise in gold prices reflects a growing distrust in the dollar's credibility, with a new financial order centered around physical assets rapidly taking shape [43]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a slight drop followed by a rebound, with COMEX gold futures trading around $5,056 [1] - The performance of gold-related ETFs showed declines, with the Huaxia Gold ETF down 0.25%, the Nonferrous Metals ETF down 0.51%, and the Gold Stocks ETF down 1.23% [1] - Concerns over global debt and monetary policy are expected to benefit gold, as the U.S. national debt has surpassed $38.5 trillion, and the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill is projected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion [1] Group 2 - A weaker dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are identified as direct drivers for the rebound in gold prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, have shifted gold's safe-haven demand from a temporary impulse to a more sustained support [2] - The technical level of $5,000 has become a focal point for market dynamics, with long-term bullish sentiment on gold remaining intact despite potential short-term volatility [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses a significant drop in gold and silver prices, with silver losing half its value and gold futures dropping over 10% in a matter of hours, leading to massive losses for investors [3][5][10] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures, increasing the gold margin from 6% to 8% and silver from 11% to 15%, which drained market liquidity [7][8] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary pointed fingers at Chinese traders for the volatility, claiming their speculative actions disrupted global order, reflecting a narrative anxiety in the U.S. regarding its financial dominance [12][15][21] Group 2 - The article highlights that U.S. control over gold pricing is diminishing, as evidenced by the need for high-profile political interventions to stabilize market sentiment [17][19] - China has been increasing its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, with a total surpassing 2300 tons, indicating a shift towards physical assets as a hedge against financial instability [23][26] - The U.S. is facing challenges in its manufacturing sector due to reliance on Chinese rare earth supplies, which are critical for high-end manufacturing, showcasing the interconnectedness of financial and industrial strategies [34][36] Group 3 - The narrative suggests that the U.S. is attempting to maintain its financial hegemony through rule modifications, while China is focusing on accumulating physical resources, indicating a potential shift in global economic power dynamics [28][40][41] - The article posits that the future will not only be about currency competition but also about the battle for physical resources, with gold and rare earths emerging as new hard currencies [43]