不少人纳闷，央行为啥要这么执着买黄金？这背后藏着的大棋局，说出来恐怕让美国都坐不住！ 要说这增持的时机，那可是精准踩在节点上， 正好是美国大选尘埃落定，特朗普重返白宫之际。当时大家就预判，2025年美国的全球战略肯定要大改，果不其然，特朗普上台后又是逼着美联 储降息，又是在全球掀贸易战，国际金融市场瞬间变得波诡云谲。 最新数据一曝光，全网都看明白了：中国央行的黄金储备直接创下历史新高！截至去年12月，我们手里的黄金已经达到7415万盎司，折算下来差 不多2306吨，更关键的是，这已经是连续14个月疯狂增持了！ 中国这14个月不停囤黄金，说白了就是提前对冲风险！万一美国的激进政策引发金融海啸，我们手里有黄金这硬通货，心里就有底，国家金融安 全也能多一层实打实的保障。 更值得关注的是，现在地缘局势越来越紧张，尤其是台海方向。台当局频频搞事情，破坏两岸关系，让局势朝着 危险的方向发展，而咱们也在加快收台准备。 大家不妨想想，真到了收台的关键时刻，美国大概率会像对付俄罗斯那样，拉着盟友对咱们搞制裁，到时候手里的美债说不定就被冻结了。所以 央行一边狂买黄金，一边悄悄减持美债，都是未雨绸缪的关键动作。手里攥着更多"非主权 ...

1月13日盘中，伦敦黄金现货突破4600美元/盎司大关。据报道，花旗表示在基准情形下上调0-3个月目 标价至5000美元/盎司；State Street则称金价今年有高于30%的可能冲击该点位。短期地缘政治风险上行 推升了黄金的风险溢价，而下一步值得投资者关注的是地缘政治范式的改变；同时，"去美元化"叙事也 新增了鲍威尔被调查等催化；最后，新任联储主席或将配合行政部门超预期推动降息。 近期，多个区域的地缘政治风险上升，推升了黄金的风险溢价。 海外的一些投资机构开始交易"唐罗主义"（Donroe trade，即特朗普版的"门罗主义"），认为当前美国 行政部门的国际干涉行为将不止于委内瑞拉，从而开始提前交易和这些区域相关的金融产品。若果真如 此，则新的地缘政治风险或将进一步推动金价上行。 美国司法部启动对美联储主席鲍威尔的刑事调查，引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，料将继续推动"去 美元化"叙事，从而促进对黄金等替代性资产的整体需求。尽管美司法部称这是对美联储大楼翻修的资 金使用问题进行的调查，但鲍威尔于上周日发布的声明称调查他的真正原因在于"美联储没有按照总统 的偏好来制定利率政策"。我们认为，对鲍威尔的调查也是特 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the Chinese economy will enter a transformation phase dominated by new quality productivity, with a downward shift in the growth center and intensified external geopolitical competition [1] - Industry investment will focus on four main lines: technology self-reliance driven by new quality productivity, green transformation during the carbon peak period, the silver economy driven by population aging, and strategic resource allocation under the coordination of development and security [1] - Non-ferrous metals are expected to maintain strong performance, with gold being a core safe-haven asset under the "de-dollarization" pricing logic, while copper and aluminum will benefit from energy transition and supply constraints [1] Group 2 - The asset allocation strategy suggested is a dual-peak strategy: defensive allocation in high-dividend assets (such as hydropower, telecom operators, and state-owned banks) to secure stable cash flow returns, and offensive allocation in hard technology growth assets (such as semiconductor equipment, industrial software, and humanoid robots) to capture excess returns from domestic substitution and industrial upgrading [1] Group 3 - The AI industry is experiencing continuous catalysis, with significant commercial development potential for AI applications, particularly in generative search (GEO) [2] - In addition to content generation, content interaction is becoming an important breakthrough point, enhancing user engagement significantly, especially in gaming and other content sectors [2] Group 4 - The chemical industry, characterized as a typical cyclical industry, usually follows a five-year cycle consisting of four stages: profit upturn, capacity expansion, profit bottoming, and capacity clearance/improvement in demand expectations [3] - With capital expenditure growth turning negative, anti-involution, overseas interest rate cuts, and domestic demand expansion, the chemical industry is viewed positively at the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" as it enters a "dawn" phase [3] - The ongoing global technological revolution is accelerating, presenting new opportunities for material transformation [3]

Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's economy is expected to enter a transformation phase dominated by new quality productivity, with a downward shift in growth center and intensified external geopolitical competition [1] Group 1: Investment Focus Areas - Industrial investment will focus on four main lines: technology self-reliance driven by new quality productivity, green transformation during the carbon peak battle, the silver economy driven by population aging, and strategic resource layout under the coordination of development and security [1] - Non-ferrous metals are expected to maintain strong performance, while gold is viewed as a core safe-haven asset under the "de-dollarization" pricing logic; copper and aluminum will benefit from energy transition and supply constraints [1] Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategy - The asset allocation strategy suggests a dual-peak approach: defensive allocation in high-dividend assets (such as hydropower, telecom operators, and state-owned banks) to secure stable cash flow returns; offensive allocation in hard technology growth assets (such as semiconductor equipment, industrial software, and humanoid robots) to capture excess returns from domestic substitution and industrial upgrading [1]

当前的黄金市场正经历一场深刻的结构性转变。要理解这一点，我们必须首先澄清一个长期以来的普遍 误解：金价主要由通胀预期或美元实际利率决定。这一传统定价模型在2022年之后的全球金融市场中已 经多次失灵。例如，在美联储激进加息、美元实际利率大幅攀升的时期，金价不仅未应声下跌，反而展 现出令人惊讶的韧性。 孙立坚（复旦大学金融研究中心主任） 近期国际金价在争议声中不断刷新历史纪录，这种看似非理性的繁荣，实则是多重长期结构性力量汇聚 的结果。我们不应仅将目光停留在每日的价格跳动，而应穿透现象，去探究一个根本性的问题：当黄金 这一非生息资产在低利率环境下魅力不减，甚至在高利率时期依然强势时，这究竟意味着什么？ 这三类买家的共同特点是：买入并持有，极少在市场上进行短线交易。他们的存在，实质上从市场中长 期地锁定了大量实物黄金供应，改变了市场的流动性结构，使得金价对边际需求变化更加敏感，更容易 出现"轧空式"上涨。 在此背景下，多国央行增持黄金的逻辑变得清晰：黄金是唯一没有交易对手风险的储备资产。它不属于 任何国家的负债，不受任何国家的金融制裁直接影响，因此成为构建"去美元化"储备体系最理想的基 石。这一进程不是对美元地位 ...

孙立坚(复旦大学金融研究中心主任) 近期国际金价在争议声中不断刷新历史纪录，这种看似非理性的繁荣，实则是多重长期结构性力量汇聚的结果。我们不应仅将目光停留在每日 的价格跳动，而应穿透现象，去探究一个根本性的问题：当黄金这一非生息资产在低利率环境下魅力不减，甚至在高利率时期依然强势时，这 究竟意味着什么？ 当前的黄金市场正经历一场深刻的结构性转变。要理解这一点，我们必须首先澄清一个长期以来的普遍误解：金价主要由通胀预期或美元实际 利率决定。这一传统定价模型在2022年之后的全球金融市场中已经多次失灵。例如，在美联储激进加息、美元实际利率大幅攀升的时期，金价 不仅未应声下跌，反而展现出令人惊讶的韧性。 这种"反常"现象的背后，是全球央行作为"坚定买家"持续涌入市场。自2022年以来，全球央行年度净购金量持续保持在历史最高水平之上。这 些购买行为绝非基于短期的价格投机，而是战略性资产再配置的体现，反映出对以美元为核心的单极货币储备体系的深层次担忧。 各国央行购金潮的兴起，与当今国际货币体系正在经历的一场"静悄悄的地震"密切相关。布雷顿森林体系解体后建立的美元主导体系，正面临 多重结构性挑战。大国竞争加剧、"去风险化 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant shift in global financial markets, with the US dollar index dropping nearly 10% over the past 12 months, while the Chinese yuan has appreciated over 4% [1][15] - Central banks worldwide, excluding the US, have increased their gold reserves to a total value of $3.98 trillion, nearing the $3.8 trillion total value of US Treasury bonds, indicating a structural change in reserve asset allocation from bonds to gold [3][4] - The article emphasizes that gold is regaining its status as a primary financial asset, a position it has not held since 1996, marking a historical turning point in asset allocation [4][5] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has initiated a new cycle of gold purchases starting in November 2024, with total gold reserves projected to reach 7.415 million ounces (approximately 2306.39 tons) by December 2025, reflecting a strategic move amid a weakening dollar and rising geopolitical risks [8][10] - Over the past 14 months, China has sold approximately $79.9 billion in US Treasury bonds, a planned adjustment rather than a panic sell-off, with proceeds used for gold purchases and diversifying foreign exchange reserves [12][14] - The article discusses a long-term trend of de-dollarization, as evidenced by the significant reduction in China's US Treasury holdings, which have decreased by over 47% from their peak in November 2013 [12][14] Group 3 - The article outlines a strategic framework where increasing gold reserves enhances asset stability and diversity, while reducing reliance on US dollar assets and strengthening the yuan's international appeal [15][17] - The potential future scenarios include the Federal Reserve being forced to accelerate interest rate cuts, further weakening the dollar and increasing gold prices, or the emergence of a new reserve asset system where gold's status continues to rise [18][21] - The article concludes that the strategic adjustments made by China reflect a long-term vision, emphasizing the importance of maintaining reserve assets in the face of increasing global uncertainties [22][23]

ETF Industry News - The three major indices experienced fluctuations and declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.37%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.96%. However, several ETFs in the power equipment sector saw increases, including the Grid ETF (561380.SH) which rose by 7.37%, the Grid Equipment ETF (159326.SZ) which increased by 2.83%, and another Grid ETF (159320.SZ) which went up by 2.69% [1] - Gold and silver prices surged, with London spot gold reaching a high of $4610.68 per ounce, up over 2%, and silver rising more than 7% to surpass $85 per ounce. This led to a significant inflow of funds into gold ETFs, with net subscriptions exceeding 400 million shares in the first seven trading days of 2026. The Huaan Gold Easy ETF's scale reached 97.29 billion yuan, approaching the 100 billion yuan mark [2][3] - The first "trillion" asset manager in the ETF sector has emerged, with Huaxia Fund's ETF management scale surpassing 1 trillion yuan. This marks a significant milestone in the development of China's ETF market, which has grown from the launch of its first product in 2004 to now having over 60 trillion yuan in total ETF assets. The market is divided into three tiers, with the top three managers holding over 40% of the market share [4] Market Performance Overview - On January 13, the three major indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4138.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index at 14169.4 points, and the ChiNext Index at 3321.89 points. The Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng Index showed positive performance, with daily changes of 3.1% and 0.9%, respectively [5] - In terms of sector performance, the oil and petrochemical, pharmaceutical, and non-ferrous metal sectors ranked highest, with daily increases of 1.62%, 1.21%, and 0.91%, respectively. Conversely, the defense, electronics, and telecommunications sectors saw declines of 5.5%, 3.3%, and 2.88% [8] ETF Market Performance - The overall performance of ETFs was categorized by investment type, with cross-border ETFs showing the best average daily increase of 0.53%, while thematic stock ETFs had the worst performance with an average decline of 1.73% [11] - The top-performing ETFs included the Grid ETF (561380.SH), Oil and Gas Resources ETF (563150.SH), and Grid Equipment ETF (159326.SZ), with daily returns of 7.37%, 2.84%, and 2.83%, respectively [13] - The highest trading volumes were recorded for the A500 ETF (159352.SZ), with a transaction amount of 8.801 billion yuan, followed by the CSI A500 ETF (159338.SZ) at 8.701 billion yuan, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 ETF (588000.SH) at 6.940 billion yuan [17]

Market Overview - The three major indices collectively adjusted, with the Shenzhen Component Index falling over 1% and the ChiNext Index dropping nearly 2%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 49.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][9]. - A-share market has shown strong performance since the beginning of the year, with abundant liquidity and record-high trading volumes. Investor optimism for the first half of 2026 is supported by frequent catalysts in the technology sector, including IPOs in AI and semiconductors, and innovations in AI applications [10]. Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector led the gains today, with the Innovation Drug ETF (517110) rising by 2.69% and the Biopharmaceutical ETF (512290) increasing by 1.57%. This is attributed to several overseas innovative drug collaborations and catalysts [13][14]. - AI healthcare is experiencing global catalysts, with OpenAI integrating health dialogue features into ChatGPT, enhancing user access to health data [14]. Gold Market Insights - Spot gold prices in London surpassed $4,600 per ounce, with Citigroup raising its 0-3 month target price to $5,000 per ounce. State Street indicated a greater than 30% chance of gold hitting this target this year [11]. - Geopolitical risks have increased, driving up gold's risk premium. The U.S. administration is discussing potential interventions in Iran, which could escalate conflicts in the Middle East [12][11]. Electricity and Infrastructure - The electricity sector showed relative strength, driven by the upcoming National Grid meetings and ongoing power supply issues in North America. The approval of high-voltage direct current projects has accelerated since mid-2025, indicating strong demand for electricity infrastructure [15][6]. - The global energy transition is creating a need for enhanced electricity grid construction to support renewable energy integration, particularly in underdeveloped regions [15]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to consider the China Securities A500 ETF (159338) for broad exposure to leading companies across various sectors, and to adopt a "dumbbell" strategy focusing on technology and dividends to balance growth and volatility [10]. - For gold investments, options include direct investment in physical gold and gold ETFs that cover the entire industry chain [12]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward trend due to ample liquidity and high demand in the AI sector. However, a potential phase of correction may occur following rapid market gains [10]. - The pharmaceutical sector's global competitiveness is strengthening, with upcoming earnings announcements from innovative drug companies anticipated to act as catalysts [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent unilateral sanctions imposed by the U.S. aim to directly target Iran while also delivering precise strikes against China and Russia, attempting to force global alignment through trade tariffs [1] Trade Data Summary - In 2024, trade between China and Iran is projected to reach $13.37 billion, with China exporting $8.93 billion in essential goods and importing $4.44 billion primarily in energy and minerals [3] - Non-oil trade between China and Iran has also been significant, exceeding $30.4 billion in the first 11 months of 2025, with China being Iran's largest trading partner, accounting for over 30% of its total exports [3] - The trade between Russia and Iran is expected to reach $4.8 billion in 2024, marking a 16.2% year-on-year increase, with an additional 8% growth in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] Impact on China - The 25% tariff will primarily impact China's exports to the U.S., which are mainly machinery and electrical products with an average profit margin of less than 5%, leading to increased export costs [5] - However, China has already initiated currency settlement and "oil-for-infrastructure" models with Iran, mitigating risks associated with dollar transactions [5] - The trade volume between China and Iran represents only 2% of China's total trade with the U.S., allowing China to adjust its supply chain and expand into ASEAN markets to offset potential losses [5] Impact on Russia - The sanctions may accelerate cooperation between Russia and Iran, as their trade is primarily settled in rubles and rials, minimizing the impact of the U.S. dollar system [7] - Both countries are working towards a free trade agreement within the Eurasian Economic Union, aiming to increase their trade volume to $10 billion [7] - The sanctions will not disrupt the energy complementarity between Russia and Iran, as Russia can leverage Iran to access Middle Eastern energy routes while providing nuclear technology and military support to Iran [7] Consequences of U.S. Actions - The sanctions are likely to accelerate the de-dollarization process, with 95% of trade between China and Russia already settled in local currencies, making barter trade and local currency settlements more common among the three countries [7] - The unilateral sanctions may undermine U.S. international credibility, as many countries are likely to reject alignment with U.S. policies, with a Pew survey indicating that over half of the populations in 19 countries lack confidence in U.S. handling of international affairs [7] - The sanctions could lead to increased global oil prices, as Iran exports 1.4 million barrels of oil daily and Russia exports 7.4 million barrels, potentially disrupting global energy supply and exacerbating inflation in the U.S. [9]