Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is influenced by a combination of factors, including the weakening of the dollar, domestic economic fundamentals, and increased demand for currency exchange by foreign trade enterprises [4][5][12]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - On June 26, the RMB's central parity rate against the US dollar was set at 7.1620, an increase of 48 points from the previous trading day, reaching its highest point since November 2024 [1]. - The onshore and offshore RMB both showed a trend of appreciation, with the offshore RMB reaching 7.1525, the highest since November 8, 2024, and the onshore RMB peaking at 7.1570 [1]. - Year-to-date, the offshore RMB has appreciated approximately 2.3% against the US dollar, while the dollar index has declined over 10% [5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index has decreased from 102.09 to 95.92, a drop of 5.47%, indicating that the recent appreciation of the RMB against the dollar is more a result of dollar depreciation rather than inherent strength of the RMB [8]. - Analysts suggest that the RMB's appreciation is supported by a combination of domestic economic stability, flexible central bank operations, and the release of currency exchange demand [5][12]. - The willingness of foreign trade enterprises to accelerate currency exchange is a key driver of the current RMB appreciation, influenced by fluctuations in the dollar index and concerns over dollar credit [12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the RMB will continue to experience low volatility and gradual appreciation in the second half of the year, with the overall trend remaining positive [4][12]. - The ongoing "de-dollarization" trend globally is expected to further weaken the dollar, which may support the RMB's strength [14][15]. - The central bank's management of the RMB's exchange rate, particularly through the adjustment of swap premiums, indicates a cautious approach to avoid rapid appreciation [12][16].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the credibility of U.S. policies and fiscal sustainability are driving capital flows back to Asia, as investors seek to diversify away from U.S. dollar assets [1] Group 1: Capital Flows - The fear of a slowdown in the U.S. economy has led to a sell-off of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, prompting investors to look for non-dollar assets [1] - De-dollarization is particularly beneficial for Asian economies, allowing central banks to ease policy rates due to strong regional currencies [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The return of capital to Asia is expected to significantly boost Asian markets, as entities in Asia hold approximately $8.6 trillion in U.S. equities and fixed-income assets [1] - AllianzGI is optimistic about economies that are demand-driven and open to interest rate cuts, particularly highlighting China, India, and Australia as favorable investment destinations [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔在6月24日国会听证会的一席话，引发市场对美国经济数据质量的强烈质疑。鲍威尔直言，劳工统计局（BLS）因预算削减导致数据采集 能力下降，可能使通胀、就业等关键指标失真，进而影响美联储政策制定的准确性。这一表态加剧了市场对美国经济"虚假繁荣"的担忧，黄金市场在数据不 确定性中呈现震荡加剧态势。 一、数据质量危机：鲍威尔的"隐忧"与现实困境 在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，鲍威尔罕见地公开表达对经济数据可靠性的担忧。他指出，劳工统计局因特朗普政府削减预算，已暂停多个城市的CPI 数据采集，导致5月CPI估算值比例飙升至30%，远超正常水平的10%。这种"猜测性数据"可能掩盖经济真实状况，例如5月非农就业数据虽初报新增13.9万 人，但后续修正可能下修至10万人，显示就业市场实际表现弱于表面。 2. 经济"虚假繁荣"的隐忧 劳工统计局数据采集能力的削弱，可能导致经济指标呈现"伪健康"状态。例如，5月非农就业数据虽超预期，但家庭调查显示失业率上升、劳动参与率下 降，且联邦政府连续四个月裁员，暗示就业市场结构性恶化。更值得警惕的是，小企业因关税压力提交报告滞后，劳工统计局不得不依赖历史趋势插值，导 致初 ...

国泰海通证券策略首席方奕 随后做《看好中国 "转型牛"—— 2025 年中期中国权益资产投资策略展 望》主题演讲，表示 战略看多 2025 年 中国股市。第一，遍历冲击和出清调整后，投资人对经济形 势的认识已然充分，其对估值收缩的边际影响减小；第二，股票价格反映的是投资者对未来的预期， 而预期变动的主要矛盾已从经济周期的波动转变为贴现率的下降，尤其是无风险利率与风险认识的系 统性降低；第三，以化解债务、提振需求与稳定资产价格的中国政策 "三支箭"，以"投资者为本"的 资本市场改革，以新技术新消费的商业机会涌现，有助于重新提振投资者对长期的假设。在投资方向 的把控上， 方奕 认为新兴科技是主线，周期金融是 "黑马"。 6 月 25 日 ，国 泰君安期货 2025 年度中期策略会 在上海顺利开幕 。本次策略会以 " 观势明变， 本固枝荣 " 为主题， 特邀 15 位 重量级行业嘉宾 和 52 位 明星 分析师 发表精彩观点 。 上午 9 点 30 分，主论坛启幕， 国泰海通证券副总裁罗东原开场致辞。罗东原 表示 ，期货市场作 为多层次资本市场的重要一环，在扩大金融对外开放的时代背景下，必然将大有所为。国泰君安期货 ...

Group 1 - Allianz Investment indicates that the uncertainty in global markets is increasing due to the depreciation of the US dollar and rising risks of an economic recession in the US, leading to a shift in investor confidence and capital flows [1] - Concerns over the credibility of US policies and fiscal sustainability are driving capital towards Asia, strengthening regional currencies and creating new growth opportunities for the Asian economy [1] - Currently, Asian economies hold approximately $8.6 trillion in US bills and fixed-income assets, and any capital repatriation could significantly support regional currencies and enhance the performance of local stock and fixed-income markets [1] Group 2 - Allianz Investment expresses optimism for Asian economies driven by domestic demand, particularly China, India, and Australia, which have room for policy rate cuts and are less affected by specific political and economic concerns [2] - The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has shown significant gains compared to major US indices this year, with a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2, indicating attractive valuations in the Asian stock market [2] - Investment opportunities are abundant in the Asia Pacific stock market, especially in large, liquid markets with robust domestic demand, and investors are encouraged to diversify across growth, value, and dividend stocks while capitalizing on themes such as innovation and corporate governance reform [2]

2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 日 水 | | --- | | 国债: 4 | | C 股指: . | | 贵金属: רז ז | | 螺纹、热卷: 6 | | 铁矿石: 6 | | 焦煤 焦炭： . 1 | | 铁合金: 1 | | 原油: 8 | | 燃料油: C | | 合成橡胶: C | | 天然橡胶: C | | PVC: : : : : : : : : : : : : : | | 尿素: . 11 | | .. 11 对二甲苯 PX: | | PTA: . | | 乙二醇: . | | 短纤: .. | | 瓶片: .. | | 纯碱: .. | | 玻璃: 14 | | 烧碱: .. | | 纸浆: .. | | 碳酸锂: .. | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-26） | | | | | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量、到港量环比回升，整体处于近年来同期 高位水平，铁矿发运有冲量预期。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量增，铁水止 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 跌回升，铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 240 的高铁水仍旧能驱动港 | | | 铁矿石 | | 震荡 | 口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。铁矿石整体呈现供应逐步回升、需 | | | | | | 求相对低位、港口库存步入累库通道的局面，铁矿供需过剩格局不变。 唐 | | | | | | 山传出钢铁企业烧结机减产 30%的消息，对原料端需求有下移空间，若 | | | | | | 铁水破 240 万吨，铁矿后期将承压下跌。策略上，前期空单继续持有。 | | | | | | 煤焦：近日主产区环保检查升级，内蒙乌海及临汾地区停产煤矿及洗煤厂 | | | | | | 较多，供应端有所收缩。焦炭方面，随着焦煤价格下跌，焦企入炉 ...

港股三大指数集体低开，恒指开跌0.53%，恒科指开跌0.52%，国企指数开跌0.55%。 盘面上，中资券商股再度活跃，国泰君安国际涨超14%，弘业期货涨超5%。周六福上市首日开涨 11.25%。 后市研判 浦银国际指出，当前恒生指数的前瞻市盈率已达10.3倍，已经高于4月2日特朗普宣布"对等关税"前的水 平。预计港股阶段性估值修复或已基本完成， 估值进一步提升或需新的催化剂。 华泰证券认为，三季度港股或从此前上行趋势转为阶段震荡，但增配逻辑依然不改，因此逢低买入并持 有依然是可行操作。具体配置上，建议逢低增配科技(科技升级趋势下的硬科技，互联网及AI)、消费 (地产周期下半段的消费潜力修复，如互联网消费，医药，大众消费及农林牧渔等)，大金融(香港本地股 及中资股)等板块。 高盛表示，维持对港股的超配建议，国经济增长短期仍较有韧性，今年下半年政策对冲会明显加码。 国金证券指出，今年港股整体表现突出，各种板块、概念层出不穷，底层逻辑来自于便宜资产的长期低 估，大量内地优质资产在港IPO，提升了港股的资产质量，吸引了全球流动资金的关注、加持。另外， 去美元化的全球投资策略和美国降息预期对港股的流动性利好。据此我们对 ...

Group 1 - The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, has led to market fluctuations, but risk assets have rebounded after initial declines [1][2] - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, peaked at 22.17 during the conflict, significantly lower than the 52.33 recorded during previous trade tensions [2] - The conflict has resulted in a temporary ceasefire, with both Iran and Israel indicating a reduction in hostilities, which may stabilize market conditions [2] Group 2 - The "see-saw" effect between risk assets and safe-haven assets is evident, with U.S. stocks rebounding due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and easing geopolitical tensions, while gold and oil prices have retreated from highs [3] - As of June 23, the largest gold ETF, SPDR, held 957.4 tons of gold, approaching its previous high of 959.17 tons, indicating a gradual recovery in gold investment demand [3] - Historical trends suggest that U.S. stocks and the dollar may not move in tandem, with potential for both to decline simultaneously, challenging traditional market relationships [3][4] Group 3 - The current weak dollar may not benefit the U.S. economy as it has in the past, due to concerns over U.S. debt and trade policies, which could lead to capital outflows [4] - The weak dollar reflects market apprehension regarding U.S. fiscal policies, and without counteracting measures, it may accompany declines in U.S. stocks [4] Group 4 - Concerns over oversupply in the oil market are still present, but geopolitical tensions have caused temporary price spikes [5] - Iran's oil exports are currently at 1.6 million barrels per day, which has been factored into market pricing, limiting its impact on global supply [5] - Historical threats from Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz have not materialized due to practical constraints, suggesting that the oil market may stabilize despite geopolitical risks [5] Group 5 - The uncertainty in financial markets since the U.S. tariff increases in April has led to sustained support for gold prices, driven by ongoing geopolitical crises and a weakening dollar [6] - The lack of new catalysts for gold price increases, such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, may result in a period of high volatility without significant upward movement [6] - Investors are encouraged to utilize futures and options to hedge risks and capture opportunities in the gold market [6]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 26 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 在美国和卡塔尔的斡旋下以色列和伊朗勉强同意停火协议，同时美联储主席 鲍威尔国会作证时表示经济就业韧性使得美联储有条件继续按兵不动以观察关税 政策对通胀的真实影响，隔夜伦敦黄金一度回调至 3295 美元/盎司；但消息称美 国空袭并未摧毁伊朗的核心核能力而仅可能将其进程延后数月，且鲍威尔表示若 通胀确实受控则美联储愿意更早而不是更晚降息，因此伦敦黄金小幅反弹至 3300 美元/盎司上方。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局重组进入乱纪元模式，黄金的 ...