外界普遍预计，美联储将重启降息进程，因为美国就业市场正在发出警报信号。未来的宽松路径将受 到更多关注，一方面联邦公开市场委员会FOMC面临着政府方面的巨大压力，内部暗流涌动，另一 方面特朗普贸易政策的影响仍有待明朗，数据依赖立场是否会导致政策调整反应不及时冲击经济成为 焦点。 2025.09. 16 本文字数：2049，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间9月16日，为期两天的美联储议息会议在美国华盛顿特区正式召开。 经济展望如何变化 8月以来，美联储两大职责——通胀和就业双双持续承压，物价持续上涨的同时，就业市场开始降 温。这种 "有毒组合" 让滞胀风险升温，也使美联储陷入各国央行可能面临的最棘手局面之一。 上周数据显示，美国8月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.9%，创下今年 1 月以来的最高增幅。剔 除波动较大的食品和能源品类后，核心CPI同比增速在3.1%，显著高于美联储2%的通胀目标。 就业市场的裂缝更受到关注。过去一周，美国初请失业金人数升至2021年以来最高水平，续请失业 金人数则持续处于疫情以来高位，显示求职者找到就业岗位所需时间有所延迟。此前8月非农就业报 告显示，就业 ...

鲍威尔是否会释放连续降息信号。 当地时间9月16日，为期两天的美联储议息会议在美国华盛顿特区正式召开。 外界普遍预计，美联储将重启降息进程，因为美国就业市场正在发出警报信号。未来的宽松路径将受到 更多关注，一方面联邦公开市场委员会FOMC面临着政府方面的巨大压力，内部暗流涌动，另一方面特 朗普贸易政策的影响仍有待明朗，数据依赖立场是否会导致政策调整反应不及时冲击经济成为焦点。 经济展望如何变化 8月以来，美联储两大职责——通胀和就业双双持续承压，物价持续上涨的同时，就业市场开始降温。 这种 "有毒组合" 让滞胀风险升温，也使美联储陷入各国央行可能面临的最棘手局面之一。 就业市场的裂缝更受到关注。过去一周，美国初请失业金人数升至2021年以来最高水平，续请失业金人 数则持续处于疫情以来高位，显示求职者找到就业岗位所需时间有所延迟。此前8月非农就业报告显 示，就业岗位新增几乎陷入停滞，失业率攀升至4.3%。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）本月表示，在展现多年韧性后，美国经济目前正显现出一些承压迹象，具体 表现为国内需求放缓、就业增长减速。IMF发言人科扎克（Julie Kozack）指出，美国通胀正朝着美联 储 2% ...

Brandywine Global Investment Management债券投资组合经理Jack McIntyre表示："我的直觉告诉我是25基点。问题在于美联储在声明中是否会更多强调就 业而非通胀。" 本周FOMC利率决议，市场确信美联储至少降息25个基点，但这已经无法满足激进预期，投资者已经为延续至2026年的一系列降息进行了定价。 目前金融市场普遍倾向于认为， 就业形势的担忧将在本周利率决议中占据主导地位，美联储将传达鸽派基调。 市场已消化了美联储为避免经济衰退而将在 2026年前持续降息的预期，这种乐观情绪推动美债收益率跌至数月低位，美股屡创新高。 在债券市场，基准10年期美债收益率接近4月以来最低水平，标普500指数逼近历史高位，纳斯达克100指数刚刚录得一年多来最长连涨纪录。 然而，由于通胀水平仍高于目标，关税对价格的影响仍在发酵， 分析认为，美联储主席鲍威尔及其他官员可能发出信号，暗示投资者过于激进，从而引发资产 价格的重新定价。鲍威尔讲话和美联储官员利率预测"点阵图"是本次决议的关注重点。 25基点几成定局，50基点存在小概率可能 市场对本周三美联储降息25基点的预期已接近100%确定性 ...

Group 1 - The recent labor market data indicates a slowdown, with initial jobless claims rising to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, which has overshadowed sticky inflation data [2][3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.4% month-over-month, up from 0.2% in July, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [2] - Wall Street strategists believe the Federal Reserve faces a complex decision regarding interest rates due to the dual challenges of a slowing job market and persistent inflation [2][3] Group 2 - Despite concerns about the economy and labor market, strategists remain optimistic that artificial intelligence will drive a bull market in stocks through 2026 [4] - Oracle's strong AI backlog surprised investors, highlighting the strength of the technology sector [5] - UBS's global equity head forecasts further upside for the U.S. stock market, with a target of 6,600 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025 and 6,800 by mid-2026, driven by strong tech earnings and anticipated Fed rate cuts [5]

Group 1: US Economic Policy - The US non-farm employment figure was revised down by 911,000, averaging a decrease of nearly 76,000 jobs per month, marking the largest downward revision since 2000[1] - The August CPI in the US was 2.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations, while the core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year, also meeting expectations[1] - Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021[1] Group 2: Global Economic Trends - The European Central Bank held interest rates steady, indicating that inflationary pressures have been effectively contained[1] - Japan's second-quarter GDP was revised up to a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter increase, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2%[1] - Global stock markets and commodities showed positive performance, while US Treasury yields and the dollar index remained stable[1] Group 3: Market Predictions - The GDPNow model predicts a 3.1% annualized growth rate for the US GDP in the third quarter[1] - The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September decreased from 11.0% to 6.6%, while the expectation for the policy rate at the end of 2025 slightly decreased from 3.55% to 3.54%[1] - The latest employment and inflation data support the Federal Reserve's potential resumption of rate cuts, boosting expectations for monetary easing[1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the commodity index fluctuated and declined slightly. Industrial and agricultural products both weakened. The weak fundamentals dragged down the overall commodity trend in the first half - week, while the market risk appetite improved in the second half - week, driving the commodities to rebound. The demand in the peak season was not strong, and the commodities were likely to fluctuate weakly. There were both bullish and bearish factors at the macro - level, and the demand had not improved significantly at the fundamental level [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Review**: The commodity index fluctuated and declined slightly this week. Industrial and agricultural products weakened. The weak fundamentals in the first half - week and the improved risk appetite in the second half - week due to Fed rate - cut expectations and A - share rebound affected the commodity trend [3]. - **Overseas**: - In August, US inflation met market expectations. The CPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to rising prices of food, energy, and housing. A 25BP rate cut in September was the benchmark scenario, and the inflation upside risk was controllable. The weak employment market might be the Fed's focus [3]. - In the first week of September, the seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims in the US reached 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week, indicating a cooling labor market [3]. - The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged on September 11, 2025. The policy signal was "hawkish". The market's expectation of another ECB rate cut this year dropped to about 15%. In the short - term, the ECB was likely to stay put, while in the long - term, its policy stance was uncertain [3]. - **Domestic**: - In August, the new social financing scale was 2.57 trillion yuan, less than the same period last year but slightly higher than expected. New loans were 590 billion yuan, less than last year and in line with expectations. The real - economy financing demand was weak, and government net financing might become a drag. The rebound of resident and enterprise credit demand was crucial [3]. - In August, China's imports and exports in US dollars were lower than expected. Export momentum might weaken marginally, but there were still supporting factors such as global economic recovery and strong exports to Africa [3]. - **Commodity View**: With the peak demand season not living up to expectations, commodities were likely to fluctuate weakly. There were both bullish and bearish factors at the macro - level, and the demand had not improved at the fundamental level [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Inflation and Employment**: In August, US CPI increased year - on - year to 2.9%. The seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims in the first week of September increased significantly, and the labor market was cooling [3][7][10]. - **ECB Policy**: The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged on September 11, 2025. The policy signal was "hawkish", and the market's expectation of another rate cut this year dropped to about 15%. The future policy stance was uncertain depending on inflation and economic recovery [3][13]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Financial Data**: In August, new social financing and loans were lower than the same period last year. The real - economy financing demand was weak, and government net financing might affect future performance. The rebound of credit demand was key [3][17]. - **Foreign Trade Data**: In August, China's imports and exports in US dollars were lower than expected. Export momentum might weaken, but there were supporting factors [3][20]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: On September 5, the PTA operating rate was 78.28%, and the POY operating rate was 87.36%. In August and September, the operating rates of some industries showed certain changes [27][34]. - **Automobile Data**: In August and September, the sales of automobiles showed growth. For example, in August, the sales were 201.9 (units not specified), a 5.9% increase [34]. - **Agricultural Product Data**: On September 12, the price changes of some agricultural products were 0.75% and 0.14%, etc. [35].

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is experiencing stagnation due to significant layoffs in manufacturing, wholesale retail, and energy sectors, primarily attributed to tariffs imposed by President Trump, which have increased costs and hindered expansion plans [1][2] - The August non-farm payroll report indicated that the "goods-producing industries" were the main contributors to job declines, with only 22,000 jobs added in the month, and manufacturing alone losing 12,000 jobs [2] - Companies like John Deere reported substantial financial losses due to tariffs, with an estimated $300 million loss by 2025, leading to layoffs and a 26% year-over-year decline in net profit [2] Group 2 - There is a divide between the government and businesses regarding tariffs, with some companies claiming tariffs have prompted increased capital spending and future hiring, while others express uncertainty and a hiring freeze due to unpredictable policy changes [3] - The oil industry is facing dual pressures from tariffs and low oil prices, with significant layoffs occurring, including Chevron and ConocoPhillips planning to cut thousands of jobs [4][5] - Despite challenges, some executives remain optimistic that tariffs will ultimately benefit domestic industries, although they are also implementing layoffs and automation to maintain competitiveness [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is experiencing stagnation, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, indicating a slowdown in hiring due to trade tensions [1] - Manufacturing, wholesale retail, and energy sectors are particularly affected, with significant job losses reported [2] - Companies like John Deere have reported substantial financial losses due to tariffs, with a projected loss of $300 million by 2025, leading to layoffs [2] Group 2 - Uncertainty from fluctuating policies is causing companies to adopt a cautious approach, often leading to hiring freezes [3] - Executives from various sectors express that without stable policies and predictable costs, recruitment and expansion plans are on hold [3] - The Trump administration maintains that tariffs will ultimately boost employment by encouraging businesses to relocate operations back to the U.S. [4] Group 3 - Some companies report benefits from tariffs, claiming they help their business, while others highlight the negative impact on hiring and growth [4] - Economic experts argue that the manufacturing sector's struggles are due to demand slowdown and unresolved policy shifts rather than labor supply issues [4]

与此同时，美元在经历了自1973年以来最大的上半年跌幅后，反弹乏力，部分原因正是市场对美联储将 深度降息的预期。 本周FOMC利率决议，市场确信美联储至少降息25个基点，但这已经无法满足激进预期，投资者已经为 延续至2026年的一系列降息进行了定价。 目前金融市场普遍倾向于认为，就业形势的担忧将在本周利率决议中占据主导地位，美联储将传达鸽派 基调。市场已消化了美联储为避免经济衰退而将在2026年前持续降息的预期，这种乐观情绪推动美债收 益率跌至数月低位，美股屡创新高。 在债券市场，基准10年期美债收益率接近4月以来最低水平，标普500指数逼近历史高位，纳斯达克100 指数刚刚录得一年多来最长连涨纪录。 然而，由于通胀水平仍高于目标，关税对价格的影响仍在发酵，分析认为，美联储主席鲍威尔及其他官 员可能发出信号，暗示投资者过于激进，从而引发资产价格的重新定价。鲍威尔讲话和美联储官员利率 预测"点阵图"是本次决议的关注重点。 25基点几成定局，50基点存在小概率可能 市场对本周三美联储降息25基点的预期已接近100%确定性。Brandywine Global Investment Management 债券投资组合 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are focused on whether Federal Reserve officials will dismiss market expectations of an extended interest rate cut cycle into next year, with a strong bet on a 25 basis point cut this week and a potential continuation of cuts until 2026 to mitigate recession risks [1][4]. Market Reactions - The anticipation of rate cuts has driven U.S. Treasury yields to multi-month lows, boosted the stock market to historical highs, and exerted pressure on the U.S. dollar [1][4]. - The S&P 500 index is nearing historical highs, while the Nasdaq 100 index recently achieved a new record after a prolonged rally [4]. Bond Market Insights - The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen to its lowest level since April, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards bonds [4]. - Jack McIntyre from Brandywine Global Investment Management has increased his bond holdings, particularly in 30-year Treasuries, anticipating that signs of a weakening job market may prompt investors to believe that the Fed's easing timing is overdue [4]. Volatility Expectations - Some stock traders are hedging against potential volatility, as the expectation of a 25 basis point cut is already reflected in current stock prices, with options traders predicting about a 1% two-way movement in the S&P 500 index [7]. - Gareth Ryan from IUR Capital emphasizes the importance of the Fed's dot plot in determining market reactions, suggesting that ambiguity regarding future rate cuts could lead to greater market volatility [7]. Political Pressures - Investors are aware of the pressures the Fed faces, including criticism from former President Trump regarding the pace of rate cuts, and the potential influence of Trump's economic advisor Stephen Moore on the upcoming policy decision [8]. - The voting composition of the Fed during the upcoming meeting will be scrutinized for clues, with any dissenting votes against a 25 basis point cut seen as a hawkish signal [8].