就在上周五（8月22日），美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的讲话，彻底点燃了全球市 场的狂欢按钮——道琼斯工业指数单日飙升2.2%创下历史新高，标普500指数上涨1.52%，纳斯达克综 合指数也大涨1.88%，连一向对政策敏感的2年期美债收益率都直线跳水近10个基点至3.69%，美元指数 更是单日下挫0.94%！ 这一切的引爆点，正是鲍威尔那句"风险平衡的转变可能需要调整政策立场"的表态。要知道，就在讲话 前一天（8月21日），美股还在五连跌的阴霾里——标普500指数连跌五天，纳指三连跌，市场都在屏息 等待这场"央行界春晚"的信号。结果话音刚落，利率期货市场瞬间把9月降息25个基点的概率从75%飙 升到了91.3%，几乎笃定"降息大局已定"。 今天我们就来拆解这场狂欢背后的关键问题： 1. 鲍威尔的讲话究竟释放了哪些"鸽派密码"？ 2. 为什么市场会如此激进地押注9月降息？ 3. 当美股、债市、黄金集体上涨的狂欢过后，又有哪些被忽略的风险信号？ 毕竟，从历史规律看，美联储政策转向从来不是单向直线——这次"风险平衡的转变"，真的会如市场所 愿开启降息周期吗？狂欢之下，或许藏着更值得警惕的答案。 鲍威尔 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September, marking a significant shift towards a global low-interest-rate environment, which will have substantial impacts on various asset classes including U.S. Treasuries, gold, foreign exchange, and China's real estate and stock markets [2][5][11] - Powell's recent statements indicate a pivot from a hawkish to a dovish stance, suggesting that the Fed may prioritize employment concerns over inflation, leading to a near certainty of a rate cut in September [5][9] - The change in Powell's position is attributed to two main factors: continuous pressure from President Trump and alarming employment data that revealed a significant slowdown in job growth, prompting the Fed to reconsider its monetary policy [7][9] Group 2 - The market reacted positively to the news of a potential rate cut, with major U.S. stock indices and gold prices experiencing significant increases, indicating a bullish sentiment in global capital markets [4][11] - The anticipated 25 basis point rate cut in September is expected to further devalue the U.S. dollar, which could stimulate global economic recovery and encourage capital to flow into emerging markets [11][12] - The historical context of the Fed's previous rate cuts in September 2018 suggests that a similar response from China could follow, potentially leading to a series of economic stimulus measures that would enhance growth prospects [14][15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore's short - term valuation is still supported by macro and micro factors [2][4]. - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8][12][15]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Futures price closed at 770 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan or 0.32%, and the position increased by 1,051 lots to 452,625 lots. Imported ore prices generally declined, and some domestic ore prices remained stable. Basis and spreads had various changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Activity at the SimFer mine site is suspended due to a fatal incident. Fed Chair Powell indicated a possible September rate cut [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,119 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.35%, with a position decrease of 46,508 lots. Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,361 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 0.86%, with a position decrease of 49,335 lots. Spot prices mostly declined, and basis and spreads also changed [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the week of August 21, rebar production decreased by 5.8 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.65 tons. In July, national crude steel production was 79.66 million tons, down 4.0% year - on - year [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5,642 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. Silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged. Spot prices and various spreads had different changes [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 22, silicon 72 and 75 prices in different regions were reported, and silicon manganese 6517 prices decreased. From January to July, the average monthly import of South African manganese ore increased by 6.71% year - on - year [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Coking coal JM2601 closed at 1,162 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. Coke J2601 closed at 1,678.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan. Spot prices and basis had various changes [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed Chair Powell indicated a possible September rate cut [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The 2509 contract's closing price decreased by 0.4% daily and 1.2% weekly. The 2511 contract's trading volume increased by 49.2% daily and 70% weekly. Spot prices of most log types remained stable [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed Chair Powell indicated a possible September rate cut [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [21].

新华社华盛顿8月22日电 综述｜鲍威尔暗示降息 通胀就业难平衡 新华社记者徐静 通常来说，高通胀要求美联储保持高利率，而就业市场放缓将推动其降低利率。但观察人士认为，尽管 就业市场疲软与政治压力构成降息推力，但通胀黏性与政策滞后效应使美联储倾向于"以时间换空间"， 今年以来在货币政策方面一直"按兵不动"。 美国就业市场7月明显降温。美国劳工部8月份公布的数据显示，7月美国失业率环比升高0.1个百分点至 4.2%，当月非农业部门新增就业岗位7.3万，表现逊于市场预期的11万。 美国7月份通胀压力维持6月份以来的上升势头，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月份核心消费者 价格指数同比上涨3.1%，远高于美联储制定的2%目标。 在美联储内部，降息信号引来质疑。圣路易斯联储银行行长阿尔伯托·穆萨莱姆22日表示，目前美国通 胀高于美联储2%的目标，就业市场的风险也尚未真正到来，在决定支持美联储9月降息之前，需要更多 数据支撑。 克利夫兰联储银行行长哈马克22日接受美国电视新闻网采访时表示，美国通胀仍然过高，且过去一年呈 上升态势。她说，只要通胀仍然构成威胁，就会对降息继续持犹豫态度。 美国总统特朗普此前多次施压鲍威尔降 ...

来源：滚动播报 但鲍威尔同时强调，货币政策没有预设路径，联邦公开市场委员会成员将完全基于对数据的评估，以及 这些数据对经济前景和风险平衡的影响来作出决策。这意味着8月非农就业和消费者价格指数数据将成 为9月货币政策的关键变量。 通常来说，高通胀要求美联储保持高利率，而就业市场放缓将推动其降低利率。但观察人士认为，尽管 就业市场疲软与政治压力构成降息推力，但通胀黏性与政策滞后效应使美联储倾向于"以时间换空间"， 今年以来在货币政策方面一直"按兵不动"。 美国就业市场7月明显降温。美国劳工部8月份公布的数据显示，7月美国失业率环比升高0.1个百分点至 4.2%，当月非农业部门新增就业岗位7.3万，表现逊于市场预期的11万。 美国7月份通胀压力维持6月份以来的上升势头，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月份核心消费者 价格指数同比上涨3.1%，远高于美联储制定的2%目标。 在美联储内部，降息信号引来质疑。圣路易斯联储银行行长阿尔伯托·穆萨莱姆22日表示，目前美国通 胀高于美联储2%的目标，就业市场的风险也尚未真正到来，在决定支持美联储9月降息之前，需要更多 数据支撑。 克利夫兰联储银行行长哈马克22日接受美国电视新 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential interest rate cut in the coming months despite rising inflation risks [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool showed nearly 90% market expectation for a rate cut in September following Powell's speech [1] - Powell emphasized that monetary policy decisions will be based on data assessments, making upcoming employment and consumer price index data critical for September's policy [1] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market showed signs of cooling in July, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% and non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, below the expected 110,000 [2] - Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, significantly above the Fed's 2% target, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2] - Some Federal Reserve officials expressed skepticism about rate cuts, citing ongoing inflation concerns and the need for more data before supporting a September rate reduction [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium serves as a significant platform for discussing global economic issues, influencing market expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy, particularly in terms of interest rate adjustments and inflation outlooks [1][6][19]. Group 1: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Insights - The symposium is hosted annually by the Kansas City Fed in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and includes central bank governors, finance ministers, and academic and financial professionals [1][6]. - In the 2022 meeting, Fed Chair Powell adopted a hawkish stance, emphasizing the need for aggressive rate hikes to combat high inflation, which subsequently led to a faster pace of U.S. interest rate increases [1][6]. - The 2023 meeting saw Powell indicating a more cautious approach, stating that the Fed would proceed carefully, which resulted in a halt to further rate increases [1][6][7]. Group 2: Powell's 2025 Speech Highlights - In his 2025 speech, Powell expressed a dovish outlook, suggesting that changes in economic prospects and risk balances may necessitate adjustments in the Fed's policy stance [2][8]. - He noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation might be relatively short-lived, indicating a potential for inflationary pressures to stabilize [2][10]. - Powell highlighted that while the labor market appears balanced, it is characterized by a significant slowdown in both labor supply and demand, increasing the risk of layoffs and rising unemployment [2][11]. Group 3: FOMC Long-Term Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy - The FOMC released a new statement modifying its long-term goals, removing references to the "zero lower bound" and emphasizing the use of all policy tools to achieve dual objectives of maximum employment and price stability [3][12]. - The statement shifted from a flexible average inflation targeting strategy back to a simpler inflation targeting approach, indicating a return to traditional inflation management [3][12][13]. - The FOMC's focus has now shifted to promoting "maximum employment," allowing for more flexibility in policy adjustments without being constrained by perceived employment gaps [3][12][13]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The dovish tone from Powell increased the probability of a September rate cut, with market expectations reflecting an 84% chance of a rate reduction following the Jackson Hole meeting [5][19]. - Following the meeting, U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.89%, the S&P 500 by 1.52%, and the Nasdaq by 1.88%, indicating positive market sentiment towards potential rate cuts [5][19]. - Key economic indicators, such as employment data and inflation expectations, remain critical in shaping future monetary policy decisions, with the Fed closely monitoring these metrics [4][14][20].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 4.25-4.50% year-to-date, with a focus on achieving full employment and controlling inflation, targeting a 2% inflation rate [2][3] - Recent economic trends show a cooling labor market alongside rising inflation due to tariff initiatives, raising questions about a potential 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming September meeting [3][8] - The Fed's decision-making process is heavily reliant on economic data, with the next Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report due shortly after Powell's speech, which is expected to be data-dependent [6][8] Group 2 - The June PCE report indicated a headline inflation rate of +2.6%, which is moving away from the Fed's +2% target, while core PCE remained at +2.8% for two consecutive months [7][8] - The market showed positive movement in pre-market futures, with the S&P 500 attempting to break a five-session losing streak, reflecting adjustments in tech stock valuations and retail earnings amid tariff considerations [9]

Group 1 - The recent trends in the gold market are influenced by both news and technical factors, with the Federal Reserve's policy direction being the largest uncertainty [1] - The latest meeting minutes indicate that most officials prefer to keep interest rates unchanged, while a minority suggests early rate cuts, leading to an 85% market bet on a rate cut in September [1] - The internal discussion within the Federal Reserve about adjusting the inflation target framework could lead to a hawkish interpretation by the market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economic performance shows contradictions, with July's CPI at 2.7% and core CPI at 3.0%, still above the Fed's 2% target, while the job market is weakening, with August non-farm payrolls at 73,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2% [3] - The market sentiment reflects a scenario where inflation is not fully stabilized, but employment is declining, contributing to frequent fluctuations in gold prices [3] - Institutional trading patterns are evident, with gold prices experiencing sharp rises and falls, attributed to high-frequency trading [3] Group 3 - Technically, gold remains in a consolidation range, with daily fluctuations between $3,325 and $3,352 per ounce, and resistance levels at $3,348, $3,355, and $3,360 [4] - Support levels are identified at $3,330, $3,325, and $3,310, with the daily pattern showing solid support below but insufficient bullish momentum [4] - Short-term indicators suggest a balanced state between bulls and bears, with MACD showing a bullish crossover but diminishing volume [4] Group 4 - The potential volatility from Powell's speech is significant, with a hawkish tone possibly driving prices below $3,325 towards $3,310 or even $3,300 [6] - A dovish tone could push prices up to the $3,360 to $3,370 range, while a neutral stance may keep prices within the $3,330 to $3,350 range [6] - Position sizing and risk management are crucial, with recommendations to limit single positions to 1%-2% of the account and to adjust positions before major announcements [6]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at the global central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which is viewed as a critical moment for the future direction of monetary policy [1] - Market expectations are high for Powell to confirm the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with a 73.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut during the September 16-17 meeting according to CME FedWatch [1] - Recent volatility in U.S. stock markets is noted, with the Nasdaq index down 2.4% for the week, the S&P 500 down 1.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.4% [1] Group 2 - Analysts warn that if Powell does not commit to or suggest that market expectations are excessive, it could lead to significant repricing of bond yields and risk assets [1] - Support for a rate cut is based on moderate consumer price increases due to tariffs and signs of cooling in the job market, but there are concerns about rising inflation as wholesale prices recorded their largest increase in three years [1] - Political pressure on Powell is increasing, with President Trump criticizing the Fed's slow rate cuts and calling for the resignation of Fed Governor Cook over alleged mortgage application fraud [2]