文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） (1) 直接投资宽基。 行业指数一共有11个,例如消费、医药、金 融、能源等等。 每一家上市公司,都会有自己所归属的一个 行业。 第四类是主题指数。 例如科技、新能源、养老等,通常是包含几 个行业中、跟对应主题相关的公司。 如果刚开始接触指数基金，可以从宽基指数 入手了解。掌握了投资知识后，再延伸到其 他几类指数。 比较常见的指数投资搭配，有以下几种: (3) 投资策略指数,要注意风格搭配。 A股有成长、价值风格轮动的特点。 例如2019-2020年是成长风格更强势,2021 -2024年价值风格强势,2025年又是成长风 格强势。 例如最经典的沪深300+中证500,覆盖了A 股规模最大的800家上市公司。 去年中央汇金为首的国家队，投资了几千亿 的 ETF,其中买入最多的就是沪深300+中证 ---- 500。 如果还想增加小盘股，对应的是中证1000、 中证2000。 如果同时投资沪深300+中证500+中证1000+ 中证2000,那效果会跟中证全指类似。 (2) 投资行业/主题指数，注意配置比例。 行业主题的波动会更大,投资的时候注意控 制好单个行业/主题的配 ...

大家好，我是银行螺丝钉，欢迎来到这期的螺丝钉带你读书。 「螺丝钉带你读书」也陪伴大家度过了三百多期，为大家讲解了很多有趣、经典的书籍和故事，比如《三十几岁，财务自由》、《如何读一本 书》、《战胜拖延症》等等。 第一篇： 《 散户真的能击败机构么：彼得·林奇的投资秘诀 》 基金投资中的风格轮动 今天螺丝钉带你读书，介绍的，是美国传奇基金经理，彼得·林奇的《战胜华尔街》。 上一篇我们介绍了，在投资中，散户也具备一些独特的"不对称优势"，发挥这些优势，可以帮助我们提高收益。 这一篇，我们介绍的是基金投资中的风格轮动。 市场上常见的基金风格 在《战胜华尔街》书中，彼得·林奇作为基金经理，也分析了，市场上常见的几种基金风格。 还为大家详细介绍了几位投资大师：股神巴菲特、他的好搭档查理芒格和指数基金之父约翰博格。分享了他们的人生经历、投资生涯和投资的理 念。 大家可以点击下面链接查看部分螺丝钉带你读书合集： 《 世界读书日，螺丝钉送你103本私藏经典好书 》 往期回顾： （1）均衡风格 代表是彼得·林奇。 兼顾成长和价值，在行业配置上也比较分散。 像彼得·林奇，从业生涯中，调研过数千家上市公司，横跨多种不同的行业。 持仓 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 2024年12月，个人养老金账户可投资品种中，首次纳入了指数基金。 有朋友问，个人养老金账户里可以投资的指数基金具体有哪些， 都有啥特点，该如何选择搭配呢？ 螺丝钉是如何投资养老指数基金的？ 针对大家的这些疑问，螺丝钉也通过直播课，进行了讲解。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0225 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 个人养老金，属于养老第三支柱 之前给大家介绍过，养老有 三大支柱（点击查看详情）。 个人养老金账户，就属于第三支柱。 是在社保养老金（第一支柱，国家补贴养老）、企业年金（第二支柱，企业补贴养老）之外，自己为自己做养老储备。 2022年，国家出台了个人养老金制度。 每人自愿开设一个「个人养老金账户」。 每年最多可以往这个账户里，存入12000元。平时不能随意支取，通常是退休后取用，相当于一个超长封闭期的养老投资计划。 投入个人养老金账户中的钱， 可以在做个税缴纳的时候，从应纳税所得额中扣除。 等到退休后取用的时候再缴税，但税率比较低，为3%。 一般来说，个税税率≥10%的朋友，参与会更划算。 就目前来说，个人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of two significant events on the A-share market: the opening of the Two Sessions and the escalation of the US-China tariff conflict. It highlights the historical performance of various sectors during and after the Two Sessions, suggesting potential investment opportunities in specific industries. Market Overview - A-shares experienced a mixed performance with over 4,000 stocks rising, particularly in the semiconductor and military sectors [1][2] - The trading volume in the market decreased significantly, with total transactions falling below 1.5 trillion [2] - The military, semiconductor, and precious metals sectors led the gains in the market [2] Two Sessions Impact - The Two Sessions are scheduled from March 5 to March 11, with historical data indicating that markets typically experience volatility followed by upward trends, especially in small-cap growth stocks [3][4] - Small-cap indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 saw increases of over 1% today, confirming the trend of small-cap stocks outperforming [4] Tariff Conflict - The US announced a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods, citing fentanyl concerns, prompting China to respond with its own tariffs on certain US imports starting March 10 [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the tariff measures may shift market preferences towards value and dividend stocks, while the absence of further tariff announcements could benefit growth stocks in the short term [7] Investment Strategy - Historical analysis shows that sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and consumer goods have a high probability of performing well during the Two Sessions, with specific probabilities of 60% for TMT and 70% for beauty and personal care sectors [10] - Post-Two Sessions, the consumer sector, particularly home appliances, has a 70% probability of rising [10][12] - The article emphasizes a balanced investment approach focusing on technology, consumer, and dividend stocks, particularly in sectors showing signs of recovery and policy support [13][15]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The framework identifies the dominant market style by comparing asset characteristics based on their intrinsic attributes and industry life cycle stages. It evaluates assets using the priority sequence of growth (g) > return on equity (ROE) > dividend yield (D) to determine the most advantageous sectors[5][6][7] - **Model Construction Process**: - Classifies assets into five style stages: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and distressed value[5] - Prioritizes mainstream assets (actual growth, expected growth, profitability) over secondary assets, with secondary asset priority determined by crowding levels[7] - Uses metrics such as Δg (actual growth momentum), Δgf (expected growth momentum), PB-ROE (valuation), and DP (dividend yield) to evaluate and rank assets[6][7] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has demonstrated strong explanatory power for A-share market style rotations since 2009, achieving an annualized return of 26.85%[14] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the momentum of actual growth by evaluating the change in net profit growth rates (Δg)[18] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculates the spread between the top and bottom quintiles of industries based on net profit growth rates[18] - Δg > 0 indicates strengthening growth momentum, while Δg < 0 signals weakening momentum[18] 2. Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures analysts' optimism by assessing changes in expected net profit growth rates (Δgf)[21] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Similar to Δg, calculates the spread between the top and bottom quintiles of industries based on expected net profit growth rates[21] - Δgf > 0 indicates increasing optimism, while Δgf < 0 suggests declining optimism[21] 3. Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates asset quality by combining ROE with valuation metrics (PB-ROE)[22] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Ranks industries based on ROE and PB-ROE residuals[30] - Identifies high ROE industries with low valuations for allocation[30] 4. Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP+ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and ROE to identify high-quality dividend-paying industries[33] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Scores industries based on DP and ROE, selecting the highest-scoring sectors for allocation[33] 5. Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP+BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and book-to-price ratio (BP) to identify undervalued dividend-paying industries[36] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Scores industries based on DP and BP, selecting the highest-scoring sectors for allocation[36] 6. Factor Name: Distressed Value (PB+SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies distressed industries with low price-to-book ratios (PB) and small market capitalization (SIZE)[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Scores industries based on PB and SIZE, selecting the lowest-scoring sectors for allocation[38] --- Backtesting Results of Models and Factors 1. Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Annualized Return**: 26.85% since 2009[14] - **Excess Returns**: Positive in most years, with notable outperformance in 2020 (44%), 2021 (38%), and 2022 (62%)[15] 2. Actual Growth Factor - **Recent Performance**: Δg turned negative, indicating weakening growth momentum and reduced opportunities for actual growth strategies[18] 3. Expected Growth Factor - **Recent Performance**: Δgf turned negative, signaling a halt in analysts' optimism and limited opportunities for expected growth strategies[21] 4. Profitability Factor - **Recent Performance**: ROE advantage continues to decline, but reduced crowding levels suggest potential opportunities in a weakening growth environment[22][24] 5. Quality Dividend Factor - **Recent Performance**: Outperformed in 2016, 2017, and 2023; recent recommendations include sectors like "Other Home Appliances" and "Service Robots"[33] 6. Value Dividend Factor - **Recent Performance**: Outperformed in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023; recent recommendations include sectors like "Pet Food" and "Security"[36] 7. Distressed Value Factor - **Recent Performance**: Outperformed in 2015-2016 and 2021-2023; recent recommendations include sectors like "Other Electronic Components" and "Printing and Dyeing"[38]