Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, have led to fluctuations in WTI crude oil prices, which reached a peak of $78.4 per barrel. Morgan Stanley outlines three scenarios that could influence future oil price movements [1]. Scenario Analysis - Scenario One: If military conflict does not disrupt oil flow and exports remain unaffected, Brent crude oil prices could fall to the $60 per barrel range [4]. - Scenario Two: A significant reduction in Iranian exports could eliminate global supply surplus, leading oil prices to stabilize between $75 and $80 per barrel [4]. - Scenario Three: If the conflict poses risks to broader Gulf region oil exports, high oil prices similar to those seen in 2022 could re-emerge [5]. Historical Context - In 2022, international oil prices peaked at around $140 per barrel due to the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by a decline influenced by OPEC production cuts and U.S. strategic oil reserve releases, with prices dropping to a low of $70 by year-end [1]. Inflation Transmission Effects - The impact of oil price fluctuations on global inflation varies by region. In the U.S., a permanent 10% increase in oil prices only raises core inflation by a few basis points, while in the Eurozone, the same increase could raise core inflation by approximately 0.25 percentage points [3][7]. - The U.S. is positioned as the largest oil producer, which mitigates the inflationary impact of rising oil prices on its economy, although higher prices may still pressure consumer spending and growth [7]. Recent Price Movements - Despite recent increases, the rise in Brent crude oil prices from around $60 per barrel in early May to nearly $80 per barrel is relatively moderate compared to earlier peaks in January [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since January 20th when Trump took office, the ratio of SP contract price to NR contract price has strengthened from 0.39 to 0.43. Pulp's resistance to decline and the opportunity to stabilize after negative factors are realized are worth attention [66]. - The weak macro - environment suppresses both the upstream import and downstream export of pulp, resulting in relatively less negative impact on pulp in a weak pattern [66]. - The impact of the temporary shutdown of Finnpulp's Joutseno plant is limited. The long - fiber import volume has increased compared to the same period last year, which will offset the impact of the shutdown [71]. - The import, inventory, and consumption data of hardwood pulp show a trend of tightening balance, but hardwood pulp is still weak. It is advisable to wait and see the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [71]. - The operating conditions of the domestic papermaking industry have an increasing influence on pulp prices, but the current domestic data is not consistently bearish or bullish [71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Technical Analysis - Pulp - Rubber Spread and Commodity Turnover Rate - Since June, the communication between Chinese and US leaders and high - level consultations in London have eased trade relations, reducing negative factors for commodities. However, the reduction of negative factors for pulp is relatively small, and there is still an opportunity to enter the market when the spread reaches the previous low [6]. - Israel's full - scale attack on Iran this week led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The commodity turnover rate on June 13th verified that the 84% correlation between pulp and crude oil comes from consistent downstream consumption expectations. When crude oil price changes are due to supply, the impact on pulp is small; when due to consumption, the guidance for pulp price is strong [6]. 3.2 SP Single - Side - US Policy and International Oil Price - From June to now, the US economic policy uncertainty index has declined for the second consecutive month, reaching 432.6 points. Its 12 - month average increased by 77.1% year - on - year, hitting a new high since April 2021, with 12 consecutive months of expanding growth, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. - In May, international oil prices decreased month - on - month, reaching $62.8 per barrel. Its 3 - month average decreased by 23.9% year - on - year, with 4 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. 3.3 SP Single - Side - International Trade & Dollar Index - In May, China's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching $529 billion. Its 6 - month cumulative value increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for SP valuation [19]. - In May, the real broad - based dollar index decreased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 116.6 points. Its 9 - month average increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with 15 consecutive months of marginal increase. The general cycle of the dollar index is 23 months, which is negative for SP single - side [19]. 3.4 SP Single - Side - Canadian Trade and Global Stock Market - In April, Canada's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching 128 billion Canadian dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. It lags behind pulp prices and the negative impact has been fully realized [26]. - In April, the global stock market capitalization increased slightly month - on - month, reaching $119.9 trillion. Its 12 - month cumulative value increased by 7.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth [26]. 3.5 SP Single - Side - Softwood Data - The Joutseno softwood pulp mill of Finnpulp has temporarily shut down. In May, the inventory of European bleached softwood pulp decreased month - on - month to 238,000 tons, and consumption increased by 269,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. - In April, domestic softwood chip imports remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp imports decreased month - on - month to 838,000 tons. The total long - fiber import was 843,000 tons. The 6 - month cumulative value decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of narrowing decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. 3.6 Inventory - SP Single - Side & Hardwood - Softwood Spread - In May, the social inventory of pulp in ports including Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, and Tianjin increased month - on - month to 2.159 million tons. The SP inventory decreased month - on - month to 275,200 tons. The total of social and futures inventory was 2.434 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, which is negative for SP single - side and has been fully realized [39]. - In May, the ratio of social inventory to futures inventory was 7.84 times. Its 6 - month average increased by 35.4% year - on - year, which is negative for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread but with limited amplitude [39]. 3.7 SP Single - Side - Import and Export - In May, the domestic pulp import value increased month - on - month to $1.906 billion. In April, the US pulp import value decreased month - on - month to $308 million. The combined value (with a one - month lag) was $2.214 billion. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [46]. - In May, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 5.4% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline [46]. 3.8 SP Single - Side - Domestic Papermaking Output and Inventory - In April, the electricity consumption of the domestic papermaking industry decreased month - on - month to 838 million kWh. The 12 - month cumulative electricity consumption increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with 9 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is negative for SP single - side [53]. - In April, the finished product inventory of the domestic papermaking industry increased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 77.57 billion yuan. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with 13 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase [53]. 3.9 Hardwood - Softwood Pulp Spread - Import and Output - In April, the import of hardwood chips was 994,000 tons, the lowest since August 2023. The import of hardwood pulp decreased to 1.204 million tons, softwood chips remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp decreased to 838,000 tons. The ratio of short - fiber to long - fiber import was 2.02 times. Its 12 - month average increased by 13.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [59]. - In May, the consumption of hardwood pulp in domestic papermaking was 2.274 million tons, and that of softwood pulp was 534,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times. Its 9 - month average increased by 7.1% year - on - year, with 7 consecutive months of expanding growth [59].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, particularly focusing on the impact of military actions on the oil and shipping sectors, highlighting significant price increases in shipping rates and potential implications for oil prices [1][4][10]. Group 1: Military Actions and Responses - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Iran's nuclear and missile projects have been "severely damaged," and Israel's objectives are "very close to completion" [1][4]. - Following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran's leadership indicated that they would not engage in diplomatic negotiations before retaliating [1][4]. - The Iranian parliament has suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil trade, although the final decision rests with Iran's Supreme National Security Council [7][10]. Group 2: Impact on Shipping and Oil Prices - The A-share shipping sector experienced a significant surge, with companies like China Merchants Energy and Ningbo Shipping hitting the daily limit [2][9]. - The rental prices for large oil tankers have skyrocketed, with the daily rental for a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) increasing from $19,998 to $47,609, a rise of 138% [9][10]. - The rental rates for Long Range 2 (LR2) tankers also saw a substantial increase, from $21,097 to $51,879, indicating a broader trend of rising shipping costs due to heightened security risks in the region [10]. Group 3: Oil Price Projections - Analysts predict that oil prices will experience significant upward pressure, with Brent crude futures potentially breaking the $80 per barrel mark and fluctuating between $70 and $100 per barrel [10]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to contribute to volatility in oil prices and shipping rates, driven by the uncertainty surrounding Iran's potential actions regarding the Strait of Hormuz [10].

三菱日联：菲律宾比索、韩元和泰铢更容易受油价飙升的影响 金十数据6月23日讯，三菱日联银行全球市场研究部门的四名成员在一份报告中说，菲律宾比索、韩元 和泰铢在亚洲更容易受到油价进一步飙升的影响。他们援引了世行对油价上涨可能如何影响亚洲外汇市 场的分析。该行的情景分析显示，油价上涨10美元/桶将使亚洲经常账户头寸减少0.2%至0.9%的GDP； 油价每上涨10美元/桶，亚洲的CPI可能会上升0.1至0.8个百分点。 ...

本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 苯乙烯主要观点：原油端，受伊以冲突影响延续上涨趋势；周内美国介入与否尚存不确定性，届时不排除局势进一步升级，油价短期波动或剧烈。纯苯端，因原油高位支撑， 纯苯估值比价偏低向上存弹性。基本面看国内纯苯供需双增，下游苯乙烯复产支撑需求但非苯乙烯下游利润堪忧，进口方面船期后续到港有增多，港口库存仍表现出去化不畅的供 需矛盾，价格上方空间或因此受限。苯乙烯在复产下供增需减，上游检修装置回归叠加利润起色刺激意愿，供应压力增大；下游3S在此轮事件中价格跟涨乏力利润承压，叠加国补 和关税影响终端需求并不过分乐观。苯乙烯供需边际或逐步转弱，关注后续库存止降累库节点。短期地缘扰动仍是主要定价因素，原油波动剧烈建议谨慎参与。中期结合苯乙烯基 本面看高价仍存压力，可关注原油共振的高空机会。 期货策略建议：单边暂观望，中期关注原油共振的高空机会 期权策略建议：暂观望 01 纯苯 壹 2025年苯乙烯、纯苯链投产计划 苯乙烯周报 E B ：原油扰动剧烈 ， 关注苯乙烯边际转弱和累库时点 广发期货研究所 化工组 金果实 从业资格：F3083706 投 ...

Group 1 - The oil and gas ETF (159697.SZ) increased by 1.85%, with the associated index, Guozheng Oil and Gas (399439.SZ), rising by 1.82% [1] - Major constituent stocks saw significant gains, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) up 1.61%, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) up 0.87%, and China Merchants Energy (招商南油) up 10.16% [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense following the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, with potential retaliatory actions from Iran, including threats to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route [1] Group 2 - Since the onset of the conflict, the oil and gas ETF has experienced a net inflow of 108 million, with a net inflow rate of 127% [2] - The report indicates that historical data suggests such conflicts typically lead to short-term reactions in oil prices, while long-term prices are determined by supply and demand fundamentals [1]

2025 年 6 月 23 日 原油：强势或未结束，多单持有 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI7 月原油期货收跌 0.21 美元/桶，跌幅 2.80%，报 74.93 美元/桶；布伦特 8 月原油期货收 跌 1.84 美元/桶，跌幅 2.33%，报 77.01 美元/桶；SC2508 原油期货收跌 4.40 元/桶，跌幅 0.77%， 报 568.40 元/桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强， -2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 【趋势强度】 原油趋势强度：1 期货研究 国泰君安期货有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）具有中国证监会核准的期货投资咨询业务资格（证监许 可[2011]1449号）。 1. 摩根大通：在包括霍尔木兹海峡封锁在内的更大范围地区冲突极端情况下，油价可能飙升至每 桶 120 至 130 美元。 2. 市场消息：伊朗议会批准关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最高 ...

在空袭伊朗后，美国加强戒备！ 据最新消息，当地时间6月22日，美国国务院发布全球安全警报，警告因以色列与伊朗冲突升级，可能在全球 范围内引发针对美国公民或美国利益的抗议活动。与此同时，为防范伊朗局势潜在风险，美国国内也加强了安 全部署。 因美国袭击伊朗引发中东局势升级，周一早盘，全球股市多数下跌。 截至发稿，韩国KOSPI指数跌超 1%，日经225指数跌0.76%，富时马来西亚KLCI指数跌0.86%。美股股指期货也全线下跌，纳指期货跌 0.57%，道指期货、标普500指数期货跌超0.4%。另外，欧洲斯托克50指数期货下跌0.6%，德国DAX指 数期货下跌0.5%，英国富时指数期货下跌0.4%。 美国发布全球安全警报 据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月22日，美国国务院发布全球安全警报，警告因以色列与伊朗冲突升级，可能在 全球范围内引发针对美国公民或美国利益的抗议活动。 全球安全警报指出，中东地区目前空中交通已受干扰，部分空域临时关闭，同时"存在针对美国公民和利益的 潜在示威风险"，美方建议全球范围内的美国公民"增强安全意识"。 此前，美国国土安全部也发出警告称，美军空袭伊朗目标后，美国本土正处于"威胁等级升高"的 ...

中信证券：短期内油价将持续高位波动 智通财经6月23日电，中信证券研报指出，随着美国加入攻击伊朗核设施，中东形势有进一步扩大趋 势，我们预计油价将大幅上行，短期内油价将持续高位波动，关注矛盾是否进一步激化及原油基础设施 港口等运行条件。综合来看，短期布伦特原油期货价格有望突破80美元/桶并进一步上探，我们预计在 70-100美元/桶区间震荡。若需求不及预期且OPEC+持续增产，中枢将逐步下移。 ...

| < W | NYMEX WTI原油 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CL.NYM | | | | | | | | 75.60 | | 昨结 | 73.84 | 总手 | | 6.05万 | | | +1.76 | +2.38% 开盘 | | 78.00 | 现手 | | 10 | | | 最高价 | 78.40 | 报 色 | 0 | 外 | | 2.42万 | | | 最低价 | 75.22 | 量 ਦੇ | -30.35万 | 内 물 | | 3.63万 | | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 周Ｋ | 目K | 車を | (0) | | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:76.42 | | | | | 78.40 | | | | 6.18% | | 75.61 | 2 | | | | | | | 75.58 | | 6 | | | | | | | 19:07 | 75.57 | 71 | | | | | | | 19:07 | 75.55 | 1 | | 73.84 | | | | | 0.00% ...