交流内容 GALAXY FUTURES 1 宏观面：周期底部接近成熟 基本面：铜市提前进入供应短缺 即将来临的消费旺季将凸显供应问题 消费旺季来临，铜市拉开上涨大幕 银河期货 车红云 投资咨询资格证号：Z0012165 铜的周期就是全球经济周期 正常经济周期： 经济进入强劲增长是铜价大涨的前提 非常规周期： 重大危机下的QE政策 当前： (美联储主席鲍威尔) 周期时间： 8年 8年 7年 7年 8年 铜价进入上行周期的条件 GALAXY FUTURES 2 2022年Q2的宏观背景是未来基准 | 标名称 ↓ | 美国GDP环比折年率 | 欧元区GDP季调环比 | | 中国GDP当季同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 河ID | G0000002 | G0900711 | M0039354 | | | 18 | के | ਝੁੱ | ਝੁੱ | | | 立 | % | % | % | | | 居来源 | 美国经济分析局 | 欧盟统计局 | 国家统计局 | | | 23-12 | 3.20 | | 0.00 | 5.20 | | 23-09 | 4.90 | | -0.1 ...

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is around $3340 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.27% from the previous trading day, supported by a weakening US dollar index which hit a four-year low at 97.449 [1][2] - The market is focused on two main variables: the impact of the latest developments in Iran nuclear negotiations on geopolitical risk premiums, and the upcoming US May PCE inflation data on June 27, which may reshape Federal Reserve policy expectations [1][3] Group 2 - The decline of the US dollar index is driven by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's emphasis on waiting for the impact of tariffs on inflation before making interest rate decisions, which has led to a market perception of a potential rate cut this year [3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield has slightly decreased to 4.287%, reflecting growing concerns about economic slowdown, further diminishing the dollar's interest rate advantage [3] - The negative correlation between the dollar index and gold prices is particularly evident in the current environment, with gold's relative value increasing for investors holding currencies like the euro and pound [3] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding the Iran nuclear negotiations remains a significant variable in gold pricing, with skepticism about the sustainability of the ceasefire agreement announced by Trump [5][6] - The complexity of geopolitical risks is highlighted by the potential for both reduced safe-haven demand for gold due to the ceasefire and the retention of Iran's technical capabilities, which could lead to retaliatory actions [6] Group 4 - The upcoming US May PCE data is expected to show a decrease in core PCE year-on-year from 2.8% in April to 2.6%, potentially the lowest level since March 2021 [7] - If the PCE data meets or falls below expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, further weakening the dollar and boosting gold prices [7] Group 5 - From a technical perspective, gold has shown a downward trend for seven consecutive weeks, with a critical resistance level at $3355; failure to break this level may lead to further declines towards the $3300 support level [8] - Conversely, if geopolitical risks resurface or the PCE data is weak, gold prices could rebound above $3400 [8] Group 6 - Overall, while the weakening dollar provides short-term support for gold, geopolitical uncertainties and potential impacts from the PCE data limit the upside potential for gold prices [10]

6月26日，据追风交易台消息，德意志银行在最新研报中称，金融市场对美联储明年的政策预期出现显著变化，特别是对新 任美联储主席上任后的降息预期异常激进。 德意志银行最新一份研报显示，市场对美联储明年的预期出现显著变化，预计新任主席或推动持续宽松。 注：残差，指实际观察值与估计值（拟合值）之间的差。"残差"蕴含了有关模型基本假设的重要信息。如果回归模型正确的 话， 可以将残差看作误差的观测值。 不过，报告也指出，对这种"新主席溢价"持谨慎态度。因为制定货币政策需要FOMC的多数票委支持，新任美联储主席需要 说服同僚支持不同的政策轨迹。这一制度约束意味着围绕新主席的政策定价不连续性应该是轻微的。 美联储现任主席任期将于明年5月到期，不过，据华尔街见闻文章指出，特朗普考虑最早今夏宣布下任美联储主席人选，远 早于传统的3-4个月过渡期。知情人士透露，特朗普希望通过提前宣布继任者，让"影子主席"在鲍威尔任期结束前就开始影 响市场预期和货币政策走向。 报告还称，自上周美联储理事沃勒等官员发表鸽派讲话以来，市场已为年底前额外定价约10个基点的降息。 统计模型揭示明年异常定价："新主席溢价"现象浮现 德意志银行称，真正引人注目 ...

Group 1 - As of June 25, the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, held 953.39 tons, a decrease of 2.29 tons from the previous trading day [2] - On June 25, spot gold slightly rebounded, fluctuating around $3,330, with a daily low of $3,312.03 and closing at $3,332.02, an increase of $9.09 or 0.27% [2] - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to improved risk sentiment, which has suppressed gold prices; however, renewed tensions could drive prices higher [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that many paths are possible regarding interest rate cuts, suggesting that inflation may not be as strong as expected [3] - Economic data in the coming months will be crucial for the gold market; weak inflation or a deteriorating labor market could lead to earlier or larger rate cuts than anticipated [3] - Current expectations from federal funds futures traders indicate a cumulative rate cut of 60 basis points by 2025, with the first cut likely in September [3] Group 3 - Technically, gold prices are holding above the critical 50-day moving average support level around $3,325, with the 14-day RSI struggling near the midpoint [3] - Short-term support levels for gold are at $3,300 and the June 24 low of $3,295; a break below these levels could trigger further declines, with the next support at the May 29 low of $3,245 [3] - For bullish sentiment, reclaiming the 21-day moving average at $3,350 is crucial for a sustained recovery, with the next resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci level around $3,380 [4]

Group 1 - The main focus of the market has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with officials maintaining a cautious stance while expectations for rate cuts in the second half of the year have increased [2][3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 75.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 24.8%. In September, the probability of maintaining rates is 10.6%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 68.1% [2] - Market bets indicate that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates once in September, October, and December this year [2][3] Group 2 - The geopolitical uncertainty, particularly regarding the U.S.-Iran conflict and the impact of tariffs, continues to pose inflation risks, providing support for precious metals [3] - The price of silver in Shanghai has shown an increase, with the main contract reported at 8795 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a rise of 1.69% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Westpac has brought forward its expectations for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia to July [1] Group 1 - Westpac's revised forecast indicates a shift in monetary policy outlook for Australia [1] - The anticipation of a rate cut reflects changing economic conditions and potential impacts on consumer spending [1]

摘要周四(6月26日)本交易日现货黄金日内维持震荡走势，今日开盘报3332.09美元/盎司，最高触及 3339.76美元/盎司，最低触及3328.99美元/盎司，截止发稿金价报3333.11美元/盎司，涨幅0.04%。 【黄金走势分析】 周三黄金整体还是震荡，开盘走高至3337后，出现回落，最低在3312，美盘再次走高至3340，全盘跟预 期一致，即没有单边走势，也没有较大空间的涨跌，低多策略能做出有效利润。目前黄金收盘在3334附 近，按照目前的表现来看，首先维持低位震荡，低多的看法不变，另外需要注意今天周四，在这个变盘 的时间节点是否能出现破位性行情。 【要闻速递】 美元兑欧元跌至2021年以来最低，但兑日元上涨，整体走势受抑。渣打银行外汇研究主管Steve Englander指出，市场对美联储降息预期的增强削弱了美元吸引力。联邦基金期货显示，交易员预计年 底前降息62个基点，较上周显著增加。同时，美国10年期公债收益率小幅回落至4.287%，反映市场对 降息时机的重新评估。 周四亚市，美元指数延续跌势，截止07:40，最低触及97.53，刷新2022年3月以来低点。美元走弱和美 债收益率回落通常利好黄金 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】美国能源信息署数据显示，截止6月20日当 周，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量8.17632亿桶，比前 一周下降560万桶；美国商业原油库存量4.15106亿桶，比前一 周下降584万桶；美国汽油库存总量2.27938亿桶，比前一周下 降208万桶；美国原油日均产量1343.5万桶，比前周日均产量增 加4000桶，比去年同期日均产量增加23.5万桶；伊朗议会通过 暂停与联合国核查机构合作的法案；特朗普：下周美方将与伊 朗会谈；若伊朗重启核计划，美国将再度实施打击。评：地缘 溢价已经完全回落。供需看，5月OPEC+增产未达预期，OPEC+维 持增产的立场不变，需求偏弱。把握压力位沽空机会。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗 就一项潜在的核协议展开会谈，但他多次强调自己并不认为这 类协议"有多必要"。他补充说，美方此次将提出与此前在中 东局势升级前与伊朗谈判时相同的要求。特朗普表示，自己 "非常确信"以色列与伊朗之间的军事冲突已经结束。评：以 伊冲突结束，避险情绪降温，利空黄金。降息预期增加，美元 走弱，利多黄金。黄金中期震荡格局并未改变，但进一步上 ...

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Group 1 - Financial markets experienced increased volatility, with short-term government bonds becoming the preferred choice for risk-averse investors as traders continued to ramp up expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1][4] - The yield curve is steepening, indicating a consensus that short-term bond yields will decline faster than long-term yields, reflecting expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy and concerns over future government bond supply [4] - Despite a disappointing auction of $70 billion in five-year government bonds, the prevailing expectation of interest rate cuts continues to dominate market direction [4] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials, including Waller and Bowman, have signaled a dovish stance, suggesting that if inflation continues to improve, rate cuts could begin as early as July, leading to significant adjustments in the interest rate swap market [4] - However, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintained a cautious tone, emphasizing the need for more observation regarding the impact of trade policies on consumer prices, reiterating that the Fed will not act hastily [5]