Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of IH2509 is volatile, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is strongly volatile, and the overall view is rising, supported by positive policy expectations [1] - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is strongly volatile, the medium - term view is rising, and the overall view is rising. The stock index is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, short - term: volatile; medium - term: rising; intraday: strongly volatile; view reference: rising; core logic: positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index was in a narrow - range volatile consolidation. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1871 billion yuan, an increase of 41.7 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - The Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of existing policies, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on boosting consumption and supporting technological innovation. It also aimed to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market [5] - The Politburo meeting had few incremental benefits. Since late June, some stocks have risen significantly, and some profit - taking funds may seek to take profits, weakening the short - term upward driving force of the stock index [5] - New policy incremental benefits are expected to wait for the policy guidance of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October. Currently, the stock market trading volume is at a relatively high level, and market risk appetite has recovered, so the stock index is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [5]

国盛证券首席经济学家，熊园 博士 国盛证券宏观分析师，朱慧、杨涛、穆仁文 事件：2025年7月30日，政治局会议召开，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。 核心观点：本次会议最重要的信号是确定10月召开二十届四中全会，主题是审议"十五五"规划编制建议。经济工作方面，下半年政策将着力各种"稳"、并 重提要努力完成完全年目标，指向短期将更注重抓落实，后续应会有新政策、但并非强刺激、更可能是"托而不举"，新提"适时加力、增强灵活性预见 性"，则预示一旦形势恶化也会很快出台增量政策。具体看，本次会议还是有不少增量信息，尤其是：再次突出"反内卷"，主抓手反价格战、去产能、规 范政府招商；首提"增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势头"，指向稳股市仍是硬要求、调整就是机会；未直接提房地产，改 为"高质量开展城市更新"；未提"以旧换新"，强调"培育服务消费新的增长点"；删掉"适时降准降息"，延续强调"促进社会综合融资成本下行"和"用好各项 结构性货币政策工具"，指向下调LPR仍可能；财政政策突出"落实落细"，指向短期难以扩赤字、调预算等。我们也继续提示：事情正在起变化，对A股可 以乐观点，债券短期有所调整、可 ...

Group 1 - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to consolidate its recovery momentum [1] - The meeting highlighted the need to prevent and resolve risks in key areas, including local government debt and hidden debts [1] - It called for expanding high-level opening-up and stabilizing foreign trade and investment, with measures to support foreign trade enterprises [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance announced that it will issue a management approach for childcare subsidy funds in collaboration with the National Health Commission [2] - The childcare subsidy system aims to ensure safety, efficiency, and social supervision in fund distribution [2] - The central government has allocated a preliminary budget of approximately 90 billion yuan for childcare subsidies this year [10] Group 3 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a notice to accelerate support for the dairy industry and enhance its high-quality development [4] - Policies include financial service guarantees, cost reduction, and promoting the development of dairy products [4] Group 4 - The National Internet Information Office released a report advocating for accelerated innovation in network information technology and industry ecosystem development [5] - The report emphasizes self-reliance, public benefit, and international cooperation in information technology [5] Group 5 - The Chinese coking industry association decided to raise prices for various types of coke starting from July 31, with increases of 50 to 75 yuan per ton [6] Group 6 - The launch of the national AI open-source platform "Huanxin Community" aims to lower the application threshold for AI technology and foster a competitive domestic AI ecosystem [7][8] Group 7 - The successful development of a neutrino power generation device by "Yutai Energy" marks a significant step towards commercial application, with a notable reduction in generation costs [11]

Economic Policy and Strategy - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1] - A more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented, including the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to improve fund utilization efficiency [2] - Monetary policy should be adjusted appropriately to promote a decline in the comprehensive financing costs for society while maintaining ample liquidity [2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The focus will be on promoting consumption to effectively release domestic demand potential, with an allocation of 138 billion yuan for the "old for new" consumption subsidy program [3] - Policies will be developed to support service consumption in areas such as elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism, alongside financial policies to stimulate personal consumption loans [3] Market and Competition - The importance of improving supply quality through deepening reforms and stimulating market vitality is highlighted, particularly in the context of transitioning to new growth drivers [3] - The establishment of a unified national market is essential to optimize market competition and regulate disorderly competition among enterprises [3] Capital Market and Economic Stability - The capital market's role as an economic barometer is increasing, and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusiveness is crucial for stabilizing economic recovery [4] - The combination of short-term goals and long-term tasks, driven by policy tools and deepening reforms, is necessary to ensure the completion of annual economic and social development goals [4]

Group 1 - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market while consolidating its recovery momentum [1] - The meeting highlighted the need to prevent and resolve risks in key areas, including local government debt and hidden debts [1] - It called for expanding high-level opening-up and stabilizing foreign trade and investment, particularly supporting foreign trade enterprises affected by recent shocks [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance announced plans to issue a management method for childcare subsidy funds in collaboration with the National Health Commission [2] - The implementation of the childcare subsidy system will focus on safety, efficiency, and strict qualification reviews [2] - The two departments will ensure comprehensive budget performance management for the subsidy funds [2] Group 3 - The Ministry of Commerce reaffirmed China's commitment to opening up its market, welcoming foreign investment, particularly from U.S. companies [3] - The meeting with the U.S.-China Business Council highlighted the growth potential of China's consumer market [3] - The dialogue between the two governments is seen as a positive signal that enhances market confidence [3] Group 4 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a notice to accelerate support for the dairy industry and improve its quality development [4] - Eight policy measures were proposed, including financial service enhancements and promoting dairy product processing [4] - Local governments are encouraged to develop affordable dairy products to meet consumer needs [4] Group 5 - The National Internet Information Office released a report emphasizing the need for innovation in network information technology and industry ecosystem development [5] - The report outlines five key strategies for advancing information technology, including self-reliance and global cooperation [5] Group 6 - The Chinese coking industry association decided to raise prices for various types of coke starting July 31 [6] - The price adjustments include an increase of 50 yuan/ton for wet quenching coke and 75 yuan/ton for top-loading coke [6] Group 7 - The launch of the national AI open-source platform "Huanxin Community" aims to foster a competitive domestic AI ecosystem [7] - The platform will provide shared model resources and computing power to lower the barriers for AI technology applications [7] Group 8 - The National Health Commission stated that local childcare subsidy standards exceeding the national baseline can continue after evaluation and filing [8] - Local policies must ensure a smooth transition to align with national standards while protecting public interests [8] Group 9 - The central government has allocated an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan for childcare subsidies this year [9] - The central government will cover about 90% of the funding required for the national baseline subsidy [9] Group 10 - "Yutai Energy" announced the successful operation of its neutrino pump power generation device, achieving an average output of 210 kilowatts [10] - The technology has transitioned from principle verification to commercial application, with significant reductions in generation costs [10] - The successful operation of this device brings the company closer to its goal of developing a megawatt-level neutrino power generation system [10]

人民财讯7月30日电，中信建投研报表示，7月政治局会议聚焦"十五五"规划谋划与下半年经济工作，释 放多重政策信号。会议明确"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期， 需衔接多重时间节点。当前经济回升向好但基础仍需巩固，政策取向保持宽松同时留足弹性，若三季度 数据超预期走弱，四季度或启动增量工具。宏观政策持续发力且注重"落细"，财政加快政府债券发行使 用，货币保持流动性充裕，下半年仍有降准降息可能，政府投资基金精准投向战略领域。同时，着力培 育服务消费新增长点，优化市场竞争秩序，增强资本市场吸引力，鼓励企业家以创新与优质产品抢占竞 争主动，推动经济高质量发展。 转自：证券时报 ...

中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议引发市场广泛关注，会议中"宏观政策要持续发力、适时加 力""增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势头"等重磅表述尤为引人 注目，多位卖方研究领域专业人士就此发表深入解读。 在 中信证券首席经济学家明明 看来，本次政治局会议对当前经济形势给予积极评价，我国经 济运行稳中有进，主要经济指标表现良好，新质生产力加快形成，高质量发展取得新成效。同 时，会议也指出当前面临的风险挑战依然较多，外部环境复杂严峻，国内仍存在结构性矛盾， 强调要增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维，把握好巩固回升态势与推进结构调整之间的平衡。 国泰海通证券首席宏观分析师梁中华 称，总的来看，本次会议有三个特征，一是对内外部形 势的判断相较4月政治局会议更加积极；二是强调政策连续性，下半年有望迎来"适时加力"的 窗口期；三是适逢"十五五"规划起草在即，政策兼顾短期稳增长和长期促改革。 广发证券首席经济学家郭磊 表示，"巩固资本市场回稳向好势头"一则是对资本市场功能性的 重视；二则是对"924"以来市场定价修复带给宏观经济、微观预期正反馈效应的肯定。 华源证券总经理助理、研究所所长刘晓宁 指出，7月底政治局 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continuity of policies while balancing short-term growth and long-term reforms, particularly in the context of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" and the current economic situation [3][5][7]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The Politburo meeting on July 30, 2025, assessed the economic situation more positively compared to the April meeting, noting a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, which exceeded annual targets [7][9]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and flexibility, with expectations for a potential "timely increase" in policy support in the latter half of the year [9][10]. Policy Deployment - Fiscal and monetary policies are shifting from "utilizing effectively" to "implementing in detail," focusing on improving the efficiency of fund usage and leveraging structural monetary policy tools [10][11]. - The concept of "anti-involution" has evolved, moving away from merely addressing low prices to a broader focus on quality and regulatory compliance within a unified national market [10][11]. - There is an increased emphasis on stabilizing the capital market, with a call to consolidate the positive momentum observed since April [11]. - Risk prevention and resolution in key areas are entering a new phase, particularly in real estate and local government debt management [11]. Future Considerations - The article suggests that while there is less urgency for new stimulus policies due to improved economic data and reduced external tensions, the government retains the option to implement additional measures if necessary [5][11]. - Close attention should be paid to the definitive industrial clues outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" as it develops [5][11].

智通财经7月30日晚间新闻精选 3、百亿湖北人形机器人母基金启动，首期50亿落地，前瞻布局机器人"大脑"和"小脑"及"肢体"等领 域。 1、中共中央政治局召开会议，决定召开二十届四中全会，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议指 出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力；增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势 头。 2、中央财政今年初步安排预算900亿元育儿补贴，各地将在8月下旬陆续开放育儿补贴申领。 4、广期所调整工业硅、多晶硅、碳酸锂期货部分合约交易限额，部分合约单日开仓量不得超过500手。 5、宁德时代上半年实现净利润305亿元 同比增长33.02%。上纬新材：多次触及股票交易异常波动和严 重异常波动情形 明起停牌核查。南新制药：近期正筹划购买某一国内药品技术等资产组事项 尚无法确 定是否构成重大资产重组。20CM五天四板幸福蓝海：公司是《南京照相馆》的投资方之一 投资比例较 低。2连板阳光乳业：公司控股股东近两日合计卖出114.52万股。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need for continuous and stable macroeconomic policies to support high-quality development in China, particularly in preparation for the 15th Five-Year Plan [1][4] - The report highlights the importance of effective domestic demand stimulation, with a focus on consumer spending and investment in public services, including a notable budget allocation of approximately 90 billion yuan for a new childcare subsidy program [2][3] - The integration of domestic and foreign trade is underscored, with a call for high-level openness and support for foreign trade and investment, particularly in light of recent US-China trade discussions [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicates a shift in focus towards urban renewal as a new policy goal, alongside measures to stabilize the real estate market and enhance the attractiveness of the domestic capital market [3][4] - The necessity for deepening reforms is reiterated, with an emphasis on fostering technological innovation and developing new competitive industries to enhance economic resilience [4][6] - The report outlines the performance of various provinces in terms of GDP growth, noting that several regions have exceeded their growth targets for the first half of 2025, indicating a positive economic trend [7]