Core Viewpoint - The recent notification from the financial regulatory authority aims to strengthen the regulation of universal life insurance (ULI) products, allowing for adjustable minimum guaranteed interest rates to better manage interest rate risk and promote sustainable market development [3][4][8]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The notification allows ULI products to adjust their minimum guaranteed interest rates under certain conditions, which helps insurance companies manage asset-liability matching and protect customer interests [4][8]. - ULI products are defined as flexible insurance products that combine protection and investment, with a minimum guaranteed interest rate that is subject to change based on market conditions [4][10]. - The notification introduces a one-year transition period for existing ULI products that do not meet the new requirements, with a deadline for compliance set for April 30, 2026 [10]. Group 2: Market Impact - The average settlement interest rate for ULI products is projected to decline to 2.79% by March 2025, down 60 basis points from 2023 and 5 basis points from 2024 [5]. - The notification aims to guide ULI products back to long-term operations and insurance protection, preventing short-term practices that could lead to liquidity risks [11][15]. - The notification includes a negative list for sales management, prohibiting misleading comparisons between ULI products and other financial products, and ensuring transparency in risk disclosures [17]. Group 3: Consumer Protection - Insurance companies are required to inform customers about the reasons for any adjustments to the minimum guaranteed interest rates and to provide adequate customer service [9]. - The notification emphasizes the importance of consumer rights protection, ensuring that clients are aware of the risks associated with ULI products [9][10]. - The notification mandates that ULI products must have a minimum term of five years, effectively eliminating shorter-term ULI products from the market [12][15]. Group 4: Financial Management - The notification requires insurance companies to establish clear rules for surplus distribution and to set aside special reserves for different scenarios to ensure fair profit distribution [16]. - It imposes stricter limits on the proportion of ULI funds that can be invested in high-risk assets, such as single equity investment funds and non-standard financial products [17]. - The notification aims to enhance cash flow matching management and closely monitor risk exposures to prevent asset-liability mismatches and liquidity risks [17].

内容提要 2025年3月，银行间外汇市场交投持续活跃，外币对市场日均成交量创历史新高；美元指数大幅收贬，人民币汇率震荡回升；汇率贬值预期有所减弱；期权 波动率整体先降后升，市场观望情绪浓厚；中美利差持续缩窄，掉期曲线整体延续上行；外币利率市场美元流动性维持宽松。 一、银行间外汇市场交投持续活跃，外币对市场日均成交量创历史新高 3月银行间外汇市场日均交易量2118.26亿美元，同比上升14.98%，环比上升8.28%。其中人民币外汇市场日均交易量为1540.94亿美元，同比上升8.81%，增 量主要来自即期和掉期。外币对市场日均交易量为140.67亿美元，创下历史新高。外币利率市场日均交易量为436.66亿美元，连续三个月环比增长达7%以 上。 二、美元指数大幅收贬，人民币汇率震荡回升 特朗普拟宣布对等关税，美国经济数据偏弱，预期降息次数增加，美元指数上旬快速走贬，此后窄幅波动，下旬有所回升，全月总体大幅收跌。上半月，美 国对加墨关税落地并表示将在4月2日宣布对等关税，而欧洲如期降息并计划增加财政支出，欧洲股市上涨引发资金回流；此外，美国2月制造业、就业等数 据表现不佳，滞胀风险进一步上升，年内预期降息增至3次 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Credit bond yields have followed the upward trend, and credit spreads have slightly widened again. This week, interest rates have generally fluctuated upward, and credit bond yields have generally followed suit. Except for the AA- credit bonds with 1Y and 5Y tenors, the spreads of other varieties have rebounded [2][5]. - The spreads of urban investment bonds have increased, with higher-grade varieties showing a relatively larger increase. This week, the spreads of urban investment bonds have generally increased, with the spreads of external subject-rated AAA platforms increasing by 3BP, and those of AA+ and AA platforms increasing by 1BP [2][9]. - The spreads of industrial bonds have diverged, and the spreads of private real estate bonds have continued to rise. This week, the spreads of central and state-owned enterprise real estate bonds have slightly increased by 2 - 3BP, the spreads of mixed-ownership real estate bonds have significantly decreased by 124BP, and the spreads of private real estate bonds have increased by 44BP [2][18]. - The spreads of secondary perpetual bonds have adjusted slightly upward, with a slightly higher increase in the 3 - 5Y tenors. This week, secondary perpetual bonds have adjusted, and their spreads have slightly increased, with a relatively higher increase in the 3 - 5Y tenors [2][27]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds have basically remained flat, while the excess spreads of urban investment perpetual bonds have increased. This week, the excess spreads of industrial AAA3Y perpetual bonds have slightly increased by 0.01BP to 9.21BP, and those of urban investment AAA3Y and AAA5Y perpetual bonds have increased [2][29]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Credit Bond Yields Follow the Upward Trend, and Credit Spreads Slightly Widen Again - Interest rates have generally fluctuated upward. The yields of 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds have increased by 2BP, 3BP, 1BP, and 2BP respectively, while the yield of 1Y bonds has remained basically the same as last week [5]. - Credit bond yields have generally followed the upward trend. The yield of 1Y AA- credit bonds has decreased by 1BP, while the yields of other varieties have increased by 2BP; the yields of 3Y credit bonds of all grades have increased by 5 - 6BP; the yields of 5Y AAA and AA- credit bonds have increased by 1 - 3BP, and those of AA+ and AA varieties have increased by 5 - 6BP; the yields of 7Y credit bonds of all grades have increased by 3 - 4BP; the yields of 10Y bonds of all grades have increased by 5 - 6BP [5]. - Credit spreads have shown a mixed trend. Except for the slightly decreased spreads of 1Y and 5Y AA- credit bonds, the spreads of other varieties have rebounded. The spreads of 1Y AA- credit bonds have decreased by 1BP, while those of other varieties have increased by 2BP; the spreads of 3Y credit bonds of all grades have increased by 3 - 4BP; the spreads of 5Y AA- varieties have decreased by 2BP, while those of other varieties have increased by 1 - 3BP; the spreads of 7Y bonds of all grades have increased by 2 - 3BP; the spreads of 10Y bonds of all grades have increased by 3 - 4BP [5]. - Rating spreads and term spreads have shown a divergent trend. Most rating spreads have slightly decreased, and term spreads have shown different trends among different grades and tenors [5]. II. The Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds Increase, with Higher-Grade Varieties Showing a Relatively Larger Increase - Overall, the spreads of urban investment bonds have increased. The spreads of external subject-rated AAA platforms have increased by 3BP, and those of AA+ and AA platforms have increased by 1BP [9]. - Provincial AAA platform spreads: Most have increased by 1 - 3BP, with Tianjin, Xinjiang, and Shanxi increasing by 4 - 5BP [9]. - AA+ platform spreads: Most have increased by 0 - 1BP, with Jilin and Guizhou increasing by 8BP, and Yunnan, Heilongjiang, and Shaanxi decreasing by 5BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively [9]. - AA platform spreads: Most have increased by 0 - 2BP, with Hunan and Liaoning increasing by 3BP, and Shaanxi and Shandong decreasing by 7BP and 3BP respectively [9]. - By administrative level: The spreads of provincial, municipal, and district-level platforms have increased by 3BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively. Most provincial platform spreads have increased by 1 - 3BP, with Shanxi increasing by 8BP, and Shaanxi and Tianjin increasing by 5BP; most municipal platform spreads in various regions have increased by 1 - 2BP, with Jilin increasing by 7BP, and the spreads in Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Yunnan, and Guizhou decreasing by 1 - 5BP; most district-level platform spreads in various regions have remained flat or increased by 1 - 2BP, with Liaoning increasing by 3BP, Guizhou decreasing by 9BP, and Shaanxi decreasing by 4BP [15]. III. The Spreads of Industrial Bonds Diverge, and the Spreads of Private Real Estate Bonds Continue to Rise - The spreads of industrial bonds have shown a divergent trend. The spreads of central and state-owned enterprise real estate bonds have slightly increased by 2 - 3BP, the spreads of mixed-ownership real estate bonds have significantly decreased by 124BP (Vanke's spreads have decreased by 278BP), and the spreads of private real estate bonds have increased by 44BP (Longfor's spreads have decreased by 27BP, Midea Real Estate and Huafa Co., Ltd.'s spreads have remained flat, and CIFI's spreads have increased by 563BP) [18]. - The spreads of coal and steel bonds of all grades have increased by 1 - 2BP; the spreads of AAA-grade chemical bonds have decreased by 5BP, and those of AA+ have decreased by 13BP. The spreads of Shaanxi Coal have increased by 3BP, those of Jinkong Coal Industry have increased by 2BP, and those of HBIS have increased by 2BP [18]. IV. The Spreads of Secondary Perpetual Bonds Slightly Increase, with a Slightly Higher Increase in the 3 - 5Y Tenors - This week, secondary perpetual bonds have adjusted, and their spreads have slightly increased, with a relatively higher increase in the 3 - 5Y tenors. Specifically, the yields of 1Y medium- and high-grade commercial bank secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds have increased by 0 - 1BP, the yield of AA-grade secondary capital bonds has increased by 2BP, and the spreads of 1Y secondary perpetual bonds have generally increased by 0 - 2BP. The yields of 3Y secondary capital bonds have increased by 5 - 6BP, and the spreads have increased by 3 - 4BP; the yields of 3Y AAA- and AA+-grade perpetual bonds have increased by 4BP, and that of AA has increased by 2BP, with the spreads of 3Y perpetual bonds increasing by 0 - 2BP. The yields of 5Y secondary capital bonds have increased by 4 - 5BP, and the spreads have increased by 1 - 2BP; the yields of 5Y perpetual bonds have increased by 2 - 4BP, and the spreads have increased by 0 - 2BP [27]. V. The Excess Spreads of Industrial Perpetual Bonds Basically Remain Flat, while the Excess Spreads of Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Increase - This week, the excess spreads of industrial AAA3Y perpetual bonds have slightly increased by 0.01BP to 9.21BP, at the 9.83% quantile since 2015; the excess spreads of industrial AAA5Y perpetual bonds have remained the same as last week at 8.72BP, at the 6.53% quantile since 2015; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA3Y perpetual bonds have increased by 0.75BP to 8.99BP, at the 9.68% quantile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA5Y perpetual bonds have increased by 1.19BP to 10.92BP, at the 10.12% quantile [29]. VI. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank secondary perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium- and short-term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015; the credit spreads related to urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015 [36]. - The credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds are calculated as the individual bond's ChinaBond valuation (exercise) minus the yield to maturity of the same-term China Development Bank bond (calculated by linear interpolation method), and finally the credit spreads of the industry or regional urban investment are obtained by the arithmetic mean method [36]. - The excess spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds are calculated as the credit spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds minus the credit spreads of bank ordinary bonds of the same grade and term; the excess spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds are calculated as the credit spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds minus the credit spreads of medium-term notes of the same grade and term [37]. - Sample selection criteria: Industrial and urban investment bonds both select medium-term notes and public corporate bond samples, and exclude guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds; if the remaining term of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it will be excluded from the statistical sample; industrial and urban investment bonds are both externally subject-rated, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit bond ratings [38].

美债市场近期遭遇抛售，引发市场对美国政府债务的担忧。而在这一风波中， 对冲基金的"相对价值"交易策略(relative-value trades)被推上风口浪尖。 所谓的"相对价值"交易，通常旨在利用美国国债及其相关衍生品合约之间微小的价格差异，加以短期融资市场借入巨额资金，将微薄的利润转化为可观的回 报。 这些基金利用高杠杆，试图从美债及其衍生品之间的微小价格差异中获利， 如"基差交易"或"互换利差交易"，其持仓规模高达1万亿美元，杠杆率高达100 倍。 美债市场的流动性与对冲基金杠杆交易之间存在微妙平衡。根据美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 的最新数据，对冲基金参与政府债务固定收益相对价值交易的规模 约为9040亿美元，这一数字在过去十年中几乎翻了一番。此外，对冲基金在3月中旬净卖空了1.14万亿美元的美债期货，关于基差交易本身的规模估计约为 8000亿美元，其对市场的影响依然巨大。 然而，高杠杆的使用意味着即使是小幅度的价格波动，也可能引发大规模的平仓，加剧市场波动。对于这个为美国政府融资、历史上充当全球金融安全避风港 并影响几乎所有其他证券定价的市场来说，是一个危险的发展。 4月8日一场疲软的美国国债拍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced a rapid shift in investment sentiment since 2025, moving from cautious to pessimistic and then back to optimistic, influenced by various factors including funding conditions and global trade policies [3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In January and February, the main issue for the bond market was tight funding, while March saw a relaxation in funding but still required market adjustments [3]. - The implementation of the U.S. de-globalization tariff policy in April has amplified market volatility, leading to a noticeable acceleration in market trends [3]. Group 2: Conference Details - A forum titled "Investment Strategies in a High-Volatility Bond Market" is scheduled for April 24, 2025, from 13:30 to 17:00 at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Shenzhen [5]. - The agenda includes discussions on various topics such as funding central repositioning, new interpretations of term spreads from a conditional probability perspective, and the outlook for structured monetary policy tools [5].

预定利率与国债利率走势趋同，2 0 2 4年提出的预定利率动态调节机制要求定期调整评估利率，对寿险公司资产 负债匹配有重要作用。利率下行周期中，预定利率下调通过提高折现因子推高保费价格，触发"炒停"透支需 求，2 0 2 5年保险公司"开门红"整体情况不佳。长期来看，"炒停"预期下保费增速有望回归往年正常水平，为资 产端的投资提供充足资金。为保持资产负债匹配、获得利差益，寿险公司有动力进行各种投资以获得稳定的投 资收益。 预定利率调整概况 | 文件名 | 文件标号 | 文件时间 | 内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 关于调整保险公司保费预定利率的紧急 | 银发【1997】465 号 | 1997-11-07 | 预定利率上下限调整为年复利 4%至 6.5% | | 通知 | | | | | 中国保险监督管理委员会关于调整寿险 | 保监发【1999】93号 | 1999-06-10 | 将预定利率调整至 2.5% | | 保单预定利率的紧急通知 | | | | | 中国保监会关于普通型人身保险费率政 | 保监发【2013】62 号 | 2013-08-01 | 普通保险预定利率上 ...

▍ 预定利率下调降低了保险公司负债成本，但可能会影响展业规模。 预定利率与国债利率走势趋同，2 0 2 4年提出的预定利率动态调节机制要求定期调整评估利率，对寿险公司资产负债匹配有重 要作用。利率下行周期中，预定利率下调通过提高折现因子推高保费价格，触发"炒停"透支需求，2 0 2 5年保险公司"开门 红"整体情况不佳。长期来看，"炒停"预期下保费增速有望回归往年正常水平，为资产端的投资提供充足资金。为保持资产负 债匹配、获得利差益，寿险公司有动力进行各种投资以获得稳定的投资收益。 文 ｜ 明明 章立聪 杨宏宇 高玉森 预定利率调整概况 | 文件名 | 文件标号 | 文件时间 | 内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 关于调整保险公司保费预定利率的紧急 | 银发【1997】465 号 | 1997-11-07 | 预定利率上下限调整为年复利 4%至 6.5% | | 通知 | | | | | 中国保险监督管理委员会关于调整寿险 | 保监发【1999】93 号 | 1999-06-10 | 将预定利率调整至 2.5% | | 保单预定利率的紧急通知 | | | | | 中国保监会关于 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：殷雯卿（19945767933） 核心观点 近期关于美债今年是否会是到期最高峰、 6 月前后是否会出现天量到期潮的问题被市场高度关注。对 这一问题我们详细解释了国债到期额的合理统计方法，并对其进行统计。可以看到： 2025 年美国国 债并未如市场所传的那样出现天量到期墙问题，但目前美国国债、特别是短期国债的到期滚续压力确 实很大，远高于 2023 年以前的水平，高额的国债到期规模可能会加大国债市场的供需压力，美债收 益率难下。 报告摘要 1 、 2025 年是天量到期潮吗？与 2024 年大致持平 以上文所述统计方法，滚动以每年 1 月 1 日为数据观察日，统计美国国债每年到期额。 则 2025 年 美国国债到期规模 10.8 万亿美元，与 2024 年到期额 10.6 万亿美元接近，但远高于 2023 年以前 水平。因此， 2025 年其实并没有出现国债到期额相较 2024 年的巨幅提升，但美国国债的债务到期 问题确实愈发严重。 2 、 2025 年 5-6 月将是年内债务到期高峰？ 为何会出现 2025 ...

研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 马闻倬 S0350124070011 mawz@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 超长债供给压力几何？ 固定收益点评 相关报告 《固定收益点评：4 月资金面怎么看？*靳毅》—— 2025-03-30 2025 年 04 月 20 日 固定收益点评 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 《固定收益点评：债市如何交易关税冲击？*靳毅》 ——2025-04-14 《固定收益点评：政府债供给放量，会扰动债市 吗？*靳毅》——2025-04-06 2025 年超长债供给测算：①超长期一般国债供给量小，预计集中在 1-4 月、11-12 月发行；②超长期特别国债预计在 5 月、8-9 月供给 压力较大；③地方专项债中超长债占比上升，预计 8-9 月发行放量； ④超长地方再融资债预计 6 月发行完毕，供给压力可控。 综合来看，预计 2025 年超长债 2 月、8-9 月供给压力较大，单月发 行规模或超 7000 亿元。其中 1-4 月超长债供给主要由地方再融资债 和专项债贡献，而 5-10 ...

Core Insights - The Standard & Poor's report indicates that the six-month credit default swap (CDS) spreads for the U.S. government have increased by five basis points, reaching 70 basis points, marking the highest level since May 2023 [1] Group 1 - The rise in CDS spreads suggests growing concerns about the creditworthiness of the U.S. government [1] - The current level of 70 basis points reflects a significant increase in perceived risk among investors [1]