廖市无双：节后市场能否走出主升浪？20250505 摘要 • 上证指数在 3,140-3,500 点区间震荡，中枢约 3,330-3,340 点，清明节 后下翻修复，上方套牢盘集中在 3,300 点以上，反弹阻力逐渐增大，形成 楔形形态，补缺口难度增加。关注外部利好能否加速突破，否则可能转折 向下。 • 节前三个交易日市场窄幅震荡，上证 50 微跌，成长指数反弹。上证 50 已 补缺口并超涨，蓝筹股指数未能表达趋势性变化，区间震荡偏空。恒生科 技指数压力位对应跳空缺口上沿，受中美贸易紧张局势影响，存在抛售压 力，预计 4 月 27 日前仍区间震荡。 • 未来市场走势以区间震荡为主，支撑位在跳空缺口下沿，压力位在跳空缺 口上沿（约 3,350-3,340 点）。中证 500、1,000 和国证 2000 震荡反映 市场交易心理，投资者认为"有缺必补"，且前期风险偏好低，集中在自 主可控、内需板块，风险偏好回升后，这些板块成为补涨主战场。 • 市场风险偏好提高，成长风格优于价值风格。上证 50 已补缺，中证 1,000、国证 2000 仍有较大缺口。前期受压制的 AI、机器人等题材开始 表现强劲，资金转向需要补涨 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices fell sharply to a two-week low on May 1, primarily due to signs of easing trade tensions, with a drop of 2% during North American trading hours [1] - The improvement in market risk appetite and a stronger US dollar, along with rising US Treasury yields, negatively impacted gold prices [1] Group 2 - The market is currently experiencing a consolidation around the 3200 level, with limited upward movement despite a few rebounds [5] - The upward trend in gold prices has been broken, indicating potential for further declines, with a focus on the 3200 support level [5] - Traders are advised to adopt a high sell and low buy strategy in the current market environment [5] Group 3 - Specific trading strategies have been communicated, including short positions at 3325 and 3323, with profit-taking at 3265 and 3215 respectively [3] - Key price levels to watch include 3248 for potential upward movement and 3200 as a critical support level [7]

由于市场风险偏好整体改善和美国制造业景气指数带来支撑，1日美元兑一揽子货币全面走高，美元指 数在隔夜市场上涨，当日上午涨幅显著扩大，随后窄幅盘整，尾盘时美元指数显著上涨。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.78%，在汇市尾市收于100.246。 美国供应管理学会当日发布的数据显示，美国4月份制造业景气指数为48.7，高于市场预期的47.9，但低 于3月份的49。 Jayati Bharadwaj说，此前已经指出美元可能在近期反弹，这可能为做空美元提供更好的入场条件。特朗 普政府可能已经意识到他们在关税政策上用力过猛，并正在试图刻画进行潜在谈判的图景。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1286美元，低于前一交易日的1.1348美元；1英镑兑换1.3278美元，低 于前一交易日的1.3339美元。 1美元兑换145.68日元，高于前一交易日的142.77日元；1美元兑换0.8316瑞士法郎，高于前一交易日的 0.8229瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3848加元，高于前一交易日的1.3785加元；1美元兑换9.7566瑞典克朗，高 于前一交易日的9.6559瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华财经） 这一数据公布后， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, gold prices corrected due to further slowdown in tariff expectations, decline in risk - aversion sentiment, and profit - taking by long positions. The prices of Shanghai gold futures, gold T + D, COMEX gold futures, and London gold spot all decreased [1]. - This week (the week of April 28), gold prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust. In the short - term, they lack the momentum to rise further. In the long - term, factors such as US tariff pressure, policy uncertainty, and the risk of "stagflation" and economic recession will support gold prices [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On April 25, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 787.20 yuan/gram, down 3.82 yuan/gram from April 18. The price of gold T + D was 784.93 yuan/gram, down 2.27 yuan/gram. Internationally, the closing price of COMEX gold futures was 3330.20 dollars/ounce, down 11.10 dollars/ounce from April 17, and the price of London gold spot was 3318.76 dollars/ounce, down 8.07 dollars/ounce [4]. - The trading data shows different trends in cumulative price changes, trading volumes, and positions for different gold products [7]. 1.2 Gold Basis - Last Friday, the international gold basis (spot - futures) turned positive to 5.10 dollars/ounce, up 22.55 dollars/ounce from the previous Thursday. The Shanghai gold basis was - 1.11 yuan/gram, up 1.43 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [8]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Spread - Last Friday, the gold domestic - foreign price spread was 16.58 yuan/gram, up from 12.20 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The spread increased because overseas tariff expectations eased, causing the decline of foreign gold prices to be greater than that of domestic ones. The gold - oil ratio slightly increased, the gold - silver ratio slightly decreased, and the gold - copper ratio continued to decline [11]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, last week, the gold ETF holdings decreased slightly. As of last Friday, the holdings of the largest SPRD gold ETF were 946.27 tons, down 6.02 tons from the previous Thursday. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T + D increased significantly, up 75.86% from the previous week. - In terms of futures positions, as of April 22, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased, while the short positions increased, leading to a continuous decrease in net long positions. The COMEX gold futures inventory continued to decrease, and the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 15678 kilograms [16]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - Under tariff threats, the Bank of Japan maintains a gradual interest - rate hike stance. It may lower the economic growth forecast from 1.1% to about 0.5% in the next quarterly report [19]. - The IMF downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3.3% in January. It also lowered the US economic growth forecast and estimated the probability of the US falling into recession in 2025 at 40% [20]. - The US April Markit composite PMI unexpectedly declined to the lowest in 16 months. The manufacturing PMI was higher than expected, but the service PMI and composite PMI were lower than expected [21]. - Trump plans to exempt some tariffs for automakers, but this does not include a 25% tariff on imported complete vehicles and a 25% tariff on imported auto parts starting on May 3 [22]. - In March, US durable goods orders increased by 9.2% month - on - month, but capital goods orders only increased by 0.1% due to tariff concerns [23]. - In March, US existing - home sales dropped by 5.9% month - on - month, the largest decline since November 2022 [24]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - On April 24, Fed Governor Waller warned that the trade war might lead to an increase in unemployment. If tariffs remain unchanged, there will be no significant impact on the US economy before July. If tariffs rise, he may support interest - rate cuts. - Cleveland Fed President Hamark believes that the Fed should be patient with monetary policy in the face of high uncertainty and may take action as early as June if there is clear evidence of the economic direction [33]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - Last week, the US dollar index rebounded slightly during fluctuations. As the US Treasury Secretary hinted at the easing of Sino - US trade tensions and Trump said he had no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell, market risk appetite recovered, driving the dollar index up 0.36% to 99.58 as of last Friday [34]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - Last week, the speeches of Fed officials boosted market expectations of interest - rate cuts, causing the 10 - year TIPS yield to decline by 9bp to 2.02% as of last Friday [36]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - It is difficult for the Israeli - Palestinian sides to reach a cease - fire agreement, and the Russia - Ukraine situation remains uncertain. The Israeli military continued to bomb Gaza, and Qatar's Prime Minister said that there was some progress in a new cease - fire agreement in Gaza but a complete cease - fire was hard to achieve. Russia claimed to have recaptured the Kursk region, while Ukraine refuted it [40].

Group 1 - International gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, currently at $3324.49 per ounce, with a decline of 0.58% from an opening price of $3341.30 per ounce [1] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy path, with expectations of a potential resumption of interest rate cuts in June, possibly implementing three cuts throughout the year [2] - Geopolitical tensions are impacting gold prices, with a temporary ceasefire announced by Russia, although Ukraine has not responded, providing potential support for gold [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is supported above $3268.00 and faces resistance below $3353.00, suggesting a possible upward trend if it stabilizes above $3293.00 [3] - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified at $3378.00-$3379.00, with significant support at $3323.00-$3324.00 and important support at $3293.00-$3294.00 [3]

A股近期有所反弹 4月28日，A股三大指数小幅下跌，沪指全天维持在3300点附近。4月以来，受特朗普政府所谓的"对等 关税"冲击，全球资本市场出现大幅波动，A股也被牵连。 不过，在中国多部门密集部署、推出多种举 措之后，A股有所反弹。 如何看待A股近期的走势？市场风险偏好是否正在边际性改善？东吴期货首席投资官吴照银为我们带来 他的解读。 0:00 南方财经全媒体记者杨雨莱 广州报道 A股"成绩单"表现亮眼 4月底，2025年一季报披露临近尾声，A股市场上市公司交出了一份较为亮眼的成绩单。截至4月27日， 超过2700家上市公司发布了2025年一季报，已发布一季报的公司中，约四成实现了营收和归母净利润的 双增长，约六成企业实现净利润同比增长，百余家公司增幅超100%。其中，基础化工、电力设备、有 色金属等板块表现突出。 市场风险偏好在稳步改善 吴照银：在过去的三周里，A股市场和全球资本市场的局势都有所缓和。尽管关税战尚未达成最终协 议，市场的整体趋势仍然是朝着稳定的方向发展。我们可以看到市场已经开始慢慢回升，波动幅度逐渐 减小，整体运行状态趋于平稳。同时，市场的风险偏好也在稳步改善。 在这个时间点上，我们对市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have declined from record highs due to easing trade concerns, currently trading below $3300, with significant economic data expected to influence short-term direction [3][4]. Market Sentiment - Gold, as a non-yielding safe-haven asset, has seen a strong performance this year, rising nearly $700 and reaching historical highs multiple times. However, optimism regarding global trade relations has boosted market risk appetite, leading to a shift of funds from gold to riskier assets, which is a primary psychological factor pressuring gold prices [4][6]. - If market risk appetite continues to improve and global trade relations further ease, alongside a strengthening dollar, gold prices may face greater downward pressure [4][6]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices need to effectively break below the $3265-$3260 range to confirm a larger downward correction. If this level is breached, prices could quickly drop towards the $3225 50% retracement level, potentially targeting the $3200 mark. A drop below $3200 would suggest that gold may have peaked in the short term [4][6]. - The $3260 level has become a focal point for the market, and investors should closely monitor whether gold can touch or break this level. A significant breach would reinforce a bearish trend and could lead to deeper adjustments [6][7]. Trading Strategy - A conservative approach suggests waiting for a rebound near $3300 to enter short positions, targeting a break below $3260 to aim for $3230. More aggressive traders may consider entering short positions around the current price of $3287, with plans to add to positions on any rebounds [7][9].

4月23日，美股三大指数集体高开。据Wind数据显示，截至北京时间23:15，道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普500指数分别涨2.32%、3.90%、2.85%。 中概股表现强势，纳斯达克中国金龙指数开盘后强势拉升， 截至北京时间23:15，该指数涨超4% 。 国际金价大幅回调，COMEX黄金期货、伦敦现货黄金盘中双双跳水；COMEX白银期货、伦敦现货白银则明显走高。 美股全线走高 Wind数据显示，截至北京时间23:15，道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普500指数分别涨2.32%、3.90%、2.85%。 美国大型科技股悉数走高。 截至北京时间23:15，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨幅为4.58%，特斯拉领涨，涨幅超8%。 | < w | 万得美国科技七巨头指数[MAG' | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 45123.80 1976.40 4.58% | | | | 招标 成分 | | 资讯 | 相关基金 | | 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌幅 一 | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | | 258.581 | 8.66% | | TSLA.O | | | | | 亚马逊(A ...

期货热点追踪 市场风险偏好回暖，金价大幅调整，沪金失守800元关键防线，短期避险逻辑遭重创？ 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures rebounded but was blocked. The US is in trade negotiations with other countries, and the Fed's hawkish remarks have weakened expectations of a bailout, leading to low market risk appetite. China's Q1 export and economic indicators exceeded expectations due to pre - tariff exports and policy support. The large - scale delivery of LME zinc inventory has raised concerns about overseas consumption, pressuring zinc prices at home and abroad. Domestic downstream buyers purchased at low prices, reducing social inventory to 100,000 tons, which provides support. The supply pressure is expected to increase as smelters have a mix of production cuts and restarts. Zinc ingot imports opened and then closed, with limited inflow of imported goods, resulting in a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The galvanizing industry's operating rate increased slightly due to strong tower orders and some companies' pre - tariff exports, while the operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide industries declined. Overall, as the US enters the tariff negotiation stage and China is expected to introduce policies to hedge against overseas risks, market sentiment is expected to improve but may be volatile. Fundamentals are weak, but strong downstream purchases and inventory reduction provide support. In the short term, there is no clear single - sided driver, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely at a low level [3][10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | April 11 | April 18 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22,660 | 22,050 | - 610 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2,661 | 2,595 | - 66 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.52 | 8.50 | - 0.02 | | | SHFE Inventory | 63,857 | 58,585 | - 5,272 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 119,350 | 195,350 | 76,000 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 102,100 | 100,000 | - 2,100 | Tons | | Spot Premium | 120 | 160 | 40 | Yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2506, rebounded but then fell back. With tariffs in the negotiation stage and macro - trading being volatile, along with a large - scale delivery of LME inventory, zinc prices closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.58%. On Friday night, the oscillation center moved slightly higher. LME zinc oscillated downward, closing at 2,595 US dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 2.48% due to inventory increases and concerns about demand prospects [5] - In the spot market, as of April 18, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was 22,410 - 22,510 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers' inventory from previous purchases had not decreased, so their inquiry enthusiasm weakened, and traders lowered their quotes, causing the spot premium to continue to decline [6] - In terms of inventory, as of April 17, LME zinc inventory increased by 76,000 tons to 195,350 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 5,272 tons to 58,585 tons, and social inventory decreased to 100,000 tons. Due to lower zinc prices during the week, downstream buyers purchased more at low prices, with significant inventory reductions in Shanghai and Tianjin, while inventory in Guangdong changed little [7] - In the macro - aspect, Fed Chairman Powell warned about the inflationary effects of Trump's trade policies. Trump criticized Powell for being slow to act and said that a US - Ukraine mineral agreement would be signed on the 24th. The US government initiated a 232 national security investigation on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports. Trump mentioned measures to help automakers adjust their supply chains. He was confident about reaching a trade agreement with the EU but was not in a hurry. The EU might impose export restrictions on the US if negotiations broke down. Trump said that US - Japan negotiations had made significant progress but no substantial documents had been signed. The European Central Bank cut interest rates. Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized early and rapid policy implementation [7][8] - China's March export in US dollars increased by 12.4% year - on - year, with a trade surplus of 102.64 billion US dollars, a 75.2% year - on - year increase. Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year and 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. March industrial added value increased by 7.7% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 5.9% year - on - year [9] 3.3 Industry News - As of the week ending April 18, the average weekly domestic TC of SMM Zn50 was flat at 3,450 yuan/metal ton, and the average weekly imported TC was flat at 35 US dollars/dry ton [13] - An East China smelter plans to conduct maintenance on its zinc production line from May 5 to May 31, affecting about 4,000 tons of zinc ingot output. A Southwest smelter postponed its April maintenance to May. New maintenance was added in East and Central China, but with new capacity release and restart after maintenance, supply pressure is expected to increase. Some smelters plan to increase production, while others postpone maintenance due to high sulfuric acid prices [13][14] - A large die - casting zinc alloy factory in East China has suspended raw material procurement due to high inventory and plans to stop production for inventory consumption. If inventory consumption is not good, it may extend the holiday or resume production after the May Day holiday [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, the ratio between domestic and foreign markets, spot premiums, LME premiums, inventory levels of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and the operating rates of downstream primary enterprises [16][21]