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行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 7 月 18 日 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and mixed factors of stable downstream demand in power and positive growth in auto production and sales, while slowdown in home appliance output growth and weak real estate [2] - Zinc prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term as concentrate processing fees are rising, market expects improved concentrate supply and possible recovery in smelting supply, with mixed downstream demand factors similar to copper [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed higher. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power industry growing, auto production and sales positive, home appliance output growth slowing, and real estate remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate in a range. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 77,840 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,678 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 58.71 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 121,000 tons, and the daily change was 10,525 tons [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising. Domestic auto production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak. The market expects significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and possible recovery in smelting supply. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,130 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 25 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,738 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 3.20 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 121,350 tons, and the daily change was 2,750 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,455 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 110 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,589 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 3.28 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 423,525 tons, and the daily change was 6,550 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 119,880 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,370 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,065 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 197.77 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 207,288 tons, and the daily change was 708 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,845 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 205 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,978 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 27.85 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 269,225 tons, and the daily change was - 1,850 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 261,920 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,260 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,070 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 33.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,035 tons, and the daily change was 55 tons [2]

Group 1 - The majority of domestic futures main contracts have risen, with coking coal increasing by over 2% [1] - SC crude oil, European shipping, rubber, and palm oil have all risen by more than 1.5% [1] - In terms of declines, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has dropped by over 1%, and polysilicon has decreased by nearly 1% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints Urea - The main logic for the stabilization of the urea futures market is the improved demand - side expectations, but the high - supply pressure still limits the rebound height. Future demand improvement expectations, along with partial device overhauls, support the futures price [5]. Polyolefin - For PP and PE, there is a lack of strong driving forces. The static situation shows a double - decline in supply and demand, inventory accumulation, and weak apparent demand. However, there are expectations of demand improvement for PE in late July. Suggested strategies include range - bound operations for both PP and PE, and taking profit when the LP spread reaches around 250 [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - Different products in the polyester industry chain have different outlooks. PX may be boosted in the short - term, PTA is expected to be supported in the short - term, MEG is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, short - fiber has limited driving forces, and bottle - chip has expectations of supply - demand improvement [48]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to expectations of marginal supply contraction and supply uncertainties caused by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band - trading strategy [52]. Methanol - The inland methanol market is expected to see an increase in production in late July. The port market faces pressure from expected arrivals and planned MTO overhauls, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation from July to August. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations [73]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, there is limited supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals, but high profits stimulate high production. It is recommended that previous long - position holders temporarily exit and wait and see. For PVC, the current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [81]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in July, but its own driving force is limited. For styrene, the supply - demand is marginally repaired, but the supply - demand expectation is still weak. Short - term price support may come from the overall positive sentiment in the domestic commodity market [86]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On July 17, the 01 contract closed at 1718 yuan/ton (up 0.47% from July 16), the 05 contract at 1730 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), the 09 contract at 1743 yuan/ton (up 0.58%), and the methanol - main contract at 2373 yuan/ton (up 0.25%) [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 12 yuan/ton on July 17 (up 29.41% from July 16), the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was - 13 yuan/ton (down 116.67%), and the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was 25 yuan/ton (up 8.70%) [2]. - **Main Positions**: On July 17, the long - position of the top 20 was 110750 (down 1.28% from July 16), the short - position of the top 20 was 123632 (up 1.78%), and the long - to - short ratio was 0.90 (down 3.00%) [3]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Most upstream raw material prices remained stable, with only slight changes in a few items such as动力煤港口(秦皇岛) (up 0.32%) and合成氨(山东) (down 0.33%) [4]. - **Spot Market Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed minor fluctuations, with some prices decreasing slightly [4]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily production decreased slightly on July 18 compared to July 17. Weekly data showed a decrease in domestic urea production, an increase in device overhaul losses, a decrease in factory inventory, and an increase in port inventory [5]. Polyolefin - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 17, L2601 closed at 7235 yuan/ton (up 0.14% from July 16), L2509 at 7215 yuan/ton (up 0.01%), PP2601 at 7016 yuan/ton (up 0.11%), and PP2509 at 7020 yuan/ton (up 0.10%). Some spot prices remained unchanged [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories increased, and the operating rates of some devices and downstream industries decreased [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased slightly. Downstream polyester product prices and cash - flows showed various changes, with some prices rising and some cash - flows changing significantly [48]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of different segments in the polyester industry chain showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [48]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 18, Brent crude oil was at 69.52 US dollars/barrel (up 1.46% from July 17), WTI at 67.55 US dollars/barrel (up 0.01%), and there were also changes in various price spreads [52]. - **Supply - Demand and Market Logic**: Supply decreased due to factors such as a decline in US crude oil inventories and production cuts in the Iraqi Kurdish region. Market focus has shifted to supply - side risks [52]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, MA2601 closed at 2438 yuan/ton (up 0.16% from July 16), MA2509 at 2373 yuan/ton (up 0.25%), and there were changes in various regional price spreads [73]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased slightly, while port and social inventories increased. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries also changed [73]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: For PVC and caustic soda, futures and spot prices showed minor changes, and there were also changes in price spreads [76]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and its downstream industries changed, and inventory levels also showed different trends [79][80][81]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, the price of pure benzene and styrene and their related price spreads changed. For example, the price of benzene - ethylene in the East China spot market decreased [85]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and operating rates showed different trends, with some operating rates decreasing [85][86].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall grain production in the year has a good foundation. Summer grain production achieved stable yields and a bumper harvest, with a national summer grain output of 299.48 billion catties, the second - highest in history after last year [1]. - The retail price threshold for the super - luxury car consumption tax has been adjusted to 900,000 yuan (excluding VAT) [1]. - Guangzhou is soliciting opinions on the implementation measures for converting commercial personal housing loans to housing provident fund personal housing loans, with different measures based on the housing provident fund personal housing loan rate [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry** - The scope of super - luxury cars subject to consumption tax has been adjusted to include vehicles with a retail price of 900,000 yuan (excluding VAT) and above of various power types [1]. - Summer grain production overcame drought in some areas, achieving stable yields and laying a solid foundation for annual grain production [1]. - **Service Industry** - Guangzhou is seeking public opinions on the implementation measures for converting commercial personal housing loans to housing provident fund personal housing loans, with different control measures based on the loan - to - deposit ratio [2]. B. Industry Overview - **Upstream** - International oil prices are fluctuating [3]. - Egg prices are rising [3]. - **Mid - stream** - The operating rates of polyester and PX are stable [4]. - **Downstream** - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are stable at a low level [5]. - The number of domestic flights during the summer vacation has increased [5]. C. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - Different industries have different credit spread values and trends. For example, the credit spread of the real estate industry decreased from 101.86 last week to 99.89 this week, with a quantile of 2.70 [48]. D. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Various industries have different price trends. For instance, the spot price of corn in the agricultural industry was 2327.1 yuan/ton on July 17, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.15%, while the spot price of eggs was 5.8 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year increase of 4.91% [49].