| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周二尿素主力合约 | 2601 | 价格 | 1630 | 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 | 1670 | 元/吨。持仓 | | | | | | | | | | | | 方面，多头持仓增加 | 234 | 手至 | 17.86 | 万手，空头持仓增加 | 4367 | 手至 | 19.34 | 万手。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 | 20.03 | 万吨，较上一工作日-0.27 | 万吨；较去年同期增 | 加 | 1.18 | 万吨；今日开工率 | 82.82%，较去年同期 | 83.38%下降升 | 0.56%。 | | | | | | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 | 123.42 ...

【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡，最终报收 2129（+11/+0.52%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1940 元/吨，北线报价 1960 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2020 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1900 元/吨，山西地区报价 2010 元/吨，河南地区报价 2110 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2190 元/吨，鲁北报价 2220 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2130 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2100 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2100 元/吨，宁波报价 2110 元/吨，广州报价 2060 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期(20251206-20251212）国际甲醇（除中国）产量为 914499 吨，较上周下降 30956 吨，装置产能利用率为 62.69%，较上周下降 2.12%。 研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 甲醇日报 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 450 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽 松。进口端，美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，暂未招标，非伊开工提升， 外 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures Container Shipping Index (European Line) Daily Report [1][3] - Report Date: December 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Jia Ruilin [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The SCFIS released yesterday was lower than market expectations, causing a slight downward adjustment in EC2512. The market continues to speculate on the January freight rate trend and peak, with the EC market maintaining a volatile trend. Attention is focused on the January first - week quotes from MSK [5]. - The spot freight rate situation has improved recently, and shipping companies have started to announce price increases for January. There are still price - increase expectations for the first week of January. The demand is expected to gradually improve from December to January, while the supply shows different trends in January and February 2026. The short - term market will remain highly volatile, and the key to future price expectations lies in the January price adjustment rhythm. Geopolitically, the second phase of the Israel - Palestine peace talks has begun, and the statements of shipping companies and the post - Spring Festival resumption of shipping schedules need to be observed [6]. Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - On December 16, 2025, EC2602 closed at 1686.8 points, down 3.39% from the previous day. On December 12, the SCFI European Line was reported at $1538/TEU, up 9.8% month - on - month. The latest delivery settlement price of the EC2512 contract on Monday was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% month - on - month, lower than market expectations, leading to a downward adjustment in the EC2512 contract [5]. - In terms of spot freight rates, shipping companies have announced price increases for January. The demand from December to January is expected to improve, and the supply shows different trends in January and February 2026. The January capacity has increased slightly by 3% compared to the previous week's schedule, mainly due to the addition of 4 ships and 2 suspended ships. The February capacity has decreased by 3.7% compared to the previous week, mainly due to the PA Alliance adding 3 suspended ships and 2 large ships of about 24,000 TEU [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: For the EC2602 contract, some long positions can be considered for partial profit - taking and partial holding. Attention should be paid to the subsequent price announcements by shipping companies and the improvement rhythm of cargo volume [7]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. Group 5: Industry News - ONE announced a new east - west route network arrangement, which will be officially implemented in April 2026, still maintaining the route via the Cape of Good Hope, and FE3 will no longer call at Shanghai [10]. - According to foreign media reports, MSC has made an acquisition offer to ZIM [11]. - US media reported that the White House privately rebuked Netanyahu for violating the cease - fire agreement [12]. - The Indonesian Finance Minister plans to impose a tariff on coal exports starting from January 1, 2026 [13]. Group 6: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, the SCFI Composite Index, and container freight rates for various routes [15][17][22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of peanuts is expected to be relatively stable in the short term, with the current supply increasing and downstream demand remaining weak. The peanut futures will continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the 03 contract still has room to decline. The spot price of peanut oil is stable, and the peanut meal has been stable recently, with good theoretical profits for oil mills from pressing [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data - **Futures Disk**: PK604 closed at 7914, down 90 or -1.14%, with a trading volume of 58,050 (up 13.45%) and an open interest of 31,491 (down 1.02%); PK510 closed at 8184, down 18 or -0.22%, with a trading volume of 116 (up 52.63%) and an open interest of 901 (up 6.25%); PK601 closed at 8048, down 42 or -0.52%, with a trading volume of 12,773 (down 9.72%) and an open interest of 26,137 (down 18.62%) [1]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7800, 8200, and 8200 respectively, all unchanged. The prices of Rizhao peanut meal, Rizhao soybean meal, peanut oil, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil were 3250, 3060, 14380, and 8400 respectively, with the soybean oil price down 40. The basis was -248, 152, 152 respectively. The import prices of Sudanese peanuts were 8600 and Senegalese peanuts were 7600, both unchanged [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread of PK01 - PK04 was 134 (down 48), PK04 - PK10 was -72, and PK10 - PK01 was 136 (up 24) [1]. Second Part: Market Analysis - **Peanut Prices**: Peanut prices in Henan have declined, and those in Northeast China are weak. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.75 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Changtu, Liaoning it was 4.7 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 3.65 - 3.8 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin; in Junan, Shandong it was 3.4 yuan/jin, unchanged. Imported peanut prices were stable [3]. - **Peanut Oil and By - products**: Some peanut oil mills raised their purchase prices today, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 6900 - 7600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 7860 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable, with domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 14500 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton. The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal dropped to 3050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the 48 - protein peanut meal was quoted at 3120 yuan/ton [3][4]. Third Part: Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Contracts 03 and 05 of peanuts will fluctuate at a high level, and short - sell contract 03 on rallies [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8]. - **Options**: Sell the put option PK603 - P - 8200 on rallies [9]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [11][17][20].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-16燃料油早报 利多： 1. 俄罗斯燃油出口限制 2. 美俄会谈取消，对俄石油相关企业发起制裁 利空： 行情驱动：供应端受地缘风险影响与需求中性共振 风险点：OPEC+内部团结破坏；战争风险升级 1.需求端乐观仍待验证 2.上游端原油承压受挫 每日期货行情 1、基本面：由于套利经济性不佳，自西方市场抵运至新加坡的低硫燃料油到货量预计在12月份出现三个月以来 的首次下降。但贸易人士称，近期的一些租船活动可能会导致1月份的流入量再次反弹；欧洲市场供应依然充足， 预计到年底前将进一步承压，因为欧洲炼油厂检修季的结束，导致过剩的供应 ...

12月16日，广期所钯主力合约涨幅扩大至6%，报429.45元/克。 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 焦炭日报：短期偏震荡运行 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 15 日 【行情分析】 焦炭产量：截止 12 月 12 日独立焦企全样本：产能利用率为 73.16%，减 0.68%；焦炭 日均产量 63.98 万吨，减 0.55 万吨；另外全国 247 家钢厂样本：焦炭日均产量 46.61 减 0.01，产能利用率 85.95% 减 0.02 %。 焦炭库存，钢厂焦炭库存累增 10 万吨至 635.28 万吨，同时独立焦企焦炭库存也增加 10.88 万吨至 87.32 万吨，创近 5 个月高位，港口库存 181.2 万吨，同比增幅达 27%，焦 炭综合库存 903.8 万吨、增加 20.8 万吨。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况，平均吨焦盈利 44 元/吨；山西准一 级焦平均盈利 61 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 100 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利 5 元/ 吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利 89 元/吨。 下游需求方面，随着季节性淡季逐步深入，钢材市场供需双减，247 家钢厂盈利率减 少 ...

瑞达期货（002961）指出，晚富士苹果产区出库速度不快，客商按需寻货，甘肃产区伴随质量下滑价格 下调，其余产区价格表现尚且稳定。据Mysteel统计，截至2025年12月11日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存 量为758.55万吨，较上周减少4.97万吨。山东产区库容比为53.73%，较上周减少0.24%，陕西产区库容 比为57.86%，较上周减少0.35%，山东产区出库氛围仍不旺，库内零星交易。蓬莱外贸渠道小果出库略 有减缓，少量75#果货源出库。陕西各产区走货相对冷清，低价货源出库尚可，果农好货成交略放缓。 洛川产区主要以客商包装手中货源发自有渠道居多，少量调货以果农两级货源。销区市场到货量减少， 因价格较高走货同比不快，砂糖橘及其他柑橘类水果对苹果销售形成冲击。短期暂且观望为主。 国信期货表示，成交不多，电商采购其他品种。冷库库存量偏低，客商采购积极性一般，多空力量持续 博弈，盘面整体维持高位震荡，操作建议以震荡思路对待。 12月15日，国内期市农副产品板块多数飘红。其中，苹果期货主力合约开盘报9485.00元/吨，今日盘中 低位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，苹果主力最高触及9485.00元，下方探低9181.00 ...

纯苯苯乙烯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 17 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析-纯苯】 【交易策略】 单边：震荡偏弱，逢高做空 套利：空纯苯多苯乙烯 目录 目录 | 第一章 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 核心逻辑分析 | 8 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 16 | 裂解价差回落 汽油库存上升 调油热度减退 GALAXY FUTURES 3 单位：百万桶 美国汽油裂解价差 美国汽油库存 单位：美元/桶 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish investment view on LPG, indicating that the current market news is generally "bullish for中下游 PP and propylene, and bearish for upstream crude oil and LPG." The crude oil fundamentals remain loosely and weakly, and the near - term LPG prices are expected to continue the high - level decline trend [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market shows a divergence in domestic and international trends, with an overall supply - demand imbalance in the domestic market. The supply has increased due to the production increase of some refineries in South and East China last week. Although the winter heating demand is gradually improving, the economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material has weakened, and the downstream olefin demand is sluggish. The inventory has increased, and the price is expected to continue to decline [5][6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The LPG futures main contract trended downward, with a fluctuation range of 4,180 - 4,330 yuan/ton. The international LPG price was still strong, but the international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the propylene futures price was weak. The domestic PDH plant profit continued to lose money, and the market supply exceeded demand. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 195 yuan/ton, in South China was 200 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 180 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was in Shandong [6]. 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 52.29 million tons, including 21.87 million tons of civil gas, 19.35 million tons of industrial gas, and 17.12 million tons of ether - after C4. The LPG arrival volume was 283.44 million tons. Some refineries in South and East China increased production last week, so the supply increased. There is no news of refinery start - up or shutdown this week, but there are both some plant shutdowns and start - ups, and the domestic commodity volume is expected to change little [5]. 3.3 Demand - The winter heating demand is gradually coming, and the LPG combustion demand is gradually improving, with a slow recovery in demand. However, the absolute value of the PN spread has narrowed, the economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material has weakened, and the substitution effect is limited due to the weak downstream olefin demand. The domestic propylene market has a serious oversupply, and the high - load operation of PDH plants suppresses the procurement demand for raw material propane. The European and American blenders have a strong demand for MTBE driven by the structural shortage of gasoline in the Atlantic Basin. The domestic isobutane dehydrogenation plants are operating at a high start - up rate, and although the profit loss has increased with the rise of raw material prices, the rigid demand is relatively resilient [5]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was 201.00 million tons, and the port inventory was 215.20 million tons. Affected by the short - term weakness of international crude oil, the prices in various regions rose first and then fell. Coupled with the supply increase in some regions, downstream buyers chose to wait and see, which led to an increase in factory inventory. At the port, the arrival of ships increased, and the inventory of some ships arriving at the end of last week was reflected this week, with sufficient imported resources. With the continuous arrival of ships, the port shipping volume increased, but the port still showed an inventory accumulation trend [5]. 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was 195 yuan/ton in East China, 200 yuan/ton in South China, and 180 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume was 5,476 lots, an increase of 0 lots, and the lowest deliverable location was in Shandong [5][6]. 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The start - up rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were not fully filled in the data. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and Shandong alkylation were - 555 yuan/ton, - 172 yuan/ton, and - 484 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.27, and the PG main - secondary monthly difference was - 1.13% (84 yuan/ton). In the fourth quarter, the gas price was firm, while the crude oil returned to a bearish trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread showed a weakening trend [5]. 3.8 Other Factors - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 and slightly narrowed the supply surplus forecast. OPEC+ slightly increased crude oil production in November, and OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, stabilizing the real estate market, and implementing a special action to boost consumption. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the expectation of further rate cuts in the future has increased, with Morgan and Citi unanimously expecting another rate cut in January [5]. 3.9 Investment Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, pay attention to the PG3 - 4 reverse spread, long PG and short SC, and long PP and short PG [5].