Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, falling below 156 yen per dollar, influenced by political statements and economic concerns [1] Economic Impact - The Tokyo stock market experienced continued pressure, with the Nikkei 225 index closing down by 0.34% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index down by 0.17% [1] - The yield on newly issued 10-year Japanese government bonds rose to 1.76%, the highest level since June 2008 [1] - In a recent 20-year bond auction, the highest successful bid yield reached 2.833%, surpassing the previous 2.684%, marking the highest level in approximately 26 years since July 1999 [1] Investor Sentiment - Concerns over Prime Minister Sanna Marin's proposed expansionary fiscal policies have led to fears of further deterioration in Japan's fiscal situation, resulting in a sell-off of Japanese government bonds and a continuous rise in long-term interest rates [1]

Core Insights - The report analyzes the current state and future trends of US dollar liquidity through a three-dimensional observation matrix, focusing on the federal funds market, the repo market, and the offshore dollar market, indicating that while liquidity remains ample, structural pressures are building [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Funds Market - The core observation metric has shifted from "price" to "scale," with total reserves in the banking system reflecting the abundance of base dollars. As of September 2025, total reserves are maintained at $3.2 trillion, accounting for 12.9% of total bank assets, indicating a relatively ample liquidity condition [1][11]. - Despite the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction since June 2022, the use of reverse repo tools has buffered the impact, preventing a significant withdrawal of reserves from the banking system [1][11]. - Continuous balance sheet reduction, rising Treasury General Account balances, and the nearing exhaustion of overnight reverse repo tools indicate that reserves are under pressure and may approach the liquidity warning line set by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 2: Repo Market - The repo market serves as a crucial hub for dollar liquidity, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the behavior of primary dealers being key observation points. Recently, the spread between SOFR and the overnight reverse repo rate has widened, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [2][18]. - The ratio of primary dealer reverse repos to reserve balances has been increasing, suggesting a tightening of funding supply, although it has not yet reached crisis levels seen in past financial stress periods [2][18]. - The Federal Reserve's standing repo facility has been heavily utilized at quarter-end, highlighting vulnerabilities in the repo market during structural gaps [2][21]. Group 3: Offshore Dollar Market - The offshore dollar market has shown characteristics of "bondification" and "derivatization," with traditional bank credit declining and bonds and foreign exchange derivatives becoming the main drivers of credit expansion [2][25]. - Monitoring offshore dollar liquidity is challenging through quantity indicators; thus, the currency swap basis has become an important observation metric. A widening basis indicates dollar scarcity, while a narrowing trend since 2025 suggests maintained liquidity even under external shocks [2][30]. - The transition from LIBOR to SOFR as the primary pricing benchmark reflects a shift in global dollar pricing power from offshore to onshore markets, diminishing the relevance of LIBOR-related indicators [2][29].

证 券 研 究 报 告 刚性"泡沫" ——2026年海外宏观经济展望 证券分析师：赵伟 A0230524070010 陈达飞 A0230524080010 2025.11.19 ◼ 2022年底ChatGPT诞生以来，大类资产价格的泡沫化与分化并存，反映的是AI产业趋势的"强预期"和经济周期"弱现实" 的冲突。2025年，特朗普"对等关税"冲击有惊无险；美国经济"软着陆"；央行"降息潮"继续演绎和美元"意外"走弱； 权益等风险资产与黄金等避险资产"齐飞"。但历史回溯而言，当"强预期"和"弱现实"的割裂演绎到极致时，"泡沫" 破裂的风险或趋于上行。 ◼ 2025年，贸易"前置"推动美国与非美经济"大收敛"——美国"前低后高"、非美"前高后低"。2026年，美、欧、日 经济周期依然存在冲突。美国经济"软着陆"仍是基准假设，私人消费的主要矛盾是"缺钱、缺人、缺工作"，AI资本开支 对GDP的拉动或边际走弱，地产链企稳、但弹性偏弱；欧元区核心国与外围国从分化走向收敛，可关注德国制造的周期性复 苏；日本"物价-工资-利润"良性循环启动，关注内循环的持续性。 ◼ 2026年，美、欧、日货币政策周期趋于分化，财政扩张的力度 ...

在近期举行的2025金融街论坛年会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜透露，将恢复公开市场国债买卖操作。 央行在公开市场买卖国债是增强国债金融功能、发挥国债收益率曲线定价基准作用、增进货币政策与财 政政策相互协同的重要举措，也有利于我国债券市场改革发展和金融机构提升做市定价能力。 近日，中国人民银行公布的2025年10月份中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况显示，公开市场国债买卖净 投放200亿元。这意味着，自今年1月起暂停的国债买卖操作已于10月份恢复。 买卖国债是货币政策工具箱中的一种常规操作，其主要定位于基础货币投放和流动性管理，既可买入也 可卖出，并通过与其他工具灵活搭配，提升短中长期流动性管理的科学性和精准性。 来源：经济日报 "与年初暂停国债买卖时相比，当前10年期国债收益率已升至1.8%附近，期限利差走阔，债市整体运行 良好。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，当前恢复国债买卖操作，加大对银行体系长期流动性的支 持，也在进一步释放稳增长信号，有助于稳定今年四季度和明年一季度宏观经济运行。 大公国际首席宏观分析师刘祥东表示，从宏观货币政策层面看，央行此举体现适度宽松的货币政策取 向，既避免流动性紧张又不释放过度宽松 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the fiscal data for October shows a slight narrowing in the year-on-year growth rate of tax revenue, with consumption-related tax categories maintaining a positive contribution [2][6][7] - It is anticipated that incremental policies will be expected towards the end of this year and the beginning of next year to support economic growth [6][9] Macroeconomic Overview - In October, total public fiscal revenue reached 22,614 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with tax revenue at 20,700 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year [6][7] - Non-tax revenue fell to 1,914 billion yuan, down 33.0% year-on-year, indicating a significant decline [6][7] - The domestic value-added tax contributed positively to the tax revenue growth, increasing by 7.2% year-on-year, which boosted the overall tax revenue growth by 3.0 percentage points [7] - Public fiscal expenditure in October was 17,761 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in spending [7][8] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Central government fund revenue was 342 billion yuan, up 10.0% year-on-year, while local government fund revenue was 3,414 billion yuan, down 20.4% year-on-year [8] - The income from state-owned land use rights fell by 27.3% year-on-year, significantly impacting local government fund revenue [8] - Government fund expenditure totaled 5,968 billion yuan, down 38.2% year-on-year, with local government fund expenditure declining by 40.4% [8] Economic Growth Support - The report notes that the fiscal expenditure and financing pace have been front-loaded this year, supporting economic performance, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [9] - The upcoming central economic work conference and the "Two Sessions" in the new year are expected to provide important guidance on fiscal and policy financial tools [9]

Core Insights - The October fiscal data shows a clear divergence in revenue and expenditure, with tax revenue continuing to grow significantly, likely due to improvements in prices affecting nominal variables [2] - Non-tax revenue growth has hit a five-year low, indicating challenges in revitalizing state-owned assets [2] - General fiscal expenditure growth has notably slowed, with the possibility of either accelerating spending by year-end or rolling over to next year, which will directly impact next year's fiscal spending strength [2] - Land transfer revenue has again shown negative growth, putting pressure on land finance [2] - The urgent task for fiscal policy is to implement existing policies effectively to generate more tangible work output [2] Revenue Analysis - From January to October, fiscal revenue has increased by 0.8% year-on-year, surpassing the initial budget growth target by 0.1%, indicating that achieving the annual target is feasible with a required decline of only 3.7% in November and December [3] - Tax revenue growth has slightly underperformed expectations, and adjustments in the revenue structure have been insufficient [3] - Government fund revenue needs to achieve a 5.3% year-on-year growth in the last two months, with potential for a year-end surge in land transfer revenue [3] Expenditure Analysis - Fiscal expenditure from January to October has increased by 2.0% year-on-year, while the annual budget anticipates a 4.4% increase, necessitating a significant 12.9% growth in the last two months [3] - Government fund expenditure is expected to require a 40.3% year-on-year increase, suggesting a potential for accelerated spending in the coming months, including possible year-end spending spikes [3] Future Outlook - The report maintains the view that fiscal policy in 2026 will likely be proactive and expansionary, focusing on "investment in things" and "investment in people," with an expected fiscal expansion similar to 2025 [2] - The anticipated fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is around 4%, with special bonds projected at 5 trillion and special treasury bonds at approximately 2 trillion, leading to an expected total fiscal expenditure of 43 trillion, an increase of 1.13 trillion from 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for October indicates a stable development in the banking sector, with a need for a more precise and coordinated monetary policy moving forward [2][6]. Monetary Supply and Financing Structure - As of October 2025, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.2% year-on-year, maintaining a high growth rate despite a higher base from the previous year [2]. - Narrow money supply (M1) increased by 6.2%, showing a recovery from previous lows, indicating improved business activity and consumer demand [2]. - The M1-M2 spread narrowed to 2%, reflecting a shift towards demand deposits [2]. Total Financing and Loan Growth - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first ten months reached 30.9 trillion yuan, exceeding the previous year's figure by 3.83 trillion yuan [3]. - In October, social financing and RMB loans increased by 815 billion yuan and 220 billion yuan, respectively, both showing a year-on-year decrease [3]. - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points from the previous year, indicating a decline in overall financing costs [3]. Direct Financing and Policy Tools - Direct financing through corporate bonds and stock financing showed positive growth, with net bond financing up by 1.482 billion yuan and stock financing up by 412 billion yuan in October [4]. - The introduction of new policy financial tools contributed to an increase in entrusted loans by 165.3 billion yuan, indicating a stronger collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies [5]. Economic Demand and Loan Trends - There is a noted decline in household loans, with a reduction of 360.4 billion yuan in October, reflecting weak consumer demand [5]. - Corporate loan growth was primarily supported by bill financing, while long-term loans showed only a slight increase, indicating insufficient effective demand from businesses [5]. Banking Sector Indicators - The net interest margin for commercial banks remained stable at 1.42%, but there are concerns about rising non-performing loans [6]. - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the central bank is being discussed, but significant reductions are unlikely in the short term [6]. Future Monetary Policy Direction - Future monetary policy is expected to focus on precision, coordination, and balance, with an emphasis on directing financial resources to key sectors such as technology and green initiatives [7]. - The central bank aims to maintain reasonable interest rate relationships to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission [7].

各级财政部门落实更加积极的财政政策，加大支出强度，优化支出结构，持续加强对重点领域的支出保 障。1—10月，全国一般公共预算支出22.58万亿元，同比增长2%，其中，社会保障和就业支出增长 9.3%，教育支出增长4.7%，卫生健康支出增长2.4%，科学技术支出增长5.7%，节能环保支出增长7%。 本报北京11月18日电 （记者曲哲涵）财政部17日公布，10月份，全国一般公共预算收入月度增幅继续 提高，累计增幅稳步回升。全国一般公共预算支出保持增长，重点领域支出得到保障。 同时，1—10月，全国政府性基金预算收入3.45万亿元，同比下降2.8%；全国政府性基金预算支出8.09 万亿元，增长15.4%。 10月份，全国一般公共预算收入2.26万亿元，同比增长3.2%。其中，中央、地方收入分别增长2.3%、 4%。1—10月，全国一般公共预算收入18.65万亿元，增长0.8%，增幅比1—9月提高0.3个百分点。 税收收入持续较快增长。10月份，全国税收收入2.07万亿元，增长8.6%，与上月的8.7%基本持平。1— 10月，全国税收收入15.34万亿元，增长1.7%，增幅比1—9月提高1个百分点。其中，国内增值税、 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the steady recovery in China's general public budget revenue and expenditure, with a notable increase in tax revenue and targeted spending in key areas [1][2][3] Group 2 - In October, the national general public budget revenue reached 2.26 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with central and local revenues growing by 2.3% and 4% respectively [1] - From January to October, the total general public budget revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.8%, which is an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [1] - Tax revenue in October amounted to 2.07 trillion yuan, growing by 8.6%, maintaining a similar rate to the previous month [1] - For the first ten months, tax revenue totaled 15.34 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous nine months [1] - Key tax categories showed varied growth: domestic value-added tax increased by 4%, domestic consumption tax by 2.4%, corporate income tax by 1.9%, and individual income tax by 11.5% [1] - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries demonstrated strong tax performance, with computer and communication equipment manufacturing tax revenue growing by 12.7% and electrical machinery tax revenue by 7.9% [1] Group 3 - From January to October, national general public budget expenditure reached 22.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] - Specific areas of expenditure growth included social security and employment at 9.3%, education at 4.7%, health at 2.4%, and science and technology at 5.7% [2] - Government fund budget revenue for the same period was 3.45 trillion yuan, a decline of 2.8%, while government fund budget expenditure rose by 15.4% to 8.09 trillion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced the resumption of open market operations for government bonds, which is a significant move to enhance the financial function of government bonds and improve the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [1] Group 1: Market Operations - The PBOC's resumption of government bond trading is aimed at enhancing the pricing benchmark role of the government bond yield curve and supporting the development of the bond market [1] - The net injection of 20 billion yuan in October indicates that the bond trading operations, which were paused since January, have now resumed [1] - Government bond trading serves as a conventional monetary policy tool for managing liquidity and can be both bought and sold to improve the scientific and precise management of short- to medium-term liquidity [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that the resumption of bond trading signals increased support for long-term liquidity in the banking system, which is expected to stabilize macroeconomic operations in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year [2] - The PBOC's actions reflect a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance, balancing the need to avoid liquidity tightness while not signaling excessive easing, thus supporting both growth and risk prevention [2] - The 20 billion yuan net buy is seen as a cautious approach, allowing for structural adjustments while maintaining market stability and leaving room for targeted adjustments through other tools if necessary [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The PBOC's current operations may lead to an increase in the scale of net bond purchases to counteract the pressure from other monetary tools maturing in the near future [3] - The fourth quarter is viewed as a critical period for implementing growth-stabilizing policies, with the PBOC expected to maintain ample market liquidity to encourage increased credit issuance by financial institutions [3]