智通财经7月21日电，美国财长贝森特表示，如果通胀数据低，就应该降息。降息将释放房地产市场。 ...

美国财长贝森特：若通胀数据低，就应降低利率。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury Secretary suggests that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be lowered [1] - Lowering interest rates is expected to stimulate the housing market [1] - The development of artificial intelligence is leading to a significant increase in productivity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Wells Fargo's latest report highlights a concerning recession signal hidden behind seemingly optimistic U.S. economic data, specifically a decline in discretionary service spending, which has only decreased during or immediately following economic recessions over the past 60 years [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - Discretionary service spending has been revised down significantly from an initial growth estimate of 2.4% to just 0.6% [1] - As of May, service spending has decreased by 0.3% year-over-year, with specific declines in transportation spending by 1.1% and a dramatic drop in air travel spending by 4.7% [1] - Households are delaying car repairs, reducing ride-sharing usage, and cutting back on air travel expenses, indicating financial strain [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation Insights - Despite stable growth in non-discretionary goods, the report suggests that this growth may be misleading due to preemptive purchases made before tariff increases [2] - Many companies have stockpiled inventory before tariffs took effect, allowing them to temporarily absorb cost pressures without passing them on to consumers [2] - The Federal Reserve is currently divided on economic outlook, with some members advocating for interest rate cuts due to weak employment data, while others believe the economy remains resilient [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold and Silver**: This week, London gold rose 0.09%, and London silver rose 2.05%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 89.4 to 87.5. Gold prices remained in a narrow - range oscillation. Given the strong US economic data, gold is hard to show a trend. Silver is relatively stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio may continue to correct. If silver breaks through 9000 yuan/kg, it may reach around 40 dollars in the third quarter, but there is downward pressure in the second half of the year due to weakening silver paste demand [10]. - **Copper**: Downstream buyers purchase at low prices, and the macro - sentiment improves marginally, supporting price increases. Domestically, copper inventories decrease, and the spot premium strengthens. Globally, total inventories increase mainly due to rising overseas inventories. Uncertainties exist in the macro - environment, but there is strong bottom support. It is recommended to hold long - position cautiously and conduct calendar spread arbitrage [88]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Performance - Gold prices were in a narrow - range oscillation with a slight increase. Silver broke through 9000 yuan/kg, and the gold - silver ratio continued to decline [10]. - The trading volume and open interest of gold and silver futures showed different changes. COMEX and ETF positions also had corresponding adjustments [11]. Price Spread - **Overseas**: The London spot - COMEX gold and silver spreads had specific changes. For example, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 15.55 dollars/ounce [16][19]. - **Domestic**: Gold and silver's domestic term spreads and inter - month spreads were at different positions in the historical range. For example, the gold term spread was at the lower end of the historical range [22]. Inventory and Position - COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, and the registered warrant ratios changed. Gold and silver futures inventories also had corresponding adjustments. ETF positions of gold decreased, while those of silver increased [42][44][54][56]. Core Drivers - The correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10YTIPS continued to decline [65]. Copper Market Performance - LME copper inventories increased significantly, and the 0 - 3 spot discount widened. Domestic copper inventories decreased, and the spot premium strengthened [88][89]. - Four - market copper volatility increased, with COMEX copper volatility reaching around 33% and LME copper at around 7% [94]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The tightness of copper concentrate supply weakened, the spot TC increased marginally, and the smelting loss narrowed. The refined - scrap spread recovered but was still below the break - even point [88]. - **Demand**: In the domestic consumption off - season, orders from processing enterprises weakened marginally in July, but low prices attracted downstream and end - users to buy. The apparent consumption was good, with power grid investment and the growth of air - conditioner and new - energy vehicle production providing support [88]. Trading Strategies - Hold long - position cautiously for single - side trading and conduct calendar spread arbitrage due to the decrease in domestic inventories and the strengthening of the spot premium [88].

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic data from the U.S. indicates a slowdown in inflation, which may impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and subsequently affect silver prices. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June was below market expectations, with a month-on-month change of 0.0% compared to the expected 0.2% increase, and a year-on-year rate of 2.3%, lower than the anticipated 2.5% and May's 2.6% [3] - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also disappointed, showing a month-on-month change of 0.0% (expected 0.2%) and a year-on-year rate of 2.6%, below the expected 2.7% and May's 3.0% [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated that overall inflation met expectations, but core inflation was slightly lower than anticipated, contributing to a softened outlook on aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [3] Silver Price Analysis - Silver prices opened at $37.708, reached a daily high of $38.079, and then fell to a low of $37.473 before closing at $37.897, forming a spinning top candlestick pattern [4] - The upward target for silver is to break through $39.11, which could pave the way towards $40.00, with the next resistance at $40.50 [5] - Downward support levels are identified at $37.50 (previous consolidation high), $36.82 (21-day EMA), and $36.00 (channel support) [6]

Core Viewpoint - The White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that the Federal Reserve's actions are "very, very slow" and emphasized the need for the Fed to return to the "curve where interest rates should be" [1] Group 1 - U.S. inflation data has been consistently good [1] - The Federal Reserve is urged to adjust its approach to interest rates [1]

美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：美联储动作"非常非常缓慢"，通胀数据一直表现良好。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong inflation data in June should not prevent the Bank of England from lowering interest rates in August [1] Inflation Data Summary - The overall inflation rate in the UK rose to 3.6% year-on-year in June, exceeding expectations [1] - Housing costs showed a slowdown in growth, decreasing from 6.7% in May to 6.4% in June, indicating potential easing in service sector inflation in the coming months [1] Central Bank Decision Summary - The inflation report is not expected to alter the Bank of England's decision-making direction, with a rate cut still anticipated in August [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by U.S. inflation data and bond yields, highlighting a recent decline in gold prices followed by a slight recovery in Asian markets. It also emphasizes the ongoing interest of global central banks in accumulating gold as a strategic asset. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On July 15, gold prices fell significantly due to moderate U.S. inflation data and rising U.S. Treasury yields, with spot gold closing down $18.74, a decrease of 0.56%, at $3324.60 per ounce [1] - As of July 16, gold prices turned upward in Asian markets, with COMEX gold rising by 0.37% and London gold increasing by 0.56% [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also seen a decline, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang reporting decreases in their gold prices per gram [3] Group 2: U.S. Inflation Data - The U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in June compared to May, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, marking the fifth consecutive month of inflation data falling below expectations [4][5] - The report indicates that certain categories, particularly those affected by tariffs, have seen price increases, while new and used car prices have decreased [5] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Accumulation - Global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, with a reported net purchase of 20 tons in May. As of the end of June, China's official gold reserves increased by 7,000 ounces [9] - The chief investment officer of DBS Bank expressed optimism about the gold market, projecting a target price of $3765 per ounce for gold by the fourth quarter of 2024 [8] - The article notes that the amount of gold purchased by central banks in the past three years has exceeded the total of the previous decade, suggesting a strong long-term demand for gold [9]