2025 年 5 月 20 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 氧化铝期货将偏强宽幅震荡 铜、原 油期货将偏强震荡 螺纹钢、铁矿石期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2506 阻力位 3850 和 3873 点，支撑位 3830 和 3816 点；IH2506 阻力位 2699 和 2727 点，支撑位 2681 和 2664 点；IC2506 阻力位 5663 和 5700 点，支撑位 5560 和 5544 点；IM2506 阻力位 6000 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market is experiencing a notable adjustment due to a decrease in risk aversion stemming from improved US-China trade relations, leading to a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to risk assets [1][3] - The recent week saw a significant outflow from gold ETFs, exceeding 4 billion yuan, as investors reacted to the easing of trade tensions, which has resulted in a short-term increase in the adjustment magnitude of precious metals [1] - The gold market currently lacks the foundation for a new upward momentum, with high short-term volatility and a rational adjustment process observed in the precious metals market, as indicated by the stable gold-silver ratio around 100 [2] Group 2 - The US-China trade negotiations have progressed beyond expectations, with the US agreeing to significantly reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, which has contributed to a more favorable market environment [3] - The Federal Reserve is considering revising its monetary policy framework in response to changing inflation and interest rate prospects, indicating potential challenges for the economy and central bank [3] - Moody's has downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing persistent budget deficits as a concern, which may impact investor sentiment and market dynamics [3] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) allows investors to gain exposure to gold without the costs associated with physical storage and authentication, enhancing capital efficiency through a T+0 trading mechanism [4]

【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间5月20日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨1.41% 报3232.20美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨0.44%报32.50美元/盎司。 对此有市场分析人士认为，受穆迪下调美国主权信用评级影响，全球市场避险情绪升温，黄金和白银价 格显著上扬。黄金因其保值属性受关注，白银则凭借工业用途和关联性成为吸纳资金对象。 中信建投期货近日撰文认为，近期贵金属行情的核心驱动无疑是贸易争端，对黄金而言，一方面是全球 地缘政治格局演变的一个侧面体现，另一方面又加大了经济衰退压力，使得黄金避险与保值功能体现明 显。 该机构还表示，尽管近期中美达成共识，部分降低了关税，缓和了经济下行风险，但也应意识到目前关 税水平尚未回到4月以前水平，经济下行压力依然存在，并且国际局势正在发生深刻的变化，长期的地 缘政治冲突、贸易冲突乃至军事冲突频发的环境，成为金价长期上行的驱动力。 鑫元基金则认为，短期来看，黄金价格仍可能面临震荡偏弱格局，中美博弈短期内降温、美联储政策预 期暂稳和美元相对强势可能持续抑制金价上行动力。然而，从中长期视角出发，支撑黄金的基本逻辑并 未发生根本变化。一方面，全球央行特 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 20 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-20） | 铁矿：前期政策与情绪驱动的上涨动力逐步减弱，短期内回归基本面。本 | 期澳巴发运回升，随着部分矿山产能的逐步释放和气候条件的改善，供应 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 仍有增加预期。铁水产量高位转降，长流程钢厂利润阶段性修复，上周检 | 铁矿石 | 逢高空配 | 修的高炉本周复产，5 | 月铁水产量将维持在高位，铁矿价格受到高铁水支 | | | | | 撑。铁矿港口库存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。需求才是核 | 心关键，贸易战缓和使得市场对钢铁需求的预期有所改善，但现实需求季 | | | | | | | | 节性走弱，铁矿上方受到淡季需求压制。美国进口商未来三个月将迎来进 | 口成本大幅降低的明确窗口期，对近月需求形成一定支撑，稳健的投资者 | | | | | | | | 尝试铁矿正套，激进的投资者关注贸易冲突缓和带来的远月反弹抛空机 | 会 ...

随着市场完全消化穆迪降级冲击以及避险情绪逐渐消退，在隔夜美股上涨的提振下，亚太股市今日普涨，美债总体持 稳，美联储并不急于降息的表态提振美元，油价盘中走高，黄金小幅下挫。 周一，美股期货小幅下跌，道指期货跌0.11%，标普期货跌0.2%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.3%。 | 名称 - | 月 · | 最新 | 设备 | 最低 | 涨跌额 - | 涨跌幅 · | 时间 ~ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 30 | | 42,743.80 | 42,877.80 | 42,739.30 | -48.10 | -0.11% | 09:41:08 0 | | US 500 | | 5,951.50 | 5,973.70 | 5,950.10 | -12.10 | -0.20% | 09:41:08 0 | | US Tech 100 | | 21,382.00 | 21,486.80 | 21,373.60 | -65.00 | -0.30% | 09:41:08 9 | 日本、韩国、澳大利亚股市集体上涨，日经225指数涨0.48 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年5月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 白银 1、基本面：穆迪降级冲击昙花一现，美股低开高走，银价回升；美国三大股指小 幅收涨，欧洲主要股市表现分化；美元指数跌0.60%报100.37，离岸人民币小幅贬 值报7.2143；美债收益率全线走低，10年期美债收益率跌2.77个基点报4.449%； COMEX白银期货涨0.44%报32.50美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：白银期货8133，现货8104，基差-29，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：沪银期货仓单901432千克，日环比增加14414千克；偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方；偏空 5、 ...

5月19日（周一），黄金快速拉升，伦敦现货黄金一度涨超1.5%，触及3249.83美元／ 盎司；COMEX黄 金直线拉升，最高触及3252.9美元／ 盎司，上金所SGE9999金价突破750元／克整数关口，沪金主力期 货合约最高触及761元／克。 美国市场则呈现"债汇双杀"局面，长期美国国债期货价格跌幅更为明显。截至发稿，美国30年期国债收 益率升至5.02%，创2023年11月以来最高水平，美国10年期国债收益率攀升至4.5%以上；美元指数短线 下挫，跌幅一度达0.7%。 金价上涨受多重因素推动。一方面，美国主权评级下调加剧了市场对美元资产的担忧，"卖出美国"交易 策略重启，避险资金提振了黄金走势。根据新华财经数据显示，在惠誉和标准普尔分别于2023年和2011 年下调美国主权信用评级后，黄金在三个月内均呈现出上行的走势。另一方面，美联储近期表态令市场 降息预期小幅回暖。此外，全球央行黄金购买需求保持强劲，为金价提供了支撑。 新华财经上海5月19日电（葛佳明） 国际评级机构穆迪16日将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，美 国在三大主要国际信用评级机构中的主权信用评级均失去了Aaa的最高等级，引发国际市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, supported by fundamental factors such as the downgrade of the US credit rating, ongoing geopolitical risks, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][5]. Price Movement Summary - On May 19, spot gold prices rose to $3236.91 per ounce, marking a 1.08% increase from an opening price of $3216.39, with a high of $3249.02 and a low of $3205.04 [1]. - The market is currently experiencing a short-term adjustment phase, with prices near key support levels, indicating traders are awaiting clearer directional signals [3]. Market Analysis - The downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's to "AA+" has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, causing gold prices to rise despite a broader market sell-off [5]. - Technical indicators suggest that if gold prices fall below the $3170 support level, they may further decline to the $3100 region or even test the $3000 mark [3]. Trading Strategy - A trading strategy has been suggested to short gold at the current price of $3245, with a protective stop at $3251 and a target of $3207 [7]. - The analysis emphasizes the importance of risk management and capital allocation in trading decisions, advocating for a cautious approach to avoid significant losses [7].

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The current price of gold T+D has surged to 752 RMB per gram, with an increase of 0.56%, while international gold futures in New York have reached 3228.5 USD per ounce, up by 1.30% [2] - Compared to last year, gold prices have risen significantly from around 480 RMB per gram to 645 RMB per gram, marking a remarkable increase of 25% [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Gold prices reflect international geopolitical tensions, with increased conflicts and upcoming elections in Europe and the US heightening market risk aversion, leading to a surge in demand for gold as a safe haven [3] - The relationship between the US dollar and gold is highlighted, where a strong dollar typically weakens gold prices, while a weaker dollar creates favorable conditions for gold price increases [3] Group 3: Young Consumers in the Gold Market - Young consumers aged 25 to 34 account for 55% of gold jewelry purchases, with those under 25 seeing a nearly ninefold increase in transaction volume [4] - Popular shopping destinations for young buyers include Beijing and Shenzhen, where social media has popularized gold buying as a trendy experience [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies in Gold - For conservative investors, bank gold bar products, such as ICBC's gold bars priced at 493 RMB per gram for 20 grams, are considered stable investment options [5] - Young consumers are increasingly drawn to unique gold products, including collaborations with popular IPs, which, despite limited investment value, thrive in the emotional consumption market [5]

说完实物黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 5月19日国内金价快报：国内品牌金店金价在周六的短暂下跌后，再次出现上涨，不过对比上周五的价 格还是稍微低了点。其中，周生生黄金上涨13元/克，报价988元/克，仍是最高价金店。上海中国黄金 不涨不跌，报价943元/克，继续保持最低价金店的身份。今日金店黄金价差45元/克，价差稍稍缩小。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年5月19日） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 982 | 元/克 | 10 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 986 | 元/克 | 10 | 涨 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 986 | 元/克 | 10 | 涨 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 986 | 元/克 | 10 | 涨 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 986 | 元/克 | 10 | 涨 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 983 | 元/克 | 12 | 涨 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 986 | 元/克 | 10 | 涨 ...