各位朋友早上好，我是帮主郑重——干了20年财经记者，也靠中长线投资摸爬滚打了这些年，凌晨美股那波跳水，估计不少人手机一震，心都跟着紧了 紧。毕竟纳指直接跌了3.56%，创下4月以来最大单日跌幅，这"黑色星期五"来得可一点不含糊。 其实早上打开行情软件时，盘面看得还挺清楚：不只是纳指，标普500跌了2.71%，道琼斯也跌了1.9%，等于三大指数集体"踩刹车"。更让人揪心的是连 带反应——原油跌超4%，眼看要摸到年内低点；比特币日内一度跌超10%，波动得让人眼晕；反倒是国债和黄金成了"避风港"，十年期美债收益率跌了 近8个基点，现货黄金直接站上4000美元/盎司，这避险情绪算是拉满了。 再说说大家常关注的热门股，昨晚算是"集体遇冷"。科技巨头里，英伟达跌了4.89%，亚马逊跌4.99%，特斯拉跌5.06%，最狠的是台积电，直接跌了 6.41%；更麻烦的是盘后还在跌，英伟达、特斯拉又跌超2%，新思科技那些甚至跌超3%，科技股这波调整确实有点疼。中概股也没躲过，纳斯达克中国 金龙指数跌了6.10%，蔚来跌10.05%，富途控股跌11.15%，持仓的朋友估计昨晚没少盯盘。 顺便提两个值得留意的小消息：一是特斯拉在欧洲推 ...

智通财经10月11日讯（编辑 史正丞）昨夜今晨，美股市场以一场突然爆发的暴跌结束了本周的交易。受到避险情绪传染，原油、有色、加密货币集体下 挫，贵金属短线拉升。 加密货币市场似乎也出现短线巨震引发的连锁爆仓。本周早些时候曾突破12.5万美元新高的比特币，日内跌幅一度超过12%。数据网站Coinglass显示，短短 一小时内有超过70亿美元的头寸被强平。 其他消息 【白宫启动政府停摆期大规模裁员】 白宫行政管理和预算办公室主任拉塞尔·沃特周五在社交平台上表示，联邦政府雇员裁减程序（RIFs）已正式启动。根据各联邦机构传出的消息，裁员通知 正席卷整个美国联邦政府，涉及美国卫生与公众服务部、教育部、商务部、财政部、国土安全部、住房与城市发展部以及环境保护署等。 【美联储主席遴选完成"11进5"】 最新消息显示，在一系列面试之后，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特已将美联储主席候选名单从11人缩减至5人。据悉。剩下的五名候选人分别为现任美联储监 管副主席米歇尔·鲍曼、美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特、前美联储理事凯文·沃什以及贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官 里克·里德。 根据统计，美国标普500指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent unexpected appreciation of the US dollar has caught the foreign exchange market off guard, with the dollar index rising significantly amid global financial uncertainty [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - The dollar index has shown strong momentum, reaching a nine-week high and approaching the 100 mark, with a peak of 99.47 on October 10 [3]. - This performance marks a reversal from the earlier trend in 2023, where the dollar index had declined over 10% in the first three quarters, making "shorting the dollar" a favored strategy among traders [3]. - The recent strength of the dollar is attributed more to the weakness of other currencies, particularly the euro, pound, and yen, rather than a robust US economic fundamental [3][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - The global uncertainty has heightened risk aversion, supporting the dollar's rise, similar to the behavior of gold during times of crisis [4]. - Analysts express caution regarding the long-term outlook for the dollar, indicating that its future performance will depend on the resolution of the US government shutdown and upcoming economic data [5]. - Potential risks include prolonged government shutdown impacts on the economy, the influence of Trump's interventions on Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitical factors affecting market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Renminbi Performance - Contrary to the strengthening dollar, the renminbi has appreciated against the dollar, with offshore renminbi rising over 200 points from October 9 to 10 [6][7]. - Factors contributing to this trend include the announcement of new policy financial tools to support growth and a strong domestic stock market attracting foreign investment [7]. - The overall market expectation for the renminbi remains stable, with a potential for continued appreciation against the dollar, suggesting a "dual bull" scenario for both the renminbi and the dollar index [7].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Impact - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction continues to dominate global markets, with a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and 82% in December according to CME FedWatch [1] - Recent meeting minutes indicate that most officials acknowledge inflation risks but agree on a moderate policy easing within the year to address economic slowdown and fiscal uncertainty [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its second week, delaying the release of economic data and increasing market reliance on central bank statements and market indicators [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors and Gold Prices - A temporary easing of safe-haven demand occurred following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, leading to some funds exiting the gold market [1] - However, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has reignited global risk aversion, causing fluctuations in gold prices as investors switch between different risk events [1] - Geopolitical uncertainty and changes in global liquidity remain significant variables supporting gold prices [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold prices have retreated from a historical high of $4059, currently hovering around $3950, with the RSI indicator indicating sustained buying momentum despite moving out of the overbought zone [2] - If gold can maintain above $3960, it will continue a high-level consolidation; a drop below $3900 could trigger a new round of corrections, with the next support level at $3819 [2] - A rebound above $4035 and a breakthrough of the $4060 resistance zone could lead to a target range of $4100 [2] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The dollar is experiencing a short-term pullback but remains strong in the medium term, with limited rebound potential for non-dollar currencies [4] - Oil prices are driven by OPEC+ production policies and inventory data, with short-term volatility risks increasing [5] - Gold prices are temporarily under pressure due to profit-taking and a decrease in safe-haven demand, but the medium-term bullish outlook remains intact, influenced by Federal Reserve policy signals and global political risks [5]

Core Insights - Investors are taking profits and reducing risk exposure, leading to a broad decline in emerging market assets, with gold prices retreating and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown further impacting market sentiment [1][4][7] Emerging Market Performance - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell by 0.2%, while the stock index dropped by 0.5%, indicating a potential weekly decline. Almost all Asian stock indices decreased, with Japan's stock market down by 1% [1][4] Gold Price Dynamics - The decline in gold prices has been a key factor in weakening emerging market sentiment. After reaching a high of $4000, profit-taking occurred, exacerbated by easing geopolitical tensions following ceasefire announcements, which reduced demand for safe-haven assets [3][4] U.S. Dollar Strength - Despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, the U.S. dollar remains strong and is expected to record its best weekly performance since November. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index saw a slight decline of 0.1% on Friday, but the overall trend for the week remains robust [8] Market Sentiment - Traditional safe-haven assets have failed to provide a buffer for emerging markets, intensifying the prevailing sentiment of "everything is falling." Investors are increasingly inclined to lower their risk exposure across the board [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic and international precious metal futures markets are experiencing a decline, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing economic uncertainties in the U.S. [1][3][4] Price Movements - As of October 10, domestic precious metal futures are all in the red, with SHFE gold at 901.06 CNY per gram, down 1.30%, and SHFE silver at 11,075.00 CNY per kilogram, down 1.20% [1] - Internationally, COMEX gold is priced at 3,984.70 CNY per ounce, down 0.16%, while COMEX silver is at 47.53 USD per ounce, down 0.36% [1] Market Analysis - The overnight market saw a decline in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures down 1.96% and SHFE gold down 1.17% [4] - The easing of tensions in the Middle East has led to a quick rise and subsequent fall in gold prices, shifting market focus towards the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4] - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown, with multiple failed funding proposals, creating uncertainty in economic data releases and complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being primarily based on real interest rates to being centered around central bank purchases, reflecting a trend towards decentralization and heightened demand for safe-haven assets [1] Macroeconomic Messages - In the context of high interest rates and global restructuring, the demand for gold is increasing, particularly in China, where the central bank has resumed gold purchases for ten consecutive months [1] - The passage of Trump's significant legislation may exacerbate the U.S. debt issue, leading to cracks in the dollar's monetary credibility and highlighting gold's de-dollarization attributes [1] - Geopolitical risks continue to drive market demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to short-term fluctuations in gold prices [1] Institutional Perspectives - The logic driving the current rise in gold prices remains intact, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and market sentiment being short-term influencing factors [1] - Recent U.S. labor market data shows unexpected weakness, with non-farm employment significantly below expectations and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in October are around 90%, with attention on upcoming non-farm payroll data [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Overseas silver reached a record high and then declined, leading to a pull - back in gold prices due to profit - taking. Although the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to the presence of risk - aversion sentiment and easing expectations, short - term profit - taking after a significant rise may cause gold prices to fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold has rapidly widened to - 8 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver: After overseas silver hit a record high and fell back, profit - taking drove silver prices down as silver reached an important target level. The premium of Shanghai silver has significantly converged to - 175 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment is cautious. The upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged, but there may be short - term fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: Overseas silver reached a record high and then declined, causing gold prices to fall due to profit - taking. The three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower, and the three major European stock indexes showed mixed performance. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield increasing by 1.55 basis points to 4.136%. The US dollar index rose 0.55% to 99.40, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.1380. COMEX gold futures fell 1.95% to $3991.10 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Overseas silver reached a record high and then declined. The three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower, and the three major European stock indexes showed mixed performance. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield increasing by 1.55 basis points to 4.136%. The US dollar index rose 0.55% to 99.40, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.1380. COMEX silver futures fell 2.73% to $47.66 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis of gold is - 3.39, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. Gold futures warehouse receipts are 70,728 kilograms, remaining unchanged, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [5]. - Silver: The basis of silver is - 40, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1,186,846 kilograms, a daily decrease of 5,436 kilograms, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long positions are increasing, which is bullish [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Data that may be released: China's aggregate financing to the real economy from January to September and new RMB loans. - Speeches and events: At 09:40, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (a 2027 FOMC voter) will discuss the US economy and science and technology at an event with Silicon Valley executives; the EU finance ministers will hold a meeting (time to be determined); at 15:40, European Central Bank Governing Council member Escriva will speak; at 17:00, the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize will be announced; at 20:30, Canada's employment report for September (including employment numbers and unemployment rate) will be released; at 21:45, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (a 2025 FOMC voter) will give an opening speech and host a discussion at a community bankers' seminar; at 22:00, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October in the US will be released; at 01:00 the next day, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (a 2025 FOMC voter) will participate in a fireside chat related to the US economy and FOMC monetary policy; at 02:00 the next day, the US government budget for September will be released [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is - 3.39, with the spot at a discount to the futures; warehouse receipts are 70,728 kilograms, remaining unchanged [5]. - Silver: The basis is - 40, with the spot at a discount to the futures; Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1,186,846 kilograms, a daily decrease of 5,436 kilograms [6]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position is long, and the main long positions are decreasing [5]. - Silver: The main net position is long, and the main long positions are increasing [6].

在黄金价格9日创历史新高并突破4000美元/盎司的背景下，汇丰银行认为，金价的上涨将为中国黄金生产商带来巨大的盈利弹性。 追风交易台消息，汇丰在8日的研报中认为，黄金价格每变动1%，纯金矿股的盈利将相应变动约2%。这一倍数效应意味着在黄金牛市中，黄金生 产商的股价潜在涨幅将显著超越金价本身的涨幅。基于这一预期，汇丰全面上调了紫金矿业、山东黄金和招金矿业的目标价。 汇丰首席贵金属分析师指出，地缘政治风险、经济政策不确定性、美联储独立性担忧以及美元走软构成了黄金上涨的核心驱动力。特别值得关注 的是，美国政府关门危机和对美联储独立性的质疑进一步推高了避险情绪。 汇丰预计金价将在2025年剩余时间内保持3700-4050美元/盎司的宽幅震荡区间，2026年更是扩大至3600-4400美元/盎司，峰值有望在2026年上半年 出现。截至发稿，现货黄金价格回落至3968美元/盎司。 金价展望：多重利好支撑，短期目标4000美元 在全球多重风险因素叠加下，黄金价格突破每盎司4000美元的历史性关口，年内涨幅已达54%。 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 以上精彩内容来自追风交易台。 更详细的解读，包括实时解读 ...

| | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0013700 | | | 2025/10/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 格龈踪 | 2025/10/9 | 4028. 99 | 48. 97 | 4048. 10 | 48. 30 | 914. 32 | 11169.00 | 910. 93 | 11129.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据来源: | 2025/9/30 | 3855. 84 | 46. 81 | ...