Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury market is expected to show positive trends by the end of the year, driven by historical seasonal patterns rather than Federal Reserve policy expectations [1] - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased significantly from approximately 90% to 72% following comments from Fed Chair Powell [1] - Historical data indicates that U.S. Treasury prices peak in late autumn and reach their lowest point in spring, which may mitigate investor disappointment regarding Fed policy [1][2] Seasonal Patterns - The seasonal characteristics of the U.S. Treasury market originated in the early 1970s when the Treasury began selling bonds through public auctions [2] - A study published in 2015 noted that prior to the market pricing mechanism, Treasury yields showed little seasonal variation, but the introduction of a predictable auction schedule established a stable seasonal pattern [2] - December's average return for U.S. Treasuries is generally modest, but when combined with November's returns, it surpasses the performance of any other two-month combination throughout the year [2] Risk Aversion Mechanism - Researchers analyzed various hypotheses to explain the seasonal patterns in Treasury yields, ultimately identifying seasonal changes in investor risk aversion as the primary driver [3] - The study concluded that as investor sentiment declines in the autumn, risk aversion increases, leading to higher Treasury prices and thus higher actual yields during this period [4] - Conversely, as investor sentiment improves in the spring, risk aversion decreases, resulting in lower Treasury prices and lower actual yields [4]

记者丨赖镇桃 编辑丨和佳 经历了"红色十月"后，比特币价格再次跌破关键支撑位。 11月5日周三凌晨，比特币价格直线下行，一度下探至99008美元/枚，是6月末以来首次跌破10万美元大关。截至23时左右，比特币跌幅收窄。 | BTC | 103263 | -1.01% | | --- | --- | --- | | $701.8亿 +2.9% | | | | ETH | 3350 | -5.6% | | $392.1亿 -8.6% | | | | SOL | 158.9 | -3.34% | | $74.7亿 -10.2% | | | | XRP | 2.267 | -1.62% | | $33.8亿 -4.9% | | | | HYPE | 41.21 | +5.97% | | $17.5亿 +3.8% | | | | BNB | 958.2 | -0.38% | | $15.1亿 -0.0% | | | 短短一个月内，比特币的价格已经重挫超18%，单枚比特币的价格跌超22400美元。 抛售的压力依然高企。Coinbase数据显示，比特币的总市值月内已经缩水超2.62%，相当于一个月内蒸发了约600亿美元的市 ...

美股"黑色星期二"蔓延全球，对科技股估值过高的担忧削弱了市场风险偏好，投资者对持续已久的人工智能驱动涨势踩下刹车，全球股市下跌， 避险情绪提振黄金、美债。 周三，美国股指期货延续跌势，欧股低开低走，亚洲股市遭遇七个月来最剧烈抛售，日韩股市收跌。韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）下跌2.9%，收 于4004.42点，创下三个月来最大单日跌幅。美元指数维持在近三个月高位水平，美债、黄金上涨，加密货币回升。 以下为主要资产走势： 标普500期货下跌0.18%，纳斯达克100指数期货下跌0.34%，道琼斯期货涨0.07%，延续了周二美股的弱势表现。 英国富时指数下跌0.15%，德国DAX指数开盘下跌0.67%，法国CAC 40指数下跌0.25%。 韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）下跌2.9%，收于4004.42点，创下三个月来最大单日跌幅，日内一度下跌6%；日本日经指数收跌2.5%。 美元指数短线小幅拉升，现报100.23。 债券市场显示避险需求增加，美国10年期国债收益率短线拉升，现报4.084%。 商品市场中，WTI原油上涨0.74%至每桶61.01美元。 现货黄金短线走低约5美元，现报3964.83美元/盎司。 比特 ...

2025年金店外头的人流几乎没有断过，每家店橱窗里最闪耀的首饰和条块下手的手，总是那么多。英国 那边的黄金定价一年涨了不少，全球的货币玩家和普通百姓仿佛都被某种力量推着冲进金市。这样的现 象怎么就火了？背后又有哪些门道？ 文案|编辑：凤梨 先从大家最关心的钱袋子说起。现在的利息一年比一年低，存在银行的钱顶不上超市里涨的物价，辛苦 存的钱迟早会缩水。市场不景气，炒股又怕被套，买房的话首付和贷款压得人喘不上气，不少人只好把 盼头放到了黄金身上。 存金条、戴首饰，还是投资黄金ETF，不少人觉得这些比盯利率、看股市更稳妥。在价钱上看，黄金还 真没让人失望，这种安全感在乱世里就更值钱了。 只要某地局势不稳，金价几乎立刻反应，比什么还灵敏。不光百姓存黄金压心，国家也是出于备战备荒 的需要才在国际市场上囤金，一旦世界风云不稳，这就是可以救急的东西。 当然，央行们抢黄金也不是瞎忙活。美国利用美元做自己的底牌，有时动辄冻结别国资产，这让不少国 家出来想新路子。买黄金成了不少国家的共识，因为它不归谁掌控，不用担心和谁闹掰了存款被冻结。 现在俄罗斯、波兰、还有中国的央行都在不断加仓黄金，大家都怕继续押注美元会出大事。对不少发展 中 ...

黄金在避险情绪的支持下从3930美元低点反弹，稳步上升至3970美元附近。尽管黄金未能突破4000美元 关口，但在全球股市大跌和地缘政治紧张的背景下，黄金吸引了逢低买盘。全球股市因对人工智能泡沫 的担忧大幅下跌，进一步促使避险资金流入黄金。然而，由于美联储的鹰派立场以及市场对12月降息预 期的降温，黄金的上涨空间受到压制。目前黄金价格受制于3970美元附近的区间，短期涨幅仍然受美元 强势和市场谨慎情绪的抑制。尽管如此，地缘政治风险和美国政府停摆的背景下，黄金依旧拥有一定支 撑。 美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）将于北京时间周三21:15公布10月就业变化报告。市场预期，美国私营 部门新增就业岗位为2.4万个，扭转9月的3.2万减少数据。由于政府停摆导致JOLTS和非农数据的推迟发 布，ADP数据的意义更加突出。分析人士认为，如果就业数据好于预期，将加强鲍威尔的鹰派言论，为 美元提供进一步支撑；如果数据疲软，市场可能会重新押注美联储12月降息。 中国财政部宣布，自11月10日起将取消部分美国产农产品关税，并暂停加征24%关税，为期一年。这一 消息被解读为中美贸易关系有望改善的积极信号。同时，美国总统特朗普透露，计 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices rebounded after experiencing the largest single-day drop in over a week, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid widespread market risk aversion [1] - As of the latest report, spot gold prices rose to approximately $3941.18 per ounce, while the dollar index remained stable after reaching its highest level since mid-May [2] - The Federal Reserve officials did not indicate support for further rate cuts in December, as they weigh the dual risks of inflation and a weak labor market [4] Group 1 - Gold prices have seen a cumulative increase of around 50% this year, despite a recent pullback following a historical high [1] - The recent price correction is attributed to concerns over high valuations and outflows from gold ETFs, with traders assessing whether the decline is nearing its end [1] - Factors contributing to the current price range of gold between $3800 and $4050 per ounce include uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cut outlook and concerns over Chinese retail demand for gold [1] Group 2 - The prices of silver remained stable, while palladium and platinum experienced declines [2] - Upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including St. Louis Fed President Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Mester, are expected to provide further insights into the Fed's stance [4]

Key Points by Commodity Gold - US government shutdown continues, but with Sino-US relations easing and the US potentially pausing tariff measures, risk aversion weakens. The rising US dollar index is negative for gold. Gold may experience high-level oscillations in the medium term. Monitor the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1] 纯碱 - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is stable at 1,269 yuan/ton. Weekly production is 757,600 tons, a 2.3% increase. Total inventory is 1.702 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 0.01%. The float glass industry has stable operation and decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with some plant shutdowns reducing supply. The 01 contract of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 1,200. It is recommended to wait and see or consider short - term long positions on dips [1] Iron Ore - From October 27th to November 2nd, global iron ore shipments decreased by 174,500 tons to 3.2138 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 166,700 tons to 2.7592 million tons. Supply is becoming more abundant in the near - term, while demand is weakening due to production cuts in Tangshan. There is a possibility of production resumption this week. Port inventory is still increasing, and steel mills' inventory has decreased significantly, with a potential for accelerated restocking. Ore prices are expected to decline further, and a short - selling strategy can be considered [3] Rebar - On November 4th, domestic steel prices continued to fall. In November, more steel mills plan to conduct maintenance and production cuts, and environmental restrictions are in place in the north. As the market enters the off - season, supply and demand are both expected to weaken. Raw material prices are under pressure, and steel mills are on the verge of profitability. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4] Manganese Silico - The national average capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 43.28%, a 0.09% increase from last week. Daily output increased by 655 tons to 29,830 tons. The cost of manganese ore may have limited upward potential. Demand for manganese silico is expected to weaken as steel production may decline in the future. Supply is expected to remain high, and inventory pressure persists. The price of manganese silico may not have strong upward momentum in the short term [5] Palm Oil - Last week, the narrowing price gap between soybean oil and palm oil led to increased purchases of palm oil, resulting in a decrease in inventory. As of the end of the 44th week of 2025, domestic palm oil inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 555,000 tons. The market expects an increase in palm oil inventory in Malaysia in October, which is negative for palm oil prices. Palm oil is expected to remain weak in the short term [6] Rapeseed Meal - As of November 1st, the weekly operating rate of domestic rapeseed processing enterprises increased by 0.49 percentage points to 1.47%. Weekly rapeseed crushing volume increased by 2,000 tons to 6,000 tons. There is an expectation of zero processing volume this week. Supply shortages reduce the risk of price decline. It is recommended to take long positions at low prices and monitor Sino - Canadian trade policies [6] Live Pigs - On November 4th, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.2% to 18.02 yuan/kg. The high - priced pork has low acceptance from consumers, and the number of second - fattening pigs has decreased. As enterprises resume normal slaughter, pig prices are expected to decline slowly in the short term. The LH2601 contract of live pigs shows a weak technical pattern, and farmers can consider hedging according to their slaughter plans [7] Short - term Treasury Bonds - On November 5th, the central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month reverse repurchase operation, which is an equal - amount roll - over. The loose money supply is positive for short - term bonds. The bond market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the medium term, but trading is becoming more difficult [7] Silver - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 70.1%. The rising US dollar index due to positive Sino - US trade relations is putting pressure on precious metals. Silver is expected to oscillate in the short term and rise in the long term, with limited downward space [8] Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol production enterprises in Northwest China decreased by 8,500 tons to 23,900 tons. The market price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,082 yuan/ton. Production capacity utilization increased by 1.09 percentage points to 86.73%. Port inventory decreased slightly, while enterprise inventory increased. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with resistance at 2,145. It is recommended to wait for further stabilization [9] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China's drawn polypropylene decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 6,536 yuan/ton. Capacity utilization increased by 0.61 percentage points to 78.62%. Commercial inventory decreased by 51,300 tons to 874,000 tons. Supply pressure has eased slightly, and downstream orders have improved slightly. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 6,570. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [10] Crude Oil - As of the week ending October 31, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 6.52 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. China and Russia agreed to cooperate in the standardization of the oil and gas industry. Crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure for the rest of the year and may ease slightly in the first quarter of next year [11] PX - This week, domestic PTA production increased by 44,800 tons to 1.4503 million tons. Capacity utilization increased by 2.40 percentage points to 78.38%. Social inventory decreased by 5,700 tons to 3.1356 million tons. The restart of previously shut - down PTA plants has increased supply, and the market is expected to have a slight inventory build - up. PX prices are under pressure, and the overall fundamentals of PTA are weak [11] Rubber - In Thailand, cup - lump prices decreased, while latex prices increased. From January to September, global natural rubber production increased by 2.3%, while consumption decreased by 1.5%. Indonesia's exports to China increased significantly. China's rubber inventory is at a low level, and raw material prices are expected to be firm. However, tire enterprises are facing shipment pressure, and some plan to reduce production in November. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with limited downward space [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - Due to heightened concerns about high valuations, the US stock market experienced a "Black Tuesday," leading to a decline in gold and silver prices. The risk appetite decreased, and the rebound strength of both gold and silver prices was weak. In the medium to long term, there was a slight shift to a bearish trend, with limited upside potential. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate, and the silver premium has expanded to 300 yuan/gram [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. However, the support for gold prices has significantly weakened recently [9]. - Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year US bond yield dropped 2.72 basis points to 4.083%, the US dollar index rose 0.34% to 100.21, the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 7.1352, and COMEX gold futures fell 1.81% to $3941.30 per ounce. The gold futures price was 915.58, the spot price was 912.55, with a basis of - 3.03, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts were 87,816 kilograms, unchanged. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the US stock market's "Black Tuesday" led to a decline in silver prices. COMEX silver futures fell 2.40% to $46.90 per ounce. The silver futures price was 11,238, the spot price was 11,219, with a basis of - 19, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts were 665,610 kilograms, with a daily increase of 6,759 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Today's Focus**: A series of events and data releases are scheduled, including the release of the Bank of Japan's September monetary policy meeting minutes, the New Zealand Reserve Bank's press conference on the semi - annual financial stability report, the potential attendance of US President Trump at a hearing for the US Supreme Court's key "tariff ruling," and various PMI data from China, the US, and Europe, as well as the US October ADP employment data [15]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The support for gold prices has weakened due to the improvement of factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and Sino - US tariff concerns. The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of turmoil, and the inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation. But currently, the support factors have changed [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there are both positive and negative factors affecting it. Positive factors include global turmoil, the existence of shadow Fed's significant interest rate cut expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to a resurgence of inflation, and the support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors. Negative factors include the increasing expectation of a halt to interest rate cuts, the Fed's internal divergence, the under - expected European fiscal expansion, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [13][14]. 4. Position Data - **Gold**: The net long position of the main gold holders decreased. For example, on November 4, 2025, the long position was 171,616, the short position was 69,501, and the net position was 102,115, showing a decrease compared to November 3, 2025 [31]. - **Silver**: The net long position of the main silver holders decreased. On November 4, 2025, the long position was 319,340, the short position was 252,370, and the net position was 66,970, also showing a decrease compared to November 3, 2025 [33]. - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position fluctuated and decreased, while the silver ETF position fluctuated and increased and remained higher than the same period in the past two years [36][39]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, the Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts stopped falling with silver being transferred from New York to London [40][41][43].

Group 1 - Bitcoin price fell below $100,000 for the first time since June 23, with a decline of over 18% in the past month [1] - Ethereum also experienced a nearly 10% drop on November 4, closing at $3,296, influenced by Bitcoin's price movements [3] - A total of 342,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours due to Bitcoin's decline, with liquidation amounts exceeding $1.3 billion, predominantly affecting long positions [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts attribute Bitcoin's price drop to rising risk aversion among global investors, alongside concerns over a potential bubble in tech stocks and inflation pressures limiting the Federal Reserve's policy easing [4] - The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has entered the "extreme fear" zone, indicating heightened market anxiety [4] - Despite the market turmoil, some investors remain optimistic, with Strategy Company increasing its Bitcoin holdings by 397 coins, costing approximately $45.6 million [6]

Group 1 - The current trading price of gold futures is around 914.04 CNY per gram, with a decline of 0.67% from previous levels [1] - The highest price reached was 925.86 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 913.78 CNY per gram, indicating a bearish short-term trend for gold futures [1] - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 948 CNY per gram and 1020 CNY per gram, while important support levels are between 894 CNY per gram and 950 CNY per gram [4] Group 2 - A meeting of foreign ministers from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and five other countries took place in Istanbul, where they agreed to uphold the ceasefire agreement in Gaza and promote a lasting peace process based on a "two-state solution" [3] - The Turkish Foreign Minister, Fidan, stated that the participating countries share a unified stance on maintaining the ceasefire and preventing further escalation of the situation [3] - Despite the agreement, Israel continues to violate the ceasefire and obstruct humanitarian aid from entering the Gaza Strip [3]