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化工行业周报20250602:国际油价、丙烯酸价格下跌,氯虫苯甲酰胺行业产能受损
Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices. Key areas to focus on in June include safety regulation policies, supply chain changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush," the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [1][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of June 1, the average price tracking 100 chemical products showed that 23 products increased in price, 45 decreased, and 32 remained stable. The month-on-month average price changes were 26.73% up, 63.00% down, and 10.27% stable. The products with the highest weekly price increases included hydrochloric acid (up 31% in the Yangtze River Delta) and TDI, while those with the largest decreases included soft foam polyether and liquid chlorine [9][32] Oil and Gas Market - International oil prices have decreased, with WTI crude futures closing at $60.79 per barrel (down 1.20%) and Brent crude at $63.90 per barrel (down 1.36%). The U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.47 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year. Gasoline and distillate demand in the U.S. has increased, with total refined oil demand averaging 19.89 million barrels per day, down 0.2% year-on-year [9][10] Chlorantraniliprole Industry - The chlorantraniliprole industry has experienced capacity damage, with the largest producer, Youdao Chemical, having a production capacity of 11,000 tons. The market supply has significantly reduced, and current inventory levels are low due to previous market conditions. The price for chlorantraniliprole is expected to rise to 250,000-280,000 yuan per ton in the short term [9][10] Acrylic Acid Market - The price of acrylic acid has decreased, with the average market price at 7,050 yuan per ton, down 8.44% from the previous week. Supply has increased due to the resumption of production in Shandong, while downstream demand remains cautious [9][10] Investment Recommendations - As of June 1, the SW basic chemical sector's P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 21.66, at the 58.33% historical percentile. The oil and petrochemical sector's P/E ratio is 10.81, at the 13.47% historical percentile. Key investment themes include the sustained high prices of crude oil, rapid development in downstream industries, and the potential for recovery in demand due to policy support [10][11]
先进封装,成为主角
半导体行业观察· 2025-06-03 01:26
先进封装成为下1个技术帝国的边疆要塞,不是偶然,而是3股力道推动出来的必然结果。 第1股力道是算力井喷,但制程进展放缓,芯片必须被切割、堆叠、重组。陆行之表示,你能做到 5奈米,不代表你能塞进20倍算力,光罩极限挡住了芯片的面积,只有Chiplet 能绕过这道墙, Ncidia Blackwell 就是这样诞生的。 第2股力道则是应用百变,芯片不再单一适配,系统设计走向模组化。陆行之说,1种芯片搞定所 有应用的时代已经结束,AI训练、自驾决策、边缘运算、AR装置……每1个应用都需要不同组合 的矽,先进封装加Chiplet,就是设计弹性与效率的平衡解答。 如果您希望可以时常见面,欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源:内容来自 自由时报 。 半导体的改变正在加速,先进封装,不再是边角料。知名分析师陆行之表示,棋盘中央如果说先进 制程是矽时代的权力中枢,那么先进封装,正在成为下1个技术帝国的边疆要塞。 陆行之在脸书上贴文指出,10年前,这条路线曾被误解,甚至被忽视,但10年后的今天,它已悄 悄从「非主流的Plan B」变成「主流赛道的Plan A」。 第3股力道则是资料搬运成本飙升,能耗变成第1瓶颈。在AI 芯片里,搬资料的耗能 ...
群创投入FOPLP技术 洪进扬:今年一定会有具体成果
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-01 22:18
Core Viewpoint - The ongoing AI boom is driving advancements in semiconductor packaging technologies, particularly Fan-out Panel Level Packaging (FOPLP), which is expected to enhance chip efficiency and market competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Advanced Packaging Technologies - Advanced packaging integrates different chips to improve performance, reduce space, and lower power consumption, with TSMC's CoWoS technology being a notable example [1]. - FOPLP technology utilizes square substrates for IC packaging, significantly increasing usable area compared to traditional round wafers, achieving a utilization rate of 95% [1]. - The development of mid-to-high-end semiconductor packaging using 3.5 generation FOPLP glass substrates can provide an area seven times larger than that of a 12-inch glass wafer [1]. Group 2: Industry Collaboration and Development - The Ministry of Economic Affairs, in collaboration with companies like Innolux and the Industrial Technology Research Institute, has launched initiatives to promote FOPLP technology and enhance the value of existing panel production lines [1][2]. - Despite challenges in production technology, such as panel warping and yield issues, ongoing collaboration aims to reduce defects and improve manufacturing processes [2]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Innolux is not competing directly with established semiconductor manufacturers but is leveraging its existing panel production capabilities to transition into advanced packaging [2][3]. - The company plans to utilize its larger glass substrates to meet the increasing demand for IC packaging, with a focus on chip-first solutions to gain market recognition [3]. - The company is committed to continuous improvement in technology and talent development in the FOPLP sector, with expectations for tangible results and shipments this year [3]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Innovations - The company is exploring various advanced technologies, including chip last and redistribution layer (RDL) techniques, while maintaining a focus on validating these technologies rather than solely on mass production [4].
中国大陆封测,强势崛起
半导体行业观察· 2025-06-01 00:46
来源:内容来自Source:工商时报 。 如果您希望可以时常见面,欢迎标星收藏哦~ 全球封测产业(OSAT)面临技术升级和产业重组双重挑战,从营收来看,日月光(3711)控股、 Amkor去年维持领先,值得关注的是,长电科技和天水华天等中国大陆封测厂去年营收皆呈双位数 成长,对既有市场构成强大挑战,压力持续到今年。 法人看好,半导体制造链正迎来新一轮扩张趋势,AI驱动先进制程与先进封装需求,同时传统应 用市场逐步复苏,也为产业带来多元化发展机会。 因应陆系封测业者快速崛起,日月光投控、京元电、力成、矽格等,积极强化制程技术量能,包括 异质整合、晶圆级封装、晶圆堆叠、先进测试设备导入,以及AI与边缘运算对高频率、高密度封 装的迫切需求,都成为台湾业者主攻范畴。 业界指出,封装测试技术优劣影响晶片效能与成本。日月光半导体日前推出具备硅通孔(TSV)的 扇出型基板上晶片桥接技术,推动AI技术发展。 京元电规划在台湾以外地区建立生产基地,分散供应链据点,将审慎评估半导体上下游和同业策略 合作机会,以及转投资全球半导体产业,延伸公司触角。 力成持续开发先进封装技术如2.5D及3D IC封装,公司说明,FOPLP技术自2 ...
封装巨头抢攻FOPLP市场
半导体行业观察· 2025-05-31 02:21
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advancements and future potential of Fan-Out Panel Level Packaging (FOPLP) technology in the semiconductor industry, highlighting the strategic moves by major players like ASE Technology and Powertech Technology to enhance their operational contributions starting next year [4][6]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The global semiconductor industry is experiencing growth driven by emerging applications such as AI, high-performance computing (HPC), 5G, and automotive electronics, which are pushing advanced packaging technologies to the forefront [4]. - FOPLP technology is gaining traction due to its high efficiency, low cost, and high yield, making it a key solution for next-generation packaging [4]. Group 2: Company Developments - ASE Technology has been developing FOPLP for over ten years and plans to begin trial production by the end of this year, with a gradual increase in operational contributions starting next year [4]. - Powertech Technology has already started small-scale shipments of FOPLP and is validating high-end products for significant clients, indicating a positive outlook for future operational contributions [6]. Group 3: Technical Specifications - ASE Technology has progressed from a 300x300mm specification to a 600x600mm specification for FOPLP, with expectations that if the yield meets projections, it will become the mainstream specification [5]. - Powertech Technology has developed a packaging solution for a high-end system-on-chip (SoC) using a 2nm process, with a total packaging cost reaching $25,000, showcasing the high value of advanced packaging designs [6].
英诺激光(301021):受益WLG光学创新与先进封装,激光领军企业打开长足发展空间
Great Wall Securities· 2025-05-29 11:49
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is a leading domestic solid-state laser manufacturer, expanding its product spectrum to unlock significant growth potential [10]. - The demand for laser micro-machining is driven by WLG optical innovations and advanced packaging, with sustained high growth in niche markets [2]. - The supply side is characterized by a high-barrier market structure, with accelerated domestic substitution processes [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory from 368 million yuan in 2023 to 903 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.9% [1]. - The net profit is expected to turn from a loss of 4 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 131 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a significant recovery [1]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from -0.5% in 2023 to 10.6% in 2027 [1]. Demand Side Analysis - The solid-state laser market is experiencing continuous high growth due to its applications in precision micro-machining, particularly in the semiconductor sector [2]. - WLG technology is a critical innovation in the optical field, enhancing laser processing demand in consumer electronics and advanced packaging [2]. - The semiconductor capital expenditure is expected to rise, driven by AI demand, positioning advanced packaging as a new engine for laser processing demand [2]. Supply Side Analysis - The domestic laser industry is evolving towards high power, high precision, and intelligent manufacturing, with solid-state lasers playing a crucial role in micro-machining [3]. - The domestic supply chain is growing, accelerating the process of localization and substitution in the laser market [3]. Profitability Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 51 million yuan, 80 million yuan, and 131 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.34 yuan, 0.52 yuan, and 0.86 yuan [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 86.5x in 2025 to 34.0x in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [1].
2025年中国先进封装设备行业科技自立,打造国产高端封装新时代
Tou Bao Yan Jiu Yuan· 2025-05-28 12:22
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the advanced packaging equipment industry. Core Insights - The advanced packaging technology aims to enhance chip performance, increase functional integration, reduce product size, and improve thermal management capabilities, driven by the demand for high-performance electronic products. The key to achieving these advanced packaging technologies lies in advanced packaging equipment [2]. - The future of the IC packaging equipment market is expected to grow significantly as advanced packaging becomes a core and cost-effective path to surpass Moore's Law, leading to an increase in the sales proportion of packaging equipment [5][26]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Packaging Equipment Industry Overview - Traditional packaging focuses on low cost and simple structures, while advanced packaging meets the demands of high-performance computing, 5G, and AI through high-density interconnects and heterogeneous integration [16]. - The global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are projected to grow from $106.3 billion in 2023 to $117.1 billion in 2024, with packaging equipment sales expected to increase significantly due to the rising complexity and demand for AI chips [21][22]. Required Semiconductor Equipment for Packaging Processes - Advanced packaging introduces new applications such as wafer thinning, RDL (Redistribution Layer) production, bump production, and TSV (Through-Silicon Via) production, necessitating both existing back-end packaging equipment and new front-end equipment [9][27]. - The traditional back-end packaging equipment must undergo technological upgrades to meet the requirements of smaller sizes, higher integration, and more complex structures [32]. Advanced Packaging Equipment Analysis - The report highlights the need for various traditional back-end devices, including thinning machines, dicing machines, bonding machines, and molding machines, which must adapt to advanced packaging requirements [35][45]. - The global thinning machine market is dominated by Japanese companies, with a concentration ratio of approximately 85%, while domestic companies are also emerging in this space [40][44]. Traditional Back-End Equipment Upgrades and Manufacturers - Traditional back-end packaging equipment requires upgrades in precision, material compatibility, process control, and automation to meet the demands of advanced packaging technologies [32]. - Key domestic suppliers for thinning machines include Huahai Qingke, Jing Sheng Machinery, and China Electronics Technology Group, among others [32].
IBM要杀入先进封装市场
半导体行业观察· 2025-05-28 01:36
Core Viewpoint - IBM has formed a significant alliance with Deca Technologies in the semiconductor packaging sector, allowing IBM to enter the advanced fan-out wafer-level packaging (FOWLP) market [1][2]. Group 1: IBM and Deca Technologies Collaboration - IBM plans to establish a new high-volume production line at its existing packaging facility in Bromont, Quebec, to produce advanced packaging based on Deca's M series fan-out interconnect technology (MFIT) [1]. - The MFIT technology enables the integration of complex multi-chip packages, particularly for AI and memory-intensive computing applications [2][12]. - The collaboration aims to expand IBM's packaging capabilities and provide North American customers with new fan-out production options [2][9]. Group 2: Background on IBM's Semiconductor History - IBM has a long history in the semiconductor industry, dating back to its founding in 1911, and has made significant contributions, including the invention of DRAM in 1966 [4][5]. - The company entered the commercial semiconductor market in 1993, manufacturing and selling ASICs, processors, and other chips [5]. - In the 2010s, IBM's microelectronics division faced challenges, leading to the sale of its semiconductor business to GlobalFoundries in 2014 [6][8]. Group 3: Current Semiconductor and Packaging Efforts - IBM continues to design processors and chips but relies on foundries for production, with a significant semiconductor R&D center in New York [8]. - The Bromont facility is the largest outsourced semiconductor packaging and testing (OSAT) facility in North America, providing flip-chip packaging and testing services [8]. - IBM is also collaborating with Rapidus to develop 2nm processes based on IBM's nanosheet transistor technology [8]. Group 4: Fan-Out Wafer-Level Packaging (FOWLP) - FOWLP is an advanced packaging technology that integrates complex chips into a small package, enhancing chip performance [1][10]. - The technology gained prominence in 2016 when Apple used TSMC's fan-out packaging in its iPhone 7 [10]. - FOWLP allows for the integration of multiple chips and components, offering a compact solution with numerous I/O interfaces [10][12]. Group 5: Future Developments and Contracts - IBM and SkyWater are developing fan-out packaging capabilities based on Deca's technology, with SkyWater having secured a $120 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense [11]. - Deca is also advancing its M series technology, which includes the MFIT version, enabling high-density integration of memory and processors [12].
关键材料传缺货,先进封装,面临断供
半导体行业观察· 2025-05-27 01:25
如果您希望可以时常见面,欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源:内容来自经济日报 。 半导体业界流传日本化工巨头旭化成(Asahi KASEI)对客户发出的通知,提到因该公司产能无法 跟上市场需求,将对部分客户断供先进封装关键耗材感光型聚醯亚胺(PSPI),业界忧心恐导致 AI断链危机一触即发。 业界指出,目前没有任何材料能全面替代PSPI在所有先进封装制程中的性能,考量先进封装是AI 芯片生产关键技术,若缺少PSPI导致先进封装产能供给受限,不仅牵动台积电(2330)、日月光 投控、群创等业者先进封装业务接单,进而冲击全球AI产业发展。业界分析,旭化成是全球PSPI 数一数二关键供应商,以封装材料来说,旭化成和HD(杜邦与日立合资公司)居前两大,一旦供 货不足,牵动整个半导体生态。 根据业界人士转述,此次旭化成拟对部分客户断供其PIMEL系列感光材料供应,即PSPI相关产 品,主因AI高速发展,使得算力需求快速增长,对先进封装需求暴增,同步带动PSPI需求劲扬, 该公司产能无法及时跟上市场需求。 业界人士说,旭化成的PSPI材料,在半导体封装领域具有关键应用价值,并广获半导体指标厂采 用,主要用于元件表面保护层、凸块钝化层 ...
先进封装关键耗材断供?恐爆AI断链
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-05-26 23:26
半导体业界流传日本化工巨头旭化成(Asahi KASEI)对客户发出的通知,提到因该公司产能无法跟上 市场需求,将对部分客户断供先进封装关键耗材感光型聚醯亚胺(PSPI),业界忧心恐导致AI断链危 机一触即发。 先进封装爆红,三星、英特尔、日月光投控、群创等大厂也积极抢进,进一步消耗PSPI产能。随着旭化 成对部份客户断供,业界忧心AI断链危机一触即发。 对于相关消息,至昨(26)日截稿前,台积电未回应。业界分析,台积电是全球晶圆代工龙头,应会获 得旭化成优先供货,研判对台积电影响不大。不过,对正积极强化先进封装能量日月光投控而言,旭化 成PSPI供货不顺,可能会打乱原先集团布局规划。惟日月光投控对此不予回应。 日月光投控内部规划,目标2025年CoWoS先进封装月产可达1万片,力拚今年相关业绩倍增至10亿美元 以上。 业界人士说,旭化成的PSPI材料,在半导体封装领域具有关键应用价值,并广获半导体指标厂采用,主 要用于元件表面保护层、凸块钝化层及RDL绝缘层,在晶圆级封装(WLP)制程中,晶圆表面钝化层 及RDL重布线层介质制造需依赖光敏绝缘材料,由于PSPI的独特优点在于兼具光敏特性与绝缘性能,可 显著简 ...