本月的美联储议息会议将于当地时间7月30日结束。 目前，外界普遍预计，美联储政策制定者将连续第五次维持利率目标区间在4.25%~4.5%不变。截至发 稿，芝商所的FedWatch工具显示，7月会议不降息的概率为97.4%。 然而，几乎铁定不会降息的美联储可能正面临着32年来内部最分裂的时刻。面对通胀缓解与经济放缓的 交叉信号，美联储决策层罕见分裂为三派。 激进派代表克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）与米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）据称将在本次会 议中联手反对美联储现任主席鲍威尔的政策主张，主张立即降息。若此情形成真，这将是1993年以来首 次有两位理事在同场会议中反对主席政策方向。 但这场分裂不只是货币政策的路径分歧，更是一场制度信任与政治影响力的博弈。从特朗普贴脸施压联 储到提前释放潜在继任者信息，市场开始将9月会议视作美联储是否守住独立性的关键窗口。 美联储面临32年最分裂时刻？两名理事或联合投反对票 本周的美联储议息会议，将打破自1993年以来联储维持的制度性共识。 据媒体报道，两位现任理事——克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）与米歇尔·鲍曼（ ...

欧洲主要股指收盘小幅上涨，德国DAX指数涨0.23%至24272.89点，法国CAC40指数涨0.06%至7861.96 点，英国富时100指数涨0.01%至9136.94点。 盘面上，大型科技股多数收跌，英伟达涨超2%，创历史新高，博通涨超1%，苹果跌超1%。贵金属、金 属铜概念跌幅居前，自由港麦克莫兰跌超9%，美国黄金公司跌超7%，南方铜业跌超6%，美洲白银公司 跌超5%，科尔黛伦矿业跌超4%，泛美白银跌超3%。 黄金股全线收跌，皇家黄金跌0.37%，巴里克黄金跌1.84%，伊格尔矿业跌2.34%，纽蒙特矿业跌 2.58%，弗兰科-内华达跌2.73%，金罗斯黄金跌3.69%，盎格鲁黄金跌5.24%。 美东时间周三(30日)，美股三大股指尾盘跳水后小幅反弹，截至收盘，道指跌0.38%，标普500指数跌 0.12%，纳指涨0.15%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.82%。热门中概股方面，亚玛芬体育涨1.33%，哔哩哔哩跌0.74%，网易跌 0.92%，百度集团跌0.99%，好未来跌1.03%，京东集团跌1.44%，华住集团跌1.62%，阿里巴巴跌 1.69%，贝壳跌1.87%，百济神州跌1.89%，小鹏汽车跌1 ...

金十数据7月30日讯，加拿大央行行长麦克莱姆在新闻发布会上多次重申，央行官员随时准备在必要时 支持经济，但不会允许"关税问题变成通胀问题"。麦克勒姆表示，加拿大央行已准备好对新信息做出反 应。他表示："经济有所减弱，但并没有大幅减弱。"加拿大央行利率政策决定的新亮点是，如果经济状 况进一步走弱，而通胀压力仍在可控范围内，加拿大央行准备再次降息。 只要通胀可控 加央行行长准备放松政策以支持经济 ...

加拿大央行行长Macklem：核心通胀偏高，使得央行暂停利率政策行动。 ...

山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年07月30日16时30分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏弱，沪金主力收涨0.42%，沪银主力收平。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议分批达成，避险需求继续回落；美国经济 滞涨风险增加，就业通胀强劲压制降息预期。②避险属性方面，中美"建设性会谈"后暂时维持关税休战，未宣布重大突破。美国 与欧盟达成协议避免了贸易战，将征收15%关税。③货币属性方面，美联储本月决议预计将维持利率不变，因经济数据好坏参半。 美国6月商品贸易逆差降至近两年来最低，或助推第二季GDP大幅反弹。欧洲央行维持利率不变，乐观经济预测引发降息结束猜测 。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌回50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益震荡偏强；④商品属性方面， CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏弱利多国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。⑥晚间有美国 ADP、GDP等重磅数据及凌晨美联储决议，数据超预期概率较大，建议提前做好风险管理。 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | ...

在现货市场方面，摩根大通截至7月28日当周的客户调查发现，多头减少，而空头仓位创下自6月2日以来的最高;中性仓位保持不变。整体净多头仓位为5月 以来最低。 智通财经APP获悉，在市场正准备迎接美联储预计将揭示未来几个月降息力度的会议之际，债券交易员过去一周削减了对美国国债的押注。摩根大通的每周 美国国债客户调查显示，在周三美联储会议之前，净多头头寸降至两个月来的最低水平，显示投资者的看涨情绪有所减弱。尽管市场暗示的美联储政策预期 保持稳定，互换合约的价格显示，美联储年底前的降息幅度将略低于0.5个百分点，且降息最早可能从9月份开始。 这一变化出现在诸多相互冲突的因素令美联储中期政策前景变得不明朗之际。美联储主席鲍威尔正面临来自美国总统特朗普要求其降息的压力，而本周他可 能还会遭遇其他美联储官员的异议。 与此同时，美国经济在特朗普贸易战压力下展现出韧性，这也支撑了对美国国债的看空观点，即由于利率可能在更长时间内维持高位，美国国债价格将继续 承压。最近几天美国与欧盟、日本达成的协议缓解了部分不确定性，也增强了美联储维持较高借贷成本的理由。 Insight Investment Management北美固定收益主管 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market declined on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulling back from historical highs as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy statement and reacted to disappointing earnings reports from some companies [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 204.57 points to 44,632.99, a decrease of 0.46%; the S&P 500 dropped 18.91 points to 6,370.86, down 0.30%; and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 80.29 points to 21,098.29, a decline of 0.38% [1] Company Earnings - UnitedHealth reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.08, below the market expectation of $4.59, and a 40% year-over-year decline. The company lowered its full-year EPS guidance to at least $16, below the expected $20.40, and indicated it may take until 2026 to return to profit growth, leading to a 7.5% drop in its stock price [2][3] - Boeing's stock fell by 4.4% despite reporting Q2 revenue of $22.75 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $21.68 billion. However, the company reported a core EPS loss of $1.24, raising investor concerns about its outlook [3] - Merck's stock declined by 1.7% after reporting Q2 sales of $15.81 billion, slightly above expectations, but with adjusted EPS of $2.13, down from the previous year. The company plans to continue suspending exports of its HPV vaccine to China and aims to save $3 billion through layoffs [3] - United Parcel Service (UPS) saw its stock plummet by 10.6% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.55, slightly below the expected $1.56. The lack of full-year revenue and profit margin guidance raised concerns about its profitability amid global trade uncertainties, contributing to a 2.3% drop in the Dow Jones Transportation Index, marking its largest single-day decline in two months [3] - Procter & Gamble's stock fell by 0.3%, reporting Q4 net sales of $20.89 billion and core EPS of $1.48, both slightly above expectations. The company projected core EPS growth of 0%-4% for FY2026, below the market's expectation of around 7% [3] - Novo Nordisk's stock plummeted approximately 22% to $53.94, a three-year low, after lowering its sales and profit forecasts for FY2025, citing poor sales performance of its weight loss drug Wegovy [4] Market Sentiment and Economic Data - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Meta Platforms down 2.46%, Tesla down 1.35%, Apple down 1.3%, Amazon down 0.76%, Nvidia down 0.70%, while Microsoft slightly increased by 0.01% and Google A rose by 1.65% [4] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.35%, with notable declines in stocks such as Li Auto down over 6%, JD.com down over 3%, and Baidu down nearly 3% [5] - Economic data indicated a narrowing of the US trade deficit to $86 billion in June, a decrease of 10.8%, with imports down 4.2% and exports slightly down by 0.6% [5] - Job openings in the US fell to 7.44 million in June, below the expected 7.5 million, but remained stable over the past year, indicating robust labor demand [5] - Consumer confidence in the US improved in July, with the Conference Board's confidence index rising to 97.2, slightly above expectations [5] Upcoming Events - Investors are focused on the upcoming non-farm payroll report to be released on Friday, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates during its Wednesday meeting [6]

来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin 美联储将于今日晚些时候开始为期两天的政策会议。尽管美联储预计将在周三维持利率不变，但交易员 将密切分析政策制定者的言论，以判断未来行动的时机。 与此同时，印度准备迎接美国对部分出口产品加征关税，税率可能高达25%，因为它选择在华盛顿设定 的最后期限前坚持做出新的贸易让步。 其他方面，美国国债在发行了440亿美元的七年期国债后，继续走高。在债务发行计划公布前，长期债 券领涨，这可能为美国计划如何控制这些期限债券的收益率提供线索。美元表现优于大多数发达国家货 币。 道指主要成分股联合健康集团和波音的季度业绩未能给投资者留下深刻印象。联合包裹服务公司公布第 二季度利润低于预期，成为特朗普总统全面征收关税的最新受害者。 科技巨头Meta、微软、亚马逊和苹果将于本周晚些时候公布财报，这可能会在未来几天引领华尔街的 走势。 经济消息方面，7月份消费者信心指数升至97.2，高于预期。6月份，美国职位空缺和招聘人数有所下 降，这表明劳动力市场活动进一步放缓。 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内 容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请 ...

【行情回顾】 周二（7月29日），周一，美元指数大幅上扬，盘中突破98关口后持续走高，最终收涨1%，报98.633。 受累于美元走强和风险情绪回温，现货黄金连跌四日，美盘短线跳水，一度逼近3300美元大关，随后有 所反弹，最终收跌0.68%，收报3314.63美元/盎司；现货白银收平，报38.17美元/盎司。 【要闻汇总】 在8月1日，美国相关贸易协定即将到期。当前，美国已同部分国家达成了协议，在此背景下，黄金价格 承受着显著压力。现阶段市场的核心焦点依然聚焦于中美贸易谈判的进展态势。 随着全球贸易乐观情绪的上升，尤其是美国和欧盟贸易协定的达成，投资者正将注意力转向风险资产， 远离白银等传统避险资产。 【交易思路】 国际黄金：下方关注3300美元或3270美元附近支撑；上方关注3324美元或3336美元附近阻力； 现货白银：下方关注37.85美元或37.50美元支撑；上方关注38.35美元或38.50美元阻力。 此外，本周金融市场还将迎来重磅事件——美联储利率决议以及非农就业数据公布。就利率决议而言， 市场普遍预估利率将维持不变。然而，特朗普却明确表态，认为美联储本周应当实施降息举措。一旦出 现意外降息的情况 ...

Group 1 - Asian stock markets have declined for the third consecutive day, with Vietnam's VN Index dropping 4% as optimism from recent trade agreements fades [1][5] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell by 0.8%, while the US dollar index rose by 0.3%, reaching its highest level since late June [1][5] - Investors are shifting focus to key economic indicators as the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming policy meeting [1][6] Group 2 - The EU-US trade agreement has sparked controversy, with critics arguing it poses risks to the European automotive industry and competitiveness [2] - The euro has depreciated by 0.3% against the dollar, reaching its lowest level in five weeks, reflecting market skepticism about the trade deal [2][5] - Market reactions to the trade agreement have become more rational, with investors prioritizing hard data to assess economic and policy outlooks [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision is a key focus for the market, with significant economic data expected to be released this week [6] - Analysts predict that the data will indicate a rebound in economic activity for the second quarter, influencing short-term policy decisions [6] - Gold prices are projected to rise significantly, potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce by the end of next year, driven by the Fed's rate cuts and increasing global gold reserves [6]