Group 1 - The defense and aerospace equipment industry is benefiting from industrial upgrades and the trend of self-sufficiency, with domestic equipment localization being the foundation for the industry's rise [1] - On the supply side, sub-sectors like shipbuilding and nuclear power equipment maintain stable prosperity due to inventory updates and counter-cyclical adjustments [1] - On the demand side, emerging fields such as humanoid robots and gas turbines are achieving breakthroughs, indicating long-term growth potential [1] Group 2 - The engineering machinery sub-sector is accelerating its export capabilities due to global competitiveness [1] - The overall valuation level of the industry remains relatively stable, with the machinery sector outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.32 percentage points in June [1] - With the advancement of high-end equipment localization and the release of demand in emerging markets, there are significant structural growth opportunities in the industry [1] Group 3 - The military ETF tracks the CSI Military Index (399967), which is compiled by the China Securities Index Company and includes representative listed companies in aerospace and defense information sectors [1] - The CSI Military Index aims to reflect the overall performance of the Chinese military industry securities, characterized by high industry concentration and distinct style allocation, serving as an important indicator for observing military sector trends [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has closed above 3500 points, suggesting a likely medium-term trend of a slow bull market characterized by fluctuations, influenced by recent tariff shocks and rising overseas uncertainties [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities, recommending a focus on sectors that may benefit from unexpected earnings in mid-year reports and those that could gain from anti-involution trends, including photovoltaic equipment, batteries, passenger vehicles, steel, fiberglass, innovative pharmaceuticals/CXO, and optical modules/PCBs [1] - The analysis highlights that the recovery in profits is expected to be gradual, with ample market liquidity and long-term funds playing a stabilizing role, while also noting that the current core incremental funds are dominated by low-risk preference rather than speculative capital [1] Group 2 - The report discusses the recent clear rotation in the market, where the "anti-involution" trend has reinforced the "high-low switch" strategy, suggesting a focus on sectors that have lagged since March 20 and may benefit from this trend, such as lithium batteries, passenger vehicles, steel, and building materials [2] - It also mentions that since July, the market has responded positively to high growth or exceeding expectations in mid-year reports, with a focus on blue-chip leaders reflecting overall industry improvement expectations, particularly in sectors like shipbuilding, CXO, semiconductor equipment, aquaculture, wind power equipment, military electronics, and overseas computing power [2] - The report notes the impact of new tariff policies initiated by Trump, which introduce uncertainties for global markets and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, as well as a recent trade agreement with Vietnam that could affect related transshipment goods with a 40% tariff [2]

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 13 日 [Table_Title] 跨越 3500，怎么看，怎么办 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ► 行情回顾：跨越 3500 之路 7 月 7-11 日，类权益市场继续走强，上证指数登上 3500 点。 截至 7 月 11 日，万得全 A 收盘价为 5423.46，较 7 月 4 日上 涨 3.56%；中证转债上涨 2.08%，各价位估值均有所拉伸。 上证指数为何能够跨越 3500 点？一方面，市场不缺流动性， 持续夯实的稳市预期，带动风险偏好提升，是当前市场不可 忽视的优势。另一方面，市场不缺叙事，海外算力、稳定 币、"反内卷"、城市更新等均受到市场关注。 这是一个什么样的 3500 点？其一，基本面修复偏缓，主要定 价政策预期；其二，结构行情明显，6 月 23 日以来消费板块 涨幅不明显。其三，赚钱效应仍待提高，主线暂不明朗。 ► 策略：指数高位，挖掘预期差 随着指数来到高位，宏观叙事的影响或将逐渐体现。以基本 面修复偏缓为例，在指数位于相对低位时，这一因素并不会成 为资金决策时的 ...

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market reached approximately 1.50 trillion CNY, a slight increase of nearly 55 billion CNY compared to the previous week[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a weekly increase of 1.09%[12] Market Style Performance - Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, with small-cap value index rising by 2.71% and small-cap growth index increasing by 2.31%[12] - The relative advantage of growth stocks over value stocks remained in positive territory, indicating a favorable trend for growth investments[17] Participant Performance - The market sentiment index rose by 3.56%, indicating strong performance from active funds[20] - The private equity heavy index showed a weekly increase of 1.89%, outperforming other indices[20] Market Sentiment - The total margin trading balance increased to over 1.87 trillion CNY, reflecting a stable market sentiment[28] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit up was 78, while those hitting the limit down was 7, indicating a generally positive market atmosphere[23] Sector Trends - Strong sectors included rare earths, with companies like Northern Rare Earth announcing price increases, and the CRO sector, driven by performance boosts from companies like WuXi AppTec[41] - The brokerage sector also showed strength, benefiting from the overall market rally[41] Future Outlook - Upcoming events include the 9th Rockchip Developer Conference on July 17-18, which may impact TMT sectors[42] - The focus for mid-term industry allocation will be on active domestic circulation, technological self-reliance, and expanding openness[46]

注：指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变 动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩 的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 双创板块在反弹情景中上涨的弹性较高，且涨跌幅限制为20%，具备高弹性的优势，在历轮A股反弹行 情中领涨宽基指数，或为投资者把握A股反弹先锋。 科创芯片ETF国泰（代码：589100）跟踪的是科创芯片指数（代码：000685），涨跌幅限制为20%，该 指数由中证指数有限公司编制，从科创板市场中选取业务涉及半导体材料、设备、设计、制造、封装测 试等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映科创板芯片产业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数 具有鲜明的行业特征，聚焦于芯片产业链，能够有效追踪科创板芯片企业的市场表现。 浙商证券指出，2025年上半年，中美贸易关税、出口限制等政策变化频繁，进一步强化自主可控情绪。 25Q2晶圆厂板块整体有望保持较高行业稼动率运转，但由于新设备引入、新产线投产、产品结构调整 等因素，部分晶圆厂在25Q2存在一定业绩压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power is making significant strides in developing domestic engines, showcasing China's pursuit of self-reliance and its journey towards the global value chain [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The heavy mining equipment market in China is largely dominated by international giants, leading to high market prices and maintenance costs [2] - Mining equipment must operate under extreme conditions, including temperature variations from -45°C to 45°C, and maintain over 90% operational uptime for up to 30 years [2][3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Weichai has invested 120 million yuan over 10 years to overcome various technical challenges in methanol engine development, resulting in the first domestically produced methanol fuel mining excavator engine [3] - The company has developed 73 types of electronic control units (ECUs) for engines, enhancing performance across traditional and new energy platforms [4] Group 3: Diversification of Power Sources - Weichai has transitioned from 100% diesel engines to a multi-fuel platform including gas, hybrid, methanol, and pure electric power, aligning with China's dual carbon goals [5] - The innovation in power solutions is expected to enhance the competitiveness of China's mining industry and pave the way for greener and smarter mining practices [5] Group 4: Smart Manufacturing - Weichai's digital factory is the world's first fully automated engine manufacturing facility, producing an engine every 90 seconds [6] - The factory boasts 100% automation in processing and logistics, with real-time monitoring of key parameters, showcasing advanced smart manufacturing capabilities [6]

Core Insights - The ETF market in China has surpassed 4 trillion yuan in total scale for the first time, achieving a 15% quarter-on-quarter growth, indicating a thriving industry [2] - Leading companies in the ETF space, particularly Jiashi Fund, have demonstrated strong management capabilities and significant market share, with Jiashi Fund holding 260 billion yuan in ETF scale [2][3] - The competitive advantage of top companies lies in their proactive product development and industry foresight, as evidenced by Jiashi Fund's early launches of innovative ETFs [3][4] Market Dynamics - The top 12 fund companies account for over 80% of the market share, with the top five companies holding nearly 60% [2] - Jiashi Fund has launched 25 innovative products in the past five years, with five new ETFs introduced in the first half of this year alone [3] - Jiashi Fund's ETFs, such as the Sci-Tech Chip ETF and Rare Earth ETF, have capitalized on emerging industry trends, showcasing their ability to predict market movements [3][4] Performance Metrics - As of July 10, Jiashi's Sci-Tech Chip ETF has seen a growth of over 58%, while the Software ETF and Rare Earth ETF have increased by over 55% and nearly 40%, respectively [4] - These ETFs have experienced net subscriptions in the past six months, reflecting strong investor interest and confidence in their performance [4] Service Evolution - The service capabilities of fund companies are becoming a new competitive dimension, with Jiashi Fund launching the "Super Jiabei" index investment service mini-program to enhance investor experience [6] - Jiashi Fund has developed an ETF ecosystem that emphasizes not only investment but also strategic guidance and market response, improving overall investor experience [7] - The introduction of tools and manuals, such as the "Artificial Intelligence + ETF Investment Guide," aims to assist investors in understanding industry trends and making informed decisions [7]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the long-term bull market is not over, and investors should focus on growth opportunities [8][119] - The easing of trade friction between China and the U.S. has led to improved bilateral trade conditions, with both sides reducing tariffs [8][50] - The report highlights the importance of policy-driven capital inflows into the market, which are expected to stabilize market performance [8][91] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policy Impact - The U.S. tariff policy has caused significant short-term disruptions to its major trading partners, with trade balances showing varying degrees of decline [8][14] - The report notes that the U.S. economy has shown resilience despite the negative impacts of tariff policies, with a rebound in service sector PMI [8][30] - Historical analysis indicates that U.S. tariff policies often lead to self-inflicted economic consequences, typically resulting in negotiations or retractions [8][44] Group 3: Industry Themes and Opportunities - The report identifies several key sectors for investment, including defense and military, low-altitude economy, stablecoins, AI technologies, and autonomous robotics [8][119] - The defense and military sector is highlighted due to geopolitical tensions, which are expected to drive demand and performance [8][119] - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with market size estimates reaching 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 [8][119] Group 4: Economic Recovery and Consumer Trends - Domestic consumption is gradually recovering, with retail sales showing a year-on-year growth of 6.4% in May [8][64] - The report indicates that infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable, supported by government policies and funding [8][70] - The real estate market is stabilizing, with a reduction in the inventory of unsold properties and a narrowing decline in housing prices [8][73]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and management of the Huatai-PB Innovation Upgrade A fund (000566), highlighting its long-term growth but recent underperformance compared to peers. Fund Performance - The fund has achieved a total return of 247.81% since its inception over 11 years ago, with a current net value of 3.41 yuan [2][12]. - In the past year, the fund's performance has been modest, with a gain of 1.06%, while the average for similar funds was 6.12%, ranking it 1691 out of 2301 [12]. - Over the last three years, the fund has declined by 27.94%, compared to an average decline of 8.52% among peers, ranking it 1686 out of 2041 [12]. - The fund's performance over the last two years shows a decline of 18.55%, while peers gained 1.09%, ranking it 1933 out of 2152 [12]. - In the last six months, the fund gained 3.05%, while the average for similar funds was 8.27%, ranking it 1537 out of 2305 [12]. Fund Management - Fund manager Wu Bangdong took over management on June 9, 2023, and has recorded a return of -20.01% during his tenure [3]. - Wu has 7.5 years of experience primarily in equity products, managing a total of 1.38 billion yuan with an annualized return of 2.58% [3]. Market Analysis - Wu's analysis indicates that the A-share market may experience short-term volatility due to tariff uncertainties, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to domestic factors and policy reserves [4]. - The current domestic environment is seen as a source of confidence, with a focus on internal demand and technological breakthroughs [5]. Fund Size and Holdings - The fund's total shares have decreased significantly over the past two to three years, dropping from 6.38 billion shares in Q2 2022 to 1.72 billion shares in Q1 2025, a reduction of over 73% [12][13]. - The fund's holdings are diversified, with major stocks including Ningde Times, Yutong Bus, and BYD, indicating a cautious investment strategy [13].

Group 1: Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a cyclical recovery, with domestic demand showing signs of improvement and export growth driven by emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East [4][6] - Domestic engineering machinery demand is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by a peak in equipment replacement and increased investment in infrastructure projects, with local government bond issuance rising by 84% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025 [6] - The export value of engineering machinery reached USD 5.152 billion in April 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, with total exports from January to April amounting to USD 18.07 billion, up 9.01% year-on-year [6][8] Group 2: Semiconductor Equipment - The domestic semiconductor equipment industry is poised for expansion, with significant capital expenditure expected for 300mm wafer fabs in China, projected to exceed USD 100 billion from 2025 to 2027 [10][13] - The trend towards self-sufficiency in semiconductor equipment is accelerating, with low domestic localization rates in critical equipment categories, indicating substantial room for import substitution [11][13] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies such as Zhongwei Company, Northern Huachuang, and Quick Intelligent [13][25] Group 3: Industrial Mother Machines - The machine tool industry is on an upward cycle due to ongoing domestic substitution and increasing demand for high-end machine tools, with government policies supporting tax incentives and talent development [14][16] - Short-term performance improvements are anticipated as the industry enters a renewal phase [16] Group 4: Traditional Energy Equipment - The traditional energy equipment sector is benefiting from low oil inventories in the U.S. and the upcoming peak consumption season, which is expected to support rising oil prices [17][19] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S.-Iran negotiations and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are influencing market dynamics [19] - Companies such as Nuwei Co., Xizhuang Co., and Jerry Co. are recommended for investment [19][25] Group 5: New Energy Equipment - The controlled nuclear fusion sector is witnessing increased capital expenditure and technological advancements, with a growing number of startups and active financing in the past five years [20][24] - Significant progress in nuclear fusion technology has been made, with multiple records achieved in plasma operation [24] - Investment opportunities include companies like Hezhuan Intelligent, Xizhuang Co., and Jingda Co. [24][25]