Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" towards emerging countries is nearing its end, while "export grabbing" towards the United States is beginning to take effect [2][7][55] Export Data Analysis - In June, exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up 1.0 percentage point from May, driven by a shift in the main subjects of "export grabbing" [2][7][55] - Exports to emerging countries, particularly Latin America and India, continued to decline, while exports to the United States saw a significant rebound of 18.4% [2][5][55] - The increase in exports to the U.S. was primarily in consumer electronics and furniture, reflecting a resurgence in orders from the U.S. following negotiations in mid-May [2][13][55] Future Outlook - Exports are expected to maintain resilience in July due to continued "export grabbing" towards the U.S., but this may end in August, leading to potential negative impacts from demand exhaustion [3][25][26][56] - The necessity for "export grabbing" towards emerging countries is expected to decrease as the tariff suspension period ends [3][25][26] Regular Tracking of Exports and Imports - Consumer goods exports, including consumer electronics and real estate chain products, showed an upward trend in June [4][29][57] - Capital goods and intermediate goods exports exhibited mixed growth, with significant declines in some categories like shipbuilding and automotive parts, while fertilizers saw a notable increase [4][32][57] - Imports also rebounded in June, primarily driven by an increase in bulk commodity imports, indicating a recovery in domestic investment demand [5][44][58]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、浦聚颖、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 7月14日，海关公布6月进出口数据，出口（美元计价）同比5.8%、预期3.6%、前值4.8%；进口 （美元计价）同比1.1%、预期-0.6%、前值-3.4%。 核心观点：对新兴国家"抢出口"接近结束，对美国"抢出口"开始发酵 然而，此前通过新兴国家"抢出口"的现象仍继续退坡。 从四大类出口商品来看，此前主要面向新兴经济 体出口的中游制造类商品（-0.6pct至5.7%）于本月继续下滑。尽管肥料（+63.7pct至59.3%）的出口回升 明显，但其规模较小；规模较大的集成电路（-9.2pct至24.2%）等增速明显回落，进一步验证了我国对新 兴国家的"抢出口"现象持续退坡。 展望未来，7月我国出口有望因对美"抢出口"延续而维持韧性，但"抢出口"或在8月结束，届时出口将面 临需求透支带来的负面影响。 新兴国家对等关税暂停期将结束，7 月"抢转口"必要性下降。但对美"抢出 口"有望接续，两个指标可做参考：一是通常领先出口一个月的加工贸易进口同比在6 月继续回升；二是 义乌小商品价格仍维持高位。 常规跟踪：出口、进口均 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, exports more fully reflected the positive impact of the Sino - US negotiation easing. In the short term, the export resilience remains and the July reading may be decent. In the medium term, there is high uncertainty in tariff policies after mid - August, and the overall exports in the second half of the year may face a slowdown risk. The bond market may focus more on domestic policy responses, and the disturbance of the "broad credit" sentiment in the third quarter may increase[6][33] - In June, the import growth rate turned positive, mainly due to the low - base effect and price improvement. However, the import volume of upstream energy products weakened and the growth rate of downstream automobile imports slowed down, indicating that domestic demand still needs policy support. The data verification in the third quarter is crucial, and policies may be strengthened to stabilize demand[6][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Export: The Logic of "Rushing to Export" Strengthens, and Transit Trade Cools Down - **Overall Situation**: In June, the export growth rate was +5.8%, 1 percentage point higher than that in May. The export in June more fully reflected the positive impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation easing in mid - May. The "rushing to export" logic continued to support export resilience, and the appreciation of the RMB also boosted the export reading[5][9][18] - **By Commodity Type** - **Labor - Intensive Consumer Goods**: The year - on - year decline of exports of four types of non - durable consumer goods (clothing, footwear, luggage, and toys) narrowed to around 0%, with a month - on - month increase of 11.2%. Toys performed strongly, possibly reflecting the pre - release of the peak export season for Christmas supplies[2][20] - **Intermediate Goods for Production**: The combined year - on - year growth of five types of intermediate goods (plastic products, steel, aluminum, integrated circuits, and general equipment) was +12.2%, driving export growth by 1.4 percentage points. In the short term, intermediate goods exports are expected to maintain high growth[2][21] - **Durable Consumer Goods**: The combined drag of mobile phones and laptops on exports was about 0.4 percentage points, an improvement from May. The contribution of automobile exports increased for three consecutive months, driving June's export growth by 0.5 percentage points[2][24] - **By Country** - **Developed Economies**: In June, the year - on - year decline of exports to the US narrowed by 18.4 percentage points to - 16.1%. Exports to the EU and Japan increased by 7.6% and 6.6% respectively. The weight of exports to the US rebounded to 11.7%, higher than that in April and May but still lower than the level in the first quarter of this year[3][28] - **ASEAN**: The proportion of exports to ASEAN declined to 17.9% in June, the lowest since March this year, as direct exports crowded out transit trade demand[3][28] - **Outlook**: In early August, the "reciprocal tariff" exemption period for multiple parties by the US will end. It is expected that the "rushing to export" in July will continue to be released at an accelerated pace, and the year - on - year export reading may not be weak. Leading indicators suggest that the export growth rate in July may further increase[5][12][33] 3.2 Import: Price Recovery, Low - Base Effect, and the Year - on - Year Growth of Imports Turns Positive - **Overall Situation**: In June, the import amount increased by 1.1% year - on - year, turning positive for the first time since December last year, mainly due to the low - base effect and the improvement of bulk commodity spot prices. However, the month - on - month import decreased by 1.2%, weaker than the seasonal average[4][34] - **By Commodity Type** - **Upstream Bulk Commodities**: The year - on - year import of five types of upstream bulk commodities decreased by 11.4%, dragging down the import by 3.1 percentage points. The weakening of import volume may be the main drag[35] - **Intermediate Goods**: The combined year - on - year growth of four types of intermediate goods was +8.6%, 4.7 percentage points better than that in May, driving the year - on - year import growth by about 1.9 percentage points[35] - **Downstream Consumer Goods**: The combined year - on - year import of three types of consumer goods decreased by 21.0%, and the drag on imports increased by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month[35]

Group 1 - China's export scale exceeded 13 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, achieving a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - In June, the total import and export scale reached 3.85 trillion yuan, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, indicating a recovery in growth rates [1] - The complete industrial chain and continuous technological upgrades provide a strong foundation for China's export resilience amid challenging external environments [1][2] Group 2 - China's manufacturing value added has consistently exceeded 30 trillion yuan annually since the 14th Five-Year Plan, maintaining its position as the world's largest manufacturing country for 15 consecutive years [2] - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2% in the first half of the year, with significant increases in exports of high-end machine tools, ships, and marine engineering equipment [2] - China's trade partnerships expanded, with over 190 countries and regions experiencing growth in imports and exports, and the number of trading partners with a trade scale exceeding 50 billion yuan increased by 5 compared to the previous year [2] Group 3 - Exports to emerging markets contributed significantly to growth, with imports and exports to Africa increasing by 14.4% and to Central Asia by 13.8% in the first half of the year [3] - Despite a decline in export growth to the U.S., China's export resilience is supported by strong product competitiveness and market diversification [3] - Various international organizations have downgraded global trade growth forecasts for 2025, but China has maintained its own pace and rhythm in trade [3]

Group 1: Export Performance - In June, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.6% and the previous value of 4.8%[3] - The significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. by 18.4 percentage points to -16.1% contributed to a total export increase of 1.3 percentage points[4] - The rebound in exports to ASEAN and Hong Kong regions contributed an additional 0.8 percentage points to overall export growth in June[4] Group 2: Factors Influencing Export Growth - The temporary suspension of tariffs since May has positively impacted export orders, with the SCFI index reflecting a significant rise in shipping rates[3] - The depreciation of the RMB against the Euro and the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts have supported resilient export performance to the EU[4] - Exports measured in RMB showed a stronger performance with a year-on-year growth of 7.2% in June, compared to the dollar-denominated figures[4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The sustainability of external demand remains a critical variable, with concerns about the U.S. demand's capacity for further growth[5] - High-frequency indicators suggest a decline in export momentum, with noticeable drops in port cargo volumes and container shipping rates to the U.S. in early July[5] - Risks include potential policy changes, unexpected shifts in domestic economic conditions, and unforeseen fluctuations in export dynamics[7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. The inventory of upstream enterprises is still around 800,000 tons. In July, the top - dressing demand will support the price, and low - buying opportunities can be considered. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turning point lies in exports. (View score: 0) [1] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On July 11, UR01 was 1,734 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan or 0.06% from July 10), UR05 was 1,738 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan or 0.06% from July 10), and UR09 was 1,773 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan or - 0.23% from July 10). [1] - **Spot Prices**: Among domestic small - particle urea spot prices, the price in Hebei increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%) to 1,810 yuan/ton on July 11, while prices in other regions remained unchanged. [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 122 yuan/ton on July 11, down 1 yuan from July 10. The 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged at - 4 yuan/ton. [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively on July 11. [1] - **Downstream**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged on July 11. [1] Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1,776 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,787 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,767 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,773 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,776 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2509 was 197,786 lots. [1] Trading Strategy Pay attention to low - buying opportunities due to the support of top - dressing demand in July. But be aware of the significant downward pressure on prices if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented. [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a complex international environment, China's foreign trade demonstrates strong resilience, with a notable increase in both exports and imports in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% in total trade volume [1][3]. Trade Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's total goods trade reached 21.79 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports by 2.3% [1]. - The trade volume has remained above 10 trillion yuan for nine consecutive quarters, with an increase of over 600 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [3]. - In June 2025, the total trade volume was 3.85 trillion yuan, marking a 5.2% increase year-on-year, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan and imports at 1.51 trillion yuan [3]. Market Diversification - China has expanded its trade relationships, achieving growth in exports and imports with over 190 countries and regions, including a significant increase in trade with emerging markets such as Africa and Central Asia [3][4]. - Trade with Africa reached 1.18 trillion yuan, growing by 14.4%, while trade with Central Asia increased by 13.8% to 357.2 billion yuan [3]. U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - U.S.-China trade saw a decline in the second quarter of 2025, with a year-on-year drop of 20.8%, but there are signs of recovery following recent trade talks [4][5]. - In the first half of 2025, trade with the U.S. decreased by 9.3%, with exports down by 9.9% and imports down by 7.7% [5]. High-Tech and E-commerce Growth - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2%, with significant increases in sectors such as industrial robots and renewable energy equipment [7]. - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached approximately 1.32 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [9]. Business Confidence and Foreign Investment - Confidence among export and import enterprises has been rising, with the number of exporting companies increasing steadily over the years [11]. - In the first half of 2025, foreign-invested enterprises' trade volume reached 6.32 trillion yuan, marking a 2.4% increase [12]. - The number of foreign-invested enterprises with trade performance reached 75,000, the highest since 2021, indicating a strong interest in the Chinese market [13].

Core Insights - In June, China's imports increased by 2.3% year-on-year, marking the first growth since February this year, while exports rose by 5.2%, reaching the second-highest monthly trade volume in history [1] - Notably, rare earth exports surged to 7,742.2 tons in June, a 32.4% month-on-month increase and a 60% year-on-year increase, reaching the highest level since 2009 [2] - Iron ore imports reached nearly 106 million tons in June, the highest level of the year, supported by strong steel exports [3] Import and Export Data - June saw significant increases in various commodities: - Soybean imports remained high at 12.26 million tons, up 10.35% year-on-year [3] - Crude oil imports approached 50 million tons, a three-month high, with a year-on-year increase of 7.39% [3] - Natural gas imports rose to 10.54 million tons, the highest since January, with a year-on-year increase of 1.14% [3] - Conversely, coal imports plummeted to 33 million tons, the lowest level since February 2023, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25.93% [3][5] Trade Dynamics - The steel export volume for the second quarter exceeded market expectations, with finished steel exports reaching 30.7 million tons, an 11% year-on-year increase [2] - Despite the U.S. imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum, exports to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia, have increased [2] - The overall import value of major commodities is significantly influenced by international price fluctuations, with crude oil, iron ore, and soybeans seeing price declines that affected overall import growth [7]

Regulatory Approval - Market regulators approved Synopsys' acquisition of Ansys' equity with restrictive conditions [1] Export Restrictions - The US government has lifted export restrictions on chip design software to China for Siemens AG [1] - Siemens has restored full access to its software and technologies for Chinese customers [1] EDA Software Vendors - Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys have not yet responded to the lifting of export restrictions [1]

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant increase in antimony oxide imports to the U.S. from Thailand and Mexico, which lack relevant industrial chains, indicating potential circumvention of export restrictions on Chinese rare earth resources [3][6]. - From December 2023 to April 2024, the U.S. imported 3,834 tons of antimony oxide from Thailand and Mexico, surpassing the total imports from the previous three years [3]. - The imports from Thailand and Mexico have surged despite these countries not being in the top ten overseas customers for Chinese antimony exports in 2023, highlighting a shift in trade patterns [3][6]. Group 2 - Industry experts emphasize the critical role of minerals like antimony and gallium in global supply chains, particularly in telecommunications and military technologies, with the U.S. fifth-generation fighter jet industry heavily reliant on gallium imports [7]. - Despite a year-long export ban on rare earths from China, there are still instances of smuggling and third-party exports to the U.S., indicating gaps in enforcement [7][12]. - Recommendations include implementing a blockchain-based electronic ID for rare earth shipments to enhance traceability and prevent misreporting and smuggling [9][12]. Group 3 - To improve export control measures, it is suggested that penalties for smuggling be increased, categorizing it as a "national security crime" and pursuing criminal liability for organizers [12]. - Importers should be required to provide real user information and undergo random inspections to ensure compliance with declared purposes [9][12]. - Countries like Thailand and Mexico, which have seen abnormal increases in imports, should be closely monitored, and their smelting capacity should be verified [9][12].