张尧浠：关税出尽地缘风险升级、金价回踩支撑待涨攀升 黄金市场上周：国际黄金触底回升收线，未能跌破10周均线及上升趋势线支撑，故此后市，则有望维持在此支撑上方宽幅区间震荡，或者再度走强攀升。 具体走势上，金价自周初低开34美金至3294.82美元/盎司，便直接先行录得当周高点3305.91美元，之后连续走低跳水，于周四触及趋势线看涨支撑及60日 均线支撑等交点处，也既是当周低点3120.73美元，触底回升，强势拉升反弹，但仍遭遇一定阻力，而周五仍有所走弱运行，最终收于3198.78美元； 相对于开盘价，周振幅185.18美元，收跌96.04美元，跌幅2.91%。 相对于前周收盘价3328.85美元，周振幅208.12美元，收跌130.07美元，跌幅3.91%。 影响上，受到周末中美关税合谈和地缘局势乐观消息的影响，金价当周大幅低开并维持走低，之后，又在美国与其他国家的贸易关税协议接近达成，贸易 乐观情绪继续升温，以及美国表示不会在关税谈判中寻求弱势美元，打压金价进一步走低触及当周低点； 但由于关税压力影响有限，触及的低点又是强劲的看涨支撑，同时，美国4月CPI年率下降，提升了年内的降息预期，特朗普继续呼吁降息， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always a mistake, regardless of the situation [1] - Gold has shown extreme volatility recently, with significant price fluctuations becoming commonplace, particularly since April, indicating a trend of rapid price movements [1] - The future outlook for gold suggests a likely trading range between 2950 and 3500, with potential for both long and short positions as long as there are sufficient reasons and risk management is in place [1] Group 2 - The recent trading session for gold saw a significant increase of 120 USD, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards bullishness, especially after finding support at the 60-day moving average [1] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3270-65, with a potential upward breakout leading towards the 3400 mark, while caution is advised for possible pullbacks before any significant upward movement [1][3] - The analysis of the broader market indicates that the S&P 500 is approaching historical highs, with resistance levels noted at 5920-50 and 6020, suggesting a cautious approach to trading in the current environment [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in international oil prices, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions and potential agreements between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear negotiations, which could significantly impact oil supply and prices [2][3]. Geopolitical Factors - On May 15, international oil prices fell sharply, with WTI and Brent crude futures dropping over 4% at one point, attributed mainly to geopolitical tensions [2]. - Ali Shamkhani, a senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, indicated Iran's willingness to sign a nuclear agreement with the U.S. under specific conditions, which could lead to the lifting of economic sanctions [2][3]. Oil Production and Market Predictions - Citigroup reported a high likelihood of an agreement between Washington and Tehran, potentially increasing Iran's oil production to over 4 million barrels per day and releasing oil reserves [3]. - Following this, Citigroup raised its three-month price forecast for Brent crude by $5 to $60 per barrel, while maintaining average forecasts for the second and third quarters at $62 and $63, respectively [3][4]. Refinery Support and Market Dynamics - Refinery margins have been a significant factor supporting oil prices, with high residual fuel oil crack spreads bolstering global refining profitability [5]. - Citigroup noted that increased refinery profitability could stimulate capacity utilization and hedging activities, providing temporary support for Brent prices [5]. OPEC+ Production Decisions - The unexpected decision by OPEC+ to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in June contributed to the decline in international oil prices, with the third-quarter production forecast raised to a surplus of nearly 600,000 barrels per day [6]. U.S.-Iran Relations - President Trump issued a "final warning" to Iran, emphasizing that the U.S. would not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons and urging Iran to choose between chaos and peace [7][9]. - Trump expressed a willingness to negotiate a new agreement with Iran, contingent on a change in Iran's current policies [9]. Iranian Response - Iranian officials, including President Raisi and Foreign Minister Zarif, rejected U.S. accusations of being a destabilizing force in the Middle East, asserting that U.S. sanctions and pressures have hindered Iran's development [10].

Group 1 - The global trade conflict easing has led to a rebound in oil prices, but subsequent price movements will be primarily influenced by geopolitical situations and OPEC+ production levels [1][4] - As of May 15, international oil prices experienced a significant drop, with WTI crude oil futures at $61.72 per barrel, down over 2.2%, and Brent crude oil futures at $64.66 per barrel, down 2.15% [1] - Positive signals from US-Iran nuclear negotiations have emerged, with Iran's willingness to sign a nuclear agreement under certain conditions, which may lead to the lifting of economic sanctions [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ has officially started its long-awaited production increase process, with an agreement to raise output by 41.1 thousand barrels per day from May to June, despite a lower-than-expected increase in April [2] - OPEC has maintained its oil demand growth forecast for the next two years, projecting a global oil demand increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026, while also revising down its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.9% [2] - The international oil market's trading logic is shifting, with factors such as reduced US tariff pressures and ongoing sanctions against oil-producing countries contributing to price dynamics, while OPEC+ production increases and potential easing of US-Iran tensions present downside risks [4]

止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 死扛，永远是错的，对了也错！ 横批：止损无条件！ 第一，也是最重要的，中美关税和谈，远超市场预期，带来重大利空！上一轮黄金3167下跌2957后大涨3500美元，是得益于关税，当前下跌主要也是关税。 第二，特朗普政府强调，不会在关税谈判中寻求美元贬值；美元贬值是特朗普弱势美元政策，当前则180°转弯不寻求贬值。 第三，俄乌战争，印巴冲突，以色列与中东国家局势当前降温；美国与伊朗谈判传出缓和信号，智通财经5月15日电，伊朗准备与特朗普政府签署一项有条 件的核协议，以换取解除经济制裁。他表示，伊朗将承诺永不制造核武器，销毁其可用于武器化的高浓缩铀库存！ 第四，特朗普中东之行收获满满，分别与沙特，卡塔尔签署万亿美元级别贸易，有助于缓和关税紧张局势。 当前，三个不太确定性利多因素 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 黄金波动率非常高，十几二十美元一会儿的事。单子入场，10-20美元利润轻松，30美元以上也很快；但是，赚了不跑回吐也很快，因为行情节奏太快，慢 一点就是几美元十几美元的波动。持仓就容易回吐或者打损，所以有利润后减仓或者调整止损就很有必要，随时做好获利平仓的准备。除非进到 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are showing signs of stabilization and potential upward movement, with expectations of a rebound in the latter half of the week due to double bottom support and reduced bearish pressures [1][3][5]. Price Movements - On May 13, gold opened at $3236.61 per ounce, reached a low of $3215.88 and a high of $3265.11, closing at $3249.93, marking a daily increase of $13.32 or 0.41% [1]. - The price is expected to fluctuate within a range of $3440 to $3200 in the short term [8]. Market Influences - The decline in the U.S. April CPI to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, which supports gold prices [7]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar index and the call for rate cuts by Trump are contributing to the stabilization of gold prices [3][7]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a broad range of price fluctuations over the past two years, with bearish signals suggesting limited rebound strength [5][10]. - Weekly charts show a potential for gold to challenge the $3400 mark if it maintains above the $3290 support level [11]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns will continue to influence gold prices, with a potential for a peak-to-correction cycle in the latter half of the year [8]. - Historical patterns suggest that gold may either remain in a $2900 to $3400 range for three years or experience a new high followed by a five-year bear market [8].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a significant decline, influenced by geopolitical developments and trade agreements, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [1][3][7]. Price Movement - On May 12, gold opened lower at $3294.82 per ounce, fluctuating between $3265 and $3285, with a daily high of $3305.91 before closing at $3234.72, down $94.13 or 2.83% from the previous close of $3328.85 [1][3]. - The price is expected to remain volatile, with potential support levels at $3160 and resistance at $3290 [3][12]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index showed strength, which may exert downward pressure on gold prices, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is also trending upwards, indicating a potential bullish outlook for yields [5][7]. - Upcoming economic data, including the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and the U.S. CPI, could influence gold prices, with expectations of weak confidence potentially benefiting gold [5][8]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent developments, such as the U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement and easing geopolitical tensions, have contributed to the bearish sentiment in gold prices [3][7]. - Despite these agreements, concerns about economic growth and inflation persist, which may sustain gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [8][9]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a significant weakening of bullish momentum, with gold prices expected to oscillate within a range of $2900 to $3400 over the next few years unless a new high is established [9][10]. - The weekly chart shows a bearish reversal pattern, suggesting that gold may remain in a weak adjustment phase until it can break above $3500 [10][12]. Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment suggests that gold will likely continue to experience fluctuations within a wide range, with potential for a downturn if it fails to reclaim the $3290 level [3][7][12]. - The long-term outlook indicates that as the interest rate cycle nears its end, gold's attractiveness may diminish, leading to a potential peak and subsequent correction [8][9].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a broad increase on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.82% to 3369.24 points, and other indices such as the Shenzhen Composite Index and ChiNext Index rising by 1.70% and 2.39% respectively [1] - The military industry stocks showed significant strength, particularly in aerospace and shipbuilding, driven by optimistic expectations regarding China's military trade prospects due to recent geopolitical developments [1] - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks resulted in substantial progress, significantly lowering bilateral tariff levels, which is expected to positively impact market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The US dollar index saw a slight increase during the Asia-Pacific trading session, accelerating its rise in the European session due to favorable tariff-related news, with a reported increase of approximately 1% by the evening [2] - The offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated by 0.44% to 7.2080 against the backdrop of the US dollar's strength, indicating resilience in the Chinese currency [2] - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities, particularly in export-oriented stocks that have been under pressure, as these are expected to experience a corrective rally following the tariff progress [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a wide range of fluctuations, with a tendency to maintain a sideways movement before potentially strengthening in the future [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices opened at $3,239.69 per ounce and recorded a weekly low of $3,237.44, followed by a strong rally that peaked at $3,437.84 before retreating [1]. - The weekly closing price was $3,328.85, with a weekly range of $200.4 and a gain of $89.16, representing a 2.75% increase [1]. - The market is currently in a sideways trading range, with bullish support expected to hold [3][9]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Technical buying signals and geopolitical tensions, such as the India-Pakistan situation and the U.S. trade deficit reaching a record $140.5 billion, have contributed to gold's price movements [3][8]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and a hawkish tone in statements have influenced market sentiment, leading to a temporary decline in gold prices [8][10]. - Recent developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations and a ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan have further impacted gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [8][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current trading range for gold is expected to continue, with potential for a rebound if it holds above key support levels [9][15]. - The market anticipates that any easing of trade tensions could lead to downward pressure on gold prices, while ongoing concerns about economic growth and inflation may sustain interest in gold [10][12]. - The technical outlook suggests that gold must break above $3,500 to target higher levels, while a failure to do so may lead to a prolonged period of consolidation [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are heavily influenced by trade news and tariffs, with significant daily price movements observed, including a drop of $126 in one day [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold experienced a significant drop of $126, with daily price movements exceeding $100 becoming common since April [1]. - The price of gold fluctuated between $3202 and $3414, with a notable drop below $3360 leading to a decline of $40 [2]. - The market is characterized by a "super sweep" trend, with alternating bullish and bearish pressures making it difficult for traders to establish a clear direction [3]. Group 2: Price Levels and Trading Strategy - The gold price has breached the $3300 mark, with expectations to test the $3200 level, which is a critical support area [5]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $3320-23, with a potential for further declines if this level is not maintained [5]. - The strategy involves shorting at resistance levels while monitoring support at $3270-65 and $3240 [5]. Group 3: Broader Market Context - The U.S. dollar index has surpassed the 100 mark, indicating a potential for further rebounds, while the stock market outlook remains bearish [7]. - Recent trade news has provided short-term bullish sentiment, but the overall market is expected to face downward pressure [9].