Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warns of a significant economic slowdown and inflation resurgence in the second half of 2025, primarily driven by tariff policies [1][3] - Waller predicts that if current trade policies persist, the core PCE inflation rate in the U.S. could exceed 3.5% by Q3 2025, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3] - The unemployment rate may rise from the current 4.1% to over 4.8% as companies are forced to lay off employees to offset rising costs [3] Group 2 - MEXC leveraged trading platform is known for offering up to 125x leverage, supported by a three-tier risk control system, including dynamic margin mechanisms and dual-direction hedging [3][5] - XBIT decentralized exchange enhances trading security with a "zero trust" architecture, executing all orders via smart contracts and allowing for anonymous trading without KYC [5][6] - The combination of MEXC and XBIT provides a unique strategy for investors to hedge against economic downturns, utilizing leverage to capture volatility while ensuring safety through decentralization [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 专业研究·创造价值 美国贸易政策升温 核心观点 铜：美国贸易政策升温，铜价或偏强运行，可参考 3 月行情 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 2025 年 6 月 3 日 铜铝周报 5 月下旬，铜价震荡运行。低库存给予期价支撑，旺季过后消费 预期下降，库存去化放缓给予期价压力。端午期间，美国贸易政策有 所升温。消息面上，5 月 30 日特朗普称将把钢铝关税提高至 50%。该 举动或导致市场对关税的预期再度上升，进而催生套利交易，推升铜 价，可参考 3 月铜价走势。但在经历过 3 月行情后，市场可能对此敏 感性会有所下降。预计铜价震荡偏强运行，上方关注 7.9-8 ...

多资产配置研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：牛播坤 【资产配置快评】 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 ❖ 投资摘要： Poetry and art and knowledge are sacred and pure. —Mary Ann Evans "George Eliot" 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 电话：010-66500825 邮箱：niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360514030002 证券分析师：郭忠良 电话：010-66500830 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 24 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-05-27 《关税战后的全球资产余波——总量"创"辩第 103 期》 2025-05-26 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 23 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-05-19 《资产配 ...

2025 年 6 月 3 日 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,100 | 620 | -1,510 | -1,510 | -2,620 | -4,470 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,685 | -5 | -190 | -190 | 15 | -530 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 145,554 | -35,638 | 57,877 | 57,877 | 16,340 | -20,977 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 124,523 | -15,027 | 15,423 | 15,423 | 2,552 | -41,365 | | | | 1#进口镍 | ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/03 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78240 9604 8.13 三月 77420 9554 8.14 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.22 -778.22 现货出口 507.68 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22780 2639 8.63 三月 21980 2662 6.22 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.74 -281.50 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20290 2446 8.29 三月 19975 2452 8.18 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.67 -945.16 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 122450 15179 8.07 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.28 -4102.92 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力 ...

Group 1 - Emerging market arbitrage trading is resurging due to indications that President Trump's aggressive tariff measures may not be fully implemented, leading to reduced currency volatility [1] - The arbitrage return index, which reflects traders borrowing low-yielding currencies to invest in higher-yielding ones, reached a seven-year high at the end of May [1] - Asset management companies have increased their long positions in emerging market currencies in recent weeks, with long positions in the Mexican peso reaching a nine-month high [1]

摩根大通CEO戴蒙警告，因为美国政府"花钱"大手大脚、美联储QE猛开印钞机，债市将会"崩溃"。美国自身有种种问题，相比海外对手，"内部的敌人"才是美 国最大的威胁。 债市危机不是会不会来 是何时来 戴蒙认为，美国政府之前"大规模过度"的支出以及美联储同样"大规模过度"的量化宽松（QE）政策，已为债券市场埋下定时炸弹，会让债市"崩溃"。他在美东 时间30日周五出席一个论坛的会议时说： "内部敌人"：美国真正的威胁 戴蒙认为，他国并非美国最大的威胁，真正的威胁是"内部敌人"。他说，被视为潜在对手的大国在很多方面做得很好，也有很多问题 "但我真正担心的是我们自己。我们能否整顿好自己——我们的价值观、能力和管理。" 戴蒙认为美国存在"管理不善"的问题，说现在"管理不善的程度非同寻常"。他呼吁完善政府许可、监管、移民、税收、市中心学校和医疗保健系统。他表示，如 果这些问题得到解决，美国经济的年增长率有望达到3%。 戴蒙表示，他同意"股神"巴菲特的观点，也认为美国有韧性是常态，但指出，这次情况不同。"我们必须齐心协力，必须迅速行动。"政客们应该专注于解决美国 的问题。税法、市中心学校和军队都需要改革。 "我只是不知道这会 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. government’s excessive spending and the Federal Reserve's aggressive quantitative easing (QE) policies have created a ticking time bomb for the bond market, leading to a potential collapse [2] - The CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, expressed uncertainty about the timing of the impending crisis, suggesting it could occur in six months to six years, and emphasized the need for a change in the debt trajectory and market-making capabilities [2] - Dimon highlighted concerns about global deficit spending and indicated that the bond market might experience a "small kerfuffle" that would necessitate Federal Reserve intervention [2] Group 2 - Dimon identified "internal enemies" as the greatest threat to the U.S., emphasizing the need for the country to address its own management issues, values, and capabilities [3] - He called for improvements in government licensing, regulation, immigration, taxation, urban education, and healthcare systems, suggesting that resolving these issues could boost the U.S. economic growth rate to 3% [3] - According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. government deficit was approximately $2 trillion last year, accounting for about 7% of GDP, with Dimon warning that this could rise to 10% if the country enters a recession [3] Group 3 - Dimon supports taxing arbitrage trading, aligning with recent efforts by the Trump administration to close tax loopholes in this area [4] - He suggested that the revenue from such taxes could be used to increase income tax credits, potentially benefiting individuals without children, with an estimated additional cost of $60 billion [4] - Dimon also stated that the U.S. should not allow significant state and local tax (SALT) deductions and urged Congress to pass tax legislation before focusing on other growth issues [5]

摩根大通CEO戴蒙：美国绝对应当对套利交易征税。 ...

Group 1 - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated that the U.S. "absolutely" should tax arbitrage trading [1] - The U.S. should not allow significant state and local tax (SALT) deductions [2] - The government should aim to improve efficiency [3]