2025年4月14日，A股开盘三大指数集体高开。资金新宠自由现金流ETF（159201）高开红盘震荡，交投 活跃，成交额快速突破7500万元。指数成分股中，一汽富维、宸展光电等领涨。 资金流入方面，自由现金流ETF（159201）上市以来31个交易日净流入28.69亿元，资金抢筹特征显 著。份额方面，自由现金流ETF最新份额达35.71亿份；规模方面，自由现金流ETF最新规模达33.48亿 元，均创成立以来新高。 消息面上，中国人民银行4月13日发布的数据显示，3月末，社会融资规模同比增长8.4%；人民币贷款 余额同比增长7.4%，增速较上月加快，广义货币供应量（M2）同比增长7.0%，增速基本稳定。主要金 融指标增速均回升，金融对实体经济的支持力度保持稳固。 数据显示，4月7日至4月11日全市场900余只股票ETF净流入接近1700亿元，创下年内单周最高记录。业 内认为，此次股票ETF的爆发性流入，释放出三重积极信号。一是增量资金入场节奏加速，二是市场情 绪修复进入新阶段，三是机构投资者调仓布局轨迹显现。 自由现金流ETF（159201）紧密跟踪国证自由现金流指数，指数样本选取范围广，价值和质量因子强强 联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The interview with the deputy general manager of the international business department of Southern Fund, Yun Lei, emphasizes a cautious and rational investment approach, focusing on low drawdown, low volatility, and moderate returns rather than chasing performance rankings [1][3]. Investment Philosophy - Yun Lei's investment philosophy has evolved from focusing on company growth and competitive advantages to prioritizing valuation and risk management [3]. - The investment strategy aims to avoid overly popular assets and instead focuses on companies with clear cash flow and stable returns [1][3]. Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market presents complex investment challenges, requiring a rational perspective to avoid misleading investors into chasing high prices [2][4]. - The liquidity in the Hong Kong market is relatively scarce, leading to weaker pricing efficiency and significant style rotation, which demands high adaptability from fund managers [3][4]. Risk Management Strategies - Two main strategies for managing risks in the Hong Kong market are identified: style rotation and diversified portfolio construction [4][5]. - The diversified approach aims to balance growth and value stocks, providing resilience against market fluctuations [5]. Investment Style - Yun Lei identifies as a value investor, focusing on low-valuation, high-quality cash flow assets, while considering growth stocks as more speculative [6][7]. - The investment strategy includes a preference for stocks with high cash flow yields and a cautious approach to high-volatility assets [7][8]. Future Plans - Southern Fund's international business department is focused on expanding its product line, including both active and passive cross-border investment products [9][10]. - The department aims to innovate within the asset management industry, particularly in developing Smart Beta index products for various markets [10].

一 上周市场回顾 1.1 相关热点回顾 一、基金申报发行动态 上周共上报 73 只基金， 较 上上周申报数量 有所上升 。申报的产品包括 1 只 QDII ， 1 只 FOF ，华安创业板人工智能 ETF 、工银瑞信中证智选质量红 利 50ETF 、兴业中证全指自由现金流 ETF 、汇添富创业板 ETF 、招商创业板人工智能 ETF 、华宝恒生 A 股机器人主题 ETF 、招商中证机器人 ETF 、 鹏华国证机器人产业 ETF 等 。 报 告 摘 要 一、上周市场回顾 二、开放式公募基金表现 三、基金产品发行情况 上周新成立基金 17 只，合计发行规模为 204.69 亿元，较前一周有所增 加。 此外， 上周有 41 只基金首次进入发行 阶段， 本周将有 33 只基金 开始发行。 上周主动权益、灵活配置型、平衡混合型基金收益分别为 -3.93% 、 -2.82% 、 -2.14% 。 今年以来另类基金业绩表现最优，中位数收益为 8.60% ，主动权益型、灵活配置型和平衡混合型基金的中位数收益分别为 -1.21% 、 -1.04% 、 -2.02% 。 上周指数增强基金超额收益中位数为 -0.36% ，量化对冲 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to select stocks with strong cash flow performance and further refine the selection based on valuation metrics such as free cash flow yield [5][6] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the stock universe by excluding ST/*ST stocks, financial and real estate sectors, and stocks with abnormal price movements or financial irregularities [6] 2. Filter stocks with positive free cash flow and enterprise value, where: $ \text{Free Cash Flow} = \text{Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities} - \text{Cash Paid for Fixed Assets, Intangible Assets, and Other Long-term Assets} $ $ \text{Enterprise Value} = \text{Market Capitalization} + \text{Total Liabilities} - \text{Cash and Cash Equivalents} $ [6][19] 3. Select stocks with positive operating cash flow for the past five years and rank them by profitability quality, defined as: $ \text{Profitability Quality} = \frac{\text{Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities} - \text{Operating Profit}}{\text{Total Assets}} $ Retain the top 80% based on this ranking [6][19] 4. Rank the remaining stocks by free cash flow yield: $ \text{Free Cash Flow Yield} = \frac{\text{Free Cash Flow}}{\text{Enterprise Value}} $ Select the top 100 stocks [6][19] 5. Weight the selected stocks by their free cash flow over the past year, with a cap of 10% on individual stock weights. Adjust the portfolio quarterly [6][19] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures companies with strong cash flow performance and aligns with the investment theme of free cash flow [6][19] - **Model Name**: Simulated Free Cash Flow Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: This model replicates the CSI Free Cash Flow Index methodology to construct a portfolio for backtesting purposes [19] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Follow the same stock selection criteria as the CSI Free Cash Flow Index [19] 2. Adjust the portfolio three times a year (April, August, October) [19] **Model Evaluation**: The simulated portfolio closely mirrors the performance of the CSI Free Cash Flow Index, demonstrating its robustness [23] Model Backtesting Results - **CSI Free Cash Flow Index**: - Annualized Return: 18.75% - Annualized Volatility: 22.79% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.82 [15][16] - **Simulated Free Cash Flow Portfolio**: - Annualized Return: 18.75% - Annualized Volatility: 23.40% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.80 [21][23] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Revenue-to-Free Cash Flow Ratio **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the proportion of revenue that translates into free cash flow, highlighting companies with strong revenue generation but weak cash flow performance [40] **Factor Construction Process**: $ \text{Revenue-to-Free Cash Flow Ratio} = \frac{\text{Revenue} - \text{Free Cash Flow}}{\text{Revenue}} $ [40] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows low correlation with common factors, indicating its uniqueness [44] - **Factor Name**: Quadrant Analysis Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Classifies stocks into four quadrants based on the marginal changes in revenue and free cash flow [51] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Divide stocks into four groups: - Revenue growth and free cash flow growth - Revenue growth and free cash flow decline - Revenue decline and free cash flow growth - Revenue decline and free cash flow decline [51] 2. Construct equal-weighted portfolios for each quadrant [54] **Factor Evaluation**: The "double growth" quadrant (revenue and free cash flow growth) delivers the highest annualized return, while the "double decline" quadrant performs the worst [58] Factor Backtesting Results - **Revenue-to-Free Cash Flow Ratio**: - RankIC Mean: -2.28% (CSI All Share), -4.17% (CSI 300), -3.09% (CSI 500), -1.63% (CSI 1000) - RankIC IR: -0.51 (CSI All Share), -0.43 (CSI 300), -0.46 (CSI 500), -0.25 (CSI 1000) [46] - **Quadrant Analysis Factor**: - "Double Growth" Portfolio: Annualized Return: 13.20% - "Double Decline" Portfolio: Annualized Return: 7.89% [58]

Core Viewpoint - Verizon has shown resilience in a challenging market, achieving over 6% positive returns year-to-date, contrasting with a 14% decline in the broader market [1] Financial Performance - Verizon has consistently met or exceeded earnings expectations for the past 10 quarters, averaging a 1.4% beat per quarter, but has only exceeded revenue expectations 50% of the time, with an average revenue miss of 0.2% per quarter [2] - Key metrics to watch for the upcoming first quarter include expected revenue of $33.3 billion and a standardized EPS of $1.15, with anticipated year-over-year revenue growth of less than 1% [4] - The company is facing increased competitive pressure from AT&T and T-Mobile, which may lead to higher customer churn rates and stagnant postpaid net additions despite a strong fourth quarter [4][6] Strategic Initiatives - Verizon's management is focusing on enhancing customer experience through initiatives like the myPlan and personalized services, which may help mitigate potential user growth challenges [6] - Price increases are expected to generate approximately $1 billion in incremental revenue, with wireless service revenue projected to grow 2-2.8% year-over-year [6] Debt and Cash Flow - Verizon has a significant debt burden of $144 billion, with 82% being unsecured, leading to scrutiny over its ability to generate free cash flow [7] - Expected free cash flow for FY25 is projected to decline by about 9% to $18 billion, with cash dividend outflows potentially reaching $11.5 billion [8][9] Valuation and Market Position - Verizon's current dividend yield of over 6% is attractive but not significantly better than the industry average of 6.2% [9][10] - The stock's forward valuation is not considered cheap, trading at a premium compared to its five-year average rolling P/E ratio of 8.4 times [12] - Expected EPS growth for the year is less than 2%, resulting in a high PEG ratio of over 5, indicating that the current premium may not be justified [14]

消息面上，4月8日开盘前，中央汇金有关负责人就2025年4月7日公告答记者问，中央汇金公司一直是维 护资本市场稳定的重要战略力量,是资本市场上的"国家队"，发挥着类"平准基金"作用。下一步将坚定 增持各类市场风格的ETF，加大增持力度，均衡增持结构。 今日，A股市场迎来反弹，沪指重回3100点上方。资金新宠自由现金流ETF（159201）盘中涨超1%，成 交额快速突破1.7亿元，持仓股大商股份、山东海化涨停，红旗连锁、中国通号等跟涨。 公开数据显示，国内首只跟踪国证自由现金流指数的自由现金流ETF（159201）自2月27日上市后便持 续"吸金"，上一交易日净流入1.6亿元，上市27个交易日中有25个交易日净流入，合计净流入达26.99亿 元；基金份额从上市期初的6.94亿份增长至33.84亿份，份额增长超387%，资金抢筹特征显著。 国证自由现金流指数的长期业绩突出，以全收益指数（含分红收益）计算风险收益特征，自2013/12/31 以来,国证自由现金流全收益指数累计涨幅达633.08%，年化超20%。相对宽基及红利指数，大部分时间 相对跌幅更小，信用退潮期表现更佳。 此外，华夏国证自由现金流ETF联接基金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of "cash cow" strategy ETFs focused on free cash flow, with multiple fund companies filing for related products after the initial launch of free cash flow ETFs [1][2]. Group 1: Free Cash Flow ETFs Overview - Two fund companies will track the CSI Free Cash Flow Index, while four will track the Guo Zheng Free Cash Flow Index, potentially leading to three indices being tracked in the market [2]. - The Guo Zheng Free Cash Flow Index has a sample size of 100 stocks, which is larger compared to the other two indices [8]. Group 2: Index Selection Criteria - The Guo Zheng Free Cash Flow Index and FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus Index have a broader sample space, while the CSI Free Cash Flow Index only considers CSI 300 constituent stocks [4][5]. - All three indices exclude financial and real estate sectors due to their distinct cash flow characteristics, ensuring a focus on companies with stable cash flows [6][7]. Group 3: Market Capitalization and Growth Potential - The Guo Zheng Free Cash Flow Index includes a mix of large, medium, and small-cap stocks, enhancing its growth potential, while the CSI Free Cash Flow Index is more focused on large-cap stocks [9][10]. - The Guo Zheng Free Cash Flow Index has 51.63% of its constituents with a market cap over 100 billion, while the CSI Free Cash Flow Index has 89.13% [10]. Group 4: Industry Distribution - The Guo Zheng Free Cash Flow Index has a more balanced industry distribution compared to the other indices, with major sectors including automotive, petrochemicals, and home appliances [12][14]. - The top three sectors in the Guo Zheng Free Cash Flow Index account for 15.02%, 14.40%, and 13.64% respectively, indicating a diversified approach [14][15]. Group 5: Performance Metrics - Since its inception on December 31, 2013, the Guo Zheng Free Cash Flow Index has achieved a cumulative return of 633.08%, with an annualized return exceeding 20% [18][19]. - The Guo Zheng Free Cash Flow Index has a higher annualized Sharpe ratio compared to the other indices, indicating better risk-adjusted returns [19]. Group 6: Timing and Sector Rotation - The analysis suggests that free cash flow can provide a timing effect for cyclical stocks, allowing for adjustments in sector weightings based on market conditions [20].

今天市场还是比较清晰的，美东时间的4月2日，也就是我们这儿的明天凌晨或者上午，对等关税的细节就会公布，市场 的避险情绪还是强烈的，体现在两点。 一是今天 交易量 跌破1万亿 ，这也是1月13日之后，今年第二次跌破万亿，不过上涨的股票超过一半，大家更多的还是 观望，这轮A股和H股，整体还算是比较顽强的了； 二是看 融资余额 ，昨天又流出50亿左右，最近8个交易日，有7天流出，上一次这么集中的流出，还是12月31日开始的 那轮，连续9个交易日，有8天流出，然后在流出的最后一天，恰好就是1月13日，成交跌破了1万亿。 所以，你看，上面两个又可以合并在一起看，两融的杠杆资金不进来，场子就容易冷下去。 具体，静观其变等消息吧，不过细节公布后，与其说是结束，不如说是新一轮关税冲击的开始，贸易相关的冲突，会更 焦灼，而不是更缓和，这点，我相信自上而下，都是能想明白的。 ...... 今天，聊两个近期的风险事件，分别是渤海银行超高的消费贷不良率，以及中航产融退市的新闻，前者大家可能都没注 意到，后者问的人比较多。 整体来看，这两个事，其实都属于同一个类型，简而言之就是： 步子迈的太大了，扯到蛋了。 先说渤海银行。 渤海银行， ...

// 市场要闻 // 国有大行重磅官宣。 3月30日下午，中国银行、中国建设银行、交通银行发布公告称，董事会通过 了向特定对象发行A股股票条件的议案。其中，建设银行拟引入财政部战略投资，募资总额不超过 人民币1050亿元。交通银行拟定增募资不超过1200亿元，发行对象为财政部、中国烟草和双维投 资，其中财政部拟认购金额为1124.2亿元。募资均用于补充核心一级资本。中国银行拟向特定对象 发行A股股票，募集资金总额不超过1650亿元。 社保基金重仓这些股票。 随着上市公司年报密集披露，作为长线资金代表的社保基金 2024 年末重 仓股及持股变动情况浮出水面。 Wind数据显示，截至3月28日，已有938家上市公司披露了2024年年报，其中有133家上市公司（包含2 家未披露年报但已披露2024年末十大流通股东上市公司）的前十大流通股东中出现了社保基金的身影。 2024年四季度，社保基金新进29只个股的前十大流通股东序列，同时对40只个股的持股数量增加。 自由现金流 ETF 近期成为基金行业的一大焦点。 在挖掘基金重仓股上只看净利润不看现金流的策 略，使得许多基金经理在过去三年间积累了大量有关忽视自由现金流的"苦 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in domestic business and has opened up opportunities in international markets [2] - The company's profitability and cash flow have maintained high growth, indicating an improvement in profit efficiency and value enhancement [2][3] - The company plans to increase its cash dividend payout ratio, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 284.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.51% year-on-year [3][10] - The company's net profit margin for 2024 was approximately 3.58%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The express delivery and large parcel segment generated revenue of approximately 200.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.10%, with a net profit of approximately 10.98 billion yuan, up 29.91% [4] - The instant delivery segment saw revenue of approximately 9.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.24%, with net profit doubling to approximately 132 million yuan [5] - The supply chain and international segment reported revenue of approximately 74.00 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.72%, but a net loss of approximately 1.32 billion yuan [5] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - The peak period for capital expenditure has passed, with 2024 capital expenditure at 9.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 27% year-on-year [6] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 32.2 billion yuan, an increase of 21% year-on-year, and free cash flow rose by 70% to 22.3 billion yuan [7] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.4 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year, with an expected total dividend payout of approximately 4.1 billion yuan, representing a payout ratio of about 40% [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 11.91 billion yuan, 14.26 billion yuan, and 16.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 19.8%, and 18.1% [9]