本文作者为创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 自11月19日首席视点提出积极地等待后，市场处于相对僵持的状态。此后，我们陆续讨论了2026年流动 性、康波周期等五大周期，以及策略实施的问题。上期提出了锚定盈利、聚焦中游、工具适配的2026年 资产配置策略，其有效性根植于"风险溢价下行、盈利上行、结构分化"的三重共振。契合我们一直坚持 的"周期共振为锚、战略聚焦新动能、战术攻守兼备"的核心框架，在不确定性中锚定盈利确定性，在结 构分化中把握中游产业的稀缺价值。 在上述策略的实施中，还有一些基本的技术细节没有处理。这些细节对单一资产收益和风险边界的确 定，对股票、债券、黄金等不同资产性价比的认定具有决定性的作用，主要指资产配置的基准线。从宏 观策略的视角看，这些基准线由收益的基准线和风险的基准线组成。收益的基准线主要指基础因子中的 经济增长，GDP增长率和企业盈利率是最基本的分析因素。 风险的基准线主要指通货膨胀因子，CPI和PPI是主要观察对象。除此之外，无风险收益率是资产配置的 基准，这可以纳入流动性因子之中。投资者关注的流动性还包括资金的价格和资金的数量，资金的价格 包括贷款市场报价利率（LPR）以及人民币汇率 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: The Fed's FOMC meeting was dovish. With the US economy and inflation on a downward trend, the soft - landing trade driven by liquidity has further heated up. The SEP shows an upward adjustment in economic growth outlook and a slight downward adjustment in inflation expectations. The nomination of the new Fed chair may be confirmed early next year, and the more dovish candidate, Hasset, has an increasing probability of being nominated. Before his nomination and taking office, it may be the most favorable period for the trading of liquidity easing expectations and Fed independence risks [5]. - Domestic macro: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in December analyzed and studied the economic work for 2026. The tone of the meeting is moderately positive. It is expected that the overall intensity of macro - policies in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, and the idea of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical balance will continue. Food prices have rebounded significantly, and prices of household appliances, clothing, airplane tickets, domestic services, and catering have also increased [5]. - Asset views: The current macro - environment is beneficial to the precious metals sector and non - ferrous metals with high financial attributes such as copper and aluminum. Attention should also be paid to other non - ferrous metals like tin and lithium carbonate. Domestic equities are conservative at the end of the year and during the policy window period. The strong demand for industrial products in emerging markets and the expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for industrial commodities. The tight supply - demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum may drive their prices higher. On the equity side, the stock index lacks upward momentum after the important meetings have set the tone and is relatively defensive [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary - **Stock index futures**: CSI 300 futures are at 4499.4 with a daily increase of 1.02%, a weekly decrease of 0.14%, a monthly decrease of 2.57%, a quarterly increase of 14.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.75%. Other stock index futures also show different price changes and trends [2]. - **Treasury bond futures**: 2 - year treasury bond futures are at 102.43 with a daily decrease of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.04%, a monthly increase of 0.05%, a quarterly increase of 0.14%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.53%. Different - term treasury bond futures have different performance [2]. - **Foreign exchange**: The US dollar index is at 98.28 with a daily increase of 0.10%, a weekly increase of 0.226%, a monthly increase of 3%, a quarterly increase of 0.47%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.40%. Exchange rates between different currencies also show various changes [2]. - **Interest rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate is at 1.48 with a daily change of 0 bp, a weekly increase of 2 bp, a monthly decrease of 2 bp, a quarterly increase of 3 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 27 bp. Other interest rates also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Hot industries**: Industries such as comprehensive finance, commerce and trade retail, and consumer services show different price movements and gains or losses in different time periods. For example, the comprehensive finance index is at 880 with a daily increase of 1.139%, a weekly increase of 1.13%, a monthly decrease of 1.78%, a quarterly decrease of 6.60%, and a year - to - date increase of 13.08% [2]. - **Overseas commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil is at 56.68 with a daily decrease of 1.48%, a weekly increase of 51.48%, a monthly decrease of 3.08%, a quarterly increase of 20.225%, and a year - to - date decrease of 21.2%. Different overseas commodities have different price trends [2]. 3.2 Viewpoints on Different Sectors | Sector | Variety | Recent Market Logic | Attention Points | Short - term Judgment | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Financial | Stock index futures | Technology events catalyze the activity of the growth style | Crowded funds in small - cap stocks | Oscillatory rise | | | Stock index options | The overall market turnover has slightly declined | Insufficient liquidity in the options market | Oscillation | | | Treasury bond futures | The bond market remains weak | Policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises | Oscillation | | Precious metals | Gold/Silver | Geopolitical and trade relations have eased, leading to a phased adjustment of precious metals | US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends | Oscillation | | Shipping | Container shipping to Europe | The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and loading pressure lacks upward driving force | The rate of freight decline in September | Oscillation | | Black building materials | Steel, iron ore | The market is still weak, and attention is paid to cost support and demand changes | Special bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics | Oscillation | | | Coke | Cost support is strong, and the market oscillates | Steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Coking coal | Supply is difficult to improve, and spot prices continue to rise | Steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Ferrosilicon | Cost support exists, but upward driving force is insufficient | Raw material costs and steel procurement | Oscillation | | | Manganese silicon | Supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the market is under pressure | Cost prices and overseas quotes | Oscillation | | | Glass | Supply cuts have been implemented, and spot prices have risen | Spot sales | Oscillation | | | Soda ash | Downstream replenishment at low prices, and spot prices have slightly increased | Soda ash inventory | Oscillation | | Non - ferrous metals | Copper | Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices have declined in the short term | Supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession | Oscillation | | | Aluminum oxide | The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure | Insufficient ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends | Oscillation | | | Aluminum | Inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices are rising oscillatingly | Macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand | Oscillatory rise | | | Zinc | Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly | Macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply | Oscillation | | Energy and chemical | Crude oil | Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist | OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations | Oscillation | | | LPG | Supply is still in surplus, and attention is paid to cost developments | Cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane | Oscillation | | | Asphalt | Asphalt futures prices may test the 3200 resistance level again | Sanctions and supply disruptions | Oscillatory decline | | | High - sulfur fuel oil | The fuel oil market oscillates weakly | Geopolitics and crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Low - sulfur fuel oil | Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and oscillates weakly | Crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Methanol | There is some support at the 2100 level, and methanol oscillates | Macro - energy and overseas dynamics | Oscillation | | | Urea | High inventory suppresses while cost supports, and it oscillates narrowly | Coal prices and information from the Nanjing phosphorus compound fertilizer conference | Oscillation | | | Ethylene glycol | The supply - demand contradiction has become the focus again, and pessimism is hard to reverse | Fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions | Oscillatory decline | | | PX | The market lacks clear guidance, and cost and sentiment compete to maintain oscillation | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | PTA | Xin Fengming starts new and stops old, and short - term new supply is limited | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | Short - fiber | Downstream factories are digesting previous inventories, and processing fees are expected to be compressed | Downstream yarn mill purchasing rhythm and peak - season demand | Oscillation | | | Bottle - grade polyester chips | Cost is stalemate, and supply - demand driving force is limited | Implementation of bottle - grade polyester chip enterprise production reduction targets and new device commissioning | Oscillation | | | Propylene | Downstream transactions have limited improvement, and the market oscillates | Oil prices and domestic macro - situation | Oscillation | | | PP | Fundamental support is limited, and PP weakens | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Plastic | Maintenance has decreased in the short term, and the plastic market is in a weak pattern | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Styrene | There are still concerns about over - inventory, and styrene oscillates weakly | Oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics | Oscillatory decline | | | PVC | Market sentiment has cooled, and PVC oscillates weakly | Expectations, costs, and supply | Oscillation | | | Caustic soda | Low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates | Market sentiment, production start - up, and demand | Oscillation | | Agriculture | Oils and fats | Market sentiment has improved, waiting for positive factors to ferment | US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data | Oscillation | | | Protein meal | Both types of meal have risen, and the market remains strong | Weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars | Oscillatory rise | | | Corn/starch | Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates | Demand, macro - situation, and weather | Oscillation | | | Live pigs | Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and prices oscillate | Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies | Oscillatory decline | | | Natural rubber | The market oscillates and adjusts, and the bearish sentiment remains | Producing area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes | Oscillatory decline | | | Synthetic rubber | It has rebounded from the bottom, and attention is paid to changes in trading sentiment | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil | Oscillatory decline | | | Cotton | The main contract oscillates, with limited upward and downward space | Demand and inventory | Oscillation | | | Sugar | The idea of shorting at high prices is maintained | Imports and Brazilian production | Oscillatory decline | | | Pulp | The market volume has increased, and the enthusiasm for spot - futures arbitrage has risen | Macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes | Oscillation | | | Offset printing paper | Offset printing paper follows the pulp market and strengthens | Production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production start - up dynamics | Oscillation | | | Logs | Logs oscillate at the bottom | Special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume | Oscillation | [6][8]

法国兴业银行发布最新投资策略报告显示，截至2026年，黄金将持续在与美国债券、美元的资产表现比拼 中占据上风。该行不仅维持黄金在多资产组合中的最大配置权重，更向建议投资者把握回调窗口逢低买 入，锁定这一贵金属的长期投资价值。 该行已将美国通胀挂钩债券的风险敞口完全清零，同时将公司债券的持仓比例大幅削减50%，最终降至5% 的低位。而黄金在其多资产投资组合中的配置比例始终稳定在10%，成为唯一保持高位配置的资产类别。 该行预计到2025年底，国际现货黄金价格将攀升至每盎司5000美元的高位。从资金流向来看，散户投资者 的资产分散化需求正在持续释放，大量资金通过实物黄金以及黄金ETF等渠道涌入黄金市场。 黄金的投资价值不仅体现在散户资金的追捧，更得到全球央行的认可。当前，各国央行出于外汇储备多元 化的战略考量，正持续降低美元资产的占比，而黄金作为超主权货币的属性，成为央行资产配置的优选标 的。 此外，黄金在应对各类潜在风险时的作用不可替代，尤其是在美联储高层人事变动后，货币政策转向鸽派 的概率显著上升，这种政策预期下，黄金作为抗通胀、对冲货币贬值风险的资产，吸引力将持续增强。 法兴银行判断，未来一段时间内，美联储 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the transportation sector is facing significant profit impacts in 2025, with a general decline in ROE and net profit year-on-year. The market is currently pricing in a disconnection between stock prices and 2025 performance trends, highlighting a situation where profit and stock price bottoms are evident, but valuations appear high [3]. Transportation Sector Analysis - The report suggests that in 2026, the focus should be on identifying alpha within beta stocks, as different sub-industries will experience varying recovery paces. Key investment strategies include: 1. Domestic demand recovery is expected to precede external demand, with a low base in 2026 being a significant factor [3]. 2. Upstream sectors are anticipated to recover before downstream sectors, with initial signs of price and inventory recovery in Q3 2025 [3]. 3. Price increases are expected to precede volume growth, with supply constraints influencing the cyclical recovery across different sectors [3]. Macro Economic Outlook - The report provides a macroeconomic outlook for 2026, indicating that while U.S. broad market indices are relatively expensive, they are not at extreme levels. The Chinese stock market has potential for nominal growth recovery, which could lead to a re-evaluation of A-share valuations [3]. - The report also highlights that the current market breadth is healthy, suggesting a broad-based potential for upward movement in indices such as the S&P 500 and the CSI 300 [3].

Group 1: Fixed Income Insights - The focus is on the asset allocation challenges in a low interest rate environment in 2026, with a deep dive into the framework of major asset allocation and the steady approach of "fixed income +" strategies [2] - The strategic value of bond ETFs and structural opportunities in credit bonds and convertible bonds will be analyzed to provide practical guidance for diversified allocation [2] Group 2: Macroeconomic Stability - The forum will explore how China's macro economy can achieve "steady progress" in 2025, addressing whether the current economy is "steady with progress" or "progress with concerns" [5] - Key issues such as low CPI operation and the stabilization of the real estate market will be discussed, along with the balance between "stabilizing growth" and "preventing risks" [5] Group 3: Technology Sector Strategy - The outlook for 2026 highlights the advancement of AI, focusing on three main areas: the large-scale implementation of domestic computing power, breakthroughs in multimodal capabilities of large models, and the scaling of enterprise-level AI applications [7] - The discussion will center on the industrial transition from "+AI" to "AI+" and the investment opportunities that arise from this shift [7] Group 4: Real Estate Market Analysis - The analysis indicates that stable policy expectations, a low interest rate environment, and improved supply-demand structures are key forces supporting the stabilization of the real estate market [10]

● 本报记者 昝秀丽 社保基金会12月16日消息，社保基金会党组书记、理事长刘昆12月15日主持召开党组会议，传达学习中 央经济工作会议精神，研究贯彻落实工作。会议明确，要稳妥审慎抓好基金投资运营。紧密跟踪国内外 宏观经济和资本市场形势，科学有效开展资产配置，稳健做好各大类资产投资。充分发挥长期资金、耐 心资本作用，在守住安全底线的基础上，积极服务国家发展需要，更好支持科技创新和产业创新深度融 合。 会议提出，中央经济工作会议是党的二十届四中全会后党中央召开的一次十分重要的会议。习近平总书 记的重要讲话，全面总结2025年经济工作，深刻分析当前经济形势，系统部署2026年经济工作，具有很 强的思想性、战略性、指导性，为扎实做好明年经济工作，确保"十五五"开好局、起好步指明了前进方 向、提供了根本遵循。理事会全体党员干部要认真学习领会，坚决抓好贯彻落实。 会议明确，要持续深入学习习近平总书记重要讲话和会议精神，与学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神结 合起来，准确把握精神实质和实践要求，进一步坚定信心、积极作为，推动党中央决策部署在理事会落 地落实。要稳妥审慎抓好基金投资运营。紧密跟踪国内外宏观经济和资本市场形势，科 ...

2025年，中国ETF市场迎来跨越式发展，规模与结构实现双重突破。 截至2025年12月15日，ETF总规模已从年初的约3.73万亿元激增至约5.74万亿元，年内规模增长超2万亿 元，增速超过53%。 在实现规模增长的同时，ETF市场内部结构也经历从"宽基独大"到"多点开花、多资产均衡" 的生态重 塑，行业竞争从"跑马圈地"转向 "精耕细作" 的发展新阶段。 业内人士认为，ETF市场竞争的核心已从早期的产品布局和费率比拼，全面升维至品牌、服务和生态构 建的综合实力较量。 ETF市场的量级跨越 2025年，ETF市场的规模发展一路提速。 ETF规模从年初的3.73万亿元，一路突破4万亿元、5万亿元大关，12月15日已达到约5.74万亿元，年内 增长已超2万亿元，增速超过53%。 回顾ETF发展的21年历史，自2004年12月份第一只ETF产品问世后，直到2020年10月份，ETF总规模历 时近16年突破第一个万亿元大关。此后，ETF进入加速发展期，2023年8月份，ETF总规模突破2万亿 元，第二个万亿元大关历时22个月；2024年9月份，ETF总规模突破3万亿元，第三个万亿元大关历时13 个月；2025年4月 ...

12月16日，当前市场对比特币ETF"表现不佳"的直观感受，在FXGT看来，更像是角色变化带来的错 觉。FXGT认为，ETF资金未能刷新去年的流入纪录，并不等同于吸引力下降，而是反映其功能正从价 格推动器转向风险缓冲器，这一变化对市场长期健康更为重要。 从数据层面看，市场给出"仅2%概率刷新纪录"的定价，ETF年度资金流与去年存在约110亿美元差距， 这些数字表明短期内难以复制启动初期的爆发式增长。但FXGT认为，这种差距并非负面信号，而是说 明ETF已从一次性配置工具，转变为常态化资产配置的一部分。 值得注意的是，在价格回落阶段，ETF资金重新转为净流入，交易量却同步下降。FXGT认为，这说明 市场参与者的行为正在改变：更多资金以配置为目的进入，而非短线博弈。这种结构，使比特币在整体 风险资产承压时，表现出更强的韧性。 进一步来看，比特币在87000至88000美元区间震荡整理，相较其他高波动资产更为稳健，而以太坊则承 受更明显的抛压。FXGT认为，这正体现了ETF在当前阶段的核心价值——吸收卖压、平滑波动，而不 是放大涨跌。 从年度视角出发，是否打破资金流入纪录已不再是衡量ETF成功与否的唯一标准。FXG ...

12月16日，在全球资产配置逻辑不断演变的背景下，Moneta Markets外汇认为，黄金在中长期内具备持 续跑赢美元资产和美国国债的潜力。随着市场对利率周期和货币环境的重新定价，黄金作为非收益型资 产的配置价值正在被重新审视，尤其在价格回调阶段，更容易吸引中长期资金布局。 从资产配置结构来看，维持较高比例的黄金配置，反映出机构投资者对传统固定收益资产吸引力下降的 判断。在通胀挂钩债券与公司债配置被明显削减的情况下，黄金仍保持稳定权重，显示其在多资产组合 中兼具防御与进攻属性。Moneta Markets外汇表示，同时，资产表现"扩散化"的趋势正在形成，不同市 场与不同资产类别轮动加快，黄金在其中扮演了重要角色。 展望未来，市场对金价的长期预期依然偏乐观。相关机构预计，随着利率逐步下行、货币政策趋于温 和，黄金价格有望在未来一年至数年内继续上探。围绕2026年的周期判断中，金价冲击更高水平被视为 基于宏观环境变化的合理推演。 综合来看，在美联储政策逐步向中性甚至偏宽松方向调整、实际利率仍处于高位但存在回落空间的环境 下，黄金的风险对冲与资产分散价值更加突出。Moneta Markets外汇表示，尤其是在股票 ...

Core Insights - The luxury real estate market in Shanghai has shown significant resilience and growth, with transactions of luxury properties priced over 10 million yuan increasing by 21% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, compared to a mere 5% increase in ordinary new homes [2][17] - The majority of this growth is concentrated in Shanghai, where 80% of luxury homes sold for over 50 million yuan are located, and 15 out of 19 properties sold for over 100 million yuan nationwide are also in Shanghai [2][17] - The luxury market is evolving, with some buyers viewing luxury homes as consumables rather than investments, while others are opting to rent instead of purchase, indicating a shift in buyer sentiment [2][19] Market Dynamics - The luxury market has seen a surge in demand, with high-profile projects like the "Cuihu Huating" selling out quickly, indicating a strong appetite among wealthy buyers [4][10] - New luxury developments are emerging in previously limited supply areas, with a notable increase in new luxury homes being marketed as "pre-sale" properties [6][8] - The introduction of a points-based lottery system for new home purchases has created a competitive environment, further driving demand for luxury properties [9][10] Buyer Behavior - Wealthy buyers are increasingly viewing luxury homes as a means of asset allocation, with many opting for larger units to accommodate family needs, reflecting changing lifestyle preferences [10][11] - The perception of luxury homes is shifting, with some buyers now considering them as depreciating assets rather than purely investment vehicles, leading to a more cautious approach in purchasing [22][48] - The market is witnessing a diversification of buyers, with a significant proportion of non-local buyers, particularly from Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces, becoming key players in the luxury segment [33] Supply and Pricing Trends - The supply of luxury homes is increasing, with a notable rise in projects priced above 10 million yuan, leading to a more competitive market environment [54] - The average price for high-end residential properties in Shanghai has reached record levels, with some areas seeing prices as high as 24.32 million yuan per square meter [17][39] - The traditional price premium of second-hand luxury homes over new builds is diminishing, as new luxury properties are now being offered at competitive prices [50][52] Developer Strategies - Developers are adapting to market changes by offering more flexible financing options and reducing entry barriers for buyers, indicating a shift in strategy to stimulate sales [52] - The competitive landscape among developers is intensifying, with major players like Greenland and China Overseas actively acquiring prime land parcels to bolster their luxury offerings [39][40] - The luxury market is becoming increasingly segmented, with a clear hierarchy emerging based on location and property features, influencing buyer preferences and pricing strategies [27][30]