市场同时密切关注伊朗持续升级的民众骚乱。德国总理默茨发表负面评论，正值各界评估伊朗政权崩溃 可能性及其对地缘政治和能源市场影响之际。这一局势正推动市场对黄金的避险需求。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 从技术面来看，黄金多头在二月份的下一上涨目标为突破4750美元这一强阻力位，并实现收盘价站稳其 上;空头短期下跌目标则是推动期货价格跌破4400美元这一关键支撑位。当前首个阻力位为今日创下的 历史最高价4644美元，其次是4675美元;首个支撑位为今日最低价4582.80美元，随后是4550美元。 当天公布的数据显示，美国12月年通胀率维持2.7%，与11月持平且符合预期。CPI报告显示，能源价格 因汽油降价有所回落，但食品价格仍处高位;按月计算，CPI上涨0.3%。剔除食品和能源的核心CPI月率 仅涨0.2%，低于0.3%的预期值，年率则保持在2.6%，为2021年3月以来最低水平。 芝加哥商业交易所集团(CME Group)宣布，因黄金、铂金和钯金期货价格大幅上涨且交易波动剧烈，将 调整其保证金设定方式。新规将基于"名义金额"而非固定美元金额来确定保证金，自周二收盘后生效， 旨在"对市场波动进行常规审查，确保足够 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and other precious metals have surged significantly, driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets and robust central bank purchases, continuing the bullish trend from 2025 into 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of early 2026, spot gold has risen nearly 7% to over $4,600, while spot silver has surged 23%, approaching $90 [1]. - Platinum has also seen a 15% increase this year, nearing historical peaks [1]. Group 2: Historical Context - The current price increases are built on remarkable annual gains from the previous year, with gold, platinum, and silver recording increases of 65%, 125%, and 145% respectively [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Activity - Central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, continue to increase their gold reserves, with China adding 860,000 ounces in 2025, bringing total reserves to 74.15 million ounces [6]. - The value of China's gold reserves rose from approximately $19.134 billion to about $34 billion due to last year's price increases [6]. - Other central banks, including those in Brazil, Finland, and Turkey, have also contributed to a rise in official gold purchases, pushing the total above long-term averages [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and State Street Bank note that high gold prices have not deterred central banks from increasing their gold holdings, indicating a persistent shift in reserve management from U.S. Treasuries to gold [9]. - The lower price threshold for gold is estimated at $4,000 per ounce, with the potential for prices to exceed $5,000 [9]. - As of October last year, gold accounted for 25.9% of global foreign exchange reserves, surpassing the proportion of U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996 [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to continue in the near term amid a volatile global environment [10].

1月14日 资讯分享 周二，由于美国通胀数据不及预期，以及持续的地缘政治和经济不确定性推动了避险需求，现货黄金再 创历史新高，但交易员获利了结导致黄金回吐日内全部涨幅，最终收跌0.26%，报4585.95美元/盎司； 现货白银触及89.12美元的历史高点后回落，最终收涨2.14%，报86.91美元/盎司。 ADP周度就业报告：截至2025年12月20日的四周里，私人部门雇主平均每周增加11750个就业岗位。 美联储穆萨莱姆：短期内进一步放松政策的理由不多；仍认为通胀风险将比预期更为持久。 伊朗局势——①欧盟正在商讨额外对伊制裁措施。②川普：已取消与伊朗的所有会晤，伊朗将"付出巨 大代价"。 因川普承诺对任何与伊朗做生意的国家征收25%的关税，市场担忧伊朗在动荡期间可能减少出口，国际 原油走高。WTI原油最终收涨2.11%，报61.09美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收涨1.79%，报65.44美元/桶。 美国CPI增速在12月保持稳定，核心CPI略低于预期。川普称赞通胀数据，称鲍威尔应该大幅降息。美 联储传声筒：12月CPI不太可能改变当前的观望态度。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective surge in non-ferrous metal stocks, with notable gains including Xianglu Tungsten Industry hitting the daily limit, Hunan Silver rising over 9%, and Antai Technology increasing by over 8% [1] - Several companies, including Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, Hailiang Co., and Antai Technology, reached historical highs in their stock prices [1] - The rise in precious metal prices, including tin and silver, is attributed to increasing market expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S. and a rise in safe-haven demand [1] Group 2 - The LME tin price surpassed $51,000, reaching a record high, while spot silver rose to $89.48 per ounce, also a new record [1] - The market is experiencing divided expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with some investors anticipating two or three cuts this year [2] - Geopolitical risks remain high, particularly concerning potential U.S. intervention in Iran's political situation, which has heightened market concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence [2] Group 3 - Notable stock performances include Xianglu Aluminum with a 10.03% increase, Hunan Riyin at 9.20%, and Antai Technology at 8.45%, with total market capitalizations of 5.742 billion, 27.8 billion, and 32.2 billion respectively [3] - Year-to-date performance shows significant gains for many companies, with Hunan Riyin up 42.34% and Antai Technology up 46.03% [3] - Other companies such as Hailiang Co. and Xiyang Mining also reported substantial increases, contributing to the overall positive trend in the non-ferrous metals sector [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective rise in non-ferrous metal stocks, with notable gains including Xianglu Tungsten reaching the daily limit, Hunan Silver up over 9%, and Antai Technology increasing by over 8% [1] - Several companies, including Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, Hailiang Co., Antai Technology, and Jiangxi Copper, reached historical highs in stock prices [1] - The surge in precious metal prices, including tin futures surpassing 410,000 and LME tin prices exceeding $51,000, is attributed to increasing expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. and rising safe-haven demand [1] Group 2 - U.S. inflation data for December indicates a potential easing of price pressures, leading to mixed expectations among investors regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with some anticipating two or three cuts this year [2] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased due to a criminal investigation into Chairman Powell's June testimony, alongside ongoing geopolitical risks related to potential U.S. intervention in Iran [2] Group 3 - Specific stock performance data shows significant percentage increases for various companies, with Xianglu Aluminum up 10.03%, Hunan Silver up 9.20%, and Antai Technology up 8.45%, among others [3] - The total market capitalization for these companies varies, with Hunan Silver at 27.8 billion and Jiangxi Copper at 206.8 billion, reflecting their market positions and year-to-date performance [3]

Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 99.237, while spot silver opened at $86.90/oz and is currently around $88.69/oz, indicating a rise in silver prices due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1] - On January 13, the dollar index rose by 0.29% to close at 99.186, while spot silver increased by 2.06% to $86.91/oz, reaching a historical high of $89.12 before retreating [1] - The upcoming economic data to watch includes the US November retail sales month-on-month and the November PPI data [1] Group 2 - As of January 13, silver ETF holdings decreased by 26.79 tons to 16,321.16 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The US CPI growth rate remained stable in December, with core CPI slightly below expectations, leading to comments from Trump advocating for significant interest rate cuts by Powell [2] - The ADP weekly employment report indicates that private sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week over the four weeks ending December 20, 2025 [3] Group 3 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange plans to launch a 100-ounce silver futures contract on February 9 [5] - The silver market experienced fluctuations, opening at $85.362, hitting a low of $83.348, and then rising to a high of $89.124 before closing at $86.891 [6]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.44%报 4594.40 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 2.08%报 86.86 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金上涨 0.14%报 1031.0 元/克，沪银上涨 4.14%报 21943.0 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 1 月 13 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 3.43 吨， 当前持仓量为 1074.23 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 26.79 吨，当前持仓量为 16321.16 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 2.8%，维持利率不 | | | | | 变的概率为 97.2%。到 3 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 26.8%，维持利率不变的概 率为 72.5%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 0.7 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US December CPI unexpectedly cooled, leading traders to increase bets on a Fed rate cut in April, with the dollar index initially dropping before recovering, closing up 0.29% at 99.18 [3] - The core CPI was slightly below expectations, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.1840% and the 2-year yield at 3.5450% [3][10] - Spot gold reached a historical high but ended down 0.26% at $4585.95 per ounce, while silver rose 2.14% to $86.91 per ounce after hitting a peak of $89.12 [3][7] Group 2: Commodity Markets - WTI crude oil rose 0.29% to $61.09 per barrel, and Brent crude increased by 1.79% to $65.44 per barrel, influenced by concerns over reduced Iranian exports amid geopolitical tensions [4] - LME copper inventories fell by 22% to a six-month low, indicating potential supply constraints [13] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index opened over 300 points higher but closed up only 0.9% at 26848.47, with significant trading volume of HKD 315.19 billion [5] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.64% and the Shenzhen Component down 1.37%, with total trading volume exceeding 3.6 trillion [6] - Notable stock movements included Alibaba up 3.63%, WuXi AppTec up 8.3%, and Pinduoduo down 5.4% [5][6]

中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 消息面，1月13日盘中，伦敦金现突破4600美元/盎司大关。 申万宏源证券指出，美国打击委内瑞拉等地缘事件刺激避险需求，对金价形成支撑。长期来看，货币信 用格局重塑持续，美国财政赤字率提升背景下，央行购金成为长期趋势，叠加我国黄金储备仍偏低，金 价中枢有望持续上行。此外，降息后实际利率下行将吸引黄金ETF资金流入，当前贵金属板块估值具备 修复动力。 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have surged, breaking the historical $4600 per ounce mark, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and Federal Reserve policy fluctuations [1][3] - The price of gold has increased over 64% in the past year, marking its best annual performance since 1979, attributed to a low interest rate environment and heightened demand for safe-haven assets [3] - The criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has intensified concerns about the Fed's independence, contributing to the decline of the US dollar index by 0.23% to 98.90 [3][4] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the US response to protests in Iran and actions against Venezuela, have created a highly unstable global environment, further driving investment into gold [4] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated policy path, with expectations of two rate cuts later in the year, is expected to support gold demand [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices reached a new high of $4630, indicating strong bullish momentum, although short-term market volatility may increase [6] - Traders are advised to monitor support levels around $4520 and $4500, with resistance near $4600 and $4630 [7] - Suggested trading strategies include light long positions near $4520 with a stop loss at $4510 and targets around $4550/$4590, as well as short positions near $4595 with a stop loss at $4603 and targets around $4560/$4530 [7]