黄金价格突破新高，反映出宏观面多重压力叠加——美国政府停摆风险、持续的地缘政治摩擦，以及美联储独立性面临的威胁。 周二，由于投资者担心美国政府可能关门导致美元走弱，贵金属价格飙升。现货黄金一度将历史新高刷新至3870美元左右，随后因投资者获利了结持续下 挫，回落至3800美元/盎司下方，较日高低70美元以上，日内跌近1%。 隔夜特朗普与国会民主党领袖会面，但未就临时拨款法案达成共识。投资者担忧政府资金断裂可能导致非农就业报告乃至消费者价格指数（CPI）延迟发 布，避险需求因此上升。美国国债价格在周一的买盘推动后保持坚挺，与此同时美元走软。 Fxstreet分析师Jasper Osita表示，尽管基本面依然支撑金价，但技术指标却呈现出不同的景象。黄金走势依然看涨，但4小时RSI指标显示看跌背离，表明在 过去10天上涨超过5%、过去五周上涨超过15%之后，黄金上涨趋势可能正在减弱。 尽管如此，从4小时图来看，金价在3825-3835美元区间形成了公允价值缺口，目前该缺口有望成为进一步上涨的潜在跳板。如果金价回落至该区域并找到支 撑，买家可能会坚定地再次入场。 反之，若此处未能吸引强劲买家，金价将面临回调的风险。 ...

【导读】现货黄金突破3850关口，再创历史新高 中国基金报记者 张燕北 9月30日，伦敦现货黄金价格盘中再创历史新高，成功突破3850 美元/盎司 关口。公募业内 认为，本轮金价上涨主要由美联储进入降息通道、外围避险情绪浓厚等因素推动，中长期金 价仍有坚实支撑，但近期应控制仓位 以 防范波动风险。 美元走弱和外围避险情绪 推动金价续刷新高 值得注意的是，华夏基金认为，黄金的定价逻辑正在发生深层次变化。过去，金价更多与美 元利率、通胀预期直接挂钩。而如今，在去美元化趋势、全球央行购金需求、货币信用体系 重构等因素的推动下，黄金逐渐成为新一轮金融秩序博弈中的核心资产。 金价走势中长期仍有坚实支撑 可以考虑逢回调布局 中长期而言，基金公司仍然普遍看好黄金的后市走势和配置价值。 9月30日，伦敦现货黄金价格盘中最高达到每盎司38 71.73 美元，突破了昨日3834.12美 元/盎司的前高，再创历史新高。 实际上，这轮 金价 上涨 行情 已经 持续 了7天，不断突破前高，此前的高点是9月23日盘中 达到 的 每盎司3791.08美元。 对于黄金短时间内不断 刷新历史纪录 的原因，华夏基金分析称，一方面，美联储进入降息 ...

当前，"去美元化"趋势、各国央行增持黄金储备以及地缘格局碎片化等宏观叙事逻辑持续发酵。展望后 市，根据CMEFedWatch工具预测，年内大概率还将迎来两次降息；技术面上，此前一轮上涨虽遇前期 压力位出现回调，但未跌破关键支撑位，且各项指标已逐步回归常态区间，表明金价上方仍存上行空 间。 今日周二（9月30日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于880附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报878.38元/ 克，涨幅1.94%，最高触及880.00元/克，最低下探865.08元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 自9月份起，黄金市场呈现出震荡上行的态势。截至9月26日收盘数据显示，国内现货市场上纯度为 99.99%的黄金价格已达852.02元/克，较月初累计攀升58.86元/克，对应涨幅达7.42%。此番涨势背后， 宏观因素支撑显著：就业数据走弱与温和通胀环境促使美联储按预期实施25个基点的降息举措，有效释 放了市场流动性；与此同时，全球债务规模的持续扩张加剧了市场对于偿债能力的担忧情绪，加之特朗 普政府加征关税政策及中东、欧洲地区地缘政治紧张局势升级，共同催生了强烈的避 ...

新华财经上海9月30日电（葛佳明） 由于美国政府可能"关门"，避险需求成为市场主旋律，黄金和白银 日前再度强势上涨，现货黄金价格突破每盎司3850美元，创下历史新高，现货白银触及每盎司47美元， 续刷2011年5月来新高，今年迄今涨幅超过62%。 方正中期期货研究院宏观及贵金属市场分析师梁海宽表示，本轮黄金白银牛市的上涨逻辑已脱离之前20 年的传统框架，从金属属性驱动转向货币属性驱动。 "全球债务的高企以及美元信仰的动摇，使得金银成为对冲信用货币体系风险的终极选择。"梁海宽认 为，年初以来全球主要经济体长端国债收益率均出现不受控制的上行，全球债务风险已来到临近点，金 银的货币属性均开始显现。 贵金属后续仍有上行空间 尽管美国通胀前景仍面临不确定性，但美国货币政策逐步宽松的趋势或已确立，叠加市场对2026年美联 储主席鲍威尔任期结束后联储可能更宽松的预期，长期对美国经济滞胀的隐忧仍在，黄金具有长期配置 价值。 2025年第三季度，贵金属延续着强劲上行动能，金价与银价呈现齐头并进的上涨态势。多位分析师均表 示，对于四季度而言，在货币体系多元化的大背景下，黄金作为避险资产和价值储藏手段的重要性将进 一步提升。 金银 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent discussions around gold prices indicate a strong upward trend, with concerns about whether gold has reached a high point. Factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, declining real interest rates, and global central bank purchases of gold support a bullish outlook for gold [3]. Group 1: Historical Valuation and Real Interest Rates - From June 1995 to September 2025, COMEX gold prices have shown an overall upward trend, particularly accelerating after 2020. However, when adjusted for inflation, the real price of gold has not significantly deviated from historical peaks in 1980, 2011, and 2020. This suggests that gold's purchasing power has not fully kept pace with nominal price increases due to inflation [5]. - The current decline in real interest rates, driven by the Federal Reserve's easing policies, supports an upward adjustment in gold's valuation [5]. Group 2: Gold as a Long-Term Asset - Gold is characterized as a "long-term upward-trending asset" when adjusted for inflation. The relationship between gold prices and real interest rates indicates that lower rates enhance gold's attractiveness as an investment [7][9]. Group 3: Currency Dynamics and Gold Prices - The inverse relationship between the US dollar index and gold prices has been noted, with a weakening dollar since 2025 enhancing gold's appeal. For domestic investors, fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate also play a crucial role in gold price movements, particularly during periods of RMB depreciation [10][11]. Group 4: Geopolitical Factors and Central Bank Purchases - Gold serves as a hedge during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, with historical events such as Middle Eastern conflicts and US-China trade tensions driving increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Central banks in emerging markets, including China, India, and Turkey, have been increasing their gold reserves, providing a significant support for gold prices [13][14]. Group 5: Fund Products and Investment Outlook - Various public funds invest in gold-related assets, including spot gold ETFs and funds tracking gold industry stocks. Despite gold prices being near historical highs at approximately $3,800 per ounce, the real price remains elevated compared to the past decade. While short-term risks may exist, the long-term investment rationale for gold remains strong due to declining real interest rates and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets [16].

今日周二（9月30日）亚盘时段，市场对避险资产的需求凸显，原因是美国政府可能在本周中段陷入停 摆。12月交割的黄金期货(现阶段高于现货金价格约30美元)盘中报3856.80美元/盎司，上涨48.00美元。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 今日，美国国会高层领导人齐聚白宫，与特朗普总统共商一项至关重要的短期支出法案相关事宜。此法 案亟待在既定截止日期前顺利获批，否则联邦政府将于周三陷入停摆困境。 在谈判桌上，民主党立场坚定，明确要求法案纳入延长医疗补贴及扭转医疗领域预算削减的相关条款； 反观共和党一方，则主张将此类议题搁置至政府停摆危机解除之后再行商议。值得注意的是，该短期支 出法案所能覆盖的资金供应期限仅至11月中旬，且必须在10月1日这一关键节点前完成立法程序。于参 议院而言，共和党若要推动法案成功闯关，势必需要争取到部分民主党议员的支持票。 受政府可能停摆所带来的不确定性阴云笼罩，本周美元走势承压开局。更为引人关注的是，特朗普一反 数十年来的常规做法——以往政府停摆期间，停薪留职的联邦雇员往往能在资金到位后重返工作岗位 ——他公然威胁称，一旦政府陷入停摆状态，将永久解雇那些被认定为"非必要 ...

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) jumping over 3%, reaching a four-year high, and attracting a net subscription of 14.4 million units [1] - Key stocks such as Xiyegongsi and Huaxi Youse hit the daily limit, while Huayou Cobalt rose over 9%, and Jiangxi Copper and Baiyin Youse increased by more than 7% [1] - Major stocks like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum rose over 4% [1] Group 2 - COMEX gold prices have surpassed $3,876 per ounce, setting a new historical high, with expectations of further upward movement due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [3] - Factors supporting precious metal prices include increased demand for safe-haven assets, central bank gold purchases, and inflation expectations [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is seen as a key "slow variable" benefiting the entire non-ferrous sector, with different metals responding at different paces [4] Group 3 - The macro drivers for gold include expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical disturbances increasing safe-haven demand, and central bank accumulation [5] - Strategic metals like rare earths, tungsten, and tin are expected to benefit from global geopolitical dynamics [5] - The "anti-involution" policy in China is expected to enhance production efficiency and improve market expectations, positively impacting metal prices [4][5] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its connected funds track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, with weightings of copper (25.3%), aluminum (14.2%), rare earths (13.8%), gold (13.6%), and lithium (7.6%), providing a diversified investment approach [6] - The index has shown varied performance over the past five years, with significant fluctuations in returns, indicating the importance of diversification in investment strategies [8]

日线图上，黄金在上周成功站上3700美元关口，本周一继续突破3800美元关口，表现依旧强势。黄金下方支撑，可以关注3800美 元整数位置，日内金价冲高，一度这里遇阻，突破后回踩3800美元继续上涨，其次关注3788美元，早间金价上涨，在这里遇阻 后，向上突破回踩继续上涨；黄金上方压力，可以关注日内高点，也是历史高点3819美元，同时也是目前日线布林带上轨附近， 金价在站稳3800美元后，若再创历史新高，则顺势上看，上不猜顶。5日均线与MACD指标金叉向上，KDJ与RSI指标超买区域金 叉向上，短期技术面显示多方继续保持优势。 黄金日内参考：市场对美联储进一步宽松的预期，以及美国政府停摆的风险强化避险需求，支撑黄金价格继续上涨，再创历史新 高。操作上建议震荡思路对待，下方支撑可以关注3800和3788美元，上方压力关注3819美元，向上突破则顺势上看，上不猜顶。 Wolfinance星级分析师黄力晨认为，黄金连续第七周上涨，连续五周刷新历史新高，短期表现十分强势，降息预期与避险需求，成 为支撑黄金攀高的重要因素。具体来看，此前美联储如期降息25个基点，虽然美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话，让市场将本次降息解读 为预防式降 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on September 29 saw more declines than increases, with the main contract for silver rising over 3% and gold and apple contracts increasing over 1% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1465.58 points, up 1.21 points or 0.08% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - International gold prices surpassed $3800 per ounce and silver prices exceeded $47 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and safe-haven demand [2] - Both gold and silver have seen year-to-date increases of over 40%, making them standout assets amid monetary policy easing and geopolitical uncertainties [2] Group 3: Apple Market Dynamics - The apple contract reached a six-month high, supported by strong consumer demand and stable prices for quality goods, despite a slight decline in inventory turnover [3] - The expectation for higher opening prices for the new apple season also contributed to the positive market sentiment [3] Group 4: Black Metals Sector - The black metals sector continued to decline, with coking coal contracts dropping by 4.98%, reflecting a cooling market sentiment and nearing the end of downstream replenishment demand [4] - The overall fundamentals for black metals are expected to remain weak in the short term, with market participants awaiting further demand recovery post-holiday [4] Group 5: Industrial Silicon Market - The industrial silicon market remains oversupplied, with stable supply but no significant demand improvement, leading to a drop of 4.33% in the main contract [5] - The market sentiment has cooled, but prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, with a focus on inventory pressures in the fourth quarter [5]

贸易摩擦提升市场避险需求。 数据显示，受美国反复调整关税政策影响，全球经贸摩擦再次升温。 从综合指数看，7月全球经贸摩擦指数为110，处于高位。全球经贸摩擦措施涉及金额同比上升6.6%， 环比上升27.6%。 从国别指数看，在监测范围内的20个国家（地区）中，美国、欧盟和巴西的全球经贸摩擦指数位居前 三，美国的全球经贸摩擦措施涉及金额最多，连续13个月居首。 黄金屡创历史新高，现货黄金突破3800美元/盎司，沪金收盘报收866.52元/克，涨1.35%。 。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 目前在美国就业市场下行风险增加的情况下，美联储政策路径呈现"预期强化-独立性受挫"的双重特征 从而打压美元指数，同时欧美国家政治局势动荡使股市风险偏好下降从而增加机构投资者对贵金属避险 的配置需求带来价格不断抬升。美联储决议如期降息 25 个 BP 对于未来宽松步伐仍较谨慎需要基于数 据决策，本次市场解读偏中性消化后未来分歧或更剧烈使行情走势反复。短期美国政府"关门"和海外政 局动荡等风险升温，黄金维持高位震荡波动率或再次上升，单边择机逢低买入或买入虚值看涨期权代替 多头。 ...