Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent monetary policy decisions made by major central banks, highlighting the divergence in their approaches, which may lead to increased volatility in global financial markets and a new phase in economic dynamics [2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut in nine months [4]. - The Fed's decision reflects a cautious balance between employment and inflation goals, with indications of a cooling labor market and rising inflation levels [4]. - The updated dot plot suggests an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of the year, followed by 25 basis points cuts in each of the next two years [4]. Group 2: Bank of Canada - The Bank of Canada also cut its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, its first reduction in six months, following a cumulative decrease of 225 basis points since June 2024 [6]. - The decision was driven by a weakening economy, with a 1.5% decline in GDP and ongoing job market challenges, while inflation risks have diminished [6]. - The Bank will closely monitor export conditions and the overall economic impact of these trends [6]. Group 3: Bank of England - The Bank of England decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4%, pausing its previous rate cuts [8]. - The UK labor market is showing signs of slowdown, with inflation remaining high at 3.8% in August, expected to rise to around 4% in September [8]. - The Bank plans to reduce its holdings of UK government bonds by £70 billion over the next 12 months as part of its monetary policy adjustments [8]. Group 4: Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5%, while indicating potential future rate increases depending on economic and inflation forecasts [10]. - Japan's economy is gradually recovering, but short-term growth may be pressured by global economic slowdowns [10]. - Current inflation rates are between 2.5% and 2.9%, with expectations for gradual increases supported by improving economic conditions [10]. Group 5: Market Reactions - The decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan align with market expectations, indicating that the market has already priced in the anticipated rate cuts and policy stances [10].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market indices reached new historical highs, driven by market adaptation to White House policy uncertainties and ongoing optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has risen 33.75% since its low in April, with a year-to-date increase of 13.3% [2] - The Federal Reserve initiated a new round of interest rate cuts, which is providing support to the market [3] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley's strategy team, led by Mike Wilson, warns that if the Fed's rate cuts do not meet investor expectations, it could lead to market volatility [3] - Wilson believes the U.S. economy may not require aggressive rate cuts, suggesting that the current economic transition is moving towards an early recovery phase [4] - There are signs of pent-up demand in sectors that have experienced weak growth over the past few years, including real estate, short-cycle industries, consumer goods, transportation, and commodities [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - The Fed's current "easing shift" differs from conventional paths in past economic cycles, as the labor market has not deteriorated to a level necessitating significant rate cuts, and inflation remains above the 2% target [4] - There is a contradiction between the Fed's policy response and the market's demand for rapid rate cuts, posing short-term risks to the stock market [4] Group 4: Liquidity Concerns - The market faces risks if the Fed recognizes the economic shift from "rolling recession to recovery" and determines that large-scale rate cuts are unnecessary, which could disappoint the market [5] - Liquidity is gradually tightening as the Fed continues quantitative tightening while the U.S. Treasury issues a large volume of bonds [5] - Signs of liquidity pressure may first appear in the spread between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the federal funds rate, with the Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE index currently at 72.5, close to a four-year low [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the Bank of England's upcoming 12-month quantitative tightening (QT) plan starting in October, which will prioritize the sale of short- and medium-term UK government bonds [1] - Edward Allenby from Oxford Economics indicates that the Bank of England is focusing on short- and medium-term bonds due to more significant pressure signals in these markets compared to long-term bonds [1] - This strategy aims to effectively manage liquidity contraction while minimizing potential impacts on long-term interest rates and financial market stability, reflecting a cautious approach to normalizing monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently at 1.3461, down 0.05% from the previous close of 1.3468, following a pullback from an 11-week high of 1.3726 [1] - The 21-day simple moving average (SMA) is at 1.3524, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) remains above the 50 midline, suggesting that buyers may still expect this pullback to be short-term [1] - For a meaningful rebound, GBP/USD needs to close above the supply zone of 1.3600-1.3620 on the daily candlestick chart [1]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 9 月 22 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 虽然美元指数因美联储预计 2026 年之后大幅放缓降息步伐以及英国央行放 缓缩表步伐、日本央行按兵不动等信息而连续三个交易日回升，但市场乐观评估 特朗普政府压力下的美联储降息进程，伦敦黄金在 3630 美元/盎司附近企稳小幅 反弹。4 月下旬至 8 月份金价横盘震荡消化高估值压力，但美联储降息东风助推 金价于 9 月初突破阻力而开启新一轮上涨趋势，本轮涨势或延续至 2026 年春夏之 交，建议投资者继续持多头思路参与贵金属交易，空头套保者可适当 ...

市场正评估未来美联储降息节奏，密切关注本周多项经济数据；瑞士、瑞典和墨西哥等央行将公布利率决议。 上周国际市场风云变幻，各大央行成为市场焦点，除了美联储，发达经济体和新兴市场的央行也纷纷采取行动。加拿大、挪威和印度尼西亚央行宣布降息， 英国、日本和巴西央行则选择维持利率不变。上周，美股齐创新高，道指周涨1.05%，纳指周涨2.21%，标普500指数周涨1.22%。欧洲三大股指表现分化， 英国富时100指数周涨0.72%，德国DAX 30指数周跌0.25%，法国CAC 40指数周跌0.36%。国际金价刷新历史新高。 本周看点颇多，市场正评估未来美联储降息节奏，因此美国多项经济数据，包括个人消费支出（PCE）、采购经理人指数（PMI）及耐用品订单等数据将受 到密切关注。欧洲方面，欧元区和英国的初步采购经理人指数将让市场审视面临关税挑战下的地区经济运行状况。此外，瑞士、瑞典和墨西哥等央行将公布 利率决议。 美国重磅通胀指标出炉 最新公布的经济数据也加剧了市场担忧，美国就业市场有所疲软，同时由于未售出新房库存过剩，8月独栋住宅开工量跌至多年来的低点。 PVM石油咨询公司分析师瓦尔加（Tamas Varga）表示，油价 ...

Group 1: Japan's Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) initiated a slow reduction of its ETF and REITs holdings, planning to sell ¥3.3 trillion and ¥50 billion annually, respectively, while holding ¥37.2 trillion and ¥655 billion as of August[2][12] - Japan's overall CPI and core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) in August were 2.7% and 3.3%, down by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points respectively, indicating a potential peak in inflation[2][15] - Concerns about trade environment, corporate profits, and consumer confidence suggest a low probability of the BoJ raising interest rates within the year[2][15] Group 2: UK Monetary Policy - The Bank of England (BoE) paused interest rate cuts, maintaining a rate of 4.0%, after previously cutting rates by 75 basis points in 2023[3][18] - UK inflation rates for August were 3.7% and 3.8% for overall and core CPI, respectively, remaining high despite a 0.2 percentage point decline from July[3][18] - The BoE reduced its planned bond sales from £100 billion to £70 billion over the next 12 months to avoid rapid increases in the interest rate curve[3][23] Group 3: US Economic Indicators - US retail sales in August grew by 5.0% year-on-year, a significant recovery of 0.9 percentage points from July, marking the highest growth since April[4][24] - Initial jobless claims in the second week of September fell to 231,000, down by 33,000 from the previous week, indicating a potential recovery in the labor market[4][28] - The recent tax cuts may sustain high consumer demand in the coming months, potentially boosting the labor market[4][29]

Core Viewpoint - The market is assessing the future pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, closely monitoring various economic data this week, while central banks in Switzerland, Sweden, and Mexico are set to announce their interest rate decisions [1][3]. Economic Data and Market Performance - Major central banks, including those in Canada, Norway, and Indonesia, have announced interest rate cuts, while the UK, Japan, and Brazil have opted to maintain their rates [1]. - U.S. stock markets reached new highs, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, Nasdaq up 2.21%, and S&P 500 up 1.22% for the week [1]. - European stock indices showed mixed performance, with the UK FTSE 100 up 0.72%, while Germany's DAX 30 and France's CAC 40 fell by 0.25% and 0.36%, respectively [1]. - International gold prices hit a historical high [1]. Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key U.S. economic data to be released includes Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), and durable goods orders, which are expected to influence the assessment of future interest rate cuts [1][3]. - In Europe, preliminary PMI data for the Eurozone and the UK will provide insights into the economic conditions amid tariff challenges [1]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The PCE, a crucial inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve, is set to be released this week, with investors evaluating the impact of tariffs on inflation [3]. - Recent data indicates a deterioration in the U.S. labor market, prompting attention to further evidence of economic slowdown [3]. Treasury Auctions - The U.S. Treasury plans to auction $69 billion in various maturities of government bonds this week, with market attention on the auction outcomes as the debt ceiling approaches [4]. Corporate Earnings - Upcoming earnings reports from companies such as Micron Technology, Costco, and Accenture are anticipated this week [5]. Oil and Gold Market Trends - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with WTI crude down 0.02% to $62.68 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.46% to $66.68 per barrel, amid concerns over global energy supply and demand [6]. - Gold prices have shown resilience, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.61% to $3,671.50 per ounce, marking the fifth consecutive week of gains [6][7]. European Economic Outlook - European economic data this week will focus on confidence indicators, with expectations of slight improvements in Germany's manufacturing and services PMI, while France may see a decline due to political instability [8]. - The European Central Bank's recent optimistic tone has reinforced expectations for a pause in the easing cycle [8][9].

Group 1: UK Economic Situation - UK public sector net borrowing surged to £18 billion in August, the highest level for the month in five years, significantly exceeding economists' expectations of £12.8 billion [1] - The increase in borrowing is expected to pressure the UK government to consider cuts in public spending or tax increases in the upcoming autumn budget [1] - The yield on 30-year UK government bonds rose over 1% to nearly 5.50%, reflecting heightened concerns over fiscal stability [1] Group 2: Retail Sales and Economic Indicators - UK retail sales data for August exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, surpassing forecasts of 0.4% and 0.6% respectively [1] - The strong performance in retail sales was driven by robust demand from online retailers and textile, clothing, and footwear stores [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Bank of England (BoE) maintained its interest rate at 4% with a 7-2 majority vote, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid persistent inflation [2] - The BoE confirmed that inflation pressures are expected to peak around 4% in September [2] - The Federal Reserve has indicated plans to lower interest rates two more times this year, following a recent cut of 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [4] Group 4: Currency Market Dynamics - The British pound faced significant selling pressure, dropping to around 1.3500 against the US dollar, influenced by a stronger dollar and the recent retail sales data [4][6] - The pound's decline was exacerbated by a breakdown below the 20-day exponential moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6] - Key support for GBP/USD is at the August 1 low of 1.3140, while resistance is at the July 1 high of 1.3800 [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with potential for price increases if downstream demand recovers more than expected from late September to October. The black - metal sector is supported by the approaching peak season and pre - National Day stockpiling [4]. - For coking coal and coke, short - term volatility adjustment is expected, and a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The upside potential is limited by steel demand and profit [10][12]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, despite potential recovery in domestic manufacturing steel demand in September [13]. - Ferroalloys are expected to trade at the bottom, with silicon iron and manganese silicon both showing bottom - oscillating trends [16][17]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In August 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a 12.3% year - on - year increase; refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a 2.5% increase; washing - machine production was 10.132 million units, a 1.6% decrease; and color - TV production was 18.016 million units, a 3.2% decrease. As of September 18, the total volume of overhauled blast furnaces in 16 sample steel mills in Shanxi was 2010m³, with an overhaul volume ratio of 4.7%, and the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 12.3% higher than the same period last year [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shanghai, the price of rebar was 3240 yuan (- 20), and in Beijing, it was 3170 yuan (- 20). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3420 yuan (-), and in Tianjin, it was 3340 yuan (-) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was volatile at night. Iron - water production increased slightly this week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. Due to losses, EAF production decreased, and long - process production lines also switched production. Rebar production decreased significantly, while other varieties continued to increase. Demand is in the off - season, and the reduction in rebar production led to inventory depletion, while other varieties accumulated inventory. Steel demand is expected to recover slightly next week, and the black - metal sector is supported by the peak season and pre - holiday stockpiling [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel prices will be volatile and bullish. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options on RB01 [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.7%, a 1.9% increase from the previous week. The daily output of raw coal was 1.9 million tons, a 44,000 - ton increase. The raw - coal inventory was 4.7 million tons, a 32,000 - ton decrease. The daily output of clean coal was 761,000 tons, a 33,000 - ton increase, and the clean - coal inventory was 2.328 million tons, a 217,000 - ton decrease. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, a 0.15 - percentage - point increase from last week [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Coking coal and coke were volatile at night. The coking coal spot market sentiment is good, with prices rising and auction flow rates decreasing. Downstream enterprises will stockpile raw materials before the National Day, supporting spot prices. The upside potential is limited by steel demand and profit [10][12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Short - term volatility adjustment, mid - term buying on dips. Arbitrage: Enter the long 1 - 5 spread of coking coal on dips. Options: Hold. Futures - cash: Hold [12]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and reduced the quantitative tightening scale. On September 18, the national main - port iron - ore trading volume was 974,000 tons, a 23% decrease from the previous day [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore was narrowly volatile at night. In the third quarter, global iron - ore shipments increased significantly, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand remained high. Iron - ore prices may face pressure at high levels [13]. - **Trading Strategies**: Not fully provided in the report, but the analyst's information is given [15]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 18th, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore (Mn36.02%) at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton - degree. Jupiter announced the October 2025 manganese - ore shipping price to China [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Silicon - iron spot prices were stable on the 18th. Supply rumors were false, and supply remained high. Demand was supported by steel production. Manganese - silicon spot prices were stable, with alloy - factory production increasing slightly. Demand was affected by the decline in rebar production, but cost was supported by high - priced manganese ore [16]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Bottom - oscillating. Arbitrage: Hold. Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations on rallies [17][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Fed's dot - plot in September shows 2 rate cuts by the end of 2025 and only 1 in 2026, while the market expects 5 rate cuts from Oct/Dec 2025 and Mar/Jun/Sep 2026, indicating the Fed's future rate - cut path is hawkish. Considering Trump's pressure, geopolitical risks like the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices may be weak first and then strong [1]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 824.53 yuan/gram, down 5.72 yuan from the previous day and 5.81 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 49,462, and the holding volume was 207,592 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 9,811 yuan/ten - gram, down 65 yuan from the previous day and 223 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 457,876, and the holding volume was 395,854 [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price was 3,678.20 dollars/ounce, down 2.20 dollars from the previous day and 16.40 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 176,290, and the holding volume was 388,882 [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price was 42.10 dollars/ounce, up 0.11 dollars from the previous day and 0.45 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 17,105, and the holding volume was 131,335 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest drop in nearly four years [1]. - Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasuries reached a new high in July. Japan's holdings hit a new high in over a year, the UK increased its holdings by over $40 billion for two consecutive months, China's holdings were at a 16 - year low, and Canada's holdings decreased by $57.1 billion [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then mainly layout long positions. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,750 - 3,840. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 840 - 850. For London silver, focus on the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 43 - 46. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,300 - 10,500 [1].