Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices experienced a significant drop due to easing concerns over international trade tensions following a scheduled meeting between Chinese and U.S. officials [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain interest rates, with a probability of 98.1% for no change, which is a key factor influencing gold prices [3] - Recent economic data, including a slowdown in core PCE inflation to 2.6% and strong employment figures, have alleviated market worries about inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy [3] Group 2 - Gold prices showed a significant upward trend earlier in the week but are now facing a necessary correction after a 200-point increase, with the upcoming interest rate decision expected to influence future movements [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3436, while support levels are noted at 3377 and 3350, indicating potential trading strategies based on these price points [5] - The analysis suggests a cautious approach to trading, recommending short positions at current prices with a focus on testing support levels [5]

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high of $140.5 billion in March, increasing by 14.0% from the revised $123.2 billion in February, primarily due to increased imports before tariff hikes [1] - For the first quarter, the trade deficit expanded significantly, contributing to a negative GDP growth for the first time in three years [1] Trade Deficit and Import/Export Data - In March, the trade deficit for goods and services was $140.5 billion, up $17.3 billion from February, marking a 14.0% increase [1] - Exports in March totaled $278.5 billion, a slight increase of $0.5 billion or 0.2% from February, while imports rose to $419.0 billion, an increase of $17.8 billion or 4.4% [1] - Year-to-date through March, the trade deficit increased by $1.896 billion or 92.6% compared to the same period in 2024, with exports up by $411 million (5.2%) and imports up by $2.307 billion (23.3%) [1] Average Trade Data - For the three months ending in March, the average trade deficit rose by $14.1 billion to $131.4 billion, with average exports increasing by $4.0 billion to $275.7 billion and average imports increasing by $18.1 billion to $407.1 billion [1] Detailed Breakdown of Goods and Services - In March, goods exports increased by $1.3 billion to $183.2 billion, with notable growth in industrial supplies, natural gas, non-monetary gold, and automobiles, while capital goods saw a decline [3] - Services exports decreased by $0.9 million to $95.2 billion, with a significant drop in travel services, although transportation and financial services showed mixed results [3] - Goods imports rose by $17.8 billion to $346.8 billion, driven by increases in consumer goods and capital goods, while industrial supplies and non-monetary gold saw declines [3] - Services imports decreased slightly by $0.1 million to $72.2 billion, with varying changes in travel and transportation services [4] Actual Trade Data - In March, the actual goods trade deficit increased by $14.0 billion or 10.2% to $150.9 billion, with actual goods exports rising by $2.4 billion (1.6%) to $149.7 billion and actual goods imports increasing by $16.4 billion (5.8%) to $300.6 billion [4] Trade Partner Dynamics - In March, the U.S. had trade surpluses with countries like the Netherlands and regions in South America and Central America, while experiencing trade deficits with the EU and Ireland, with increased deficits noted with Ireland and France, and a decrease with Switzerland [4]

Fundamental Analysis - The silver market is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations around 33.11, with the U.S. services sector showing a rebound in April, while inflationary pressures from tariffs are increasing [1] - The ISM survey indicates that the non-manufacturing PMI rose from 50.8 in March to 51.6 in April, contrary to economists' expectations of a drop to 50.2, suggesting preemptive purchasing by businesses and households ahead of tariff implementations [1] - The new orders index in the ISM survey increased from 50.4 in March to 52.3 in April, indicating stronger demand [1] Market Sentiment - The market is cautious with gold prices holding gains, suggesting strong support from safe-haven buying and dip buying, while investors should be wary of potential further increases in gold prices [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, but uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies casts a shadow over economic prospects [2] - Gold has seen a significant increase of over 26% this year, often performing well in low-interest-rate environments [2] Technical Analysis - The silver market is currently in a price consolidation phase, with support levels around 32.05 and resistance at 33.00 [6] - The MACD indicator shows a downward trend, indicating a cautious trading environment with reduced market activity [6] - Suggested trading strategy includes entering short positions near 32.70 with a stop loss at 33.00 and a take profit target between 32.00 and 31.00 [6]

Fundamental Analysis - Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on overseas film production has raised global trade war concerns, increasing market uncertainty and driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The U.S. services sector showed signs of recovery in April, with the non-manufacturing PMI rising from 50.8 in March to 51.6, indicating positive growth [3] - However, the index measuring corporate payment prices surged to its highest level in over two years, driven by tariff impacts, leading to increased inflationary pressures [3] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's policy decision, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% [3] - Due to the ongoing effects of Trump's tariff policy, market expectations for a rate cut in June have dropped to 37%, with major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Barclays pushing back their rate cut predictions to July [3] Technical Analysis - The gold market exhibited a clear shift in momentum last week, initially experiencing a consolidation phase before a downward trend took hold [5] - A significant bullish reversal occurred on Monday, with gold prices rising sharply and closing with a large bullish candle, indicating a potential shift back to a bullish market [5] - Current technical indicators suggest that if gold can maintain support above the moving averages, an upward trend may continue; otherwise, a new round of adjustments could occur [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3353, 3370/3371, and 3386, while support levels are at 3305 and the critical zone of 3270-3260 [7][8]

Group 1 - The Eurozone's April Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) shows increasing inflation pressure, with core HICP rising to 2.7%, exceeding market expectations of 2.5% and the previous value of 2.4% [2] - Overall HICP year-on-year growth reached 2.2%, also surpassing the market forecast of 2.1%, indicating a steady upward trend in price levels [2] - Despite strong inflation data, market expectations regarding the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy remain cautious due to potential economic downturn risks from U.S. tariffs [2][3] Group 2 - The Governor of the Bank of Finland, Rehn, emphasized the need to consider all policy options, including negative interest rates, highlighting the delicate balance the ECB must maintain amid rising inflation and external risks [3] - ECB Vice President Gentiloni expressed confidence in achieving inflation targets, noting that factors like a strong euro and commodity price declines could suppress price increases [4] - Gentiloni also pointed out that uncertainty poses risks to economic development, while maintaining that the eurozone is not expected to fall into recession [4]

IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃：美国将面临通胀压力。 ...

Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The U.S. has refused to grant Japan a full exemption from "reciprocal tariffs" during recent trade negotiations, with only a consideration to lower specific tariffs by 14% [1][3] - India has proposed zero tariffs on certain quantities of steel, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals in trade talks with the U.S., aiming to expedite a bilateral trade agreement expected to be reached by fall [1][3] Group 2: Economic Data - The ISM reported that the U.S. services PMI for April was 51.6, indicating a return to expansion and significantly above the expected 50.2, following a previous value of 50.8 [5][6] - In April, 11 industries reported growth, with hospitality, wholesale trade, mining, and real estate performing the best, while 6 industries contracted [6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the positive services data, U.S. stock indices narrowed their losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.14% and the Nasdaq's decline reducing to 0.45% [8][9] - U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising close to 4.35% and the 2-year yield reaching a daily high of 3.8467% [9][10] Group 4: Inflation and Employment Indicators - The services employment index for April was recorded at 49, indicating a slowdown in employment but an improvement from the previous value of 46.2 [7] - The services price index reached 65.1, significantly above the expected 61.4, indicating rising inflationary pressures due to tariffs [6][7]

美国4月服务业增长加快，物价压力上升 金十数据5月5日讯，美国4月服务业增长加快，因订单增加，推动企业原材料和服务价格指数升至逾两 年最高水平，暗示关税导致通胀压力加大。美国供应管理协会（ISM）周一表示，其非制造业采购经理 人指数（PMI）从3月份的50.8上升至4月的51.6。接受路透社调查的经济学家此前预测，服务业PMI将 降至50.2。这项调查为4月份的坚实就业增长增添了一份保证，表明美国经济并未接近衰退，尽管第一 季度国内生产总值（GDP）出现收缩，由于企业试图避免特朗普的关税带来的价格上涨，导致大量进口 商品流入，这给美国经济带来了负担。企业和家庭赶在进口关税生效之前购买商品的举措，可能是上月 服务业PMI上升的部分原因。ISM调查的新订单指数从3月的50.4升至52.3。库存也有所增加。 ...

Core Insights - The S&P Global Australia Composite PMI decreased from 51.6 to 51 in April 2025, indicating a slight reduction in the growth rate of Australia's private sector output, which has been increasing for seven consecutive months [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The number of new export orders in Australia's private sector declined again in April, but the overall growth rate of new orders reached its highest level since May 2022 [1] - The average input costs in Australia's private sector grew at the fastest pace since September of the previous year, leading businesses to raise selling prices to the highest level in nine months [2] - The services sector's business activity index fell from 51.6 to 51, marking the 15th consecutive month above the 50-point threshold, indicating ongoing expansion [2] Group 2: Business Sentiment and Employment - Despite the increase in business activity, the optimism level among private enterprises remains low, falling to a five-month low and below historical averages [1][2] - The services sector experienced a significant increase in new business and backlog of work, with the fastest growth in nearly three years, suggesting a positive outlook for the coming months [2] - Companies are continuing to hire at a steady pace to manage increased workloads, although concerns over trade uncertainties, particularly related to U.S. tariff measures, have dampened business sentiment [2]