今天（8月15日）上午，国务院新闻办召开新闻发布会，国家统计局公布了今年7月份经济数据。相关负责人表示， 7月份，我国加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设， 国民经济保持稳中有进发展态 势，生产需求持续增长，就业物价总体稳定，新质生产力培育壮大，高质量发展取得新成效。 具体来看，工业生产较快增长，装备制造业和高技术制造业发展较好。7月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.7%，环比增长0.38%。装备制造业增加值同比增长8.4%，高技术制造业增加值增长9.3%，分别快于全部规模以 上工业增加值2.7和3.6个百分点。 服务业较快增长，现代服务业增势良好。7月份，全国服务业生产指数同比增长5.8%。 固定资产投资继续扩大，制造业投资增长较快。1-7月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）288229亿元，同比增长 1.6%。 总的来看，7月份宏观政策发力显效，国民经济克服外部环境复杂多变和国内极端天气等不利影响，保持稳中有进发 展态势，展现出较强韧性和活力。 来源：央视新闻 责编：王璐璐 校对：彭其华 百万用户都在看 午后，突然跳水！发生了什么？ 最新！中美再次暂停实施24%关税90天 沸腾！ ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound manner with a downward shift in the price center and weak performance, and the focus should be on macro policies and downstream demand [2][4]. - The aluminum ingot market is in a off - season with a slight accumulation of inventory. The price is expected to be in a short - term range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining - end news [2][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a production impact of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills will also shut down, affecting daily production by about 16,200 tons [3][4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The price of finished products continued to decline, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [4]. Aluminum and Related Products - On August 10, the Shanxi Natural Resources Department adjusted the registration authority for some mineral transfers, which boosted the alumina futures. However, alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure [4]. - The impact on domestic bauxite supply from non - resumption of domestic mines is currently minimal, and the development of the news should be continuously monitored [4]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%, and it is expected to rise slightly in mid - August [4]. - In July, the total output of aluminum rods was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June. The operating rate was 53.2%, a 6.89% month - on - month and 6.7% year - on - year decrease. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in August [4]. - On August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from last Thursday [4].

稳中求进，稳是大局和基础，进是方向和动力。 今年以来，我国经济顶住压力、稳定增长，保持稳中有进、稳中向好发展态势。这个"进"，是稳扎稳打 的进，是担当作为的进，是狠抓落实的进。 7月23日，习近平总书记主持党外人士座谈会时强调："做好下半年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基 调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局"。 7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议指出："要正确把握形势，增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维，用好发展 机遇、潜力和优势，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头。" 深刻领会党中央关于经济形势的科学判断，进一步增强做好下半年经济工作的责任感使命感，各地区各 部门谋在当下、着眼长远，奋发有为、坚定前行。 形成"进"的新动能 新质生产力加快发展，消费市场热度提升 中共中央政治局会议指出："坚持以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，加快培育具有国际竞争力的新兴支 柱产业，推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合发展。" "十四五"时期，我国经济增量预计将超过35万亿元，每年对世界经济增长的贡献率保持在30%左 右。"十四五"前4年，我国经济增速平均达到5.5%。 "经济体量大，向前发展就需要更大的推动力。"习近平总书记作出重要论断 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported that as of the end of July, the broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.6% year-on-year. The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 indicates improved liquidity and efficiency in the financial system, supported by effective macroeconomic policies that bolster market confidence and align with the recovery of economic activities [1][2][6]. Group 1: Monetary Supply and Financing - As of July, the M1-M2 gap was 3.2%, down 6.9 percentage points from the peak in September of the previous year, indicating a trend of narrowing [2]. - The social financing scale increased by 1.13 trillion yuan in July, which is 361.3 billion yuan more than the previous year, aligning with economic growth expectations [5][6]. - The total social financing scale for the first seven months reached 23.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.12 trillion yuan year-on-year [6]. Group 2: Economic Policy and Growth - The macroeconomic policy has been more proactive this year, with various measures implemented to support sustained economic recovery. The GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reflecting a positive trend in major economic indicators [7]. - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, with a total of 13.3 trillion yuan issued in the first half of the year, including 7.89 trillion yuan in national bonds, which is a 36% increase year-on-year [7][8]. - The government’s leverage ratio increased by 9 percentage points to 65.3%, while the leverage ratios of non-financial enterprises and households remained relatively stable, indicating a strategic approach to managing debt levels [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The macroeconomic policies are expected to maintain continuity and stability in the second half of the year, focusing on stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations, which will facilitate smoother domestic economic circulation [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply of coking coal and coke is limited, making their prices prone to rise and hard to fall; the macro sentiment for glass and soda ash is positive, with soda ash prices rising significantly; steel prices are continuously rebounding, and ferroalloys are oscillating and consolidating [1][3] - Glass prices are expected to oscillate, and soda ash prices are also expected to oscillate; silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market showed a strong and oscillating trend yesterday. In the spot market, downstream procurement sentiment was cautious, with demand mainly for immediate needs [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market rose significantly yesterday. In the spot market, downstream transactions were stable, with a wait - and - see attitude [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: As market sentiment subsided, glass pricing returned to its fundamental logic. Currently, glass supply has not been effectively cleared, speculative demand has weakened, supply - demand remains relatively loose, and spot prices have declined. The previous premium in the futures market provided good opportunities for spot - futures arbitrage, and the rapid increase in registered glass warehouse receipts suppressed the price of the 09 contract. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies on glass supply and demand [1] - Soda Ash: The market is again worried that stricter environmental inspections in Qinghai will affect local soda ash production capacity elimination. Since Qinghai has a large proportion of soda ash production capacity, if affected, it will improve the supply - demand imbalance to some extent. Currently, soda ash production is continuously increasing with further growth expected, while consumption may weaken further, and inventory growth pressure is high. Therefore, soda ash prices are easily stimulated by news in the short term, but long - term supply - demand contradictions will still suppress prices [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: As steel prices continued to rebound, the silicon manganese futures market oscillated. In the spot market, the final pricing of mainstream steel procurement is still under negotiation. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it is 5820 - 5920 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures market oscillated and consolidated yesterday. In the spot market, the market is waiting for HBIS's pricing. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas is 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: As market sentiment stabilized, the futures market returned to the fundamentals of the commodity. Currently, silicon manganese production and demand have slightly increased, and manufacturers' inventory has decreased month - on - month, being at a medium level compared to the same period. The quotation of manganese ore to China has slightly increased, causing the cost of silicon manganese to rise slightly, which supports the spot price. The 09 contract still has a certain discount, which also supports the futures price. However, considering the continuous increase in manganese ore port inventory, the cost support is weak, and the silicon manganese industry has an obvious supply surplus. A certain degree of loss is needed to suppress production release. It is expected that silicon manganese prices will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support, silicon manganese inventory, and manganese ore shipments in the future [3] - Silicon Iron: Currently, silicon iron production has rapidly increased, demand has slightly increased, and manufacturers' inventory has increased month - on - month, being at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The increase in chemical coke prices has driven up the cost of silicon iron, which supports the spot price. However, considering that the futures market is slightly at a premium, and the silicon iron industry has an obvious supply surplus, a certain degree of loss is needed to suppress production release. It is expected that silicon iron prices will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to cost support and the impact of industrial policies on the black sector in the future [4] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Oscillating [5] - Silicon Iron: Oscillating [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile market, influenced more by macro - emotions, with an unchanged pattern of oversupply and limited upside space. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range and run relatively strongly in the near future, as the continuous stimulus of recent macro - policy news has boosted the stainless steel market to some extent, alleviating the previous pessimistic sentiment [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 12, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,020 yuan/ton and closed at 122,440 yuan/ton, a change of 0.67% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 96,355 lots, and the open interest was 73,889 lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly after a low - open in the night session, maintained a volatile trend after reaching a high and declined slightly. It maintained a strong volatile trend after the opening of the day session and closed with a positive line. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest continued to decrease slightly. The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had a strong intention to hold prices, and downstream iron plants' pressure on raw material procurement prices eased. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in August (Phase I) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium in August (Phase I) was mainly +24, flat month - on - month. The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 124,800 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the upward momentum slowed down slightly. Downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, and spot trading did not improve. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 20,693 (- 30.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,746 (+450) tons [1] Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly operate within the range for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 12, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 13,150 yuan/ton and closed at 13,200 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 130,429 lots, and the open interest was 143,674 lots. The main contract of stainless steel opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained a volatile trend, continued the trend after the opening of the day session, and closed with a positive line. The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased slightly. The market supply of stainless steel was in short supply, traders had a clear intention to hold prices, and with the continuous stimulus of macro - policy news, the spot price of stainless steel further increased. However, downstream buyers had a low acceptance of high - priced goods, resulting in intense market gaming and poor trading volume. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,250 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market was also 13,250 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium or discount was 90 to 290 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 921.5 yuan/nickel point [2] Strategy - Stainless steel price strategy: neutral for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]

下半年如何把握"稳"与"进" 编者按行至半山不停步，船到中流更奋楫。继7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议对下半年经济工作作出一系列重要部署后，7月31日召开的国务院常务会 议强调，要锚定全年发展目标任务，加力提升宏观政策效能，持续攻坚破解难题，下更大力气抓好党中央决策部署的贯彻落实。近期，国家发展改革委、 工业和信息化部、财政部、中国人民银行、人力资源和社会保障部、中国证监会等多部门召开年中会议，围绕各自领域作出具体部署。下半年经济工作有 哪些重点？如何着力抓好"四稳"？对此，中国经济时报邀请知名智库专家深入解读、把脉献策。 核心观点 下半年除了包括财政政策和货币政策在内的宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力外，还要加强与就业、产业、区域、贸易、环保、监管等政策的协调配合，打 好政策"组合拳"，发挥政策协同合力效应，促进政策从"最初一公里"到"最后一公里"的衔接畅通，为下半年巩固拓展经济回升向好势头创造条件。 ■余淼杰 今年下半年宏观政策的关键词是持续发力、适时加力。近日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性""强化宏观政策 取向一致性"，要求"宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力"。这无疑为下 ...

1. PVC, Caustic Soda Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For caustic soda, the overall demand has performed well recently, but there are expectations of increased supply in the future, and the rebound height is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the raw material procurement situation of alumina enterprises [5]. - For PVC, the supply - side pressure is increasing, downstream demand is difficult to improve, and the overall supply - demand pressure is large. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the positive impact of coking coal on PVC prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 2500 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda also remained unchanged at 2600 yuan/ton. The market price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 20 yuan/ton to 4910 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.4%. The price of SH2601 increased by 41 yuan/ton to 2636 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.6% [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate on August 8 was 89.1%, an increase of 1.7% compared to August 1. The total operating rate of PVC was 77.8%, an increase of 6.1% compared to August 1. The profit of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 150 yuan/ton to - 542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.3% [3]. - **Demand**: As of August 8, the operating rate of the alumina industry was 82.6%, an increase of 0.2% compared to August 1. The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry remained unchanged at 85%. The operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry was 59.3%, an increase of 0.7% compared to August 1. The operating rate of Longzhong sample PVC pipes decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 32.1%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 36.9% [4][5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, the factory - warehouse inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China was 219,000 tons, an increase of 2.0% compared to July 31. The total social inventory of PVC was 481,000 tons, an increase of 7.3% compared to July 31 [5]. 2. Polyolefin Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and the inventory accumulation expectation turns into a flat - inventory expectation. The downstream operating rate is at a low level, but there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season. The overall valuation is neutral, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to take profit on the short positions established at 7200 - 7300 around 7000 and continue to hold LP01 [10]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the closing price of L2601 was 7389 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% compared to August 11. The closing price of PP2509 was 7091 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to August 11 [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, PP maintenance decreased, and the supply pressure of PE also increased. The downstream operating rate of PP/PE was at a low level, and the social inventory was accumulating, but the downstream raw material inventory had been digested to a relatively low level [10]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data, the enterprise inventory of PE was 515,000 tons, an increase of 19.09% compared to the previous period; the enterprise inventory of PP was 587,000 tons, an increase of 3.95% compared to the previous period [10]. 3. Crude Oil Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Recent oil prices have shown a weak and volatile trend, driven by geopolitics and supply - demand fundamentals. The market is cautious. In the short term, oil prices will remain under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and expand the 10 - 11/12 month spreads [13]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 13, the price of Brent crude oil was 66.12 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.77% compared to August 12. The price of WTI crude oil was 63.16 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.02% compared to August 12 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The US Department of Energy has raised the expected supply surplus for this year to 1.7 million barrels per day, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, increasing supply pressure. Seasonal demand is weakening, and gasoline and diesel consumption is gradually declining, suppressing the upside of oil prices [13]. 4. Methanol Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The inland maintenance of methanol is expected to peak at the beginning of August. Currently, production is at a high level year - on - year. The port has significantly accumulated inventory this week, and the basis is stable. In August, imports are still relatively high, and downstream demand is weak due to low profits. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices in 01 contracts after the near - end contracts weaken significantly [19][20]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the closing price of MA2601 was 2496 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% compared to August 11. The closing price of MA2509 was 2391 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.08% compared to August 11 [17]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data, the enterprise inventory of methanol was 29.3688 (unit not specified), a decrease of 9.50% compared to the previous period; the port inventory was 925,000 tons, an increase of 14.48% compared to the previous period [18]. - **Operating Rate**: As of August 8, the operating rate of domestic upstream methanol enterprises was 73.17%, an increase of 2.28% compared to the previous period; the operating rate of downstream acetic acid enterprises was 89.8%, a decrease of 4.38% compared to the previous period [19]. 5. Urea Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The weak and volatile trend of the urea futures market is driven by the contradiction between supply and demand. High supply pressure persists, and industrial and agricultural demand is weak. Although exports are progressing in an orderly manner, they cannot offset the domestic supply - demand imbalance. It is expected that the market will fluctuate around the 1700 - 1720 range in the short term [27]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 11, the price of Shandong small - particle urea decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70% [27]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of domestic urea on August 8 was 192,100 tons, an increase of 1.05% compared to August 7. The weekly output of domestic urea was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 1.94% compared to August 1 [27]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the weekly inventory of domestic urea factories was 887,600 tons, a decrease of 3.24% compared to the previous period; the weekly inventory of domestic urea ports was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 2.03% compared to the previous period [27]. 6. Polyester Industry Chain Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase marginally in August, and the supply - demand situation is expected to weaken. The upward rebound drive is insufficient, but the downward space is also limited. PX11 is expected to fluctuate between 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton [30]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in August, but the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. The basis is running weakly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and conduct reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 at high prices [30]. - **MEG**: The short - term supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and it is recommended to lightly buy on dips around 4400 yuan/ton for EGO9 [30]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - term supply - demand drive is limited, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuations. It is recommended to operate within the range of 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton for PF10 [30]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The inventory is gradually decreasing, and the processing fee has support at the bottom. It is recommended to buy the processing fee on dips in the short term [30]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the price of POY150/48 was 6730 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The price of PX futures 2601 was 6712 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton compared to August 11 [30]. - **Operating Rate**: As of August 8, the operating rate of Asian PX was 73.6%, an increase of 0.2% compared to the previous period; the operating rate of PTA was 75.3%, an increase of 0.9% compared to the previous period [30]. 7. Pure Benzene - Styrene Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the third quarter, and the port inventory is expected to decrease in August, providing short - term support for prices. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the upward rebound space is limited. BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [34]. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply remains high, and there are expectations of some device maintenance. The downstream EPS has reduced production due to high inventory. The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. EB09 is expected to fluctuate between 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, and short - selling is recommended near the upper limit [34]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the price of CFR China pure benzene was 755 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.7% compared to August 11. The price of styrene in East China was 7370 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.0% compared to August 11 [34]. - **Inventory**: As of August 11, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu was 146,000 tons, a decrease of 10.4% compared to August 4; the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 148,800 tons, a decrease of 6.4% compared to August 4 [34]. - **Operating Rate**: As of August 8, the operating rate of Asian pure benzene was 76.0%, a decrease of 1.3% compared to August 1; the operating rate of styrene was 77.7%, a decrease of 1.2% compared to August 1 [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, the supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. However, short - term macro sentiment has pushed up nickel prices. For the stainless steel variety, the pressure of nickel - iron surplus still exists, and the retail price of ferro - chrome is strongly stable. The social inventory of stainless steel has been decreasing. Recent continuous stimulation from macro - policy news has boosted the stainless steel market, and it is expected that the stainless steel price will maintain a range - bound and slightly stronger operation in the near future [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,000 yuan/ton and closed at 122,130 yuan/ton, a 0.80% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 112,549 lots, and the open interest was 77,193 lots. The night session opened slightly lower, then rose slightly, fell back after reaching a high, and oscillated slightly. The day session continued to rise and stood firm at the high of 122,000 yuan in the afternoon, closing with a positive line. The trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [1] - **Nickel Ore**: In the Philippines, there was sporadic rainfall across the country, but the overall weather and sea conditions were better than the previous week. It is expected that in the third quarter, the impact of precipitation in the main producing areas will be limited, the shipping volume will remain at a high level, and the port arrival volume of ore will continue to increase with sufficient supply. Mines are mostly in the stage of fulfilling contracts and loading ships. In Indonesia, the weather has improved, the nickel ore supply is loose, and the price has slightly increased. The domestic trade benchmark price in August (Phase I) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium was mainly +24 in August (Phase I), unchanged from the previous period, with a range of +23 - 25 [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot transaction of refined nickel was generally average. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 20,723 (102.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,296 (- 936) tons [2] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - Others: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 13,045 yuan/ton and closed at 13,225 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 202,613 lots, and the open interest was 135,260 lots. The night session oscillated strongly, and the day session continued to rise, closing with a positive line. Both the trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous trading day [3] - **Spot**: Boosted by the sharp rise in the SS futures market, the confidence of spot traders to be bullish has been significantly enhanced, and the quotes have increased accordingly. Small - scale traders started to replenish stocks, and the daily orders were acceptable. However, affected by the rapid price increase, some agents temporarily stopped accepting futures orders. The price of stainless steel in the Wuxi market was 13,200 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,200 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 100 - 300 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 919.0 yuan/nickel point [3] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral - Others: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [5]

Core Viewpoint - In April, China's economy demonstrated resilience and stability in the face of external shocks and internal challenges, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies that fostered steady growth in production and demand, as well as overall employment stability [1]. Economic Indicators - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.1% year-on-year in April, while the service production index rose by 6.0% [2]. - The urban surveyed unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a stable employment situation [2]. Industrial Performance - The industrial sector maintained rapid growth, with the equipment manufacturing industry seeing a year-on-year increase of 9.8% in added value, contributing 55.9% to the growth of large-scale industry [2]. - The "Two New" policies and industrial upgrades have significantly supported this growth [2]. Foreign Trade - From January to April, China's total goods import and export volume increased by 2.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3]. - The diversification of foreign trade and expansion of trade with Belt and Road countries have been emphasized as key strategies [3]. Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.7% year-on-year from January to April, with service retail sales increasing by 5.1% [4]. - Significant growth was observed in the sales of home appliances, cultural office supplies, and furniture, with increases of 38.8%, 33.5%, and 26.9% respectively in April [4]. New Consumption Trends - Online retail and instant retail have gained popularity, with physical goods online retail sales increasing by 5.8% year-on-year from January to April, outpacing overall retail growth [5]. - The government aims to enhance consumer capacity and promote healthy economic development through targeted consumption initiatives [5]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 147,024 billion yuan, growing by 4.0% year-on-year, with high-tech industries showing significant investment growth [7]. - Notable increases in manufacturing sectors include a 38.9% rise in new energy vehicles and a 61.8% increase in lithium-ion battery production [7]. Industrial Development - The industrial sector is experiencing a trend towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, with new productive forces being cultivated [8]. - The government plans to continue expanding domestic demand and implementing policies to support industrial development and innovation [8].