Market News and Important Data - September delivery light - crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 81 cents to $64.35 a barrel, a 1.24% decline; October delivery Brent crude futures fell 75 cents to $66.89 a barrel, a 1.11% decline. SC crude oil's main contract closed down 1.23% at 498 yuan per barrel [1] - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price (OSP) of Arab light crude oil for September sales to Asia by $3.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, up from a $2.20 per - barrel premium in August. The OSP for September sales to the US is a $4.2 - per - barrel premium over the Oman/Dubai average, and for northwest Europe, it's a $3.35 - per - barrel premium [1] - As of the week ending August 4, the total refined - oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 19.072 million barrels, up 2.024 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventories increased by 145,000 barrels to 7.14 million barrels, medium distillate inventories rose by 159,000 barrels to 2.276 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel - oil inventories climbed by 1.72 million barrels to 9.656 million barrels [1] - US President Trump said there's a high possibility of holding a summit with Zelensky and Putin, with the location yet to be determined; he also mentioned that gasoline prices would be below $2 per gallon [1] - White House officials said secondary sanctions on Russia are expected to be implemented on Friday, and Russia has expressed its desire to meet with Trump [1] - Germany is preparing to launch a €100 - billion ($116 - billion) investment fund named "Deutschlandfonds" after the parliamentary summer recess in September or October. It aims to secure strategic sectors and boost the domestic capital market, and may expand its scope later [1] Investment Logic - The Russia - Ukraine situation has new developments. Trump announced a 25% additional tariff on India and plans to meet Putin and Zelensky next week. Before the meeting, the US is unlikely to intensify sanctions on Russia. Trump is concerned about inflation, as sanctioning Russia could lead to soaring oil prices and inflation, making it difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates. The "tariff card" is a means to levy more tariffs and force a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium - term [3] Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Iranian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks are the US intensifying sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle - East conflicts [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The weakening US job market has heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: Closing price was 782.50 yuan/g, with a change of 1.18 yuan compared to the previous day; trading volume was 191,341.00, down 2,012.00 from the previous day; open interest was 215,212.00, down 3,440.00 from the previous day; inventory was 36,045.00 (in ten - gram units). [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: Closing price was 9,182.00 yuan/kg, with a change of 107.00 yuan compared to the previous day; trading volume was 372,060.00, down 728,580.00 from the previous day; open interest was 373,376.00, up 2,266.00 from the previous day; inventory was 1,208,033.00 (in ten - gram units). [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: Closing price was 3,431.80 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 3.20 dollars compared to the previous day; trading volume was 143,644.00, down 6,488.00 from the previous day; open interest was 340,930.00, up 4,008.00 from the previous day; inventory was 38,679,703.32 (in troy ounces). [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: Closing price was 37.94 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.10 dollars compared to the previous day; trading volume was 38,956.00, down 2,669.00 from the previous day; open interest was 122,977.00, down 711.00 from the previous day; inventory was 506,311,741.34 (in troy ounces). [1] Market News and Macroeconomic Information - Trump ordered an additional 25% tariff on India, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff base in the US - Japan trade agreement [1] - Trump's advisors are pushing to temporarily fill the vacant positions on the Fed board, and Fed official Cook hinted at a possible rate cut in the near future [1] - The US Treasury may issue about $50 billion in bonds in Q3, which may cause a liquidity shock. US consumer - end inflation has risen, but due to the possible significant downward revision of new non - farm payrolls from May to July, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, October, and December has increased [1] - The ECB paused rate cuts in July, and the market expects the ECB to cut rates once by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025, and the Bank of Japan still has the possibility of raising rates by the end of 2025 [1] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around $3,150 - $3,250 and the resistance level around $3,500 - $3,700; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 760 yuan and the resistance level around 800 - 850 yuan; for London silver, focus on the support level around $34 - $36 and the resistance level around $37 - $40; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 yuan and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is signaling a potential interest rate cut due to a weakening labor market and persistent inflation pressures, leading to a consensus in the market for a rate reduction [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The core PCE inflation rate in June was 2.8%, indicating persistent inflation challenges [1]. - The July non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 new jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [4]. - Revisions to previous months' job data revealed a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs, raising concerns about the labor market's health [4][5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve officials, including Bowman and Waller, have publicly supported a more proactive approach to rate cuts, citing the need to address a weakening job market [2][6]. - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged from 37% to over 75%, with some institutions predicting a cut of up to 50 basis points if unemployment rises [2][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The market has shifted from a wait-and-see approach to betting on rate cuts, with a consensus forming around the likelihood of a reduction [3][6]. - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup anticipate multiple rate cuts, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25% [6]. Group 4: Implications for Domestic Markets - A potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could provide some monetary policy flexibility for domestic markets, particularly in China, where the current interest rate differential with the U.S. is significant [8][10]. - The anticipated easing of U.S. monetary policy may enhance liquidity in global markets, potentially benefiting domestic capital markets [8][10].

周二，美元整体维持窄幅震荡走势，市场在等待总统川普即将公布的美联储理事提名人选。美元指数徘 徊于98.50附近，近期因疲弱的就业数据和市场对9月降息预期升温而承压。 市场关注美联储新提名人选 总统特朗普已确认，将在本周内宣布填补美联储理事会空缺的提名人选。此前，美联储理事阿德里安娜 ·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）提前辞职，将于2025年8月8日正式离任，原任期本应于2026年1月届满。 库格勒的提前离职加快了川普政府寻找"理念一致"继任者的进程。此次任命不仅涉及当前的理事空缺， 也可能对未来的美联储主席人选产生重要影响。 特朗普已明确表示不会提名财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）担任该职务，称其更希望继续担任 当前职务。目前，美联储主席职位的候选名单中还有四人，其中两位已被公开确认： ·凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh），前美联储理事，目前立场更接近川普； ·凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett），现任国家经济委员会主任，长期川普顾问。 其他潜在人选还包括现任理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller），以支持降息立场著称。特朗普还 曾表示，此次提名人选未来有 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a near two-week high of $3,390.32 before closing at $3,380.65, marking four consecutive days of gains, indicating strong upward momentum [1] - Currently, gold is fluctuating around 3,366 yuan in the European market [1] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.14% at 44,111.74 points, the S&P 500 down 0.49% at 6,299.19 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.65% at 20,916.55 points [2] - Disappointing U.S. service sector data raised concerns about corporate prospects, with the ISM non-manufacturing index showing zero growth at 50.1, below expectations of 51.5 and the previous month's 50.8 [3] - The employment index dropped from 47.2 to 46.4, contributing to inflationary concerns [3] - President Trump's announcement of tariffs on imported drugs and potential tariffs on semiconductors negatively impacted market sentiment [3] - Companies like Yum Brands reported earnings below expectations due to high tariffs, with shares dropping over 5%, while Caterpillar warned of significant challenges from tariffs, potentially leading to losses of up to $1.5 billion by 2025 [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The list of candidates for the new Federal Reserve chair has narrowed, with speculation about an imminent announcement from President Trump [4][5] - Predictions suggest that once a new chair is announced, the market may increase bets on interest rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup forecasting a 25 to 50 basis point cut as early as September [6] - Current probabilities indicate a 94.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September, with a 67.6% chance of cumulative cuts of 50 basis points by October [6] Group 4: Market Predictions and Valuations - Wall Street analysts are warning investors to prepare for a market downturn due to high stock valuations being challenged by deteriorating economic data [7] - Major investment banks predict a potential short-term decline in the S&P 500 index in the coming weeks to months [7] - Concerns about stock market bubbles are rising, with predictions that the S&P 500 could reach 7,500 points next year, similar to the peak of the internet bubble [8] - The S&P 500's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently hit 76, indicating overbought conditions [10] - The cost of options to hedge against significant declines is increasing, reflecting growing concerns about market downturns [10]

Economic Data - The ISM non-manufacturing index was reported at 50.1, indicating stagnation in the service sector, which constitutes 70% of the U.S. economy [3] - Concerns about stagflation have emerged, characterized by high inflation coupled with economic stagnation, with JPMorgan warning of a "high" risk of recession in the U.S. [3] Trade Policies - Former President Trump announced intentions to significantly increase tariffs on India and potentially on pharmaceuticals and chips, with drug tariffs possibly reaching 250% [3] - India, as the largest exporter of generic drugs, may see U.S. drug prices rise sharply due to these tariffs, while India has responded strongly against these measures [3] - Trump's push for domestic chip production indicates a strategic shift, with an announcement expected next week that could impact major companies like TSMC and Samsung [3] Oil Market - International oil prices have declined for four consecutive days, despite supply disruptions from Russia, as OPEC+ increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in August [4] - A Russian official suggested that halting 9.5 million barrels of Russian oil daily could drive prices up to $140 per barrel, highlighting the ongoing tug-of-war in the oil market [4] Stock Market Performance - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with Pinduoduo up 0.52% and TSMC down 2.75% due to tariff concerns, while companies like Tianjing Bio and Zhihu saw gains of over 15% and 6%, respectively [5] - The technology sector is witnessing significant developments, with OpenAI releasing two open-source models and Google introducing the Genie 3 model, which could revolutionize gaming and the metaverse [5] - JPMorgan cautioned that if OpenAI's GPT-5 fails, it could lead to a significant downturn in the AI industry [5] Investment Outlook - The current market environment is characterized by weak economic data, trade tensions, and technological advancements, creating a complex investment landscape [5] - For long-term investors, defensive opportunities may arise in the energy and healthcare sectors amid stagflation concerns, while the AI sector, despite short-term volatility, holds potential for significant growth in the coming decade [5]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is facing significant challenges due to the UK's economic situation, characterized by stagnation and high inflation, leading to a potential downtrend against the US dollar in the coming months [1] Economic Conditions - The Bank of England is caught in a "stagflation" dilemma, balancing between weak economic growth and high inflation [1] - Despite inflation remaining above target levels, the central bank may have to implement excessive rate cuts due to economic weakness [1] - The tightening of fiscal policy in the UK is increasing pressure on the central bank to stimulate the economy [1] Currency Forecast - Analyst Lale Akoner predicts a downward trend for the GBP/USD exchange rate over the next 3-6 months, reflecting the divergence in monetary policies between the UK and the US [1] - The recent technical analysis shows that the GBP/USD pair has encountered resistance at the 21-day simple moving average after breaking a downward trend line [1] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 40, indicating that recent rebounds in the currency pair are merely technical corrections [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trends in gold prices and related ETFs indicate a shift in market sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening U.S. economy [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Trends - On August 5, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.25%, closing at $3435 per ounce [1]. - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) saw a slight increase of 0.23% as of August 6 [2]. - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has a current size of 1.467 billion yuan and has experienced a net inflow of 6.99 million yuan over the past two days [3]. Group 2: Institutional Sentiment - Citigroup, known for its bearish stance on gold, has revised its three-month price forecast from $3300 to $3500 per ounce, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment towards gold [3]. - The expected trading price range for gold has also been adjusted from $3100-$3500 to $3300-$3600 per ounce [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. second-quarter GDP data shows a slowdown in domestic demand, suggesting a weakening economy, which supports the case for potential interest rate cuts [4]. - The unexpected decline in the U.S. job market has increased expectations for a rate cut in September, further bolstering gold prices [4]. - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Quarles raises concerns about the independence of the Fed, which may also contribute to upward pressure on gold prices [4].

而在美债高速增长周期步入滞胀，则更具破坏力，因为在滞胀环境中货币政策效应显著下降，主要依靠的就是财政手段治理，美国若陷入滞胀泥潭，其问题 的严重性不言而喻，将直指美国的债务货币体系，将直击美元命运，全球的去美元化潮流将难以阻挡，美元的国际储备占比会快速下降，为了维护美元的国 际霸权地位，可以预见美国将会更加激进，在摆脱债务困境这一问题上会更加依赖债务军事化，所以能否步入滞胀周期，对全球的和平发展大环境有着深远 影响，这是值得高度重视的问题。 目前最为关键的关税谈判还没有靴子落地，由于中国是全球制造业中心，因此中美关税谈判在相当大的程度上决定了美国能否步入滞胀周期，如果美国对华 制定了偏高关税，美国经济大概率要步入滞胀周期，这是国际供应链与美国市场需求关系决定的。 来源：馨月 更多精彩文章：权重股护盘沪指领涨 结构性强势中多呈技术性卖点 美国周二公布的ISM非制造业指数显示7月服务业零增长，同时上周非农数据不佳，再加上关税等因素影响，华尔街对美国滞胀风险的忧虑在升温。服务业 占美国经济总量约70%，服务业的放缓也预示美国经济将面临更大风险。 突然大降的非农数据以及不佳的服务业数据等，说明美国就业与经济增速在下滑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - On August 5th, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month rose. IF increased by 0.86%, IH by 0.8%, IC by 0.72%, and IM by 0.9%. The total trading volume of stock index futures declined on the trading day, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. In terms of positions, IF's total position increased by 1005 lots, IH's by 660 lots, IC's decreased by 1806 lots, and IM's decreased by 7110 lots [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Periodic Index Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and Its Futures Contracts**: The CSI 300 index closed at 4103.45, up 0.80%. Among its futures contracts, IF2508 closed at 4095, up 0.86% with a basis of -8.45; IF2509 closed at 4082, up 0.84% with a basis of -21.45; IF2512 closed at 4051, up 0.85% with a basis of -52.45; IF2603 closed at 4020.6, up 0.84% with a basis of -82.85 [1] - **SSE 50 and Its Futures Contracts**: The SSE 50 index closed at 2790.73, up 0.77%. Among its futures contracts, IH2508 closed at 2789.4, up 0.80% with a basis of -1.33; IH2509 closed at 2791, up 0.83% with a basis of 0.27; IH2512 closed at 2792.8, up 0.82% with a basis of 2.07; IH2603 closed at 2794, up 0.87% with a basis of 3.27 [1] - **CSI 500 and Its Futures Contracts**: The CSI 500 index closed at 6303.24, up 0.66%. Among its futures contracts, IC2508 closed at 6265.4, up 0.72% with a basis of -37.84; IC2509 closed at 6198.6, up 0.66% with a basis of -104.64; IC2512 closed at 6040.2, up 0.65% with a basis of -263.04; IC2603 closed at 5909.8, up 0.62% with a basis of -393.44 [1] - **CSI 1000 and Its Futures Contracts**: The CSI 1000 index closed at 6787.48, up 0.71%. Among its futures contracts, IM2508 closed at 6754.4, up 0.90% with a basis of -33.08; IM2509 closed at 6682, up 0.90% with a basis of -105.48; IM2512 closed at 6490.8, up 0.90% with a basis of -296.68; IM2603 closed at 6311, up 0.78% with a basis of -476.48 [1] 3.2 Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: IF's total trading volume increased by 3421 lots, IH's by 2218 lots, IC's decreased by 11728 lots, and IM's decreased by 33934 lots [2] - **Positions**: IF's total position increased by 1005 lots, IH's by 660 lots, IC's decreased by 1806 lots, and IM's decreased by 7110 lots [2] 3.3 Top 20 Member Position Changes in Futures - **IF Contracts**: For IF2508, long positions decreased by 155 with a net change of 692, and short positions decreased by 181 with a net change of 533; for IF2509, long positions increased by 601; for IF2512, long positions decreased by 126; for IF2603, long positions increased by 372 [5] - **IH Contracts**: For IH2508, long positions decreased by 216 with a net change of 1299; for IH2509, long positions increased by 1020 and short positions increased by 507 with a net change of 1105; for IH2512, long positions increased by 495 [5] - **IC Contracts**: For IC2508, long positions decreased by 1509 and short positions decreased by 1519; for IC2509 and IC2512, long positions decreased by 1274 and 537 respectively, and short positions decreased by 985 and 202 respectively; for IC2603, long positions increased by 700 [5] - **IM Contracts**: For IM2508, long positions decreased by 1730 and short positions decreased by 2259; for IM2509, long positions decreased by 4474 with a net change of -7498, and short positions decreased by 3785 with a net change of -6783; for IM2512, long positions decreased by 1294 [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6] 3.5 Important Drivers - Seven departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization", strengthening medium - and long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction such as 5G, industrial Internet, data and computing power centers, and using various financing methods to broaden the funding sources. They also put forward requirements in multiple aspects such as promoting the financing of emerging industries in the capital market, and the State Council emphasized consolidating and expanding the upward trend of the economic recovery [7][8]