Report Summary 1. Market Performance on August 18, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market showed strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high since August 2015, the Northbound 50 hit a record high, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both exceeded their October 8, 2024 highs. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85% to 3728.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73% to 11835.57 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.84% to 2606.20 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2764.2 billion yuan, a significant increase of 519.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4239.41, up 37.06 [1][2] - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: Coke weighted index oscillated weakly, closing at 1693.3, down 22.8. Coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 1174.0 yuan, down 34.1 [3][4] - **Other Futures**: - Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose due to stable spot prices and capital factors, despite the decline of US sugar on Friday. - Shanghai Rubber oscillated and adjusted due to large short - term gains, technical factors, and the decline of crude oil prices. - Palm Oil 2601 contract closed with a small increase, and the expected export volume from Malaysia from August 1 - 15 increased by 34.5% compared to the same period last month. - Shanghai Copper closed slightly down 0.01%, with limited macro - guidance and increased social inventory dragging down the price, but potential restocking demand restricted the decline. - Iron Ore 2601 contract closed down 0.64% at 772 yuan, with supply tightening and high iron - water production leading to a short - term oscillating trend. - Asphalt 2510 contract closed up 0.06% at 3473 yuan, with short - term demand difficult to improve and prices oscillating. - Cotton: Zhengzhou Cotton's night - session main contract closed at 14130 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 87 lots. - Logs: The 25091 contract opened at 817, closed at 811, and decreased by 1105 lots. The spot price in Shandong remained unchanged. - Steel: rb2510 closed at 3155 yuan/ton, hc2510 closed at 3419 yuan/ton. Steel futures may face short - term pressure due to poor fundamental improvement. - Alumina: ao2601 closed at 3171 yuan/ton, with supply expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year and prices oscillating. - Shanghai Aluminum: al2510 closed at 20595 yuan/ton. The expansion of US tariffs on aluminum derivatives affected the price, but the probability of a trend reversal is low [1][5][8] 2. Fundamental Information Coke - The sixth round of price increase has been implemented. The overseas demand for US Treasury bonds is resilient, with foreign investors' holdings reaching a new high in June, while India and Ireland's holdings declined. - Raw material inventory has increased. The current iron - water production is 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons. The coal mine inventory has no pressure, and the inventory has shifted downstream. The total coking coal inventory is increasing. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 20 yuan/ton [5] Coking Coal - The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report aims to promote a reasonable increase in prices. - The mine - end inventory has increased, and the coking coal inventory has shifted downstream. The cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months, and the inventory is moderately high [5] Other Commodities - **Soybean Meal**: The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the oil - mill operating rate is high, with high inventory. The Brazilian premium has slightly declined, but the high price of US soybeans keeps the import cost high. There is an expected supply shortage in the fourth quarter [7] - **Pig**: It is currently the off - season for pork consumption, with weak terminal demand. The supply of suitable pigs has increased, and the overall situation is one of loose supply and demand [7] - **Palm Oil**: The expected export volume from Malaysia from August 1 - 15 increased significantly compared to the same period last month [8] - **Copper**: The social inventory increased at the beginning of the week, dragging down the price, but the potential restocking demand of downstream processing enterprises restricts the decline [8] - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week, and the iron - water production is at a relatively high level, resulting in a short - term oscillating price [8] - **Asphalt**: The capacity utilization rate increased last week, but the shipment volume decreased. The demand is affected by weather and funds, and the price is oscillating [9] - **Logs**: The import volume in July decreased year - on - year, and the futures price is affected by the increase in external quotes. The spot trading is weak [10] - **Steel**: The weekly output of five major steel products has increased for three consecutive weeks, the inventory has accumulated faster, and the apparent demand has declined to a new low since early March [11] - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity is high, the import window opens intermittently, and the supply is expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year, with inventory increasing [11] - **Aluminum**: The expansion of US tariffs on aluminum derivatives affects China's exports, but the impact is weaker than before. Considering the expected peak season in September and the expected interest - rate cut, the probability of a trend reversal is low [11]

美东时间周一，美股三大指数收盘几乎平收。截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.08%，报44911.82点；纳斯达克综合指数涨0.03%，报21629.77点；标普500指数 跌0.01%，报6449.15点。 债券市场方面，美债收益率连升三日，10年期美国国债、2年期美国国债收益率18日日内均涨逾1个基点，分别收于4.334%、3.767%。 （文章来源：上海证券报） 平静的行情下，市场屏息以待8月21日至23日举行的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，以期美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话能为货币政策路径与经济前景提供更多指 引。 美东时间周一，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.08%，报44911.82点；纳斯达克综合指数涨0.03%，报21629.77点；标普500指数 跌0.01%，报6449.15点。 大型科技股涨跌不一，Meta收跌2.27%，微软、苹果、谷歌小幅下跌；奈飞、亚马逊、英伟达小幅收涨，特斯拉涨1.39%。 英特尔跌超3%，结束此前连续六个交易日上涨的趋势。据外媒报道，一位白宫官员和知情人士透露，特朗普政府正与英特尔公司洽谈，拟收购英特尔约 10%股份。若交易成行，美国联邦政府将一跃成为这家芯片制造商 ...

近期，各地金融管理部门围绕地方经济与产业特点出台针对性举措，金融机构依托自身资源禀赋强化服 务能力，共同落实落细稳经济各项存量与增量政策。民生银行首席经济学家兼研究院院长温彬认为，后 续货币政策的重心在于抓好落实，积极推动前期推出的一揽子金融政策以及近期各项稳增长增量政策落 地显效，并对前期政策的传导情况和实际效果保持密切跟踪，增强灵活性。总体看，下半年为稳信用、 促内需、强协同、保持政策连续性稳定性，货币政策仍将保持支持性立场。 ...

中金公司研报表示，近期市场对美联储降息的定价大幅提升，美联储内部分歧加剧，既有赞同降息也有 主张观望的声音。美国总统特朗普和财政部长贝森特等人也在向美联储施压，呼吁大幅度降低利率。但 我们认为，现实条件并不支持大幅降息，当前美国面临的最大风险是"类滞胀"，而降息并不能解决这一 矛盾。货币政策仍应以稳定通胀（预期）为核心，而非追求短期增长或屈从于政治压力。因此我们判 断，美联储在降息决策上将保持谨慎，不会大幅宽松。就业放缓与通胀粘性并存，货币政策路径的变数 将大大提升。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market and monetary policy in China, reflecting on the current economic conditions and market sentiment. Key Points and Arguments Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report indicates a decrease in the demand for stable growth and an increase in the demand for risk prevention, suggesting a potential tightening of monetary policy in the third quarter [1] - The easing of US-China relations and a 5.3% economic growth in the first half of the year have reduced the pressure for stable growth, leading to a shift in monetary policy from loose to tight [1][5] - The report indicates a more optimistic view on inflation and economic conditions, with a shift from "expected to maintain a low recovery trend" to "moderate recovery, with more positive factors" [4] Bond Market Dynamics - Recent weak financial and economic data have failed to boost market sentiment, as the central bank emphasizes structural policies, shifting economic drivers from real estate to technology and consumption [6] - The bond market is currently experiencing high duration and leverage levels, lacking catalysts for bullish movements, with expectations of tighter monetary policy reducing the likelihood of bond purchases by the central bank in the short term [7] - The strong performance of the A-share market has created a "see-saw effect," negatively impacting bond market sentiment [3] Factors Influencing Bond Market Sentiment - Upcoming tax payment periods and the September 3 military parade may create volatility in the bond market, with the A-share market's healthy structure potentially continuing to suppress bond market risk appetite [8] - Despite some negative factors, overall liquidity remains loose, and the rational pricing of bonds suggests a lower likelihood of significant adjustments [9] Investment Strategy Recommendations - A defensive strategy is recommended, focusing on opportunities for recovery in oversold conditions, with suggestions to reduce duration and consider steepening the yield curve [10] - In credit bonds, emphasis is placed on short-duration bonds, with a cautious approach to extending duration [11] Other Important Insights - The shift in the central bank's attitude reflects broader economic conditions and the changing priorities for stable growth [5] - The current market environment necessitates a reevaluation of traditional asset allocation strategies, as non-bank deposits are flowing into equity assets, altering the dynamics of asset allocation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The stock and bond markets are experiencing contrasting trends, with the A-share market reaching a historic high while the bond market is facing significant declines [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - On August 18, the A-share market continued its upward trend, with the total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan for the first time [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3728 points, marking a nearly ten-year high, with over 4000 stocks in the two markets showing gains [2]. - The trading volume in the A-share market exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan, setting a new annual high and the third highest in history [3]. Group 2: Bond Market Performance - The bond market saw a significant downturn, with the 30-year government bond futures experiencing their largest drop in over five months, down 1.33% to 116.09 yuan [2]. - The yields on various government bonds rose sharply, with the 30-year bond yield surpassing 2% for the first time in over four months [2][3]. - The yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds were reported at 1.77% and 2.037%, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.5 basis points and 4.3 basis points from the previous day [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite the current downturn in the bond market, many institutions maintain an optimistic outlook, citing factors such as a weak economic fundamental and expectations of a loose monetary policy [4][5]. - The Ministry of Finance announced operations to support the liquidity of government bonds, which may have limited short-term impact on the overall bond market [4]. - Analysts suggest that the bond market may have entered a "wrongly priced" state, with future movements dependent on monetary policy adjustments and market risk preferences [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short - term, suggesting that the 10 - year Treasury yield may return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, there are prominent opportunities in credit bonds [1][107]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Historically, inflation, overheating or recovery of the economy, and tightening of monetary policy are the main reasons for the significant bearish trend in the bond market. Currently, the probability of a significant bearish trend in the bond market is low. The bond market is more likely to maintain a volatile pattern in the next 1 - 2 years [1]. - The signals before the inflection point of the bull - to - bear transition in the bond market are weakening. In the future, nominal GDP growth rate, PPI year - on - year growth rate, and institutional behavior (regulatory policies) may be key indicators and signals. CPI recovery is neither a sufficient nor a necessary condition [1][92]. - The current bond market does not have the conditions for a significant bearish trend. The reasons include the low probability of significant tightening of monetary policy this year, weak economic repair momentum, a loose capital situation, uncertain effects of anti - involution policies, and limited external negative pressure on the bond market [1][106]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Characteristics of Past Bond Bear Markets - **2007 - 2008**: Due to overheating of the economy and high inflation pressure, the central bank continuously raised interest rates, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3% to 4.5%. After the global financial crisis in the second half of 2008, the policy turned to easing [5]. - **2010 - 2011**: After the "Four - Trillion" stimulus plan, inflation pressure climbed again. The central bank implemented tightening policies, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3.2% to 4.1% [8]. - **2013**: Due to the "Money Shortage" and financial supervision, there was a liquidity crisis. The central bank tightened liquidity, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3.4% to 4.6% [9][10]. - **2016 - 2017**: With strong financial supervision, supply - side reform, and shantytown renovation monetization, the central bank tightened monetary policy, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.7% to 3.9% [11]. - **2020**: After the public health event, the economy recovered, and the policy gradually returned to normal. The 10 - year Treasury yield started to rise in late April [15]. - **2022**: The end of the public health event increased the market's expectation of economic recovery, and there was a negative feedback from bank wealth management. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.6% to 2.9% [19][21]. - **Common Characteristics**: Policy drive (tightening of monetary policy and strengthening of financial supervision), economic cycle correlation (the bond market is prone to a bearish trend when the macro - economy is improving and inflation is rising), and capital trends (capital is the link between policy and the market) [22][23][24]. 3.2. Inflection Points of Past Bull - to - Bear Transitions in the Bond Market - **2007 - 2008**: The inflection point occurred on January 17, 2007. Before the inflection point, the monetary policy had turned to tightening, the capital was tightened, the fundamentals improved significantly, and inflation pressure increased [24][27][28]. - **2010 - 2011**: The inflection point occurred on July 14, 2010. Before the inflection point, the monetary policy had turned to tightening, the capital was tightened, the economy recovered rapidly, and CPI and PPI had been rising [36][38][40]. - **2013**: The inflection point occurred on April 16, 2013. Before the inflection point, there was a sign of capital tightening, the economy showed a co - existence of recovery and inflation pressure, and the central bank tightened liquidity [45][49][50]. - **2016 - 2017**: The inflection point occurred on October 21, 2016. Before the inflection point, there was no obvious sign of capital tightening, the economy was relatively stable, CPI was not obvious, and PPI rose significantly [53][57][60]. - **2020**: The inflection point occurred on April 8, 2020. Before the inflection point, there was no sign of capital tightening, the economy recovered simultaneously with the bearish trend, CPI was not obvious, and PPI was more obvious [63][66][67]. - **2022**: The inflection point occurred in August 2022. Before the inflection point, there was no sign of capital tightening, the economy had a pre - recovery trend, and CPI and PPI were not obvious [74][77][78]. 3.3. Reasons Why the Current Bond Market is Unlikely to Go Significantly Bearish - **Past Bull - to - Bear Inflection Point Signals**: Fundamental inflection points (leading or synchronous with the bull - to - bear inflection point), policy inflection points (monetary policy tightening), CPI or PPI recovery (PPI bottoming out 6 - 12 months before the bearish trend), and capital inflection points (yield bottom lags behind the capital bottom by an average of 2.5 months). In the future, these signals are weakening [83][85][87]. - **CPI Recovery is Neither Sufficient nor Necessary**: CPI recovery is not a sufficient or necessary condition for the bull - to - bear transition in the bond market. Cost - push inflation has limited impact on the bond market trend [95][96]. - **Current Situation Analysis**: The monetary policy is unlikely to tighten significantly this year. The economic repair momentum is weak, with low nominal GDP growth, negative GDP deflator, and declining PPI. The capital situation is loose, the "anti - involution" policy effect is uncertain, and the external environment has limited negative pressure on the bond market [97][100][105]. 3.4. Investment Analysis Opinions - In the short - term, the report is bullish on the bond market, suggesting that the 10 - year Treasury yield may return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, there are opportunities in credit bonds, such as long - duration sinking urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt. It is recommended to focus on the long - duration capital bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng banks, and be bullish on urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. Pay attention to the capital bonds of Beibu Gulf Bank, Tianjin Bank, and China Property Insurance [106][107].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy shows marginal decline but remains resilient, with industrial output in July 2025 increasing by 1.54% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 0.22%[7] - Eurozone GDP growth slowed in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.40%, down from 1.50%[30] - Germany's industrial production index fell significantly in June 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of -3.8%[33] Market Performance - Global asset prices showed mixed results, with the Nikkei 225 rising by 3.73% and the S&P 500 increasing by 1.73% during the week of August 8-15, 2025[6] - Commodity prices were varied, with the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index declining by 0.58% and London gold prices dropping by 1.86%[6] Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. inflation data indicates a slow transmission of tariffs, with July's CPI rising by 2.7% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 3.1%[39] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have intensified, but future inflation may limit the extent of these cuts, with a forecast of three cuts in 2025 deemed overly optimistic[39] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain current rates, with further cuts potentially delayed until December 2025[40] Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 58.60 in July 2025, down from 61.70[13] - U.S. retail and food sales in July 2025 decreased by 3.92% year-on-year, compared to a previous month of 4.35%[13] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected tariff increases by the Trump administration and geopolitical tensions affecting commodity prices[43]

Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to match social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [1][2] - The report highlights that major economic indicators have shown positive performance under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee [1] - The central bank aims to support high-quality development of the real economy through various monetary policy tools [1][2] Banking Sector Performance - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total assets of China's banking financial institutions reached 467.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [2] - The non-performing loan ratio in the banking sector decreased to 1.49%, while the provision coverage ratio increased to 211.97% [2] - Insurance companies reported a premium income of 3.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [2] Regulatory Developments - The Supreme People's Court issued guidelines to address financing difficulties for private enterprises, regulating high-interest loans and encouraging non-traditional financing methods [3] - The guidelines aim to enhance credit information sharing and promote inclusive finance, providing legal protection for the development of the private economy [3] Leadership Changes - Chengdu Bank appointed Huang Jianjun as the new chairman, succeeding Wang Hui, effective from August 17 [4] Investment Opportunities - Several pension funds have reported annualized returns exceeding 30%, with nearly half of the pension funds achieving over 15% returns [5] - The government is implementing interest subsidy policies for personal consumption loans, potentially lowering effective interest rates [6][7] Compliance and Regulatory Issues - Zhuhai China Resources Bank was fined 3.3475 million yuan for violations in multiple business management regulations [8] - China Post Bank was fined 4.25 million yuan for breaching clearing management regulations, highlighting compliance and internal control issues [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current bond market lacks a new main - line driver, and the strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, suppressing bond market sentiment, especially with increased selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds, leading to a continuous widening of the spread between 10 - year and 30 - year bonds. In this context, the "strong stock, weak bond" linkage effect may intensify, and in the short term, liquidity factors may become the core logic guiding bond market trading. It is recommended to focus on opportunities for the expansion of term spreads brought about by curve steepening [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: T主力收盘价108.015, down 0.29%; TF主力收盘价105.455, down 0.21%; TS主力收盘价102.304, down 0.04%; TL主力收盘价116.090, down 1.33%. All contract volumes increased, with T主力成交量 at 20962, TF主力成交量 at 14257, TS主力成交量 at 5008, and TL主力成交量 at 47329 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads showed changes, such as TL2512 - 2509价差 down 0.13 to - 0.60, T09 - TL09价差 up 1.11 to - 8.08 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T主力持仓量 decreased by 12157 to 107322; TF主力持仓量 increased by 357 to 86134; TS主力持仓量 decreased by 4546 to 61412; TL主力持仓量 decreased by 7726 to 61613. The net positions of the top 20 traders also had various changes [2]. 3.2 CTD Bond Data The net prices of the top two CTD bonds all decreased, for example, 220010.IB(6y) decreased by 0.3457 to 106.5921, and 250007.IB(6y) decreased by 0.2601 to 99.0955 [2]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Active Bond Yields The yields of treasury bond active bonds increased, with the 1 - year yield up 0.20bp to 1.3600%, the 5 - year yield up 1.75bp to 1.5825%, the 7 - year yield up 1.20bp to 1.6850%, and the 10 - year yield up 1.30bp to 1.7450% [2]. 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates All short - term interest rates increased, such as the silver - pledged overnight rate up 6.76bp to 1.4776%, the Shibor overnight rate up 3.80bp to 1.4360%, etc. [2]. 3.5 LPR Rates The 1 - year LPR rate remained at 3.00%, and the 5 - year LPR rate remained at 3.5% [2]. 3.6 Open Market Operations The issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 2665 billion, the maturity scale was 1120 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain liquidity, promote a reasonable recovery of prices, and support key areas through structural monetary policy tools [2]. - **Economic Data**: In July, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3.7% year - on - year. From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, while real estate development investment decreased by 12% [2]. - **Housing Prices**: In July, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers of cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed. The number of cities with month - on - month increases in new - home prices decreased, and only one city had a month - on - month increase in second - hand home prices [2]. 3.8 Key Events to Watch - August 20, 17:00: Eurozone July CPI annual rate final value. - August 21, 02:00: The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [3].