货币政策宽松预期受限，市场担忧政府债供给放量，山东债单日供给近 千亿，引发市场对筹码结构不稳固的担忧，空头力量未完全消退。 2026 年初债市预计震荡，十年国债利率波动区间 1.75%-1.85%，30 年国债利率约 2.3%。社融增速预计小幅上升 0.1%，政府债净融资预计 超万亿，银行杠杆票息策略空间有限。 通胀方面，小金属和贵金属价格上涨对 PPI 影响有限，因有色金属在 PPI 权重较低。预计 2026 年一季度 PPI 不会连续为正，明年 2 月 CPI 同比 预计达 1.5%，受春节错位和技术问题影响。 股市春节躁动对债市压力可控，单周涨幅超 10%才会对债券收益率产生 明显压力。央行通过流动性宽松和买入操作维稳市场，大型银行和保险 公司积极配置，无需过度担心政府债供给。 当前阶段应注重空间选择而非时间选择，十年国债利率区间 1.75%- 1.85%，30 年国债约 2.3%。银行杠杆票息策略舒适，调控空间有限， 应关注具体投资品种及其位置。 Q&A 2025 年债券市场在年底出现了较大调整，主要原因是什么？ 固收- 1 月债市展望 20251229 摘要 2025 年年底债券市场的调整主要有两个 ...

这意味着，日本的经济增长预期对该货币的影响可能比货币政策更大。Juckes说："日元最需要的是更 强劲的GDP增长。" 美元兑日元下跌0.3%，至156.04日元。 伦敦证券交易所集团的数据显示，11月20日美元兑日元触及157.89日元，为1月中旬以来的最高水平。 法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes在一份报告中称，日元需要更强劲的日本GDP增长，才能从目前的疲软水平 走高。过去几个月，尽管日本央行加息，但日元一直在下跌。利率上升未能提振日元，因为加息的同时 也伴随着日本国债收益率的上升和对债务日益加剧的担忧。 责任编辑：刘明亮 法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes在一份报告中称，日元需要更强劲的日本GDP增长，才能从目前的疲软水平 走高。过去几个月，尽管日本央行加息，但日元一直在下跌。利率上升未能提振日元，因为加息的同时 也伴随着日本国债收益率的上升和对债务日益加剧的担忧。 这意味着，日本的经济增长预期对该货币的影响可能比货币政策更大。Juckes说："日元最需要的是更 强劲的GDP增长。" 美元兑日元下跌0.3%，至156.04日元。 伦敦证券交易所集团的数据显示，11月20日美元兑日元触及157.89日元 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, with COMEX gold surpassing $4500 per ounce, while silver prices surged due to supply shortage expectations, breaking through $79 per ounce [1] - Platinum prices are increasing due to persistent supply-demand gaps, while palladium prices are experiencing steady growth with significant fluctuations [1] - By 2026, factors such as central bank gold purchases, rising gold ETF holdings, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside a weakening dollar index, are expected to support gold prices [1] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices on the Shanghai exchange have surpassed 100,000 yuan, reaching a historical high due to supply disruptions and low inventory levels in non-US regions [2] - Labor negotiations at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile have raised concerns about copper supply for 2026, while the National Development and Reform Commission encourages mergers among major copper smelting enterprises [2] - Market sentiment and changes in futures microstructure will be crucial for future price movements [2] Group 3: Aluminum - Aluminum prices have reached new highs amid a favorable macroeconomic environment, although the short-term outlook shows weakening fundamentals [2] - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 60.8%, influenced by environmental production restrictions and high aluminum prices [2] - The market is expected to experience a tug-of-war between macroeconomic benefits and weak fundamentals, leading to high volatility in aluminum prices [2] Group 4: Energy Metals - Lithium demand is showing signs of weakening, while production is increasing, leading to a decrease in inventory levels [3] - There are uncertainties regarding the resumption of production at key mines in Jiangxi, which could impact market expectations for lithium supply [3] - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight raw material supply, while downstream demand is cautious, with companies extending their operations into integrated cost advantages [3] Group 5: Rare Earths - Light rare earth prices are recovering, while medium and heavy rare earth prices are maintaining a downward trend [4]

Macro Policy Updates - The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection's fifth plenary session will be held from January 12 to 14, 2026[2] - The National People's Congress will convene its fourth session on March 5, 2026[2] Fiscal Policy - The national fiscal work conference on December 27 emphasized expanding fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools[3] - New special bond quotas will be allocated to regions with high investment efficiency and project readiness[3] - The Ministry of Finance will enforce strict accountability for local government debt and prohibit the creation of new hidden debts[3] Monetary and Capital Markets - The People's Bank of China suggested integrating incremental and stock policies to enhance financial support for key sectors[4] - The 2025 Financial Stability Report aims to improve the investment scale and proportion of long-term funds in A-shares[4] Industrial Development - The National Development and Reform Commission is focusing on optimizing traditional industries and regulating competition in emerging sectors[5] - The industrial and information technology conference highlighted the need for technological innovation and the development of new industries[5] Risk Management - There is a risk of delayed policy updates affecting economic stability[5]

2025 年 12 月 29 日 宏观经济 开局之年，周期向何处去 ——2026 年宏观经济展望 宏观深度研究 主要观点： 外部环境： 预计 2026 年美国经济短周期仍处于扩张阶段，再通胀概率较大。受减 税、加大投资、关税干扰减弱、降息等因素影响，经济增速 2.5%左右，高 于潜在增速，产出缺口继续扩张，美联储至多降息一次，不排除出现加息 预期。 通胀是美国选民最关注的议题之一，中期选举之前中美经贸关系将暂 时保持稳定。但是，美国可能采取多项措施打击转口贸易，同时中国和欧 盟等经济体的经贸冲突风险可能增加。 风险提示：财政、货币政策低于预期；"两重""两新"边际效应递减，效 果低于预期；房地产市场止跌回稳难度较大；美国通胀存在大幅上升风险； 地缘政治波动加剧。 邢曙光（分析师） xingshuguang@cctgsc.com.cn 登记编号：S0280520050003 钟 山（分析师） zhongshan01@cctgsc.com.cn 登记编号：S0280525060002 相关报告 中国政策： 宏观政策强调提质增效，托底经济的同时，不搞大水漫灌、大规模刺 激，为应对未来风险留有余地，确保政策可持续。预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent adjustment in the bond market is likely to be more of a short - term phenomenon, mainly influenced by policy expectations, sentiment, and supply - demand factors in the short term. In the long run, the bond market logic will return to the fundamentals and the capital situation. - In 2026, the core operating range of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may be between 1.7% - 1.9%, and it may maintain low - level fluctuations. Credit spreads may continue to narrow slightly, but the contraction amplitude may be limited [5][22][24]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Interest - rate bonds**: Since November, the yield curve has become steeper, with the adjustment pressure concentrated on the long - end. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields have fluctuated upward, with the 30 - year yield rising more significantly. The 1 - year yield has been relatively stable. The amplitude of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds since November has been 6bp, 8bp, and 14bp respectively, and the key term spreads have expanded [5][8]. - **Credit bonds**: The adjustment of credit bonds has been relatively lagging, and credit spreads have slightly widened passively. The credit bond yields first fluctuated upward, with medium - and high - grade yields rising more, and then all grades of yields declined to varying degrees. Credit bonds have recovered faster. As of December 22, the AA - grade bond yield has decreased by 9bp compared to early November, and the interest rates of higher - grade 3 - year medium - and short - term notes are similar to those at the beginning of November. Most credit spreads have widened passively, and they are still at historically low levels [5][11]. Adjustment Reasons - **Weak sentiment**: Before important policy meetings, the market entered an observation period, and there was uncertainty about policies such as next year's fiscal strength. The central bank's insufficient liquidity injection and the real - estate enterprise credit event also disturbed market sentiment [5][14]. - **Cautious institutional behavior**: Near the end of the year, under external constraints such as assessment pressure and regulatory policies, institutions' redemption and profit - taking intentions increased, and the willingness to buy was insufficient. The expectation of public - fund fee reform also led to bond - fund position adjustment and selling [5][16]. - **Supply - demand imbalance**: The supply of long - term bonds has increased while the demand has decreased. The supply of medium - and long - term Treasury bonds has increased, especially the supply of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds, while the ability of banks, insurance companies, and other institutions to absorb them is limited, and the demand from funds and other trading players has declined [5][18]. - **Insensitive to economic data**: The market has been insensitive to weak economic data, and the fundamentals have not dominated the recent interest - rate trend. The economic data has continued to show weak recovery, but the market has anticipated it in advance, and the inflation rebound has also suppressed sentiment [5][20]. Future Outlook - **Interest - rate bonds**: In 2026, the macro - policy will maintain a supportive tone of "loose money + loose finance". The weak economic recovery and abundant liquidity environment do not support a significant upward trend in bond yields. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may operate in the range of 1.7% - 1.9%, but it may fluctuate due to challenges in demand and institutional behavior. Uncertain factors such as continued weakening of the fundamentals, intensified geopolitical evolution, and the implementation of fund - fee reform need to be vigilant [22][23][24]. - **Credit bonds**: Under the moderately loose monetary policy and the "asset shortage" situation, credit spreads may continue to narrow slightly, but considering that they are already at historically low levels, the contraction amplitude may be limited [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In 2026, the economy may continue the weak recovery trend, with the old and new driving forces differentiating more significantly under the overall pressure. Infrastructure and real estate may continue to drag down the economy. The central bank will increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment, and the monetary policy will remain moderately loose, promoting the social comprehensive financing cost to run at a low level and promoting a reasonable recovery of prices. The probability of making long positions in the bond market is high, and the bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected [2][75]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - In November, the total bond custody scale increased by 1.48 trillion yuan month - on - month to 178.2 trillion yuan. The increase was mainly due to the growth of the custody scale of national bonds and local government bonds, with commercial banks being the main buyers. Generalized funds mainly increased their holdings of financial bonds [2][8]. - The fourth - quarter regular meeting of the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee in 2025 emphasized increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment, promoting a reasonable recovery of prices, and promoting the social comprehensive financing cost to run at a low level. The meeting removed the content related to small and micro - enterprise financing and real - estate market support [19]. - In November, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased significantly year - on - year. From January to November, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 6.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The profits of the mining industry decreased by 27.2%, the manufacturing industry increased by 5.0%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 8.4% [23]. - At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the total assets of China's financial institutions were 531.76 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The total assets of the banking, securities, and insurance industries increased by 7.9%, 16.5%, and 15.4% respectively [26]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of December 21, the daily average retail volume of passenger cars decreased by 11.4% year - on - year, and the daily average wholesale volume decreased by 9.0% year - on - year. As of December 26, the total box office revenue in the past 7 days increased by 90.1% year - on - year. As of December 19, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 35.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 49.7% year - on - year [29][32]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of December 21, the container throughput of ports increased by 6.6% year - on - year. As of December 26, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased by 3.2% year - on - year. The postal express collection volume increased by 0.1% year - on - year, the delivery volume increased by 1.7% year - on - year, the railway freight volume decreased by 2.0% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume decreased by 0.6% year - on - year [35][39]. 3.2.3 Industrial Operating Rate - As of December 24, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points year - on - year. As of December 25, the average asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.0 percentage points year - on - year. The soda ash operating rate increased by 2.3 percentage points year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points year - on - year [42][44]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of December 26, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days decreased by 23.0% year - on - year. As of December 19, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities decreased by 27.1% year - on - year [47][50]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of December 26, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 22.2% year - on - year, the average wholesale price of vegetables increased by 13.6% year - on - year, and the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits increased by 8.4% year - on - year. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the average spot price of WTI crude oil decreased by 16.9% year - on - year. The average spot price of rebar decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, the average spot price of iron ore increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and the average spot price of glass decreased by 20.3% year - on - year [54][58]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On December 26, most money - market interest rates showed a downward trend. Most government bond yields also decreased. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.29%, 1.59%, 1.84%, and 2.22% respectively, down 7.0BP, 0.8BP, up 0.8BP, and down 0.3BP respectively compared with December 19. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.52%, 1.79%, 1.98%, and 2.39% respectively, down 6.0BP, 0.6BP, up 1.1BP, and down 0.4BP respectively compared with December 19. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.48%, 1.76%, and 2.04% respectively, down 5.2BP, 1.9BP, and 0.5BP respectively compared with December 19. The yields of 1 - month and 1 - year AAA and AA+ inter - bank certificates of deposit increased to varying degrees. As of December 23, the 10 - year government bond yields of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany were 4.18%, 2.04%, 4.51%, and 2.96% respectively, up 2BP, 2BP, 1BP, and down 2BP respectively compared with December 19. On December 26, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.04 and 7.01 respectively, down 192 and 325 pips respectively compared with December 19 [61][65][70]. 3.4 Investment Suggestions - In 2026, the bond market may perform better than expected. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, and a 10BP cut may occur in the first quarter. Currently, it is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5 - year bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [75][78].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced significant weakness on December 29, driven by expectations of supply pressure under a proactive fiscal policy, leading to a decline in government bond futures and an increase in interbank bond yields [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.91% to 111.82, the 10-year main contract down 0.28% to 107.975, and the 5-year main contract down 0.18% to 105.84 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally rose, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 3.65 basis points to 2.255%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 2.45 basis points to 1.86% [2]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 4,823 billion yuan with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 4,150 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate down 1.0 basis point to 1.248%, while the 7-day rate rose by 11.0 basis points to 1.558% [6]. Fiscal Policy Insights - The national fiscal work conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools [8]. - Key tasks for 2026 include boosting domestic demand, increasing investment in new productive forces, and enhancing basic social safety nets [8]. Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income noted that the bond market is likely to remain in a volatile state in the first quarter, with a neutral monetary policy expected and potential for reserve requirement ratio cuts [9]. - CITIC Securities highlighted increased volatility in long-term bond yields and suggested that despite pressures, long-term bonds still offer relative value for allocation [9].

国开ETF（159650）基金经理 吕瑞君 上周五（12月19日）央行净投放呵护流动性，资金面延续宽松，当日央行净投放357亿元。本周一银行 间流动性延续宽松，主要资金价格徘徊低位，当日央行净回笼1836亿元。本周二银行间流动性维持宽松 态势，隔夜资金价格持稳，当日央行净回笼760亿元。本周三银行间流动性宽松态势更甚，主要回购利 率进一步小幅走低，不过非银资金价格有所抬升，当日央行净回笼208亿元。本周四银行间流动性维持 宽松，隔夜资金价格徘徊低位，跨月因素推动下DR007加权有所抬升，当日央行投放888亿元。12月15 日央行还进行了4000亿元1年期MLF操作，本月有3000亿元MLF到期，净投放1000亿元。本周四（12月 25日）相较于上周五，DR001下行1bp收于1.26%，DR007上行4bp收于 1.48%。 海外方面，欧洲央行执行理事会成员Isabel Schnabel表示，她预计一段时间内不会加息。Schnabel近期发 表的言论促使投资者加大对明年加息概率的押注，她对此表示，自己并没有说利率应当上调。"目前来 看，在可预见的将来，预计不会加息，"她在周一发布的一则FAZ播客中表示。"除非 ...

摘要今日周一(12月29日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4471美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 4514.76美元/盎司，跌幅0.39%，最高上探至4548.92美元/盎司，最低触及4471.99美元/盎司。目前来 看，国际黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周一(12月29日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4471美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报4514.76 美元/盎司，跌幅0.39%，最高上探至4548.92美元/盎司，最低触及4471.99美元/盎司。目前来看，国际黄 金短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 市场将关注稍晚公布的美国11月成屋签约销售数据，但在当前流动性偏低的背景下，其对行情的指引作 用或较为有限。货币政策方面，美联储12月会议宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至3.50%—3.75%， 2025年全年累计降息75个基点。 鉴于劳动力市场逐步降温、通胀压力缓解，市场普遍预期美联储2026年仍可能至少降息两次，这将对美 元形成中期压制。利率定价方面，CME FedWatch工具显示，1月会议降息概率约18.3%，短期内政策基 调仍偏观望。 此外，特朗普近期称希望下任美联储主席在市场表现良好时继续维 ...