国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2026年1月末，我国外汇储备规模为33991亿美元，较2025年12月末 上升412亿美元，升幅为1.23%。 2026年1月，受主要经济体财政政策、货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球主要金融资产 价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济运行稳中 有进，发展韧性进一步彰显，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 ...

来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin - 欧洲：周四股市回调后，市场趋于稳定，欧洲股市午盘小幅上涨，本周整体略有上涨。德国出口数据 好于预期，但疲软的工业生产数据凸显了经济增长的脆弱性，而欧洲央行专业预测人士调查显示通胀保 持稳定，尽管一些领先指标发出了一些预警信号。正如预期，欧洲央行昨日连续第五次会议维持利率政 策不变，政策展望强调了持续的贸易不确定性和地缘政治紧张局势。 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内 容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。 - 亚太地区：周五亚洲股市普遍下跌，大中华区和澳大利亚的跌幅超过了日本的涨幅。区域交易主要受 科技股波动的影响，韩国半导体股票再次遭到抛售，恒生科技指数徘徊在熊市边缘。从宏观角度来看， 我们认为政策信号对股市没有提供任何直接的指引。例如，澳大利亚央行和日本央行隔夜的评论重申了 货币政策的谨慎和渐进性，日本家庭消费数据令人失望，印度央行维持利率不变。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the profitability of steel mills was still in a low - range, but slightly improved compared to the previous period. Steel prices maintained a low - level volatile operation. The cost of raw materials remained resilient, and the immediate profit repair space for steel mills was limited. The production side continued to be cautious. The monthly profit rate of steel mills was 39.39%, slightly up from the previous month, but still in the low - profit range [11]. - In terms of supply, in January 2026, the output of rebar was 9.6894 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 180,000 tons (+1.94%) and a month - on - month increase of 31.98%. The output of hot - rolled coils was 15.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 398,900 tons (-2.54%) and a month - on - month increase of 26.85%. The daily average output of hot metal was 2.2839 million tons, remaining at a moderately low level. Affected by the approaching Spring Festival and limited profit repair, steel mills' production was still cautious, but due to the low base in the previous period, the output of finished products increased month - on - month. The output of rebar increased against the seasonal trend, and the output of plates was relatively neutral, with the overall supply pressure easing [11]. - Regarding demand, in January 2026, the apparent consumption of rebar was 9.2766 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5974 million tons (+20.80%) and a month - on - month increase of 11.58%. The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 15.5464 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 630,000 tons (+4.24%) and a month - on - month increase of 26.17%. Overall, the demand side improved significantly year - on - year and showed seasonal repair characteristics month - on - month. The demand for rebar increased temporarily driven by the low base and concentrated project rush, but the overall real - estate investment was still weak, restricting the sustainability of demand. The demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively stable, with a slight year - on - year increase supported by the resilience of the manufacturing industry and exports, without obvious weakening [11]. - In terms of inventory, as of the end of January 2026, the inventory of rebar was 4.7553 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.776 million tons. The inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.5558 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 330,000 tons (-8.50%). Structurally, the inventory of building materials decreased significantly year - on - year, and the inventory level of plates also decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, with the overall inventory pressure continuing to ease. As the Spring Festival approached, short - term demand might weaken again, and the inventory reduction rhythm might slow down, but the low - inventory pattern year - on - year supported prices [11]. - Currently, the black - series is in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. On the one hand, the domestic policy tone remains marginally loose, providing support for demand expectations. On the other hand, the uncertainty of overseas monetary policy has increased, and market volatility has intensified. In the short term, the black - series will mainly operate in a range - bound manner, and the trend opportunities are not yet clear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery rhythm of plate demand, and the marginal changes in "dual - carbon" related policies [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: In January 2026, the profitability of steel mills was in a low - range but slightly improved. Steel prices were volatile at a low level, and the cost of raw materials was resilient, limiting the profit repair space. The monthly profit rate of steel mills was 39.39%, still in the low - profit range [11]. - **Supply**: Rebar output increased year - on - year and month - on - month, while hot - rolled coil output decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The daily average output of hot metal was at a moderately low level. Steel mills' production was cautious, but the output of finished products increased month - on - month due to the low base [11]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand for rebar increased temporarily, but real - estate investment restricted its sustainability. The demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively stable [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased year - on - year. The inventory of building materials decreased significantly, and the inventory of plates also decreased. As the Spring Festival approached, short - term demand might weaken, and the inventory reduction rhythm might slow down [11]. - **Summary**: The black - series is in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it will operate in a range - bound manner, and attention should be paid to inventory changes, plate demand recovery, and "dual - carbon" policies [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts show the price trends, trading volumes, basis, and price differences of rebar, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and other steel products in different regions and contract months, as well as the price differences between different regions and different steel products [23][25][28]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: Charts show the盘面 profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, and the profit of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces [78][81][83]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coils, including total inventory, factory inventory, and social inventory, as well as the inventory of steel billets and other related products [91][94][104]. 3.4 Cost End - Charts show the ratios of rebar to iron ore and coke futures, daily average hot metal and crude steel output, the price of billets, the price difference between rebar and billets, the price of scrap steel, and the consumption of scrap steel [110][113][115]. 3.5 Supply End - Charts show the output, cumulative year - on - year output, and capacity utilization rate of rebar and hot - rolled coils [130][132][135]. 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - **Demand**: Charts show the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the production and export volume of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners [142][145][149]. - **Import - Export**: Charts show the monthly import and export volume of steel, rebar, and plates [155][157][160].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted consecutive 14-day reverse repo operations on February 5 and 6 to proactively address the peak cash demand during the Spring Festival [1][7] - On February 6, the PBOC executed a 315 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation and a 3000 billion yuan 14-day reverse repo operation using a fixed quantity and multi-price bidding method [1][7] - Analysts from Guangfa Securities noted that the PBOC's actions are in response to increased cash withdrawal demands as the Spring Festival approaches, indicating a potential tightening of liquidity [1][8] Group 2 - The PBOC's adjustments to the 14-day reverse repo mechanism in the third quarter of 2025 aimed to enhance liquidity management by allowing for differentiated funding needs among participating institutions [9] - The 2026 PBOC work meeting emphasized maintaining ample liquidity and using various monetary policy tools flexibly to support high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery [4][10] - The PBOC's Vice Governor indicated that there is still room for further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions in 2026, while also suggesting a shift towards more structural and fiscal tools for achieving growth [11][12]

2月6日，在经历了本周惊心动魄的宽幅震荡后，贵金属市场在周五亚洲时段终于迎来了一线生机。金丰 来认为，虽然黄金和白银在低位买盘的支撑下企稳回升，但本周整体的走势已显著转弱，尤其是白银在 抹去前期涨幅后，周跌幅依然维持在14%附近。这种由避险情绪消退与美元走强共同驱动的回调，正迫 使市场重新评估贵金属的中期定价逻辑。 随着地缘局势的降温，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力在短期内有所削弱。相关事实数据表示，现货黄金本 周虽一度失守5000美元心理关口，跌至4825.31美元附近，但其表现仍优于其他金属品种。金丰来表 示，黄金市场之所以能展现出较强的韧性，得益于其优越的流动性和相对理性的仓位分布。相比之下， 铂金等其他贵金属在本周也遭遇了近10%的重挫，显示出整个板块在强势美元面前的集体承压。 市场目前正高度关注美联储领导层的潜在变动对货币政策的影响。有分析指出，由于下届美联储主席提 名人选立场偏向鹰派，美元指数正录得自去年10月以来的最大周涨幅，这对以美元计价的金属价格构成 了持续的边际压力。金丰来认为，白银在70至90美元区间已进入关键的筑底阶段。如果价格能在此区域 随着地缘局势的降温，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力在短期内 ...

The meeting of the Bank of England (‘the BoE’) on 5 February brought traders a significant surprise in the form of greater dovishness than predicted among the Monetary Policy Committee (‘the MPC’). The aftermath saw the pound decline, in some cases sharply, against most other currencies. This article summarises the reaction to the BoE’s statement and press conference, then looks briefly at the charts of GBPUSD and GBPJPY. As widely expected, the BoE held its bank rate at 3.75% on Thursday, 5 February. Ho ...

Report Summary of Iron Ore Daily by Guantong Futures 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore fundamentals show a decrease in arrivals, alleviating supply pressure. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and although ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, but the futures contracts present a back structure and a futures discount under a positive basis. After a short - term breakdown, it shows a certain weakness [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures Prices**: The main contract of iron ore futures maintained a weak downward trend, closing at 760.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 1.04% from the previous day's closing price. The trading volume was 216,000 lots, the open interest was 515,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.612 billion yuan. After the breakdown, it remained weak, with attention on further tests around 750 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, dropped 2 to 770 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder dropped 2 to 665 yuan/ton. The main swap was at 99.3 (-1.3) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices declined slightly [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 807.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 46.7 yuan/ton, showing little change. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 18 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 10 yuan. Iron ore was slightly weak in the short - term [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, mainly due to the obvious recovery in Brazilian shipments. The arrivals continued to decline, as the previous drop in shipments was reflected in arrivals. There were expectations of supply disruptions due to weather. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, the steel mill profitability weakened, and the rigid demand was stable. As the Spring Festival approached, steel mills accelerated restocking, and as restocking progressed, the support for prices might gradually weaken. In terms of inventory, ports continued to accumulate inventory, the inventory at berth decreased, and steel mill inventories increased significantly. The total inventory pressure was still building up. Market sentiment weakened, and both futures and spot prices were under pressure [2]. Macro - level Analysis - **Domestic**: The positive policy expectation continues as the macro - mainline, and the expectation of policy intensification in the first quarter to achieve an economic "good start" in the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan" is strengthening. The overall policy environment is favorable, which is one of the core logics for being bullish on risk assets in the first quarter [3]. - **Overseas**: One of the core variables in overseas macro this week is that Kevin Warsh was nominated as a candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, but the impact on the market is expected to be limited. His monetary policy stance is "supporting interest rate cuts but advocating balance - sheet reduction", so he is considered a hawkish figure. In addition to monetary policy, investors are also advised to pay attention to the two high - uncertainty risk events of the US - Iran situation and the US government shutdown [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads are continuously widening, reaching a ten - year high. The report analyzes the driving mechanisms and characteristics of these two key spreads, revealing the differences in dominant forces and structural change trends of different term spreads [1]. - In 2026, the steepening of the yield curve will continue, and the 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads will generally widen marginally. The 10Y - 1Y spread will be steepened by monetary easing and may widen, while the 30Y - 10Y spread will be repaired by supply and rise in an oscillatory manner [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 10Y - 1Y Spread: Short - end Dominant, Long - end Amplifying - **Driving Factors: Policy Anchor, Growth Expectation, and Supply - demand Structure** - The 10Y - 1Y spread reflects the relative changes among short - term policy interest rates, medium - and long - term growth and inflation, and bond supply - demand structure. Short - term interest rates are more sensitive to monetary policy and the money market, while long - term interest rates reflect future growth trends, inflation expectations, and economic cycle changes. Bond supply - demand structure differences and investor behavior also affect the spread [9]. - **Pricing Logic: A Stable Negative Dynamic Equilibrium Relationship between 1Y and 10Y - 1Y** - Short - term interest rates determine the core direction of the 10Y - 1Y spread. After removing the influence of interest rate central migration, the 1 - year Treasury yield and the spread show a clear negative correlation. Long - term interest rates have a limited and unstable impact on the 10Y - 1Y spread [10][13]. - **Periodic Deviation: Structural Disturbance under Short - end Dominance** - The short - term interest rate and the 10Y - 1Y spread generally show a strong negative correlation, but there are also periodic changes in their correlation during the interest rate central switching stage. The 1 - year yield dominates the spread direction, and the negative correlation between the spread and the 1 - year yield may deviate or weaken in the short term. The correlation between the spread and the 10 - year Treasury yield is weak [17]. 3.2 30Y - 10Y Spread: The Dominance Shifting to the Ultra - long End, Spread Repricing - **Driving Factors of the 30Y - 10Y Spread: Differentiation in Supply - demand, Expectation, and Term Sensitivity** - The 30Y - 10Y spread reflects the differences in supply - demand structure, long - term expectations, and policy sensitivity between long - term and medium - long - term Treasuries. Its core drivers include supply - demand structure differences, differences in long - term economic growth and inflation expectations, and the impact of policy uncertainty and term sensitivity differences [25]. - **Core Pricing Logic: The Ultra - long End is Becoming the Dominant Force of the Spread** - The correlation between the 10 - year Treasury yield and the 30Y - 10Y spread is generally weak. The 30 - year Treasury yield has a more stable positive linkage with the spread, indicating that the ultra - long - end interest rate is playing an increasingly prominent role in driving the 30Y - 10Y spread [26][27]. - **Stage Switching: Multiple Combination Forms of Interest Rate Central Changes** - The pricing center of the 30Y - 10Y spread is gradually shifting to the ultra - long end. In different macro - economic and policy environments, the spread may show multiple combination forms, and the mid - term trend shows that the ultra - long end is gradually becoming the core anchor of spread pricing [34][43]. 3.3 Outlook: The Steepening of the Curve Continues, and the Double Spreads Widen - **10Y - 1Y Spread: Steepened by Easing, May Widen** - In the first half of 2026, the 10Y - 1Y spread may widen. The strengthening of the interest rate cut expectation will lower the short - term interest rate, and the front - loaded fiscal policy will increase the supply pressure, with the long - term pressure being higher [44][45]. - **30Y - 10Y Spread: Repaired by Supply, Rise in an Oscillatory Manner** - In 2026, the supply premium will replace the liquidity premium as the dominant factor of the 30Y - 10Y spread. In the first half of 2026, the 30Y - 10Y spread will remain high and oscillate, and the center may widen further [46].

智通财经APP获悉，在澳洲央行意外重启加息周期与全球大宗商品市场大幅波动的双重夹击下，此前大规模看涨澳元的对冲基金正陷入一场复杂的博弈。澳 洲央行在近期宣布将官方现金利率上调25个基点至3.85%，这一举措打破了长达两年的政策观望期，旨在应对依然具有粘性的通胀压力。然而，本应受益于 利差收窄而走强的澳元，却在触及近三年高位后迅速遭遇阻力。其核心诱因在于全球贵金属市场的剧烈震荡，黄金和白银价格从历史高点大幅回落，直接削 弱了澳元作为典型商品货币的上涨逻辑。 值得注意的是，上月澳元曾在澳洲央行收紧政策预期升温、叠加金银价格大幅上扬的双重利好推动下飙升4.4%，彼时对冲基金的乐观立场尚有合理依据;而 如今，同一批机构却面临政策转向与商品熊市的双重夹击，其策略有效性正遭受前所未有的考验。 "这是个老生常谈的故事——鉴于澳洲央行的鹰派立场，投机者能否押对宝，或者说，押对澳元?"新加坡StoneX货币交易员吴明泽表示，"澳元确实有很多利 好因素，但问题在于贵金属市场的波动最终是否会将多头压垮。" 与大宗商品价格联动紧密的澳元在1月29日一度攀升至70.94美分，创下2023年2月以来最高水平，但随后快速回落。此次调整恰逢 ...

印度央行六名货币政策委员会成员一致投票决定将回购利率维持在5.25%，符合彭博调查中多数经济学 家的预期。政策立场保持中性，表明央行可能在一段时间内继续按兵不动。 央行决定公布后，卢比保持小幅涨势。印度政府债券扩大跌势，因央行未宣布任何新的流动性措施，10 年期债券收益率上涨多达6个基点至6.70%。 印度储备银行周五决定维持基准利率不变，在美印贸易协议缓解增长担忧后选择观望。这一决定反映出 央行对当前政策设定的满意，认为经济增长正在增强且通胀保持温和。 央行行长Sanjay Malhotra在讲话中表示，"贸易协议的成功达成对经济前景是个好兆头"。印度政府高级 官员本周表示，经济增长可能超过其对下一财年最高7.2%的预测。 据新华社，特朗普说，他和莫迪达成一项双边贸易协议。美国将把对印度商品加征的所谓"对等关税"税 率从25%降至18%，立即生效，印度同时降低对美关税和非关税壁垒。这一意外的贸易协议提振了这个 亚洲第三大经济体的增长前景。 贸易协议与财政刺激提振信心 特朗普此前宣布将对印度商品的关税从50%降至18%，这一大幅下调显著改善了市场预期。作为协议的 一部分，印度总理莫迪同意停止购买俄罗斯石油，并 ...