Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains that its current monetary policy is effective in controlling inflation without causing economic recession, with key deposit rates held steady at 2% after a series of rate cuts since June 2024 [1][2]. Monetary Policy - ECB's key deposit rate has been held at 2% for three consecutive meetings, following a total reduction of 2 percentage points from a historical high of 4% starting in June 2024 [1]. - The ECB's recent policy decisions are aligned with the eurozone's inflation rate reaching the target of 2%, supported by stronger-than-expected GDP growth in Q3 [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's inflation rate slightly increased to 2.2% in September, primarily driven by rising service prices, but overall inflation remains manageable [4]. - The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI rose from 51.2 in September to 52.5 in October, marking the highest level in 29 months and indicating robust economic expansion [4][5]. Employment Trends - Employment growth in the eurozone accelerated to its highest level in 16 months, driven by increased hiring in the service sector, despite ongoing layoffs in manufacturing [5]. Risks and Uncertainties - The ECB acknowledges uncertainties in the economic outlook, including global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions, which could impact future inflation forecasts [2][3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage strategy: Suspended [7] - Option strategy: short put [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the tight supply at the mine end and the continuously low TC prices remain unchanged. Overseas smelters are exploring new processing fee pricing logics, and China's non - ferrous metal supply association has proposed setting an upper limit on some non - ferrous metal smelting capacities. The positive factors on the demand side are mostly at the expected level, and actual consumption may not be outstanding. The November strategy is mainly to buy hedging on dips, with the buying range recommended between 85,500 yuan/ton and 86,000 yuan/ton. Selling hedging can be considered when the price approaches 89,000 yuan/ton [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Market**: On November 6, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 85,550 yuan/ton and closed at 86,320 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 86,320 yuan/ton and closed at 85,690 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Market**: SMM's spot electrolytic copper was quoted between 85,660 and 86,330 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 30 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 5 yuan from the previous day. The market transaction briefly recovered, but overall it was still weak [2] - **Important Information**: The U.S. federal government shutdown led to the suspension of official inflation data release, causing concerns among some Fed officials about monetary policy. Some Fed officials are hesitant about further interest rate cuts due to high inflation and lack of data [3] Mining End - Kenadyr Metals Corp.'s Adelita copper - gold - silver project obtained all necessary permits and a 20 - year mining license. The first - phase exploration will start in November [4] - LundinMining's Q3 2025 production data showed copper output of 87,353 tons, gold output of 37,763 ounces, and nickel output of 2,724 tons. The company is promoting multiple growth plans to achieve its strategic goals [4] - The border between Zambia and Tanzania reopened, restoring the flow of copper - related goods on an important trade corridor [4] Smelting and Import - The U.S. Pumpkin Hollow restarted to strengthen supply - chain security, aiming to reduce the country's dependence on copper imports [5] - Codelco lowered its 2025 copper production forecast to 1.31 - 1.34 million tons but still plans to exceed last year's output. It aims to produce 1.7 million tons by 2030 [5] Consumption - Shandong Province's plan focuses on breaking through key technologies in high - performance copper alloys and other fields, and promoting the R & D and industrialization of high - end copper products [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 75 tons to 134,475 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,332 tons to 43,893 tons. On November 6, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 203,300 tons, a change of 3,200 tons from the previous week [6] Data Table - The table shows various copper - related data such as prices, premiums, inventories, and spreads from different time points including November 7, 2025, November 6, 2025, October 31, 2025, and October 8, 2025 [25]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors have been rotating rapidly recently, with technology growth remaining the market's main line. In the long - term, the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding treasury bonds, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is short - term positive for the bond market sentiment. In the medium term, the bond market in the fourth quarter is mainly affected by the fundamentals, the implementation time of the new fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. The overall bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. - For precious metals, the release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations requires a certain period. In the loose monetary policy cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper prices are expected to be supported; aluminum prices may be strong in the short - term; zinc and lead are expected to be strong in the short - term; nickel requires short - term observation; tin is expected to oscillate; and the performance of other metals also varies according to their respective fundamentals [12][14][17][18][20]. - In the black building materials sector, steel demand has entered the off - season, but future demand may recover. Iron ore prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Glass may oscillate narrowly, and soda ash is expected to be weak and oscillating. The black sector is not pessimistic in the long - term [35][37][39][44]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different strategies. For example, rubber is recommended for short - term long trading; crude oil is recommended for a low - buying and high - selling range strategy; methanol and urea are recommended for observation; and other products also have corresponding trading suggestions based on their fundamentals [56][58][59][61]. - In the agricultural products sector, for pigs, the strategy is to go short on rallies; for eggs, it is expected to be strong in the short - term; for soybean meal, it is recommended to go short on rebounds; for oils, the strategy depends on palm oil production; for sugar, it is recommended to short after the rebound weakens; and for cotton, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [81][83][85][87][90][92]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: Solid - state batteries, hydrogen energy storage and other new energy storage technologies are accelerating development. A 70 - billion - yuan fund is planned for the "debt - assumption" acquisition of polysilicon platform enterprises. The Ministry of Commerce responded to issues related to Nexperia. Tianci Materials will supply electrolyte products to Zhongchuang Xinhang and Guoxuan High - tech [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors rotate rapidly, and technology growth is the main line. The policy supports the capital market, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On November 5, the Ministry of Finance issued 4 billion US dollars of sovereign bonds in Hong Kong. The central bank conducted 92.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is short - term positive for bond market sentiment. In the fourth quarter, the bond market is affected by fundamentals, etc., and is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 0.06%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.11%. Fed hawkish officials expressed concerns about inflation. Gold and silver prices fluctuated within a range [8]. - **Strategy**: In the loose monetary policy cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Due to the weak US labor market, copper prices oscillated and declined. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories also changed [11]. - **Strategy**: With the easing of concerns about the US government shutdown and the improvement of the Sino - US trade situation, copper prices are expected to be supported. The supply of refined copper is expected to be tight, and reference price ranges are provided for Shanghai copper and LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices fluctuated due to supply concerns. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic social inventories of aluminum ingots and rods changed [13]. - **Strategy**: The production of electrolytic aluminum has increased, and the supply - side disturbances are expected to support aluminum prices, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose slightly, and LME zinc declined. Domestic and overseas inventories and other data changed [15]. - **Strategy**: Domestic zinc mine inventory declined, and smelting profits decreased. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index declined slightly, and LME lead rose. Domestic and overseas inventories and other data changed [18]. - **Strategy**: Lead ore inventory declined, and downstream demand weakened. But due to positive macro events, Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short - term [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated at a low level. Nickel ore and nickel iron prices had different trends [19]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended. If nickel prices fall enough or risk appetite is high, long positions can be gradually established [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin rose. Supply was affected by raw material shortages, and demand from emerging fields provided support [22]. - **Strategy**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and it is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [23]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and production and inventory data changed [24]. - **Strategy**: The direct consumption of lithium carbonate is approaching the annual peak, and inventory depletion is accelerating. Attention should be paid to relevant factors, and a reference price range is provided [25]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and relevant prices and inventories changed [26]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, etc., with a reference price range provided [28]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract rose, and spot prices and raw material prices changed [29]. - **Strategy**: The stainless - steel market is weak, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and terminal demand [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, and relevant data such as position and inventory changed [31]. - **Strategy**: The cost provides support, and supply is tight, so the price is strongly supported [32]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed, and relevant inventory and position data also changed [34]. - **Strategy**: The steel market is in the off - season, but future demand may recover. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [35]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract rose slightly, and relevant data such as spot price and position changed [36]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to support levels [37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract rose, and soda ash also rose. Relevant inventory and position data changed [38][39]. - **Strategy**: Glass may oscillate narrowly, and soda ash is expected to be weak and oscillating [39][40]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly, and relevant technical analysis was provided [41]. - **Strategy**: Macro events did not drive up commodity valuations. The black sector's rebound has adjusted. Although there are "negative feedback" risks, the black sector is not pessimistic in the long - term [42][43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon changed, and relevant production, demand, and inventory data also changed [45][48]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to cost support and option games. Polysilicon supply is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to platform company progress [46][49]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. There are different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices [51][52]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on rubber in the short - term and partially build positions for hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE crude oil futures declined, and relevant refined oil futures had different trends. US inventory data changed [57]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to use a low - buying and high - selling range strategy and wait for OPEC's export signal [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed, and relevant basis and spread data also changed [59]. - **Strategy**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to observe [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices were stable, and relevant basis and spread data changed [60]. - **Strategy**: Urea prices are in a low - level consolidation, and it is recommended to observe [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined, and relevant cost, supply, and demand data changed [62]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling, and attention should be paid to relevant spreads [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices declined, and relevant cost, supply, and demand data changed [64]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PVC is strong, and demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol rose, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data changed [67]. - **Strategy**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [68]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA rose, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data changed [69]. - **Strategy**: Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is stable. Attention should be paid to the repair of processing fees [70][71]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene rose, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data changed [72]. - **Strategy**: PX load is high, and it is recommended to observe, mainly following the trend of crude oil [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE declined, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data changed [74]. - **Strategy**: The price of PE is expected to oscillate at a low level [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP declined, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data changed [76]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and it is expected to be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices fluctuated, and the situation of farmers and slaughterhouses changed [80]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go short on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse arbitrage positions [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices rose in some areas, and the supply and demand situation was stable [82]. - **Strategy**: Egg prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans declined, and domestic soybean meal prices rose [84]. - **Strategy**: Import costs oscillate. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [85]. Oils - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm oil exports and production increased. Domestic oil prices rebounded [86]. - **Strategy**: Palm oil prices may reverse if production decreases. It is recommended to be bearish before exports improve [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou sugar prices oscillated, and the production forecasts of Brazil and India changed [88][89]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short after the rebound of sugar prices weakens [90]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated, and relevant spot prices and acquisition indexes changed [91]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term due to weak fundamentals [92].

【导读】美科技股下跌，中概龙头逆市上涨； 马斯克万亿薪酬计划获批 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 大家早上好！昨夜今晨，又有很多大事发生。 11月6日，美国三大股指全线收跌，美国科技股大跌，中概龙头股逆市上涨。国际贵金属期货 普遍收跌。 美国三大股指全线收跌 美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌 0.84% ，报 46912.3 点；标普 500 指数跌 1.12% ，报 6720.32 点；纳指跌 1.9% ，报 23053.99 点。 | 46912.30 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | -398.70 - -0.84% 今开 47255.12 | | | | 上涨 | - - - - - - - - - - - - 下跌 - - - - - | 19 | | 最高价 47359.29 | | | | 最低价 46787.44 市净率 | | | | △时 エロ ロレ | | | | 名称 代码 | | 물름 | 现价 | 涨跌 涨跌幅 - | 年初至今 | 时间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 赛富时(SALESFOR CRM | ...

11月6日，美国三大股指全线收跌，美国科技股大跌，中概龙头股逆市上涨。国际贵金属期货普遍收跌。 美国三大股指全线收跌 美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.84%，报46912.3点；标普500指数跌1.12%，报6720.32点；纳指跌1.9%，报23053.99点。 标普500(SPX) 11-06 16:20:01 昨收 6796.29 成交额 0.00 6720 今开 6787.59 成交量 0 -75.97 -1.12% 上涨 337 164 下跌 1 本留 29.0 最高价 6796.68 -0.22% 市盈率 近20日 最低价 6707.51 今年来 14.26% 市净率 5.48 સ્ત્ર B4 周K 月K 更多 日K 五日 叠加 6885.07 1.31% 6707.51 -1.31% 16:00 09:30 道琼斯工业平均(DJI) 11-06 16:20:01 | 46912.30 | | --- | | -398.70 - -0.84% 今开 0 | | 上涨 平盘 19 | | 最高价 47359.29 市盈率 | | 最低价 46787.44 市净率 | | ANT THE DU DU ...

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.84%, the S&P 500 dropping by 1.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing by 1.90% [1][2] - European markets also faced downturns, with the FTSE 100 down by 0.42%, the DAX 30 down by 1.19%, and the CAC 40 down by 1.38% [2] Economic Indicators - Concerns over the job market intensified, with US companies laying off a total of 153,074 workers in October, a 183% increase from September and nearly three times the number from the same month last year, marking the highest October layoffs since 2022 [3] - The US non-farm employment decreased by 9,100 in October, following a previous increase of 33,000 [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's officials expressed mixed signals regarding future interest rate cuts, contributing to market volatility [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 70.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is 29.4% [4] Commodity Market - Domestic and international soybean prices have seen significant increases since October 15, driven by expectations of Chinese trade purchases [5] - The price of US soybeans reached a 15-month high, surpassing 1,100 cents per bushel, with a notable increase in procurement rates for December shipments [5] - However, the current pricing dynamics suggest that US soybeans may lack competitiveness compared to Brazilian soybeans due to higher import costs [6] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that US soybean prices will remain strong, with attention on the USDA's November supply and demand report expected to lower projections for soybean yield, total exports, and final inventory [6] - The domestic soybean meal market faces dual pressures from high crushing volumes and overseas procurement hedging [6] - The outlook for soybean oil is less affected by US-China trade policies, primarily following the trends of the oilseed sector, with limited downside potential due to current low prices [7]

Group 1: Currency and Economic Policies - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced the addition of the Chinese Yuan as a settlement currency for its clearing house, set to launch in December 2025 [1] - The U.S. job market is facing challenges, with a reported decrease of 9,100 non-farm jobs in October, contrasting with a previous increase of 33,000 jobs [1] - The Chicago Fed President expressed concerns over the lack of key inflation data due to the government shutdown, indicating a need for caution in future interest rate decisions [1][2] Group 2: Central Bank Decisions - The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 4%, marking the first pause in its rate-cutting cycle since August of the previous year, amidst internal divisions regarding future rate cuts [2] - The Norwegian central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.00%, citing ongoing inflation concerns despite a slight decrease in core inflation [2] - Malaysia's central bank held its overnight policy rate steady at 2.75%, aligning with market expectations [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.84%, the S&P 500 down 1.12%, and the Nasdaq down 1.9% [4] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.083% [5] - International precious metal futures saw declines, with COMEX gold futures down 0.20% to $3,984.80 per ounce [5]

但芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比则表达了对降息路径的担忧。他称，由于政府停摆导致官方通胀数据暂时缺 失，决策者可能无法及时发现物价风险，这让他对继续降息"愈发不安"。古尔斯比强调，在缺乏关键信 息的情况下采取宽松政策存在风险。 当前，美国劳动力市场虽有降温迹象，但仍处于"总体健康"区间。哈马克预计到2026年初，失业率仅会 略高于长期均衡水平，她认为这进一步说明当前应优先控制通胀，而非过度担忧就业。如不及时遏制通 胀，长期高物价可能固化在经济中，造成更大成本。 智通财经APP获悉，周四，美联储官员就货币政策前景发表多项讲话，就当前货币政策走向释放出不同 信号。 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，当前通胀仍"过高"，并对经济构成的风险大于劳动力市场放缓。她强 调，货币政策应继续对通胀施压，并指出目前利率水平"几乎不具限制性"，暗示进一步降息可能过早。 哈马克预计，美国通胀最快也要在2026年之后一两年才能降至美联储2%的目标，这意味着美联储将连 续近十年未能实现物价稳定目标。她还透露，辖区内企业反馈成本压力正在回升，并计划陆续向消费者 转嫁价格。 与此同时，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表了相对鸽派的讲话。他表示，市场对"中性利率" ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储沃勒：稳定币不会对货币政策构成威胁。 ...

2026年美联储议息票委、克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克周四表示，通胀水平持续高企不利于美联储再次降 息，她担心货币政策可能没有做好应对当前通胀的准备。哈玛克表示，在上周的政策会议之后，我认为 货币政策几乎没有限制性，而且在我看来，目前应该采取进一步政策行动的理由并不明显。哈玛克称， 美联储继续面临高于其目标的通胀压力，而目前的货币政策设定对经济增长势头几乎没有限制作用。她 反对美联储上周降息的决定。哈玛克承认劳动力市场存在问题，但同时警告说，失业率仍然处于低位。 来源：滚动播报 ...